1:00 am Sorry for the lack of coverage but have been at the airport and on a plane all day, but will have a post up soon summarising news articles from Thai Rath and Matichon on the bombs - nothing else to do on the plane and airport lounge.
11:45 am According to Channel 3, there are 2 theories on who is behind the violence from different academics from southern Thailand.
One view is that it is more likely to be undercurrents because the nature of explosions was not very strong (i.e the number of deaths was not great). Two, because the southern terrorists are not acquainted with Bangkok and it would be difficult for them to stage the attacks.
Another view is that it is most likely the southern terrorists. First, the kind of explosive used with a timer, the shrapnel of 1 cm nail and timing of the events on the evening of 31 Decembers was to cause maximum damage. Says that it is unusual for political movements to use such violence (i.e normally just 1 or 2 small grenades to kill a specific person or go to after a target). Second, the coordinated nature of the bombs also suggests the southern terrorists. Suggested 2 groups of persons involved (one for Victory Monument, Saphan Kwai etc; second, for Klong Toei and other targets on Rama IV road) . Says this would match the modus operandi of the southern terrorists.
However, both groups said that no conclusions should be drawn on who was behind it and the authorities should not rule any group out.
Gen. Sonthi is coming back from the Haj in Sauda Arabia on an urgent flight and will be back this afternoon.
Kooky Kasit Piromya Lashes Out at His Enemies
2 hours ago
A mosque in Chiang Mai was bombed on 1 January. See here. This further confuses the issue.
Was it done by the undercurrents, who wanted to lash out equally at all religious/social groups?
Was it done by muslim insurgents, who wanted to dispell rumors that they were behind the Bangkok bombings?
Was it done by normal people who suspected that muslim insurgents were behind the Bangkok bombings, and therefore wanted revenge?
Was it done by the ISOC/military, who wanted to make it look like the work of the Bangkok bombers, and therefore make people think that the undercurrents were behind the bombings?
ScandAsia's Gregers Moller has removed his analysis after his site was taken offline (censored?):
"The website was temporarily taken off the air, and I believe it was because the rationale offered. It is now deleted and the website is now again available."
What is the junta suppressing?
Anyone investigating a crime has to ask for the motives. What does the old power clique have to gain from killing innocent civilians? Nothing but self-destruction.
It looks more like a nihilistic act of wanton terrorism, the hallmark of the southern "insurgents".
The criminal investigation should not take long as several bombs were defused and it should be possible to trace the materials used. Then again, the investigation is handled by the Thai police and the military...
Could somebody with a Pantip.com account check out this?
I don't have an account, but somebody tells me that 3 "hidden" video cameras at Khae Lai intersection went offline right before the explosion. Sounds interesting...
It's official: Surayud has exonerated the Southern insurgents and is laying the blame on the "old power clique." He didn't cite any evidence though.
Interesting to note that after meeting with ISOC the previous evening, Surayud admitted he had no idea who was behind the bombings.
How does Surayud know that it wasn't the Southern insurgents?
The Thai Prime Minister explains, "I don't think they would come here as they could get lost in Bangkok."
See here.
Patiwat: Thanks for that. Have you seen Crispin's article. It is an interesting read.
Crispin's article is right on, except for this one interesting quote: "Significantly, the bombs were positioned in places and ways that aimed to minimize civilian injuries and casualties, and appeared to avoid venues were foreign casualties would compel foreign embassies to launch their own independent investigations into the attacks."
I don't know how the Best Seafood Restaurant at Pratunam intersection could be bombed without expectation that foreigners would be hit. That place is a tourist trap.
But he makes a good point about motivation. "Rationale undercurrents" would struggle to find a motivation for the bombings, but "evil undercurrents" would hurt people just for the heck of it. And the junta has certainly tried to give the impression that anybody affiliated with the previous government was evil.
