Just when I was going to write a post about what other measures the government would try to push through given that Thaksin's arrival and activities provides cover, the BOT announce at 4pm on a Friday afternoon that capital controls are no more:

The Bank of Thailand eventually decides to scrap the 30 per cent capital reserve requirement, effective on Monday.

The measure has been in place since December 18, 2006.

Ahead of the press conference at 4pm, Amara Sriphayak, senior director of the bank's domestic economy department, on Friday said that many factors support the removal.

"There are many factors supporting the removal of the capital controls but we need to wait and see how to remove them and when," she said.

COMMENT: Hardly surprising, Surapong has been trying not to publicly pressure - lest he be accused in interfering with the independent central bank - but I thought it was clear if you read through the lines that the more talk there was talk that the measures would be lifted the more pressure it put on the off-shore baht figure as people took positions on the baht being lifted essentially, from what I understand, forcing the BOT to lift the capital controls. Though, one can't say that Surapong pushed the BOT into doing so, he just gave them a gentle shove, but this created a domino-effect.

There has been a somewhat universal agreement that Dr. Surapong is inexperienced on financial matters and his previous career as a medical lecturer has not prepared him to be a Finance Minister (i.e his medical training is unrelated to finance). Some examples of what has helped form and shaped this narrative are:

FT reports:

Mr Surapong’s potential appointment as finance minister has raised concerns in Thailand’s business and financial circles that he lacks experience. But he insisted that he would “try to make the right decisions”, relying on a team of advisers drawn from business people, and macro-economic experts.

Asia Sentinel reports:

The front runner for finance minister now appears to be Surapong Suebwonglee, a former student leader in the 1970s who is not known for his financial acumen.

The Nation's profile of the Cabinet states:

Now 50, Surapong has a medical degree from Mahidol University. He is one of The "Tula (October) people" - a student involved in the October 1973 who had to flee to the jungle after the crackdown in October 1976.

Moi has even commented:

He is very articulate, but lacks substantial economic qualifications.

The Nation in an editorial:

Earlier, business leaders warned about any attempt to appoint Surapong Suebwonglee, the PPP secretary-general, as finance minister. Like Samak, Surapong does not have experience in managing economic matters and the financial markets.

Reuters:

"We need a person who can get the job done and communicate with the public," said the 50-year-old Surapong, whose family owns a chain of weight-loss clinics.

His lack of economic experience has unnerved some business leaders, and fuelled speculation that Thaksin, who is living in exile in Hong Kong and London, will be calling the fiscal shots.

Surapong, a former minister in Thaksin's government, said he would have no problem consulting his former boss on economic matters "when an appropriate time and opportunity comes".

He was handed the post after two former finance ministers, fearing their hands would be tied, refused it, analysts say.

"People are watching how this doctor-and-nurse team handle the economy," Chulalongkorn University economist Somphob Manarangsan said, referring to the deputy finance minister, a former nurse. "How aggressive will they be in managing problems?"

A lecturer at a prestigious state medical school before entering politics, Surapong was a founding member of Thaksin's Thai Rak Thai (Thais Love Thais) party that won landslide election victories in 2001 and 2005.

As deputy health minister in the first year of Thaksin's administration, Surapong implemented a cheap healthcare plan which proved very popular in TRT's rural heartland.

Asia Times:

Finance Minister Surapong Suebwonglee, a former communist rebel who trained as a medical doctor before entering politics, has no professional experience in the finance sector.

Thitinan:

Surapong Suebwonglee has had no experience in finance and economics, he is not seen as an expert that we need at this time when Thailand's facing external challenges from the US sub-prime crisis.

AFP:

The appointment of Surapong raised concern among some business leaders as the 50-year-old medical professor-turned-politician had no financial background, while Thailand's economy is challenged by high oil prices and weak domestic demand.

"He will have to surround himself with a lot of advisers" due to his lack of economic experience, said Promon Suthiwong, chairman of Board of Trade, a major Thai business group.

"Hopefully, he is smart enough to learn very quickly," Promon said.

Before entering politics in 2000, Surapong taught medicine at Bangkok's Mahidol University, his alma matre.

AFP again:

The former spokesman for Mr Thaksin's government, Surapong Suebwonglee, is leading the finance ministry - even though he is a medical doctor by training.

There are many more examples. Not all of the statements above are inaccurate, but I do think they do not provide the full picture. What is the full picture, you ask? Well, my jaw dropped recently when I read that Surapong has an MBA from Chulalongkorn (from 1990) (yes, his MBA is from Sasin), but his medical training is continually emphasised (see AP). Why on earth in none of the recent articles I have read/mentioned above, did they not think to mention his MBA? It is not as if his MBA has not been mentioned by the media before, it just seems it is not convenient to mention it now. Sasin are not shy on mentioning he is an alumni,* so why should the news media be?

I am sure we can all joke about poor educational standards in Thailand, but if Mahidol is called a prestigious medical school (which I think it is) surely Sasin qualifies as Thailand's premier business school. Here is the wiki blurb on Sasin:

Sasin Graduate Institute of Business Administration of Chulalongkorn University (Sasin) was founded by Chulalongkorn University with the support and collaboration of the Kellogg School of Management and the Wharton Business School.

COMMENT: Yeah, he doesn't have a doctorate from Harvard and hasn't spent years working as a financial analyst/economics lecturer, but he has a friggin MBA from Thailand's premier business school and no one thought this was important to mention? I think if you were to compare him to Finance Ministers in many other parliamentary democracies** his educational qualifications would stack up quite well. I think some blame lies with PPP for not mentioning his educational qualifications more. I would also mention his family business, but I can find little about his rule in it.

btw, Thanong of The Nation went against the trend:

Surapong is not someone lacking in financial experience. He is quite bright and smart.

COMMENT: Kudos to Thanong.

btw, Sudarat is from the Class of 87, one year ahead of Surapong, so I guess they know each other from Sasin.

*Don't you just love how Surapong is talking a Vejjajiva too!

** I should clarify that yes in many parliamentary democracies governments are limited to choosing ministers exclusively from the legislature, but this is not the case in Thailand where outside persons can be appointed. Nevertheless, painting someone as an economic novice when they have an MBA from a good school - Sasin is no Turakit Bundit/Hor Gahn Kah - is misleading (resisting the temptation to make further jokes about these two educational institutions).

Last week, the head of the DSI, this week , Dr Siriwat Thiptaradon, secretary general of Food and Drug Administration and Director General of Public Relations Department Pramote Rattawanit. However, it is the latest transfer which I think is newsworthy:

Prime Minister Samak Sundaravej may have ordered the transfer of national police chief General Seripisut Temiyavej to be seconded at the Prime Minister's Office pending further instruction and named Seripisut's deputy General Patcharawat Wongsuwan as the acting police chief, Government House officials said on Friday.

Samak said that he would comment on the matter at an appropriate time. He has neither denied nor confirmed the issue. He spoke right before departing for his official visit to Laos.

The speculation about the abrupt transfer happened a day following the return of former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra who is reportedly pushing for the promotion of his brotherinlaw Lt General Preowpan Damapong.

Seripisut was promoted to his job following the ousting of Thaksin. Preowpan has been seconded from the police service to the Prime Minister's Office since the September 19 coup. He called on Thaksin on Thursday's evening before the transfer of Seripisut was released to the public.

Patcharawat is expected to work in the caretaker capacity as he would reach his retirement next September. Seripisut will also retire this year.

COMMENT: Thai Rath have a quote by Patcharawat thanking Samak and the article states that Patcharawat has seen the order transferring Seripisut so I think we can take it as official now.

Based on what I read previously I am somewhat surprised they got rid of Seripisuth now and did not wait for his retirement in September giving Patcharawat one year in the job too. Will PPP support him if he runs for Governor of Bangkok? This transfer doesn't suggest so, but I guess we will have to see what he says and whether he reacts to his transfer in a negative way. Thaksin's arrival has cleverly overwhelmed news of the transfers, but Seripisuth has sufficient personal popularity to push back if he wants to. The question is, will he?

btw, if Samak is ordering Thaksin's brother-in-law to be the new Police Commissioner, does this suggest Samak is being "independent" and there is some conflict? Will the new media narrative be that Samak is and always has been a Thaksin crony all along?

2Bangkok has a good selection of photos. Jotman live-blogged Thaksin's return and has photos too.

Red & White/Real Life Thailand:

Incidentally, do not be fooled by Surapong's request to Thaksin to be a "economical advisor". This is a ploy so that Thaksin can make a very public refusal and this will be held up as proof that he truly does not want to return to politics.

COMMENT: R&W could be right, but my understanding it was not a formal position and if he is only providing informal economic advice on an infrequent basis, Thaksin might say yes. He might not accept a position as an advisor so there might be rejection of a "position", but he will give some advice as long as it can be framed in the correct way (i.e Thaksin cares about the poor).

New Mandala has a post and as always there are a good range of views in the comments.

More to come.

The Nation reports:

Most people believe his return is not likely to trigger a political confrontation at this juncture because Thaksin is in no hurry to reclaim power.

Thaksin insists he has quit politics for good, but many believe it is only a matter of time before he attempts to make a political comeback.

Thaksin still faces two legal hurdles. First, there are still several corruption cases pending against him. These cases will take time to resolve. His assets worth between Bt50 billion and Bt60 billion are frozen, pending the investigation into the allegations of corruption against him.

Second, Thaksin along with 110 former executives of Thai Rak Thai Party have been barred from politics for five year by the Constitution Court.

But, according to a political source, Thaksin has taken a gamble by returning to Thailand to deal with the immediate problems revolving around the economy and Samak Sundaravej, the prime minister.

"The economy is about to face serious problems if it is not tackled well enough. The popularity of the government remains good. Thaksin is afraid that if the economy is not handled appropriately, the government would become unpopular and it would be difficult to reverse the situation," said the political source.

Thaksin also would like to tackle Samak head-on because it looks like the incumbent premier wants to put his own stamp on leading the country without having to listen to the People Power Party.

"Samak will find it difficult to move around now that Thaksin has come back. He hasn't yet had the time to build up his power. Thaksin just can't afford to let Samak consolidate his power," said Dr Montri Chenvidkarn, a political scientist.

Frederic Neumann, a regional economist of HSBC based in Hong Kong, agreed Samak may develop political ambitions of his own, having recently fulfilled a long-held desired to attain the top post.

"The feisty former governor of Bangkok, although hand-picked by Thaksin as leader of his political movement (presumably with the understanding of his eventual resignation in favour of his political patron) is likely to exhibit an increasingly independent streak, possibly clashing with the former premier's plans for a swift return to politics," he said.

For Thaksin to return to power, the laws will have to be changed. Neumann expects the current government to move towards an amnesty for the 111 executives of Thai Rak Thai in due course.

"The pending corruption cases may prove more difficult to dispose of, but, eventually, we expect these cases to be laid to rest as well. This opens the door for new elections to be held next year, which may see the return of Thaksin to the premiership, along with a comfortable parliamentary majority," he said.

"But, for the time being, Thailand should enjoy a period of relative political calm as various legal complications help restrain political ambitions."

COMMENT Samak is not the mastermind behind the economics ideas, he is not dominating the national stage anywhere near as much as Thaksin was. If the economy turns around, it will be Mingkwan and Dr. Surapong who will get most of the credit. Samak isn't the architect or even seen to be the architect behind the policies. Yes, he will also benefit, but he is not like Thaksin in TRT was.

There seems this view that because Thaksin was a powerful PM, future PMs will be too. Samak has to listen to PPP, he can't make laws or even control cabinet. PPP didn't win the election because of Samak and without PPP Samak is nothing. At the moment, how can the PAD possibly protest when the "independent" Samak is PM? This is reinforce by rumours that HM the King has told Samak to be "independent". Do people think Samak was going to be some Surayud caretaker figure who dithered around and did nothing? We know how popular that was. Now, if Samak was to act against the interests of Thaksin - I mean actually against the interests - then I could understand the whole "Thaksin-Samak conflict", but I have seen little evidence of it yet. Samak might take some positions which appear to be against Thaksin's interests, but it is big issues to do with the cases against him that Thaksin cares about. If in 6 months time after the media talking of a Thaksin-Samak conflict and Samak being independent that Samak takes a position which is so advantageous to Thaksin, the media are stuck and will have difficulty labeling Samak as simply a nominee all over again.

At the moment, I am sticking to my view that Thaksin will not seek any formal and official political role during his 5 year ban. It is only just over 4 years to go now. If he waits out the full 5 years, he can say he has "done his time" and reconsider his position, but to re-enter politics next year would be suicidal. Then again, he sold Shin Corp in the way he did, but it makes no sense to do so now.

btw, if Samak was so independent-minded and wanted to steal the limelight, why was he so quiet yesterday? Sulking or not letting Thaksin bask in the limelight? I go for the later. If anything Thaksin has to come back early to repair the damage that Samak has done, not to stop Samak from being "independent".

Dan Ten Kate in Asia Sentinel on Thakin's return:

The big question is whether he means that, and what effect he will have on Thai politics, which he dominated so effectively from 2001 until he was defenestrated. He told reporters that his only ambition was to clear his name and live peacefully, but the country is still wondering whether his exile was a sabbatical or a permanent separation to watch the Manchester Football Club team that he bought while on enforced holiday.*

COMMENT: New Mandala have a good quote on the issue of Thaksin staying out of politics:

Several times over the past 15 months Thaksin has vowed that he has no future in politics. It is hard to take his undertakings seriously. As my colleague at the ANU, Peter Jackson, wrote a few years ago, Thai public life operates according to a “regime of images” whereby there is no necessary correspondence between public stances and private manoeuvres. What counts in public is that the right thing is said at the right time. As usual, Thaksin is working the public imagery cleverly. He can afford to bide his time and present himself as a loyal servant returning to his beloved homeland. Of course, when the time comes for Thaksin to take on a more formal political role there will be those that protest about his dishonesty given his previous promises of retirement. But their charges will have little traction in the court of public opinion. That’s how the “regime of images” works.

COMMENT: Thaksin could always do a Clinton, but I don't think he will take a formal political role. He might act as an informal economic adviser to Dr. Surapong, the Finance Minister, but not be officially appointed to any position. He doesn't need to have any position to have any power and in fact taking a position now might be seen as "selfish" as it would require a pardon and it would be seen as being divisive. If PAD starts protesting because Thaksin is acting as informal economics adviser, PAD will look petty particularly as it comes at a time of economic concern and people remember the "good times" under Thaksin.

Thaksin waved emotionally to the crowds before heading to court, where he was quickly released on bail in a pre-arranged deal.

"I want to prove myself and reclaim my reputation, which was destroyed in an unjustified and unfair manner," Thaksin told at a press briefing at the lavish Peninsula Hotel "All of us are Thai, and we have interacted or known each other one way or another," he added in an English-language statement. "It will be best for all of us to reduce our egos and our prejudice. All of us should compromise and unite for our country and our beloved king."

Thaksin's return comes two months after his allies in the People Power Party won the first election since the putsch in a severe blow to the generals and, given the electoral success, raises questions about just how permanent his retirement will be. In the first few months new Prime Minister Samak Sudaravej has already sought to restore the populist policies of the deposed Thai Rak Thai government, and now Thaksin will look to clear his name and recoup a large chunk of his fortune that was frozen last year.

As he looks to sort out the flimsy cases the junta brought against him, his human rights record as prime minister does not appear to be under scrutiny. The military leaders chose not to investigate the “War on Drugs” in which at least 2,000 people were executed by police; or the bungled handling of the Muslim separatist movement in Southern Thailand, particularly the incidents at Krue Se Mosque and Tak Bai in which hundreds died at state hands; or the disappearance of Muslim human rights lawyer Somchai Neelapaijit, even though Thaksin claimed he knew who was involved.

It's hard to find an analyst who doesn't think Thaksin's tenure as prime minister was rife with conflict of interest. The 1997 constitution mandated strict rules for concealing assets, and Thaksin was essentially caught red-handed even before he won his first election in 2001.
...
The coup was supposed to remedy this, but the generals' aim was way off. Instead of fixing the justice system, which is at the root of the country's political instability, the generals mangled it even more in an attempt to bury Thaksin. In the past two years, they have rewritten the constitution to take away power from elected representatives and set up a military court that dissolved Thaksin's political party and enforced an ex post facto law to ban him and 110 other leaders for politics from five years.

King Bhumibol Adulyadej's speech to judges in April 2006 had the effect of institutionalizing the role of judges as political power brokers instead of guardians of the law. The transcript of this leakedaudiotape from a phone conversation with key judges concerning the decision to void the April 2006 election reveals how political expediency often trumps the rule of law in major court cases.

Legal experts expect nothing less in the cases against Thaksin, as well as a potential case that might see the PPP dissolved. They are merely bargaining chips in a grand political game that has little to do with justice.

"These cases give the powers behind the court some negotiating power over Thaksin," said Kanin Boonsuwan, a lecturer at Chulalongkorn University's law school. "It's a political issue now, not a legal one."

When the generals took over that rainy night in September 2006, things looked grim for Thaksin. The coupsters unveiled a laundry list of corruption allegations to justify the coup, and created an Assets Examination Committee (AEC) with sweeping powers to find the evidence.

Shady deals popped up left and right. The procurement of CTX airport bomb scanners, a rubber sapling project, two and three-digit lotteries,misuse of tsunami aid donations, an e-passport project, the Ua-arthorn low housing project and others were all said to involve corruption.

But while many people routinely claim Thaksin's government was one of the most corrupt ever, either the junta was too timid to press charges in most cases or they couldn't find any smoking guns. Indeed, the charges facing Thaksin look more like tools to ensure he would be arrested upon entering the country and to freeze the nearly US$2 billion windfall he earned when his family sold Shin Corp to Singapore's Temasek Holdings in January 2006, the deal that initially sparked the conflict.

To put things in perspective, Pakistan's Benazir Bhutto, who was recently assassinated and hailed as a democracy hero, faced much more solid corruption allegations. France, Poland, Spain and Switzerland all produced documents linking her to corrupt deals, and a Swiss court convicted her and her husband of money laundering in 2003.

COMMENT: I am not so sure if I was Thaksin I would want the Bhutto comparisions now given she was recently murdered on her return to the country with great fanfare by her PPP. I blogged on the Bhutto analogy last month.

By comparison, the charges against Thaksin are minor. He faces one charge of using his influence to help his wife Potjaman Shinawatra buy a prime piece of Bangkok real estate at a reduced price, and another of concealing assets in listed real estate company SC Asset,which is owned by his family.

Of the two cases against Thaksin, the SC Asset case looks the most damaging. In 2000, Thaksin said he sold shares in several property companies,including SC Asset, to Win Mark, a firm incorporated in the British Virgin Islands. Thaksin then denied owning Win Mark, but investigators say they have found a document that shows Thaksin actually controlled the company. This appears to be the closest thing to a smoking gun that has been found. If it proves true, Thaksin could be hit with a large fine and a jail sentence.

Although an arrest warrant was issued in the case, the attorney general still hasn't indicted Thaksin. A decision is due on April 3.

Moreover, the Department of Special Investigations (DSI), does not have a solid track record investigating securities fraud cases. Two years ago, a company called Picnic was caught in an accounting fraud that ended up costing shareholders millions of dollars, but prosecutors failed to secure a conviction. In Thaksin's case, it's unclear if anyone lost money, and shareholders already knew that Thaksin's relatives controlled about 60 percent of the company (with Thaksin's concealed stake, that would've been closer to 80 percent).

"This is not so serious as it did not cause any damage to the public,"said an aide to Thaksin. "He may have made a misleading statement, but it didn't damage anyone."

COMMENT: The comparison with the Picnic case is interesting, but proving the case against Thaksin might be difficult. He might get a big fine given the low-level of wrongdoing - no investors lost money.

In the land case, the evidence against Thaksin is thinner. Back in July 2003, the Financial Institutions Development Fund, a central bank body created to rehabilitate the 26 financial institutions that went bust in the 1997 economic crisis, put up for sale a 30-rai plot on Ratchadaphisek Road. Previously, the FIDF had accepted closed bids for the land plot, but had received low prices. The July bid was designed to be open, a move that the central bank expected to bring more transparency to the process and higher prices.

During the first round of bidding in July, three listed companies refused to bid because the minimum price of 870 million baht was deemed too high.The land was again put up for bid in November. Pojaman Shinawatra won with a bid of 772 million baht, higher than 730 million bid from Land & Houses and 750 million bid from Noble Development, both companies listed on the Thai stock exchange.

Army investigators claim this price was below market prices, even though many central bank officials have defended the deal. Pridiyathorn Devakula, the former central bank governor who the coup-makers appointed as finance minister after the putsch, said the deal "was as transparent as crystal." Moreover, prosecutors have not brought malfeasance charges against central bank officials for selling land at a discounted price.

Pojaman's bid amounted to 58,000 baht per square wah, or 11.5 percent over the central bank's valuation. Investigators claim that the price would've jumped if the land was sold in 2004 instead of late 2003. However, in 2004 state-run broadcaster MCOT bought a 50-rai plot of land close to the Pojaman's plot of land for 55,000 baht per square wah, suggesting that Thaksin's wife did pay the market price. MCOT's land deal did not spark an outrage.

Thaksin is connected to all this through a clause in a corruption law that bans state officials or their spouses from entering into contractual agreements with the state. But legal experts say this clause was meant for people with direct control over a contract and does not connect the prime minister in this case.


"This law does not concern the prime minister," said Kanin from Chulalongkorn, who helped write the law. "Before the coup this case was never an issue, and everybody knew it wouldn't hold up in court. There were better cases if they wanted to go after Thaksin."

COMMENT: I have blogged here and here on the land deal. It is such a joke and is if they are deliberately choosing weak cases to run against Thaksin because they will collapse.

It's unclear if that will happen. The attorney general has started to reject cases from the AEC, so it's unclear how many more charges against Thaksin will see the light of day.

The AEC,which received extensive powers when the junta set it up, has vowed to bypass prosecutors and take the cases to court directly if the Attorney General refuses to cooperate. Still, that might prompt the PPP-dominated parliament to pass a law that dissolves the AEC. In bypassing the attorney general, PPP could claim the AEC is abusing its power in an effort to go after Thaksin.

"The only way to stop us is to enact a new law," said Kaewsan Athibodhi, secretary-general of the AEC. "They have the legal power to do that but I think it's impossible politically as it could lead to mass protests."

The AEC plans to bring four more cases related to the Shin sale to the attorney general next week. Kaewsan said he's confident he will get a conviction.

He also thought that Thaksin wouldn't be able to strike a compromise with the country's power brokers as exiled leaders have done in the past.

"I think the present situation is different because in the past they never had cases like this," Kaewsan said. "This is a process that can't be stopped."

Yet not everyone agrees.

"The cases against Thaksin presented so far are really an act of desperation," said Giles Ungpakorn, a political scientist at Chulalongkorn University. "What really angered most people is the fact Thaksin sold Shin Corp and he didn't pay any tax. But of course that was actually legal. The coup leaders are not really getting to the heart of the matter."

COMMENT: As usual, Giles sums up the situation. It was the Shin Corp deal which brought Thaksin down, but there is no corruption case there. As I understand the AEC's term ends in June so they will run out of money then. The parliament could pass a law requiring AEC to go through the attorney-general. At the moment, AEC has special powers and this would bring them into line with other investigatory agencies. From what I have read, the attorney general has not declined all cases, just the more frivolous ones like the lottery case against the entire Cabinet.

*The lead story on the BBC sport website is a story Sven's comments about Thaksin. Thaksin brought along two Manchester City players (I understand on the plane) with him:

He has been joined in Thailand by Tyrrell and two City players, goalkeeper Kasper Schmeichel and midfielder Kelvin Etuhu, who will be coaching local children and training with the Thai national side.

Schmeichel told BBC Radio 5 Live: "We are out here supporting our chairman.

"We will have to wait and see what happens but football-wise, and as far as City are concerned, he is a very good chairman, very generous and passionate. He wants the club to progress.

"Will he be distracted by all this? I don't think so.

"He is a very genuine guy with very genuine feelings for the club. City lie very close to his heart and the way he has supported the club since he came in has proved that."

COMMENT: He has utterly mastered the public relations game.

btw, my bet is around a 500 million baht fine for Thaksin. He will probably lose another couple billion baht - up to 5 billion baht - in donations to "selected elite charities".

Thaksin has been quite emotional in his rhetoric from getting on his knees and waiing the ground, but also in his press conference:

An apology and then a stark promise came from Thaksin Shinawatra at his long press conference at the end of a long and emotional day: "I will definitely not get involved in politics."

He held the meeting with the media at The Peninsula hotel where he also plans to spend the night.

Joined at the podium by his wife Khunying Potjaman and his three children, Mr Thaksin began by offering his apologies for the troubles that his supporters had to go through following his ouster by a military coup on Sept 19, 2006.

He then thanked those who provided continued support even though his reputation had been left in tatters by those who despised him.

The reason for his return home, he said, was to prove his innocence in corruption cases levelled against him.

"I have to return to prove my innocence and restore my reputation, which has been unfairly tarnished," he said.

Once he clears his name, he then only wants to live life like a normal Thai citizen.

"I will not return to the political stage," he said. "I am 59 this year, so I just want to enjoy the last stages of my life with my family, in my country. I will die on Thai soil.

"I am Thai. There is nowhere in the world where I and my family can stay as happily as in Thailand."

He said he will focus his energy on doing more social work, and become more involved with the process of developing the country's sports and education.

To close, he thanked supporters who turned up at Suvarnabhumi airport to greet him this morning.

"I'd normally greet everyone who showed up to welcome me, but I wasn’t able to do that this morning as the security teams were a bit uneasy about me doing that, so my apologies," he said.

The Nation reports:

"I and my family have suffered from injustice but this can not be compared to the hardship befallen the people who are the worst victims of political rivalry," he said.

COMMENT: More later.

btw, Videos of his arrival are available here.

UPDATE: The Nation is live-blogging events for today and reports that Eagle 1 has landed. With 2,000 taxi motorcyclists alone, it seems like there is a very large crowd at the airport.

COMMENT: Since Thaksin used Thai Airways for this flight, does this mean he no longer thinks their service "sucks"?

Thaksin's flight has departed Hong Kong and is scheduled to arrive at 9:50am (Bangkok time). Real-time tracking, if you must, is available from here. I'll have some information in this post or in the sidebar as my schedule allows.

Thaksin returns home to the following poll:

Some 64.7 per cent of young people interviewed by the polling arm of by Assumption University said they believe Mr Thaksin did more good than bad things while premier. And 66.5 per cent of adult respondents thought the same.

About 55 per cent of the respondents said they strongly admire the ex-prime minister.

The survey assessed opinions of 3,553 people aged 12 or above in 27 of the 76 provinces. The survey was conducted during the week ending Tuesday.

Some 45.8 per cent of the respondents said they miss Mr Thaksin a lot while 41.6 per cent said they do not miss him. Another 12.6 per cent miss him a bit.

About 34 per cent of the youths and 39.5 per cent of the adults want Mr Thaksin to return home as soon as possible, believing that he could help improve the economy. They even want Mr Thaksin to be prime minister again.

COMMENT: And this is why PPP won the election and why some people are gathering at the airport. What odds would one get on a certain white-haired old man being there? 100-1?

The Nation reports:

It should surprise no one that two weeks after the new government was established, the Foreign Ministry was at the forefront defending former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra by reinstating his diplomatic (red) passport. This was the first omen to show that from now on the ministry will have great difficulty in considering issues and policies for the country independently. Obviously, top ministry bureaucrats know which way the wind blows. They took their cue from Foreign Minister Noppadon Pattama quite literally. In this case it is his prerogative to restore such privileges to the former prime minister. Bureaucrats just follow orders.

Thaksin's former lawyer has already accomplished one of the most important tasks assigned to him by getting Thaksin's red passport restored. For Thaksin, this travel document is his most important possession while living in exile. It is not his wealth or his huge house in London that defines him - it is his red passport. It ultimately shows that the bearer is a former Thai leader and, in this case, a prime minister. It was painful for him and humiliating for his family to have to travel with a normal passport for the past year.

Undoubtedly, the Foreign Ministry's credibility is at stake. By reinstating Thaksin's red passport, the ministry has shown that it is willing to give in to political pressure and that sets a precedent for the future.

Any former leader will automatically be given this passport whether or not he or she is under court sanctions. Interestingly, the issuance also negates what the ministry pursued following the coup without shame.

Indeed, one should not make too big a fuss over the passport because after all a man with such a big ego would need such a passport. What is more important, however, is the future of Thailand's foreign policy, which is likely to be under Thaksin's direction. There are no indications to believe otherwise. Nobody in the ministry has dared to come out and say anything. The ministry, which had prided itself on being the country's most elite and independent, is no longer the respectable organisation it used to be. Looking forward, this does not augur well with the challenges that lie ahead.

