Negotiating with the Terrorists

Posted by Bangkok Pundit | 4/28/2007 03:22:00 PM

The Bangkok Post reports:

For the past several days, Defence Minister Boonrawd Somtas had been on a secret mission that is related to problems in the South, and is reporting directly to Prime Minister Surayud Chulanont.

"Gen Boonrawd held a meeting with leaders of an insurgent group," a source said on Friday without giving further details. "The meeting might be the outcome of cooperation between Gen Surayud and Malaysian Prime Minister Abdullah Ahmad Badawi," the source added. Earlier, the Malaysian prime minister had agreed to help initiate negotiations with insurgent groups. The source did not reveal where the meeting was held, saying only that the location was in Thailand, not in Malaysia's Kelantan state.

COMMENT: See my previous posts on negotiating here, here, here, and here.

Gen. Boonrawd is very close to Gen. Surayud, they were classmates together at the Armed Forces Preparatory School (Class 1).

Given previously, the government/military has not been negotiating with groups who are actually behind the violence, I wonder on the use of the words "an insurgent group". Is this the RKK (or whatever you want to call the main terorist group) or is it some old guy from PULO/Bersatu who has no control over the current group of younger terrorists? Unfortunately, the article doesn't tell us.


Phuyai at Sisao Theves residence and Banharn

Posted by Bangkok Pundit | 4/27/2007 11:53:00 PM

The Bangkok Post reports (cache):

Prime Minister Surayud Chulanont's recent move to invite the Council for National Security (CNS) chief Sonthi Boonyaratkalin to attend a cabinet meeting is unusual.

Gen Surayud's decision seems to confirm that a rift between the government leader and chief coup-maker exists.

Gen Sonthi reportedly is upset because he believes Gen Surayud, who is a former army chief, still considers him his subordinate. He believes he has moved on up the ladder, as the CNS chief with power to remove the prime minister.

Relations turned sour because Gen Sonthi felt he had been belittled by the prime minister.

As the government's performance failed to bring hope to the public, Gen Sonthi and key CNS figures share the common view that the council will be held responsible for the slow progress the government has made.

The CNS would have to take on responsibility after the government leaves office, as several CNS members would still be in government service. With the government and the CNS now reported to have different goals, speculation of a rift between them is rife.

Gen Sonthi recently discussed the problems with Chart Thai party leader Banharn Silpa-archa. He wanted Mr Banharn to help raise certain matters with a phuyai at Sisao Theves residence, so that the phuyai passes on to Gen Surayud the discomfort of the CNS and finds ways to patch up the differences between them.

The invitation of the CNS chief to attend the cabinet session was one of the measures designed to mend the soured relations between Gen Surayud and Gen Sonthi.

The CNS chairman admitted his relations with Gen Surayud have improved following talks mediated by the respected figure.

COMMENT: Umm, how many "phuyais" live in Soi Sisao Theves? Only one. I thought this phuyai was involved in politics and would never interfere in anything.

Anyway, what is Gen. Sonthi doing talking to Banharn? He has been quiet recently but seems to be talking to the right players. It was only last year there was talk of him becoming PM - from memory he was on the front cover of Matichon weekly. Will we see him return as PM again?


Our New Guardians : Elections are "evil"

Posted by Bangkok Pundit | 4/27/2007 11:42:00 PM

In an update to the below post our our guardians, the Nation reports on what the guardians think elections:

Former judge turned charter drafter Wicha Mahakhun yesterday hit back at scepticism over the constitution giving judges the power to select members of the senate and independent organisations, saying the judges had won the trust of His Majesty the King.

"We all know elections are evil, but [why do] many people still want to see history repeated?" Wicha told a public hearing on the draft charter held by the National, Economic and Social Advisory Council (Nesac) yesterday.

COMMENTS: Elections are evil? No wonder he was chosen to draft the new charter. 

"People, especially academics who want to see the constitution lead to genuine democracy, are naive," he said. "Electing senators is a problem, as seen in the past, so why don't people want judges to help select senators?

COMMENT: So how will judges select senators? You know what will happen is that they will together and have a vote. This is what is called an "election", but not like this junta lackey would understand that. But as long as it is done by the "guardians"

"I would like to recall HM the King's speech here. On April 9, His Majesty told the judges to perform their duties firmly and without caring what others might say. His Majesty said if the courts did not support good people, society could not survive. His Majesty said it was most imperative [for judges] to ensure justice," he said.

"Even HM the King places trust in the judges; would you condemn them?" he asked, adding that most people the drafters had met during their fieldwork wanted to see senators appointed at a Supreme Court meeting.

COMMENT: This is where the country is heading towards. You know what will happen is that you will start to get lese majeste charges against those who criticise judges.

Again, I will ask "who will guard the guardians?" The answer is no one, they will be a power unto themselves. With politicians you can throw them out of office. Our new guardians have more power than ever before. Will we even be allowed to criticise them?

Thanks to Patiwat for pointing out the article.


Quis custodiet ipsos custodes?

Posted by Bangkok Pundit | 4/26/2007 11:14:00 PM

Quis custodiet ipsos custodes? or in English, "who will guard the guardians?" is a fundamental question in political philosophy.

The problem of "who will guard the guardians?" is one of the primary arguments behind the need for a separation of powers as Wikipedia explains:

Never give ultimate power to any one group; the executive, legislative, or judicial; have the interests of each compete and conflict. Each group will then find it in its best interest to impede the functioning of the rest and this will keep ultimate power under constant struggle and, thereby, out of any one group's hands

In the Thai context, the problem of giving too much power to one group was seen as one the fundamental flaws of the 1997 Constitution. The argument was that the concentration of power in the executive, as existed under Thaksin, led to many abuses. The draft constitution aims to prevent this concentration of power in the executive as Thitinan recently stated:

"The first draft of the new charter is designed to prevent the monopolisation of Thai politics that was seen under overthrown prime minister, Thaksin Shinawatra's five-year rule," political commentator Thitinan Pongsudhirak noted in the ‘Bangkok Post' on Friday.

So what was the drafters solution? Give more power to the judiciary and bureaucrats to control the elected politicians. Here is an English translation from the Highlights of the Draft Constitution B.E. 2550 from the CDA: 

Members of the Senate will be free from the dominance of political parties since they will be selected from provinces and, separately, from occupational groups (Section 106), not through election which is prone to political meddling. With the proposed selection process, Thai politics will cease to be the exclusive preserve of elected politicians, but will belong to the people from diverse backgrounds, areas, occupations, and genders while opening up opportunities to the socially underprivileged as well (Section 108 paragraph two).

COMMENT: Yes, "political meddling" no need for pesky elections.

Here is Thitinan (cache):

A seven-member panel comprising the heads of two state agencies, anti-graft and election commissions along with three courts are to vet the senatorial appointments. The 160 appointed senators _ one for each of the country's 76 provinces and 84 others _ are supposed (but not guaranteed) to represent a diverse and balanced range of professions.

In turn, the Senate is tasked with endorsing the nomination and selection of the most senior members of these agencies. Such an arrangement may lead to quid-pro-quo outcomes and collusion in high places.

I have summarised the Senate provisions below:

From s106, there will be 160 Senators who will be appointed by HM the King from a recommendation/offer from the Selection Committee.

From s107, the Selection Committee shall comprise of the President of the Constitution Court, President of the Election Commission, President/Chairman of the National Counter Corruption Commission, Parliamentary Ombudsman, Auditor-General, one representative of the Supreme Court, and one representative of the Supreme Administrative Court.

From s108, the Selection Committee will select from the Senators as follows (1) select one appropriate person from each province from a pool of applicants, and (2) selection appropriate persons from names recommended/offered from various organisations (องค์กรต่าง ๆ) in the academic, private, government, professional, and other sectors.

In choosing the Senators, the Selection Committee shall take into account their knowledge and expertise or experience who will help carrying out the work of the Senate. When selecting those with knowledge, it should be knowledge from different fields. Also, equality of the sexes and giving opportunities from those lacked opportunities.

NOTE: Under s256, government officials can't be Senators so I assume what they mean by the "government sector" is retired government officials.

COMMENT: So will guard us from the guardians? As Thitinan states they choose each other and are accountable only to each other.

Even Ajarn Nidhi is quick to express doubts about putting too much faith in the judiciary:

"The judges, in terms of their mentality and style of work, are no different from other government officials. I'm criticising the courts in Thailand … I think the development of Thai judges cannot follow either domestic or global trends," Nidhi said. "The judges are no more progressive than other bureaucrats. I don't know if they're more astute."

 Thai Rak Thai is also not happy:

"They allow people to elect their own MPs: it's odd they don't trust them to elect their own senators. Let me ask whom you trust more: seven people comprising the president of the Constitution Court, the head of the Election Commission, the Ombudsman ... [etc]? How capable will they be, and what selection criteria will they use?" Pongthep [Thepkanjana, a caretaker deputy Thai Rak Thai Party leader] asked.

Suriyasai Katasila, secretary-general of the Campaign for Popular Democracy:

...the charter had both strengths and weaknesses but the task ahead was to raise the level of the people's participation in politics. He attacked the increased authority and role of the judiciary as a weak point of the charter.

"I don't believe the courts are the answer to a sustainable solution and don't believe the courts can be accountable under the charter."

An academic on one of the most serious problems behind the new powers which will be held by the judiciary:

"They are giving power to the courts and in the end things will not be negotiable, because they will claim to be doing it in the name of the King and those criticising the court may be held for contempt of court," said Naruemon Tabchumpon, a political scientist at Chulalongkorn University.

COMMENT: Courts are of the view that they are not subject to criticism and if you criticise them, you will be subject to contempt of court.

Finally, and far from least as AFP reports:

The party objected to the appointed Senate, the redrawing of constituencies, and an article which states that if political deadlock occurs, the prime minister must meet with Senate members and judges to resolve the crisis.

I have summarised section 68 below:

If there is a national crisis or a political situation where it is necessary, there shall be a meeting of the following, the PM, President of House of Representatives, President of the Senate, Leader of the Opposition, President of the Constitution Court, President of the Supreme Court, President of the Supreme Administrative Court, and President(s) of Independent Agencies under the Constitution, to consider ways to solve the problem.

COMMENT: This is it. Will they have a vote to decide? Is a simple majority needed or must it be a unanimous decision? The bureaucracy and the judiciary will dominate. Could they dissolve Parliament? What are the limits on their power?

What kind of "noble lie" will the judiciary and the bureaucrats be told?

The essential problem was first posed by Plato in the Republic, his work on government and morality. The perfect society as described by Socrates, the main character of the work, relies on laborers, slaves, and tradesmen. The guardian class is to protect the city. The question is put to Socrates, who will guard the guardians? or, who will protect us against the protectors? Plato's answer to this is: they will guard themselves against themselves. We must tell the guardians a noble lie. The noble lie will inform them that they are better than those they serve and it is, therefore, their responsibility to guard and protect those lesser than themselves. We will instill in them a distaste for power or privilege, they will rule because they believe it right, not because they desire it.


Economic Situation in Southern Thailand

Posted by Bangkok Pundit | 4/24/2007 01:24:00 AM

Traven, in a comment in this post stated:

Little of that progress trickled down to the ordinary southern Thai Muslim citizen. Indeed, that increased Muslim political representation that you talk about had a great deal more to do already comparatively wealthy Muslims conspiring with mainstream Thai parties to tap the exchequer for their own betterment.
....
So one has to ask, what progress?

COMMENT: That is a fair question. I suppose that depends on how you quantify "progress". In a previous post, I looked at "political progress", or perhaps more accurately on how a number of southern Muslims had obtained important political positions over the last 15 years. Again, you could argue, as Traven does, that little of the progress has trickled down to ordinary Thai Muslims, but wasn't at least partly due to Thai Muslims themselves choosing a bunch of money hungry politicians and re-electing them each time. Finally, for a variety of reasons voters did vote most of those politican's out of office in 2005. They had the power to do so before 2005, but didn't.

One type of progress which is much easier to quantify with statistics is economic progress which I will primarily look at in this post.

I will excerpt this article: Dr Srisompob Jitpiromsri and Panyasak Sobhonvasu,   "Unpacking Thailand's southern conflict: The poverty of structural explanations" Critical Asian Studies 38:1 (2006), p95-117, with some of my own commentary and other reports/statistics. The excerpt is from p102-104 and starts below:

According to the National Statistics Office (NSO), the populations of the three southern border provinces (Pattani, Yala, and Narathiwat) in 2003 amounted to about 1,803,306.Of the total population, 21.8 percent are Buddhists and 78.2 percent Muslims. A survey conducted in nine districts of the three southern provinces identifies various problems that local Muslim communities face. These include poverty, unemployment, lack of education, substandard infrastructure, inadequate supplies of land and capital, low quality of living standards, and other economic-related problems.

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Source: Dr Srisompob's article. Click on the image to enlarge - this applies to some other images below. 

The performance of the deep South’s economy has improved markedly in the past few decades. Between 1983 and 2003, for example, the gross provincial products (GPP) for Pattani rose from 7,840 million baht to 33,300 million baht, while those of Yala and Narathiwat increased from 6,745 million baht and 8,737 million baht to 24,437 million baht and 28,646 million baht, respectively. During the same period, the average per capita income of Pattani grew from 9,340 baht to 57,621 baht, while that of Yala and Narathiwat also increased from 14,987 baht and 10,340 baht to 52,737 baht and 38,553 baht, respectively. Notwithstanding these positive developments, the region fared poorly compared either with neighboring Malaysia, or with Songkla Province, the thriving commercial and industrial center of the Thai South. In 2000, for example, the GDP per capita of Malaysia was RM 14,582 (more than 140,000 baht) and that of Kelantan, its poorest state, was RM 6,137 (over 60,000 baht). The proportion of GPP contribution of the deep South provinces to the overall GPP of the southern region during the past two decades remained substantially small or stagnant as compared to that of Songkla.

The poverty picture is a complicated one. In terms of average household income, none of the three southern border provinces is particularly poor. According to official figures for 2000, Narathiwat, the poorest of the three, ranked twenty-first from the bottom, while Pattani and Yala were in the middle group of Thailand’s seventy-six provinces. Many northeastern provinces and some northern ones had significantly lower average household incomes.

COMMENT: I actually think the Malaysia and Songkla comparisons are part of the problem because the southern provinces certainly don't have the lowest incomes as this 2007 UNDP report (PDF):

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Also, from the 2007 UNDP report, the monthly household incomes were 11,694 baht for Pattani, 11,880 baht for Yala, and 9,214 for Narathiwat. The change in household income for 2002-2004 was  21.99%, 19.27%, and 21.28% for the 3 provinces respectively. This is compared to average change over the same time period for all of Thailand which was 9.4%, for the southern region it was 16.98%. Out of Thailand's 76 provinces, Yala, Pattani, and Narathiwat are ranked 17th, 55th, and 56th respectively as the below chart shows (1st having the highest income):

470138538

 

Those in the 3 southern border provinces are hardly the poorest in Thailand and their incomes were also rising up until 2004.

