Someone in parliament (Sunai, a former Democrat) has suggested that 200+ million baht was transferred to a company and this director is connected to a political party before the coup. He finally said that the money came from TPI Polene.

BP: TPI Polene? It was unclear whether this money was for the PAD protests or for that political party. The Democrats (Suthep) got up to refute the allegations.

Obviously, Prachai has already clarified he had nothing to do with this. Oh wait:

After finally losing TPI to PTT in July 2005 following nearly a decade of court battles, Prachai started funding anti-Thaksin protests led by outspoken publisher Sondhi Limthongkul. (“I helped a little bit” with funding Sondhi’s protests, Prachai said with a laugh.)

BP: How much was a little bit?

Thitinan "quotemeister" Pongsudhirak was on ThaiPBS around 9pm offering commentary on the parliamentary debate and solutions to the way out. He was critical on both sides in the parliamentary debate. Below I have summarised his views:

The political conflicts which is on the street is also in the parliament. If the government wants to find a way out it needs to be open to solutions. The opposition, including Senators, should question whether what the PAD wants is the best thing to do. Both need to join together. He doesn't like think bringing down the government is the answer. If we allow them to bring down the government, we will be like the Phillipines and Africa. If Samak resigns or dissolves parliament does not help democracy. If the UDD/DAAD don't like the next government, they can just do the same as PAD. It makes the democratic system weak. Actually, just resigning or dissolving is unlikely to be enough for PAD.

We need to establish what is the truth. PAD escalated the protests by seizing NBT and Government House. If it was another country, they would have dispersed the protesters as it is against the law. However, because of previous killings after protests (Black May, October 6), the government can't take action.

It is difficult for PAD to say that Thaksinocracy still exists. Potjaman was sentenced and her and Thaksin have had to flee. Samak has legal cases pending. There is the dissolution case against PAD.

"Poo yai" should get together to find a solution.

Criticising the government is easy to and many do it, but anyone who criticised PAD.

Abhisit has just suggested a dissolution although he concedes there is no guarantee that PAD will not stop protesting. In response, Samak rejected this solution of resigning or dissolving parliament as it won't solve the problem.

BP: I don't think that, as Thitinan says above that the dissolution will solve the problem - see this post.

Hobby in a comment said:

A reasonable compromise would be for PAD to withdraw the resignation demand, and Samak & PPP to back away from the constitutional amendment rush, and let the matter be debated in parliament and come up with proposed amendments which they agree are to be put to a public referendum after a reasonable consultative period.

BP: There is a constitutional problem - as the Constitution provides for parliament to amend the Constitution and not for a referendum - but a non-binding referendum is an option. Nevertheless, I think this is a reasonable solution although it probably won't be enough to satisfy

Guardian in an editorial:

Two years after a coup which forced Thaksin Shinawatra into exile, the same establishment forces are rattling the cage of the Thai prime minister, Samak Sundaravej - the man they accuse of being the media tycoon's proxy. As a report this week by the International Crisis Group says, this is a struggle between two deep-seated and irreconcilable forces: the older, traditional Thailand of the bureaucracy, military and monarchy, and a populist nouveau riche from the rural areas whose support Thaksin has tapped into. This particular premiership encounter appeared to be going into extra time yesterday.

The options for Samak appear to be running out fast, but he has so far resisted the temptation of imposing a state of emergency, which would allow him to put troops on to the streets. The demonstrations spread yesterday from the prime minister's residence, where thousands of anti-government protesters have been encamped for four days, to the rest of the Thai capital and across the nation. Protesters attacked the police headquarters, invaded the runways of three southern airports, and brought a third of the country's rail network to a halt.

Samak's political problems have only been compounded by the loss of three cabinet ministers and a series of legal challenges. The mass demonstrations have been organised by the People's Alliance for Democracy, whose campaigns led to the coup that ousted Thaksin. This is not as the name suggests. It is a rightwing group of businessmen, academics and activists who claim to be the defenders of the revered - but in these circumstances silent - King Bhumibol Adulyadej. The king is officially above politics, but he has intervened several times during his six decades on the throne. The challenge the opposition poses to Samak is a serious one, especially since Thaksin, who jumped bail on corruption charges, is again back in London. Samak, a 73-year-old political bruiser, should resign or call a snap election. The demonstrations, which started as a cross between a festival and a political rally, could swiftly turn turn violent.

The army - which Samak has allowed a freer hand in dealing with the insurgency by the Malay Muslim minority in the south of the country - has so far stayed out of this growing conflict. One retired general, Chamlong Srimuang, an influential former politician and army officer, said the protesters were doing nothing wrong. Samak said earlier this week that he had a sword - the riot police closing in on the prime ministerial compound - but would not use it. He must now realise that his government can not last, and call fresh elections.

Reuters has a list of different options:

SAMAK CALLS SNAP ELECTION

- Samak dissolves parliament to call a snap election in the hope it will take the wind out of the PAD's sails.

But, with Samak's People Power Party, a replacement for Thaksin's disbanded Thai Rak Thai party, almost certain to win and lead the next government, the PAD would be unlikely to give up its campaign.

Parliament will debate and probably pass a new national budget next week, replenishing government coffers for election goodies.

BP: With the greatest respect for the Guardian, but a dissolution was what Thaksin opted for in February 2006 and that didn't stop the PAD protests. It just intensified them. They don't believe in elections! You also have a certain cremation of the HM King's sister in November and HM King's birthday in December so it is difficult to see elections before then.