COMMENT: First, Thaksin is not under court sanctions. He will present himself to the Court to seek bail. Now, if the court refused to allow him to travel aboard and issued an order for the Foreign Ministry not to issue him a passport and then did so, this would be a completely different issue. Thaksin's diplomatic passport was taken away as he was annoying the CNS/Surayud government by flying around the region. When the previous government revoked Thaksin's diplomatic passport, weren't the Foreign Ministry caving into political pressure? Yes, it was an executive decision, not one from the judiciary. Of course, The Nation can't even see this as they are so blinded by their hatred of Thaksin.

Second, the Foreign Ministry should not act independently on policy issues. If it is a legal issue and Thaksin is not legally allowed to have a diplomatic passport then one should not be issued to him. The Nation doesn't make this argument as they know it is a policy/up to the discretion of the Minister. If it is a policy issue and within the prerogative of the Minister bureaucrats need to listen to the Minister. Now, they can caution and advise the Minister on pros and cons of a decision, but bureaucrats can't just arbitrarily decide for themselves what is "right" and what they will do. What if there is disagreement among bureaucrats, which policy should they follow?

And talk of speaking out is just idiotic. If you don't like government policy and don't want to implement it then quit and start your own business. Foreign Ministry bureaucrats are part of the executive and thus accountable to the Minister who is in turn accountable to parliament. The Nation is just encouraging the worse aspect of the Thai government bureacuracy and that is where officials act on their own whim.

btw, I encourage all The Nation staff the next time they asked to do something to act independently to keep their "credibility" and tell Tulsie, Yoon, Thanong et. al that they will report on stories they want to report on. How will The Nation respond to such independence?

Yoon in his op-ed today:

You can't say he hasn't tried desperately hard to convince the public that he is really his own man. But, as the Chinese are fond of saying, loud thunder doesn't necessarily bring a heavy downpour. In fact, any keen observer of the weather (and politics) would inevitably conclude from genuine experience that the louder the thunder, the less chance of heavy rain.

But if you ask me, I am sure all this speculation about an escalating Samak-Thaksin falling out is simply wishful thinking on the part of the conspiracy theorists. But then, you may ask me why Samak pleaded with all the pro-Thaksin groups not to appear in full force at Suvarnbhumi Airport this morning to give the ex-PM a spectacular welcome home. Isn't that a sign of a rift between the two?

Not really. Samak says people may get "mun sai" if the show put up for Thaksin's homecoming is overdone. "Mun sai" is an ambiguous but hugely forceful sentiment. It's neither anger nor opposition. It's somewhere in between. Was the PM reading the public's mind?

COMMENT: As I have said repeatedly, Samak needs to create some distance between himself and Thaksin to be his "own man", but Samak is too old to be a long-term threat. Samak can't repudiate Thaksin though as PPP would revolt. Don't mistake Samak's stupid outbursts for him being a weak political operator. You don't survive 40 years in politics, like Banharn, by not being politically smart.

Every time, I hear about shifting power to the judiciary I personally cringe as I think the judiciary is the most unaccountable branch and putting too much power in the hands of the judiciary is not something I am comfortable with. The Nation reports on some statements by the Court clerk:*

The Supreme Court on Wednesday warned supporters of former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra about being held in contempt for inappropriate activities during the tomorrow's bail review.

Right after his arrival at Suvarnabhumi Airport, Thaksin is expected to apply for a temporary release at the Supreme Court. He is facing graft charges relating to the Ratchadapisek land scandal.

"Any loud cheers and the presentation of flowers to show moral support are deemed inappropriate because these activities would disturb the peace around the court building," court clerk Rakkiart Watanapong said.

COMMENT: I can fathom not wanting loud noise to the extent that it prevents the court from conducting its business - although this would have to be extremely loud as opposed to some loud cheers - but the presentation of flowers is inappropriate? This is not in the Court itself, but outside the Court building. The judiciary in Thailand are very trigger-happy about contempt of court charges and it concerns me what is labeled "inappropriate" by the Court clerk will result in such charges. If the clerk is not referring to contempt or court charges, the clerk should not pass judgment on what behavior outside the court building is appropriate or not.

*I view Court staff commenting on contempt of court charges to be part of the judiciary.

I have been reading all kinds of rumours that Thaksin won't return or has delayed his return. A source has just confirmed that Thaksin will definitely return on the 9:40am TG flight from Hong Kong. He will get the VIP lounge treatment on arrival.

UPDATE: With 2008 figure.

UPDATE: Jotman has an interesting comparison between the British and the Thai Royals.

Below is the money received for the Bureau of the Royal Household from the Budget Bureau. The figures were available from here, but the link is now dead. They can also be found here.



Source: 1997-2006; 2002; 2007 (large pdf)

NOTE: Spreadsheet available here.

In its last days in being able to pass bills on its own the NLA went into overdrive and passed dozens of bills (see here and here). Unfortunately, they seem to have forget about a legal provision as The Nation reports:

PM's Office Minister Choosak Sirinin said yesterday the Cabinet was informed about the tribunal's recent ruling that the legislation proceedings of the three bills on independent agencies did not comply with Article 141 of the Constitution. They are the National Counter Corruption Bill, the Parliament Ombudsman Bill, and the Auditor- General Bill.

Prime Minister Samak Sunda-ravej called on everyone to attend the House meetings to prevent the government-sponsored bills from being rejected.

Choosak said the government has its own drafts on the three bills and may propose its drafts for House approval.

The court was required to check if the three bills passed by the National Legislative Assembly (NLA) were legislated in accordance with the law before seeking Royal endorsement.

NLA speaker Meechai Ruchu-phan expressed deep regret that the three bills were rejected saying the NLA devoted much of their time to prevent corruption by drafting what they believe was effective legislation.

Meechai pointed out that the lack of a quorum was a technical computer error. He said the court looked at the computer record, which was not accurate because the computer recorded the number of members who had scanned their cards. Some NLA members were in the meeting but did not scan their cards.

"NLA speaker and deputies had not scanned the cards throughout the year though they attended. Only NLA members, who wanted to vote, scanned their cards. But this is a lesson for all. There's nothing we can do since the judges have already passed the ruling,'' he said.

Meechai said the court decision would not affect the corruption investigation against former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra because the current graft law is effective enough.

There were 22 bills passed by the NLA on December 21 that may be turned down because it did not have a quorum of 120 needed from 240 in total. They include the Broadcasting Bill and the Alcohol Control Bill.

The NLA also passed 32 bills in three readings on December 20 without needing a quorum. Among them were the Defence Administrative Organisation Bill and the Internal Security Bill.

COMMENT: What about TPBS? A comedy of errors really.

The Bangkok Post reports:

The Election Commission voted 3-to-2 on Tuesday to hand a red card to House Speaker Yongyuth Tiyapairat for electoral fraud, sending his case to the Supreme Court
...
Mr Yongyuth, a list-MP for Zone 1 covering his native Chiang Rai and other provinces in the upper North, was found to have bribed local tambon and village officials in Chiang Rai to campaign for votes for the People Power party in the general election. He was a deputy leader of the PPP at the time.
...
EC spokesman Raungroj Jomsueb said the commission split but ruled 3-to-2 that Mr Yongyuth was guilty of vote-buying in Chiang Rai province before the Dec 23 elections. Details of the charge were known for weeks, but the EC took extra time to try to hear all possible witnesses.

COMMENT: On the case, EC Chairman Apichat is quoted in Matichon as saying the VCD was not important in their consideration.

What now? The Bangkok Post reports more:

At any step, however, the process can be halted by the Supreme Court in Mr Yongyuth's case, or by the Constitutional Court in the case of the PPP.

The EC no longer has power to actually do any of this. It can only recommend a course of action to the Supreme Court.

Minister to the Prime Minister’s Office, Choosak Sirinil, also the PPP’s legal consultant, said there is still hope for Mr Yongyuth as the ECs 3-2 vote in favour of red-carding him was not a unanimous decision.

“There is still a chance for Mr Yongyuth to defend himself. It’s all up to the Supreme Court. The PPP will also set up its own legal team to help Mr Yongyuth fight the case,” he said.

COMMENT: Matichon states it was a 3:1:1 decision and quotes Sosdri as saying she abstained, Somchai giving him a "white card" (for innocence - don't you love the symbolism?) and the other 3 commissioners giving him a red card. It is a bit of a turn around. Sodsri is quoted as saying that in handing out punishment it is necessary to give an opportunity to the accused party to fight. In response to allegations by Yongyuth after a senior military officer lobbying the EC, Sodsri said that for her she was not lobbied, but she couldn't speak for others. Matichon quotes a source as saying the reason for thinking it was a 3-2 verdict and that Sodsri dismissed the complaint were incorrect as the understanding that the EC would first consider whether there was sufficient evidence to make a decision and then consider whether the person was guilty or not. I think this refers to what Sodsri is saying above that she doesn't think there was sufficient evidence to evaluate, but as the internal procedures did not consider this she voted to abstain. TV reports state that she viewed that there was still at least one witness to interview and this played a part in her position.

Sumet is quoted as saying that he didn't take the VCD into account, but just the witness statements and that both Yongyuth and the 10 kamnan confirmed they did meet each other. When asked who were the two who didn't vote for the red card and whether it was Somchai and Sodsri he states actually I don't want to answer, but this is correct "so why do you ask?"

Yonguth's response as reported by Thai Rath is to say that the security officials together with Special Branch police at the time created false evidence against him. Further information about what he said is here.

btw, the EC issued a yellow card to Yongyuth's sister.

Yonyuth has already said he is suspending his position as Speaker.

The possible outcomes as per the Post:

In the worst-case scenario for Mr Yongyuth and the government:

    * Mr Yongyuth will be stripped of his seat in parliament and speaker's position.

    * He could then be barred from politics for five years.

    * If the PPP is found to have been involved or complicit in his offence, the party could be dissolved.

The next step: The EC forwards its findings to the Supreme Court within 15 days. If the Supreme Court so much as agrees to hear the case, Mr Yongyuth will have to stop working in parliament - he is not allowed to wait for the verdict.

If the Supreme Court upholds the split EC decision that Mr Yongyuth is guilty, the speaker will have to resign completely from parliament. The case then would go to the Constitutional Court, which would rule on whether to disband the entire PPP.

If that happened, the country would be in uncharted constitutional waters.

The current supreme law allows formation of new political parties, and also allows elected MPs to switch parties, a course that PPP members might take if their party is dissolved. But nothing would be certain, and that is why investors were spooked on Tuesday by the Yongyuth case.

COMMENT: There is certainly a chance that PPP could be dissolved again as TRT was. It is unsure whether this will lead to dissolution of the House and what will happen. Honestly, the whole thing is a complete and utter mess.

btw, Matichon states that the decision in relation to Yongyuth does not affect PPP's party vote in Zone 1 and the next person on the list will just replace him.

Matichon reports that a former TRT high-ranking executive close to Thaksin states that Thaksin will return on February 28 and arrive at Suvaranbumi. He will then go to the Supreme Court and apply for bail. Full details will be announced on TrueThaksin tomorrow morning. 28 February is apparently an auspicious number date so that is the reason it was chosen.

UPDATE: From the Hi-Thaksin website (via Jess) comes this crafted public relations image:



COMMENT: There is a call for those who love and miss Thaksin to turn up at the airport to greet him when he arrives at the auspicious time of 9 a.m.* I trust Hobby, the Corporal et. al will be out in force to greet Thaksin on his return.

*If the flight is delayed, does this mean the 9 a.m. arrival is not longer auspicious? Well, I guess it could arrive at 9:09am and that might be even more auspicious (9 is seen as an auspicious number in Thai).

The Bangkok Post reports:

The group that staged huge street demonstrations before the military stepped in and overthrew Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra resurrected itself on Monday and threatened to start the protests again.

The People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD) suddenly on Monday morning turned against the return to Thailand by Mr Thaksin for any reason.

Leaders of the group, including newspaper tycoon Sondhi Limthongkul and Buddhist sect activist Maj-Gen Chamlong Srimuang, said at a special meeting to the current government was acting in the interests of "the Thaksin regime," and PAD instead to step up protests.

In a seven-point statement, PAD resolved "to oppose the return of Thaksin" and threatened to return to the street protests if, as likely, the ex-premier comes back to Thailand.

"The PAD has never opposed the return of Mr Thaksin if the former premier comes back to fight corruption charges in court, without interference from the current government," said the statement.

"But since the Thaksin regime has interfered in the justice system, the PAD now must oppose Mr Thaksin’s return."

The statement called on "the people, civil servants, the military, police who love the country" to be ready to restart street protests which drew up to half a million people during the summer of 2006. [BP: Half a million????]

Mr Sondhi, the founder of the anti-Thaksin movement in September, 2005, said the new "Thaksin regime" was "the ugliest government in history."

The publisher of Manager Group said he and supporters did not wish to act against Mr Thaksin if he wished to return to Thailand to prove his innocence in court. "But the PAD will never allow the government to interfere in the justice system," he vowed.

Maj Gen Chamlong said the PAD had to emerge again "because the country now faces a big problem."

Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister Surapong Suebwonglee said he hoped there would be no problem or unrest when Mr Thaksin returns. All parties, including PAD, should recognise the ex-premier is a Thai citizen, with the right of return.

In addition, it is good if he returns to fight criminal charges in court, said Dr Surapong. No matter what PAD thinks about the government, he said, "No one can interfere with the court and justice procedure."

PAD's seven-point statement also called on the Election Commission "to have the courage" to recommend that the ruling People Power party be dissolved for acting as a proxy for the disbanded Thai Rak Thai of Mr Thaksin.

It renewed touchy and controversial calls that Prime Minister Samak Sundaravej swear allegiance to nation, religion and King, and "stop acting as a puppet of Mr Thaksin" - words almost custom-designed to raise an equally acerbic response from Mr Samak.

It also called on the government to stop interfering with the media, to review its decision to remove the chief of the Department of Special Investigations, and to stop alleged interference in the work of the Assets Scrutiny Committee (ASC), the Supreme Court, the National Counter Corruption Commission, the Department of Special Investigation and the National Police Bureau.

COMMENT: Thai Rath have some of the PAD statements here. Matichon here. Let me explain to the PAD, the executive is not part of the judicial system. Cases against Thaksin can still be brought the AEC/ASC and the NCCC. The PAD won't be satisfied unless all branches of government are dominated by anti-Thaksinities.

So unless the EC recommend the dissolution of PPP and the courts follows out with this, will the PAD determine this to be interference? What interference has there been so far?

Chalerm has the government response:

Interior Minister Chalerm Yoobamrung on Monday said he saw no justification for the People's Alliance for Democracy to stage a protest about former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra returning to his homeland.

"The PAD used to say it would allow the government a chance to prove its performance but today no work has started yet, hence I deem it unnecessary for a rally as Thaksin would come back as a Thai citizen," he said.

Chalerm said the PAD should reflect on its stand rather than rush to attack Thaksin without justification.

"The PAD onced allged Thaksin about being an unroyalist but refrained to showing its accountability after the Office of the Attorney General had dropped the charges," he said.

He said he would not intervene with pro and antiThaksin rallies, if held, although he would ensure there would be no confrontation between the rival groups.

He said the definite date about Thaksin's return should be finalised by tomorrow.

Some other PPP MP promise to mobilise large numbers:

The People Power Party is ready to moblilise its 10 million supporters to counter the antiThaksin protests, MP Pracha Prasopdee said on Monday.

Pracha was reacting to the announcement by the People's Alliance for Democracy threatening to revive street protests to oppose the return of former prime minister Thaksin Shinwatra on grounds of the government's tampering with the legal proceedings to help him eluding the law.

"If the PAD becomes active, I plan to confront it by mobilising 10 million People Power supporters," Pracha said.

Although he doubted whether the PAD could attract the crowds to join its street protests, he would not allow PAD leaders to disrupt the restoration of democratic rule, he said.

COMMENT: Perhaps, PPP should tell this twit to stop talking as he is not helping their cause. Special interest groups with certain goals can achieve their aims (e.g farmers wanting the government to reduce debts etc), but mass political movements depend on popular support to sustain such movements. PAD had an issue with the Shin Corp sale which was widely unpopular and a build up over a number of things since Thaksin's election in February 2005, but still their protests were still a very minority movement. If they limits their protests to Sanam Luang, they will likely capture little public attention (just because The Manager and The Nation will have running updates/detailed coverage doesn't mean they are popular) and be ignored so the only way to get attention is to move to the streets. However, once they move to the streets and start to disrupt traffic, the patience of many Bangkokians will start to wear thin. They need an issue and well the transfer of the junta-appointed DSI chief is a very low threshold. There is no Shin Corp issue this time around either and after 2 years of uncertainty, the fact that the elected government is just now in place after so much instability after the last protests, they might even further solidify PPP's support - unless of course PPP stage their own rallies on the streets.

I wish to point out the excellent discussion in this post, particularly with Observer making some lengthy and very articulate comments.

On Saturday, I blogged:

I heard Sanan on the news yesterday saying that Samak was referring to people he saw killed and today I heard Samak say something along the lines of "I saw what I saw". This of course does not correspond with what he said on CNN and if it is what he meant (or more likely the spin he is using now), he should explain it more thoroughly and state for the record how many people he believes died and not how many people he saw. It is getting a little late and doing nothing just leaves the issue unresolved.

From his CNN interview:

DR: But dozens of people, maybe hundreds of people died.

SS: No, just only one died. There are 3,000 students in the Thammasat University.

DR: The official death toll was 46, and many people say it was much higher than that.

SS: No. For me, no deaths, one unlucky guy being beaten and being burned in Sanam Luang. Only one guy by that day.

The Nation the other day:

He said he told CNN that during the clampdown on students he was at Sanam Luang and he saw one person hit and burnt by a rubber bullet.

COMMENT: Actually, Samak didn't say that he saw only one person dying so it is interesting that even The Nation is treating the week late spin as fact - if this what Samak actually said then it is not an issue really. He could have issued a statement to clarify his second statement which is hard to understand "No. For me, no deaths, one unlucky guy being beaten". When he says "[f]or me, no deaths", does he mean he didn't see anyone being killed or he was not responsible for any deaths? Even if he was to clarify that he only meant to say "[I only saw] one unlucky guy being beaten", it is hard to overcome his denial in first answer when he sad "No, just only one died" in response to the question

btw, I found this amusing from The Nation's article:

"Every foreigner is interested in asking this question. A female reporter from Al Jazeera, who was beautiful and not even 30, asked me that question, so I asked her back 'how old are you?' and 'who told you to ask me?' " he said.

COMMENT: I wonder if Samak knows that Selina of Al Jazeera and Dan Rivers of CNN are actually married so they might have shared information. Also, thinking that a journalist told them to ask him a question is a little too paranoid for my liking.

btw again, AP reports:

Newspapers have seized on the incident to criticize Samak, academics have organized lectures to discuss the rarely mentioned subject, and Samak's remarks have been brought up repeatedly during parliamentary policy debate last week.
...
Analysts said Samak's controversial remarks, made so early, could undermine his tenure, threatening to turn even his allies against him.

"It has become a hot issue that might be a rallying point, bringing his current political allies and his opposition together," said Kanokrat Lertchoesakul, a professor at Chulalongkorn University. "It's an emotional issue for many people across today's political spectrum."

Finance Minister Surapong Suebwonglee and Chaturon Chaisaeng - allies of former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra and now supporters of Samak - are among many contemporary politicians who were leftist student leaders in 1976.

On Saturday, Chaturon said Samak "should gather accurate information before speaking" about the incident.

Charnvit Kasetsiri, a former rector of Thammasat University and a historian, said Samak's clumsy remarks could provide the opportunity to re-examine "a traumatic history that hasn't healed," and force others who took part to answer for their crimes.

After the incident, an amnesty was issued that prevented any of those responsible for the massacre from being brought to justice.

"How many people in Thailand actually know about what happened then? It's not even in the history textbooks in our school curriculum," Charnvit said.

"The ruling elite want it forgotten because it goes against mainstream conservatism that is preferred in Thailand. But it reopened the wounds of many people who were there."

COMMENT: An unintended consequence of Samak's remarks or did Samak plan it? Either way, it has resulted in a further discussion of the events of October 6, 1976, but this probably won't last for long as the "ruling elite" (not PPP) just want the matter to go away.

The Bangkok Post reports on the festivities and when Thaksin might return:

Ex-premier Thaksin Shinawatra says he will be back in Thailand soon - and will announce the exact date on Tuesday.

In a telephone call from Beijing to a crowd of supporters in Chiang Rai yesterday, Mr Thaksin said he was coming home soon.

"On Tuesday, I'll have the answer as to when I'll come back," he told about 1,000 jubilant supporters who gathered at a market in Chiang Rai to celebrate "Thaksin Nostalgic Day" yesterday.

More than 200 banquet tables were set up with banners stretching across the venue hailing the ousted prime minister's homecoming plan.

The event was organised by supporters of Mr Thaksin's, who call themselves the Thaksin Loyalists Club and are led by the owner of a beef noodle eatery.

The group grabbed headlines when they staged a protest against the now-defunct Council for National Security which engineered the coup that toppled Mr Thaksin in 2006. Club members discarded the charter booklets distributed prior to the constitutional referendum last year to highlight their anger against the coup makers.

At yesterday's party the members, some fighting back tears, listened to Mr Thaksin speak in both central and northern dialects for about 10 minutes. The former prime minister, a native of neighbouring Chiang Mai, said House Speaker Yongyuth Tiyapairat was also with him in Beijing.

"Aren't you excited that one of us from Chiang Rai finally made it as House Speaker?" asked Mr Thaksin.

Memorabilia such as CDs chronicling Mr Thaksin's life, caps, shirts and leaflets with updated news on the deposed prime minister were distributed at the party.

A table was arranged for participants of the event who were not already members of the club to sign up for membership.

The gathering was broadcast live through a community radio station and recorded by the People's Television station (PTV) team.

Club members also took turns speaking on stage during the feast.

"During Mr Thaksin's government, the economy prospered. People lived well and ate well," a villager who attended the party said.

"The projects introduced by Mr Thaksin's government were very useful to us, the 30-baht healthcare scheme and the Village Fund.

"But the change [after the coup] made our lives worse," one speaker told the audience.

Another villager said: "We want Mr Thaksin back."

COMMENT: One might call this Thaksinmania or the beginnings of a personality cult. It is about being able to connect with the voters which is crucial. Something that both Abhisit and Samak could learn from.

btw, audio of the events is available from here.

The Bangkok Post reports:

The Election Commission has set up a sub-committee to investigate whether Prime Minister Samak Sundaravej is qualified to be prime minister. Election Commissioner Praphan Naikowit said the poll agency had received complaints over Mr Samak's qualifications and it felt duty-bound to accept them for consideration.

Senior attorney Prateep Pruengwong will head the sub-panel looking into the complaints.

Mr Praphan expected the investigation to take a maximum of one month to complete because the probe will focus only on legal interpretations rather than finding facts.

Those who filed complaints argued that Mr Samak was not qualified to become prime minister because he was once elected as a senator in 2006.

They cited Article 116 of the 2007 constitution which bars senators from taking up a cabinet portfolio or other political posts for two years after they leave office. Mr Samak and other senators-elect had their April 19, 2006, election results endorsed, but had no opportunity to start work.

This was because the Council for Democratic Reform (CDR) staged the coup that deposed prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra on Sept 19 and dissolved the Senate.

The CDR was renamed the Council for National Security, which became defunct when the elected government was sworn in under the 2007 constitution.

However, observers noted that Article 296 says Article 116 does not apply to senators who were elected in the last election.

They said the clause was added to the new charter because it was unfair to exclude senators elected in 2006 as they had done nothing wrong.

Interestingly, one Election Commissioner has criticised his fellow commissioners:

Election Commissioner Somchai Jungprasert has given the nod for Samak Sundaravej to serve as prime minister despite calls he may not be eligible since he once served as a senator.

"Mr Samak is fully qualified to serve as the country's leader so there shouldn't be any more demands for the Election Commission to question his right to be prime minister," Mr Somchai said. "I find it a complete waste of time and national budget to be investigating this matter when the country is already moving in the right direction. People who insisted that the EC check up on his eligibility need to have their heads examined. They just want to create more problems for our country."

The election commissioner then expressed disappointment over the low voter turnout at the advanced senate polls over the weekend.

"Few people came out to cast their ballot because current laws don't meet with their demands. For example, only one senator is allowed to be elected in Bangkok when there is large number of voters in the capital."

He urged voters to exercise their rights on March 2 - the official date that the Senate election is due to take place.

Article 296 states:

At the initial period, the persons having been senators elected for the first time under the Constitution of the Kingdom of Thailand, B.E. 2540 shall not hold positions of senators whom will be firstly acquired under this Constitution, and the provisions of section 115 (9) and section 116 paragraph two shall not apply to the persons whom elected for the last time under the Constitution of the Kingdom of Thailand, B.E. 2540.

COMMENT: Do we need a one month investigation?

Somchai also said in a TV interview urging people who want to change the law later to vote in this election and then campaign change the law later.

Interesting article (cache) and op-ed (cache) about the "Pointing Room" in Thai Criminal Procedure. The room where no lawyer can enter and which is not officially provided for by law.

As we know Chirmsak had a radio program which no longer is. Chirmsak says that an executive of the radio station, owned by Fatima, told him that Jakrapob called the executive to take the program off the air and then asked for "Chirmsak to cover up the issue because Jakaprob could face impeachment for allegedly committing unconstitutional offence of media interference".

Jakrapob denies this stating that he never called or instructed anyone to call anyone and the Fatima executive has affirmed this in a press conference. There was talk of checking telephone logs, but the media seemed to have dropped the story.

Fatima said:

"We are just a contractor, and not the owner of the station. If the ajarn [Dr. Chirmsak] continues to host his program it might have an effect on our concession. Mr Chirmsak has shown his spirit by stopping his program indefinitely".

COMMENT: I have no doubt that those who dislike Thaksin will likely believe Chirmsak whereas those who like Thaksin will likely believe Jakrapob. We seem to be at a juncture. I do wonder why Jakrapob would have confidence to call the Fatima executive and ask for Chirmsak to be involved in part of the cover-up, would anyone on the Thaksin side trust Chirmsak? This seems far-fetched to me.

The Fatima executive has denied at a press conference so was he lying then or was he lying to Chirmsak (or is Chirmsak lying about what was said). It was in this regard I was reading a Prachathai thread about an op-ed in Lok Wan Nee [World Today] which stated that the company is connected to (ความพัวพัน) a well-known family (ตระกูลดัง) in Soi Ratchakru. The op-ed states that the situation was more complicated than what Chirmsak explained and that reason that Chirmsak was removed was because if he continued to talk about October 6, 1976, the truth could come out. He would go beyond the death toll and involved it would not just be Samak who would be hurt. Samak was just a minor player (สมัคร สุนทรเวช เป็นเพียงเด็กๆ) and the big players who were behind what happened would come under scrutiny.

NOTE: Soi Ratchakru is a soi close to the Soi Aree BTS station and a number of influential families live there. You have the families of Phao Sriyanond and the Choonhavan families - also the Public Relations Department is there (although not sure if the street address is on the soi, but it is adjacent from memory). Historically, there have been conflicts between the powerbrokers on Soi Ratchakru and Soi Sri Sao Thewes where Prem lives, but where Sarit Dhanarajata, Thanom and Praphas were based in the past.

COMMENT: Dr. Chirmsak is quite out-spoken so it is certainly plausible that certain powers that be would be afraid of what he was to say and have wanted the whole October 6, 1976 discussion to be shut down.

btw, does anyone know which family grouping is connected with Fatima?

First Adisorn and now Chaturon:

Former acting Thai Rak Thai party leader Chaturon Chaisaeng called on Prime Minister Samak Sundaravej to study history more thoroughly before speaking to the press about the October 6, 1976 uprising.

His statement came after Mr Samak's recent interviews with CNN and Aljazeera that only one unlucky person died on Oct 6.

Mr Chaturon said more than 40 people were killed in the student massacre.

He also urged "October people" in the current government to give more information on the massacre to Mr Samak.

Mr Chaturon also expressed support for the revision of the history of the uprising, but it must be done without political interests. All parties should be allowed to give their opinions on this issue, he added.

COMMENT: I heard Sanan on the news yesterday saying that Samak was referring to people he saw killed and today I heard Samak say something along the lines of "I saw what I saw". This of course does not correspond with what he said on CNN and if it is what he meant (or more likely the spin he is using now), he should explain it more thoroughly and state for the record how many people he believes died and not how many people he saw. It is getting a little late and doing nothing just leaves the issue unresolved.

btw, again we have calls for some kind of enquiry on what happened, but Sanan disagreed with such an idea.

The Bangkok Post reports (cache)

Sunai Manomai-udom, the head of the Department of Special Investigation (DSI), was abruptly transferred yesterday to a new agency under the Justice Ministry and has been replaced by a close aide of ousted prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra.

A source at the ministry confirmed news reports that Justice Minister Sompong Amornwiwat yesterday signed the transfer order. Mr Sunai has now been appointed acting secretary-general of the Office for the Protection and Suppression of Corruption in State Sector, a new agency being set up under the ministry.

The transfer order is expected to be forwarded to the cabinet for endorsement on Tuesday.

Pol Col Tawee Sodsong, the deputy secretary-general of the Office of Narcotics Control Board (ONCB), has replaced Mr Sunai at the DSI as acting director-general.