Dr. Srisompob's article continues:

However, nearly half of the Southerners officially living below the poverty line47.05 percent of them — reside in Pattani, Yala, and Narathiwat. Another set of figures from a 1998 National Economic and Social Development Board (NESDB) report showed that 152,777 Yala people, or approximately 37 percent of the total population, had incomes below the provincial poverty line of 845 baht per month. The same report also points to a large number of Muslims in the other two border provinces still living in poverty, ranking Narathiwat as the poorest province in southern Thailand with 46 percent of the total population, or more than 193,000 persons, living below the poverty line (808 baht a month) compared to 20.7 percent or about 125,440 people in Pattani (818 baht per month).

COMMENT: On poverty there are newer statistics available.

From a World Bank Report in 2005:

While the World Bank report doesn't break down the regions by provinces, this spreadsheet (Excel file, Thai language) from the Office of the National Economic and Social Development Board (NESDB) - NESDB are the World Bank's source - does. I have created the below charts based on the NESDB figures:

NOTE: Those who are categorised as "poor" are those who are living below the poverty line.

COMMENT: In terms of raw numbers and also as a percentage, the two above charts show the number of poor/those living below the poverty line is falling as well.

The below chart shows that the overall percentage of poor/those living below the poverty line in the 3 southern border provinces is also falling.

 

468492441

 

There were 1.36 million poor persons in total in the 14 southern border provinces in 2000, but 610,500 of those lived in the 3 southern border provinces. This meant that 45% of all poor Southerners lived in the 3 southern border provinces. For 2002, it was 53%, for 2004, it was 48% as the chart below shows.

NOTE: Southerns should read Southerners in the above chart.

COMMENT: On one hand, the above chart is concerning as it shows that the number of poor/those living in poverty in the 3 southern border provinces is decreasing at a lower rate than those in the rest of the South. However, given that the number of poor (as well as the percentage of the poor) in the 3 southern border provinces is also decreasing I don't think this chart is too worrying. It would be easy to say that the government should invest in education and infrastructure in the 3 southern border provinces, but the terrorists are bombings such places at the moment so it is not as easy as that.

There are also other factors which help explain why incomes are low or why it is proving difficult to reduce the number of poor as Dr Srisompob's article continues:

In other words, of approximately 1.3 million Muslims in the three provinces, about 470,000 or 36 percent were living below the poverty line. Overall, people in the southern border provinces are poorer than people elsewhere in the South, but their income levels are broadly comparable with Thais in many other parts of the country. Though an important objective correlative, this observation offers little comfort to Muslims in the three provinces, who are wont to compare their economic circumstances with those of fellow Malays in Malaysia, or of Buddhist Thais in Songkla and other more affluent parts of the South.

The official data also indicate that most Muslim people in the three border provinces lack educational and employment opportunities. Muslims in the deep South are more disadvantaged than their Buddhist counterparts in educational attainment, despite their status as the majority population in the region, and their strong background in religious education.

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NSO data from the national census of populations and housing in 2000 reveal that, in terms of the highest level of educational attainment, 69.80 percent of the Muslim population in Pattani, Yala, and Narathiwat provinces have only a primary school education, compared with 49.6 percent of Buddhists. However, levels of participation by Muslims decline strongly at the higher levels. For instance, 9.20 percent of Muslims have completed secondary education, compared to 13.20 percent of Buddhists. At this time, the NSO figures did not distinguish between government secondary schools and the private Islamic schools, which enroll large numbers of local Muslims. Nevertheless, the picture becomes even clearer at the tertiary level: only 1.70 percent of the Muslim population have a bachelor’s degree, while 9.70 percent of Buddhists hold undergraduate degrees.

Despite being the majority population in the three provinces, Muslims are seriously underrepresented in educational attainment. Furthermore, attempts to implement a variety of programs of socioeconomic growth and development seem to have made much improvement at the macro-level and in service and public sectors, but this has not translated into jobs nor substantially improved standards of living for the great majority of the Muslim population. Figures for 2000 indicate that of all the 766,000 working residents in the three border provinces, only 6.6 percent were employed as government officials. Muslim government officials comprised only 2.4 percent of all working Muslims in the region, compared with 19.2 percent of all working Buddhists. In addition, the 2000 national census also reports a rather high rate of illiteracy (30.4 percent) among the local Muslim population. While Thai government statistics assert that unemployment is very low in the three southern provinces, many local Muslims view serious unemployment, underemployment, or the need for seasonal migration across the border to neighboring Malaysia as ever-present realities.

COMMENT: I think it is slightly unrealistic for Muslims in the southern border provinces to compare themselves to those living elsewhere in Thailand given their level of educational achievement is much lower comparatively than the rest of Thailand as this chart from the UNDP report shows below:

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One of the problems for many Thai Muslims, even those with some education, is that they lack many necessary skills in employment as this report states:

This is primarily because jobs in the Thai public sector are difficult to obtain for those Muslim students who did not ever fully accept the Thai education system or learn the Thai language.

COMMENT: Part of the reason behind Thai Muslims lacking the necessary skills is self-created. A number of Muslims students studying at Islamic schools spend large periods of time studying Arabic and the Koran - which well let's be honest do not specifically advance most employment opportunities - so it is hardly surprising that their employment opportunities in Thailand are limited. Many can work in Malaysia because they speak the language. I really don't want to say too much more about fixing the education in this post as that it is another post in the works (see the ICG report of March 2007 for a starters).

One the biggest problems for the government is that the more terrorism there is, the less investment and educational opportunities there will be. The terrorists are attacking economic targets, or as this writer states the terrorists seem have graduated to "spectacular economic terrorism".  With insurance rates sky-rocketing, many educated people leaving the area, and with businesses being targeted etc, who would actually invest any money in the 3 southern border provinces?

Attack the government schools and you only have Islamic schools in various forms to go to. Now, many certainly offer general education courses, but if your Arabic is better than your Thai, does this really help you get a job?

So while some, including the Malaysian government, can claim that socio-economic factors are one of the root causes for the insurgency, I just think this is a little too convenient. Even in the 60s/70s when businesses weren't frequently targeted by the insurgents/terrorists, the violence would still have been deterrent to investment because it added risk and costs. If you note from Dr Srisompob's figures above, between 1983-2003 when there was very little political violence, the average per capita income in the 3 southern border provinces increased at roughly the same rate as the rest of the southern region. I doubt incomes have increased at the same rate since 2004, but then whose fault is that really, the governments' or the terrorists? I blame the terrorists who are destroying the economy and the social fabric. The government is caught in a tough position because the violence makes it extremely difficult to improve the socio-economic status of most of the residents.

Finally, with incomes rising and the number of poor/poverty levels decreasing in the lead up to the massive upsurge in the insurgency in 2004, I think socio-economic factors are just a convenient excuse. I have no doubt some other excuse would be brought up and played on.

Here is a strange idea, what about fundamentalist Islam as a root cause?


Amnesty Plan

Posted by Bangkok Pundit | 4/23/2007 02:52:00 AM

The Nation reports:

Defence Minister General Boonrawd Somtas yesterday threw his support behind an Army recommendation to offer an amnesty to deep South militants.

Fourth Army Region commander Ongkorn Thongprasom earlier suggested an amnesty would go a long way to restoring peace in the troubled region.

Boonrawd said if the idea could end the insurgency in the Muslim-majority region, he would support it.

A blanket amnesty was offered by the Communist Act of 1952 that the government used to win a surrender of party members and an end to their insurgency.

"It is a strategy which is part of the conformity policy in my view. The state should consider if it could restore peace in the South region," Boonrawd said.

Prime Minister Surayud Chulanont last week said he had asked officials to explore the possibility of granting an amnesty to militants in the Malay-speaking region as part of a government strategy to restore peace there.

COMMENT: I am not opposed to an amnesty as long as it is offered under the right conditions. However,  I often feel uneasy about analogies with the Communists and Kavi has summed up my most thoughts succintly, in this op-ed piece in The Nation, on the problems with an amnesty:

The amnesty idea is not a new one. It was used successfully in the 1970s and '80s to lure back communist insurgents and leftists students who joined the movement. Both the domestic and external environments at the time were conducive to ending the communist movement in Southeast Asia. The rapprochement between Thailand and China, which was the main supporter of the communist insurgency in the country, helped to usher in the new policy dealing with the problem.

Their normalisation of diplomatic ties paved the way for the cessation of armed clashes and a halt to logistic support for the insurgents. The China-Vietnam conflict also aided the demise of the Thai communist movement, because of the absence of fraternal ties and backing. When he was a young colonel, Surayud helped General Prem Tinsulanonda, who served as prime minister from 1980-88, to execute order No 26/23, which granted a blanket amnesty to communist guerrillas and leftist students who joined the movement. The policy symbolised the supremacy of the political approach over the more dangerous armed approach.

One caveat is in order, though. This kind of generous amnesty programme can be applied in Yala, Pattani and Narathiwat only when there is a dispute settlement mechanism in place to ensure the cessation of violence and attacks on civilians, including some form of a truth and national reconciliation commission. Identities of conflicting parties must be traceable. An enabling external environment provided by neighbouring countries would help.

If the government were to grant amnesty hurriedly, without ending the ongoing violence, it would embolden the young insurgents to step up their daily deadly attacks. The government's goodwill gesture would be construed as a sign of weakness. Following the mid-March killing of eight civilians in a bus in Yala, the authorities labelled the insurgents as terrorists because of their persistence in targeting innocent people.

COMMENT: The previous amnesty worked as the government deal with China managed to cut off the funding and weaken the ideological basis for the fight. This will be much more difficult in the South as there is no single patron/source of funding.

I think Kavi's last paragraph is key and explains why there shouldn't be an amnesty now.


Lost Cause

Posted by Bangkok Pundit | 4/23/2007 01:52:00 AM

You know things are going bad for the government when PAD leader and anti-Thaksin activist is coming out to defend Thai Rak Thai as The Nation reports:

The government was under pressure yesterday to back up its accusation that old power groups paid former MPs to carry out political activities aimed at toppling the regime.

Campaign for Popular Democracy secretary-general Suriyasai Katasila called on the government to reveal the financial routes behind the alleged move.

"If the government does not reveal the evidence, the old power groups can claim that they are the victims of political harassment. The government will lose public support as a result," he said.

COMMENT: His motives are that he is worried about the return of the "old power", but making such allegations could constitute smears.

On the issue of funding and smears, Sopon in The Nation yesterday stated:

On the political front, the government might feel less pressure now that activist groups are focusing their attacks on members of the Council for National Security (CNS), who have been targeted one by one with negative and smear campaigns without any effective countermove or response.

In the next few days, activist and pressure groups intend to flex their muscles with a protest gathering of several thousands with heavy funding from elements serving politicians in the erstwhile Thaksin government. The CNS and the government are well aware of such arrangements, but there is not much they can do.

COMMENT: I don't remember Sopon defending Thaksin last year of such smears or being worried about Sonthi, Prachai or others funding the PAD, but I guess their cause was more "just".

Also, hasn't the last 6 months been just one massive smear campaign against members of the old power?


AEC Gives New Meaning to Collective Responsibility

Posted by Bangkok Pundit | 4/23/2007 01:32:00 AM

The Nation reports:

The AEC is also probing the telecom excise tax that was introduced by Thaksin Shinawatra's government but has since been revoked.

Chairman Nam Yimyaem said the AEC would question witnesses about the cabinet meeting that issued the resolution on excise tax. "If no one made any objection, all Thaksin cabinet members who issued the resolution would be held responsible for the policy," he said.

COMMENT: Yes, that evil excise tax which directed money directly into government coffers instead of to CAT or TOT. Chairman Nam doesn't point which law has been broken, but I doubt that will stop him.


Draft Constitution

Posted by Bangkok Pundit | 4/18/2007 11:31:00 PM

The Thai language version has now been released and is available here. I will have more comprehensive coverage once an English translation has been released. I will focus on differences between this draft and the 1997 Constitution. Other commentary at New Mandala.

Some notes on some differences:

1. s4 Rights set out in International Obligations which Thailand have ratified  shall be protected

2. s28 (on invoking individual rights and liberties),

2. Addition of s31 which states then soldiers, police, government officials, other government workers, and state enterprise employees also have the same rights and liberties as other persons except as specified by law etc

COMMENT: Argh, what was the need then. They have rights except where the law states those rights can be restricted.

This Manager article has this summary of changes.

I note the  mention of "sufficiency economy", and appointed senators from professional groups and from each province.


Rethinking Thailand's Southern Violence

Posted by Bangkok Pundit | 4/18/2007 01:20:00 AM

Andrew Walker of New Mandala has a post on "Rethinking Thailand’s Southern Violence", a book edited by Duncan McCargo, which was recently published by the National University of Singapore.

Here is the publisher's description of the book:

Since January 2004, the three Muslim-dominated provinces of Pattani, Yala and Narathiwat in the Thai south have been ablaze with political violence. Early incidents such as the bloody storming of the historic Kru-Ze mosque and the deaths of 78 Tak Bai protestors at the hands of the army made global headlines. But most of the subsequent events have gone largely unnoticed despite a terrible catalogue of "daily killings". The Thaksin Shinawatra government's persistent mishandling of the southern violence was a key factor behind the September 2006 military coup d'etat, the biggest political upheaval in Thailand since the early 1990s.

This collection by Thai and international scholars examines the reasons behind the growing unrest in south Thailand from a variety of perspectives. The contributors reject the simplistic mantras of "terrorism experts" and call for more nuanced, subtle and critical readings of history and monuments, the ambiguous role of Thaksin Shinawatra government, alternative theories and explanations for the violence, the salience of political Islam, voices of ordinary people in Pattani and the misleading paradigms of the insecurity industry.

This book will change the way the southern Thailand conflict is understood.

Contributors are: Chaiwat Satha-Anand, Ukrist Pathmanand, Srisompob Jitpiromsri, Duncan McCargo, Panyasak Sobhonvasu, Wattana Sungunnasil, May Tan-Mullins and Michael Connors.

COMMENT: By the list of authors and a skim read of the book, the book is just a rehash of March 2006's Critical Asian Studies edition which I overall found slightly disappointing. My comments below are on the papers/articles in the CAS edition and not the book, but from my skim read of the book I didn't see any substantial changes to the overall message/content. It is also much easier to excerpt (by copying and pasting) journal articles than book excerpts which I would have to type.

First though I find the dislike of "terrorism experts" to be snobbish. It is like the argument used by some that if you are not Thai you can't understand Thailand or Thai politics. It is incredibly dismissive and doesn't address the argument the person is making. Should terrorism experts then also criticise Thai experts stating they don't understand terrorism and shouldn't try to explain the violence? Part of the problem is that some Thai experts can't bring themselves to think of the current violence as terrorism and this is why we need these terrorism experts. More on that below as not all the articles take this view.

A recurring theme in some of the articles was it all Thaksin's fault without exactly explaining how (remember correlative doesn't equal causative). However, before looking at two articles which make this argument, either directly or implicit, I first want to introduce you to some of the counter-arguments made in two of other articles in the edition. I found both of these articles not only excellent, but also refreshing.

