• [Bangkok Post] Rebels killed 115 teachers since 2004

  [Lekha Issara, from Ban Po Meng in tambon Kayuboko of Yala's Raman district, was killed on June 16, the latest teacher to fall victim to separatist attacks.
  
  She was the 115th teacher in the three southern border provinces to have been killed.]

  tags: insurgency

Posted from Diigo. The rest of my favorite links are here.

The Nation with an article where the sub-heading is "Boost for Democrat hopes of breakthrough in Northeast"

The unstinting welcome for Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva in Buri Ram yesterday has raised the Democrat Party's hopes of planting its flag in the stronghold of Newin Chidchob, a core leader of its coalition partner Bhum Jai Thai Party.

Though Abhisit's choice of Buri Ram as the first province on his tour of the northeastern region has aroused much controversy and conflict within his party, colleagues were confident the visit would boost his popularity, which is already high there.

Wongnongtaey, a senior figure in the ruling Democrat Party, described the trip as "very satisfactory" given the warm welcome the prime minister got from the locals.

Abhisit, however, said only: "The inspection of the area was fine" when questioned by reporters after returning to Bangkok in the evening.

Newin did not show up while Abhisit was in the province. Abhisit said Newin had not needed to as they had kept in phone contact.

A source close to Abhisit said Newin had stayed away because he did not want to be seen as trying to steal the show or invite criticism that the PM was visiting Newin's stronghold to boost his clout.

Democrat Party Ubon Ratchathani MP Supachai Srila said the party estimated that Abhisit's job-approval rating in the northeastern region was more than 70 per cent and the party was expected to win at least 15 parliamentary seats in the region in the next general election.

BP: Seriously? 70% his nationwide ratings are not even 70%. Talking up your chances can be expected, but this is just hyperbole. On the Democrat's chances in the Northeast, Korn said it best at the FCCT last year:

Question by Jonathan Head of BBC to Korn: Why are the Democrats always unable to win more votes in the Northeast?

Answer by Korn: I can tell you what is not the issue. People like to divide the camps into rural and urban. The majority of the southern voters are rural. The popularity of Thaksin in the North and Northeast is undeniable. It is also undeniable that traditionally they have been less politically active then southerners. It is also undeniable that money politics is less prevalent. We we have less money than PPP. However I agree with Chris [Baker], money "is the price you pay to play the game but it doesn't dictate whether if you win or lose". "If a candidate today in Loei runs under the Democrat banner for him to try to win he would need to spend two or three times more than his PPP opponent in order to win and even then he still might lose.

This is exactly what happened in the last election. "A number of former TRT MPs defected to Puea Paendin and they outpsent PPP three to one and they still lost". This goes along way to confirming what Chris said, but money is no longer determinative of your success. What Thaksin did was to make that connection and make it directly relevant to his target group. We are less afraid to compete against vote-buying than the buying of MPs. I still believe at the end of the day that if you sold your vote it is still your decision in the ballot box. However, it would be very ineffective for the Democrats to buy a Northeastern MP. Simply at the end of the day we cannot go against the will of the people and no amount of money will help

BP: To be honest, BP is unsure on what the long-term gain will be for the Dems by Abhisit's visit to Buriram. There is some limited short-term gain, but just look at the photo which accompanies The Nation's article with all the people lined up in a straight line along the road. They are just standing where they have been told to stand. Also see this video from Matichon, particularly the last couple of minutes, and see the lack of emotion on people's faces as Abhisit speaks.

Yes, Newin stayed away, but the visit was already associated with Newin and Bhum Jai Thai (Interior Minister and BJT Thai leader was right next to Abhisit).

The idea of Abhisit visiting the Northeast is a good idea on many levels, but it is the choosing of Buriram which makes the least sense politically. Yes, for security it makes sense, but even Surin or some other BJT province would be better and they could have ensured security given the thousands of security staff. Why not Ubon Ratchathani where the Democrats have a couple of MPs (it is the province on the right-hand side of the map next to Laos and Cambodia)? There would have been no link to Newin or Bhum Jai Thai. Wouldn't this have helped the Democrat's brand more? There best chance is not up the upper Northeast, it is the urban areas in the lower Northeast.* Not all the papers reported the visit as The Nation did, see Thailand Politics' post.