Pol Col Tawee served as deputy director-general of the DSI before he was transferred to the ONCB after the Sept 19, 2006, coup. He is considered to be a close aide of former justice minister and deputy leader of the dissolved Thai Rak Thai party (TRT) Pongthep Thepkanchana and Khunying Sudarat Keyuraphan, another former TRT deputy leader.

Pol Col Tawee was in charge of an investigation into stock manipulation allegations at the Thai Petrochemical Industry Plc (TPI), whose founder Prachai Leophairatana was highly critical of Mr Thaksin.

The DSI is now responsible for several corruption and scandal cases, including charges against Mr Thaksin, his wife Khunying Potjaman and two members of the Damapong family over the alleged concealment of their shareholdings in SC Asset Corp.

Besides Pol Col Tawee, who was transferred after the coup, Pol Gen Sombat Amornwiwat, the former DSI chief, was also axed. He is now on the advisory team serving Pol Gen Sompong, his elder brother.

Mr Sunai is the first department chief to be shifted since the People Power party (PPP), dubbed the rebranded Thai Rak Thai, rose to power after the Dec 23 general election.

He is also reported to be closely tied to the Justice Ministry permanent secretary Jarun Pukditanakul, who could be next on the transfer list.

Mr Jarun was appointed permanent secretary after the Sept 19, 2006, coup which toppled the Thaksin government.

Mr Jarun could land in the inactive post of inspector-general.

Mr Sunai said he has not seen the transfer order in writing. Mr Jarun told him about his new job and he felt unperturbed by the shift.

''I do not feel any pressure and will work as usual. Being a civil servant also requires being cool-headed,'' said Mr Sunai.

While his waits for the transfer order to be processed, he will assist Mr Jarun.

Mr Jarun had offered Mr Sunai, a former judge, the post of DSI chief after he became permanent secretary.

The news of Mr Sunai's transfer could unnerve other senior officials seen to have aligned themselves with Mr Thaksin's opponents and the now defunct Council of National Security (CNS).

Earlier, speculation appeared rife that Pramoj Rathavinij could soon lose his job as Public Relations Department (PRD) chief after PM's Office Minister Jakrapob Penkair vowed to deal with officials who ''went out of their way'' to please the coup makers. Mr Jakrapob oversees the PRD.

Rumours of more transfers have circulated in the Royal Thai Police Office and the Chiang Rai police office, including police chief Seripisuth Temiyavej, who will be replaced by his deputy Pol Lt-Gen Priewpan Damapong, the brother of Mr Thaksin's wife Khunying Potjaman.

A police source, however, denied the rumour.

In Chiang Rai, Pol Col Ekkapong Amornmuneepong, chief of Mae Chan police station in Chiang Rai, was re-assigned to work at Lamphun's Pa Sang station. Chiang Rai is the political strong-hold of PPP list-MP and House Speaker Yongyuth Tiyapairat, who is facing charges of electoral fraud.

COMMENT: The post who is probably in the safest position is Seripisuth. Thai Post has more details quoting a source as saying that:

....rumours of Seripisuth's transfer started on Feb 15 and intensified on February 22 so Seripisuth telephoned Samak saying no decision on a transfer had been made. The source is quoted as saying that Seripisuth believes the rumours are the work of senior police who were replaced after the coup and are to discredit the police". The source says that Seripisuth believes Samak as they are very close. Seripisuth has also spoken to Thaksin many times and does not believe an "order from Hong Kong" is in the works.

However, Seripisuth is preparing to run for the Governor of Bangkok as an independent and will be supported by PPP in exchange for him allowing deputy Pol Lt-Gen Priewpan Damapong to take over.

COMMENT: Seripisuth has a high level of popular support from his old days of somewhat of a maverick of the police force who was willing to take on everyone. His reputation has been enhanced since being head of the police, through those nice puffy TV and print media personal profiles. He has escaped all the police controversies over the last year, particularly in relation to the Border Patrol Police, as he has seen as taking tough action against the wrongdoers. Letting him leave on his own terms - I would assume later in the year and not during the mid-year reshuffle so he endorse his deputy to take over.

I would say he woud have a good chance of becoming Governor of Bangkok in 2008 as he is seen as a man of action, but that would be contingent on PPP support - otherwise you have a splitting of the vote and the current Governor, Apirak of the Democrats, if he runs again, would likely win.

It has been assumed that PPP were grooming Mingkwan (now Deputy PM and Commerce Minister) to run for Bangkok Governor, but he probably has his hands full now. If the economy improves before the race starts I wouldn't rule it out.

btw, PPP needs to stick to this role of wheeling and dealing behind the scene as he knows most of the players. As we have already seen his talking to the media doesn't paint him in the best light.

The Bangkok Post reports:

Prime Minister Samak Sundaravej met in secret with army chief Gen Anupong Paojinda yesterday amid rumours that the meeting was about a reshuffle of commanders of key military units by mid-year, an army source said.

The source said Mr Samak, also the defence minister, drove his personal car to army headquarters quietly without a motorcade.

The source said Mr Samak cancelled his scheduled meeting with the defence permanent secretary, the navy commander, the airforce commander at the Defence Ministry the same day.

The source said Mr Samak wanted to have a discussion with Gen Anupong about the mid-year military reshuffle, which is to be finalised by March 15.

Also present was First Army chief Lt-Gen Prayuth Chan-ocha, the source added. This sparked speculation that commanders of key military units would be swapped around, the source said.

In focus are the military units that have always played a key role in staging past and recent coups such as the First Army which is in charge of Bangkok and the central provinces, the same source said.

''The visit could make military commanders mistrust each other,'' he added.

The source said Mr Samak was full of praise for Gen Anupong who has made it clear he would distance himself from politics.

Gen Anupong had been a target of criticism when he said he was ready to talk with Khunying Potjaman Shinawatra, wife of ousted prime minister Thaksin.

Previously, there were reports that Gen Anupong contacted Mr Thaksin on the phone in a bid to forge reconciliation. Gen Anupong strongly denied the reports.

He and Mr Thaksin were classmates at the Armed Forces Academies Preparatory School.

Gen Anupong will also accompany Mr Samak on a visit to Laos and Cambodia on March 3.

Mr Samak said Gen Anupong wanted to come along to visit neighbouring countries as it is customary for the new army chief to do so.

Supreme Commander Gen Boonsrang Niampradit said the reshuffle of generals' posts in the armed forces must comply with the new law regulating the powers of the Defence Ministry.

The law requires a committee to be set up which will have the final say in reshuffling the positions of generals.

The committee consists of two political appointees _ the defence minister and deputy prime minister minister _ and five officers, the supreme commander and the defence permanent secretary and the chiefs of the three armed forces.

COMMENT: I should note that Matichon also has details of the meeting.

1. Lt. General Prayuth and Gen. Anupong are the two persons with real power in the Army now - those close to them were moved into key positions at the last reshuffle. I think Gen. Anupong is acceptable to Thaksin/old power as (1) former classmate of Thaksin and he will need the support of their other classmates who are much closer to Thaksin, and (2) he has created, at least the appearance of a rift, with Gen. Sonthi in being more conciliatory with Thaksin/old power, and (3) he is more interested in not involving himself in politics and focusing on the Deep South, and (4) his palace connections.

I am not so sure that Thaksin/old power will want to keep Lt. General Prayuth around given his previous role in mobilizing the media against the old power and the fact that his classmates (Class 9 whereas Thaksin and Anupong are Class 10) are in the key regional positions in the army. My bet would be a transition of Lt. General Prayuth to something like Deputy Army Chief or Supreme Commander and to replaced by a Class 10 student (Major General Prin Suwanthat ?? - detained after the coup as he is close to Thaksin). It is just whether the transition is now or later in the year.

2. 7 people are needed for the reshuffle. The government has 2 already. If Gen. Anupong is on board they need only 1 more. Is Gen. Saprang the relevant Deputy Permanent Secretary? If so , given his conflict with Lt. General Prayuth in the past and as he has had his membership of the card-carrying-hating-Thaksin-club by Sondhi L of the Manager you might have the odd situation of Thaksin and Gen. Saprang being aligned- stranger things have happened in Thailand

3. So will Thaksin also conveniently be making a trip to Laos and Cambodia in March too?*

*This might be the reason for his delayed return. Rumour is that he has got his diplomatic passport back now (see Thai Post) and will be returning very soon, but no date is given. Thai Post reports within the next 2-3 days to stop the Oct 6 news story, but I am not so sure his return is that imminent I imagine some final details are being negotiated, but the story is he will return suddenly from elsewhere in the region. From what I have read and heard, it is almost certain he will return within the next 4 weeks.

UPDATE: He got 3 years in jail.

BBC reports:

A Moroccan computer engineer is due in court in connection with a fake Facebook profile set up in the name of a member of the royal family.

Fouad Mourtada, 26, was arrested on 5 February on suspicion of stealing the identity of Prince Moulay Rachid, younger brother of King Mohammed VI.

He has been in custody ever since his arrest in Casablanca.

A website supporting Mr Mourtada has published a letter addressed to the prince apologising for the incident.

The letter, which is said to come from Mr Mourtada's family, asks for clemency.

"Fouad Mourtada, like thousands of people who create fake profiles of well-known personalities or celebrities on Facebook, has in no way acted in a willingness to cause nuisance to Your Highness, for whom he has always shown the greatest of respect," the letter on the Help Fouad website reads.

He is accused of "villainous practices linked to the alleged theft of the [prince's] identity".

Earlier this week some Moroccan bloggers went "on strike", suspending their regular blog entries for 24 hours in protest at Mr Mourtada's detention.

Mr Mourtada's court appearance was initially set for 15 February, but was postponed for a week.

According to the website, he told family members who visited him in jail that he had been blindfolded and beaten unconscious at the time of his arrest.

COMMENT: Jakrapob, predictably, said the new government will file lese majeste charges against wrongdoers so repeating that Moroco experiment here would not be a good idea.

The Nation reports:

More than half the people surveyed in an Abac poll believe moves to set the record straight over the October 6, 1976 massacre is of no concern for them today and would rather the government solve the economic problems.

Dr Noppadon Kannika, director of the ABAC Social Innovation in Management and Business Analysis, said more than half of 1,404 respondents of Bangkok and outer suburbs surveyed on Wednesday did not offer any comment about the idea to expose the real truth about October 6, 1976. One-third said they did not agree with the idea, while 14 per cent agreed with the move.

COMMENT: This is not surprising given what I said before the poll was released:

I should note that for many people, they probably don't care that much about Samak's comments. It is unlikely to lead to protests on the streets - it is not some Shin Corp sale event. More people are concerned about the economy.

The article continues:

Meanwhile, less than half the respondents were satisfied with the policy debate between the government, the opposition and the National Legislative Assembly.

Of respondents who were happy, 35 per cent said they approved of the way the government has come up with a new working style; 25.5 per cent said it had good policies; 11 per cent said the national policy would help remind the government to work honestly; 10 per cent believe they have a willingness to work for the people, while just 9.5 per cent believed they are sincere and trustworthy.

Those dissatisfied with the House debate said it resembled a no-confidence debate with all the arguing.

Around 38 per cent said they disapproved of some parties, 9.6 per cent said each speaker only considered his or her own interests and not the country's, while 8 per cent said the debate was boring and not constructive.

Comparing the approval ratings between Prime Minister Samak Sundaravaj and Opposition leader Abhisit Vejjajiva, the latter scored 5.19 out of 10 in terms of being calm and collected, while Samak scored 4.4; Abhisit gained 5 out of 10 for credibility, with Samak receiving 4.9.

However, when asked about their overall view, respondents gave Samak a slightly higher score than Abhisit at 5.4 and 5.3 respectively.

Noppadon said the prime minister's weakness was in staying calm, but his strength had won him public sympathy and understanding. Men were more satisfied with Samak than women, while more women approved of Abhisit than men.

The PM's main supporters are over 50-years old, have a monthly income of less than Bt10,000, and a limited education, while the Opposition leader's supporters were younger, had more income and were better educated.

COMMENT: Samak is far from damaged and if the economy shows sign of improvement by the end of the year then his and the government's popularity will only increase.

btw, I wonder why women prefer Abhisit. Hmmm..

Thanong Khanthong in The Nation:

My bet is that the coalition is going to last at least two years because politicians hate election campaigns. They need time to recoup their investment. It is now in everybody's interest to let Samak run the government to keep the country moving. If he can revive confidence by jump-starting the economy over the next six to nine months, he will become a popular PM, barring his quick tongue. Watch out for a looming showdown between Samak and Thaksin.

COMMENT: I would personally say between 2-3 years is the most likely period for the reason that Thanong states. I would be extremely surprised if the coalition lasted less than 3 months as one of the PAD leaders thinks. I am not sure there will be a showdown between Thaksin and Samak which The Nation continues to push. Samak doesn't have the stamina to be PM for more than one term so he won't last as long as Thaksin. The Nation still thinks Thaksin wants to be PM, but I don't. My bet is Dr Surapong will be the next PM and he needs a few more years experience first.

Bangkok Post reports:

Former army commander Chettha Thanajaro called on Tuesday for a carrot-and-stick approach to southern insurgents, who he said have developed into terrorists. A report showed violence has again escalated, and the death toll in five years is almost 3,000.

Gen Chettha, leader of the Ruam Jai Thai Chart Pattana party and a former defence minister under ex-premier Thaksin Shinawatra, spoke during the third day of the parliamentary debate on the government's policy statement.

He told parliament that the southern insurgents have become full-fledged terrorists, and urged that the Fourth Army be given full authority to handle the problem.

The Fourth Army needs more forces to step up patrols in order to apply pressure on target areas, he said. The government must accept that the southern unrest has developed into terrorism.

At the same time, he called on the government to guarantee pardons for those who had joined the separatists but were willing to return to the national side before they committed any serious crimes. That could bring many of the insurgents back into the national fold, he said.

Gen Chettha, who was army commander in the early 1990s, is a member of the six-party ruling coalition, but has no ministerial post. It was the first time he has referred to the southern separatists as terrorists.

On Tuesday, Army chief Gen Anupong Paojinda visited the Internal Security Operations Command Region 4's forward command in Pattani province, as well as the the Southern Border Provinces Administration Center in neighbouring Yala. He made no comment after his tour on whether he considered that the southern violence had turned into a terrorism conflict, but he ordered faster integration of agencies involved in the fight.

Meanwhile, a report from the Issara News Centre based in Songkhla province said that the number of deaths attributed to the insurgents stood at 2,941 since the separatist rebellion flared into violence again in January, 2004.

That works out to an average of 72 deaths per month, but does not reflect the true, escalating nature of the southern violence, which currently has a higher death rate than any province in the Iraq war. In the first 15 days of February, 25 people were killed and 39 wounded in 43 violent incidents, the news agency reported.

COMMENT: The Issara News Centre article is here. This recent report does not show that violence "has again escalated". In fact, the lede says says the violence dropped off in the first half of February - 43 people died between January 16-31 versus only 25 between February 1-15. It also notes, in a graph, that the number of incidents (69 vs 43) and injuries (53 vs 39) also dropped, so how does this report signal an escalation of violence? If you think about it an average of 72 deaths a month* and only 25 deaths in half of that month means 50 deaths a month so this in itself doesn't signal an escalation in violence.

I am not sure about the higher death rate than any province in the Iraq war - no figures are provided to prove the claim either. This is a bold statement and isn't mentioned in the Issara News Centre article which is the impression the Post's article gives. I looked at figures of civilian deaths in Iraq for all of 2007 in this post and compared them with the Deep South and the violence in Iraq was still higher. When time permits, I will look at more recent Iraq figures (since the drop-off in the violence) and try to include non-civilian deaths as the Issara News Centre figures includes all deaths.

Most of the killings in recent days have been drive-by shootings or assassination-type murders apparently aimed at intimidating people even tempted to support government forces. That was a main factor in Gen Chettha's decision to label the southern gangs as "terrorists." Most of the victims this year have been Muslims, and a majority of the nearly 3,000 killed since the insurgency flared up again have been Muslims.

COMMENT: Huh???? Drive-by shootings and assassination-type in recent days. Such killings have been a hallmark of the violence for a long time now.

btw, Gen. Chetta is right when he says that the Fourth Army needs more forces to step up its patrols. I have been arguing this for a while - see here and here.

*I don't quite get the average of 72 deaths a month since January 2004 either as 4 years (technically, 4 years and one and half months now) of 72 deaths a month equals 3,456 deaths, but the article states 2,941 deaths so where are the other 500 deaths then. Issara News Centre refers to half-month cycles (i.e 1-15 and 16-30/31). For simplicity sake, I will start from the beginning of January 2004 and there have been 99 half month cycles up until February 15. This equates to an average death toll of 29.71 per half-month cycle or 59.41 per month. Far short of 72 deaths a month.

Every week, Matichon Weekly include some quotes of the week. For the current edition (15-21 Feb, edition)

Dr. Surapong Suebwonglee, Finance Minister, quoted in Khao Sod on February 12, 2008:

มาตรการ 30% เป็นหน้าที่ของธปท.จะตัดสินใจ     

[My own translation: The 30% [capital reserve] measure is up to the BOT [Bank of Thailand] to decide upon]

COMMENT: Interesting he is shifting responsibility for the decision to the BOT. I guess if there is a problem, he can always blame then as many have been saying that

Somkiat Pongpaiboon, PAD leader, quoted in Lok Wan Nee (World Today) on February 11, 2008:

รัฐบาลจะอยู่ไม่ยาว จะอยู่ได้ไม่เกิน 3 เดือน 

[My own translation: The government won't be around for long, no longer than 3 months]

COMMENT: So when does the clock start? Things can change quickly in politics, but I would be surprised if the government didn't last at least one year.

Kaewsan Atibhoti (yes, this Kaewsan), AEC/ASC [the committee investigating Thaksin's assets] Spokesman quoted in Kom Chad Luek on February 7, 2008:

ที่บอกว่า คตส.ถังแตก หรือรัฐบาลไม่ให้งบฯ ดูหนังภารตะมากไป   page 49

[My own translation:  Saying that AEC is broke or the government won't give us a budget, you have been watching too many bharata movies]

COMMENT: Bhrata means Indian movies, usually considered to be of little substance where people dance around and sing. Interesting he doesn't use the term Thai lakorn [soap operas] instead. The quote concerns the Budget Bureau being denied a request by the AEC for additional money which has meant they have had to reduce costs.

Samak Sundaravej quoted in Thai Rath on February 7, 2008:

คณะตุลาการรัฐธรรมนูญไม่ใช่ศาล  page 55

[My own translation: The Constitutional Tribunal is not a court]

COMMENT: In reference to the decision by the Tribunal set up by the coup leaders which dissolved TRT and banned the 111 TRT executives from holding political positions for 5 years, Samak has been considering an amnesty later in his term - see here for more.

AFP reports:

A 46-year-old Buddhist man was shot and then set ablaze as he tried to escape an attack by suspected Islamic separatists on Tuesday in Thailand's Muslim-majority south, police said.

Netr Noh-uma, a highway department official, was shot as he was riding a motorcycle with a colleague in Pattani, one of three provinces along the Malaysian border hit by four years of separatist unrest, police said.

A 34-year-old man was riding the motorcycle with him. He was also shot but managed to run away, police said.

Netr was too seriously wounded to escape. Police said that when he fell off the motorcycle, two militants doused him with petrol and set him on fire.

They burned him alive after he was shot and fell from his motorbike.

COMMENT: Fear is the goal.

Prachatai reports:

Debating on the 6 October events has become a political tool of both leftists and rightists in the present game of post anti-Thaksin and anti-coup struggle but it will not shed any light for later generations unless facts were learned and shared by a majority of the people-not a handful of the October Generation, said academics at a seminar yesterday.

Thanet Aphornsuvan, dean of Faculty of Liberal Arts, said the 14 October 1973 and the 6 October 1976 events have yet to become history, "It is still a struggle not a settled history; it is not agreed by the nation what really happened, such as the state-written history of, say, Sukhothai."

Mr Thanet, also a historian, said Thai society could not be perfect if the two events and the May massacre sixteen years later remained only a legend or memories of a certain group of people.

Kanokrat Lertchoosakul, a political science lecturer at Chulalongkorn University, said the rise of Samak Sundaravej as the unexpected prime minister of Thailand has caught the former students who backed Thaksin camp off guard, but has even more enraged their colleagues who were against Thaksin.

The heated debate on the October incidents outside the "October commemorative season" was not born in a vacuum but was embraced as a political tool in the context of those who fight against and those who support the Thaksin camp and those for and those against the coup, said Ms Kanokrat, also a Ph.D student of the London School of Economics.

The more Mr Samak defended the October issue, the stronger it might be for those who would like to topple the Samak government, she suggested.

However, the lecturer noted that resurrecting the October history simply to serve certain political purposes in the present context would not eventually lead to any lessons learned by Thai society, especially the younger generation.

"Certainly, it has not been easy and in fact has been painful for both rightists and leftists to regain a foothold in Thai society. But we still need it to be a public issue not a story or legend told by a limited group of people. The history of October has yet to be written beyond the history of violence or the number of the deaths; (history resurrection) needs to be a process of public learning," said Ms Kanokrat.

Sirote Klampaiboon, a Ph D candidate at the East West Center, said 14 and 6 October was a history of the bruised, whose deaths that could still be resurrected, but the May history was a real dead death.

"Why is there a fuss about what Samak said about October, but not the May massacre which took place while Samak was Deputy Prime Minister in the Suchinda government? Because those who died in that event were the so-called proletariat and the rural poor while the October deaths were heroes, since they came from the student class," challenged Mr Sirote.

Talking about the 6 October events was a political tool rather than a quest for truth, "Those who defend the students also focus only on the fact that the protestors were not socialists or communists but innocent students and democracy lovers, which might not be the case for several who died or fled," said the historian.

"The post-May events have led to a compromise between an elite group in Thai society, including the so-called October students, and they have departed from the true objective of political reform, or army reform and decentralization, but have become part of the ruling class," said Mr Sirote.

COMMENT: Sirote is an interesting character! I will just briefly comment on Samak in the Suchinda government, shouldn't one look more at Surayud's role in Black May* than Samak (Surayud was the commander of special forces who were behind many of the killings - see here and here)? It would be kind of hard to go after Samak and not go after others.

I should note that for many people, they probably don't care that much about Samak's comments. It is unlikely to lead to protests on the streets - it is not some Shin Corp sale event. More people are concerned about the economy. I very much doubt it can be used to topple Samak - I mean he is in effect standing up for the establishment and who thinks the military would stage a coup on the grounds of Samak defending them? It is also, not the No 1 news story in the Thai media. btw of example, Tuesday's TPBS the lead item on the evening news broadcast was the price of pork and then the exchange rate. They eventually go onto the coverage of the seminar at Thammasat University.

*Check out this excellent find by Friskodude on some rare Black May footage.

Tulsie continues to surprise and bewilder with his latest op-ed:

Whether, or to how great an extent, Samak Sundaravej was involved in the October 6, 1976 infamy should be the least of our concerns, and so should whether he's being honest or telling every lie under the sun.

After all, fresh experiences have taught us that what a Thai prime minister or Cabinet member did five or six years ago doesn't count as far as political integrity goes, let alone something that took place more than three decades ago.

Character scrutiny exists in Thailand for political purposes only. Morality is cited as a pretext, just to make it sound nice. This happens everywhere

in the world, but we must top the rankings when it comes to the biggest number of character debates with the least positive outcomes.

The real question is whether our society really cares. If the academics or former activists currently making noises about "distorted" October 6 history are truly serious, why didn't they come out beforehand? The logic is simple, isn't it? If Samak's role in, or attitude toward, October 6 was acceptable to them at the time he was poised to be prime minister, it shouldn't bother them now.

COMMENT: The concern/outrage over Samak's comments is not about his role on October 6 - if you really think that Samak played some big role well I don't expect to convince you otherwise. For me it goes to his competence. More below.

Ultimately, however, caring about October 6 doesn't mean saying "No to Samak" based on the history. October 6 is always "there", like Everest. The challenge, though, is not to explore it or find the ones responsible and pillory them. What we should do is draw positive principles from those dark days and cherish them and live by them. Among the big lessons are the importance of a free media, the danger of giving any particular social force a stereotype, and the peril of politics of hatred.

COMMENT: Cherish the positive principles? Is he advocating a forgive and forget? One wonders if the topic was to turn to Thaksin, what would Tulsie think then? It is odd a The Nation staffer bringing up the "perils of politics of hatred" given all the hate it directed at Thaksin.

Have we been able to establish longlasting values out of October 6? After more than 30 years, society's concept of a free media seems more confused than ever, political stereotyping is rampant, and spawning hatred is how you win an election. Samak being able to downplay the Thammasat massacre or his "distortion" of history is just part of the fallout of a bigger failure. A prime minister saying nonchalantly that only one "unlucky" victim died in the incident is only a result of how much Thais have learned from October 6 and the October 14 pro-democracy uprisings and the lack of evolution from the two watershed events.

October 6 doesn't challenge Samak to speak the truth; it demands that the whole society moves itself toward genuine political maturity. It calls for tolerance and transparency from those in power, and non-violence from those seeking it. October 6 is there to remind us all how easy it is to turn from an idealist into a hypocrite overnight.

Life went on after October 14, 1973 and October 6, 1976. Many of the October warriors, some of whom went into the jungles to briefly join the communists after the Thammasat bloodshed, only to be disillusioned, have stayed around. They have been contributing one way or another to society as writers, social critics or politicians. Some keep the ideology, but others are serving as the living proof of October 6's ultimate truth - that truth is nothing unless you draw from it the ultimate good, which has to be fostered regardless of one's changing role.

October 6 doesn't prohibit having a prime minister who condoned it, because if all lessons have been learned, he will be well taken care of. What October 6 is against is the collective ignorance of true democratic values, or the politics of vengeance in the name of democracy. And there is no worse injustice to October 6 than misusing its name to cause more hatred or prejudice.

October 6 doesn't demand digging into history and finding the culprits. It does allow a character scrutiny, especially of someone important like Samak, but it also calls for such an act to be carried out for moral reasons. October 6 seeks to scrutinise each and every one of us and keep us on our toes. It wants us to make sure that if Samak is to be taken to task for his role in, and ideas about, the Thammasat massacre, the move has to come from a collective social conscience.

Arguing how many died will only get us so far. To Samak, it was an unavoidable crackdown on dissent, something provoked even. To others it was a cold-blooded massacre - and the fact that Samak was seen as some kind of a freedom fighter before the December 23 general election is an irony almost unbearable. In the end, it's not what Samak says about October 6 that matters, but what we really think of that sad, historic day.

COMMENT: Where does one start? I have no doubt that some of those behind the killings and the violence somehow felt they were acting in the best interests of the country, but the argument is not about Samak's opinion on why it happened, it is about the facts of what happened. If the argument was Samak was saying that 46 people died and someone was to respond, no it was 47! etc and we were arguing about a small difference in numbers* then arguing wouldn't get us far, but the argument is not about a small differences in facts.

Is anyone misusing October 6 to cause hatred or prejudice? Tulsie lost me here.

* I think Samak could also be excused for relying on the official number of people killed.

The Nation reports:

Adisorn Piangket, one of the October 6 student activists who fled into the jungle after the incident warned Prime Minister Samak Sundaravej that he is turning friends to foe for his distortion of the history.

Adisorn who is also one of the 111 former executives of the disbanded Thai Rak Thai Party said Samak had better apologise the public for his statement that only one person died in the incident. "We have pictures (of dead people) as evidence that many people were killed without justice,'' he said.

Adisorn said he lost his yonger brother in the jungle and his parents were hunt down and had to flee for life.

He support calls for a committee to set the record on the incident straight. "We need a neutral committee such as the media or the international body as members,'' he said.

COMMENT: The ball is in Samak's court. His nature doesn't suggest an apology is likely, but we will find out.

The Nation reports:

Democrat Party MP Pichet Phanpichartkul Monday attacked the Samak government's policies, saying they were like being copied from the policies of the Thaksin government.

Pichet said the populist policies of the Samak government were similar to those of the Thaksin government and could lead to problems, by causing the poor to be in debt.

Pichet said the policy statement of Prime Minister Samak Sundaravej was also similar to the policy statements of the Thaksin I and II governments.

Pichet was protested by People Power Party Sunai Julapongsathorn for mentioning Thaksin.

COMMENT: I am sure the Democrat "base" will love it, but perhaps someone should tell Pichet that Thaksin government policies were popular in the rural community.

btw, isn't he confounding the problem by mentioning Thaksin's name as it was Thaksin fever which pushed PPP over the line?

UPDATE: See below

Matichon has the details:

62 men and 12 women. The oldest is 73 and the youngest is 43.

14 policemen, 8 lawyers, 5 media personnel, 5 nurses and hospital staff, 3 doctors, 2 engineers, 1 architect, 4 governors or administrative officials, 5 students, 3 from agricultural sector, 1 fisherman, 3 from financial sector, 1 from transport sector, 8 business persons, 8 ex-NLA members, and 2 others.