The first article is by  Dr Srisompob Jitpiromsri and Panyasak Sobhonvasu entitled  "Unpacking Thailand's southern conflict: The poverty of structural explanations" Critical Asian Studies 38:1 (2006), p95-117.

Dr Srisompob is a political scientist at Prince of Songkhla University in Pattani. I am a huge fan of Dr Srisompob's articles on southern Thailand and I have excerpted his articles or quoted his newspaper interviews frequently on this blog. For those who believe the government/CIA/Pentagon are behind all the violence, see this excerpt from the above article:

When closely investigated and classified, the 1,217 cases of attacks citizens in 2004 and 2005 [BangkokPundit: actually up until June 2005] comprised three types: 83.4 percent of the attacks (1017 cases) were attributed to militants or insurgent groups, 15.2 percent cases (185 cases) were regarded as criminal or personal conflict cases, 1.4 percent of the attacks were believed to have been carried out by the authorities. Clearly, militant activities in local communities were widespread, and believed to account for the overwhelming majority of the attacks.

The concluding remarks in the article looks at ideology and it it worthwhile to read the full excerpt which I have posted below:

In the face of this evidence, it no longer seems plausible to attribute the violent incidents in the deep South, as Nidhi does, to a spontaneous “peasant rebellion.” There are clear patterns of violence in terms of locations, victims, and tactics of operation. In 2004, violent incidents increased twenty-seven–fold compared with the average rate of similar incidents during the previous decade.

If identity politics — a consciousness of Patani’s glorious ancient kingdom, or the sense of Malay ethnic identity—are the main reasons behind the operations, the question remains: Why has violence surged now, and not earlier?

If the government and the authorities have made a great blunder, business as usual for the Thai authorities, why has this led to the greater intensity and momentum of violence at this time? The violent incidents took place in spite of the fact that the Thaksin government had already deployed about twenty thousand soldiers and police officers in the three affected provinces. The violence in the Thai South contains important psychological elements, reflecting attempts to instill and propagate fear. In this sense, the violence conforms to the classic definition of “terrorism,” differing from other types of criminal actions because of its political aims and motives, and their far-reaching psychological repercussions beyond the immediate victims or target.

History, though important, does not offer a satisfactory explanation for recent events. Nor do socioeconomic arguments about poverty, or general arguments about the need for the Malay-Muslim minority to be justly treated by the
Thai government
. The tragic and appalling events of 28 April and the Tak Bak incident should not obscure the central facts: during the eighteen months from January 2004 through June 2005, most of the violent incidents that took place in the three provinces were not killings of Muslims by agents of the Thai state.

Based on the known death tolls from those two incidents, and the data gathered from the individual attack surveys, perhaps a few more than two hundred Muslims died at the hands of the Thai authorities during this period.  Whatever mistakes
the Thaksin government has committed, it cannot be held directly responsible for all of the remaining incidents. Most of these killings fell into two categories: the murders of Buddhists by Muslim militants (the majority of the 388 Buddhist victims), and the murders of fellow Muslims by Muslim militants (the majority of the 282 Muslim victims).

Claims that many of these murders are attributable to personal conflicts or criminal activities are not supported by the individual attack survey evidence. Because most of these political murders were isolated cases, in which typically only one or two people were killed at a time, the collective enormity of these unfolding events has been difficult to grasp.

During the first half of 2005, Muslim victims of political murders began to exceed Buddhist victims. The growth of this Muslim-on-Muslim violence is one of the most important trends in the data. In the eyes of their Muslim assailants, most of these victims may have been seen as “hypocritical” collaborators with the Thai authorities.

More research is still needed on the structural underpinning of Malay-Muslim grievances against the Thai state, on the politics of identity, and a host of other salient background issues. But this research is unlikely to help much in explaining the post–January 2004 upsurge in violence. The most important questions concern the psychology and motivations of those behind these increasingly vicious attacks.

The ideology of the militants is no longer the somewhat romantic and low-key separatism of the past: the latest waves of attacks have had a much more aggressive and ruthless character. It is time to turn to serious studies of the thinking behind the sizeable militant movements currently operating in the three provinces of Pattani, Yala, and Narathiwat. The root causes are no longer the most critical factor: it is the militant movements and their ideological perimeters that really matter.

COMMENT: I couldn't have said better myself. As time permits, I will look at more recent statistics from Dr Srisompob.

The second article which I think is worth reading is by Wattana Sugunnasil entitled "Islam, radicalism, and violence in Southern Thailand: Berjihad di Patani and the 28 April 2004 attacks" Critical Asian Studies 38:1 (2006), pp 119-144.

Wattana Sugunnasil is currently an assistant professor at the Social Science Department, Prince of Songkhla University, Pattani Campus.

Here is the abstract:

The main argument of this article is that the separatist struggle, which was initially based on a Malay national liberation struggle, has taken on undertones of a radical Islamist ideology, and the discourse of the separatist struggle has significantly shifted to that of radical Islamist politics by calling for a jihad against the Thai state, its local agents, and their Muslim allies. This shift is exemplified by a document entitled Berjihad di Patani, which appears to have helped inspire the violent incidents of 28 April 2004. To a large extent, what is happening in southern Thailand follows similar developments elsewhere, both at the regional level and in other parts of the Muslim world. Factors affecting the changing discourse and practice of the separatist politics are both external and internal: [1] the failures of secularist development projects in the past decades,[2] the influence of Islamic radicalism abroad, and [3] the Islamic resurgence and fragmentation of religious establishment at home.

Wattana makes an important point on the progress that Muslims in southern Thailand have made over the years (at 122):

Another related development that would have a significant impact on Muslim politics can also be observed. By the late 1990s, Muslims were holding unprecedentedly senior posts in Thai politics. Wan Muhammad Nor Matha, a prominent Malay-Muslim politician from Yala, served as the president of Parliament from 1996 to 2001, later becoming deputy prime minister, communications minister, and eventually interior minister during the first Thaksin government. Only a few years earlier, the idea of a Muslim as head of Thailand’s local administration and domestic security structures would have been unthinkable. Dr. Surin Pitsuwan, another Muslim from the Upper South, served as foreign minister of Thailand from 1997 to 2001; and during Thaksin’s first term (2001–2005) there were fourteen Muslim members of parliament and several Muslim senators. In the deep South, Muslims dominated provincial legislative assemblies, and several southern municipalities had Muslim mayors. In this milieu of increasing political liberalization and institutionalized democracy, Muslims have been able to voice their political grievances more openly and enjoy a much greater degree of religious freedom. Muslim girls and women may now wear the hijab in government educational institutions and offices, Muslim names may be officially used, Muslim prayer rooms have been created in public places, and Friday prayers may be held on university campuses.

COMMENT: This is why I find newspaper claims that the root causes of the violence is discrimination against Muslims is the reason behind the violence as it fails to take into account the progress that Muslims have made. At the same time as progress has been made, we have seen an increase in the violence. Shouldn't this give pause for concern that it is not just discrimination which is behind the violence? Wattana then goes on to look at the links between Muslim politican's, crimes, and separatism (at 123):

A parliamentary report also proved problematic for local and national Muslim politicians in that it implicitly linked them with the network of illegal activities, including drug trafficking, cross-border smuggling, organized crime, and the activities of “influential groups.” Illegal businesses have thrived with tacit support and help from some senior government officials and even from some elements of separatists. Some violent incidents in the 1990s, including arson and bomb attacks, were believed to have been staged by these groups to either
protect or further their vested interests. This is a region where, as one commentator puts it, “bandits, good and rogue police officers, good and rogue soldiers, corrupt officials and remnants of Muslim separatist groups have long associated
with, robbed and occasionally killed each other.” To make matters worse, Najmuddin Umar—one of the very same constituency MPs mentioned approvingly by Omar — was officially charged with involvement in the insurgency, and accused of being to be one of the “masterminds” behind the recent violence. Another problem was that in the face of growing violence during 2004 and 2005, Muslim politicians remained conspicuously silent, so eroding their political legitimacy and support. This cost them dearly in politics: in the 2005 general election, all but one of the eleven incumbent Muslim MPs who stood for election were voted out of office.

COMMENT: It is not just Muslim politicians, but also many Muslim leaders who have remained silent.

Wattana also discusses the changing nature of the insurgency in the southern border provinces (at 125)- a topic which I have blogged about previously (here and here):

Since the beginning of 2004, the nature of violence in the deep South has drastically changed following the emergence of radical Muslim militants who have espoused the cause of total war with the Buddhist kafirs (infidels or nonbelievers) and brought with them a highly selective interpretation of Islam. This development was most clearly seen in the tragic events of 28 April 2004, which shed some light on the previously overlooked phenomenon of radical Islamist movements in the deep South of Thailand. On that day, a document, written in 2002 in the Malay language’s Yawi script, entitled Berjihad di Patani (The struggle at Patani), was found on the body of one of the militants killed by Thai military forces at Kru-Ze. Although the document apparently originates with the group responsible for the suicide attacks on 28 April, as part of the justification for their actions, its significance arguably extends beyond the light it sheds on this group of Muslim militants. Berjihad di Patani is the only authentic and detailed statement of radical Muslim militant views in the deep South currently available.

Wattana then provides some background information to Berjihad di Patani (126-127): 

Berjihad di Patani presents, as then deputy prime minister Won Muhamad Nor put it, a “very well written” radical worldview with a “persuasive power.” Even if the suicide attacks had not been committed by the 28 April groups, Berjihad di Patani would still be invaluable for its insights into a mind-set that has probably existed for some time, and that will not be easily eradicated by any measures available to the Thai state. The document is written in a style difficult for nonspecialist readers to understand, but has a tone of unquestionable authority. This authority is invested with a religious power that is reinforced by countless injunctions taken from the Qur’an. The document apparently had two authors, Ismael Jaffar, alias Ismael Yameena or Poh Su, a Kelantan native, and Abdul Wahub Data, imam of Tarpia Tulwatat Mullaniti Islamic boarding school in Yala. Abdul Wahub confessed to writing it and expressed great regret; Poh Su was arrested by the Malaysian authorities but later released without charge.

Accusing the Thai government of oppressing the Muslim population in the South, the authors of Berjihad di Patani proclaimed a jihad against the Thai government and those who work with and support it. Without explicitly claiming responsibility for the violence, the document nevertheless provides a rationale for it, and for the attacks that were to follow. It urges Muslims to take up the armed struggle to fight for separatism.
...

For the authors, Patani is Dar al-Islam (the land of Islam) and it has been invaded by the Siamese or the central Thai government—the infidel state. Therefore it is legitimate to call a jihad of defense against infidel (nonbeliever) or kafir invaders. Drawing a parallel between present separatist struggles and the religious warfare that raged in the time of the Prophet Muhammad in the seventh century C.E., the authors exhort Muslims to wage a jihad and to rise up against the injustices inflicted upon them by the enemies of Allah.

Wattana looks at the concept of jihad and the selective sources used in the document/book (at 130):

Jihad is a defining concept or belief in Islam, a key element in what it means to be a believer and follower of God’s will. Its importance is rooted in the Qu’ran’s command to struggle (the literal meaning of the word jihad) in the path of God and in the example of the Prophet Mohammad and his early companions. While jihad is about much more than martyrdom, martyrs who sacrifice their lives to establish or to defend Islamic ideals also hold a special place in Islam. The Qur’an has many passages that support the notion of martyrdom and that comfort those left behind. In the late twentieth and twenty-first centuries, the terms jihad and martyrdom have gained remarkable currency. They are used by Muslims around the world to legitimate their causes and motivate their followers, including those who die for their faith or in the defense of Muslim territory in “just” causes in places ranging from Palestine, to Afghanistan, Bosnia, Kashmir, the Philippines, and southern Thailand. To elaborate on this, a brief excursion into the development of Islamic radicalism is necessary. When the authors of Berjihad di Patani and other militants examine contemporary events, they follow common Islamic practice by citing ancient authorities.

Although many non-Muslims would expect believers to refer to the Qur’an and Hadith (Sunnah of the Prophet) for guidance, most would be surprised by the extent to which the ideas of past Muslim theologians, thinkers, and movements still directly impact upon the minds of militants and other Islamic activists and the Muslim world today.  Both modern reformers and radical extremists draw, often selectively, on the teachings and examples of early Islamic revivalist thinkers and activist movements to justify their contemporary jihads. Present-day Muslim radicals or militants, including the authors of Berjihad di
Patani, often link their radical jihadist worldviews to famous earlier interpretations of jihad, for example, that of prominent medieval theologian and legal scholar Ibn Taymiyya, or that of another influential modern thinker, Sayyid Qutb.

However, for me what I think the one of the crucial points in the article is on the general radicalisation of Islam worldwide and in Southeast Asia (at 132):

Development of the content and form of Muslim politics in Thailand and elsewhere has been influenced by external events. While Islamic resurgence and militancy were on the rise from the 1970s onwards, attempts to mobilize Muslims all over the world for a jihad in one area of the world such as Palestine or Kashmir were unsuccessful until the 1980s. The Soviet invasion of Afghanistan was a turning point, as it revived the concept of participation in jihad to expel an infidel occupier from a Muslim country as a personal duty for every capable Muslim. The success and experience of mujahidin in Afghanistan in the late 1980s undoubtedly helped popularize the radical meaning and practice of jihad in many Muslim societies.

At a regional level, the radicalization of Islamist politics worldwide had given birth to new, more radical Islamist movements and parties in Southeast Asia: whereas the Muslim opposition politics of the 1960s and 1970s in Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, and the Philippines was led mostly by secular-educated leaders, the 1980s and 1990s witnessed the emergence of more radical movements whose networks were increasingly expanded and ideologies and discourses more heavily colored by the ideas and values of religion. Even in countries like Singapore, Malaysia, and Indonesia, where Muslim politics had long been moderate, the 1990s saw efforts by jihadi militants to expand their radical networks. In southern Thailand since the 1990s, the rise of Islamic radicalism has helped revitalize a flagging separatist movement, which also received a much needed boost from veteran Afghan mujahidin.

Wattana then turns to radicalisation of Islam in Southern Thailand (at 134-135):

Militants have also been able to take advantage of the growing religious consciousness within the Muslim community, as the 1980s and 1990s saw a strong Islamic resurgence in Thailand. The primary characteristic of the religious resurgence that swept the Muslim community was not political; rather, it took the form of a growing piety among Muslims who were showing an increasingly strong interest in the ritual demands of their faith and in their religious life. This resurgence can be seen in the growth of mosque attendance, religious education, Muslim radio and television programs, Muslim newspapers and publishing, and a plethora of translated Islamic literature. An upsurge in manifestations of religiosity and religious awareness could also be seen, ranging from private exercise in personal piety and devotion, involving a detailed observance of the prayers, fasting, and personal morality, to public rituals and behaviors, including a marked increase in the number of women donning the hijab, men wearing beards, and in the numbers of Muslims making the haj, or pilgrimage to Mecca. Although the resurgence was for most Muslims a matter of personal religiosity, it nonetheless benefited the radical militants in two important ways: it provided the opportunity for religious symbols and meanings to be increasingly manipulated for political purposes, and simultaneously contributed to the further fragmentation of Muslim religious authority.