The Reuters article continues and lists other options:

SAMAK IMPOSES EMERGENCY RULE

- Samak declares a state of emergency to enlist the help of the military in clearing the tens of thousands of protesters from the seat of government.

Still haunted by a public backlash at their bloody crackdown on pro-democracy protests in 1992, it is far from certain that the military would follow orders.

BP: I think a state of emergency is only likely after bloodshed.

The article continues:

MILITARY LAUNCHES A COUP

- With the second anniversary of the coup against Thaksin looming on September 19, army chief Anupong Paochinda has stressed that another putsch would resolve none of Thailand's underlying political problems.

However, if tensions escalate and people get hurt or killed, the army may feel justified in intervening, citing the need for national reconciliation, and forcing the government from power.

It is far from clear what sort of government would emerge.

BP: Will Anupong want to step in again? Given the troubles faced by Gen. Sonthi will he want to? Will he get endorsement to do so given many sectors of society are so divided? The most likely post-coup government suggestion I have heard is with Samak as PM.

The article continues:

SAMAK LOSES PATIENCE, ORDERS POLICE TO SMASH PROTESTS

- Given his reputation as an instigator of a bloody crackdown on left-wing students in 1976, Samak has so far shown considerable restraint. Many wonder how long this can last.

Scores of deaths could result if riot police were sent in to storm the protest zone, where middle-aged women sit side-by-side with youths armed with stakes, golf clubs and iron bars.

Inevitable public revulsion at bloodshed would probably trigger Samak's downfall.

BP: Instigator? Ok, that aside. Despite what happened on Friday the ultimate result will be as Reuters states so hence it would seem strange they want until now. The only weapons the police have had in their possession so far are guns which fire rubber bullets and batons and allegedly tear gas as well.

The article continues:

SAMAK AGREES TO STEP DOWN

- Samak caves in and steps down along with his cabinet. It would then be up to the opposition Democrat Party to cobble together a coalition government. If it fails, elections would ensue.

BP: Democrats are said they might join with the Newin faction/Gang of Four, but PPP seems more united than ever and everyone strenuosuly defending the PM. If Newin wanted this, why has he mobilized UDD/DAAD? If anything, the PAD protests will not be popular in the Northeast as it shows the disdain the PAD protesters have for their votes and well how long would that government last?

The article continues:

PAD RUNS OUT OF MONEY AND GIVES UP

- Nobody knows who is really backing the PAD, but most analysts suspect they have deep pockets and are well connected. With Samak on the back foot, they are unlikely to give up now.

BP: They won't run out of money soon.

The article continues:

KING INTERVENES

- Regarded as semi-divine by many Thais, King Bhumibol Adulyadej carries huge informal political clout, and in six decades on the throne he has intervened in several disputes, favoring variously elected or military administrations.

Earlier this month the 80-year-old monarch delivered thinly veiled criticism of government economic policy and its conduct in a spat with the Bank of Thailand over how to tackle inflation.

So any intervention by the King would be unlikely to favor the government, even though it would be couched in nuanced terms espousing the need for national harmony and stability.

BP: I think it is a threshold question. No bloodshed and protests, if HM the King intervenes now, won't this set a expectations of a precedent? HM the King was fairly clear in 2006 on the calls to use Article 7. This time around the protest numbers are significantly lower - it seems about a quarter hence there need to do something extreme as they don't have the numbers.

The Bangkok Post:

The People's Alliance for Democracy protesters used various kinds of weapons to ward off police from entering Government House, now under their siege. The ''weapons'' ranged from liquid detergent, electric cables to sewage shaft lids.

Some proved a success in deterring police during yesterday's confrontations between officers and protesters at Makkhawan bridge and Government House.

At Gate 7 of Government House, where hundreds of police were deployed and prepared to break into the compound, PAD guards tied a long wire to the metal gate and charged it with electricity from a portable battery.

When police moved closer, they charged the electricity to generate electric sparks at the gate.

''Police were scared of the sparks and immediately backed off,'' a PAD guard said proudly.

The guard, who declined to be named, said PAD guards came up with the idea to deter police yesterday to prevent police from breaking in.

At the other side of the Government House, PAD protesters covered a section of Phitsanulok road with tarpaulins and poured liquid detergent on it to make the surface slippery.

This prevented police, who were stationed at the nearby Royal Turf Club, from crossing Chamaimaruchet bridge to Government House where tens of thousands PAD protesters have been camped since Tuesday.

Rumours about a police crackdown on the PAD had spread every day. Other protesters collected old sewage shaft lids left inside government compounds to use as shields against police batons or rubber bullets.

Police yesterday reported that various kinds of weapons _ machetes, bullets, golf clubs, iron bars, and batons _ were found at the PAD's demonstration sites.

Source: Bangkok Post

BP: They are a fan of golf clubs. The PAD guards are PAD's own private little army.

Gen. Panlop (who will take over if one of the PAD leaders is arrested and is believed to be a PAD strategist) is quoted* in Matichon as saying that you need to accept pain. It is like a boil and if we suffer the pain for months if we don't lance it. If we lance the pain is over quickly. The political situation is the same. In no country in the world does democracy come from merely asking for it/begging. It needs to come from a struggle before we get democracy. Look at Bhutan. Before they got democracy they needed a revolution and suffered great losses before the King gave in. I have been in many political parties. Those parties who are making progress now are nominees.