14 from State Sector:

1. Jaruek Anupong, former Permanent Secretary of Transport
2. Jetn Siratharanon, former Director of Rama IV Hospital, Phetchaburi
3. Thirawat Kulavanijaya, former Deputy Permanent Secretary of Interior
4. Adm Narong Yutthawong, former Supreme Commander
5. Pichet Sunthornpipit, former Auditor-General
6. Phaibul Nititawan, former adviser to the Office of Auditor-General
7. Gen Lertrat Rattanawanich, assistant army chief of staff (close to Thaksin)- - currently in NLA
8. Songkram Chuenpibarn, former adviser to Secretary-General of National Security Council
9. Somboon Ngamlak, former Governor of Trad, Samut Sakhon, and Khorat
10. Lt Gen Suchinda Suthipong, specialist, Department of Royal Bodyguards
11. Supot Pohthongkham, former Governor of Chaiyaphum
12. Anusart Suwanmongkhon, businessman and Council of Cultural Affairs, Pattani
13. ACM Akhom Karanchanahiran, former Judge of Supreme Military Court
14. Pol Gen Amnuay Phetsiri, former Deputy Police Commissioner

15 from Private Sector:

1. Thavorn Linutpong, Board of Directors of Yontrakit Group (ยนตรกิจ กรุ๊ป จำกัด)
2. Thawat Borwornworanitchayakul, businessman
3. Thirawat Kulavanijaya, businessman
4. Nilawan Phetcharaburanin, scientist
5. Boonchai Chokwattana, businessman
6. Pichai Uttamapinan, head of some weaving and dye association
7. Lt Phumesak Hongyok, Real Estate association, Phuket
8. Yuwadee Nimsomboon, head of Catholic Association of Thailand adviser to Women's Association of Thailand
9. Rossukhon Puridej, retired Revenue Department official
10. Ruengkrai Luekitwattana, legal tax adviser
11. Rainan Arunrangsri, lawyers association of Thailand
12. Wanchai Saengsuk-iam, Chairman of private company
13. Pol Col Sontaya Saengpao, adviser to ISOC
14. Anothai Ritthipanyawong, member of National Economic and Social Advisory Council
15. Urai Kunanantakun, businesswomen

Professional Sector 15 persons:

1. Pol Maj-Gen Krirk Kalayanamitr, retired government official (note the surname, a relative of Gen. Saprang?)
2. Chalit Kaewjinda, engineer
3. Tuang Anthachai, educational lawyer
4. Assoc Prof Thassana Boonthong, former head of hospital association
5. Pornphan Boonyaratphan, former Dean of Public Health, Mahidol University
6. Russdi Binhayisamae, independent academic
7. Rainan Arunrangsri, Cultural Adviser to Iranian Embassy [BP: ???]
8. Wicharn Sirichaiekkawat, Head of Fisherman Association of Thailand
9. Wira Mawijak, engineer
10. Somchai Sawangkarn, journalist - currently in NLA
11. Samak Chaowapanan, lawyer
12. Admiral Surasak Sriarun, former head of some navy institute
13. Anan Worathitipong, former head of communications association of Thailand
14. Anurak Niyomwej, lawyer
15. Atchara Dejrittipitak, former Mahidol lecturer

15 Senators from Academic Sector:

1. Associate Prof Kobkul Phancharoenworakul, researcher of nursing
2. Khamnoon Sitthisamarn, freelance journalist - currently in NLA
3. Jamnong Suamprakham, former Secretary-General of Parliament
4. Choterat Chavanit, former university rector
5. Prof Truengjai Buranasompob, former university rector
6. Assoc Prof Songsak Srianuchart, former government official
7. Thanu Kulachon, private education administrator
8. Prasarn Maruekkhapitak, academic trainer - worked for Surayud government on public relations
9. Assoc Prof Pornchai Sunthornphan, law faculty, Assumption University
10. Prof Doctor Pinij Kullayavanijaya, former head of Medical Association
11. Pol Lt Gen Yutthana Thaipakdee, former Head of Police Region 6
12. Wittawat Bunyasathit, businessman
13. Dr Wirat Panichpong, Medical Association of Thailand
14. Professor Sukanya Sudbanthat, Communication Arts Dean, Turakit Bundit
15. Surachai Liengbunlertchai, lawyer

Others, 15 Senators

1. Lt Col Kamol Prachupamoh,former head of Department of Corrections
2. Gen Kasemsak Plueksawat, former Deputy Secretary of Defence
3. ACM Noprirk Manthajit, former Assistant Head of Navy
4. Thippaval Samutrak, former university dean
5. Prasong Nurak, independent academic
6. Prof Prasopsuk Boondej, former head of Appeal Court
7. MR Priyananthana Rangsit, head of Viphawadee Rangsit Foundation
8. Phairoj Thadthapong, adviser to school
9. Monthian Boontan, head of Blind Association of Thailand
10. Worawut Rojanapanich, sports journalist and world boxing council
11. Waedueramae Mamingji, Chairman of Islam Council of Pattani
12. Pol Maj Gen Suthep Suksanguan, อดีตสามชิกสมัชชาฯ ปี 16 ???
13. Pol Gen Sunthorn Saikwan, former deputy police commissioner
14. Anusak Kongmalai, Dentist, Administrator of Private Hospital
15. Ittiphon Ruengworaboon, farmer and recipient of Kamnan (of the Year?) Award in 1991

COMMENT: More to follow. The Manager crowd seem very happy so I take that as bad news.

UPDATE: The Nation reports:

Some well-known candidates failed to get seats while political pundits expressed mixed reactions about the result and the whole idea of a selected Senate.

The Election Commission announced it had approved the list of 74 candidates for the 150-member Senate as the first step before the remaining 76, each of whom represents a province, are elected on March 2.

EC secretary-general Sutthipol Thaweechaikarn said the appointed senators were from all areas of society, from farmers to an Army general and media representatives. Although they were not well known, they looked to have quality, he said.

Of the 74 senators, there are 62 men and 12 women. Twenty-four are bachelor's degree graduates, 41 hold master's degrees and nine have doctorate degrees. Eight are former members of the National Legislative Assem-bly.

An NLA source, who asked not to be named, said the selected senators were seen as the Council for National Security's representatives and supporters to balance the Samak government's power as, besides the CNS-appointed NLA members, 15 were from the military and the Royal Thai Police [BP: I think this is 14, but it depends how you define military and the RTP]. Moreover, Prasarn Maruek-khapitak worked in the Surayud Chulanont government's strategic team.

The Senate is empowered to remove ministers, appoint and remove members of independent agencies including the EC and the Constitution Court, and scrutinise laws passed by the House.

While the elected 76 senators will serve a six-year term, the selected 74 will serve only three years before a new selection takes place, according to the constitution.

Meanwhile, some well-known candidates were not selected, including the former dean of Chulalongkorn Uni-versity's Political Science Faculty Sujit Bunbongkarn, former Constitution Court judge Sawat Chotipanich,
scientist At-ong Jumsai, ex-diplomat Suraphong Jayanama and anti-alcohol activist Dr Prakit Thawee.

Others not on the list included former People's Alliance for Democracy member Somsak Kosaisuk and Singha Beer tycoon Jutinand Bhirompakdi.

Campaign for Popular Democracy speaker Suriyasai Katasila, said too few people from civil society had been selected.

Suriyasai said only about 20 of the 74 were known in wider circles to have track records of contribution to society. However, he said there appeared to be no clear linkage between political parties and the newly selected Senate. He said there may be a possibility of the bureaucracy guiding the Senate now that virtually half of the senators were appointed under the junta-sponsored 2007 Constitution.

Manager Daily journalist Kamnoon Sitthisamarn and former October 1973 activist Prasarn Maruekapitak became two of the 74 appointed senators, but that drew strong reaction from political activist Vipar Daomanee, who accused them of losing their democratic ideology.

Vipar argued that people like Kamnoon and Prasarn, who are pro-military but formerly pro-democracy, were selected because they could represent the military junta that staged the September 2006 coup.

Political scientist Sirote Klampaiboon, a former May 1992 activist, said the newly appointed Senate meant that power was being clustered in the hands of unelected representatives who now shared the same level of power as the elected Senate.

COMMENT: So who represents the interests of those in rural areas? We have one farmer from what I can see out of 74 people.

Courtesy of the Bangkok Post:

Article is available here and the book chapter can be downloaded from here - other writings by Giles can also be downloaded from there as well.

This is of course Democrat Party Leader Abhisit. I got the picture from Matichon, but according to Matichon it is from a post on Hi-Thaksin. It is alleged that in Abhisit's file there is no Sor Dor 43 or Sor Dor 8, but he has a sword at his side.

COMMENT: The two Sor Dor documents indicate that the person has done their compulsory military service so if he doesn't have one of these documents, he should not have a sword at his sword which indicates he has achieved a rank. I am not sure how big of an issue this is, but I wonder how much more information that those who support PPP have up their sleeve so we will have to wait and see.

The Bangkok Post has translated the editorial (cache):

Prime Minister Samak Sundaravej caused a big stir when he claimed during a recent interview with CNN that only one unlucky person was killed on Oct 6, 1976. His statement shocked people who were involved or have researched this important event.

Respected historian Charnvit Kasetsiri said Mr Samak's remarks contradict historical records, photographs and witness accounts. The official count is 46 people died when armed police and soldiers stormed Thammasat University on that fateful day. Students trapped inside were killed in one of the most vicious acts of brutality in modern Thai history.

It is believed the real death toll was actually much higher.

At his meeting with Thai students in France in 1977, Mr Samak, who was then interior minister, repeated a government announcement that 48 people died in the Oct 6 event. So why did he tell CNN that only one person was killed? His fresh claim is an affront to the victims' families and to people who want to see the perpetrators brought to justice.

How can a government leader utter such a lie to the international media?

It is said that winners get to write history. The Oct 6 students were the losers, so they had no part in writing this important chapter in Thai history. University students also spearheaded the Oct 14, 1973 uprising against the dictatorial Thanom-Prapass regime, but a complete version of this historic event has yet to be officially recorded.

It is time that independent academics were commissioned to review the two events. This should not be seen as revenge. If the truth is not told, we are likely to repeat the same mistakes again.

COMMENT: I think it is clear that Samak knows more than one person was killed so it is a question of why he lied to Dan Rivers.

Hmmm. Was Samak being more cunning than I thought? I am still not completely persuaded, but how things are playing out, it is becoming more plausible. His feud with Prem is long-standing and goes back since at least 1983, and one only needed to witness Samak's antics before the election to realise there is no love lost. Now, given he can't criticise privy councillors because of the coalition agreement, but the last week's news coverage has been dominated by what he said about October 6, 1976. This has opened up a can of worms. Talk of independent academics reviewing events might upset certain people whose role is not discussed and they would prefer to keep it that way. However, in today's current environment, discussion of such issues is more open. The government could also ensure that the committee was not stacked full of conservative elitist academics either. Now, if some independent committee was set up, I would be more persuaded.

The Bangkok Post reports (cache):

The bad news for the nation is that last week's short, sour debate over limited autonomy has revealed that this government, like its predecessors, has no coherent or healing policy for the deep South.

The good news, however, is that many Thais are not just giving up. Particularly in the South, there are reasons for guarded optimism. For certain, violence continues to escalate. In many districts, the death and injury tolls from bombings and killings have far surpassed the war in Iraq. But men and women of good will and initiative are making strong advances.
...
Meanwhile, the violence continues. Last month, the number of insurgent murders doubled from December, to 55. Figures from Deep South Watch show that violence in the South of Thailand last year killed and wounded more people than the worst reported warfare in Iraq. This is unacceptable, both for the sake of the southern people and for the huge threat it poses to national security.

COMMENT: It is the case in some sub-districts as I noted in this previous post that there is more deaths per 100,000 inhabitants in those sub-districts than in some parts of Iraq, but it certainly would not be the case if looking at the overall picture of all 3 or 4 provinces in the Deep South compared to Iraq. The Iraq Body Count lists the following figures for all of 2007:*

1. Diyala, at 255 violent civilian deaths per 100,000 inhabitants (up 29% from 197/100k in 2006)
2. Baghdad, at 164/100k (down 39% from 267/100k)
3. Anbar, at 122/100k (up 61% from 76/100k) 4
4. Salah al-Din, at 120/100k (up 26% from 95/100k)
5. Ninewa, at 100/100k (up 143% from 41/100k)

*see previous post for disclaimer on statistics

For the Deep South:



Source: Isara News Centre
NOTE: Only 4 districts of Songkhla (Thepha, Saba Yoi, Chana,Na Thawi) are included in the figures.




Source: Deep South Watch
NOTE: Songkhla figures excluded as don't have District breakdown. I should note this is only one segment of the Deep South Watch figures and where they have detailed statistics on each death. They only seem to record about 70% of the deaths, so the Isara overall figures are more accurate, but this is a general breakdown.

UPDATE: Below

In regard to Samak's interview on CNN where he stated that only one person died on October 6, 1976, Somsak Jeamtheerasakun of Thammasat University started a thread in Thai at the Fah Diew Gun webboard. I have a summarised translation of his post below:

To Dan Rivers regarding your question about October 6, 1976.

I would suggest that there are two persons who can be interviewed about this issue.

I am pleased that Dan Rivers asked Samak about Oct. 6, but personally I didn't see his response as that newsworthy as Samak has stated something similar in the past many times. If Dan Rivers is really serious about Oct 6 and wants to ask active public officials or public figures about their roles in Oct 6, I have two suggestions and guarantee it will be more

Suggestion 1:

I would suggest to Dan Rivers that he seek a royal audience with Princess Sirindhorn and ask about a funeral for one Village Scout member, one of the groups involved in storming Thammasat University, that she attended only a few days after the events of October 6. This Village Scout member died and she gave the following eulogy:

"The carrying out of duties [was in accordance] with the oath of allegiance and it should be praised as an example for other village scouts in the future in regards to loyalty to the nation, religion, and king".

I would suggest that Dan Rivers ask whether the Princess affirms her previous statement and whether the actions of storming Thammasat University where in accordance with "their duties" and "should be praised as an example" and whether she made any statement towards the Thammasat University students.

Suggestion No. 2:

I would suggest that Dan Rivers interview Mr. Tanin Kraivixien, currently a Privy Councilor, but on October 6 had the role of "mobilizing" persons on TV against the students, not that different from Samak. After his activities, he obtained the position of Prime Ministers and purged those who survived.

I would suggest that Dan Rivers ask him how he feels about what happened on that happy. From what I have read from interviews with him I haven't heard any express any feelings about what happened with students.

COMMENT: I think we will be waiting for such interviews until sometime after Prem confesses his role in Thai politics over all these years (i.e when pigs are flying)

Thongchai Winichakul, a Professor at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, had an op-ed in Krungthep Turakit on February 16. It is somewhat longer than Ajarn Somsak's post above so my summary will be much more of a summary. The title of the op-ed is "Don't Stop at Samak". My summary:

I was sad over Samak's statements about October 6.

Mr. Samak does not accept responsibility and distorts the facts which is unrelated to opinion.

This intention to make October 6 a small issue in Thai society is sad. It is a rejection of lives lost and shows disrespect for the families.

Samak is not the only person who has done this over the last 3 decades. Others have also done so.

Thai society is not that different to Samak and tries to forget what happened or make it a small event. Has not provided an answer as to what happened.

Samak's denial of responsibility is not special, he is just representative of Thai society including the media who are criticizing him to death.

A person with an important role in organising and planning, but doesn't like to openly talk about it.

Newspapers or political movements don't know or pretend not to know about this and are the same who acting all precious now.

Don't just stop with Samak and ask others who had a role such as:

1. Military officers who later rose in the ranks before retiring had a role in coordinating with the right-wing groups. They organised an important meeting on the morning of Oct 6 1976. These same soldiers were involved in the movement against Thaksin and involved in the 2006 coup.

2. A military officer with an important role in suppressing communists and who allowed for military officer close to him to coordinate with many groups. This person later became very big in government and outside of government.

3. Did anyone notice than the Border Patrol Police at 2am on October 6 started from Hua Hin and arrived at Thammasat at 6am?

4. Others, including radio stations and village scouts. There has been no investigation. Who was involved in the army radio stations and in charge of the village scouts? They had a much greater role than Samak.

Don't stop with just Samak, go to the important people. Attacking just Samak, but not asking questions about the more important persons, might help newspapers to please themselves, but they are deceiving themselves and Thai society.

COMMENT: On 1, I assume he is referring to Class 7 military officers. On 2, I assume he is referring to a certain white-haired Privy Councilor beginning with P? He could be referring to someone else. On 3, hmmm.. Hua Hin and Border Patrol Police.

I agree with both Somsak and Thongchai. I have been bemused for a while on the criticism directed at Samak over October 6, but the criticism stopping with Samak like he was the key person behind it and no one else was involved. This isn't not just now, but has been happening over the last 10 years.

btw, hat tip to Napup for pointing out both in this comment. Also check out Wise Kwai's blog post on Samak's statement

UPDATE: The Nation on Thongchai's letter:

Thai historian Thongchai Winichakul of the University of Wisconsin, Madison, wrote an article condemning Samak for distorting the facts and urging former student activists and others to go beyond the political agenda in criticising Samak.

"Going beyond Samak is the way to make the criticism of him worthwhile for the October 6 cause and to distinguish our criticism of Samak from those opportunists who attack him for the benefit of the anti-Thaksin political camp which includes the real criminals of October 6," he wrote.

Thongchai was among student leaders who were arrested and detained for two years.

From TPBS' new investigative current affairs program entitled, Berd Pom (Undoing the Knot), they had a report on the violence in the Deep South. I have summarised parts of the program below:

Interviews with some RKK members who stated that they were paid 300 baht (about USD10) each to place boms at various locations. They said they did it more out of fear.

Interviews with two other RKK members arrested in Yala about their training and post-training activities, they stated they were given "lessons" on the history of Patani and the need to become holy warriors. They then swore an oath of allegiance and went into training camps. Most of this group were university students. Some government official explains that there is a selection process. There are many rules for the RKK organisation. E.g. Told not to tell their parents and other relatives. Then given weapons and fitness training. They are not allowed to leave.

First, after completing training they start with simple tasks, like putting nails on the road to stop military vehicles. Then, they can later progress up to killing persons. Reconnaissance plans of up to a week to observe what the targets are doing are sometimes undertaken. After carrying out their acts, they then use their escape route and hide for a while.

One young person from Yala was asked to join. He refused to join as it was against the principles of Islam to kill. People were sent to kill him, a relative of his who he was with was killed, but he fired back (I understand he was some defence volunteer who had a gun). He survived. His advice for helping the situation was (in halting Thai) to give accurate religious information. An Islamic leader also said the same thing and said Islamic leaders need to take more responsibility on Islamic leaders giving accurate information.

For those who the authorities detain, some are sent back home to their parents, others sent to training camps, and others are prosecuted.

Teachers federation for the 3 southern border provinces sees that education is key as need education to change the views. Need new government to provide more security as teachers are a large target. Many teachers have left the area out of safety. The amount of danger money has been reduced (by who???) from 2,500 baht a month to 1,000 baht a month. At one school, there used to be 13 teachers not down to 8. A problem arises as some teachers lack necessary skills and training to teach certain subjects.

COMMENT: Interesting program. They showed one military camp where there was heavy security (cf. with this police station where 6 insurgents escaped from).

Very similar to iTV/TITV's Tord Rahat (Decode) program - I would hazard a guess that it was from one of the unshown Tord Rahat programs in stock which didn't air as TITV was taken off air suddenly.

UPDATE: Can we please limit discussion to FTAs and not get into Iraq, US foreign policy, or the personal characteristics of the candidates.

The Bangkok Post reports that McCain is in favour of a bilateral FTA with Thailand whereas Hillary and Obama have mentioned opposition of bilateral FTAs:

Democratic presidential contender Barack Obama this week renewed his opposition to the proposed free-trade agreement between the United States and South Korea, as well as other free-trade agreements in the Pacific region.

The junior senator from Illinois entered a statement into the congressional record on Monday, citing his "firm and unyielding" opposition to the Korean agreement until there is full denuclearisation of the Korean Peninsula.

Republican frontrunner John McCain, former senator from Arizona, in a speech last February, lauded the FTA with South Korea, and specifically mentioned Thailand.

"Completing FTAs with Thailand, Malaysia and South Korea, in concert with the agreements we have already struck with Australia and Singapore, should set the stage for an ambitious Pacific-wide effort to liberalize trade," he said. "Such efforts have very tangible impacts."

Talks on a US-Thailand FTA stuck before the Sept 19, 2006, military coup, over a variety of topics. Thailand has sought to protect key industries, and also is sensitive about the rice trade.

Obama, while opposing free-trade pacts, did say that an accord with Korea was important to American industries, including beef.

"I look forward ... to supporting ways to increase our bilateral trade and investment ties through agreements paying proper attention to our key industries and agricultural sectors, such as autos, rice and beef, and to protection of labour and environmental standards," he said.

He added that the FTA's current iteration "does not meet this standard."

Sen Hillary Clinton, the other potential democratic presidential nominee, also has opposed the FTA, although she has not spoken recently on the subject. In a statement released last summer, Clinton said, "I will oppose the pending trade agreements with South Korea.... [T] he South Korean agreement does not create a level playing field for American carmakers."

Clinton also has opposed liberalising trade with Thailand, particularly in the auto industry.

COMMENT: On the issue of bilateral FTAs, McCain is more favourable to Thailand.

Shawn Crispin in Asia Times:

A fiery orator and right-wing populist, Samak first captured the country's popular imagination in the late 1950s as a brainy schoolboy contestant on a question-and-answer television game show, Tick Tack Toe, which he won 18 months in a row. He later leveraged that popularity into a political career, first by joining the now opposition Democrat Party, and later by forming and leading the Prachakorn Thai party, which was in and out of government throughout the 1980s and often sat in opposition to then prime minister, now privy councilor, Prem's government.
...
Samak's loyalties are crystal clear in the perceived conflict between Thaksin and Prem, but become blurred when viewed through a wider royal prism. Some royal insiders believe that Samak's ambition to eventually be appointed - and perhaps even replace the 87-year-old Prem - to King Bhumibol's Privy Council outweighs his fealty to Thaksin. "There is a hope that he turns his back on Thaksin and re-elevates the monarchy out of the pit of politics," said one royal insider.

COMMENT: Add that to Samak's profile.

btw, from what I understand this same royal insider also thought that PPP would be dissolved by the Supreme Court in the case last month.

Courtesy of The Manager:



COMMENT: This is a photo of Thaksin and Chalerm in London with Chalerm's offspring. Other photos show Thaksin's wife. It is from a forwarded e-mail and is apparently from before the election. This is not really big news as it has been reported that Chalerm went to London to meet Thaksin, but this is photographic proof of the meeting.

After a week he should forget there appears to be some light at the end of the tunnel as The Nation reports:

Prime Minister Samak Sundaravej said Friday that he would not interfere with the operations of Thai PBS of Thailand's first public broadcasting service TV.

He said the Thai PBS has "frightening mechanisms" so he dared not touch it.

He was reporting to reporters' questions whether he would take over Thai PBS for improvement as a new government station.

"I dare not even to watch it. If the government steps in to improve it, the government will be severely criticised," Samak said.

He said those who are operating Thai PBS could be rest assured that the government would take it back [BP: I think The Nation means "not take it back"]. But he said the government would improve Channel 11 to compete against Thai PBS. "I challenge them to make it good and compare with ours," Samak said.

The Nation reports:

The government has plans to revamp staterun Channel 11 to become a modern television station for news and documentary programmed presented in a straightforward manner, Prime Minister Samak Sundaravej said on Friday.

"The revamped station will be run by professionals and everything will be legal and without the government interference," he said.

Samak said he wanted the news programmes to be fair and not skewed to favour the government.

As it was not legally feasible to establish a new television station at this time, the government had no choice but opted for the modernisation of Channel 11, he said.

He also denied speculation about the removal of Pramoj Rathavinij from his position as director general of the government's Public Relations Department who oversees Channel 11.

COMMENT: Obviously, the proof will be in the pudding, but let's be honest Channel 11 is a worthless channel which no one watches. It always has been a government-propaganda channel so whatever Samak and Jakrapob do it can't be worse than what it is now. Obviously, a couple of different channels offering quality news and a little competition between TPBS and Channel 11 can only be a good thing. Currently, since TITV was shut down there is no worthwhile TV nightly news in Thailand so the concept of two choices is a vast improvement.

Tonight, is the first day of TPBS broadcasting and I hope to update you later on whether the government is getting value for money for its 2 Billion baht - from a schedule I have seen there is kid's programs, national geographic documentaries, news (7-8:30pm, news commentary at 9:30pm and late news at 11:30pm) , and Chinese dramas. No mention of any TPBS produced documentaries/investigative reports or commissioned dramas, but this will obviously take time. At the moment, it is very bland.

btw, Somkiat from TRDI also suggested Samak improve Channel 11 when there was talk of a new channel. Hear me out here for a second, is it possible Samak intended to reform Channel 11 all along, but offered a diversion of a new channel. I say this because the Bangkok Post's Atiya Achakulwisut offers the same kind of theory for Samak's recent statements about 1976:

If any good can come out of Mr Samak's version of the Oct 6 truths, it is the realisation that this very dark spot in our historical past has never been straightened out. More than 30 years have passed, but still not much is known about who did what that finally led to the gruesome butchery? Who committed the actual crime of killing? And who were behind them?

Can this be Mr Samak's "atonement" for his role as a radio show host fanning ultra-rightwing sentiment, claimed to be one of the many factors that led to the bloody clash? Like old Briony Tallis in the film Atonement, who chose to repay her sin by recasting the tragedy she'd caused in a happier light, can it be that Mr Samak has chosen to recast the tragedy he knows, in a way that would instantly prompt people whose memory of the events remains vivid, or is fading - or even nil - to rise up, to ask, and to tell: what really happened on Oct 6, 1976?

COMMENT: Is Samak that cunning? I would say no after seeing another recent interview, but I wonder if it it that implausible. I say this about 1976 as Prem's friends were closely involved in the paramilitary groups behind the massacres, but these kinds of facts are conveniently left out and well we all know Samak and Prem are not the best of friends.

The Democrats have announced their Shadow Cabinet - Wiki has most of the names. This hasn't meet with widespread support as the Bangkok Post reports:

A poll by Suan Dusit showed that more than 60 per cent of voters oppose the formation of the country's first shadow government by the opposition Democrat Party.

Suan Dusit said it asked 3,219 people in 12 provinces nationwide, including Bangkok, about the issue last week, and 61.79 per cent of them said they disagreed with the shadow cabinet.

They cited absence of the law as the main reason for their disagreement. Other reasons given by respondents were that the shadow cabinet had an unclear role and it might create more divisiveness among people in Thailand.

Democrat leader Abhisit Vejjajiva announced he would form a shadow government to monitor and report on cabinet ministers' performance after it became clear the People Power party had formed a six-party coalition government which left the Democrats stranded as the sole opposition party.

Mr Abhisit will serve as shadow premier.

Only 30.63 per cent specifically liked the idea. They said the shadow cabinet could check the coalition government’s performance quickly, and pressure cabinet members to work diligently.

The 36 member shadow cabinet will meet for the first time on Monday, a day ahead of the regular cabinet's first official meeting. A week from Monday, the government is to present its policy statement to the House of Representatives.

COMMENT: Just put me in that 30.63%. I realise PPP is arguing the absence of law argument, but I don't quite get this as it is not some quasi-legal body with any kind of power. They just exist. It is like a faction within a political party, we don't have laws allowing for the existence of factions, but they exist.

An opposition party is needed to question government activities and keep them honest and providing for a point person on each cabinet portfolio is a much more sensible idea, if of course that person applies themselves to the portfolio at hand, than simply Abhisit, Korn, and Chuan answering every question. We will have to see whether it is just a shadow cabinet in name and the shadow ministers actually have a role to play.

The new constitution provides for 150 Senators of which 76 are elected and 74 are appointed. The Nation reports on the appointment of senators:

The selection committee for nominating 74 appointed senators on Thursday commenced the screening of candidates and expected to complete its work by February 19.

The committee, chaired by Supreme Court president Wirat Limwichai, would begin by shortlisting 15 names from the academic sector before moving on to candidates from other four sectors private, professional, civic society and state.

Each sector is slated to be allocated 15 senatorial seats, except the state sector which will have 14 seats.

The academic sector has 98 candidates put forward by 123 organisations. All five sectors have submitted 1,087 candidates.

Section 114 of the 2007 Constitution:

The Senators Selection Committee shall carry out the selection process for persons who may be beneficial to the performance of powers and duties of the Senate from persons nominated by academic institutions, public sector, private sector, professional organisations and other organisations to be senators in an amount as prescribed in section 111 paragraph one.

In selection of person under paragraph one, regard shall be had to knowledge, skills or experience of the nominated persons which will be beneficial to the performance of the Senate, and the composition of the selected persons shall be regarded to interdisciplinary knowledge and experience, genders [sic] opportunity and equality, closely apportion of the persons nominated by the organisations under paragraph one and opportunity of social vulnerable groups.