Because the resurgence brought Islamic ideas and institutions such as mosques and Islamic schools into public prominence, separatist groups could exploit related political and cultural contestations for the purpose of mobilizing support. While Islamic resurgence is certainly not the same as religious fanaticism, there is a tendency among government officials, academics, and religious leaders to downplay the religiosity of the militants: yet they certainly take their religion seriously, and seek recruits from the ranks of the pious. Some of the militant groups began to work on their ways to recruit new militant members and also in southern Thailand via ustadzes (religious teachers). Although the extent of militant infiltration of the Islamic schooling system is difficult to quantify, evidence seems to indicate that since the mid to late 1990s, an alliance of groups, including former separatists, newly arrived jihadists, and some ustadzes, systematically targeted the education system. The spread of a new radical separatist ideology in the education system, particularly in the private Islamic schools, was far greater than previously suspected. Militant infiltration and recruitment in these schools apparently reflected the activities of numerous politically radical, well-educated ustadzes in their late twenties, thirties, and forties, many of whom had returned from overseas studies in Indonesia, Malaysia, Pakistan, or Arab countries. In the process, the new separatist politics were developing and the political meanings and practice of jihad, as embodied in Berjihad di Patani, were to be understood and subsequently used in their most violent forms. The new militants advocated a sustained and relentless violent struggle against the kafirs, broadly construed. The jihad became a focus of attraction, the solution for the Muslim community’s ills, and even one of the pillars of Islam.

COMMENT: I am continually surprised that it was the rise of Thaksin which has been linked with the violence yet the fact that a radicalisation of Muslims in Thailand is not raised or discounted. If you look at other countries you can see radicalised Islam has led to violence, is this not also possible in Thailand? Surely, this would also help in explaining the violence? I will look at this further in part 2.

Wattana concludes the article by saying (141-142):

Government officials, liberal academics, and moderate Muslim scholars in Thai society tend to assume that political, social  and economic causes underpin the current militancy, and that if these causes are properly addressed, the problem will go away. If the roots of the problem are to some extent ideological, however, it would be naive to expect political gestures and other measures for social and economic improvement to change the hearts of radical militants and their supporters. Attempts to deal with the violence in the deep South as if it were divorced from its intellectual, cultural, and religious foundations must be viewed with great caution. Notwithstanding socioeconomic and political development programs, the government’s counter-violence policy and measures must take the religious and ideological aspects of violence into serious consideration and adopt appropriate measures. They must also be based on an in-depth understanding of the religious justifications of radical Islamist militancy and the development of appropriate responses.

In the local Thai press and other media, Muslim militants are most often seen as mindless terrorists or religious fanatics and anti-Buddhist militants, longing for the past. They are almost always evaluated in harshly negative terms with little or no effort made to seriously comprehend the discontents and the thinking and ideological justification that have provided their support. The success of radical militant groups in the recruitment, posting, and ideological maintenance of sleeper members, with few defectors, demonstrates the deep ideological nature of the phenomenon. Like it or not, people do not undertake violent militant actions without compelling reasons. To ignore the inspiration, mindsets, and motivations of the militants, is to put up an insurmountable barrier to understanding them.

COMMENT: I have removed the footnotes for the article, but I just had to include this footnote which comes at the end of the above paragraph:

79 Alas, such a refusal is rather common among peace-building advocates, subscribers to conspiracy theories, and liberal academics and commentators in today’s Thailand.

COMMENT: It says it all really. I'll look at McCargo and Ukrist in part 2.


Defence Volunteers and Southern Thailand

Posted by Bangkok Pundit | 4/17/2007 03:57:00 AM

In addition to my recent posts (here and here) on defence volunteers shooting and killing Muslim students in southern Thailand, last month, Thomas Fuller had this excellent article in IHT:

There is a police station a short drive down the road from this village surrounded by rice paddies and rubber trees. But the village headman, La-ong Laijian, says he feels much safer with a shotgun at his side.

"In this kind of situation we better rely on ourselves," La-ong said Monday as he cleared brush at the village's jungle-shrouded Buddhist cemetery.

Three years ago, a worker at a chicken farm was beheaded here, apparently by the same insurgents who have terrorized southern Thailand with increasing intensity since 2004, when a centuries- old conflict between Buddhist Thais and Muslim Malays reignited.

Soon after the beheading, the residents of Lampaya, about 800 kilometers, or 500 miles, south of Bangkok, banded together, bought 150 rifles, received weapons training from a program initiated by Thailand's Queen Sirikit, and began a 24-hour patrol system.

As a result, while surrounding villages have had about 20 killings by insurgents since the beginning of the year, the residents of Lampaya proudly report that they have had none.

Over the last four decades, as conflicts have spilled over its borders with Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar and Malaysia, the Thai government has often fallen back on village militias to help keep the peace. In the country's southernmost provinces teachers, rubber tappers and civil servants have been trained to handle weapons.

But experts on southern Thailand are watching the trend with a wary eye. Most of the village militias are Buddhist, reinforcing the sectarian lines in the three southernmost provinces of Thailand, where about 90 percent of the population is Muslim.

"My cousin in Narathiwat is arming himself to the teeth and drives an armor-plated pickup truck," said Panitan Wattanayagorn, an associate professor in international relations at Chulalongkorn University in Bangkok, referring to his home province, which borders on Malaysia. "It's a reflection of how bad the situation is."

The militias, analysts say, are spreading guns in a region that already has too many. And there is no rigorous system to control who is allowed to join the militias.

"If they just protect themselves it's reasonable," said Srisompob Jitpiromsri, a political science professor and associate dean at Prince of Songkla University in the southern city of Pattani.

More militias are being formed as the security situation deteriorates, Srisompob said.

"I'm very concerned that this will lead to more sectarian tension," he said.

There are about 18,000 troops in the three troubled provinces, about one for every square kilometer of territory and one for every 100 residents. During a drive across two of the provinces Monday there were soldiers stationed on every major road in intervals of several hundred meters.

Yet six months after seizing power, Thailand's military-appointed government is coming under increasing pressure to toughen what has been a relatively conciliatory approach toward Muslim insurgents.

There are some calls in Thailand to resume the hard-line approach advocated by the prime minister the generals overthrew last September, Thaksin Shinawatra. Newspaper editorials have urged the government to disown its policy of negotiations with the insurgents. The Nation, a newspaper, marked six months of military rule on Monday with the headline, "Soft approach in South failing."

The gruesome killings last week by insurgents of eight passengers in a commuter van — including two teenage girls — and the steep increase in deaths since the Sept. 19 coup have spurred protest marches in Bangkok and Chiang Mai and a plea by the queen for more security for southern civilians.

Napol Boonthap, a general who serves as an assistant to the royal household, said in a speech Saturday that the queen was deeply concerned about the safety of civilians in the south.

"I don't care what anyone says," Boonthap quoted the queen as telling him, according to the newspaper Matichon.

"We must help the people there to survive. If they need to be trained, train them. If they need weapons, give them weapons."

The monthly death toll of the insurgency averaged 65 in the five months after the coup, compared with an average of 50 in the five months before. On Monday, three women were killed on their way to work at one of the queen's agricultural projects in Pattani.

Many southerners, especially Buddhists, are hoping for a stronger response from the government and the crown.

Immediately after the September coup the military-appointed government said tackling the problems of the south would be a priority. With several high-ranking Muslim members in the junta and government— including the top general and the interior minister — analysts were hopeful the violence would subside.

Last November, Prime Minister Surayud Chulanont made an extraordinary apology, taking responsibility on behalf of the Thai state for decades of strife. Surayud banned the practice of blacklisting people with suspected ties to the insurgency and dropped charges against a group of Muslim protesters. The general who led the September coup, Sondhi Boonyarataglin, said he was ready to talk to representatives of the insurgents.

But the immediate response from the insurgents was far from conciliatory. The day after Surayud issued his apology, 46 violent incidents were recorded, compared with a daily average of 9 the previous month, according to the International Crisis Group, a Brussels-based organization that has been monitoring the situation in southern Thailand.

What has stirred the most anger against the insurgents — and has increased frustration toward the government — is the broadening of the daily killings to include apparently randomly selected civilians, everyone from monks to farmers and schoolchildren.

"When people see attacks against women and children, they feel they are being let down by the government," said Panitan, the Chulalongkorn professor.

Villagers in Lampaya say they often contemplate retaliating for the killings.

"We really want revenge," said Chain Tingkam, 41, a grocery store owner. "Especially when someone I know is killed, I really want to shoot and fight."

This is precisely the fear of analysts who say the violence could escalate if villages start warring with each other or if religious lines become even sharper. La-ong, the village headman, said he had also contemplated revenge but said he felt restraint.

"As humans we all want revenge," he said. "But I ask myself, 'If I do it, how will that help me?'"

COMMENT: I have commented on possible sectarian tensions previously and I think the government needs to be careful that the situation doesn't get out of control. Otherwise, you will get mobs seeking revenge.

I am not personally opposed to arming villagers and in the current situation I don't see that taking away their guns will  work (do we really need a black market trade in guns and the police taking away such guns?), but it is the fundamental role of the state to provide security. If state doesn't want things to get out of control and it sees the solution is for armed militias it needs to provide more training and support to such volunteers and not solely offering excuses/trying to explain away their actions. Rapidly, the southern border provinces is descending into a state of nature and I think is what the terrorists want.


Blasphemy

Posted by Bangkok Pundit | 4/17/2007 02:13:00 AM

Almost, everytime I read an opinion piece in The Nation I am dumb-founded on how on earth they can continue to come up with the rubbish they write. Normally, I am content for TJTS to fisk the ridiculous opinion pieces and while he has commented on the latest Thepchai Yong piece, I also need to comment to keep my sanity. The opinion piece starts:

The People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD), the broad-based movement that was instrumental in bringing down the Thaksin government, believes there shouldn't be any compromise in the fight between the forces of good and evil.

COMMENT: See Thaksin is evil, but The Nation are just projecting what the PAD says. I just with they would admit it.

That's why they want to see former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra and his cronies brought to justice at all costs. After all, wasn't that part of the rationale behind the September 19 coup? But Prime Minister Surayud Chulanont apparently has a different idea. The once battle-hardened former Army commander-in-chief seems to be allowing his softer and more religious part to get the better of him. Even the worst of all thieves, he believes, can be won over and made to repent - just like the brutal murderer who was out to kill Lord Buddha but was eventually converted and became his faithful disciple.

COMMENT: Argh, analogies by The Nation.

In short, the PAD leaders believe that Thaksin's political sins are beyond redemption, while Surayud is convinced that he can somehow make the former prime minister see the light. The pro-democracy movement obviously wants the Surayud government to help finish what it started. It paved the way for Thaksin to be dragged out of power by the military, and now it wants him and his political machine wiped off the political map. But for once Surayud is taking a stand: he wants to handle Thaksin his own way.

COMMENT: So finally, Surayud is doing something taking action, is The Nation happy? Of course not.

Of course, the whole matter is more than a subject for philosophical debate. We are talking about a man who is accused of plundering his country and undermining its democratic systems to perpetuate his political control and buttress his family's business interests. Worse still, we are talking about a political leader who allegedly sowed the seeds of unprecedented political division and blasphemed the Monarchy to increase his own political leverage.

COMMENT: As TJTS has commented "Allegations don't equal guilt". It is The Nation which is doing the accusing?

Blasphemed the Monarchy? This is part of a trend by The Nation and in a previous editorial they equated HM the King with a "a religious icon" and "a spiritual leader". Is it just me who finds this concerning?

The rationale for this is The Nation seems to be justifying the line they have previously drawn on when speech can be restricted. Last year, The Nation was of the view that lampooning political figures was ok, but lampooning religious figures was not. I did then and still now disagree. I think religion and politics are so entwined that censoring speech which criticises religious figures is an unnecessary restriction on speech.

Back to the rest of the column:

There is no doubt that Thaksin's political behaviour made him a threat to Thailand's democracy. While the September 19 power seizure did end Thaksin's popular but politically destructive rule, it was far from being a coup de grace. The all-powerful Council for National Security (CNS) and the government it appointed still have a long way to go in dismantling his political legacy.

The escalating pro-Thaksin demonstrations serve as an unmistakable reminder that he is still a political force to be reckoned with. The continuing political disturbances are obviously an extension of the former leader's political manoeuvring that started with his high-profile overseas media interviews and his hiring of high-profile American lobbyist firms.

COMMENT: When PAD protested it was Thaksin's fault because he was divisive. When people protest against the CNS now, again it is Thaksin's fault. Perhaps, instead of saying the "dog ate my homework", future students can just blame Thaksin and say "Thaksin stole my homework" as Thaksin is to blame for all the world's evils.

This morning on Thai television, Sorayuth and Kuhn Pluem (Pridiyathorn's son and an obvious politican in the making) were making fun at some of the allegations being thrown around about the PTV protests (see this thread at 2Bangkok). Apparently, some people believe that mysterious figures will pay for people from outside of Bangkok to converge on Bangkok for a protest a PTV protest at the end of April. They will slip into Bangkok undetected with returning Songkran travelers. I believe it was Kuhn Pluem who was paraphrasing Chaturon, the current TRT leader, and said if these thousands of people are being paid to come to Bangkok to protest at the end of April, where will the stay in the 10 day period between the end of Songkran and the next PTV rally? I imagine that Manager readers believe there is some secret mysterious warehouse out there which will house them all. Second, how will they get to the rally? PTV or TRT have not organised any buses or transport for the protests so far. Kuhn Pluem correctly pointed out that the anti-Thaksin PAD rallies actually provided some transportation for people to attend the rallies

The PAD leaders have every right to be concerned that both the Surayud government and the CNS are losing sense of direction and priority. And it's a sentiment that is shared by a large section of society, which has grown increasingly disillusioned and frustrated. As prime minister, Surayud probably carries the heaviest burden. But it doesn't help that he has been giving every impression that despite the current extraordinary circumstances, he doesn't feel the need to do anything out of the ordinary to manage things. With the country heading towards another round of political confrontation, it's this sense of complacency that is most alarming.

COMMENT: Actually, part of the problem is Surayud doesn't have a mandate for bold policies. Implementing substantial policies will also bring out all kinds of protesters out of the woodwork. Privatising state enterprises? A no-no. Free-trade Agreements? A no-no. An opinion piece in the Bangkok complained:

...what is the rush to sign the agreement? Why does this government, which is an interim one, have to commit the country now to a contract which will be in force for years to come?

What The Nation wants is for Surayud to implement their agenda? Surayud has quite rightly held back on implementing most things. I think part of the problem is that the government introduced too many changes last year and they have run out of ideas now. On national security, he had been sidelined by the CNS - I will wait and see whether he gets his wish of Gen. Wattanchai becoming Deputy PM in the upcoming cabinet reshuffle which might show Surayud flexing his muscles against the CNS.

Many people were unsure whether to consider good news or bad news when, upon being discharged from hospital last week, Surayud announced that he was more determined than ever to stay in office despite earlier rumours that he was under pressure to quit.

The prime minister offered no clues as to how he would manage affairs of state differently than before, except to say that he would tighten the screws on his Cabinet members.