BP: There are a number of sensitive issues that could be discussed and the irony of one statement above is extraordinary (imagine if Thaksin had used those words!), but well such topics can be in Thailand. Bhutan's legislature has 47 seats and one party has 45 seats - a feat even Thaksin would be impressed with. It is the PAD and their elite supporters who want to trend away from elections mattering. It is like the Burmese junta argument that the people are not ready for full democracy. They don't go as far, but to achieve democracy we need to move away from a fully elected legislature (they already have achieved part of that with the Senate and have plans for the lower house)* first and then eventually one day moving towards democracy. When will that day happen? Does war equal slavery too in a PAD world?

* PAD advocate a New Politics platform of MPs being 70% apppointed and 30% elected. For more on New Politics see my posts here, here, and here.

Full quote below

“การทำทุกอย่างต้องยอมรับความเจ็บปวด เหมือนเราเป็นฝีหากเราไม่ยอมบ่ง จะต้องปล่อยให้เจ็บปวดเรื้อรัง อยู่เป็นเดือน เป็นฝี แต่ถ้าเรายอมเจ็บปวด ยอมผ่า ก็จะหายโดยเร็ว ดังนั้น สถานการณ์การเมืองขณะนี้ต้องยอมเจ็บปวด ทั้งนี้ไม่มีประเทศไหนในโลกนี้ที่ประชาธิปไตยมาจากการร้องขอ แต่ต้องมาจากการต่อสู้ทั้งนั้นถึงจะได้มาซึ่งประชาธิปไตย อย่างประเทศภูฏาน ก่อนที่จะได้ประชาธิปไตยก็เกิดการปฏิวัติ และสูญเสียไปมาก ก่อนที่กษัตริย์เขาจะยอม ผมอยู่พรรคการเมืองมาหลายพรรค และพรรคที่เดินหน้าอยู่ในขณะนี้ที่เป็นนอมินี ดังนั้นผมรู้ว่าการเข้าสู่การเมืองของเขาไม่เป็นอย่างที่เราหวัง เขาได้มาเพราะการซื้อเสียงทั้งนั้น ดังนั้นเมื่อได้มาด้วยเงิน เขาเข้ามาก็ต้องถอนทุน”พล.อ.พัลลภ กล่าว

Initially, the PAD were primarily in the grounds of Government House, but they are moving into Government House as The Nation reports:

Staff of People's Alliance for Democracy broke into the Santi Maitree and Thai Kufah buildings Saturday afternoon.

But following opposition from reporters and some demonstrators, the PAD guards blocked protesters from entering the buildings after they broke into the building.

The guards used tools to break into a door of Santi Maitree Building at 1:30 pm but they claimed they would go inside to clean the building and would not allow protesters to go inside.

They also broke into the Thai Kufah Building and told the protesters that the building would be used for holding meetings of PAD leaders.

AFP reports from one of the PAD guards they were told to do:

"Chamlong told us to clean up the mess left by police, so that PAD's five supreme leaders can use the offices inside the building during the rally," an activist told AFP.

BP: It seems they are setting up office and are in for the long haul.

The Nation reports:

Senior Democrat Party MPs visited protesters at Government House Saturday evening.

They included Trairong Suwankhiri, Alongkorn Pollabutr and Arkom Engchuan.

Matichon reports that they walked in front of the stage to loud applause and that of the MPs donated 20,000 Baht (ยังมีนางพจนารถ แก้วผลึก ส.ส.ชลบุรี ที่ร่วมบริจาคช่วยพันธมิตรเป็นเงิน 2 หมื่นบาทอีกด้วย).

BP: With Sondhi L giving tacit approval for a Democrat-led government, will we see an alliance? The Dems will have to tread warily - you can see this by Abhisit rejecting the idea of an unelected PM which the PAD support.

The Manager reports that Sondhi L had a special press conference for the foreign media last night.

Bloomberg:

`If Samak and his government resign, then you should go back to the process of electing a new prime minister,'' said Sondhi Limthongkul, the protest leader. ``And you know whoever wins the vote next time if they do not listen to the people's voice, if they continue the policies of Mr. Samak, then we will come onto the street again and again.''

The Manager also quotes Sondhi L as saying that they started protesting as PPP wanted to amend the Constitution and PAD had repeatedly warned the government about this. He also said there were unhappy over the transfer of government officials to benefit Thaksin. PPP is the nominee of TRT and therefore under the constitution it should be dissolved. Thailand is not a real democracy.

Sondhi said they were not a terrorist movement, but wanted to change to a new form of politics. This will cause political parties to longer be banks. We hope that the next government will improve things. Most people will have an increased role as elections are not the sole part of democracy. We might have other choices to make democracy more complete.

Sondhi L said that his government doesn't listen to the people like previous governments. The reason that many people have come to Government House is that they recieved news from ASTV which educates the people and is the real truth.

When asked on the difference between the arrests warrants between Thaksin and PAD leaders, he said that Thaksin was corrupt (การฉ้อราษฎร์บังหลวง), but the case against PAD leaders is political.

When asked what if in the future there was political reform and a new election what his thoughts were, he said that he had no party in mind, but the Democrats were not as bad as PPP.

Also, from the press conference courtesy of a reader:

• Sondhi L also said the reason the PAD closed down the airport is that they wanted to signal exactly what they were capable of doing. He further said that they could also get wealthy PAD followers to withdraw their money from banks simultaneously [trying to create a run on banks ?]
  