COMMENT: Don't academics and the state sector have enough power already? What about representatives from the rural community? I wonder how many of the private sector and professional organisation numbers will be made up of ex-generals.

It will likely be the only appointed Senate, but constitutional amendments are made.

A teacher at a private Islamic school in Songkhla was detained by the Border Patrol Police and military rangers. The teacher alleges he was tortured as Prachatai reports:

Following his release Mr. Aminudin described the torture he endured during his incarceration. He was detained at the forty-third Taskforce Military Base, Natawee District where 5 men carried out an interrogation during which he was tortured.

He was assaulted. His ears were boxed causing damage to his hearing. Following his pleas stating that he had lost his hearing in his left ear the officers threatened to make him deaf in both ears. The officers attempted to force him to confess to the shooting of a teacher in the Saphanmaikaen Sub-district and to bomb blasts at Nam Kem village, Banna Sub-district. He continued to deny his involvement in both incidents. As a result the officers beat him in between each question all over his body including his back and waist. When winded by the blows and complaining about not being able to breathe the officers responded by standing on his windpipe at least three times whilst accusing him of being part of the insurgency. He also had a gun held to his head and a knife held to his throat. At one point, according to Mr. Aminudin, he was given two options to either die in custody or to die outside--the officers said that he would be given a gun and told to run.

The officers tied a blanket into a wad and hit Mr. Aminudin over the head with it over 50 times, the use of a soft object fails to leave an obvious mark but with repeated use can do significant damage. His head was also tied in a plastic bag three times and an officer wearing gloves strangulated him. The ordeal is estimated to have lasted from 11pm on the night of February 5 to 2:30am on the morning of January 6 before Mr. Aminudin was sent to Ingkayuthboriharn.

Mr. Aminudin's medical report found that his left arm and head were swollen. He sustained injuries to his arms, torso and back. He suffered from headaches and ringing in both ears. His ear drums in both ears were broken.

His relatives sent him at 4pm on February 7, following his release, to Jana Hospital, which confirmed the damage done to him and sent him to Hatyai Hospital to receive further treatment. Mr. Aminudin and his family attempted to launch a case with the Jana District Chief officer and Chief of Jana District Police station, who told them to petition the Jana District Center for Justice and Fairness before launching their complaint. They also encouraged them to lodge a complaint in Natawee District Police station, the location of the incident. Mr. Aminudin and his family petitioned the Jana District Center for Justice and Fairness and then lodged their complaint to Jana District Police station.

Colonel Prayong Klahan, Commander of the Taskforce 4th, announced that investigations were being conducted by the Internal Security Operations Command (ISOC)--4th Region, the Civilian Police Military (CPM) joint headquarter and the Jana District Police station by Lieutenant Colonel Tavisak Kam-phud.

COMMENT: What on earth are the BPP and military rangers doing anywhere near this? Arrests should be left to the police with the military providing security. I will wait to see what comes of the investigation.

This is not the first and unfortunately won't be the last instance of allegations of torture.

UDPATE: Below

The Bangkok Post reports:

A radio programme contradicting Prime Minister Samak Sundaravej's controversial remarks about the Oct 6, 1976 uprising was taken off the air yesterday in a move that sparked fears about government attempts to silence critics.

The ''Chirmsak's Viewpoints'' programme, or Mum Mong Khong Chirmsak in Thai, which is broadcast every weekday from 8am to 9am on FM 105 MHZ, was halted yesterday, one day after Chirmsak Pinthong and co-host Thakerng Somsap talked about the prime minister's interview with CNN.

Mr Samak told the US cable channel during the interview on Saturday that only one demonstrator died during the demonstrations in 1976.

It was replaced by the one-hour ''English in the News'' programme co-hosted by Mr Thakerng and Sopon Ongkara.

Mr Thakerng admitted that the station had stopped airing the programme but he was not certain whether it had been forced to stop by the government.

COMMENT: Hmmm. Replacing Chirmsak with Sopon? It certainly won't be Thaksin-friendly hour.

Mr Chirmsak allowed the station to end his programme after talking to executives of Fatima Broadcasting International Co, who felt uncomfortable with it, he said.

Fatima runs the station with the concession given by the Public Relations Department (PRD).

But in his ''English in the News'' programme yesterday, Mr Thakerng told listeners: ''Now there is a storm with strong winds against Mr Chirmsak's programme.''

A source close to Mr Chirmsak gave a different account, claiming that the decision to end the programme came after Prime Minister's Office Minister Jakrapob Penkair phoned Fatima executives on Tuesday expressing his dissatisfaction about the content.

The minister threatened to cancel a radio broadcasting contract given to the company if it did not make the change, according to the source.

The source said Mr Chirmsak and Mr Thakerng did not make any comments against the prime minister. They only read an article in a book written by Veera Musikhapong to counter Mr Samak's interview.

The article came from the 306-page pocket book, Ngow Nang Pang meaning Gang of Five in English, published in August 1978, which criticised the administration of former prime minister Thanin Kraivixien and Mr Samak, then interior minister under Mr Tanin.

It also detailed Mr Samak's remarks given to a group of Thai students at a university in France on June 4, 1977 to try to restore the image of the country in the eyes of the international community.

The book quoted Mr Samak, who was duty bound to keep law and order in the country, as saying the clash between police and students during the student protests on Oct 6, 1976 led to 48 fatalities, four of whom were burnt to death.

However, authorities at that time later released the official figures of the dead, saying only 46 people died in the student uprising.

Fatima executives could not be reached for comment yesterday.

But Mr Jakrapob strongly denied that he was behind the closure of the programme, saying he had no policy of interfering with the station.

The minister said never contacted Fatima as claimed by the source or sent any message to the firm that he was displeased with the programme of Mr Chirmsak, who was a critic of ousted prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra.

The case will be clarified today in a press conference by PRD director-general Pramoj Rathavinij and Fatima executives, Mr Jakrapob added.

''I am totally not satisfied'' with the claim, he said ''because it could start mistrust between the government and the mass media.''

Rosana Tositrakul, head of 30 anti-corruption NGOs, said if the government was behind the closure, it should review what it did.

''The Samak government should listen to the voices of the minority voters and critics. It should work harder to make them trust it,'' said Ms Rossana.

Somchai Sawangkarn, former chairman of the Broadcast Journalists' Association, was surprised at the axing of the programme and called for media organisations to get the show put back on the air.

''We have to help bring back Mr Chirmsak's programme,'' he said.

Mr Samak's remark faces more heat as the network of the Oct 6, 1976 victims will gather on Sunday to condemn the prime minister for distorting history.

COMMENT: There is this announcement last night by the company in Thai Rath which I have summarised below:

Chirmsak did not host his radio program today as he severely criticised Samak. Normally, radio stations on the government network follow government policy. Because of the criticism we must be careful because it might not lead to a contract extension.

"We are just a contractor, and not the owner of the station. If the ajarn [Dr. Chirmsak] continues to host his program it might have an effect on our concession. Mr Chirmsak has shown his spirit by stopping his program indefinitely".

COMMENT: So did Jakrapob call Fatima? This is obviously the key question. At the moment, we have a source close to Chirmsak saying he did. His co-host, who is still on the air, has given a vague explanation. The company has given a vague explanation. Is it because (a) they received a phonecall from Jakrapob, or (b) based on past experience they were being cautious? Obviously (a) is concerning, but Jakrapob/PRD can clear up any confusion regarding (b) at the press conference.

btw, Chirmsak has been employed for 16 months so it seems he was appointed just after the coup.

UPDATE: Thai Rath reports that Jakrapob went on Channel 3 this afternoon to deny ever calling the radio station or instructing anyone to call the radio station. He says to Chirmsak if it is true [that he called] then "give the name of the person at Fatima [radio station] and do not play games". He says that telephone systems now can record calls so it can be investigated.

He further says he has requested the Director-General of the Public Relations Department to sort out the situation with Fatima and then to have a public press conference to announce the result.

The ball is not in Chirmsak's court. I should note that Chirmsak was appointed by the junta to be a Board member of the AOT and has long been critical of Thaksin.

This is a draft, but I will never finish it so here it is.

http://www.nationmultimedia.com/2008/05/21/opinion/opinion_30073579.php

The Nation reports:

The government cites the principle of sufficiency economy, which it will follow in accordance with the Constitution, but in practice it is ready to dig into someone else's pocket and borrow huge sums to bankroll a whole range of populist policies. Samak will discuss urgent tasks that his government would like to accomplish in the first year of office such as national reconciliation, tackling the southern unrest and eliminating drug abuse. But overall, we are about to witness a return of economic populism. Of particular concern are the 10 urgent measures to boost people's income such as revival and expansion of the Bt70-billion village fund; the people's bank (micro-loans for poor people); debt restructuring for farmers and the poor; the SME Bank; and the Otop (One Tambon, One Product) programme.
...
The Surayud government attempted to pump money into the rural economy through some populist programmes, but the money got stuck somewhere in the system, and people went without. Initial support for the coup quickly turned into disappointment and disillusion, and the Samak government was elected because of its promise to re-introduce the populist policies. On the surface these policies look promising, but they could pose a serious threat to Thailand's long-term economic health. There is no free lunch. All these policies have to be supported by the central budget, which comes from tax revenue. Most populist projects have the short-term effect of stimulating consumption, but they do not create long-term jobs or investment.

COMMENT:

Student loans are another seemingly excellent project for low-income families but in the end, most of these loans turn sour because few graduates are willing or able to repay what they borrowed.

COMMENT: Damn poor people taking higher education places from the middle class! Thailand's income contingent loan scheme is based on an Australian scheme - see here (PDF). Professor Medhi on some achievements after the first year:

Thai economist Professor Medhi Krongkaew from the National Institute of Development Administration has spent the last decade trying to introduce the ICL in his country. He said the long struggle was already paying dividends, yielding a 30 per cent increase in the number of first-year students in Thailand this academic year.

“People said it couldn’t be done. They said the tax system was not ready for it. But now, poorer students will be able to study at any school, provided they prove themselves capable. It’s a great result for equity,” Professor Krongkaew said.

“It will also open up higher education in Thailand for greater competition. Students will now make decisions about which school they attend, as money is no longer the defining object. This can only lead to healthy competition between institutions to lift the quality of their educational offerings.”
COMMENT: You won't find such statements in The Nation. There was previously a student loan system in Thailand, but it was poorly implemented - note who the PM was in - and according to the UN not financially viable (PDF).

I think the ICL address fundamental questions of inequality which exist in the higher education system in Thailand where the public system is dominated by the middle class and the upper classes - and publicly funded 80% - and the poor are forced into the higher paying private educational facilities - see Ajarn Medhi here (PDF).


Much worse, the state-owned banks and specialised financial institutions have also been brought in to provide loans to support these pet projects. Ultimately they will turn out to be non-performing loans. But we have already heard that several banks are jumping gleefully at the prospect of another opportunity to ask for government funding to increase their capital so they can resume their credit spree. The lesson of the bad credit situation during the Thaksin years has evidently not been learnt. Last year MR Pridiyathorn Devakula, the former finance minister, pointed out that the populist programmes created during the Thaksin years resulted in a Bt150-billion debt burden for Thailand. If these populist programmes were allowed to continue, they would eventually bankrupt the country, he pointed out.

COMMENT:


http://pages.citebite.com/l2s4p7a8rorx
http://www.bangkokpost.com/News/15Feb2008_news06.php
The Income Contingent Loan scheme should not be revived until its lending criteria are streamlined and there is a guarantee it will not be scrapped again in the future, said a leading academic.

Somkiat Tangkitvanich, director of the Thailand Development Research Institute's (TDRI) information technology-age economics research, said the government should not rush to bring back the ICL scheme unless the technical and management shortcomings are straightened out.

The programme was suspended by the previous government as it was plagued with defaults.

Mr Somkiat said financial security was essential in preventing the fund from becoming a financial burden on the state. The scheme, which was launched by the Thaksin Shinawatra government, ran into budget constraints.

He said corrective measures must be adopted so potential borrowers can feel assured the loans would not be abolished half way through their studies again.

The academic said, however, that the scheme had quite a sound system of chasing debts. But the fundamental flaw was in its lending criteria which did not screen out people undeserving of the loans, such as the well-off.

Loans extended across the board strained the government budget, he said.

The Samak Sundaravej government has considered a revival of the scheme.

''I'm very worried that the scheme could collapse along with any government. What's more, stability may not be the strength of this government,'' Mr Somkiat said.

He added that the government should spend the next two years revamping the ICL before resurrecting it.

Student Loan Fund manager Thada Martin said the government should ask for a royal decree to be issued to make the ICL more financially stable. There should be clear financial sources for the fund. In the past, only regulations issued by the Finance Ministry supported the operations of the ICL.

Here is a short article by an academic in 2006 on the jump from the previous scheme
to the "current scheme". Here is a newspaper article explaining the proposed new scheme.

This academic paper concludes that:
http://72.14.235.104/search?q=cache:Zne4iZ1rzA4J:www.eadn.org/reports/iwebfiles/i09.pdf+Financing+Thailand+Higher+Education%E2%80%99,+to+the+Thai+Government+conference,+Student+Loans+for+Thailand,&hl=en&ct=clnk&cd=1&gl=th&client=firefox-a
http://www.eadn.org/reports/iwebfiles/i09.pdf

It has been
demonstrated in this study that the main beneficiaries of university education are
children from well-off families living in the urban areas. Having recognised this fact,
the Thai government chooses to subsidise children from well-off families by help
Page 28
28
paying 70 percent of their tuition fees leaving many more children from poor families
with little opportunity to go to universities.

The Nation reports:

Prime Minister Samak Sundara-vej rejected a proposed list of secretaries on Monday, citing problems with image and qualifications.

A source said the list of secretaries representing people from the North, Central and Northeast did not cause any hassles, but problems stemmed from secretaries proposed within the Bangkok MP quota. He said many of the people put forward were inexperienced and some had failed as MP candidates.

Citing the proposal of Wan Yoobamrung as secretary to deputy health minister, they reasoned that even though Wan had earned a master's degree, Interior Minister Chalerm Yoobamrung had picked the wrong time to nominate his son because the government needed experienced hands to help it make a good start.

According to the list, Kamol Bandaipet is proposed as deputy secretary-general to a deputy PM; Leelawadee Watcharobol would be an adviser to the education minister; Nalinee Thaweesin would be an adviser to the commerce minister, Poowanida Kunplin would be deputy secretary-general to the prime minister; Pakdihan Himathongkam would be secretary to a deputy PM and Mana Kongwutpanya would be an adviser to the natural resources minister.

Suwat Wannasirikul, chairman of PPP's Bangkok MPs coordinating committee, said if Samak rejected the proposed names, the group would review the list. However, he believed the people put forward were qualified and had extensive experience.

COMMENT:This seems to be part of the effort to dispel the idea he is weak or simply a puppet. A cynical person would say it is simply a ploy as some unacceptable names were added to the list that they could easily be rejected. The Nation views this as a snub to the "puppet master" - does The Nation think that Thaksin was behind the appointments???

btw, perhaps Chalerm should send his children to go to work for a charity for a year or so to show they are reformed. Actions speak louder than words.

Thai Rath mentioned this the other day in their political analysis - as blogged about here - but Surapong confirms it is being looked at:

The 111 former executives of the disbanded Thai Rak Thai party could soon be paid by the taxpayers again, after Finance Minister Surapong Suebwonglee hinted that they may be appointed as board members of state enterprises.

The 111 executives were banned from politics for five years after the Constitution Tribunal ruled against them in electoral fraud cases.

Dr Surapong, also a deputy prime minister, said he was prepared to welcome the 111 executives as board members of state enterprises on the condition that they qualify for the job.

"We will only accept candidates who make the cut. Their role in politics may be restricted but that doesn’t mean that they are not capable people. I am certain that they will be able to contribute to the improvement of state enterprises," he said.

He added: "If the law doesn’t allow them to take on a position as a board member, they might be able to hold on to the position of committee member, we’ll see."

COMMENT: PPP can reward those TRT executives who didn't jump into bed with the CNS. An amnesty now benefits both groups so this is Thaksin's way of thumbing his nose at the "traitors".

I am a bit late to this, but like Andrew, I couldn't find a tape of what Samak said. Yoon's blog had a partial transcript, but only on the Thaksin part. However, I have found this transcript from the Bangkok Post:

In October 1976, soldiers killed dozens of left-wing students during a frenzy of anti-communist fervor. Mr Samak was at the scene, as deputy interior minister. His enemies accused him of playing a role to provoke the violence.

COMMENT: I assume this is the CNN intro which is actually incorrect. Samak has been removed as Deputy Interior Minister on September 20, 1976. From what I have read, he did play some role in the violence by statements he made on a radio station, but I have not read any reports on him being at the scene either.

Rivers: Some people are very critical of your past in Thailand.

Some people have even said you've got blood on your hands. What would you say to that?

Samak: Oh, I deny the whole thing. I had nothing to do with that at all. I was an outsider at that time.

Rivers: Would you like to take the opportunity now to condemn what happened in 1976?

Samak: Actually it was a movement of some students. They didn't like the government.

Rivers: But dozens of people, maybe hundreds of people, died.

Samak: No, just one died. There are 3,000 students in the Thammasat University.

Rivers: The official death toll was 46, and many people say it was much higher than that.

Samak: No. For me, no deaths; one unlucky guy being beaten and being burned in Sanam Luang. Only one guy died that day.

Rivers: So there was no massacre?

Samak: No, not at all, but taking pictures, 3,000 students, boys and girls lined up, they say that is the death toll: 3,000.

Rivers: People say that your very right-wing rhetoric inflamed the situation.

Samak: What's wrong to be right wing? The right wing is with the King. The left wing is communist.

Rivers: So do you think Thailand was in danger of falling to communism in 1976?

Samak: Well, a guy called Lomax, he wrote a book called Thailand: The War That Is, The War That Will Be. And he said that this is a domino theory. He said that there will be 10 dominoes in this area. So if Cambodia will be, Vietnam will be, Laos will be and Thailand will be number four domino. And from Thailand, it will be Burma, it will be Malaysia, Singapore. Small islands like Singapore. So many islands like Indonesia and later big islands like Australia and even two tiny islands down under. Ten countries will be communist. We are domino number four.

Rivers: Do you think it's excusable to kill innocent students in the name of defending the country from communism?

Samak: Oh, who kill the students? If the fighting is between the military, the military is to defend for the country. Somebody tried to bring communism into our country, it's up to (the military). The casualties... you must go to check what happened.

COMMENT: Many people in Thai society don't want to remember what happened in 1976, but I am speechless that Samak doesn't admit to even 46 people being killed. There is photographic evidence of bodies - I have seen other photos with different bodies - so I can't fathom where Samak is coming from. Is he (a) not even aware on what happened that day, or (b) simply lying? Either way, it is as Andrew said Samak's statement is a disgrace.

btw, perhaps some journalist might ask Chaturon or some of the other student activists associated with TRT or PPP for a comment on Samak's statements.

The Nation reports:

A member of a tambon administrative organisation and his son were shot dead in this southern border province Tuesday morning.

Police said Abdulmasi Sa-ae, 43, a member of Tambon Tanyong Limor in Rangae district was killed in side his pick-up truck along with his son, Nuradin Sa-ae, 18.

COMMENT: The other day I posted a chart, based on some figures from a university in the Deep South,* that Rangae District in Narathiwat had the highest death toll of any district in the Deep South in 2007 with 75 persons being killed. This means a homicide rate of 88.4 persons per 100,000 inhabitants - about 10 times the rate for the rest of Thailand.

*The death toll though is about 20-25% lower than other figures so keep this in mind.

UPDATE: As I have learned, trust The Nation at your own peril - see update below.

The Nation reports:

Interior Minister Chalerm Yoobamrung said Monday that he has received intelligence reports that there could possibly be bomb attack in Songkhla's Hat Yai area.

He said upon learning the reports, he ordered authorities concerned to intensify the security in the area.

He declined to comment whether the attack could possibly happen in other areas.

"From now on, the violence in the southernmost province will become in the national agenda," Chalerm said.

He said he did not agree with setting up "special administration zone" in the areas. [UPDATE: This is incorrect, he in effect says the opposite and that he is open to the idea - see this comment here and here]

COMMENT: There have been a few attacks in Hat Yai in the past so it is certainly a possibility. I am interested on how the government will make the violence part of the national agenda as the problem with this is if the violence gets worse - which the terrorists could easily up the ante - and it is in the public view then this can create a political problem for the government. I think anyway the media will start concentrating on the violence more. The cynic tells me they will use this to attack the new government anyway after certain sections downplaying the violence at times under Surayud.

Typically, an Interior Minister doesn't want to give up power. Since the update this no longer applies.

NOTE: I have changed the wording and made some corrections below.

The Nation reports:

[Saprang] would also demand Bt100 million in damages from the Manager Group for attacking his leadership in the weekend edition of the Manager newspaper, founded by anti-Thaksin campaigner Sondhi Limthongkul.

Before the about-turn, Sondhi was seen as a staunch ally of Saprang.

"I am not involved in corruption and there is no need to chair the boards of state enterprises in order to cheat," Saprang said.

He said he suspected a hidden agenda to fabricate the story to smear him, though he refused to explain about the ally-turned-foe.

"The people who concocted the story are evil and I will say no more although the local press could investigate and get to the bottom of the matter," he said.

The weekend report claimed Saprang was involved in a shady deal to award the concession for the limousine service at Suvarnabhumi Airport.

It alleged his poor leadership had resulted in a 90 per cent drop in last year's profit for airport services.

It also voiced suspicion at Saprang's involvement in awarding the contract for the third-generation of mobile phone services.

COMMENT: I am not surprised as Sondhi L's alliances change more often than I change my underwear. The fracturing of the anti-Thaksin coalition is not surprising, but these two were so chummy only a year ago at a Manager (New Year's Party ?) event:

COMMENT: The Manager has a string of articles which lay into Saprang. There are two articles in the Weekend Edition here and here. There are two other articles here and here. It pains me to read The Manager's prose so I had to leave it a few days as the first article started out with complete innuendo and like most The Manager stories completed lack any substance. I was somehow hoping the Post or The Nation might take out the story further. The Nation had this additional report:

General Saprang Kalayamitr on Tuesday attributed the recent corruption scandal to betrayal by "beloved" friends and insisted that he loved the country far too much to cheat.

"Throughout the 38 years of my service, I have honoured two things, the nation and the monarchy," Saprang said in an interview, admitting that despite his abilities in the combat zone, he knew nothing about politics.

On Monday Saprang threatened to sue the Manager Group for defamation stemming from a front-page report accusing him of corruption and poor performance as chairman of the Telephone Organisation of Thailand (TOT) and Airports of Thailand (AOT). He plans to demand Bt100 million in damages for an attack on his character in the weekend edition of the Manager newspaper, which was founded by anti-Thaksin campaigner Sondhi Limthong-kul.
...
He explained that all the rumours had originated from "crooked friends" and by the time he realised the damage they had done it had been too late. However, he declined to name these so-called friends, just saying that he had met an old friend from the Armed Forces' Preparatory School when he became a member of the Council for National Security. Believing that this friend shared his philosophy on protecting the country, he welcomed the man into his circle, only to find out that this "friend" was involved with spurious projects concerning TOT and AOT.

"I learned about this when a respected person called to say this guy was not as good as I thought and that he was involved in shady deals. I was shocked. I thought he was doing things for the country. I called him in to talk with the [two state enterprises'] boards, and then I told him to leave," Saprang said.

He added that this friend had negotiated "tea money" from King Power International in exchange for settling a dispute with AOT and had also forged a partnership with some former TOT staff members to get bribes from telecom companies.

Aside from the ex-military friend, Saprang said he had been treated badly by another fair-weather friend.

When asked if he would sort things out with these friends, Saprang said: "Never! I was stupid to listen to the bastards."

After spending a year at TOT and AOT, the general admitted that he had been more comfortable at TOT because it was not involved with politics and its projects were on a smaller scale. This explains why there is little progress at AOT, he said.

Saprang also showed no fear of possible revenge from those who suffered from the 2006 coup. "If I had been afraid, I would not have done it."
...
When asked if he would stop using the word "warrior" in his speeches, he responded: "I am a warrior, and I will use it. How could I say anything else?"

COMMENT: I assume hero and warrior are from the same Thai word, วีรบุรุษ. On his military friend, I would guess it refers to Colonel Natee Sukonrat based on the Manager article below. I would take an educated guess that his "fair-weathered friend" is Sondhi L. A summary of The Manager's stories is below:

Saprang is criticised as AOT's profit fell by 90% and part of the the reason was a 50% or so increase in maintenance charges. I actually wonder whether the dispute with King Power and the need to reopen Don Muang to please the Air Force were more relevant factors. There are also comparisons to the budget in 2006 and how it has increased - umm having two airports does this. I doubt it was Sondhi L's intention, but this makes the Thaksin appointed AOT sound quite good.

There is some nonsensical story about a management/services contract for running the hotels where it was found the contract was not void and so Saprang signed the cheque. The Manager's AOT source seemed unhappy that there would not further investigations - the percentage of the management fee was stated higher than the market rate although anyone dealing with the Thai government where you might not be paid for a year or you have to suddenly incur many other expenses because of the whim of any official would charge higher than a private sector rate.

COMMENT: Part of the TOT information below is interesting, but there is nothing from the AOT information.

A senior labour union official from the TOT states we have "information and documents" which show wrongdoing by Gen. Saprang and the Board a they breached an Act and cause public companies to benefit. Authorities are investigating the TOT Board which Gen. Saprang was Chairman and his partner, Colonel Natee Sukonrat were on.

The TOT labour official says their behaviour was 'very suspicious' and everything was classified and acted like it was their own company. What is being investigated is a 975 million baht broadband project for "national security". Fort Corporation won an bid for 850 million baht as the specifications were set so only one company could win.

Gen. Saprang also sold out the nation by giving a 3G telecoms contract to the "old power" (ie. Thaksin) albeit to AIS [sold to the Singaporeans 2 years ago].

Saprang is criticised by the Labour Union for his lack of ability in advancing the company. Says he damaged TOT over access charges by DTAC. Being sued by Samart over a dealing. That a 850 million baht contract won a bid.

There is talk that in order to pass the bid, it was necessary for certification to be provided by Cisco which Col. Natee was able to control the bid process. Some members of TOT's board knew this. Fort Corporation had to buy 200 million baht of Cisco goods from Advanced Information Technology owned by Mr Siripong Untonphan (นายศิริพงศ์ อุ่นทรพันธ์ ). The Office of Auditor-General has already TOT by letter on September 28, 2007 for further information about this.

The Acting Manager Director of TOT responded on November 27, 2007 that they were necessary, urgent projects to expand fast internet access and would result in a large amount of extra money for TOT.

[An explanation is given on how the bidding was fixed and how conditions were changed]

600 million baht was needed to pay military equipment, but the project was cancelled and where did this money asks a source who worked closely with Gen. Saprang.

Details of two other projects are given. The first for "Metro LAN" worth 32o million baht. The other one is for 323 million baht. Lead to Cisco components being used.

On why Cisco, it is because Steven Kalayamitr [Saprang relative ?] is a CEO of ATOS Origins and Advance Information Technology is also a Cisco distributor. In total 688 million baht was given to ATOS as other companies couldn't compete as fixed so only Cisco products would be used.

A 3G contract was signed with AIS and AIS would be able to make lots of money.

COMMENT: ... blah blah connection with Thaksin blah blah. The problem is that TOT shouldn't let private companies used the network/technology when it could do it itself and create great great benefits for the company. We all know how good TOT and CAT are at running mobile phone services.

TOT rules were changed to allow Col. Natee, only 40ish and with no private business experience onto the TOT Board.

COMMENT: Gen. Saprang seems to confirm there were problems so then, who was responsible? Will investigating be constituted as "revenge" by Samak? The TOT-ATOS connection seems worthy of investigation, but I hope they drop the other issues as it is the normal red herring rubbish.

Does the hero still have the strength to carry on? Maybe he does as he had a meeting with Samak today.

The Nation reports:

Public Health Minister Chaiya Sasomsap Chaovarat Chanweerakul on Monday defended a decision to appoint a bully son of the Interior Minister as an aide in his ministry.

Interior Minister Chalerm Yoobamrung's son Wan is slated to become the assistant secretary to Deputy Interior Minister Chaovarat Chanweerakul. The appointment will be formalised in tomorrow's Cabinet meeting.

"In the past, society saw this boy in a scary way but I see him as a well-mannered and polite boy," Chaiya said.

He compared Wan to Ong Kuliman, a notorious bandit in the Buddhist scriptures who reformed and reached enlightenment.

He said he would designate Wan as a presenter in the awareness campaign against drinking and smoking, praising him as role model who has turned to public service after involving in pub brawls.

COMMENT: Ummm... I don't think this is a good idea. Isn't this putting the fox in charge of the hen house? As I have said before the Chalerm children are almost universally despised in Thailand, except by a small group in Thonburi. The politics of this issue is just well, frankly stupid and no good can come of it - well I suppose except if Wanchalerm shows himself to be a model citizen.