If the performance of his government to date has been a big disappointment, as many public opinion polls show, Surayud only has to look at himself. While we do have a prime minister, many people are unsure whether we have a leader. If Surayud has been listening carefully enough to all the criticism, he should already be familiar with the feeling of disillusionment among even those who once supported him.

COMMENT: Surayud is no ordinary PM, he is under the thumb of Gen. Sonthi and the CNS. The CNS choose the NLA and Surayud just can't implement anything he wants.

Surayud declared that despite all the pressure, he wasn't "losing heart", making it sound as if that was a mark of his determination to hang on. But the question is not whether he is losing heart or not. The question is how he will he steer the country out of the current political and economic imbroglio within the next six months.

Strong political leadership is necessary if this government seriously wants to deal with the problems at hand and pave the way for the next phase of political reform. Surayud needs to mobilise all the resources available to push ahead with bold policies. That means he has to break out of his bureaucratic mindset and recruit the active participation of both the National Legislative Assembly and the CNS to implement his agenda.

COMMENT: Does Surayud actually have an agenda? What about the NLA and their bureaucratic mindset?

Despite all his shortcomings, Surayud is still widely respected for his honesty and integrity. And many people believe that he deserves another chance. But time is running out for him to prove that he can hold the country together and put it back on track.

The past six months have proven that his reconciliatory approach towards the former political leadership doesn't work. Thaksin and his remaining supporters have shown that they are in no mood to let the country return to normalcy.

There are always thieves who cannot be reformed. And the only way to deal with them is to either banish them forever or put them behind bars. Prime Minister Surayud simply has no more time to waste.

COMMENT: So no reconciliation then? I don't remember The Nation taking such an approach towards the PAD last year.

Where are they going to banish Thaksin and his "regime"? Mars?


Election Commission Priorities

Posted by Bangkok Pundit | 4/17/2007 12:51:00 AM

The Election Commission's website states their powers and duties are (actually from section 10 of the Organic Act on the Election Commission B.E. 2541 (1998) (PDF)):

1. To control and cause to be held or hold an election and a referendum voting as provided by the law in an honest and fair manner.

...

9. To conduct civic education or co-ordinate with governmental agencies, local governments, state enterprises or other state agencies, or give support to the NGOs in the form of providing civic education on a democratic regime of government with the King as Head of State.

The Nation reports on the Election Commission's interpretation of an "honest and fair manner":

The Election Commission plans to enlist help from non-government groups to watch for poll fraud and any movement seeking to campaign against the referendum on the new constitution, commissioner Somchai Jungprasert said Monday.

As part of moves to improve the EC's inquiries into electoral fraud and people opposed to the public referendum on the new charter, the EC will train democracy activisits and NGOs workers to carry out support work.

Such staff would be incorporated into the EC's network to prevent poll fraud and work against any political groups looking to instigate a push against the referendum on the new constitution.


COMMENT
:  Surely, the Election Commission should disseminate neutral information and allow people to make their own decisions on voting. No, their goal now is to work against political groups who want to vote in favour of the referendum. Now, will the Election Commission also work against political groups who are in favour of the referendum? I think we know the answer to that and it is a resounding, no.

They will be enlisting NGOs in their campaign! Will they help is the question?


Unintended Consequences

Posted by Bangkok Pundit | 4/16/2007 09:42:00 PM

The Bangkok Post reports:

Tax officials are working in a climate of fear with their former chief facing criminal charges for malfeasance, which could eventually lead to many department officials getting the axe. Revenue Department chief Sanit Rangnoi said morale in the department has reached an all-time low, and officials are now gripped with fear of being indicted for malfeasance if their tax advice happened to be wrong.

The uneasiness is also affecting taxpayers who come to the agency to inquire about their tax liability, he said, because the authorities avoid giving them clear-cut advice and only broadly refer to a certain clause in the Revenue Code or tax regulations.

The atmosphere turned gloomy after Mr Sanit's predecessor, Sirot Sawasdipanich, was indicted by the National Counter Corruption Commission (NCCC) in December last year. The NCCC found the former chief guilty of malfeasance for his failure to collect 272 million baht tax from Bannapot Damapong, the stepbrother of Potjaman Shinawatra, over a Shin Corp shares transfer in 1997.

Khunying Potjaman is the wife of deposed prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra.

The NCCC accused Mr Sirot of failing to perform his duty honestly.

A tax probe team set up by the military-appointed Assets Scrutiny Committee (ASC) recently opened another probe against some tax officials for having wrongly advised the former prime minister's son and daughter, Panthongtae and Pinthongta, to not pay tax over the repurchase of Shin Corp shares from their company Ample Rich Investments in 2005.

Officials normally have no intention of benefiting anyone, Mr Sanit said in their defence. ''I believe an in-depth investigation into malfeasance claims is needed to find out whether there were any personal motives behind their action,'' he said.

Article 157 of the Criminal Code stipulates a maximum imprisonment of 10 years, and it was obvious that tax officials were afraid to offer any advice.

''They are worried that their futures could be ruined after years of working with the agency if they are indicted [for giving wrongful tax advice],'' he said.

In the Ample Rich case, official Bencha Louischaroen responded to the inquiry by saying the siblings' subsequent profits were not subject to tax under a 1995 Finance Ministry ruling because they had bought the shares at a price lower than the market value. It was the same stance her other two top colleagues took before the Senate investigation panel on the issue. Mr Sirot also took the same stance at a press conference early last year.

The Shinawatra family was told the same thing when it sought the department's advice. But the ASC recently ruled against the tax agency's advice and ordered it to collect 5.69 billion baht in personal income tax from the pair. The Shinawatra family insisted it would not pay and has decided to fight the case in court.

Four days ago, the Bangkok Post reported:

Last week the ASC's tax probe team, led by former revenue chief Viroj Laohaphan, concluded that the Shinawatra siblings have to pay personal income tax stemming from their purchase of 329.9 million Shin Corp shares from Ample Rich outside the Stock Market of Thailand (SET) last year. The two bought the shares at one baht apiece while the market value was 49.25 baht per share.

Citing a Finance Ministry tax ruling in 1995, the investigators insisted the siblings received subsequent benefits of 15.88 billion baht from the price difference and thus have to pay tax at the 37% maximum rate on the profits they earned, whether or not the shares were sold later inside or outside the SET.

The team found that the actual transfer occurred on Jan 23 and cited the share value on this date for calculating the profits. On Jan 26, the two sold the purchased shares through the SET to Singapore's Temasek Holdings.

COMMENT: The demonisation of Thaksin though is the goal and nothing shall halt its progress. No matter whether it affects other taxpayers or what the consequences are. I have no problem if Thaksin or his family are found to have broken the law and are subsequently punished, but will these same laws be applied to others? No, they won't.  Yet, wait for any prosecution of Thaksin or his family to be hailed as a victory for the rule of law. However, such an argument would be be based on rhetoric because most, if not all, interpretations of the rule of law require that law is applied to everyone equally, but there will be no investigation of anyone else. How is this a victory for the rule of law? Quite simply it is not but this won't stop it being invoked. 


CNS Propaganda Update

Posted by Bangkok Pundit | 4/16/2007 11:30:00 AM

The Bangkok Post is well on top of the CNS propaganda campaign. They were the first English language paper to break the story and they now have a couple of editorials which discuss the issue.

Yesterday, The Bangkok Post in their editorial:

Since he was appointed ICT minister in October 2006, Mr Sitthichai has made persistent attempts to try to control the local internet. In so doing, he has alienated the government and the CNS from the middle classes who are against the previous government. And it did not help when he warned chatrooms against discussing issues that might violate national security, such as the revelation of a 12-million-baht anti-Thaksin public relations campaign by the CNS.

National security and the needs of public law and order and national development are frequently invoked in justification for restraints on the free flow of information. Journalists have no wish to see their nation's safety endangered. But they have been witness too often to official secrecy or disinformation being used to hide official embarrassment or corruption, and the similar use of other pretexts to stifle legitimate public debate.

Today's editorial (cache) on this issue is even better:
For a regime that promised transparency and accountability, the ruling Council for National Security (CNS) has showed little of either. Like a dentist pulling teeth, the media and citizens' groups have slowly been prying out details on some very questionable operations. Far from coming clean even when found out, the military has sought refuge in the cover-up. More troubling is its recent reflex of raw intimidation. Even the government has been used to issue threats to silence those who want authorities to live up to their six-month-old promise of openness.

The latest questionable project unearthed is a planned propaganda campaign against the deposed Thaksin Shinawatra regime. The documents first surfaced on a Thaksin-friendly website, but quickly were copied and under close scrutiny on Bangkok-based Internet chatrooms.

The CNS went through the tiring ritual of an embarrassed junta unable to keep its own secrets. First came denial; the papers were a forgery. Then came anger; someone must pay for stealing secret documents, and websites hosting discussions might have to be closed.

COMMENT: The CNS gets caught out in its lie is becoming a problem. Just the other day the army also got caught lying.
Then came PR management attempts; the papers were just normal routine for a new regime worried about a Thaksin comeback.

It now is clear that the documents, stolen or not, are authentic. They detail a shocking effort to secretly use 12 million baht to buy or rent some of the country's most influential voices in a partisan political campaign manipulated by the military. They claim to have lined up several leading politicians and academics to attack Thai Rak Thai and the Thaksin circle _ not out of conviction that it was best for the country, but for a share of the 12 million baht. One is torn between what is the sadder military claim: That influential voices can be bought, or that they can be bought so cheaply.

At the centre of the purloined papers is a familiar figure: CNS Assistant Army chief and CNS deputy secretary-general Saprang Kalayanamitr. Just over a month ago, Gen Saprang was on the front pages after his seven-million-baht European tour. Unsurprisingly, neither he, his superiors nor the military-appointed government have accounted for that trip. Now, Gen Saprang's younger brother Chianchuang has turned up as the head of the secret, 12-million-baht propaganda effort.

Secretariat director Gen Somjet Boonthanom, who keeps the CNS budget and signs the expense vouchers, says 12 million baht isn't much. He has a point that Mr Thaksin's populist policies cost more. Of course, a regime that has to purchase simulated support probably cannot survive for long anyhow.

But he is wrong in his claim: 12 million secret baht to purchase influence is a huge amount. And there is much about the overall plan that is still unknown, let alone the details. Leaked documents, for example, claim that the military felt it could buy off ''third parties including local and international media networks, both publicly and secretly''.

COMMENT: This is what disturbs me the most. Many leading influential individuals who are regularly given widespread coverage by the Thai media and views are listened to are being paid by CNS. No one dares mention this even though there is actual documentation.

I know you are probably asking yourself, what about The Nation that bastion of free speech. Well, no opinion pieces so far and their news coverage of the issue is so incompetent they call Dr Chaichuang Gen. Saprang's cousin, when he is Gen. Saprang's younger brother.
Perhaps they could, perhaps not.

The propaganda plan, now in tatters, was exposed and ridiculed in the exact media that the military planned to subvert. But while Thai newspapers and many websites have uncovered the basic plan, it should be noted that the CNS also was specifically targetting broadcast media as an outlet for their information campaign against Mr Thaksin and his cronies. That branch of media remains under military control that is tighter than at any time in the past 15 years.

Academics and the leading opposition parties who were supposedly to be the front men for the military propaganda also have been mostly silent in the wake of accusations that their opinions and influence were for sale, and for a low price at that.

CNS statements to the contrary, conceiving and launching this disinformation campaign was worse than stealing and publicising it.

The government and the military are expected to publicise their achievements, and to criticise opponents. The media and country would welcome any such information. It is unacceptable that the CNS would hire cronies and insiders with taxpayer money. But then, a virtuous regime would never have to resort to purchasing support.

COMMENT: I have also updated my post below with more summarised translations of the propaganda campaign.

All we hear from The Nation is that freedom of speech was worse under Thaksin. At least the Post is willing to admit the military stranglehold of the broadcast media which exists.


More Muslims Students Killed

Posted by Bangkok Pundit | 4/14/2007 07:38:00 PM

The other day defence volunteers killed 4 students and the army stated:

"attacked the volunteers with sticks and rocks and the volunteers were within their rights to fire at them out of self defence."


Today
:

Thai security forces have shot and killed three more Muslim boys, sparking fresh, angry protests by residents. Insurgents attacked a train and wounded two passengers in the deep South.

None of the youths in the troop incident was armed. Police said the paramilitary rangers were acting in self-defence.

The boys, aged 13 and 14, were killed late Friday by security forces in Pattani, one of three Muslim-majority southern provinces bordering Malaysia, police said.

They said the security forces opened fire after a group of five to 10 Muslim boys ran towards them as they tried to extinguish a blaze at a mobile phone base station.

"When security forces were working to extinguish the fire, the teenagers ran towards them and tried to attack the security forces," a police official claimed.

Three of the youths were killed and three wounded. None was armed, but police said the paramilitary rangers were acting in self-defence.

"They didn't know what to do but to protect themselves," Pattani police chief Somjitr Nasomyon said, referring to the soldiers who opened fire, killing three teenagers.

The killings sparked new protests by Pattani residents.

"They were angry about last night and they want to talk with the governor this afternoon," Somjitr said.


COMMENT
: Again, it comes back to training. Surely, shooting in the air or firing a warning shot should be the first step, but using lethal force.

UPDATE: The Nation reports:

Hundreds of angry local residents gathered on a main road near the Pattani Central Mosque shortly after burying the 13- to 15-year-old victims of Friday's shooting.

They said the three victims and two other injured boys were playing tag on the road just metres away from where a weekly open market was set up at the time of the shooting.

The soldiers, dispatched to the area near Ban Bana to investigate the torching of four mobile-phone relay outlets, opened fire when they thought the boys were charging at them.

Local Army commander Colonel Wanchai Paungkhumsa initially said the soldiers had acted in self-defence, saying gunshots were fired from where a group of youths was standing.

"They could not just sit idly by in that situation," Wanchai was quoted by the Associated Press as saying.

However, a police source who spoke on condition of anonymity said no shots had been fired at the soldiers.

The bodies of the boys were paraded through the village and buried yesterday morning in line with Islamic tradition. Shortly afterwards, local residents took their demonstration to the heart of Pattani, where about 300 protesters, mostly young men, called for a thorough investigation into the shooting of the young unarmed men.

Panu, Colonel Wirawan Pathompark, deputy commander of the Internal Security Operation Command, and Pol Maj-General Korkiert Wongworachart, commander of Pattani Provincial Police, met with Marudin Cheka, a relative of the victims.

The two sides agreed that the 12-man unit involved in the shootings would be investigated and, if found to have acted inappropriately, transferred out of the three southernmost provinces. There will also be a public apology to Ban Bana residents if the investigation finds against the unit.


COMMENT
: I am not quite sure whether I believe they were playing tag, but I find it a little convenient that the army is now mentioning shots now.


Getting the Story Straight

Posted by Bangkok Pundit | 4/12/2007 09:16:00 PM

Yesterday, 7 were killed in Yala. The Nation reports on how 3 were killed:

Gunmen yesterday attacked a school bus full of Islamic youths returning from a funeral.

Three were killed and seven injured.