  

BP: So who will the Democrats be in coalition with? The faction of the "Thaksin crony" Newin? The government will both try to isolate and bring PAD into the process tomorrow when they debate the issue in parliament. PAD can have their supporters make their case in parliament, but then ultimately they get trapped as the coalition has the strength in numbers so this benefits the government.

btw, if elections are not the be all and end all of democracy and involvement from people is important why do PAD advocate for the New Politics platform of MPs being 70% apppointed and 30% elected? How will people be involved then and who will the 70% be accountable to? For more on New Politics see my posts here, here, and here.

UPDATE: Rewrote after the press conference.

At 10pm, the 6 coalition members held a press conference at Peninsula Hotel after a meeting today. I noted that all coalition members were in attendance with around 10 people on the stage to answer questions including Finance Minister Surapong, Deputy PM Somchai Wongsawat, Banharn, Sanan, Snoh Thiengthong et al.

Surapong spoke a meeting they had today. He says the issue of the government and the current situation will be dealt with in parliament tomorrow. All members (MPs and Senators ?) will be allowed offer solutions to solve the problems. The parliament is the best venue for talking about these issues.

In response to a question about Samak, Surapong says he is still Prime Minister. Other answers from Surapong. No talk about "national unity government". No talk about State of Emergency. In response to a question in English, Surapong says we are sure that the Prime Minister will not resign at this moment as in the last 7 months the coalition government has done many things for the benefit of the country.** On Samak's absence from the meeting, Surapong notes he had a special event to attend to [namely the audience with HM the King]. He notes that Samak will be there tomorrow. When asked about looking at other options "out of the problem" like dissolution or Samak resigning, they said they are only looking at using parliament. He further said that those other options are not necessarily definite ways out of the problem.

Banharn sounds supportive of lets talk in Parliament when answering a question.

Snoh Thienthong [Pracharaj leader] says all parties have agreed to amend the Constitution. It will not be done for the benefit of one person [ie implying not done for the benefit of Thaksin]. He says there are people acting outside the rules of the Constitution [implying PAD and their protests]. Tomorrow, in parliament we will need be divided between the government the opposition. We are all elected. He tells the media that they must conclude who is right and who is wrong.

Somchai Wongsawat is asked whether Samak will still be PM. He just answers that Samak is still PM.

BP: So what happened after Samak's audience today? Surely, Samak and Surapong spoke before the press conference. If Samak had been asked to resign surely they wouldn't have been so definite tonight that we will leave it to parliament. I imagine Samak will tell us what happened on his weekly show tomorrow morning. There are no overt signs of coalition problems or Samak wanting to give in.

*Somchai Wongsawat is also there, but it is Surapong who is speaking - symbolic of the PPP factions?

**English is far from perfect, but is able to give a soundbite and answer in English.

... then be voted back in again:

Jacques-Chai Chonthongli at the advocacy group Focus on the Global South in Bagkok believes that Samak will make some concessions.

"We suspect that within the next one to two days there should be some political change; the minimum is a cabinet reshuffle," he told RFI. "There’s a possibility that he resign from the post but will be voted in again by the parliament."

BP: Actually, a vote of confidence by parliament would be a better option.

Historian in a comment at New Mandala:

The only problem is that Samak is the Frontman of PPP and trying to ignore the reality of what his gangster colleagues are doing. Fonzi , BP and Andrew will link whatever actions against this Gov with anti-Thaksin by promoting their anti monarchy propaganda. See , whenever they got chance , they worked like programmed machines.

BP: New insults! I am anti-monarchy and a programmed machine. Come on Historian, you can do better than that!

On programmed machines, there is this comment by the always insightful Srithanonchai in a guest post at New Mandala who has been attending the PAD protests:

A short while after I had taken this picture, the speaker on the truck said something to the effect of, “We have been assigned to walk to the Metropolitan Police Bureau. Let’s get up and move!” Of course, the crowd did as ordered. The PAD seems to have a command center that determines tactics and sub-commanders who move the protestors accordingly. Later in the evening, an old woman belonging to another group of protestors, who had turned up at the entrance of Phitsanulok road near the Bureau, also told me that they had been ordered to go there in their thousands. However, the number was not reached, and so they returned to their original site. This former teacher spoke excellent English and declared, “In these times, you cannot be neutral. You have to take sides. I do not like the people at Thammasat University, because they have not taken our side. I am a reborn Christian, and pray every day. I am convinced that God watches us and approves of our actions!”

BP: Now, exactly who is the programmed machine?

Since the Thaksin arrest warrants have been widely publicized it only seems far:



Source: ThaiENews - they also have the arrest warrants for other PAD leaders.

Bloomberg:

"Every sector of society is divided, even the military,'' said Kanin, the law lecturer. "If there is another coup it won't be as easy as last time. Anything can happen now.''

BP: While the Bangkok Post reports that Gen. Anupong has suggested to Samak to resign or dissolve parliament, Gen. Anupong also ruled out a coup "saying he did not see how it would resolve the political problem".

The military has its money, Anupong is safe and in command, and the 2006 coup is still fresh in people's memories. I think a coup is a longshot although the problem is that cannot be ruled out and because of this it is why Anupong and the military have so much more power.

Bloomberg:

``I will not resign,'' Samak said after a ceremony in Bangkok involving Crown Prince Maha Vajiralongkorn to promote unity ahead of Bhumibol's 81st birthday in December. ``I will not dissolve the House. I will meet the king today to report what's going on.''