And wasn't a device planted in (presumably very busy) Buddy Bar on Khao San Road? M4 booster and shrapnel are not only making a statement, they are meant to kill. I still think southern terrorists are the perpetrators, even the Nation quotes the IRK initials left at several sites. But the junta won't admit their folly even if OBL takes responsibility on Al-Jazeera.
dirk, do you have a link to the article that identifies initials at the bombing sites? I can't seem to find it.
nix that, dirk - I found it.
Whilst we may not always agree on everything political, I would like to commend you on your excellent and dedicated coverage of this event.
Something simply does not add up for any perspective on this event. It is not reminiscent of any action undertaken by the southern separatists , and yet it is seemingly totally unhelpful to the "undercurrents".
It's disturbing how quickly a police force that carries little trust from its own citizens has reached a conclusion about the instigators, and a very convenient propaganda conclusion at that.
I have great pity for the victims of these attacks and whoever is behind them is evil. Not the best start to 2007 for Thailand, let's hope it improves.
Patiwat: The Chiang Mai mosque bombing is confusing.
From Crispin's article:
"Significantly, the bombs were positioned in places and ways that aimed to minimize civilian injuries and casualties, and appeared to avoid venues were foreign casualties would compel foreign embassies to launch their own independent investigations into the attacks."
In addition to your comments, weren't the last two bombs placed close to the largest NYE celebrations in Thailand. There is a very large concentration of people and if the celebrations hadn't have been called off there would have been massive panic.
Dirk: The whole ScandAsia site is inaccessible where I am now. I am not sure what has happened there. Agree about the shrapnel and M4 booster.
Crispin does have a point though and that is that not all of the points were utilised to cause maximum casualties. The same is true for the southern border provinces where the terrorists are terrorising people by showing them the ability to attack anywhere with coordinate bombs at anytime.
You also have another possibility that two different groups carried out the attacks. One terrorist group carried out the 6 pm attacks and another terrorist group the midnight attacks (Suan Lum, Khao San, Central World and Pattaya). I am of the opinion that the 6pm attacks were more for location/capability/capacity reasons. The terrorists wanted to say "look what we can do". It wasn't to cause maximum damage and wasn't particularly targeted at any group.
The midnight attacks with Khao San Road, Central World, and Pattaya seems aimed at places where there were large numbers of people, particularly tourists (both domestic and international).
Whilst we may not always agree on everything political, I would like to commend you on your excellent and dedicated coverage of this event.
Thank you.
It's disturbing how quickly a police force that carries little trust from its own citizens has reached a conclusion about the instigators, and a very convenient propaganda conclusion at that.
For me it is disturbing on how publicly they are dismissing all options except for Thaksin. Then again, what the Thai government says in public is often different from what it does in private so I am still hopeful we will find out a lot more on what happened.
Perhaps the strongest arguments favoring a "rogue element" hypothesis is Crispin's point that not all of the targest were utilised to cause maximum casualties. The point BP makes has been on my mind too: "The same is true for the southern border provinces where the terrorists are terrorising people by showing them the ability to attack anywhere with coordinate bombs at anytime." Is this not a defining characteristic of attacks by the insurgency?
I'm not sure I agree that "not all of the targest were utilised to cause maximum casualties." The Victory Monument bus stops and CenterWorld get tons of pedestrian traffic, especially during the New Year. Suan Lum Night Bazaar and Best Seafood are highly popular among the tourist crowd.
Maybe the other bomb sites weren't as high profile, but it seems to me like the bombs were designed to hurt as many people as possible for a 5-10kg bomb.
Patiwat those militants of Yala, Narathiwat and Pattani can operate only effectively in their own provinces where they get support and logistics from their muslim communities. These militants are less effective if they venture farther even within the Southern region . . so PM Surayud was right when he said "those militants would literally get lost" in Bangkok - - meaning without logistics and Bangkok muslims support, the Southern militants as suspects in that COORDINATED 8-bombing attack is much diminished. Had it been a one bomb attack, yes maybe.