*Yes, yes, Buriram is part of the lower Northeast, but this is Newin country. At the 2007 General Election, the top 3 vote-getters in Buriram Constituency 1 where PPP candidates and all 3 got in the 76,000-79,000 range. As later in The Nation's article notes, this is the Constituency where the Democrats see they have a "very good chance" of winning, but the highest-placing Democrat in 2007 received only 18,500 votes. The only chance they have is if Newin hands the seat to them.

• [AFP] Myanmar ophans flee to uncertain refuge in Thailand

  [A sudden offensive against ethnic Karen rebels by Myanmar's military junta has caused what aid groups say is the biggest exodus of refugees from Myanmar since 1997, with some 4,000 people fleeing for safety since the start of June.
  
  Just weeks ago the group of 96 destitute orphans fled their children's home in Myanmar to the sound of mortar shells and crossed into Thailand.]

  tags: Burma

• [AFP] Thailand bans protests in Phuket at ASEAN meeting

  ["I am telling all parties.... No kind of rally is allowed in Phuket. We will not designate an area for demonstration, we will not allow protest representatives to show up or mount a road blockade -- even peaceful rallies are not allowed," defence minister General Prawit Wongsuwon told reporters.]
  
  BP: Slight overkill?

  tags: no_tag

Posted from Diigo. The rest of my favorite links are here.

• [Bangkok Post] Mingkwan: Thai PM must be economic expert

  [In the midst of economic crisis, Thailand will need the government leader who has expertise in economic and capability to tackle the pressing problems of the country, former deputy prime minister and commerce minister, Mingkwan Saengsuwan, said on Friday morning.
  
  His remark was made during a seminar on “Clear the Country’s Debt, Create Income for the People” held this morning at a hotel in Chiang Mai by the opposition Puea Thai Party.]
  
  BP: He is saying, pick me! Reports that Puea Thai will keep some figurehead until closer to the election as they are worried about another party ban/dissolution. Mingkwan seems to be putting his hand up.

  tags: no_tag

Posted from Diigo. The rest of my favorite links are here.

• [Bangkok Post] Thaksin Does the South Pacific

  "Ousted prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra flew to the Pacific islands this week, a Tongan government official says.
  
  "He was here on Tuesday," the Tongan official, who did not wish to be named, said yesterday, adding he understood Thaksin left on Wednesday for Fiji.
  
  "He talked to someone at foreign affairs, who looked after him."
  
  The official did not give any further information on the purpose of the visit."

  tags: thaksin

Posted from Diigo. The rest of my favorite links are here.

A few weeks ago PAD's official English language mouthpiece TANN had an op-ed as follows:

We must try to purge Thailand of corruption, particularly among politicians so any laws that do that must be supported. It may seem like the politicians are being picked on by these nitty-gritty laws but anything to keep them from dipping into the cookie jar. And enough already with the excuse that they forgot they have these shares. If they can't be responsible for getting their financial affairs in order before assuming office, how can we trust them with our future? Politics is not child's play so politicians have to beware of what they're getting into and get their house in order. That means washing their hands off any shares in private companies. It's simple enough!

The Nation:

The Election Commission received reports alleging that the wife of Foreign Minister Kasit Piromya holds shares in Bangkok Expressway Plc, EC secretary-general Suthiphon Thaveechaiygarn said Thursday.

The EC was due to meet and decide on the case next Thursday, Suthiphon said.

BP: So does his wife hold shares?