The following tables have been adopted from the IDSW website - based on figures from Prince of Songkhla University for violence in the Deep South in 2007:



COMMENT: Attacking people on roads is so much easier. They just sit and wait.



NOTE: The death toll in the above figures is about 25% lower than other comparable figures by Dr. Srisompob himself or government figures. I can only conclude it is how they collect their figures from hospitals and other sources.

COMMENT: Satul/Satun is always an interesting province. It is 70% Muslim and historically it has been one of the provinces seen by the terrorists as part of "Patani", but there is no violence. Thomas Parks of Johns Hopkins has given a presentation (PDF) and notes the following reasons:

1. Satun’s Unique Characteristics

• Lack of Malay identity
• Thai Fluency
• Geographic Isolation
• Muslims-Buddhist Relations

2. Historical Factors

• Benign neglect of the Thai Government
• Satun Muslim elites cooperate with Government
• Vulnerable existence in peripheral region
• Lack of alternative Malay history

KEY: Y= Yala, P=Pattani, N=Narathiwat, and S=Songkhla.




KEY: Y= Yala, P=Pattani, N=Narathiwat, and S=Songkhla.

COMMENT:You can see great disparities in the death toll in the districuts above. The top 5 have very high yearly death tolls per 100,000, but it gets worse in some sub-districts where the monthly death toll is 17 or 18 persons per month. At 18 per month, this makes a yearly death toll per 100,000 of 216.

By way of comparison, Singapore has a yearly death toll per 100,000 of .49, Australia 1.28, UK 2.03, US 5.9, Thailand 8.47 (pre-insurgency figures), and Jamaica 49 (SOURCE).

I am somewhat reluctant to post figures from Iraq as everyone disputes the figures. The Iraq Body Count lists the following figures for all of 2007:*

1. Diyala, at 255 violent civilian deaths per 100,000 inhabitants (up 29% from 197/100k in 2006)
2. Baghdad, at 164/100k (down 39% from 267/100k)
3. Anbar, at 122/100k (up 61% from 76/100k) 4
4. Salah al-Din, at 120/100k (up 26% from 95/100k)
5. Ninewa, at 100/100k (up 143% from 41/100k)

COMMENT: So even taking into account the figures are about 25% down on other figures published elsewhere, the homicide per 100,000 persons in some sub-districts is in excess of some parts in Iraq and that is not including the recent drop off in violence in Iraq. It shows you how deadly the insurgency in Thailand is.

btw, more figures to come when I have time to create charts.

*Read the Iraq Body Count's explanation of their figures which are above Iraqi government figures, but also read other criticisms of IBC figures for undereporting the death toll figures earlier on in the violence. With those disclaimers mentioned, people can make up their own minds from a google search so please don't rehash debates on the number of people killed.

It has been said that Thaksin will return to Thailand "within days", but it has been said that he will only return for a short period of time to present himself at Court and then return back overseas, but we still don't have a date. Thaksin is a graduate of Montfort College in Chiang Mai and they hold their annual alumni gathering at the beginning of March. Thaksin has typically attended and has given a large amount of money to the school.

There are a number of pre-alumni rehearsals in February and the date of the gathering is usually already known by now. However, this year, no date has yet to be announced and no explanation has been given as to the delay. Speculation from Montford alumni is no date can be set as Thaksin will be attending, but they don't know the date he will return. I don't imagine they would be doing this on a whim so I thought I would pass it on.

UPDATE: The Nation reports that Gen. Anupong will attend now and only ACM Chalit and Gen. Boonsrang are the only ones who won't be attending.

Bangkok Post reports:

Prime minister Samak Sundaravej will begin his duties as defence minister for the first time tomorrow.

He is expected to start off the morning by discussing various problems with the ministry staff. Mr Samak will also assess the southern conflict and lay down measures to deal with the violence.

But it seems he will be spurned by many senior military officials tomorrow.

Army commander-in-chief Gen Anupong Paojinda will not be there to greet Mr Samak due to "a prior commitment."

Reports are also rife that the former chief of the Council for National Security Gen Chalit Phukphasuk will not be present either, but he has pledged to send a representative to greet Mr Samak at the defence ministry.

Meanwhile, Supreme commander Gen Boonsrang Niampradit is expected to visit his military counterpart in Qatar today and will therefore not be able to give Mr Samak a warm welcome.

COMMENT: Just a coincidence? Well not according to Matichon:

The Air Force spokesman said that the Head of Air Force, ACM Chalit Phukphasuk, is unable to meet with Samak as he is going to Sweden to sign the 19 billion baht Gripen plane deal [BP: See more on the trip here]. His deputy will fill in on the meeting with Samak.

Supreme commander Gen Boonsrang stated, in an interview, that the work environment of the new government seems to want to remove the CNS and Surayud government programs. He stated that as it is a democracy everyone can start to do this, but it doesn't mean it can be done. It must meet with the approval of the majority of the population. Reasons needs to be given. He hopes it will be like that.

He further states that the military can work with the Surayud government. "If we don't like, we need to leave... if we are a player in the lakorn [story/play] we need to follow the story". If we don't we should leave the military. The duty of soldiers is clear, soldiers have no duty to work in politics". Soldiers look at the nation as their principle concern.

The Defence Ministry will hold a welcome for Samak on February 11, but Gen. Boonsrang leaves for Qatar on February 10

COMMENT: Maybe just a coincidence, but they should reschedule until all the senior military officials are available.

Bangkok Post reports:

The policy of the new government on trying to solve the violence in the South will remain the same as what the previous government had undertaken, Foreign Minister Noppadon Pattama said Saturday.

However, operations against the militants operating in the three troubled southern provinces – Pattani, Yala and Narathiwat – will become more intensive, said Mr. Noppadon.

He said he planned to travel to Kuala Lumpur soon to discuss with Malaysian government and seek cooperation from Malaysian authorities in solving the problems of violence in the deep South.

The Malaysian government has considered the problem a vital issue as it has said Thailand's security keeps Malaysia safe, Mr. Noppadon said.

Some 2,800 people have been killed by militants in the deep South after renewed violence broke out in early January 2004.

Meanwhile, Suwit Khunkitti, deputy prime minister and industry minister, said his Puea Pandin Party would propose measures for solving the unrest in the restive South as part of the government's policy, scheduled to be presented to members of the House of Representatives on February 18.

Mr. Suwit said reconciliation measure, implemented by the previous military-installed government of Gen. Surayud Chulanont aimed at ending the almost daily violence in the region, would continue to be used by the current government.

Bangkok Post reports:

Mr Suvit, in his capacity as leader of the Puea Pandin party, said he presented the panel with the party's guidelines on solving the southern insurgency.

He said policies of a single party should not take centre stage in the formulation of a government platform. The policies of all parties should be integrated, he said.

Mr Suvit said policy on the South should be made concrete and practical with local people offered a chance to play a bigger role in suggesting ways to end the strife.

If counter-insurgency measures implemented by previous governments proved to have merit, they should be continued, he added.

COMMENT: Thailand does need to continue a cooperative bilateral relationship with Malaysia. I think some period of discussion is required so the new government can implement a single and coherent policy which is not subject to quick change.

Talk is one thing, but what the government actually does is another.

The Bangkok Post reports:

Prime Minister's Office Minister Jakrapob Penkair will establish government committees over the next two months to check the impartiality of news coverage by the state media. Mr Jakrapob said members of the committees must be knowledgeable in media affairs, free of political and business interests, and be visionary.

He did not say how many committees there would be although each would study one state media outlet category. For example, panels would be responsible for studying outlets grouped as digital broadcast media or community radio.

''And I will supervise them myself,'' Mr Jakrapob said of the committees.

The minister insisted he was not out to control the media.

The panels may base their studies on the findings of the media reform committee of the previous government chaired by Dr Niran Pithakwatchara.

Mr Jakrapob said he was disappointed that some mainstream media outlets had reported biased news favouring those who had been in power over the past two years.

The panels' focus would include the Public Relations Department (PRD) and Mcot Plc.

People, disenchanted by unbalanced reports by state media, have opted for alternative news channels such as the internet, he said.

A study panel would also look at the programming content of the Thai Public Broadcasting Service (TPBS), the station which took over the broadcasting slot from the defunct TITV. It will start providing news services from Feb 15.

''I'm only satisfied with its name because there's a nice ring to it,'' Mr Jakrapob said.

However, he was concerned about the legality of the recruitment of staff and executives of the public TV station.

Mr Jakrapob said he had nothing in mind regarding any changes to the TPBS law. But he would keep his options open.

Observers are worried that the station's ability to serve the public may be undermined by political interference.

Meanwhile, the Democrat party has warned Mr Jakrapob to keep his hands off the TPBS.

Democrat deputy spokesman Apichart Sakdiset said the station must be free of any form of government control because it is a public broadcaster.

The funds for the station's operations would come mainly from excise taxes on alcohol and cigarettes.

Mr Apichart said it was a point of concern when Mr Jakrapob suggested that people call the TPBS by the original name of TITV _ iTV.

He said iTV had lost its media independence when it was taken over by Shin Corp, which used to belong to the family of ousted prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra.

He said as minister, Mr Jakrapob had the power to improve the management of state-run media. However, the minister must be careful not to exert influence in a way that trampled on media freedoms safeguarded by the constitution.He challenged Mr Jakrapob to name state channels which he thought were biased or took sides with certain parties.

COMMENT: First, does Apichart think the TV media were impartial when Thaksin was in government? No, as the Democrats launched a constitutional challenge against Thaksin saying he interfered in the media - part of the reason was Thaksin taking over iTV which is odd as it was the Democrat government which changed the rules specifically to allow Shin to buy a large stake in iTV. Perhaps, Jakrapob was referring to the TITV decision not to air an interview with Thaksin, not because it was not deemed newsworthy, but because it was too sensitive. There was widespread censorship by the military government. Channel 11 has always been a propaganda agent for all governments. There is also no reason for the military to own a TV Channel. So what is the problem of trying to reform it?

Second, odd he singles out Jakrapob for wanting to change the name as the article quotes Jakrapob as saying the opposite.

Third, when Apichart says free of government control, who will select the Board? Surayud's government installed two people who have long records of being anti-Thaksin so should one not be concerned on the station's content? I don't remember the Democrat outrage then.

Note: Jakrapob has been critical of Thaksin's relationship with the media. See his statements here. Key excerpt:

he media are now held hostage to the manipulation of Thaksin. Thaksin employs sophisticated spin tactics to weed out discontent and to shape public opinion.

Furthermore, he has centralized the government’s public affairs funds so that he can more effectively monitor and control public relations. What is more alarming, however, is that interference is no longer restricted to state-owned media. Even journalists of privately owned print media are feeling pressure from their proprietors and editors.

The Bangkok Post's headline is "PM cool to fast return of Thaksin". The first paragraph states:

Prime Minister Samak Sundaravej indicated yesterday that there was no real need for deposed prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra to return to Thailand earlier than originally planned.

COMMENT: Obviously, this is clear, Samak doesn't think Thaksin should return earlier as PPP sources say he will, but Samak actually says nothing of the sort as the rest of the article states:

''I think the political situation has returned to normalcy. The entire world has congratulated us on this. They are happy for us.

''So, I will not discuss [about Mr Thaksin's return]. Let the matter take its course,'' Mr Samak said when asked if the present situation was conducive to Mr Thaksin's return from self-imposed exile.

The comment was deemed slightly out of character for Mr Samak who is known to sympathise with the former prime minister who is facing abuse of power and corruption charges.

Mr Samak insisted his administration would not provide special treatment for the ousted prime minister.

''I see him as an ordinary Thai who has the right to come back to fight the charges [against him]. He will be under police protection and the cabinet ministers will not interfere,'' said Mr Samak.

He also lashed out at Mr Thaksin's critics who suggested the ousted prime minister's premature return would stir up chaos.

Mr Samak's remarks came in the wake of reports that Mr Thaksin may return to the country sooner than expected.

Thai Rath reports that Samak was asked that many Ministers thought appropriate that Thaksin should return quicker as political situation has calmed down. He said this was not true and Noppadol, the Foreign Minister, had only mentioned about Thaksin getting back his diplomatic passport when asked about it. When asked for about his opinion on Thaksin's return he gives a vague answer and says that no need to do anything as Thaksin is a normal Thai who wants to return to fight a court case, the police will look after his safety if necessary and the Cabinet is uninvolved. When ask if Thakin's quick return might cause political problems as some like him and others don't. Samak said that this shouldn't be like this. If so, it is not just/fair, if he returns to go to court and if people shouldn't use their personal hate to judge him.

COMMENT: So Samak not offering a personal opinion on Thaksin's return means he doesn't see a real need for Thaksin Shinawatra to return earlier than originally planned? Massive jump in logic there particularly as he defends Thaksin in having a right to return.

I should also note, according to Thai Rath quoting a PPP source, that the reports on Thaksin's early return is for a short return to face court for 7 days and then to go back overseas again. One assumes he can under his bail conditions.

As you know already, 111 former Thai Rak Thai executives have been banned from holding certain political posts for 5 years. An amnesty has been floated, but new PM Samak has thrown cold water on the idea that an amnesty will happen soon. The question is, what will some of those 111 do?

Thai Rath's political analysis today provides an answer by saying that some of them will be given important posts on the boards of state enterprises as these are not "political positions" and this not in breach of the law. The Bangkok Post reported (cache) today that senior CNS staff who were appointed to top positions at state enterprises have either resigned or have stated they are about to resign, but doesn't state who will replace them. This paves the way for those like Sudarat, Newin and others to take up positions on state enterprises.

The Nation's editorial:

Former close associates of Thaksin and key Thai Rak Thai executives barred from political activity after the party was dissolved by the Constitution Tribunal, were given prominent Cabinet positions. The fact that no high-calibre outsiders with proven achievements wanted to be part of Samak's Cabinet speaks volumes about public perception of its credibility. It remains to be seen whether Samak and his Cabinet will be able to overcome their credibility problem.

Thitinan in the Post:

Almost all of the leading policy-makers from the Thaksin era are snagged by the TRT's dissolution and consequent five-year ban from politics. In an effort to prevent conflicts of interest and cronyism, the new Constitution and related laws also contain safeguards that have discouraged policy experts to enter cabinet, such as lengthy intervals between public service and private sector re-entry.

As a result, Mr Samak will have a ''B Team'' at his disposal, while new faces shy away and Mr Thaksin and other ''A Team'' members continue to look for ways to re-enter the fray.

COMMENT: Actually, it seems that Surapong and Mingkwan will have about 5 or 6 top advisors as Thanong stated today:

It seems that Thanong Bidaya, the former finance minister, will be behind the scenes to help both of them coordinate economic policy management.

If you look at Surapong's team of economic advisers, you'll realise quickly that the balance of power has tilted heavily toward him. Apart from Thanong, his advisers include heavyweights such as Olarn Chaipravat, Pansak Winyaratn, Nibhat Bhukkanasut and Supavud Saicheua. Practically all of them served as economic advisers to Thaksin during his reign between 2001 and 2006. Surapong is to be groomed and protected.

COMMENT: This is well-respected bunch of advisors - Supavud is the Managing Director and Head of Research of Phatra Securities Company Limited. I imagine the advisors can will be acting as facto Ministers leaving Mingkwan and Surapong to explain and sell what they do to do the public. Both of them are good at that, but we will have to see how this relationship works. There is a massive weight of expectations that things will get better and the knives will be out if they don't.

btw, will The Nation consider this arrangement to be a breach of the spirit of the law? I imagine this will be how things play out in the future unless the law is changed.

Thitinan also sees the end of hte BOT Governor:

Fresh from election victory, the economic policy team will feel emboldened by their mandate and beholden to voter expectations to take the reins not just of fiscal policy but also monetary policy. Tensions between Dr Surapong and BoT Governor Tarisa Wattanagase can be expected. Measures to ease the baht's rise in appeasement of exporters and other vested interests are likely to come under consideration. Exchange rate interference was a hallmark of Mr Thaksin's era. Mrs Tarisa's early indication of a firm monetary policy stance in the face of the government's fiscal stimulus and rising consumer prices, reveals her integrity and vigilance, but it will also put her position at risk. Unless she becomes answerable to government policy, her eventual replacement may well be on the cards.

COMMENT: I agree and have stated this previously. She will be the scapegoat for the capital controls.

After a couple of days of pushing the story of a rift between Thaksin and Samak, finally someone at The Nation opens their eyes and in an editorial too:

Already Samak's attempt to improve the public image of his government is apparent. Speculation about a rift with Thaksin has been played up in recent days based on accounts from the PPP, the military and Samak's own public statements. But such rumours must be taken with a pinch of salt.

When Samak was first appointed to head the PPP, he admitted to being Thaksin's political nominee. Now he has changed tack, and even members of the military top brass who were part of the Council for National Security that staged the September 2006 coup to topple Thaksin have said they trust Samak as a good politician and capable defence minister. It must be pointed out that Samak, the PPP and military could all be motivated by a possible gain in political capital. Samak naturally wants to improve his credibility. The humbled military wants to stay on good terms with the new government.

Thaksin suffers virtually nothing as the result of Samak's supposed declaration of independence; he can continue to pull strings from behind the scenes. The deposed prime minister - who cannot expect an early amnesty anyway, given the fact he is wanted by the courts to stand trial on corruption charges - can at least gain some more public sympathy. Such speculation seems designed to cater to the wishful thinking of people who want to see Thaksin suffer. But if lessons can be learned from past experience, people must remember that spin-doctoring and manipulation of people's expectations have always been Thaksin's strong suit.

It was brave of Samak to tell the public that he intends to give amnesty to the 111 Thai Rak Thai executives, including Thaksin. This would allow them to become active players in politics again, possibly in two years' time.

COMMENT: Given I have been saying the same thing for the last couple of days, I can hardly disagree. It was enough to garner Samak some positive press coverage over the last couple of days. Can someone remind me who the opposition leader is again? Haven't heard from him lately. Samak is smart enough to control the news cycle. Now, he just needs to control the country.

btw, I am not so sure any amnesty would include any new offences. He also has to be found guilty of something first! My bet is on a suspended sentence and a large fine. There will be no jail time.

Part 1 is here. Part 2 below:

Sompat Kaewpichit: Deputy Agriculture Minister

Sompat, 46, has a degree in political science from Thammasat University and an MBA in management from the US.

He entered politics under the Chart Thai banner and won in three elections.

Sompat, who served secretary to the agriculture minister in 1998, was chosen to become deputy agriculture minister after Kamol Jiraphanwanitch decided not to take the position due to possible violation of the conflict of interest law.

COMMENT: Has political experience and experience in the area. I will give him a 7.

Sanan Kachornprasart: Deputy Prime Minister

Sanan decided to leave the Mahachon Party for Chart Thai a few months before the December 23 election.

His heyday was when he was secretarygeneral of the Democrat Party in the 1990s. He played a key role in coordinating with other political factions to back Democrat leader Chuan Leekpai to become the prime minister for two terms.

In 1997, after Chavalit Yongchaiyudh resigned following the economic crisis, Sanan succeeded in lobbying 12 MPs of the Prachakorn Thai Party under Samak Sundaravej to switch sides to support Chuan to be the new premier.

However, Sanan was banned from assuming political posts for five years after the Constitution Court in 2000 found him guilty of hiding his assets. He quit the posts of interior minister and the party's secretarygeneral.

COMMENT: This is a bit of deadwood position. No idea what he will be doing so can't rank him.

btw, I wonder if samak has forgiven him. They seemed buddy-buddy the other day.

Suwit Khunkitti: Deputy Prime Minister and Industry Minister

Suwit is a former minister and executive of the disbanded Thai Rak Thai (TRT) Party. He was not among the banned TRT executives because he quit the post in 2005, after he resigned as the information and communications technology minister, due to health reasons.

In mid-2007, following the coup of September 19, 2006, Suwit joined banned TRT member Surakiart Sathirathai to form the Puea Pandin Party. The new political group, allegedly having close ties with the coupmakers, aimed to undermine the stronghold of the People Power Party under deposed premier Thaksin Shinawatra's shadow in the North and Northeast.

But the party won only 24 seats. Moreover, Suwit failed to win a seat in his hometown of Khon Kaen. He decided to join the PPP-led coalition as the only way to get into government.

COMMENT: From memory, he has been a Minister multiple times in multiple ministries. He is smooth and articulate. I will give him a 7.

Uraiwan Thienthong: Labour Minister

Uraiwan is a former labour and culture minister in the government of deposed premier Thaksin Shinawatra. She is the wife of influential Snoh Thienthong, leader of the Pracharaj Party.

She is recognised as a nominee of Snoh, who did not want to take the post himself after he had a row with Thaksin in the now disbanded Thai Rak Thai Party.

COMMENT: All I will say is a glad she isn't Culture Minister again. Well, she has had the position before and I am not so sure she will have much to do so a 6.

Banyin Tangphakorn: Deputy Commerce Minister

A close aide to Somsak Thepsuthin and deputy leader for the Matchima Thipataya Party, Banyin Tangphakorn served in the police force before entering politics in 2001 as a Thai Rak Thai member.

He won in Nakhon Sawan during the 2001 elections and again in 2005.

Banyin won the post of deputy commerce minister by pure luck this time because the main contender Sunthorn Wilawan, another Matchima Thaipataya party member, ended up being issued a red card.

Banyin, 46, completed his master's degree in Business Administration from Naresuan University.

COMMENT: Some experience, but unlikely to help Mingkwan much. I will give him a 5.

Man Pattanotai: Information and Communication Technology Minister

The deputy Puea Pan Din Party leader rose to the position with the support of the party's senior advisor Vattana Asavahem of whom Man has been a longtime close aid.

Man is 67-years-old and graduated in law at Thammasat University. He also gained an MA in International Relations and an PhD in Political Science from the USA. He has many years of political experience having served as a Samutprakarn MP four times.

COMMENT: A bit overqualified. But a number of legal issues have arisen in this portfolio in recent so his law degree should serve him well. I give him a 7.

Anusorn Wongwan: Culture Minister

Phrae MP Anusorn , 56, has served as a deputy minister for industry, interior and labour.

He is a son of the late Samakkhi Tham Party (Unity Party) leader Narong Wongwan.

Anusorn earned a master's degree in engineering in the US in 1974.

COMMENT: Simply for the fact that recent Culture Ministers have been women who seem to have gone on moral crusades. He will probably be bored by the position which is good and might not do anything. So a 7.

Virun Techapaibul: Deputy Commerce Minister

Virun, 65, earned a business administration degree from Hawthorn University, USA, and a master degree on corporate finance from Sasin Graduate School.

Born into an old established family, Virun started his career as chairman and director of companies run by the family. His high point was being president of the World Trade Centre, the developer of World Trade Centre which was later sold to Central Group due to huge losses. He was also a director of the State Railways of Thailand in 2003.

Virun joined politics in 1991 when he emerged as an MP before becoming a senator in 1992.

From 1997-2000, he joined several House committees dealing with economic issues including trade and the special economic zone in the South. In 2001, he was the advisor to then PM's Office Minister Krasae Chanawong and two years later advisor to then Finance Minister Varathep Ratanakorn.

COMMENT: Sounds impressive. An 8.

Sahat Banditkul: Deputy Prime Minister

The 57-year-old former deputy Bangkok governor is a close relative of Prime Minister Samak Sundaravej's wife, Khunying Surat.

Sahat has served as an adviser to Samak since he was transport minister in a Prem government. Samak always brought Sahat into any ministry he headed, and when he rose to become Bangkok governor, Sahat was made first deputy governor.

COMMENT: Samak's aide really so doesn't need a ranking.

Sithichai Kowsurat: Deputy Interior minister

Graduated with bachelor degree from Ramkhamhaeng University, Sithichait, 48, was in local politics being Ubon Ratchathani provincial councilor before becoming Ubon Ratchathani MP in 1995. Sithichai is the brain child of Preecha Laohapongchana, one of Puea Pandin party leaders, who is among 111 Thai Rak Thai Party executives banned from politics.

Sithichai was assistant secretary to industry minister and finance minister. He is a key suspect in the case that the People Power Party's political registrar was accused of falsifying his name to apply as PPP member. If investigators find grounds, the party could be dissolved.

COMMENT: Why not make him as a Deputy Industry or Deputy Finance Minister? Some political experience although never seems to have gotten anywhere so a 5.

Anurak Jureemas: Deputy Transport Minister

Former Roi Et MP for several times and deputy Chart Thai party leader. He is a close aide of Chart Thai' leader Banharn Silapaarcha. He served as minister because of Banharn.

In the Samak cabinet under quota of Chart Thai, Anurak was expected to become a minister definitely.

The 47-year-old used to be deputy Industry minister, deputy Agriculture minister, Social Development and Human Security minister and Culture minister.

Anurak completed a bachelor degree in Law from Ramkhamhaeng University.

COMMENT: Another person in the wrong position. Why not back as one of those deputies? He is only there so Banharn has someone to call to keep the money for roads flowing to Suphan. I would say a 6 given his political experience.

Chaiya Sasomsap: Public Health Minister

Now 55, he was MP since 1995 and ever took deputy Transport minister in 2001. Newin Chidchob has backed his ministerial.

His family is known as Nakhon Pathom's godfather because the Sasomsap family members are politicians and ruled the election's Nakhom Pathom seats for a long time.

COMMENT: Seems underqualified for the area which needs to someone with significant experience. A 4.

Boonlue Prasertsopha: Education Minister

Aged 40 and a twotime MP of Ratchaburi province. He was awarded an outstanding MP by the parliament for having never failed to attend a house session for a period of four years.

This caught the eyes of Thaksin and Boonlue was promoted to assistant secretary to the Interior Minister.

Boonlue graduated from Mahidhol University with a masters degree in Appropriate technology for Resources Development. Before entering politics he was a journalist for Khao Sod and Baan Muang newspapers.

COMMENT: Seems dedicated with attention to detail, but isn't Somchai the Education Minister? Maybe needs a little bit more experience so only a 5.

Somsak Prissanananthakul: Agriculture Minister

Somsak, 57, and righthand man of Chart Thai Party leader Banharn Silapaarcha.

Chart Thai Party deputy leader Somsak Prissanananthakul received a Bachelor's Degree from Ramkhamhaeng University's Faculty of Political Sciences and Master Degree from Thammasat University's Faculty of Political Sciences. He had been an MP of Ang Thong Province under the banner of Chart Thai Party for eight terms.

In 1995, Banharn appointed him to the post of government spokesman, the job that catapulted him into the media spotlight.

During the Chuan 2 administration, Somsak was appointed education minister in 1999 and rose to become the first deputy House speaker in 2001. He made his name by carrying out his role with neutrality.

A highly-trusted aide of Banharn, Somsak can speak on behalf of Banharn on every occasion whenever the party or Banharn himself is hit by adverse publicity.

COMMENT: I detect the writer is a fan of Banharn, but his experience gives him a 7.

Pradit Pattaraprasit: Deputy Finance Minister,

Pradit, 53 was in the hotel and kitchenware business before joining the Democrat Party.

Then Democrat Party secretary-general Sanan Kachornprasart persuaded him to run as Phichit MP candidate under the banner of the Democrat Party in 1995, which he won and again in the following year. He was appointed chairman for the House committee on sports.

In 1997, when former prime minister General Chavalit Yongchaiyudh stepped down and the Democrats led the coalition government, Pradit was appointed deputy transport minister.

In 1999, when Sanan was banned from politics for five years for declaring false assets to the National Counter Corruption Commission, Pradit was appointed as the party caretaker secretary-general. Sanan tried to angle Pradit into his place but failed because former Democrat Party leader Chuan Leekpai appointed former interior ministry permanent secretary Aant Anantakul to the post.

In 2005, the Democrats saw a change of the party management, Banyat Bantadtan was voted as the new party leader and Pradit was appointed the party secretarygeneral. He came up with then "hot" debt moratorium policy under the name "Itaen Plee Cheep" to compete with the Thai Rak Thai Party in Isaan.

After the September 2007 coup, Pradit made headlines again after the left the Democrats in the middle of election campaign and established a new political group Ruam Jai Thai which later merged with Suwat Liptapanlop's group and established the Ruam Jai Thai Chart Pattana Party to compete in the December 23 election. Pradit became the party secretary-general.

COMMENT: Based on his business and political experience, I will him a 8 - I can't blame him for the failed 2005 General Election policies, that rests with Banyat and twits who put him in the position.

Weerasak Kowsurat: Tourism and Sports Minister

Weerasak, 43, he was regarded as the person who helped upgrade the Chart Thai Party's image to be more modern, with his master's law degree from Harvard Law School in the US. Chart Thai had always been looked local to the public.

Weerasak has taken over the responsibility of the party's protocol and legal affairs and not shy in offering his vision.

In 19951996 when Banharn was appointed PM, Weerasak was made deputy PM secretary-general and in 2002-2003, was appointed advisor to the social development and human security minister during Thaksin I government.

COMMENT: He is the future of Chat Thai and from what I have seen of him in the past a 7. Perhaps, he needs to sort out TAT.

There is a lot of experience here, but it just seems that, as usual, positions have been divided up without thought on that this person might be better suited elsewhere.

