Update on the Deep South

Posted by Bangkok Pundit | 3/20/2008 08:10:00 AM

Bangkok Post (cache):

Two members of the Runda Kumpulan Kecil (RKK) insurgent group were killed in a gunfight with soldiers in Raman district of Yala yesterday. One of them was identified as Sunawa Yago, 28, a core leader of the group with a 500,000-baht bounty on his head. The other was not identified.

Police said the two men opened fire on the patrol, which shot back. None of the soldiers were injured. A .357 pistol and a 9mm pistol used by the insurgents in the gunfight were recovered.

In Raman district, a grocer was shot dead by a man posing as a customer at his shop yesterday.

The gunman also planted a bomb that was aimed at killing police called to the crime scene, but it was detected and defused in time.

In Bannang Sata district, a border defence volunteer was killed by a motorcycle pillion rider while on his way home yesterday. The gunman also took the volunteer's 11mm pistol.

In Muang district, two people were killed by a hand grenade hurled into a mosque yesterday.

In neighbouring Narathiwat, nine militant suspects, one a woman, were arrested in raids in Rueso, Rangae, Si Sakhon and Cho Airong districts.

Police seized materials believed to be used by the suspects in attacks on public places, including 50kg of metal spikes and PVC pipes. The nine suspects denied all the charges.

In Pattani, a suspected militant was killed and three soldiers wounded in an armed clash during a pre-dawn raid in Khok Pho district.

Another insurgent suspect was arrested and ammunition and a transceiver were seized.

BP: On the attack in the mosque, there have been similar attacks in the past and local Muslims have perceived it is either it is government violence or connected with Buddhist vigilante groups. Will we see protests by local Muslims again?

Reuters reports there was a connection between the shooting of the grocer and the two RKK members killed:
One of the suspected rebels killed by soldiers was identified as 28-year-old Sunava Yako, believed to be a leading member of an insurgent group and carried the bounty, they said.

Sunava was riding on a motorcycle which soldiers chased after a 70-year-old Buddhist man was shot dead at a grocery store in Yala, one of the four southern provinces where more than 2,800 people have been killed in four years of insurgent violence.

The motorcycle driver was also killed. Both carried automatic pistols and police were checking to see how many other attacks they had been used in, Police Lieutenant General Adul Sangsingkaew told reporters.

"The country is fortunate to see these two men killed," Adul said.
...
More troop deployments to the region after a new army chief took office in October had reduced the number of attacks and deaths in the past four months, although the 2007 death toll was the highest since the insurgency began in 2004, an analyst said.

The death toll declined to 35 in February from 65 in November 2007, said Srisompob Jitpiromsri, head of the Deep South Watch think-tank in Pattani who catalogues all incidents in the region, an independent sultanate until annexed by Thailand a century ago.

Nearly 800 people were killed in 2007, which also had the highest monthly total of 103 in May, he said.

"More troops and searches mean fewer incidents, but it won't be sustained as long as there are still a lot of uncertainties on the policy level," Srisompob told Reuters, referring to the new five-party coalition government which took office last month.

New Prime Minister Samak Sundaravej has not yet set out a policy on the separatist insurgency.

BP: Issara News Centre figures differ, but also show a drop since November. According to Issara News Centre, there had been 65-89 deaths each month between May-November (89 in November) versus only 41 in February (25 for 1-15 and 16 for 16-29) - as I blogged a few weeks ago, the Bangkok Post was incorrect to say the violence was escalating. I am cautious to say that we have turned a corner as last year there was less violence in January and February than the rest of the year - see chart here. By the end of April, we should have a better idea of any trends.

Chalerm is in the region visiting. Finally, this quote from AFP:
Srawut Aree, a professor of Muslim studies at Bangkok’s Chulalongkorn University, said the government has made little progress in easing the violence because it has failed to identify any of the militancy’s leadership.

“The problem is the government still cannot recognise real actors behind violent attacks,” Srawut said. “Militants have never issued statements or claimed responsibility.”

BP: Chalerm said a few days that he has no idea how to solve the violence. Perhaps, identifying the key leaders would be helpful.

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