BP: No ambiguity to that statement.

btw, here is Samak with the Crown Prince - I would post the photo myself, but well there are dangers to posting such photos as they move down the page!

Earlier it was suggested that the coalition partners wanted Samak to resign. AP:

The Chart Thai Party, a key member of Samak's six-party ruling coalition, said it was ready to suggest that Samak step down.

"The coalition partners have the impression that the situation is deteriorating and we are thinking of telling the prime minister to decide on the future of the government," said Somsak Prisana-anantakul, deputy leader of Chart Thai.

The Nation reports:

The coalition partners held the emergency meeting at Chart Thai leader Banharn Silapaarcha's residence late Friday night, during which they discussed a proposal for Samak to resign, instead of dissolving the House of Representatives, according to sources. However, a TV report said that after the heated debate, the coalition partners agreed to continue backing Samak.

Deputy Prime Minsiter and senior Chart Thai member Sanan Kachornprasart was said to be the one who "coordinated" the meeting.

Bloomberg:*

``The coalition parties agree we should seek a solution by means of politics,'' Somsak Prissananantakul, farm minister and deputy leader of the Chart Thai party, said by phone last night.
...
``If you surrender to those who use unlawful means for the government to resign, then you have to live with this endlessly in the future,'' said Kudeb Saikrajang, a spokesman for Samak's party. ``You set a bad precedent that will hurt confidence among foreign investors looking to do business in Thailand.''

BP: An hour or so ago, Somsak was interviewed on TV. He said we must settle the issue in parliament. if people don't accept the law, the country cannot move ahead. PAD have supporters in Parliament and they can put their view across, but everyone must accept. News of Chat Thai withdrawing support for the coalition is just some rumour which has been released.

Bangkok Post:

After the meeting, Mr. Banharn told a press briefing that the coalition parties have agreed to propose a special parliamentary meeting Sunday to seek a solution to end the stand-off between PAD supporters and the government.

BP: Tomorrow, we will see what happens.

AP:

The People's Alliance for Democracy protesters settled in for a fourth night occupying the grounds housing his offices. They have fought police — under orders to show restraint — to a standoff.

"After the current government is ousted, we will propose a totally new political system with those corrupt guys prosecuted and we will have a clean and efficient political system," protest leader Sondhi Limthongkul told The Associated Press.
...
The protesting alliance and its sympathizers — monarchists, the military and the urban elite — complain that Western-style democracy of one man, one vote gives too much weight to Thailand's rural majority, whom they consider unsophisticated and susceptible to vote buying.

In such a system, they say, money politics fuels corruption and bad governance.

Friday saw the worst unrest in the latest round of protests.

After police forced their way into the Government House compound to deliver a court eviction order, the alliance fought police in running street battles, charging, punching and hitting officers with sticks. They withdrew to display minor injuries they got when police fought back.

Claiming "police brutality," alliance members later laid siege to city police headquarters, saying they wanted officers they accuse of violence surrendered to them. As they pressed against the gates, police threw tear gas canisters to disperse them.

"The situation is out of control," said police spokesman Surapol Tuantong.

Samak insisted the government would not employ force, but rather "soft and gentle" methods to oust the protesters, indicating he was willing to wait out the protesters, whose numbers go up and down from 2,000 to about 30,000.

He accused the protesters of trying to spark a confrontation with authorities that would lead to violence.

"They want bloodshed in the country. They want the military to come out and do the coup again," he said.
...
The alliance suggests that 30 percent of lawmakers could be elected, and 70 percent chosen from various occupations and professions.

Similar ideas have been floated before, most notably in 1983. The general who was then serving as prime minister — Prem Tinsulanoda, now an adviser to King Bhumibol Adulyadej — found himself frustrated by having to compromise with the elected politicians in his Cabinet.

The power of the elite has steadily dissipated since the 1932 overthrow of the absolute monarchy, with the growth of the middle class forcing a sharing of the spoils. Thaksin's empowerment of the rural majority — whom he wooed with unprecedented welfare programs — threatened their privilege more.

NYT:

Protesters in Thailand ratcheted up their campaign to oust the government on Friday, broadening their occupation to stop trains and block provincial airports, as well as waging an unsuccessful attack on police headquarters here.
...
Mr. Samak and his government have shown what many analysts say is notable restraint in dealing with the protesters. The occupation of the government compound has prevented civil servants working in the prime minister’s office from coming to work since Tuesday and has shut down schools and offices in the area.

“I am the one who ordered the police to step back,” Mr. Samak said late Friday. “I promised people in this country that I would be soft and gentle,” he said. “I’ve been patient up until now. But others may not be as patient.”

AFP:

Thai police on Friday fired tear gas and scuffled with protesters who are demanding the premier step down, as escalating turmoil in the kingdom heaped pressure on the seven-month-old government.

As protests spread across the country, shutting airports in the southern tourist hotspots, Prime Minister Samak Sundaravej insisted he was not going to give in to the protesters' demands.

"I will not quit. At this moment, I will not declare emergency rule, I will wait and see tomorrow," he told reporters.

Up to 25,000 protesters aligned with the People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD) have barricaded themselves in the main government complex, accusing Samak of being a figurehead for ousted premier Thaksin Shinawatra and calling for him to resign.

Skirmishes erupted throughout the day as police used shields and batons to deal with angry mobs, causing slight injuries to a few protesters.