Junta head/CNS chairman ACM Chalit Pukbhasuk states:

"I hope people understand the CNS was not trying to grab power. We have done our best, but the way things turned out did not live up to our expectations. We cannot blame anyone but ourselves,"

COMMENT: This, in essence, is what makes a new coup even harder to stage now. The military have been politically weakened by the coup although militarily, they have gote new toys and Samak is not predicted to take them away.

I previously called Chalerm's children "political toxic waste", they are universally despised throughout Thailand. Chalerm has been unapologetic in the past about his children, but has changed his tune today:

Interior minister Chalerm Yubamroong has made a public apology, mostly on behalf of two of his rebellious sons who have frequently made the headlines for being on the wrong side of the law.

“I’d like to apologise to everyone for the troubles that I and my family members have caused in the past,” he said.

He then affirmed that none of his offspring will be asked to help at the interior ministry to make sure that no problems arise.

COMMENT: Spoken like a true politician. Actually, his fate is in his children's hands because if they cause any trouble he will have to go.

The Nation reports:

A leading human rights organization said Thursday that it was deeply concerned with a recent statement from police chief Pol General Seriphisut Temiyavej, who threatened to take legal action against anyone he claims is filing false complaints against police officers.

Seriphusut's statement was made light of a growing number of people who have been stepping forward to accuse the police of abuse and corruption following the arrest of Pol Captain Nat Chonnithiwanit and seven other members of the 41st Border Patrol Police (BPP) unit in Bangkok on January 25.

The officers were arrested for serious offenses committed over the past three years. The charge included criminal conspiracy, armed robbery, forced intrusion, threatening others with weapons, detaining others, and abducting minors under the age of 15.

Human Rights Watch's Asia director, Brad Adam, said the arrest revealed a chronic failure on the part of the police force and raised the question of accountability.

"The arrest of Police Captain Nat reveals shocking details of systematic police brutality, corruption and abuse of power in anti-drugs operations," Adam said. "This is not just a problem of a few rogue officers; there has been a chronic failure to ensure oversight and accountability for the police."

Moreover, said Adam, "Thailand's national police commissioner-general should be encouraging victims to come forward, not threatening them with legal action. Seriphisut's threats against victims of police abuse further fuel this vicious cycle of abuses and impunity."

To date, 61 people have filed formal complaints with the Justice Ministry alleging that they or their family members were abducted and tortured by members of the BPP under Captain Nat to extract confessions for the possession and trafficking of methamphetamines.

Victims alleged that they were electrocuted, suffocated with plastic bags, and severely beaten by BPP members. Many also claim they were forced to pay bribes in order to be released or to have lesser charges filed against them.

Seriphisut stated that he did not believe that the numbers of victims in this case could be as many as 50 or 60 people.

COMMENT: Brad Adams response is over the top to accuse Seripisut of threatening "victims" Isn't it a crime also to make a false complaint against a government official? Should Seriphisut turn a blind eye to false complaints (by false, I don't mean simply unproven complaints but complaints which are demonstrably and knowingly false)? I think he needs to be careful what he says, but it is not unheard of some people to lie to the police. People are, in essence, being offered a get out of jail freecard so it is not unfathomable to think that some people who are guilty will claim they are innocent. Every case should by the gang should be re-investigated and unless there is independent evidence of a suspect's guilt, those jailed should be presumed innocent pending a possible retrial/acquittal.

I should note that Seriphisut is a Surayud government appointee and was chosen as he was seen as not favourable towards Thaksin. By the standards of the Thai police, I don't think he has done a bad job in this case and from talking to people, he is very popular. There is no evidence he has somehow tried to impend the investigation, and in fact fired has already dismissed at least one of the superior police officers. A number have been arrested and the arrest totals keep increasing. Yes, the whole case is extremely disturbing, but I am not naive enough to think this kind of think has not been happening for decades. At least in this case, the police have been reasonably upfront about things and haven't tried to bury things.

*I should note that the "police" part of Border Patrol Police is somewhat misleading. They are really a paramilitary organisation with much closer links to the military than the police. Here is the Library of Congress page on them. Key excerpt:

Developed in the 1950s with assistance from the United States Central Intelligence Agency, the paramilitary Border Patrol Police (BPP) has remained the country's most effective internal security force. Although technically part of the TNPD, the BPP has always enjoyed a great deal of basic autonomy within the national headquarters as well as in its multifaceted field operations. Because the royal family was a principal patron of the organization, the BPP developed the esprit de corps of an elite unit. This traditional relationship benefited both the palace and its paramilitary protectors. At the same time, the BPP retained direct links with the larger Royal Thai Army--a relationship that afforded it an additional degree of political strength. Most BPP commanders were former army officers whose military ties were of considerable value in BPP operations.

COMMENT: Also see here. I think they should be disbanded. Let immigration deal with border issues and the police deal with law enforcement. Historically, they have also been responsible for some of the worst excesses over the years.

The Nation reports:

Prime Minister Samak Sundaravej says he intends to stay in office for four years and will only seek amnesty for the 111 former executives of Thai Rak Thai party during the last three months of his term.

"The Constitution has stated that the government's term is four years, so I would like to keep the government going for four years. I think I can do it. And I will only work on the amnesty law in the last three months of my term," he said.

His comments signalled he was willing to go ahead and clash with ousted prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra, who reportedly favoured Samak's government to stay for a year at most to accomplish the task of granting amnesty to the banned executives before dissolving Parliament.

Thaksin had brought in Samak to lead People Power Party, widely regarded as a reincarnation of Thai Rak Thai.

Thaksin has hoped the PPP-led coalition would serve a brief term because its main task was to secure his return to politics.

COMMENT: The Nation continues to see evidence of a conflict. It can only be because they were so convinced that an amnesty was coming quickly and Thaksin would return to politics, but as I have blogged before it shouldn't be a priority of the new government. Shock, horror, The Nation has been proven wrong so to explain away why, we are told of a Thaksin-Samak clash. I will say it again Thaksin is not returning to politics quickly. An amnesty will be passed, but in a couple of years. Apart from rumors and innuendo there is scant evidence of Thaksin's return to politics - return in the sense of becoming an MP or PM and not playing a behind the scenes role.

UPDATE: See the comments for more on Mingkwan and

Samak is on the record as calling the new Cabinet a "bit ugly", The Nation calls it "despicable" and that we have been turned into "second-class citizens". Well, does The Nation's hyperbole fit? Here is, ironically courtesy of The Nation, a profile of each new member of Cabinet with my grade out of 10 (based on a range of factors - I grade harshly so don't expect high numbers for everyone):

Somchai Wongsawat : Deputy Prime Minister and Education Minister

All his life served as judge but his name involved in politics because of he is husband of Yaowapa, younger sister of ousted prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra.

He decided quitted from Justice Ministry permanent secretary after the coup.

The brother-in-law of Thaksin Shinawatra entered to People Power party as deputy leader. He is said that a nominee of Thaksin and might take the premiership if Samak Sundaravej could not run the job. Yet, he always denied.

Earlier, he will receive the justice minister but it afraid of a criticism that he will cling to power because the ministry is involving the Thaksin cases.

He, therefore, takes the Education minister.

Somchai, 60, graduated in law from Thammasat University and a master degree in Public Administration from National Institute of Development Administration (NIDA).

COMMENT: Even The Nation has acknowledged, he was capable. I don't think he should have been Justice Minister, despite him being qualified, as it really is not a good look. Obviously, he is very close to Thaksin, but he also has the qualifications and work experience. Hopefully, this signals an increased focus on education under a Samak government. He doesn't have any ministerial experience although he was the Permanent Secretary and knows how to deal with the bureaucracy. I give him a 7.

Poonpirom Litapanlop: Energy Minister

Wife of seasoned politician Suwat Litapanlop who has been banned from politics for five years. Holds a master degree in chemistry from Kasetsart University and has served with the Army where she served as a lecturer until her early retirement in which she achieved the rank of Lieutenant General. She was also an advisor to the National Defence College.

Poonpirom entered politics in 2006 and a friend describes her as an energy conservationist nut.

COMMENT: Masters Degree in Science and knows something about energy so not too bad. No real political experience and is really only there because of her husband. I give her a 5.

Anongwan Thepsuthin: Natural Resources and Environment Minister

Anongwan Thepsuthin, 49, is the wife of former Wang Nam Yom faction leader Somsak Thepsuthin.

She was believed to be Somsak's "nominee" after he was banned from politics with the dissolution of Thai Rak Thai (TRT) party.

Wang Nam Yom members including Anongwan left TRT after the coup. They later formed the Matchima Thipataya party to run in the last election.

After serving as a teacher and education ministry official for 20 years, Anongwan entered politics in 2001 by running under the TRT banner in her hometown of Sukhothai and won the poll. She also ran for election in 2005 and was again victorious.

She had to guide Matchima because her husband and founder of the party, could not. She was promoted to be its secretary general to contest the December 23 election.

COMMENT: Might she have been a better pick of Education? Ok, she is the wife of a Minister, but has been in politics since 2001 herself. Then again, she was foolish enough to through in her lot with Prachai. No apparent knowledge of the portfolio so a 3. She is one of these last minute changes.

Chaovarat Chanweerakul: Deputy Health Minister

He is father or Anuthin Chanweerakul, one of 111 Thai Rak Thai Party executives who has been banned from politics. That is why Aunthin sends his father to become deputy health minister, the position he had helmed earlier.

However, Chaovarat is not new to politics. He once served as deputy finance minister in Chavalit government under the quota of Chart Pattana Party.

COMMENT: His son is a former TRT executive,* but he was a Deputy Minister himself although serving as a Deputy Finance Minister during the Chavalit government is well hardly something you would want to put on your CV. Appears to have some political experience. It is only a Deputy position so a 5 too.

Wutthipong Chaisang: Science Minister

Wutthipong, 49, Chachoengsao MP, the younger brother of Chaturon Chaisang, the former Thai Rak Thai party caretaker who was banned from politics for five years. Chaturon pushed for his brother to get his first ministerial post.

Wutthipong entered politics by becoming a Constitution drafter representing Chachoengsao and joined the Constitution drafting panel in 1997. He fully entered politics after winning an MP seat in Chachoengsao under the banner of Thai Rak Thai Party. He was made secretary to the deputy industry minister.

COMMENT: His being in politics for 10 years overcomes his relations with Chaturon - ok, I am a bit of Chaturon fan myself. Doesn't appear to have a Science background. Seems more suited for Industry or Finance - apparently is good with budgetary matters. I only give him a 4.

Ranongrak Suwanchawee: Deputy Finance Minister

Ranongrak was elected as a senator from Nakhon Ratchasima but was not endorsed because of the coup.

Her husband Pairoj - a veteran politician and executive of the now defunct Thai Rak Thai Party who was banned from politics for five years - sent her and their son to contest the Korat seats under the Puea Pandin Party. Both won.

Ranongrak entered the Samak Cabinet as a deputy finance minister with the help of her husband Pairoj and the cooperation of Baan Rim Nam faction leader Suchart Tancharoen.

Now 51, she graduated in nursing from Mahidol University.

COMMENT: Hmm. She is one of the Ministers criticised by Samak. Maybe if it was Deputy Health Minister, I would be less harsh, but I can't her more than a 2.

Suphol Fongngam: Deputy Interior Minister

Suphol was a member of the inner circle of Wang Nam Yen faction leader Snoh Thienthong before move to become a close aide of Newin Chidchob, whose backing helped him secure a place in the Samak Cabinet.

Suphol has served several terms as an MP from Ubon Ratchathani but his new job as deputy interior minister will be his first time in the Cabinet.

The 45-year-old has bachelor's degree in law from Sripatum University and a master's degree in social environmental development from the National Institute of Development Administration.

COMMENT: Has political experience and somewhat related educational qualifications. Only Deputy position so a 6.

Teerachai Saenkaew: Deputy Agriculture Minister

A member of the Wang Nam Yom faction and an outspoken MP in ousted premier Thaksin Shinawatra's now defunct Thai Rak Thai party, Teerachai would defend his party leader against criticism from opponents. A Thaksin loyalist, he stayed with the Thai Rak Thai when his faction leader, Somsak Thepsuthin, jumped party last year's coup.

The 51-year-old politician from Udon Thani switched allegiance to the Newin group, a decision that paid off because he got the job of deputy agriculture minister with Newin's backing.

He has a master's degree in social administration from Thammasat University.

COMMENT: Not enough info to offer a real grade and as only a Deputy I give him a 4

Songsak Thongsri: Deputy Transport Minister

Fifty-year-old Songsak was a member of the Buriram province MP clique that is led by Newin Chidchob. He has been an MP six times and is now representing Newin, in the new cabinet.

Newin was banned from politics for five years by the juntaappointed Constitution Tribunal along with 110 other former Thai Rak Thai party executives.

Songsak holds a master degree in political science from Eastern Asia University and was assistant secretary to Minister of Finance and Minister of Education in the past.

COMMENT: Has political experience, but his educational qualifications don't really fit. Only a Deputy position so a 5.

Pongsakorn Annopporn: Deputy Education Minister

Pongsakorn, 47, was a Chart Pattana MP for Khon Kaen three times before moving to the Thai Rak Thai Party. He did not contest the December 23 election, nominating his wife Duangkae to run for the Khon Kaen seat instead.

Even though he is not an MP, he was backed to become deputy education minister by banned former Thai Rak Thai member Newin Chidchob.

Pongsakorn has a master's degree in political science from Ramkhamhaeng University.

COMMENT: Some political experience, only a Deputy - relevant that the actual Minister is highly rated too so a 5.

Santi Promphat: Transport Minister

Aged 56, Santi has been on the shortlist for the post since early January and was the only one who was not dropped from the list for the ministry.

He first entered politics a decade ago as MP for Petchaboon province under the then New Aspiration Party and is one of the major financiers for the party leader Chaovalit Yongchaiyuth.

Santi was advisor to the Interior and Transport Minister. As a major real estate tycoon with connections to Thaksin Shinawatra, he was entrusted by Thaksin due to his generous financial contribution and was given the responsibility to oversee MPs in the upper central region and some of the northeastern provinces.

Between 2001 to 2005, he failed to secure a ministerial post but the 19 September 2006 coup eventually gave him the opportunity with higher profile politicians from the TRT being banned from politics.

COMMENT: Some political experience, previously been an advisor in the area, but mostly a reward. I don't consider Transport that important as he won't be micromanaging so a 5.

Sutha Chansaeng: Social Development and Human Security Minister

Sutha, 48, is a former Bangkok MP and close aide to Sudarat Keyuraphan. He has followed Sudarat since the Palang Dhamma Party, and she has backed him politically as deputy Bangkok group leader and secretarygeneral to the Finance minister.

Sutha was one of nine PPP candidates to win in Bangkok in the December 23 election, so it is no surprise Sudarat has endorsed him to take the Social Development and Human Security Ministry in order to maintain her support base in the capital.

COMMENT: Not enough to make a decision and to be honest I don't really consider this an influential Cabinet position.

Mingkwan Saengsuwan: Deputy Premier and Commerce Minister,

Mingkwan is expected to execute what could be billed as an "improved" version of Thaksinstyled populist policies.

A former director of the Mass Communication Organisation

of Thailand and senior executive of Toyota Thailand, Mingkwan has a daunting task on his hands in managing the upward pressure on prices of necessity goods under the commerce ministry's supervision.

COMMENT: Not that political experience, but very well-qualified. Easily one of the better Ministers. An 8.

Chalerm Yoobumrung: Interior Minister

Chalerm has been a candidate for interior minister since he joined the People Power Party. The deal was allegedly closed after Chalerm flew to England to meet with deposed premier Thaksin Shinawatra and his wife Pojaman in Manchester in mid-2007.

Chalerm has been an ally of Thaksin since the ousted premier entered politics. His heyday was during the government of the late Prime Minister Chatchai Choonhavan. He was a minister and Chatchai's close aide who challenged defiant commanders of the armed forces.

COMMENT: Solid political and ministerial experience which I think is important for the Interior ministry position. He has enough clout to get things done. As long as his children learn to stay at home a 6.

Choosak Sirinin: PM's Office Minister

A legal adviser to the defunct Thai Rak Thai Party and deposed prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra, Choosak Sirinin was one of the people who stood up to fight against the party's dissolution. Even though Choosak seemed to keep a low profile, he proved to be reliable enough to be made legal adviser to the People Power Party and is now serving as the party's deputy secretarygeneral.

Before taking over as PM's office minister, Choosak was expected to become House Speaker, but instead he handed the post over to Yongyuth Tiyapairat.

Choosak, 59, earned a master's degree in Comparative Law from Southern Methodist University in Dallas, US.

COMMENT: Previously party's deputy secretary-general and given the position (really an advisory type position) can help with legal advice. A 6 and a half.

Sompong Amornwiwat: Justice Minister

A severaltime MP from Chiang Mai, Sompong has previously headed several ministries, including labour, industry and the PM's Office Ministry.

After the Thai Rak Thai Party was dissolved and its 111 executives banned from politics last May, the 66-year-old played the role of "big brother" by chairing a panel to screen new executives for the ad hoc Thai Rak Thai Group.

Sompong did not play a significant role in the party while Thaksin Shinawatra was in power, which turned out to be good for him because he was not banned from politics like the party's executives.

After the People Power Party was established as a base for former Thai Rak Thai members, Sompong volunteered to become deputy party leader and was temporarily appointed chairman of the government whip.

COMMENT: Ministerial and political experience so a 7. [UPDATE: See Awzar Thi's comments on the Amornwiwat family here]

Noppadon Pattama: Foreign Minister

More recently the Shinawatra family's legal adviser, Noppadon Pattama joined the Thai Rak Thai Party because the then Natural Resources and Environment minister Yongyuth Tiyapairat invited him to reform the law during the Thaksin administration.

Noppadon was assistant minister to Yongyuth for 89 days before the coup that ousted Thaksin.

Soon afterwards, he resurfaced to represent the Shinawatra clan. He became famous for using the phrase: "As the Shinawatra family's legal adviser" in published statements to defend Thaksin when the ex-PM was accused of wrongdoing.

A prominent case was when the Assets Examination Committee (AEC) moved to freeze Thaksin's assets worth Bt7.3 billion. He lashed out at the AEC every day.

He earned a master's degree in law at Thammasat Universityand a master's degree in bar council at Lincoln's Inn, Oxford University.

He was once appointed sec?retary to former Democrat leader Chuan Leekpai when Chuan was opposition leader.

COMMENT: He was also secretary to Surin Pitsuwan when he was Foreign Minister for a couple of years in the late 90s. He has impeccable academic qualifications and is very intelligent. Law degree is relevant for foreign affairs. I would say a 7 simply as he is good at public speaking and his legal career could help.

Surapong Suebwonglee: Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister

Surapong is a cofounder of the defunct Thai Rak Thai Party and a member of ousted premier Thaksin Shinawatra's inner circle.

He was with Thaksin in New York on September 19, 2006, when the coup occurred, but kept a low profile after returning to Thailand the following month.

Surapong had appeared set to return to the private sector, but saw an opportunity to continue his political career after the People Power Party was formed. A former government spokesman and minister, he was made party secretary general.

Surapong was expected to take an important job if the party won the election, however, no one expected he would be made head of the Samak government's economic team.

Surapong was involved in implementation of the Bt30 national health scheme, and initially served as deputy Public Health Minister. But a conflict with key TRT members prompted Thaksin to make him Information and Communications Technology (ICT) minister.

After failing to secure a Cabinet seat in the Thaksin II administration, he decided to leave politics to help run a slimming centre business with his wife.

However, he returned to politics as government spokesman before Thaksin's government was overthrown by the coup.

Now 50, Surapong has a medical degree from Mahidol University. He is one of The "Tula (October) people" - a student involved in the October 1973 who had to flee to the jun?gle after the crackdown in October 1976.

He said recently he would phase out his business career in order to take up a fulltime role in the new government.

COMMENT: He is very articulate, but lacks substantial economic qualifications. Not critical as they have already lined up a string off advisors. Has good political experience with implementing programs and can market the plans. I would say a 7. If it was in any other ministerial position, he would get an 8 (except public health where given he is a medical doctor a 9).

Jakrapob Penkair: PM's Office Minister and Government Spokesman

Jakrapob Penkair is better known as a celebrity, especially after his work as a presenter for the Apec summit hosted in Thailand in 2003.

His performance during Apec impressed thenprime minister Thaksin Shinawatra, who asked Jakrapob to serve as a government spokesperson.

He has since developed a reputation for being outspoken, mainly because he always stood up to speak to journalists, sometimes even on behalf of other government officials.

At one point, Thaksin even said his spokesman had spoken out of turn. This comment came after Jakrapob publicly declared that the European Union had agreed to restore preferential tariffs for Thai shrimp exports in exchange for the purchase of an Airbus aircraft.

Jakrapob ran in the 20052006 elections but failed. However, Thaksin appointed him as deputy secretary-general to prime minister in 2006.

When the Thai Rak Thai Party was dissolved, he and other loyal aides of Thaksin set up a cableTV station called Public Television (PTV) to broadcast their sentiment against the junta.

Later, PTV members rallied against the Council for National Security (CNS), and created the Democracy Alliance Against Dictatorship group.

Jakrapob and other anticoup leaders were detained for two weeks over charges of leading an unauthorised rally outside the residence of Privy Council Gen Prem Tinsulanonda, which erupted into a riot last July.

Jakrapob, 41, has a bachelor's degree in political science from Chulalongkorn University, and a master's from John Hopkins University in the US.

After completing his education, he started his career with the Charoen Pokphand (CP) group, before resigning to serve as an official diplomat and then a television host.

COMMENT: Has owned a public relations firm, been government spokesman before so is well-qualified. He is a little too excitable so only a 7.

The non-PPP representatives to come...

Quite average really. PPP are really missing the experienced executives who were banned.

*Corrected. Previously, stated "Son of former executive".

It is now official:

His Majesty the King endorsed new cabinet led by Prime Minister Samak Sundaravej on Wednesday afternoon.

Mr Samak then led the 35 new ministers for the sworn-in ceremony held at the Chitralada Palace.

New cabinet members are as followed:

Prime Minister: Samak Sundaravej, also Defence Minister

Deputy Prime Minister: Somchai Wongsawat, also Education Minister

Deputy Prime Minister: Surapong Suebwonglee, also Finance Minister

Deputy Prime Minister: Mingkwan Saengsuwan, also Commerce Minister

Deputy Prime Minister: Suvit Khunkitti, also Industry Minister

Deputy Prime Minister: Sanan Kachornprasart

Deputy Prime Minister: Sahas Banditkul

Prime Minister's Office Minister: Jakrapob Penkair

Prime Minister's Office Minister: Chusak Sirinil

Interior Minister: Chalerm Yubumroong

Deputy Interior Minister: Supol Fong-ngarm

Deputy Interior Minister: Sitthichai Kowasurat

Deputy Finance Minister: Pradit Pattaraprasit

Deputy Finance Minister: Ranongrak Suwanchawee

Deputy Commerce Minister: Wirun Techapaiboon

Deputy Commerce Minister: Banyin Tungpakorn

Transport Minister: Santi Promphan

Deputy Transport Minister: Songsak Thongsri

Deputy Transport Minister: Anurak Jureemart

Agriculture and Cooperative Minister: Somsak Prisnananthakul

Deputy Agriculture and Cooperative Minister: Sompat Kaewpichit

Deputy Agriculture and Cooperative Minister: Thirachai Sankaew

Energy Minister: Poonpirom Liptapanlop

Tourism and Sports Minister: Weerasak Kowsurat

Information and Communications Technology Minister: Man Pattanothai

Science and Technology Minister: Wutthipong Chaisaeng

Justice Minister: Sompong Amornwiwat

Foreign Minister: Noppadon Pattama

Labour Minister: Uraiwan Thienthong

Natural Resources and Environment Minister: Anongwan Thepsuthin

Social Development and Human Security Minister: Sutha Chansaeng

Culture Minister: Anusorn Wongwan

Deputy Education Minister: Boonlue Prasertsopha

Deputy Education Minister: Pongsakorn Annopporn

Public Health Minister: Chaiya Sasomsup

Deputy Public Health Minister: Chawarat Charnweerakul

COMMENT: A few well-known names there, but lacking in direct experience in many areas. Everything will turn on the economy so Dr. Surapong and Mingkwan have a big job ahead of them. I am really not sure Samak will last as Defence Minister and I am sure it will upset a certain Privy Councilor. More comments soon.

UPDATE: Thanks to Jon in the comments, a TAT press release states:

"To edit and improve information about Thai tourism on www.wikipedia.org
and www.WIKITravel.org to ensure it is accurate and up-to-date. Students and faculty members at Chulalongkorn University and Rangsit University will be responsible for editing and improving the English version of these online encyclopedias."

COMMENT: It is even worse than I imagined. Will we have a course for students entitled "Public Relations in the Internet Era : Editing Wikipedia for Your Country"? How will they be assessed? Precisely which students will be fluent enough in English to accurately re-write sections of Wikipedia? Yes, there are some, certainly more at Chula than Rangsit, but they are going to be editing and rewriting articles, one needs a reasonable standard of English. For the minority of students whose English is good enough, perhaps they should be engaged in more academic pursuits, like research or writing a thesis.

NOTE: The wording of the press release doesn't suggest they are hiring suitability qualified people to do the work - yes, that is bad enough in itself, but coopting students from two universities to do so is even worse.

Coopting faculty too? It is sad that Thai academia have been reduced to the level of editing Wikipedia for the government. I am sorry, this is simply shameless, but they are clueless enough to even announce it to the public. Wikipedia editors should be alert from any edits from IP addresses from CU and RU.

What will become articles on certain books about the monarchy?

The idea of people being paid/compelled as part of their study/work to edit Wikipedia is a debacle. If they are unhappy with the content, set up their own site.

A number of the TAT proposals are excellent (see the article for them), but this final one sounds concerning:

The Wiki Mission for Thailand will attempt to involve travellers in improving and editing all of the information about Thailand on Wikipedia.org and on Wikitravel.org.

According to the official press release announcing the five part plan, the "WIKI Mission for Thailand Tourism Project (will) improve and edit all the information about Thailand on www.WIKIPEDIA.org (all true facts) and www.WIKITravel.org (the travel guide) targeting digital citizen, to make them have a better understanding of Thailand by uploading complete, accurate and up-to-date information on to the websites in order to promote tourism in Thailand."

TAT will be the first government agency in the world to set out a plan to try to change Wikipedia, which is set up in such a way to resist such a campaign. It could be interesting to watch the battle, if any develops, between the TAT and the world's online community.

COMMENT: Fortunately, one can see who edits Wikipedia articles these days. Are TAT trying to encourage people to edit the pages or will they be editing the pages themselves by hiring people to do so. What will they edit articles about violence in the Deep South or any article which has something negative about Thailand as they are not "accurate"?

The term "all true facts" sounds disconcerting as it easily become all true facts which don't cast a negative light on Thailand. Perhaps, TAT should clarify what they are up to.

The Bangkok Post reports (cache):

Prime Minister Samak Sundaravej yesterday backed a call for the selective disarming of civilians and progressive disarming of junior military officers and policemen in the far South, a proposal which has drawn heavy flak from experts and security officials.

Mr Samak voiced his support for the proposal at a meeting with representatives of the Central Islamic Committee of Thailand yesterday.

The prime minister conceded he was not an expert on the insurgency issue but would act in his concurrent role as defence minister in assigning the authorities, including the army, to implement the idea.

Central to the proposal, initiated by committee vice chairman Banjong Somanee, is the disarming of all civilians in the strife-torn border provinces of Yala, Pattani, Narathiwat and parts of Songkhla, and telling rebels to lay down their weapons. They would be given money for the weapons they hand in.

Community leaders would play a role in keeping civilians disarmed.

Once all civilians and militants are disarmed, it would be illegal for junior security personnel to carry weapons, Mr Samak said.

Military and police offficers ranking lower than lieutenant would be all disarmed, a process which would take about three months.

The Banjong proposal also recommends that those who defy the order to disarm be executed. Mr Samak, however, found the proposed punishment too extreme. The maximum punishment should be life imprisonment, he said.

''I agree with this idea. It's easy enough to understand. I'll inform the military of it. This shouldn't be difficult,'' Mr Samak told the committee at the People Power party (PPP) headquarters.

But Mr Samak insisted army chief Gen Anupong Paojinda would have the final say on the issue.

''I'll talk to Gen Anupong, and whatever he considers to be appropriate I will agree to,'' he said.

Mr Samak said the proposal would take effect soon, after it has been adjusted.

Southern violence escalated in early 2004 during the Thaksin Shinawatra administration. The situation has worsened with daily attacks against local residents, policemen, soldiers, teachers and monks. More than 2,000 people have been killed.

The Banjong proposal, however, was opposed by a fellow member of the Islamic committee Suriya Panjor.

Talking on the sidelines of the meeting with the Bangkok Post, Mr Suriya said the plan may be impractical.

''It would be very difficult to put this thought into practice. This is not the right time to be focusing on it,'' said Mr Suriya, also a former member of the National Legislative Assembly's panel studying and investigating southern violence.

