AP:
Tourism has been hit hard by Thailand's political crisis, which has seen the prime minister removed from office, a state of emergency imposed and lifted, key airports shut down by demonstrators and tenacious anti-government protesters occupying the grounds of the prime minister's office for three weeks.
Parliament's scheduled selection of a new prime minister Wednesday seems unlikely to put an end to tensions, as the protest alliance has already rejected the choice of Somchai Wongsawat, who currently holds the job in a caretaker capacity.
Many fear a prolonged crisis could further weaken the tourism sector, which brought in roughly $16 billion in revenue last year, about 6.5 percent of Thailand's gross domestic product.
Governments overseas have issued warnings about traveling to Thailand. Hotel occupancy has fallen by 40 percent, according to the Thai Hotels Association. International arrivals are down 30 percent from this time last year, said the Association of Thai Travel Agents.
Thai Airways is flying with 20 percent fewer passengers than the same period last year, company officials said. The Mandarin Oriental Bangkok, the city's most famous hotel, has vacancy rates around 50 percent, the manager told reporters.
A weak global economy was already expected to take a chunk out of tourism. The political chaos, which has left one dead and dozens injured, has only made things worse.
"We're worried, of course, but what can we do?" said Apichart Sankary of the Association of Thai Travel Agents. "We have had crises before ... but this is the first time it's been really bad."
A&F Tour, a travel agency in Bangkok, has had three groups cancel their trips for November, costing the company nearly $12,000.
"We're a small company so that's a lot," said Franz Dobersberger, the managing director.
If the chaos drags into the key holiday season, the Tourism Authority of Thailand fears the number of tourists this year will fall nearly 8 percent to 14 million. The group has been holding weekly "crisis management meetings" with trade leaders since last month.
While the protests have been mostly limited to the prime minister's compound and nearby areas in the capital, Bangkok, the ramifications have been felt elsewhere in the country.
Protesters briefly shut down airports in the popular southern beach resorts of Phuket and Krabi, and threatened action at the capital's main international airport, but never followed through.
...
The caretaker government is well aware of how badly the unrest has hurt tourism.
Acting Prime Minister Somchai lifted a state of emergency Sunday, 12 days after it was imposed, to "bring back the smile to the country once again, as we are called 'The Land of Smiles.'"
"We have to restore outsiders' confidence, especially tourists, that we are a peaceful country and have no more conflict," he said.
Prakit Chinamourphong, president of the Thai Hotels Association, ticked off other blows the industry has weathered: the downturn after the Sept. 11 attacks, the SARS epidemic in 2003, the tsunami in 2004.
"We have never had business as bad as it now," he said.
BP: My point of this post is that some seem to believe that the state of emergency was the problem and things would all be rosy after it was lifted. Case in point:
University of Thai Chamber of Commerce (UTCC) Economic and Business Forecasting Centre director Thanawat Palavichai said he expected the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) will react positively to the lifting of the decree.
He said that confidence in tourism and investment would be restored and boosted to a normal level following the end of the decree.
BP: Travel advice for most countries is largely unchanged - see here, here, and here. When protesters can seize of airports and go unpunished delaying travel plans and leaving tourists stranded, as per the typical news story blurb, this has a much greater impact than a state of emergency. It is also the current political crisis and the uncertainity on what might happen which has a greater affect.
The State of Emergency was the big trigger event that caused mass cancellations because an SoE obligates (responsible) governments to issue travel warnings. Up to the point of the issuance of government warnings were minimal, sporadic and disruption was limited. However, the critical point as you point out is that even by removing the SoE it will not immediately kick start tourism. That will now take time. However, if no more SoEs or other suspension of normal liberties occur things will pick up but how long will it take? In the meantime Thailand could be in for a lower than normal tourist season.
Thailand also faces other problems that affect tourism. The southern situation probably doesnt encourage cross border Malaysian tourism and Malaysian tourism used to be the biggest single group of tourists to Thailand. No doubt Cambodian tourism is also lowered now that border issues have surfaced. Many westerners may not think much of cross border Cambodian and even Malaysian tourism but to some communities it is a very major piece of the local economy and the sheer scale of it adds up. It also is often part of an econmoy that heads straight to small local businesses and local people rather than being routed through huge businesses, so the loss of it can have quite large effects.
occasional poster
I agree with "occasional poster" that the SoE has the larger effect on tourism. I will also add that an SoE would in most cases nullify travel insurance coverage and this is also another reason for tourists cancelling their trips.
Bkkian
Bkkian: I would be interested in which country the travel insurance would be nullified.
If one was injured from political violence without a state of emergency, it wouldn't help.
Singapore is one of the few countries to issue warning about not traveling and the FM announced on Sunday they weren't updating this after the SOE had been lifted.
http://www.free-spirit.com/downloads/Freespirit_Policy_08.pdf
war, invasion, acts of foreign enemies, hostilities or warlike operations (whether war
be declared or not), civil war, rebellion, revolution, insurrection, civil commotion
assuming that portions of or amounting to an uprising, military or usurped power;
http://www.travelbility.co.uk/documents/cms/travelbility_policy.pdf
http://www.travelinsurancedirect.com.au/wording/policy_290408.html#9
War risks, civil commotion, terrorism, (except under sections B, C and D unless
caused by nuclear, chemical or biological attack), sonic bangs, radioactive
contamination.
"bangkok pundit", I got the info about the travel insurance issue talking with a woman who works in travel industry during a hotel reception. I am not an expert myself on this matter, so do not know which companies the travel insurance would be nullified. The woman did emphasize that the main effect of the SoE seemed to be psychological as potential tourists perceived that it was very dangerous everywhere in Bangkok. So when her agents tried to convince the customers not to cancel trip b/c that it's still on the whole safe in Bangkok, the customer wouldn't believe the agent and say someting like "if it's safe to travel why is there a official state of emergency declared?" She also said the customers would also mention concerns about travel insurance cover as an additional reason to cancel trip. Perhaps on the insurance issue it is more accurately about political violence rather than the SoE itself affecting coverage as you pointed out.
Bkkian
This madness at Bangkok must come to and end effective immediately, it is outragous for the Army to do nothing about the PAD protestors, the lack of action shows that they seem to be either with them on the plot plan or strongly supportive of them, all countries of all 4000 nationals should condemn this behaviour as their Human Rights are being violated!
At this point they can be considered as prisoners!
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http://thailanddemocracyviolation.blogspot.com/