I already blogged the other day that Somchai should not go on his familitarisation trips to neighbouring countries at the moment and I see Kavi agree with me in his op-ed today. I agree with him for the reasons he states, but I take issue with this:
Indeed, it is absurd for Somchai to think his government could garner much-needed support and legitimacy from abroad. The unexpected large numbers of injuries on Tuesday have caused great concerns among the international community, with international human rights organisations and campaigners condemning the government's use of force and calling for an investigation of the incident. Police's excessive uses of forces and the nature of Somchai's order will be the bone of contention. The prime minister also failed to consult the ad hoc Committee to Monitor Unrest, set up during the imposition of emergency decree in early September.
BP: Nothing yet (at time of writing) by either HRW or Amnesty so who are these international human rights organisations who have condemned the government? Different google news searches brings up nothing. I am not saying any of these groups support harsh crackdowns, but it is still uncertain about what caused all the injuries. Tear gas is commonly used by police worldwide and certainly when some of the protesters are armed. Maybe some of these groups aren't as naive as some of The Nation's editorial staff as to what the PAD can do.
I am also still trying to understand the basis for the use of "excessive force" and why it is deemed excessive. Is it because they think that the use of tear gas was not just justified? Or because they think the police used guns to shoot at the protesters and fragmentation grenades? This doesn't mean there might have been better ways to deal with the situation, but I don't see the use of tear gas as excessive - odd, I don't remember when the police used tear gas against the UDD/DAAD rallies last year that there was this level of concern.
btw, the state of emergency is no longer in place, so why consult this Committee? It is an ad hoc committee too.
Will Somchai even dare to leave the country right now?
We now have Chavalit calling for a coup as the only way out. We hear a cacophony of a coup is not the right way from many. We hear some generals are not happy with Anupong's inaction. All this talk of coups is worrying as I am sure the level of talk would not be this high if there were not a raised chance of it happening.
Put this into the context of Tuesday. From what we know, it seems clear that in the Monday cabinet meeting the doves won the day and negotiations were agreed. At some point after that the hawks contermanded the idea and we had the events unfold as they did. The PPP hawks definitely have the upper hand right now in the party and will probably be thinking along the lines of head for an election and make sure we win with a mandate of constitutional change our way. Already they are reportedly moving gernors and interior ministry officials into strategic positions to influence any vote outcome. The election just needs o be timed right to avoid everyone being timed out by a disolution of the party just after a house disolution.
How will the bureaucracy react to the thought of a constitutional ammendment to unfetter? I doubt it will be with flowers and wais. It will be interesting to watch the line Anupong takes now as he is squeezed from both sides. Unless there is a dramatic turn on negotiations his position only gets more difficult.
This looks like it will become an even bigger mess with any idea the bureaucracy may bodysnatch the PPP or do a deal with their moderates looking increasingly distant at this point.
I am not surprised to see the great institution distance itself from any side right now. If an event occurs they will need to be seen publically as distant from it.
occasional poster