Saibudin Ballathaya, 25, Aslan Tohtayong, 25, and Mahsudi Ali-mama, 12, died from gunshot wounds after a group of gunmen fired rounds at the moving school bus - a modified pickup truck.

The attack took place at 5.15pm at Tambon Kuen Banglang in Yala's Banang Sata district.

The students were from Bacho Islam Withaya, a private Islamic school in the district, and from Banang Sata Central Mosque.

The attack took the death toll in Yala yesterday to seven.

The government blamed the insurgents/terrorists, before changing its interpretation of events as AP reports:
A Thai army spokesman acknowledged Tuesday that four Muslim youths riding in a pickup truck had been shot dead by government-backed village defense volunteers, rather than Islamic insurgents as authorities had originally announced.

The defense volunteers panicked and opened fire on the truck when they thought they were being attacked on Monday, said army spokesman Col Akara Thiprot.

The incident, and its misreporting by the authorities, have inflamed passions in an already volatile area , sparking at least three anti-government demonstrations Tuesday.

The Nation reports on the new version of events (one student later died so now the death toll is up to 4):
Four students killed after angry clash in Yala on way back from funeral

The Army yesterday defended a group of government-backed Village Defence Volunteers over the death of four Muslim students, accusing the latter of provoking a fatal shoot-out on Monday evening.

Colonel Akara Thiprot said the four dead students, and seven others who were injured, " attacked the volunteers with sticks and rocks and the volunteers were within their rights to fire at them out of self defence."

According to Akara, the victims were part of around 100 Muslims returning from a funeral for a local official in Yala's Tambon Kuern Banglang in Bannang Sata district, who had been killed a day before.

Akara said the drama at 5pm started around midday, when about 100 funeral goers passed a checkpoint manned by a handful of local Buddhist villagers.

The two sides began to exchange heated words and some of the Muslims students and villagers jumped out of the pickup truck and charged at the checkpoint with rocks and sticks. They damaged some of the volunteers' belongings and wrecked the outpost.

Akara said the volunteers decided not put up a fight and retreated to a nearby Border Patrol Police outpost instead.

But in the late afternoon, on their way back from the funeral, anger was still high among the Muslims.

This time around the Buddhists volunteers stood their ground and fired at the unarmed Muslims, killing three on the spot . The fourth victim died yesterday morning at the hospital. Six others are still being treated for gunshot wounds.

"We have to blame the instigators on this one," Akara said.

Akara said just moments before the Muslims charged the outpost, somebody had fired a shot into the air. It was not known who fired the shot but it appeared to have stirred up the situation, making it even more tense.

Akara said there was no plan to take legal action against the volunteers, saying they had acted within the rules of engagement.

He said the authorities planned to get community and religious leaders of both sides to create an understanding of what happened.

He said Kuern Banglang area had been tense for months amid rising violence that fuelled mistrust and pitted Buddhists against Muslims.

The incident inflamed passions and sparked at least three anti-government protests yesterday.

It also put the spotlight on what analysts said was a poor state of affairs for village defence volunteers, which include Muslims, who are poorly trained but serve as a front line of defence in the region, where more than 2,000 people have been killed since January 2004.

COMMENT: Part of the problem here is that the government can't get its story straight. Many villagers in the southern border provinces don't trust the government as it is and well this just makes things worse.

The Nation reports:

IN Hat Yai, speaking to a pack crowd at seminar, Chaiwong Maneepileuk, president of the Newspapers Association of Southern Thailand, accused the Army of trying to cover up the Monday shooting death of four Muslim youths. He said the Army decided to come clean after they realised they were unable to cover it up and blamed it on the insurgents.


"I am as a stake holder of this country and I don't want to see violence. But I can't report lies to the public. The consequence is just too grave," Chaiyong said.


COMMENT
: Instead of focusing its public relations resources on Thaksin's government, maybe it should make a better effort of communicating accurate information with those who live in the southern border provinces. An element of spin is one thing, but blaming the terrorists when it fact it was the military who were behind the deaths is something completely different.

On the question of the deaths of the 4 students, it is difficult to second guess the villagers and I can't say for certain their response was not reasonable as I wasn't there, but if the report is accurate, shouldn't there be some middle ground between fleeing and then shooting and killing 4 people? What about shots in the air, rubber bullets and other warnings? I think the government needs to look at the rules of engagement. This comes back to training as well. Either properly train the volunteers or look at bringing other trained individuals into the area. If problems arise in an area and we have the volunteers retreating, did they have access to back-up or further reinforcements?

btw, the terrorists response was predictability violent:

Unrest in the deep South continues as a female Buddhist was burnt alive while a few others were injured from a bomb used against a passenger van in two separate incidents on Wednesday morning.

Police said insurgents shot Patcharaporn Boonsamas, 25, off her motorcycle as she was riding to her office in Yala town around 8 a.m. Then, although she was apparently still alive but badly wounded, they set fire to her body, completely burning it.

When police arrived they could not even identify the gender of the remains because it was so badly burnt. However, the victim's relatives appeared at the scene and claimed her body.

The attack took place in the populated municipal district, but villagers living nearby saw nothing at all, and were unable to help police with their investigation.

COMMENT
: I would like to look at the Buddhist community's response to this death in a later post.


CNS Propaganda

Posted by Bangkok Pundit | 4/09/2007 12:01:00 AM

(Last Updated 16 April 1:00 am)

Please treat this post as a Wiki type post. It will be updated and improved as time allows.

The Bangkok Post reports:

The Council for National Security (CNS) has allocated a 12-million-baht budget for a public relations campaign to counter deposed prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra's attempts to discredit the coup-makers, a source said yesterday.

The request for the money was submitted on Jan 24 and was approved by CNS chairman Sonthi Boonyaratkalin.

The budget has been divided into six portions of two million baht each to finance the campaigns operations covering a period of six months, the source said.

Chianchuang Kalayanamitr*, a younger brother of CNS deputy secretary-general Saprang Kalayanamitr, has been appointed head of the publicity team to make sure it turns out to be a successful campaign, the source said.

The campaign aims to pre-empt Mr Thaksin's attempts to sully the reputation of the coup-makers via his lawyer Noppadol Pattama, said the source.

The first month of the campaign in February was spent on explaining to the public the negative effects "Thaksinomics" has had on the country.

Seminars and discussions were held, essays and articles were written and published in the media to shed light on the mistakes of the previous government, such as the controversial privatisation of state enterprises - one of the signature policies of the Thaksin administration, said the source.

COMMENT: Given the information came from a Bangkok Post source and as Bangkok Post sources are reliable as a tuk tuk driver's claims of a Thai government gem sale, I thought it was prudent to see if there was any corroboration of the article's contents. Also, the article was thin on details and I wanted to see if there was more out there. It was then I discovered this article on Prachatai, a Thai language alternative news site, about the "information campaign". I should note for those whose can't read Thai the article has been written in conjunction with or based on information from the pro-Thaksin website, hi-thaksin.org, but this no longer seems an issue now given the CNS has admitted the documents are real.

Validity of Documents

Since first posting, there no longer seem to be any doubts as to the validity of the documents.

The Bangkok Post has a breaking news update:

Supreme Commander Boonsang Niempradit on Monday called on relevant agencies to investigate how an embarrassing document detailing a planned 12-million-baht covert public relations campaign against deposed prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra got to the pro-Thaksin camp for public consumption.

The Bangkok Post newspaper and Thai websites have taken up the story, and military officers appeared embarrassed and told conflicting stories on Monday.

CNS spokesman Col. Sansern Kaewkamnerd, said he believed the confidential documents reprinted on the websites were counterfeit.

Meanwhile, Council for National Security deputy chief Chalit Phukphasuk said he was not certain if the document that was posted on the www.hi-thaksin.org website was real. However, he said he believed that there is no corruption in this case.

The document was then published and discussed on Thai websites. This brought weekend government warnings to Prachathai.com and MThai.com that they were violating national security.

More senior officers did not deny the validity of the documents detailing the covert plans. Gen Boonsang said that leaking confidential documents was against the law.

Later though, Col Sansern admitted that the documents were real as The Nation reports:

The cousin of a key junta figure was chosen to head a Bt12-million government public relations campaign because "he is a professional and experienced at PR," Council for National Security (CNS) spokesman Colonel Sansern Kaewkamnerd said yesterday.

Chianchuang Kalayanamitr is a cousin of CNS deputy secretary-general Saprang. Sansern said the CNS could bargain with Chianchuang also because his was well-known to them. "We were able to reduce the budget from Bt25 million to Bt12 million because we could negotiate the hire," he said, after a CNS meeting yesterday.


COMMENT: I don’t think there is any doubt that the documents are real.

Who was the Leaker?

There is very little to go on, but the Bangkok Post reported that:

Maj-Gen Jirachai Detdamrong, head of the army's directorate of civil affairs who was recently transferred as deputy commander of the First Army Corps, denied he had leaked the information and the papers on the public relations strategies, saying he was not stupid enough to release a document that bore his own name.

Maj-Gen Jirachai was a classmate of ousted prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra in Class 10 of the Armed Forces Academies Preparatory School. However, he insisted the fact they were classmates did not necessarily mean he would always favour Mr Thaksin. He confirmed the PR strategy documents were genuine official papers.

Maj-Gen Jirachai said Mr Chianchuang was a professional in this field and thus he was a justified choice for the public relations job.

A source said Gen Saprang had already discussed the issue of the leaked papers with Maj-Gen Jirachai, who insisted on his innocence. Gen Saprang and CNS chief Gen Sonthi Boonyaratkalin were unavailable for comment yesterday.

COMMENT: You also have intra-CNS rivalries to consider. Was the leak an attack against Gen. Saprang or a leak in favour of Gen. Saprang showing those who dislike Thaksin that the CNS is serious about getting rid of “remnants of the Thaksin regime”?

The Documents

The Bangkok Post reports:

Three documents have been leaked to the media and posted on some websites. One is a written approval, signed by the CNS chairman on Feb 4, for hiring an information analysis and in-depth public relations team to work for the CNS for 12 million baht.

The second is a "highly confidential" letter signed on Jan 24 by Maj-Gen Jirachai requesting approval for hiring the team led by Mr Chianchuang. The last one is a document dated Feb 26, which details the strategies of the public relations team.

Most of what outline below is from the last document.

Objectives and Outcomes of the Propaganda Campaign

First, the overall objective of the campaign is to discredit and reduce the credibility of Thaksin and his lawyer by using a third party (they use the English term third party in brackets). This third party will the use media in the information campaign. Chianchuang Kalayanamitr* is the head of the campaign. The campaign will also try to bring human rights actions against Thaksin at the international level.

COMMENT: No specific mention of who this third party is. It reads like a Le Carre spy novel.

Second, one of the campaign objectives was to reduce the credibility of the "old power" (i.e Thaksin's government) and provide information on Thaksinomics to the public. A seminar was arranged on the 22 February and it was publicised in the Bangkok Post and Krungthep Turakit. This is what the Bangkok Post is referring to above.

COMMENT: I wonder, why the Post didn't mention their "involvement" in the information campaign? The news coverage doesn’t appear to be specifically engineered by the CNS, it is just a result of the seminars they arranged. So typical of these one-dimensional, one-sided, “academic” seminars in Thailand.

Third, stopping the privatisation of state enterprises is another objective. The idea of the objective is to show the damage that such privatisation will cause. The method of achieving this objective is to arrange a seminar and to coordinate with Dr. Wuthipong Preibjariyawat [a anti-Thaksin academic involved in the campaign against Thaksin] who is a National Legislative Assembly member. This will also involve with other NLA members Dr. Narong Chokvattana, Sophon Suphapong, Paisal Puetmongkol to bring the matter to the attention of the NLA so the NLA will approve it.

COMMENT: I understand what they mean here is to approve a draft of some bill or just a general decision. Chianchuang is perfect for this role, see below for more details.

The original topic of this post was going to be on how the CNS has openly taken a different economic philosophy from Thaksin. You have the anti-privatisation as well as elements of anti-globalisation and anti-capitalism which can be detected from Gen. Sonth’s public statements. I am not sure that all members of Surayud’s government share this view, particularly the new Finance Minister.

I don’t think the anti-privatisation issue was taken as an cynical ploy to gain support from the anti-Thaksin PAD and I see Gen. Saprang as behind this. His brother’s views are clear on this and the association with Prachai and such ilk gives an idea on their world view.

Fourth, one the objectives is to affect public opinion towards the "old power". The outcome is reported as the carrying of a protest sign in front of the Singaporean Embassy on 19 February which received widespread press coverage.

COMMENT: I kid you not. I am still trying to work out whether (1) the protesters were specifically engineered by the CNS propaganda campaign to protest in front of the Singaporean Embassy or (2) that a result of the anti-privatisation campaign is that it is resulting in people spontaneously protesting in front of the Singaporean Embassy. Obviously, (1) is disturbing. On the other hand, I wonder what kind of evidence the CNS has for them to think that their anti-privatisation campaign caused (2).

Courtesy of Prachatai, here is the alleged photo:

Fifth, use of radio, newspapers, TV, and the internet.

Use of radio: To achieve their objectives, they will, amongst other things, have a program on the Army's radio station and ask for time on private radio stations. 8am-9am initially on 126 stations and a further 36 stations in March. In contact with the Director of MCOT in regards to private radio stations

Use of newspapers: Making it easier for the people to understand and use cartoons. First, cartoon was published in Thai Rath on 27 January. There will be more cartoons later.

COMMENT: Again, was this a specific CNS engineered cartoon which Thai Rath published? Or they somehow claiming it as a success without stating how? If so, can they claim as “successes” every Manager cartoon lambasting Thaksin?

Use of TV: 11 corruption scandals will be brought to the public's attention. A TV program will be produced "Corruption of the Thaksin Regime" and have 11 episodes. Still in the negotiation process.

Use of Internet: Post messages on various websites.

COMMENT: SVL, did they not renew your contract?

Foreign Media: In the process of negotiating with Saatchi and Saatchi in a public relations campaign.

COMMENT: 12 million baht on its own won’t buy you much so what on earth are they talking about.

Bringing charges against Thaksin on a world stage: One reason is that it might lead to reconciliation in the South. Establish a committee of relatives for victims or relatives of Kru Se Mosque, Tak Bai Incident, and also those were executed to bring charges against Thaksin in a foreign court. In contact with a German lawyer.

COMMENT: Hmm. Kru Se mosque. I wonder how they will prosecute Thaksin on this one. The facts are not in dispute. The Deputy PM ordered the army not to storm the mosque. The army commander (Gen. Panlop) disobeyed the order stormed the mosque and killing all. Gen. Panlop doesn’t deny this, he wrote a book explaining why he did it. And how is Thaksin responsible? Guilt by association.

Sixth, Human rights abuses: In contact with Dr. Kraisak and his team.

COMMENT: Argh, good old Kraisak, who was one of the first (see comment at 12:43pm) coup supporters to go on the record.

Seventh, 80th Anniversary of HM the King: The plan is to let the people see the real image of the CNS and that they are soldiers for HM the King. They will do this by producing signs and books. A special song will be written.