The government should tackle injustices _ blamed for perpetuating the insurgency _ suffered by local people.

He put forth the idea of rooting out injustice at the meeting but it was ignored. However, Mr Samak said: ''Keeping accusing one another of injustice will never bring an end to the story. We have to say the [injustice] issue is over, period.''

Mr Samak also told the group he expected ''the wound to be healed in three or four years.''

But the military also disagreed with Mr Samak's proposal.

''It's impossible to disarm civilians, who include state officials. Southern insurgents will not lay down their weapons even if all civilians are disarmed,'' said a commander of a military unit.

The officer said civilians who possess weapons include teachers, local leaders and village defence volunteers.

Army spokesman Col Acra Tiproch insisted local residents had the right to carry firearms in self-defence.

''If we can order the rain to stop, only then can we tell the people not to put out their umbrellas,'' he said.

''My question in return is whether insurgents are willing to lay down their weapons if local residents are disarmed.

Local residents have the right to protect themselves,'' said the spokesman.

The Democrats respond with Secretary-General (where is Suthep??) stating:

"The prime minister should clearly outline his policies on the south and avoid making public, his approval of any of the policies proposed to him,” Nipon said.

He added: “It is vital for any prime minister to be careful with what he says before the public. When Mr Samak said he agreed to plans to disarm government officials in the south, he should make it clear how the government intends to continue providing security for locals there and who will ensure the safety of the government officials.”

COMMENT: Don't you just love how the suggested punishment will be execution? Wouldn't it be ironic if it was by a firing squad?

This seems to be implementing and taking further the NRC recommendation for an "unarmed peace force".* I am a little surprised, given the fanfare of the NRC's recommendations and the criticisms of Thaksin for not implementing the recommendations, Samak is now being criticised for considering implementing one of the recommendations. It is a case you are dammed if you do and dammed if you don't.

On Samak's response, he needs to learn how to better respond to such suggestions as you can't create policy in front of the media. A 'we will consider the proposal' is sufficient. He got it right when he said he would talk to Gen. Anupong and do whatever he agreed with.

On disarming civilians/military, I don't imagine it passing muster with Gen. Anupong as there would be a mutiny by the military - as seen in the article already. The thing which is needed is not disarming the police/military in an area of widespread violence, but better trained officials and better intelligence. At the moment, they are sitting ducks and then their weapons are stolen by the terrorists when attacked. If the military/police are disarmed, they will just stay even further in the barracks/police station. Who will provide security then? At the moment, they conduct patrols in large numbers and are heavily armed, can you imagine how afraid they will be to go out if they are not armed at all? The law will only be arbitrarily enforced anyway as you can't disarm the police. Does anyone think the terrorists are suddenly going to "play fair"? If they suddenly lay down their weapons, wouldn't they just give up fighting too?

*In an article, entitled "Disarm tropps, NRC says":

The National Reconciliation Commission (NRC) yesterday proposed to set up a special "unarmed army" and engage in dialogue with militants to end violence in the restive South.
...
The NRC has proposed that the military establish an unarmed "peace force" unit dubbed Santisena ("army of peace") comprising civilians, members of the military and the police to keep the existing conflict from spiralling into more violence.
...
Anand said he was not that optimistic about a quick solution after the report was submitted to the caretaker government, but hoped it would generate a real desire for a peaceful approach. "Violence begets violence, and it is a vicious circle. Stop that and we will see light at the end of the tunnel," he said.

Strait Times:

One of the commission's recommendations is that an 'unarmed army' should be set up, consisting of civilians, police and army officers, to be deployed in situations such as the attack on the teachers.

Michael Connors:

The NRC proposal to deploy unarmed military units is an attractive one, given that violence breeds violence. The recommendation flows from a recognition that in the past the presence of weapons has inflamed tense stand-off situations. The problem remains of how such unarmed forces would protect themselves in the event of an attack.

btw, The 4 main NRC recommendations were:

1. Making Yawi a second language 2. Set up unarmed, joint peacekeeping forces 3. Allow Sharia Law and 4. Support the negotiations and dialogues.

COMMENT: There has been support and criticism of the NRC recommendations (ICG also seem to support it). Personally, they should have been more careful on (1) as once Prem had his say this was never going to happen. I believe than an indigenous minority group should be able to use their own language when interacting with the government and support (1). For (2), see above. For (3), well in civil matters (marriage, divorce, and inheritance) where both sides assent, I don't have a problem, but this is already the case. For (4), I am mixed. There will be always be negotiations and dialogue, but first the government needs to find someone to talk with.

btw, full report in English is available here (PDF)

Tulsie on the alleged split between Thaksin and Samak:

Rumours that Thaksin and Samak could be on a collision course over the latter's new-found aspiration to make a name for himself and shake off the "nominee" label cannot be taken light either.
...
But whatever he really is, Samak is more fascinating in political speculation than in ideological debate. He is now said to be aiming for a long stay, thus reportedly enraging Thaksin, who obviously wanted the government's priority to be a no-nonsense legislative and constitutional push to clear his legal cases so he can stage a complete comeback soon.

Lately, Samak has gone very quiet over his initially proclaimed agenda of clearing Thaksin's name. He could have simply been busy, but there are other signs that may be giving Thaksin sleepless nights.

The new prime minister announced Bt500 billion would be spent on mega-projects for transport and water management and has brought in long-time aide Sahas Banditkul to help in the administration, possibly as deputy prime minister. In addition, Samak has become overly anxious about the prospective government's poor image, perhaps too anxious for someone who has allegedly been told to "stay there for six months, get the job done and leave".

Today's biggest political question is: What will Thaksin do if Samak really wants to stay two or three years in office? The former's leverage had been strong before Parliament named the prime minister, but the royal command has come down and if the "nominee" wants it, he can hold the "master" to ransom.
...
Samak as a loose cannon would be a handful for Thaksin. In that scenario, the ousted leader could plot to undermine his rebellious nominee, but the cost would be massive and with unpredictable risks. A parliamentary revolt to pressure Samak would also damage the People Power Party's reputation and unity, and another landslide election victory - in the event Samak succumbed - would be anything but likely.

This may all sound a little far-fetched today, yet we have seen much already. Politics is always romantic as far as the party outside the corridors of power is concerned, but with power comes raw aspiration. The romance of the coup ended shortly and now it's the turn of "democracy" to try to produce something that isn't entirely farcical. The Thaksin-Samak clash theory may be just wishful thinking, something cooked up by their opponents, but the only way to make a conclusion is for all of us to take a three-week deep sleep. And hope for, not the best, but the sensible … when we wake up, that is.

COMMENT: PPP deny any clash between Thaksin-Samak. It is possible that Thaksin is upset at Samak, but as I said yesterday it makes little sense. I realise The Nation wants to believe the story, but seriously. Surapong himself has stated there will be amnesty anytime soon and he is seen as a loyal footsoldier to Thaksin and now Samak is suddenly holding Thaksin to "ransom". The Nation and others dream Thaksin is going to come back and become PM again and so any signs of anti-Thaksin feelings are latched upon as "good". Thaksin will not be PM within the next 5 years.

If Samak does a good job, he will stay as a PM, who else would replace him? I don't think Thaksin wants a short-term government. PPP will want the economy to improve and we are unlikely to see any greatly improved GDP figures until next year. Two years at a minimum, unless the Senate is obstructionist, I imagine the plan is that they will start looking at changing the constitution next year.

Samak seen to be independent, making his own decisions etc actually benefits him as he needs to get rid of the nominee label. As long he carries out populist policies in the "Thaksin mold", it can also benefit PPP because this going back and forth between Hong Kong or London and Bangkok isn't really a viable option for running a government on a long-term basis.

Now, just wait for anger at The Nation to set in that they were deceived into believing there was a clash between Thaksin and Samak and that it was a plot by Thaksin.

The Nation reports:

Chart Thai Party leader Banharn Silapa-archa has backed the government's plan to implement populist policies, saying they were needed to stimulate the economy.

Banharn said he had long agreed with such policies, especially those promoted during the election campaigns.

People had been complaining about their lack of income, and populist policies usually helped pour money into the "grassroots" level, which in turn gave the economy a boost, he explained.

He also blamed the previous government's lack of populist policies for the country's economic slump.

COMMENT: Argh, how things have changed.

btw, the title of the post is from a well-known statement by Nixon.

The Bangkok Post reports (cache):

The Assets Scrutiny Committee (ASC) has vowed to use its authority to take to the Supreme Court charges against the entire Thaksin Shinawatra cabinet for alleged graft in a state lottery scheme even if public prosecutors disagree with its stance on the indictment, spokesman Sak Korsaengruang said yesterday.

But the panel will follow the regular channels in another case, agreeing yesterday to recommend that the Office of the Attorney-General (OAG) file criminal and civil charges against three companies and 42 people, including five members of the Thaksin cabinet, for alleged graft in the 1.4-billion-baht rubber saplings project, he said.

The five former cabinet members are then deputy prime minister Somkid Jatusripitak, then deputy finance minister Varathep Ratanakorn, then social development and human security minister Sora-at Klinprathum, then commerce minister Adisai Bodharamik and then deputy agriculture and cooperatives minister Newin Chidchob.

The ASC initially believed that all cabinet members should be charged for their alleged roles in the rubber saplings project but its inquiry later found that only the five ministers were involved.

The ASC earlier recommended the OAG take to the Supreme Court criminal and civil charges against 47 people for misusing revenue generated by the two-and three-digit lottery project, initiated by the Thaksin government in 2003.

It also ruled that the accused initiated the scheme without authorisation and violated three monetary laws by unlawfully acquiring tax exemptions for the lottery project.

People Power party (PPP) secretary-general Surapong Suebwonglee, who is tipped to be finance minister in the new government, and Pracharaj party deputy leader Uraiwan Thienthong, expected to be labour minister, are among the 30 former cabinet members charged with wrongdoing. The others accused are board members and executives of the Government Lottery Office.

The OAG told the military-appointed ASC to re-investigate the case, saying it lacked testimonies and evidence on how the revenues were misused.

But Mr Sak said the panel believed the case was complete and so it would exercise the power given by the coup makers to take the case to court itself.

The military appointed the ASC soon after the coup on Sept 19, 2006, to investigate corruption charges against the Thaksin government, and granted it legal power to take cases to courts should the OAG disagree.

At present, the ASC is only awaiting written confirmation from the OAG on whether it is sticking to its stance. If it does, the panel will set up a team to handle court procedures which would take about two weeks, he said.

The panel will forward the other case involving the rubber saplings project to the OAG within two weeks, recommending the prosecutors indict the accused.

Mr Somkid, Mr Varathep, Mr Sora-at and Mr Adisai are charged with criminal offences for abusing their authority by allocating a sum of 1.4 billion baht from an agricultural aid committee to hire contractors to handle the project in 2003, Mr Sak said.

The four were then the board of the committee. Another 12 state officials sitting on the panel are charged with the same offences. ASC member Banjerd Singkhaneti said the law did not allow the committee members to use the money for this purpose. They also resolved to seek funding from a rubber plantation aid fund to pay back the money to the committee's office, he said.

The two decisions were made without getting final approval from authorities in charge, including the cabinet, he said.

Mr Newin is to be charged for his role in initiating and handling the project. A group of state officials setting up the project's terms of reference to allow unqualified contractors to bid for the project are also charged, said Mr Banjerd.

Three companies _ Charoen Pokphand, Ekcharoen Agricultural Co and Resort Land Co _ and their executives and representatives, were also found guilty of collusion in the bidding, he said. The ASC will recommend that the OAG demand 1.1-billion-baht group compensation to the state from all the accused, he said.

COMMENT: The saplings case seems more substantial although they don't seem to have any smoking gun that the Cabinet Ministers were involved in corruption, just they didn't have the authority to authorise the payment of money. This is really an administrative law issue.* It is the same for the lottery case although that one is even more ridiculous.

The underground lottery put tens of billions of baht of revenue into government coffers which it spent on evil things like educational scholarships. There is not a suggestion or even evidence that Thaksin or his government embezzled the money, but they didn't have the legal authority to run the lottery, hence all the money spent is illegal - more on this in my post.

The problem for the AEC is that the Thaksin government increased government revenue and then spent the money as this news report states:

The Thaksin government, with its various populist policies, was among the beneficiaries due to the direct flow of tax revenue into state coffers

COMMENT: This is what the AEC/ASC has come up.

*Hilariously, questions were raised on whether the AEC/ASC had also exceeded its powers in its investigations so the Surayud government got the NLA to pass a law to exempt the AEC/ASC from criminal or civil sanctions (i.e immunity) from their actions. Perhaps, Samak should do the same thing so as long as they didn't personally profit from their actions. If it is good for the goose it is good for the gander.

The Bangkok Post reports:

Two monitor lizards seen mating Tuesday behind the government headquarters turned into a hot news item for the national press, given the inauspiciousness of the act on the eve of the birth of the new cabinet.

The reptiles were spotted fornicating in a pond behind the Thai Kufah Building, attracting hordes of photographers and television cameramen stationed at the Government House compound in Bangkok, where the prime minister and other cabinet ministers keep their offices, the Pujadkarn online news service said.

According to Thai belief, the arrival of a monitor lizard to one's home or office augurs bad luck. Mating monitor lizards at Government House, therefore, might bode ill for the next government.

Well, that was the speculation making the rounds anyhow.

The new cabinet is to be endorsed Wednesday, according to newly elected Prime Minister Samak Sundaravej, who has spent the past week coupling together a cabinet lineup with ministers from six political parties.

COMMENT: Then again their numbers seem to be increasing:

Water monitors are still crawling around in abundance in Bangkok and in the provinces, according to Alongkorn Mahannop, a veterinarian at Chitralada Palace. Last year's survey showed there were about 200 water monitors in each district of Bangkok, he said.

Water monitors are particularly abundant in Khlong Phadung Krung Kasem, Khlong Prem Prachakorn, and in the neighbourhood of Government House, parliament, Suan Dusit and Suan Sunandha Rajabhat universities where there are extensive networks of underground drainage pipes which make ideal habitats for the creatures.

There have also been frequent reports about monitor lizard intrusions into city people's residences in recent years.

COMMENT: Who would have guessed there were so many of them in that area?

The Nation reports:

Cracks have begun to appear in the relationship between Prime Minister Samak Sundaravej and Thaksin Shinawatra, as Samak wants to have a bigger say in forming the Cabinet and hang on to his premiership over the next two to three years.

According to sources familiar with the development, Samak is now causing trouble for Thaksin because he wants to have his own way in running the government.

Shortly after his appointment as prime minister, Samak decided to reshuffle the list of Cabinet members presented to him by all six coalition partners. He found several of the candidates to be unacceptable.

His interference in the formation of the Cabinet resulted in the removal of Chai Chidchob and Srimuang Charoensiri from the list of candidates for portfolios in the Office of the Prime Minister and Energy Ministry respectively. Chai is the father of Newin Chidchob from Buri Ram.

"Samak is now causing a lot of headaches for Thaksin and Newin," said one political observer.

Political sources said Samak had reshuffled up to 12 positions in the Cabinet list presented to him.

Samak led the People Power Party, a reincarnation of Thaksin's Thai Rak Thai Party, to election victory. Thaksin is believed to have a great deal of influence in the PPP. The members of Samak's Cabinet, including Samak himself, had earlier been looked upon as simply Thaksin's nominees.

But Samak now wants to have his own way in forming the Cabinet and running the government. He gave an interview last week complaining that his Cabinet looked like "ugly ducklings".

Later he explained that he would like Wuthiphong Chaisaeng to serve as deputy finance minister rather than Ranongrat Suwanchavi, the wife of Phairoj Suwanchavi.

Samak has also brought in Sahas Banditkul, his long-time aide, to help him run the administration. Sahas is earmarked to serve as deputy prime minister.

Samak is expected to complete the Cabinet list for His Majesty's endorsement on February 6.

Another sign that reflects Samak's determination to stay in office for at least two to three years is the announcement over the weekend that his government will invest Bt500 billion in transport mega-projects and water systems.

Samak is good at managing transport projects, and Sahas would help him in this primary task.

Samak's intention to stay in office appears to run against the wishes of Thaksin, who does not mind an ugly-duckling Cabinet, according to political sources.

Sources say the ousted prime minister thinks the new government should last only for the short term - focusing on reforming the constitution or introducing amnesty legislation for the 111 former executives of the defunct Thai Rak Thai - before dissolving Parliament.

Political sources said Samak was willing to work on constitutional reform or amnesty legislation but only after he has been premier for the next two to three years - not six months.

Sources said Thaksin was so upset with Samak that he flew from Hong Kong back to London over the weekend.

Surapong Suebwonglee, who is expected to be finance minister, tried to play down the conflict in the Cabinet formation, saying there won't be any rift among Cabinet members, particularly among the deputy prime ministers.

He said nobody had any objection to the arrival of Sahas as deputy prime minister, since Sahas will help Samak in the transport sector, which is one of Samak's fortes.

COMMENT: Previously, The Nation's narrative was Samak was just a puppet of Thaksin and Thaksin controlled PPP. Now, Thaksin has been reduced to having "a great deal of influence in the PPP". Samak needs some independence and have always thought he would have it. I don't remember Thaksin micromanaging AIS so after the initial Cabinet negotiations, Samak will have certain leeway. Samak can't get anything passed without the approval of Parliament so if Thaksin was really against Samak, he won't last long. The story about Samak fooling around with the Cabinet negotiations is to give Samak some independence and make him seem like the leader. If he was viewed as a weak leader, he wouldn't last long. Now, that he is making changes to the Cabinet list, people know who is boss.

Just like the story of Samak being a Thaksin puppet, this story is also overblown. If Thaksin was so annoyed, why would he fly back to London? It just makes it difficult for all those who are unhappy to go to see him - a day trip to Hong Kong is possible, but not to London.

The Bangkok Post reports:

Insurgents detonated two bombs in the South on Monday, wounding two students and eight other people, police said.

Three policemen, and two high school students and the owner of a shop were wounded when a five-kilogramme bomb went off outside the man's shop in Yala town.

About an hour later, a second bomb exploded outside a pondo (Islamic religious school) in next-door Pattani province.

The blast wounded three women, all local government officials, and a policeman.

The Nation reports on one of the bomb in Pattani:

One person was killed and 11 other persons were injured when insurgents detonated a bomb at a pier where officials and local people were releasing fish into a canal Monday.

Mayo district chief Wirat Prasetto was one of two persons who were severely injured in the explosion at about 1:20 pm.

The fish releasing ceremony was held after the district chief and local religious leaders chaired an open ceremony of a religious boarding school for young Muslim children.

About 1,000 local people were taking part in the ceremony.

The explosion occurred while the district chief was leading local people and officials to a raft where they were supposed to release the fish into a canal in Ban Kasoh village in Tambon Kasoh of Mayo district.

NOTE: The fish-releasing ceremony is a Buddhist ceremony.

It is this Bangkok Post report which is more disturbing:

Police and soldiers are hunting for four southerners, including a man wanted for a bomb attack on Hat Yai airport, after being alerted by intelligence reports that they were planning to stage bomb attacks in Bangkok and Yala.

It is possible that Faisal Hayeesama-ae, 25, one of those being sought, may plant bombs in Bangkok this month, said a police source at the police operations command in Yala, citing an intelligence report from the army.

Faisal is a Yala native and is said to be an expert in making and planting bombs. He is wanted for the bombings at Hat Yai airport on April 3, 2005 and at the Hat Yai railway station in 2004, and is carrying a three-million-baht bounty on his head.

The source said the man has already left Yala and could be hiding in the Ramkhamhaeng area as he was a former student of Ramkhamhaeng University and has a lot of Muslim friends there.

"The military intelligence did not go into detail as to why it believed Faisal would carry out the attacks at this time. It's possible that the change in the country's political landscape and the government was tempting the rebels into staging attacks to test what stuff the new government was made of," said the source.

The other three men, also from Yala, were identified as Ismael Paju, Sobree Buenae and Korsem Toh. They too specialise in assembling bombs, according to the source.

The source said if the attacks do take place, the three are likely to launch them in Yala to prove their capabilities before replacing the two dead separatists, Fadel Jijai, 22, and Yuhan Lateh, 25, who were killed by security forces on Dec 21, in the rebel chain of command.

Yesterday, a force of 200 security officers arrested suspected militant Yakareeya Ali, 31, in Ban Toh Luebay in Sungai Kolok district of Narathiwat.

His capture came after the officers searched the village after learning that some militants who had escaped to Malaysia's Kelantan state after launching violent attacks in the South had returned home, police said.

COMMENT: In March last year, I blogged about the links between the violence in the Deep South and the Bangkok New Years 2006 bombings - including some information on the Ramkamhaeng links. A previous post here also has a mention of Faisal.

Bombings in Bangkok are certainly possible. I believe the terrorists have the capacity, it is just whether they want to devote the resources to such an attack.

The Nation reports:

A letter dated January 7 issued by the Secretariat of the Cabinet informed all provincial governors that the Cabinet had made the resolution in December for government officials to stop using private, and especially foreign, email providers to communicate official matters within one year.

Officials who are directors or in higher positions must stop using foreign email providers within three months. The letter stated the resolution was made in order to "protect official information".

Dr Sriprapha Petcha-ramesree of Mahidol Univer-sity's Human Rights Studies Programme said she was afraid the Cabinet resolution would contradict the rights and freedom principals written in the constitution.

Furthermore, email systems provided by the government's offices are not reliable and have limited capacity, she said.

Dr Thaweesak Koananta-kool, former director of the National Electronics and Computer Technology Centre, said the Cabinet resolution only applied to official matters, not private communication.

He said the Office of the Public Sector Development Commission had conducted a study last year and found that four out of every 10 government officials were using Gmail, Hotmail and Yahoo in communicating official matters.
Thaweesak said many people who use free email providers may have never read the "privacy policy" of these providers that allows the providers to read their users' emails and attached files.

For example, Gmail's privacy notice states that "Google"s computers process the information in your messages for various purposes, including formatting and displaying information to you, delivering advertisements and related links, preventing unsolicited bulk mail (spam), backing up your messages, and other purposes relating to offering you Gmail".

Thaweesak said many government officials had already violated the Office of the Prime Minister's rule on "official secrets" by using these free email providers and the Cabinet's resolution would protect the country from the risk of losing official secrets.

Dr Naruemon Thabchumpon of Chulalongkorn University's Faculty of Political Science warned the government should not have confused a technological problem with the freedom of communication.

"The order doesn't make sense. This has nothing to do with national security. If the government is worried about hackers, the ICT has to work to solve the problem," she said.

Naruemon said she had not seen the order but she would continue using foreign email providers in her work as they were more available and effective.

COMMENT: Ok, this is an area which I have some expertise so apologies if this bores everyone.

Anyone who has dealt with enough Thai government officials knows on the frequent use of free e-mail providers for sending e-mails and attachments as the government system didn't work. I am sure the NSA makes good use of this poor attitude towards communication security so there is certainly need for improvement so the idea of a new policy makes sense. The explanation about the new policy seems reasonable, but it will depend on the wording.

I would say there are three categories of information:

1. Unclassified message: If "official information" includes unclassified messages (e.g. normal correspondence sent to third parties) there is no security reason to specifically require it be sent by an official government e-mail address. Any e-mail message sent to a third party can be intercepted anyway (once it leaves the government e-mail system). This information would be subject to release under the official information act.
   
   
2. Official information not classified: Here I am referring to information which should not be publicly disclosed, but is not classified. This could include information that effects the privacy of a person or is about an official government investigation which is not subject to disclosure under law. One would imagine this would mostly be internal e-mail sent to other government officials. This should be sent on an official e-mail address although it is essential that such a system is secure otherwise it is rather pointless.
   
   
3. Classified Information: Classified messages should not be sent on a free e-mail provider. This information should only be sent on a secure government e-mail system so such messages can be encrypted to a suitable level. Simply banning foreign e-mail providers won't help if the new system is not secure and computers which send classified material have open access to the internet and staff install all kinds of spyware and software.

Can The Nation not find any academic who is willing to make a distinction about what sorts of official information there is? Instead, even thought it is limited to "official information" we have talk of freedom of communication and unconstitutionality.

I have previously posted about the Thai-Chinese government relationship after the coup and I believe that was the military government moved Thailand slightly closer to China. So it was with interest I read this Bangkok Post article (cache):

When Gen Surayud was appointed prime minister, the United States and China's ambassadors were the first to congratulate him.

Now dealing with China might be a little tricky, given that Beijing was a close friend of Mr Thaksin and has distanced itself from him during the past 14 months.

Now Beijing has to get close to his nominee administration.

When Mr Samak was endorsed as prime minister by His Majesty the King on Tuesday, US ambassador Eric John was the first to go to his house to congratulate him.

The nearly-retired Chinese ambassador, Zhang Jiuhuan, has yet to make a statement.

However, Sino-Thai relations run deep in brotherly blood. The Speaker for China's People's Assembly, U Bang Guo, has already congratulated Yongyuth Tiyapairat after he was voted in as House Speaker.

COMMENT: So no visit or even a statement by the Chinese Ambassador?

The Bangkok Post reports:

Touching on the ongoing violence in the deep South, Mr Samak said he would assign concerned officials to handle the problem.

When asked whether he would continue to employ conciliatory measures in solving the crux, as was the case with the outgoing administration of Gen. Surayud Chulanont, Mr Samak in typical style replied with a question of his own as to whether the measure had succeeded in solving the violence.

However, Mr Samak said he would first discuss ways to solve the violence in the region with senior military officers before traveling there himself.

COMMENT: I hope some in PPP are giving some thought on dealing with the violence and they choose one Government Minister who deals with the South instead of everyone having their say on what to do. I will wait to see what Samak says after talking with the military.

The Bangkok Post reports:

Thaksin Shinawatra is not back in Thailand yet, but already many of the projects he initiated when he was prime minister are taking on new life.

Several projects scrapped by the military government following the ouster of Mr Thaksin in September, 2006 are already being revived, said deputy secretary-general of the People Power party (PPP) Noppadon Pattama.

"We have completed drafting the new government's policies and up to 90 per cent are those that were scrapped after Mr Thaksin's forced departure," said Mr Noppadon. "Some of these include the Small Medium Large village fund scheme (SML), the government (two- and three-digit) lottery and the CEO governer scheme."

But it won't be all about policies championed by the now disbanded Thai Rak Thai party. PPP executives apparently plan to discuss other policies with coalition parties during talks scheduled for tomorrow.

"Our main priorities over the next two to three months include the southern violence, boosting the economy and shoring up investor confidence as well as monitoring the baht’s volatility," Noppadon said.

He also hinted that the new government may lift the 30 per cent capital reserve requirement imposed by the Bank of Thailand in December 2006.

COMMENT: The other day Dr Surapong gave some ambiguous statements about the 30% capital reserve requirement - although I heard him interviewed on Thai TV around the same time and he mentioned about ensuring confidence of foreign investors so it is unclear what signals he want to send.

Removing the reserve requirement would be a positive sign to foreign investors. Perhaps, it might be done in conjunction with the BOT lowering the interest rate or using some other method of monetary policy. I don't imagine too many scraps for the foreign business community.

The new Foreign Business Act - see Thai Crisis for more on it - is unlikely to be rolled back completely. This is not because the new government likes the amendments, but with a nationalist Senate (the NLA is the current Senate and I expect the new half-appointed Senate to be roughly similar) I don't see how they can get it through. It will only take a few nationalists to kick up a fuss, you will see stories of selling out Thailand to foreigners in the press and the Senate will step in to "save the day".

There might be some tinkering around the edges to improve things (in the eyes of the foreign business community) slightly, but that is about it. Large investments will be ok as they can always tinker with BOI rules. Basically, changing BOI rules or allowing greater flexibility isn't politically explosive enough so this is a possible avenue.

Next year, there might be some hope.

On February 1, The Nation:

Seen arriving at Samak's residence was US Ambassador Eric G John, who told reporters that he congratulated the prime minister about his election victory and the restoration of democratic rule.

"The US looks forward to working with the new Thai government as Thailand is the oldest US ally in Asia and this year will mark the 175the anniversary of bilateral ties," Ambassador John said.

On February 2, The Nation:

Seen arriving at Samak's residence was US Deputy Assistant Secretary of State Eric G John, who told reporters he had congratulated him on his election victory and the restoration of democratic rule.

John said the US was looking forward to working with the new government as Thailand was the oldest US ally in Asia and this year would mark the 175th anniversary of bilateral ties. He said he was working to restore US military assistance previously cut because of the 2006 coup.

COMMENT: Hmm. The US Embassy in Bangkok and the Thai Foreign Ministry both call Eric John the Ambassador. What inside information does The Nation have which they are not sharing over John no longer being Ambassador? Was he made persona non grata by Prem for daring to visit the enemy? Or, the more likely prospect, was it simply another error at The Nation?

btw, yes he was previously Assistant Secretary of State, but he isn't anymore.

The Manager reports:

Thirapat Sereerangsan, who was minister to the prime minister’s office, insisted the coup against Thaksin was justified.

"