About 2,000 demonstrators left the besieged Government House compound and marched to the nearby police headquarters on Friday evening to demand the officers involved in the clashes be handed over, prompting police to fire tear gas, witnesses at the scene said.

A government-run medical emergency centre said it had treated 35 people after the incident.

A meeting of the government's ruling coalition made up of Samak's People Power Party (PPP) and five others was quickly called on Friday evening, and an urgent parliamentary debate was scheduled for Sunday to discuss the crisis.

Asked if the debate could pacify protesters, Banharn Silpa-Archa, leader of the PPP's main coalition partner Chart Thai Party, said: "I don't know, it's up to PAD."

Bangkok Post:

Friday may have been "judgement day" but it still did not decide the outcome of the battle. The diplomatic corps seems shocked at the "civil coup" under way, and believes the rule of law should settle the political drama.
...
Interestingly, Prime Minister Samak Sundaravej is not seeking support from the domestic front only. He has adopted Thaksin's strategy in talking to such allies as the United States to ensure diplomatic back-up, or at least sympathy, for his elected administration "which is being overthrown by the political gangsters", according to sources.

In fact, Mr Samak has proven he cannot be underestimated. Although he apparently failed in his call for the media and public to take sides, he has succeeded in sticking to the legal card.
...
"For many people, the timing of the raid cannot be justified. Some think that if the PAD really wanted to topple the Samak administration, they should have stepped up the protest and employed the siege tactic during the Preah Vihear temple controversy as there would have been more momentum and legitimacy," he said.

While the PAD did break the law and violate some people's rights, Prof Sombat said Thai people should also maintain a broad perspective, that there is as yet no other force representing a political movement that is as strong and broad-based as the PAD.

"The PAD remains the strongest and staunchest political pressure group, essentially acting as a check and balance for Thailand's future political reform. They are the biggest group with the widest base of supporters and they are fighting against corrupt politicians," he said.

Other scholars express a similar view: that the movement needs to be protected even though the leadership should be criticised for its dangerous and flawed tactics.

"The core concept of the right to disagree with the government should be protected and the most important thing is to avoid instigating the use of force to crush that dissenting voice which might lead to casualties," said one of the October Generation leaders.

Although at this point, both the PAD and the government have committed some form of aggression, the call for restraint seems to be focused more on the government's side.

Prajak Kongkirati, a lecturer in political science at Thammasat University, said the PAD leaders must shoulder the burden. They should themselves not set any conditions which could lead to clashes.

"Civil disobedience should mean disobeying with civility. The leaders should face up to the arrest warrants issued by the appropriate authorities, like when the Assembly of the Poor and other activists did when they laid siege to Government House or Parliament. When Gandhi violated the law, he allowed himself to be detained by the police," said Mr Prajak.

With a new piece of the jigsaw in the form of Gen Panlop Pinmanee, former deputy director of the Internal Security Operations Command, being added to the picture, the PAD's image has become even more dubious.

"It is discouraging and a pity that the PAD has recently resorted to violence-instigating tactics, which is reducing its legitimacy. Gen Pallop's involvement will only portray the struggle as being formatted as a war against the other side," Mr Prajak said.
...
Likewise, a European diplomat observed that Thai society should be patient and let the judicial review take its course.

"The law is being implemented. Why does the PAD need to catalyse more confrontation? It is unfathomable that the PAD claims Thailand is not ready for democracy. Any change in the regime should be done through democratic means, shouldn't it?"

The diplomat dubbed the current political situation as "a civil coup", following the failure of the military coup two years ago.

"It is not healthy that the core values of PAD supporters boil down to only hatred of one person, Thaksin Shinawatra. It is irritating and a pity that a democratically-elected government is toppled by people on the streets who claim they represent the majority, which seems not to be the case," a diplomatic source commented.

BP: I included those Thai academics as no doubt they will be ostracized and labelled traitors of being influenced by their time abroad.

UDPATE: Ok, I have seen the TV coverage, but also found this statement by Maew:

Must be around 19.30 pm. after observing for an hour, i went back. ealier people said that police fired tear gas and some people had been shot (by something). couldn’t smell any remnant of tear gas. When i arrived the UDD protest an hour after, tear gas Prem’s house left its effects and unique ugly smell. Only smelled something like water, sweat and piss. Maybe I am not a sniffing dog.

BP: The police were admant on ThaiPBS tonight that they didn't use tear gas and it didn't come from them. Some people seemed to have suffered superficial shrapnel injuries so there seems to be more tear gas.

Also, based on some information I have received it was that things were thrown and not fired. The sound of firing is attributed as firecrackers. Someone threw something, what?

See the comments. This is interesting though. Truth Seeker posted an AP quote:

Associated Press journalists witnessed police throwing dozens of canisters of gas at the crowd of at least 2,000 people

Google it and you get hits and can see the text. Click on the links - ie this one from AP itself and the quote is gone. Do they automatically update with the latest Thailand violence update? You can see the above quote in this article here.

BP: The police head honcho on TV was certain it was not "tear gas" - some other kind of gas? But the video (see here and here) suggests tear gas particularly by the response by the protesters. Other video on TV shows tar gas and not a smoke bomb.

The police head honcho said he wasn't personally there, but had asked those on the ground. Perhaps, he needs to show them the video and ask again.

Bangkok Post:

Interior Minister Kowit Wattana dismissed reports that police fired teargas at anti-government protesters when they gathered in front of the police headquarters on Friday night.