COMMENT: I don’t think any comment is necessary.

*I am waiting for the outrage over nepotism since Gen.Saprang's younger brother is in effect responsible for the money. Now, I thought the coup was to get rid of such things after the "evil Thaksin regime" gave their cronies key positions.

Chianchuang is also facing a criminal trial on conspiracy charges over TPI (yes, that TPI) and this starts in 2 months. Dr Chianchuang is associated with the Thai Labour Campaign who like their anti-FTA friends always engage in rational debate (not!) as can be seen from this title of this article:

Protesters against Privatization under the Slogan:
'Selling Water & Electricity Means Killing Thai People'

Then we come to Dr Chianchuang:

In a document reporting the progress of the amendment of 1999 bankruptcy act; Dr. Chianchuang Kalayanamitr, a member of the Anti-Sell Out Law Committee, explained of one of the economic reform laws, ‘On 6 February 2003, 136,000 signatures were collected calling for the act to be amended (popular draft) and to be loaded as our urgent agenda.

Argh, you now know why he was involved with Prachai and TPI. These evil banks and foreigners have the audacity to demand their money back once it is lent out.

**I find it interesting that the stated reason was "national security" as opposed to lese majeste. Both Prachathai and MThai have threads were the contents of the documents are published. Coincidence? I don’t think so.


Southern Thailand and Outside Influences

Posted by Bangkok Pundit | 4/07/2007 10:19:00 PM

World Politics Watch reports:

However, a Western military analyst who has worked in Asia for many years, who spoke on condition of anonymity, believes the southern Thailand insurgents are being funded by the Saudi Arabia-based Islamic fundamentalist Wahhabi movement. He suggests that some of them travel to the Middle East for tactics training.

"The Wahhabis gained influence by setting up religious schools in southern Thailand, and nothing was done about it because the Thais have prided themselves on maintaining religious freedom. But this has been their undoing," the analyst told World Politics Watch.

"The Thai authorities have also got it into their heads that the southern Muslims are loyal Thai citizens first and Muslims second, but in fact there is a large degree of Muslim community support for the militants. There is a lot of deep-seated resentment of the Thais."

COMMENT: One such religious school with strong links to Saudi Arabia's Wahhabi movement is the Yala Islamic College in Yala. It has about 800 students and teaches hard-core Wahhabi beliefs. The college is headed by Dr. Ismail Lufti, a graduate of Riyadh’s Imam Muhammad bin Saud Islamic University, and reportedly receives funding from Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Kuwait (source).

This is how Zachary Abuza described Ismail Lufti in October 2003:

There is a lot of concern on the part of regional intelligence officials regarding the Thai Wahhabi leader and anti-western firebrand Ismail Lufti, whom they suspect s a member of JI. Although there is no evidence that he is a leader of JI, he is a very prominent and respected cleric with a similar world view.


Singapore's Dr Joseph Liow also believes (PDF) that Dr Lufti is not the head of JI in Thailand and rejected Hambali's overtures of creating a pan-Islamic state in Southeast Asia and in the group’s means of terrorist violence. One ICG report also is of the same opinion (page 32 of this report).  

However, this doesn't mean that Lufti is some pure saint as Zachary Abuza states:

One of JI’s leaders and a key planner of the October 2002 Bali bombing, Ali Ghufron (Mukhlas) was given refuge by Thailand’s leading Wahhabi cleric, Ismail Lutfi.

Hambali has also admitted to have spent 3 days with Dr Lufti before his arrest in Thailand in August 2003. When Dr Lufti was questioned by ABC (Australia) about meeting Hambali he started off denying it then proceeded to a "don't know" defence before seemingly admitting to some contact. While, people shouldn't be guilty of who they meet and talk to, I don't think Dr Lufti and Hambali were playing tiddlywinks for 3 days. Also, I don't think think that Hambali went through the whitepages and randomly chose Lufti before making overtures. Where there is smoke, there is often fire. The question is, what kind of fire?

More information about Lufti's College and other Saudi funding is available in this Strait Times article.

In an article in today's Bangkok Post (cache):

Gen Wattanachai Chaimuenwong, adviser to Prime Minister Surayud Chulanont, said the premier has revoked the offers made by the previous administration as it was felt that these forced the militants further into the shadows.

"Gen Surayud has cancelled [the rewards] to give them a chance to prove their innocence. There will be no fears the authorities will arrest them to claim rewards," said Gen Wattanachai, a former Third Army commander.

Among those with a price on their heads, Sapae-ing Basor, former principal of Thammawitthaya school in Yala, is regarded as the most wanted.

He is said to chair the secretive Dewan Pimpinan Party (DPP), which aims to create an independent state of Pattani.

Gen Wattanachai reportedly met five leaders of the Pattani United Liberation Organisation (Pulo), which has recently been restructured, on Thursday night to discuss the government's proposed political dialogue to end the unrest.

They also discussed the proposed Islamic bill, under which an Islamic administrative body would be established to supervise Islamic affairs.

Gen Wattanachai said that insurgent violence in the deep South has increased because Jemaah Islamiyah (JI) and al-Qaeda have come into play with help from an old power clique in Malaysia.

To help troops understand insurgent violence, the Army Military Intelligence Command has distributed a handbook to unit commanders in the deep South.

Besides background information and details of separatist movements, the 408-page handbook includes a list of more than 1,000 supporters and sympathisers.

According to the handbook, the DPP is a secret organisation formed to support Perjuangan Merdeka Patani, or the movement for an independent state of Pattani.

The DPP is divided into sections including foreign affairs, youth recruitment and training, psychological operations and economic affairs.

The Barisan Revolusi Nasional (BRN) Coordinate is a key element in the separatist movement, with more than 1,000 supporters and sympathisers across the three southernmost provinces and some parts of Songkhla. Its armed force is the Runda Kumpulan Kecil (RKK).

Citing statements by Islamic teachers and students who graduated in Indonesia, militants are said to have received weapons training in Indonesia and Malaysia, while female members also received medical training in Malaysia's Kedah state.

According to the book, Persatuan Mahasiswa Islam Patani (Selatan Thailand) Di Patani, an association of Thai students in Indonesia, takes care of the finances of the insurgency.

COMMENT: The idea that foreign money is supporting the insurgency is hardly surprising. I don't think the money comes from a single source as this article quoted in this post states. The Malaysian government gets upset with any statements of a "Malaysian connection" to the violence.

In case you are thinking that Gen. Wattanachai is some small-time advisor who Gen. Surayud doesn't listen well he isn't. As a Matichon weekly article (Vol 1388, 23-29 March, on page 27) reports  Gen. Wattanachai is one of PM Surayud's closest two friends. Surayud wanted him to be the Deputy PM for Security, but was overruled by Gen. Sonthi who wanted control of national security for the CNS. Surayud and Gen. Wattanachai were classmates at the Armed Forces Preparatory School together (Class 1). The other close friend is Defence Minister Gen Boonrawd Somtas, also a fellow Class 1 classmate.


Tarrin Who?

Posted by Bangkok Pundit | 4/06/2007 11:55:00 PM

The Bangkok Post reports:

The Department of Special Investigation has forwarded another case alleging irregularities involving the Financial Sector Restructuring Authority (FRA) and 17 former politicians, including former finance minister Tarrin Nimmanhaeminda, and state officials to the National Counter Corruption Commission (NCCC) for further investigation.

Director-general Sunai Manomai-udom said the DSI received another complaint from damaged party Wichit Saengthong and his group, alleging that the FRA illegally sold the assets of a business credit group and the BL 19-22 group to the Goldman Sachs Asia Finance Company without going through a bidding process.

The FRA agreed to sell the assets at 22.4 billion baht, or 19% of the total assets value of 115.8 billion baht, said Mr Sunai.

Goldman Sachs Asia Finance then assigned Bangkok Capital Mutual Fund to make a contract on its behalf.

After an initial investigation drawing on 170 witness statements and 5,000 documents, the DSI had now forwarded the case, with the names of 17 accused people, to the NCCC. They are accused of negligence of duty, he said.

"Former finance minister Tarrin Nimmanhaeminda is accused of negligence of duty and committing offences together with a private sector entity," said Mr Sunai.

COMMENT: Who is this former finance minister? Some people are thinking this is another example of corruption by the "Thaksin regime"? But no. Tarrin is no Thai Rak Thai member. He is a two-time Finance Minister and a Democrat "heavyweight". He was also the head of a certain bank.

So why no mention in the Post of his party affiliation?


Thanong Gets It Right!

Posted by Bangkok Pundit | 4/06/2007 09:07:00 PM

The highly intelligent Thanong Khanthong of that great, impartial newspaper, The Nation, has this thoughtful, calm and collected opinion piece in today's The Nation:

The Information and Communi-cations Technology (ICT) Ministry had no choice but to block access to YouTube after its owner, Google, refused to remove a video clip that insulted His Majesty the King. The ICT Ministry approached Google to protest about the film clip, but strangely enough, they were told that the company had no policy about content deemed offensive in this country.

Julie Supun, head of global communications for YouTube, was quoted in the International Herald Tribune as saying that the Internet presented "new and unique challenges". She added that the company was "disappointed" that the site had been blocked in Thailand.

"We are currently looking into the matter," Supun said in a statement on Wednesday. "YouTube reaches a wide global audience and strives to provide a community where people from around the world can express themselves by sharing videos in a safe and lawful manner."

Excuse me, what law is YouTube referring to - its own? Or that of Thailand? Instead of removing the controversial clip, YouTube acted as if it has every right to carry any clip sent in without any regard for laws or issues culturally sensitive to people in other countries.

YouTube understands that freedom of expression has its limits, and a cost. It is quick to remove any pornographic videos submitted by users, but when it comes to a video clip insulting His Majesty, it allows the freedom to run wild without any respect for Thai law or the feelings of the Thai people.

COMMENT: I am disgusted by these ignorant people who continually show no regard to the Thai law. It horrifies me whether it be YouTube or any other website or individual. Thanong has inspired me to find websites or individuals who have no respect for Thai law. Such websites must be banned and such individuals must be punished.

It is with this I turn to the Criminal Code and section 133 in particular which states (Council of State version available here):

มาตรา ๑๓๓๒๖ ผู้ใดหมิ่นประมาท ดูหมิ่น หรือแสดงความอาฆาตมาดร้าย...หรือประมุขแห่งรัฐต่างประเทศ ต้องระวางโทษจำคุกตั้งแต่หนึ่งปี ถึงเจ็ดปี หรือปรับตั้งแต่สองพันบาทถึงหนึ่งหมื่นสี่พันบาท หรือทั้งจำทั้งปรับ

[An accurate and faithful translation by moi: "Whoever defames, insults or threatens the .... or Head of a foreign State shall be punished with imprisonment of one to seven years, or a fine of 2,000 baht to 14,000 baht, or both imprisonment and a fine].

While there are many Heads of States we could look at, I will confine myself to the US Head of State, the US President. In my quest for finding perpetrators who show no respect for Thai law, I didn't need to venture far. I discovered that The Nation was involved in defaming or insulting George W. Bush. Evidence of these crimes is below.

1. Thanong Khantong himself in The Nation in 2004:

The only difference between Bush and Thaksin is that Bush is fighting a war in Iraq, while Thaksin is fighting one in our own backyard.

COMMENT: Surely this is an insult or defamation of Bush? Comparing him with Thaksin who was corrupt, committed acts of lese majeste, and subverted independent agencies.

2. The numerous insults of Bush by commentators at The Nation here. There are many other instances of Bush being insulted/defamed by commentators at The Nation here, here, and here.

3. Bush is called "dumb" in a letter to the editor. A news article in The Nation saying Bush has a “peanut-sized brain”. Both are insults/defamatory. Surely this enough for a complete ban of The Nation.

Please post any other examples of those website who defame/insult Bush and call for the Thai government to start banning such sites.

The opinion piece continues:

I have now come to believe that we can't avoid World War III. That's because we have so many arrogant people in this world - like the people at YouTube - who like to see things through their own glasses. How many wars or killings have happened in the past because people insulted the values and religious beliefs of others?

However, it was reported yesterday that the anonymous user who posted the video clip has withdrawn it from YouTube. But the damage has been done.

The Thai people worship the Lord Buddha and revere His Majesty. This is an established fact. Wherever you travel in this country, you'll confront these two lasting images, intertwined with each other as ultimate symbols of virtue. You can't imagine a Thailand without Buddhism and the monarchy. Without these two pillars, Thailand would be reduced to ashes.

A Swiss man has recently been sentenced to 10 years in prison because he was caught vandalising images of His Majesty the King while drunk. He knew about the lese majeste law, however he might have been under the influence of alcohol when he took the risk to break it.

This case was widely covered by the international press, which mostly had sympathy toward the Swiss man and criticised Thailand for keeping the most draconian lese majeste law on earth. Thais, however, looked at this case differently - most believed that the man was lucky not to have been trampled to death on the spot for his wild acts. I now have sympathy for the Swiss man and believe he will receive a pardon - after serving a brief time in prison for a crime he has confessed to.

Some time in May of last year, several months before the coup, a middle-level government official told me he was shocked by an underlying force at work to undermine the monarchy.

"In the past, whenever Interior Ministry officials or the police learnt about even the slightest activity to undermine the monarchy, they would get their act together and act fast. But now nobody is doing anything. They know that the monarchy is being undermined, but they are more interested to keeping their positions," he said.

Thaksin Shinawatra, then prime minister, had already used improper language on a number of occasions when referring to His Majesty. Then, he accused a "charismatic person beyond the constitution" as playing a behind-the-scenes role to undermine his electoral mandate. It was no secret that the "charismatic person" Thaksin referred to was General Prem Tinsulanonda, president of the Privy Council. The institution of the monarchy was drawn into this conflict with Prem by implication. One of the reasons that General Sonthi Boonyaratglin staged a coup to boot Thaksin out of office was because the former premier had been disrespectful to the monarchy. The matter has not ended.

Now, remnants of the previous regime still openly challenge the monarchy. They have set up www.tmctoday.com to mobilise a signature campaign appealing to His Majesty to dismiss Prem, who they allege to be the mastermind behind the coup. This campaign clearly shows disrespect toward His Majesty. Again, the police have been slow to react.

It is a tit-for-tat game. Last year, a campaign was launched to garner signatures to oust Thaksin. Now it is the turn of General Prem to face a similar campaign, aimed at confusing the political situation and dividing the country further.

I feel sorry about the present state of Thailand. I want the country to maintain its status as a Buddhist state and a Kingdom forever. Unfortunately, there are forces, from the outside and some from elements inside the country, trying to - intentionally or unintentionally - reduce us to a pagan, republic state.

COMMENT: I hope the police are not slow to react to the offenses I have detailed above.


Ironic Statement of the Day

Posted by Bangkok Pundit | 4/04/2007 09:59:00 PM

Earlier today Thaksin's lawyer:

Noppadon Pattama, legal advisor of ousted premier Thaksin Shinawatra, called on Prime Minister Surayud on Wednesday to stop criticising his boss.

