Thanong Khanthong (yes, Thanong!) in The Nation:

First, his People Power Party has won 233 parliamentary seats out of 480, giving him a good chance to form the next coalition government. Second, the Criminal Court has sentenced Sondhi Limthongkul, his nemesis, to three years' imprisonment over a libel case against him. Third, if his Manchester City team prevail over Liverpool tomorrow, it would complete a triple triumph.

COMMENT: Ok, the game is on Sunday, but that is a minor point given to what is below.

The next item on the agenda of the Master of the Universe is to plot his return to Thailand after more than a year in exile. He would like Samak Sundaravej to form the next government and his people to be in all the key positions before he boards a flight home, possibly on Valentine's Day. Thousands of his supporters will greet him with red roses at the airport. "We all miss you dearly, Master," they would cry out from the top of their lungs.

Then perhaps it will be time to settle scores. The Master will not forgive Somsak Thepsuthin, who was quick to kowtow to the junta right after the coup; Dr Surakiart Sathirathai, who played a key role in creating Puea Pandin to fight PPP; and Dr Somkid Jatusripitak, who spoke against him when trying to join the Surayud government as a spokesman for economic sufficiency.

COMMENT: Not sure how much hatred towards Dr. Somkid, but Surakiart is certainly persona non grata. I imagine there are not nice feelings towards Somsak either. Settling scores will be difficult, but no amnesty means no Cabinet positions in a PPP-led government. Well, Thaksin can hardly be a Minister now so it is no skin off his nose.

General Sonthi Boonyaratglin, the coup leader, should have sleepless nights, as he is now a retired without any military back-up. General Anupong Phaochinda, the Army chief, appears to have distanced himself from him. Other members of the junta are also feeling sick to their stomachs.

Anupong, a key member of the Queen's Guard, is an exception. He has announced that he has taken the military back to the barracks to maintain political neutrality. By doing so, he is still a force to be reckoned with amid the polarisation in Thai politics and the looming political confrontation and turmoil. Anupong's power lies in his ability to maintain neutrality. Then he can act decisively if the political situation gets out of control.

COMMENT: Gen. Anupong still might be booted upstairs next year to become Supreme Commander - technically Supreme Commander is a higher position than Army C-in-C, but the real power is with the Army C-in-C. PPP will want to maintain some influence over the army. Thaksin acquiesced in 2005 and allowed Gen. Sondhi to become Army C-in-C and a fat lot of good that did him. The coup has made it necessary for a civilian government to exercise control over the army and not leave it up to Prem.

A week before the election, a military poll found that the PPP would win around 220 seats. The junta was deeply troubled over its failure to block the PPP in the North and Northeast.

The junta has miscalculated its strategy. It believed that if it could block the PPP money flow, it would be able to weaken the candidates of the Master of the Universe. Then the Puea Pandin Party, which got tacit support from the military, would get elected instead. Puea Pandin is a break-way bloc from Thai Rak Thai. About 30-40 of its members are ex-Thai Rak Thai.

Before the election, Puea Pandin was seen as a counter to the PPP in the Northeast, as it was expected to win 60-70 seats. The Democrats also got the blessings of the military to serve as the core of the new government. The party had decided not to campaign in the Northeast at all, leaving the whole field open to Puea Pandin and the PPP.

Puea Pandin had deep pockets. It spent heavily in this campaign. But something was wrong. The voters took the loot but they were not enthusiastic about the Puea Pandin candidates. They had already decided to vote for the PPP.

The Master of the Universe did not spend a lot of money in this campaign because he had already won their hearts and minds. His strategists knew how to mobilise and organise people at the grassroots level. There were reports that the campaign against the national referendum for the 2007 Constitution cost him even more.

The Master produced 10 VCDs during the campaign, each carrying his message about how the coup had damaged the Thai economy and hurt the pockets of the poor. If the people wanted his return to Thailand, they must vote PPP. The message was simple enough. In the last VCD, the Puea Pandin Party was portrayed as a traitor not to be trusted or voted for. As a result, Puea Pandin was routed, blowing away the chance of the Democrats forming the government. For if the PPP had only mustered less than 200 MPs, it would certainly have to serve as the opposition.

COMMENT: Finally, a newspaper takes on the myth that PPP's victory was through massive vote-buying. I am not saying that no vote-buying by PPP went on, but Puea Paendin was heavily financed by the elite. As Thanong states the money they spent per candidate would have far exceeded what PPP spent. There are a number of suspicions of where the money came from - certainly not Thaksin, but it was likely through corruption or even direct financing somehow. The money had to come from somewhere so if someone can find a source, not connected with the military/elite, for the very large amount of money they spent please do tell.

This is what makes the EC ridiculous if only PPP is punished.

What has Surayud Chulanont, the prime minister, been doing over the past year? He has virtually done nothing to educate the Northeastern and Northern people about the threat of Thaksinomics. He is only interested in killing time before getting out of office.

The Master of the Universe has only one last hurdle to overcome. Once again, it will be a battle with the judiciary. In 2001 he got off the hook in the assets concealment case in the Constitution Court. If he returns to Thailand this year, he will have to stand trial in the Supreme Court's political unit. There, we'll know the final fate of the Master of the Universe and the fate of the country.

COMMENT: What charges will they bring against Thaksin is the question? Just the Rachadaphisek land deal? I am still waiting for Thanong to explain about the threat of Thaksinomics. Is it its budget surpluses compared to budget deficits under sufficiency economy?

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