General Sonthi's camp is also off the hook. Because since they are already in power, under martial law, they can be as heavy-handed as they wish and it is stupid to shoot themselves in the foot(by this NYE bombing).
You can make a case of some crazy money speculator group looking for some windfall (Baht devaluation effect) being behind the bombing but that is wild guessing.
So that leaves suspicion falling right into the Thaksin camp. The TRT is in disarray. Thaksin, family and cronies are facing many corruption/tax/extrajudicial inquiries. The Thaksin camp would wish to destabilize Surayud's interim government to hold off the investigations and to distract.
But my detective work stops at analyzing the motives. For real evidence, I leave that to Surayud and Sonthi.
Eddy, the coup makers have shot themselves in the foot so many times they have but bloody stumps.
It seems that the Thaksin camp has nothing to gain from the bombing except complete political annihilation and loss of all public support, and the junta will only tighten it's grip (tomorrow's Nation frontpage headline), delay elections, hold on to dictatorial power etc. There are rumours flying about Bangkok that there will be another coup to oust the "civilian" government by hardline CNS members like Saprang. Also, the puppet PM was today (Thursday) given powers to execute those who harm the country (without trial). It looks more and more like the junta has most to gain from the NYE events and the fact that they have not even a hint pointing to the perpetrators does not make them look more favourable.
Patiwat: I am not sure if you were referring to my comment here. You said:
I'm not sure I agree that "not all of the targest were utilised to cause maximum casualties." The Victory Monument bus stops and CenterWorld get tons of pedestrian traffic, especially during the New Year. Suan Lum Night Bazaar and Best Seafood are highly popular among the tourist crowd.
For the 6pm bombings, it is only the Victory Monument bombing where a number of people would be injured/killed. From the description of where the bomb was placed and having being a frequent bus user when I was in Bangkok, it was certainly not in the busiest area of Victory Monument, but nevertheless given the number of people who are always in the VM area people were going to be injured.
I just think that comparatively between the 6pm and the midnight bombings there are big differences - you seem to be of a similar view yourself.
Jotman: Is this not a defining characteristic of attacks by the insurgency?
Yes.
Eddy: There are a number of southern Muslims in Bangkok. I used to live in the Phayathai area of Bangkok - not that far from Phetburi sois 5 and 7. There is a significant Muslim community in this area including many from southern Thailand.
I am not completely convinced it was the southern terrorists, but I don't buy the argument they couldn't have carried out the attacks because they don't know Bangkok. Yes, it would have been difficult to carry out the attacks, but they have carried out coordinated bombings before - the Hat Yai bombings were seen to be undertaken by those who travelled to Hat Yai and back again.
If the "Thaksin camp" undertook the bombings in order to distract Surayud and the government from the investigations then they were surely mistaken. If anything the indications are that the CNS will be more hardline against Thaksin. Like others, including Red & White (who is not a Thaksin supporter) I am concerned that the authorities were too quick to blame the "old power". At first, Surayud took a very neutral line and then very quickly changed his tune. Then, he seemed to backtrack again.
..
absurd thought -
God of the Universe says
HAPPY NEW YEAR Infidels
ignore the threat of Jihad
just keep sleeping like sheep
..
the Southern militants as suspects in that COORDINATED 8-bombing attack is much diminished
Remember coordinated banks bombing?
General Sonthi's camp is also off the hook. Because since they are already in power
Thaksin was in power when "car-bomb" occur. Does that also make him "off the hook"?
The Thaksin camp would wish to destabilize Surayud's interim government to hold off the investigations and to distract.
Again, car-bomb does not seem to distract the request for investigation. However, Surayud does have a pending investigation on forest land. And I doubt if the investigation is started, he would be the only one to start dancing.
It is also a perfect excuse for CNS to tighten the grip on their control and empower their Gestapo.
However, I also do not think CNS is responsible for this. In my opinion, they merely turn crisis to opportunity and make statement that best benefit them. But may be desperate time need desperate measure?