He said "a third party" may have been responsible for cloud after cloud of gas of some sort which made crowd members react exactly as if they had been struck by CS anti-riot gas.

Pol Gen Kowit did not explain to reporters what happened out there but only said that police would stay patient.

Deputy metropolitan police commissioner Suporn Phansua also insisted that police did not fire tear gas at the demonstrators.

The foreign press, meanwhile, was clear about what happened. As one news agency put it:

Thai police used tear gas to disperse a crowd of several thousand anti-government protesters who were besieging city police headquarters

Another news agency (Reuters) put it:

TV footage showed teargas canisters exploding among the protesters, but police denied using them, saying they had only fired rubber bullets.

BP: How does one fire tear gas? Wouldn't it be seen on TV? There was a motive for the police to use tear gas as Absolutely Bangkok blogs:

ThaiPBS TV shows some dramatic footage of protesters trying to storm Metropolitan Police headquarters. Waving Thai flags and approaching in groups … Hospitals preparing, ASTV reports.

But then blogs this (in the same post):

Again disputes if tear gas was used at Metropolitan Police headquarters or not. Two reporters interviewed by NTB, one saying it definitively was and the other no, he didn’t feel any burning in the eyes … NBT propaganda?

BP: If tear gas was fired into the crowd, surely there must be images of the tear gas canisters being fired? That would settle the debate.

btw, earlier yesterday there were reports of tear gas according to PAD witnesses, but it turned out to be nothing.

I'll be honest (a little alcohol helps), elements of the Thai media are retarded. I was stuck listening to ThaiPBS' news coverage last night where the host repeated some 20 times that the protesters have the right to protest. Really? Protest anywhere? Do anything? Since friggin when? There is this weird situation where seizing government buildings and protesting there is like some norm and the protesters have been provided moral support by Abhisit, Senators, seemingly all members of the academia, and the Thai press corps.

Suddenly, the government has lost legitimacy because a number of PAD protesters were injured. ThaiPBS were interviewing one of those who suffered police brutality - it was a human interest story as daddy who brought along a child and the child was crying why they couldn't find daddy who went to seek medical treatment (the evil Samak government separating children from parents). I was struck by the fact that he was not seriously injured - worst injury I have heard is a broken bone. If police went too far, prosecute them. Yet no, the PM must resign. Not the Interior Minister. Not the Police Chief concerned. The PM. You'd think that he had been eating alive little kittens. Of course, when the PAD assault the media, the story is somehow relegated as a non-issue. No demands for the heads of the perpetrators.

The Nation:

Prime Minister Samak Sundaravej is granted an audience with HM the King to report the situation in the country, an informed source said.

Samak went to HM the King's Klaikangwon Palace in Hua Hin on Friday's evening.

BP: I'll try to come up with some analysis once things become clearer. I understand the reshuffle hasn't been endorsed by HM the King yet so...

btw, apologies for lack of updates, but other commitments took priority.

It is becoming chaos. Police can't seem to do anything. They are attacked and pushed back, but when they move back into position, there are scuffles and they are criticised. Now:

A number of protesters pushed through police barriers and stormed into the runway and the passenger building at Phuket Airport on Friday.

They committed vandalism by breaking windows at the VIP room.

The provincial governor was trying to negotiate with organisers from the local chapter of the People's Alliance for Democracy. Protesters said they were angry that the airport allowed the state carrier, Thai International Airways, to continue its flights.

The Nation reports:

Meanwhile protesters have regained control over Government House and surrounding areas from the Royal Plaza to the bridge. The PAD has set up mobile stages inside the Government House and around its grounds.

BP: As I just blogged, Sondhi L is threatening to beseige police stations unless he gets what he wants- to cheers from the civilsed PAD crowd. According to The Manager, he has set a 7pm deadline or else. Rosana and other Senators say you can't use force - does that include tear gas and water canons? I don't understand the dialogue argument as Rosana said yesterday that the government had made contact with the PAD leaders, but they have not responded. The PAD have stated clearly that Samak and the Cabinet must resign.

That can't be what they want as MPs could just choose Samak all over again or will the Democrat option come into play? Dissolution is unlikely to work as I don't imagine PPP supporters in the Northeast will be that happy with things so either we have a military government and martial law or the government takes action against the protesters.

It seems things are escalating so a State of Emergency is the only way for the government to control the situation.

UPDATE:

17:15pm Someone e-mails with the following screenshots:





Matichon quotes Sondhi L as saying that if the police hurt the people then every police station will be on fire. Today, the police must take action against police who hurt the people. If we don't receive and answer then tonight we will beseige [sorry, I can't read] the police station. Bangkok will be on fire and cannot guarantee that nothing will happen in Bangkok tonight.

Here is the full quote in Thai:

“ถ้าตำรวจทำร้ายประชาชนอีกครั้งในครั้งนี้ สถานีตำรวจทุกแห่งจะลูกเป็นไฟ วันนี้เราจะจับตำรวจบ้าง ผบชน.ต้องจัดการตำรวจที่ทำร้ายประชาชน ถ้ายังไม่ได้รับคำตอบ คืนนี้เราจะล้อมโรงพักด้วย กรุงเทพฯจะลุกเป็นไฟ และไม่รับประกันว่า คืนนี้จะมีอะไรเกิดขึ้นในกรุงเทพฯ”นายสนธิกล่าวอย่างดุเดือด ท่ามกลางเสียงโห่ร้องของกลุ่มชุมนุมที่เริ่มทยอยไปตามคำสั่ง กระทั่งเวลา 16.15 น. มีการแจ้งบนเวที ว่า ทางสตช.ได้สั่งถอนกำลังตำรวจออกจากพื้นที่ทำเนียบแล้ว

BP: Meanwhile Rosana and the Senators are continuing on their quest for "justice". Any doubt that Sondhi L is not interested in bloodshed.