From a press release from the lese majeste complaint against the FCCT with some help from an Englishman. Key excerpt:

In addition to the charges under article 112 of Thai Criminal Law further charges are to be filed this day against Thaksin Shinawatra, Jakrapob Penkhair, Veera Musikapong, Nattawoot Saikuea, Jatuporn Prompan, Marwaan Macan-Makar, Jonathan Head, other FCCT directors and UDD members that are implicated in crimes against the nation. Criminal Code articles 107, 113, 114, 116, 133, 135/1, 210, 213, 215, 217, 220, 288 and 289 are all used and each of the accused will have at least 2 or more of the aforementioned articles filed against them. Instant action is demanded as the cases expose a co-ordinated gang of conspirators committing acts of treason and concealment that not only threaten the Kingdom of Thailand and her national security but also insult Her Majesty Queen Elizabeth II and the constitutional monarchy of the United Kingdom of Great Britain that she reigns (not rules). Her Majesty Queen Elizabeth II is protected by article 133 of Thai Criminal Law.
...
Many British nationals were shocked and outraged at how Mr Jakrapob rudely lashed out at Her Highness Queen Elizabeth II from the FCCT stage stating amongst other things that Tony Blair had put her in her place, Mr Jakrapob was questioned by a British national and forced to concede that like the presenter of the event he had very poor knowledge regarding the Great British Monarchical Democracy and that most of what he knew he learned by watching a movie. Mr Jakrapob arrogantly stated that Thaksin only had some loyalty for the monarchy.

BP: Come on friendly farang translator and ex-FCCT member, did u need to bring QEII into this? The Queen is available on DVD in department stores in Bangkok, you know? You are not going to take away our ability to mock Charles, also covered under Section 133, are you?

Will someone make a complaint against The Nation? If so, would Thanong and Co. finally conclude that a rethink of the law related to defamation of the royal family and heads of state is needed?

Ok, ok, this excerpt also can't be missed:

FCCT Board Further Charged with Article #210 “Criminal Conspiracy to destabilize National Security”

This means that the FCCT has acted as a “Den of Conspirators” or more literally as a “Brothel of Treacherous Criminals”. One article in this group of laws has in the past been used against Chinese Triad organizations that threatened the nation and now similar articles in this case apply to the FCCT, this means that directors involved in acts that destabilize national security are by legal definition Criminals; not Correspondents.

BP: BP needs a drink to read the rest of it...

This cracks BP up to "[a]lthough due to the dissemination efforts of the FCCT board the content is widely known...". Does he not comprehend that the LM complaint against Jakrapob initially spread news of what Jakrapob said? Otherwise, it would have been just to a footnote in history. Aren't "our protectors" further helping the distribution of this material?

UPDATE: Just saw that Fonzi blogged on this last week.

Last week, Dr Pavin Chachavalpongpun had an op-ed in the Bangkok Post making some valid criticism of Thaksin's foreign policy, but then concluding:

Under the Abhisit administration, Thai foreign policy has undergone an extreme makeover. The Democrat-led government has rejected Thaksin's business-first mentality and re-introduced a seemingly principle-based foreign policy. This time principle, not profit, represents the mainstay of Thai diplomacy.

BP: Remember those words "extreme makeover" and "principle-based foreign policy".

Op-ed continues:

By denouncing Thaksin's past initiatives, the current government hopes it would also de-legitimise his foreign policy - a much-needed strategy to alienate Thaksin further from Thai political circles.

BP: Wasn't it a principled-based foreign policy? Or is it really just past of a strategy?

Op-ed continues:

Members of the academia and local media seem to have embraced Mr Abhisit's new direction in Thai foreign policy. His government has spent the past six months fixing the country's diplomatic missteps caused by Thaksin and his cronies.

BP: That members of academic and the local media would embrace someone other than Thaksin is hardly surprising.

Op-ed continues:

Thailand's cosy relations with her immediate neighbours, during the Thaksin years, were mostly built on personal relations, and sometimes did not necessarily reflect national interests. The Abhisit administration has re-invented Thai foreign policy to become more accountable, especially in the year Thailand is chairing Asean.

Because his government has no record of civilian supremacy, injecting a democratic principle in foreign policy might just redeem a sense of legitimacy it sorely needs in these hours of political turbulence.

Last month, the government issued a statement, on behalf of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, voicing grave concern at the trial of Aung San Suu Kyi, in which she is charged with violating her house arrest rules by allowing American John Yettaw into her residence. Thailand saw the need to toughen its stance and that of Asean vis-a-vis the Burmese junta to prove the country's respect for democracy - a position extolled by US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton.