Mr Noppadon's statement came one day after Gen Surayud used his visit to Japan to hit back at Mr Thaksin, saying the military coup was triggered by "alleged abuse of state power, widespread corruption, curtailment of media freedom and a disastrous human rights record."

Mr Noppadon said, "Instead of promoting reconciliation as his government vowed to do, Gen Surayud took the opportunity while he was abroad to blame and attack Mr Thaksin."

He also attacked the Assets Scrutiny Committee, a panel responsible for finding charges against the Thaksin administration, saying, "The Assets Scrutiny Committee is empowered by the junta, and they do everything the military rulers order."

Mr Noppadon added that corruption occurred in every government, including the current one installed by the coup makers.

He claimed that an influential figure demanded TV channel 5 operators to share their revenue with them. He also claimed that another influential figure asked for money from businessmen at Suvarnabhumi airport. However, he refused to say who they were.

Thai Rath's article directly quotes Noppadon in Thai and he doesn't reveal who he was referring to. Noppadon was saying that the influential figure was asking for a percentage cut of the revenue.

The CNS wasn't taking this accusation lying down as The Nation reports:

"It is impossible, because the wife of CNS chief Sonthi Boonyaratglin, is neither involved with the Channel nor has any position there."

He said that Noppadon was just trying to divert public attention from the corruption allegations against Thaksin.

Prime Minister Surayud Chulanont on Tuesday expressed confidence that the government can "pin down" Thaksin as investigators are wrapping up the graft probe against him by the end of the month.

"Noppadon has been inventing new allegations which are personal matter to move public attention from his boss. If he had evidence, he would have had to reveal the matter in public. He could have just gone ahead and lodged a complaint,'' Sensern said.

COMMENT: Oh the irony of the CNS complaining about others  making allegations to divert public attention and then having the audacity to say that people making allegations should make this information public. Perhaps, the CNS could apply this reasoning to the evidence that the "old power" was behind the Bangkok bombings? Or even provide evidence of Thaksin's corruption and other reasons behind the coup? It has been 6 months now and we are still waiting.

*I don't have a problem with Surayud criticising Thaksin. He can do so if he wants, but if he does criticise Thaksin, he or others shouldn't then complain if his lawyer/legal advisor then respond.


Translations

Posted by Bangkok Pundit | 4/03/2007 11:43:00 PM

This is not a substantive post and the sole purpose of this post is to set out a translation policy which I can refer back to when translating.

1. Accurate and faithful translation: I am not a professional translator, but agree with Tom's policy here and it in documents I have translated in the real world I try to keep close to the original as possible without it sounding like a word-for-translation. These translations probably equate to this definition of an "essentially literal translation". Not all of the translations I undertake will be full and accurate translations though, but for translating quotes, I think this is necessary as people interpret the quotes to give them meaning. When you start leaving out words and paraphrasing, you can leave quotes open to interpretation.

2. Summarised translation: This is what I refer to when I don't undertake an accurate and faithful translation. Such a translation would equate somewhere between a functional translation and a paraphrased translation. A functional translation is defined as:

In this type of translation, the translator tries to make the English function the same way the original language functioned for the original readers.
...
However, in trying to make the translation easy to read, the translator can omit concepts from the original text that don't seem to have corresponding modern English equivalents. Such a translation can produce a readable text, but that text can convey the wrong meaning or not enough meaning. Furthermore, function-equivalent translations attempt to make some books readable on levels at which they were not intended. For instance, Song of Songs was not written for children. Paul's letter to the Ephesians is very sophisticated and not intended for novices.

Summarised translations are my preferred method of translations simply as it is quicker to do. With a limited number of hours available for blogging I need to find the best use of my time so summarised translations it is.

Finally, I just wish to note that this is a blog and not a professional publication with sub-editors and editors. I have no doubt I make mistakes. In real life, I would print something out and read it to check for mistakes, but I don't as I simply don't have the time. If you believe you have spot a translation error, please let me know by e-mail or in a comment on the post.


Thirayuth and Jaran

Posted by Bangkok Pundit | 4/02/2007 11:52:00 PM

This is from February, one of those unfinished drafts which I am quickly trying to tidy up and post now.

The Nation reports:

Student leader turned academic Thirayuth Boonmi no longer speaks on behalf of democracy, National Human Rights Commissioner Jaran Dithapichai says.

"He is no longer in the pro-democracy camp but on the opposite side," Jaran told The Nation yesterday.

Jaran and Thirayuth - now a lecturer at Thammasat University - were members of the 1973 pro-democracy movement that led to the end of the Thanom Kittikachorn government. They were among those who fled into the jungle and fought with the Communist Party of Thailand.

Thirayuth is now a "supporter of the new dictatorial regime", Jaran said.

"He's essentially trying to tell society the junta is not dictatorial enough. I'm very disappointed.

COMMENT: Personally, I don't like pronouncements that people no longer speak on behalf of democracy, but I agree with Jaran that Thirayuth is a supporter of the government and CNS, but we knew that in October 2006:

On Wednesday came the last straw. Thirayuth Boonmi, arguably the apex of all "Octoberist" democracy fighters in Thailand in the past three decades, expressed confidence in the interim government installed by the military that staged the September 19 coup d'etat.


What was astonishing to me about Thirayuth's support of the government is that Thirayuth has opposed almost every government in the past, but the government he supports now came to power by a coup. He was no fan of Chuan either. Is this the first government he has ever supported? Only a few months earlier Thirayuth had a different view on military coups though. From March 2006 in The Nation:

A military coup is definitely unacceptable, he stressed.

The article continues: 

"Although he was right when it came to criticism of the [Thaksin Shinawatra] government, his stance and aim is now to support the military order," Jaran said.

"He has changed. And, not only that, he has shifted into the camp opposite the people's democratic force," he added.

The commissioner said Thirayuth's alleged exit from the democracy movement had happened some time ago.

"Deep down these [intellectuals] are not pro-democracy. Most intellectuals do not believe in the democratic order. They believe in the individual. They believe the present regime is less evil than the Thaksin regime.

"Actually, the junta is worse. But, that's why they are calling for the current government to become more dictatorial and single-minded," he said.

Jaran also accused the media of siding with the junta, saying 70 per cent of the media supported the junta and the government it appointed.

"People who oppose the junta are branded either pro-Thaksin or accused of having stood by and done nothing while Thaksin was in power.

"Seventy per cent of the news media still criticises Thaksin to shore up the legitimacy of the military dictatorship. [Journa-lists] dare not criticise the present order, or if they do they do so as supporters [of the junta]," he said.

"There are so many issues not being discussed by the media because it keeps dwelling on Thaksin."

Jaran said the pro-Thaksin PTV, or People's Television, should be allowed to broadcast.

It plans to go on air on Thursday despite government threats to take legal action against it.

"It has the right to communicate and interpret things as it sees them. This is a citizen's right. Nothing stopped community radio from broadcasting [in the past]," Jaran said.

COMMENT:  I am not quite sure I agree with his views on the individual, but I agree with much of what he says here. For more commentary on the National Human Rights Commission's views on the "evils" of individualism, have a look at this recent post by Tom.

Thirayuth though has some complaints about Surayud's government and the CNS. He thinks they are being too slow in ridding the country of Thaksin:

The government is wrong to think that in its role as an interim administration it only has to keep the country stable and not bother to ''de-legitimise Thaksinocracy'', prominent social critic Thirayuth Boonmi said yesterday. He said the problem was with the government's attitude as it continued to be impervious to the necessity to flush out remnants of the previous government.
...
Mr Thirayuth said the priority of the government, CNS, National Legislative Assembly and independent agencies is to de-legitimise the policies the Thaksin government built.

COMMENT: I mean it is not as if we are devoid of anti-Thaksin propaganda, it is all we hear. God knows what Thirayuth has in mind. I suppose the problems in southern Thailand are not important. I think Thirayuth needs to re-assess his priorities.


Articles of Note

Posted by Bangkok Pundit | 4/01/2007 02:34:00 AM

This article is via TJTS - who you should check out for his regular fiskings of The Nation's editorials and opinion pieces. He has saved me the time and the energy because really it would be a full-time job to point out all the nonsense that The Nation publish.

In the article, Rodney Tasker essentially looks at Prem's role over the years. I have excerpted some choice quotes with some commentary. The article starts:

Many commentators on Thailand's confusing political scene now dwell on post-election scenarios under a new constitution later this year.
...
Such analyses miss the main political point, however, which increasingly involves a small handful of non-professional politicians. That means His Majesty King Bhumibol Adulyadej, Chief Privy Councilor Prem Tinsulanond, current interim Prime Minister Surayud Chulanont, military-junta chief General Sonthi Boonyaratklin, and royal heir apparent Crown Prince Maha Vajiralongkorn.

In other words, all serious talk about Thailand's future direction should now center squarely on the monarchy.

COMMENT: Tasker is right it should, but it won't as it is not a topic which can be fully discussed in Thailand. Tasker then examines the rehabilitation of the Crown Prince which Tasker looked at in November.

The article then continues:

In the immediate background is King Bhumibol's chief aide Prem. As the man most trusted by the monarch in his capacity as Privy Council president, Prem is viewed as having a direct hotline to the monarch. As long as King Bhumibol remains on the throne, Prem will remain a crucial political factor - though the thought vexes those seeking a quick return to Thailand's democratic path, once a new general election is called at the end of the year, as promised by the military coup makers.

Recently, such sentiments took a hard turn when certain anti-coup groups demonstrated outside Prem's Bangkok residence, accusing him of being the "mastermind" behind the September coup. Prem later brushed the incident off when he was reported as telling the press: "I don't think I was attacked - there are people saying things, however."

COMMENT: The anti-junta groups are attacking Prem, but again this started months ago - here are some selected attacks against in Prem from November last year. Many of them question whether Prem speaks for HM the King.

Does Prem really only want to remain a crucial political factor under the present monarch? I believe Prem has his own views on the role of the institution and would look to continue his role, if he is still able to from a health perspective, in the post-King Bhumibol era. Thus, the rationale for the coup.

The article continues:

Prem enjoyed a relatively peaceful spell as unelected prime minister from the time he stepped into the breach as army commander in 1980 to his forced dissolution of Parliament in the face of a looming personal parliamentary no-confidence debate in 1988.

Prem was frequently viewed by critics at the time as a do-nothing, taciturn leader, and the eight-year period he ruled could in no way be described as full democracy.

COMMENT: Relatively peaceful spell? Over Prem's last couple of years the protests over his leadership grew and grew which is remarkable because of the limited media freedom at the time. There are a number of parallels with Thaksin's last year in office.

Paul Handley, of that book about HM the King, makes mentions of Prem as a do-nothing leader. I briefly excerpted part of it here albeit only on Prem's lack of success on the anti-poverty front - it was meant as a more sarcastic dig. I strongly recommend that you read Tettyan's comment here on that post which looks at some of Prem's accomplishments as PM. I never got around to replying to Tettyan's comment at the time, but I agree with what he says about Prem's accomplishments.

The article continues:

While a generally respected figure, Prem was also seen by some elected politicians as a taciturn eminence grise, watching and evaluating various prime ministers from behind the scenes. Taciturn, that is, until the advent of Thaksin with his bombastic and corrupt administration that over time was criticized by many Thais for trying to bypass the king's authority.

COMMENT: Tasker just can't avoid the little digs as if it is Thaksin's own fault. If Thaksin had played along with Prem throughout his term in power, would Prem wanted to have got rid of him? I don't think so. I think Tasker's summing up of the situation of Thaksin "trying to bypass the king's authority" is inaccurate. Thaksin tried to bypass Prem.

The problem with Prem's role of watching and evaluating is that he just doesn't watch and evaluate, he gets fully involved which McCargo's excellent journal article details in full.

The problem with Prem's involvement is strangely enough best summarised by the anti-Thaksin Kaewsan:

Assets Examination Committee member Kaewsan Atibodhi, meanwhile, said the country was in jeopardy as the government actually had no power to rule the country. Instead, the only man [Prem] who held any real clout did not need to be responsible for anything, he said.

"If the system carries on like this, it will finally crumble," Kaewsan added.

COMMENT: I agree Prem's role is about "power without responsibility".

The article continues:

It was then that Prem decided to play a more decisive role on the public stage - particularly when Thaksin was seen to be trying to wrap up control of the military through the elevation of his pre-cadet Class 10 mates to crucial military posts, including those that oversaw Bangkok's security. Prem was and is seen as a patrician figure overseeing the military on the king's behalf, and the institution itself was viewed as the one arm of central power that Thaksin had been unable to subdue - as was clearly demonstrated by the September 19 coup that dislodged him.

COMMENT: Prem played a role because he knew Thaksin had lost power and had been weakened. Prem wanted to reassert his power over the top military positions because he knew Thaksin couldn't stop him.

The article continues:

Thaksin seemed to view this as a threat posed by Prem - and by extension the palace - to his apparent program to acquire almost total power. His famous quip in mid-2006 expressing irritation over a "charismatic figure beyond the constitution" was widely seen as a remark directed against Prem. And Prem, who symbolically started to wear his old military garb, was indeed at the time making uncharacteristically public and oblique references to Thaksin's perceived irresponsible use of power.

COMMENT: Umm. It was a threat posed by Prem. The coup couldn't have been possible if Thaksin's classmates dominated the Bangkok security posts. I don't see it as a   Prem sticks his beak in whenever he wants to and then when things go badly, as they are now, he starts to blame others and wipes his hands of the mess. Maybe he should consider stepping back and seeing what happens.

The article continues: 

Anti-coup activists continue to deride Prem as an obstacle to Thailand progressing to true democracy, while more conservative groups, including Bangkok's traditional elites, view his presence as necessary to prevent the country from sliding back into a Thaksin-style, more selfish, materialistic style of government.

COMMENT: The always irrational The Nation had this to say about the linking of Prem with the coup:

Soldiers marched out of their barracks and tanks rolled to heave Thaksin out of office. With or without Prem on the sidelines, the military intervention was irreversible. The real issue was about Thaksin - not Prem.

Prem's linkage to the coup, be it a real or invented charge, is irrelevant. The military would not have intervened if Thaksin had embraced the art of compromise, a vital element in a sustainable democracy.

COMMENT: Rubbish. If Prem had not have supported the coup, does the Nation think the coup would have happened? I don't. It is not just linking Prem with the coup which the protesters are doing it is linking Prem with his entire role in politics as this protester states:

"Prem is the main pillar of dictatorship and not democracy, as some have dubbed him. He has been doing these things for 30 years and the country is not progressing," Somyos told the crowd to some jeers.

COMMENT: Does The Nation think Prem's actions are "irrelevant"? Again, they predictably return to their mantra "it is all Thaksin's fault". Surely, if Thai Rak Thai did badly in the election, which would be held at the end of last year had not it not been for the coup, then this would have been the time of compromise. Not just because a minority of the population didn't like him. Prem only compromised when he was forced out as PM.

Also, if a second coup happened now and got rid of Surayud and say a military leader took over? Would it be Surayud's fault for failing to compromise? Actually, I am sure the Nation will find some way to blame it on Thaksin, as he is to blame for everything nowadays. What about assigning some blame towards Prem? Now, that would be a novel concept!