BP: It has been fair to say there has been a shift in the rhetoric in Thailand (which BP does agree with), but Thailand took this position as the head of ASEAN. ASEAN itself has been slowly moving towards a harder line on Burma over the last 10 years. Is the new government approach an "extreme makeover"? An extreme makeover would be to deny Burma the natural resource revenue, impose sanctions, and/or do something which substantially affects the Burmese junta. A change in rhetoric is arguably a step in the right direction, but it is not some extreme makeover.

Op-ed continues:

Burma's response to the Thai statement was predictable. It reproached Asean's statement and criticised Thailand for breaching the non-interference rule. What followed was the Burmese army's attacks on the Karen National Union which disturbed the Thai-Burmese border by the influx of Burmese refugees fleeing the fighting, probably as punishment for Thailand's hard-line policy towards Rangoon.

BP: So it launched the response on the KNU to "punish" Thailand? The Economist's take:

The reasons for the junta’s sudden haste are typically murky. It is preparing for parliamentary elections next year, the first since an annulled 1990 poll, and wants around 17 ethnic rebel groups that have signed ceasefires to take part. The Karen National Union (KNU), the movement’s political wing, is a holdout. The generals, who want to consolidate power and neutralise armed threats, have proposed turning ethnic insurgents into border guards, under their command. They may reckon that the KNU can be similarly corralled. But a crushing military defeat would do just fine.

The offensive also appears timed to divert attention from the trial of Aung San Suu Kyi, the detained opposition leader. Thailand’s foreign minister, Kasit Piromya, has been more strident than most in publicly dressing down the junta about this farce, which is due to resume on June 26th. Thai diplomats suspect that its prickly neighbour is stirring trouble on the border as a poke in the eye.

BP: Surely Burmese domestic considerations make more sense than launching the offensive just to spite Thailand.

On Cambodia:

With Cambodia, Thailand may have continued to play a nationalistic card in the Preah Vihear temple case. At a deeper level, what the Abhisit government has done in "de-personalising" Thai policy towards Cambodia should be commended. Many Thai-Cambodian shady businesses were reportedly promoted by the Thaksin regime. This explains why Thai policy has often been held hostage by Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen.
...
More recently, Hun Sen confronted the Thai leadership, suggesting that Thailand should give up its Asean chairmanship because of its escalating domestic situation.

He himself is a devout nationalist, often speaking about the use of force against Thailand to protect so-called Cambodian sovereignty. His love for Thaksin remains evident.

BP: His love for Thaksin? Where was that love when Hun Sen cynically whipped up tensions that led to the ransacking of the Thai Embassy in Cambodia?

Op-ed continues:

The latest Thai opposition to the UN declaration at the World Heritage meeting in Spain, with a proposal that the grounds of the disputed temple be placed under joint Thai-Cambodian maintenance, could be perceived not only as a defence of Thai interests, but also a bold move in Thai diplomacy which refuses to become too elastic in accordance with the preferences of Cambodian leaders like in the past.

BP: If you are going to criticise Hun Sen for being a nationalist, how can you then defend the current government's position in relation to Preah Vihear? Is it also not nationalist? A week before Thailand decided to take its current position in relation to Preah Vihear, Abhisit went to Phnom Penh and had a bilateral with Hun Sen. He has conceded he never mentioned to Hun Sen that he was about to take this position. Is that really good diplomacy? Good diplomacy would mean you signal the position you are about to take so the other side is not surprised. This helps prevent a war of words in the media.

The government has taken a nationalist position for domestic political gain. There is nothing principled about the new government's foreign policy towards Cambodia.

• [Reuters] Bomb kills soldier in Thai south

  [A soldier was killed by a bomb and a Muslim civilian was shot dead in the latest violence in Thailand's restive south, police said Thursday.
  
  The bomb was detonated as troops travelled in a pickup on a patrol in the town of Yarang in Pattani province. Five soldiers were wounded.]

  tags: insurgency

Posted from Diigo. The rest of my favorite links are here.