UPDATE: OP has said in a comment that:

By the way A Thai person I was talking to said that Sonthi did not say burn the police staions but make them "hot" as in places difficlut to be in or work in. I dont know Thai well enough to comment on translations of this gravity

BP: It is do with a translation of ลุกเป็นไฟ. It can mean to make something on fire or a hot place to work in so. He is threatening police stations. He has issued a 7pm deadline

Thai Rath reports that the police have withdrawn their forces from Government House and that there are clashes at Makkawan Bridge. Matichon reports that Samak and Anupong met this afternoon. It quotes Anupong as saying Samak is "stressed".

16:30pm Bangkok Post:

Police on Friday clashed twice with demonstrators, but then backed off with no gains, as PAD founder Sondhi Limthongkul called for anti-government reinforcements to help on the group's "judgement day".

It was not clear just what Mr Sondhi meant by "judgement day". He may believe police are ready to mass for an assault on protesters, or he may be readying his own followers for more attacks.

The PAD - People's Alliance for Democracy - early on Friday pushed police out of Government House in Bangkok, convinced the railway union to stop all trains nationwide, and blockaded tourist-centric airports in Phuket and Hat Yai in the South.

Prime Minister Samak Sundaravej promised again that police would not use force to disperse a 96-day old running protest in Bangkok.

Scuffles between protesters and police were reported as police were delivering a court order demanding the protesters leave Government House and roads around the seat of the Thai administration.

But the day began during midnight darkness, when demonstrators armed with sticks and golf clubs and occupying Government House pushed and shoved police out of the compound.

Nine hours later, at mid-morning, 400 similarly armed police pushed their way back into the compound. Some injuries were reported, but none appeared serious. Then, at mid-afternoon, police simply pulled out - having achieved nothing noticable except to annoy the protesters.

Mr Samak refused to say whether police were preparing to arrest the nine core leaders of PAD ordered detained by the court on charges including treason. He said that police were negotiating with PAD to move out of the grounds of Government House.

BP: So when the PAD push the police out of Government House it is ok? But when the police try to get back in it is not ok? This is anarchy.

The Nation:

The chief advisor of the Supreme Command and some 30 senators met Metropolitan Police chief Pol Lt Gen Asawin Kwanmuang at 3:15 pm Friday to ask police not to use violence against protesters.

The senators included Rosana Tositrakul.

Gen Pathompong Kesornsuk, the chief advisor to the Supreme Command, and the senators asked the Metropolitan police chief to pull out police forces from the Government House as well.

About 200 protesters rallied outside the Metropolitan Police head office while the group met Asawin.

BP: Matichon says 500. Gen. Pathompong is the General who appeared in full uniform at a PAD rally recently.

15:00pm Matichon reports that a group calling itself the "Thai Justice Group" have filed a court petition to close down ASTV...

The Nation has some videos.

Sondhis L is being his conciliatory self:

Mr Sondhi called Friday the "judgment day" and that the group would not let anyone to dictate them.

"Today is the judgment day," he said. "We will not let anyone to order us what to do. We will win.

Matichon reports that Rosana and a group of more than 10 Senators visited Government House to provide moral support for the protesters. Having seen the images of the police action she sees the protesters have been suppressed. Abhisit has also arrived at Government House.

BP: I don't the extent of any violence perpetrated by the police, but a PAD supporter I know has been making comparisons with Black May (1992). However, whenever I go to The Manager frontpage - where surely the worst pictures are on display, I see little to be sufficiently outraged about or start making wild comparisons. Below, is a screenshot which dominates the frontpage now:



BP: Does this constitute police brutality - we don't know how caused but if we are accept it was the police - to the extent that the PM should resign as it is has lost legitimacy?

14:30pm Reports that PAD protesters in Songkhla and Phuket have blocked off access to the airport.

This from earlier this morning:

The PAD leaders remained inside Government House after the warrants were issued and challenged police to arrest them there. They vowed not to flee and were surrounded by thousands of supporters on the lawn of Government House. Women and children sat in rows at the gates to prevent police from storming the compound.

BP: Human shields?

14:00pm La Stampa: (via a commentator)

Let’s call things with their right names. What the People’s Alliance for Democracy (PAD) did on August 26 by storming a TV station, assaulting many ministries and then camping in the gardens of the government house was a putsch. It is only unclear whether the putsch was successful or not.

If the democratically elected Prime minister feels powerless and steps down, the putsch was successful. If the PAD leaders are arrested and their demonstrations disbanded the coup failed. Short of that, if only a compromise is reached, then government will still be alive but hardly in control – it would be as if it were hooked on a life supporting machine, under the constant threat of the next push by the PAD.

A coup d’etat in Thailand would be dangerous in normal circumstances, because it would push back the regional process of democratization, because it would be bad inspiration for Filipino or Indonesian generals eager to grab back political power thanks to the barrels of their tanks.

Now, a putsch could be worse, a disaster as it would greatly enhance global instability by opening new fronts, new fault lines in this semi-new cold war period with Russia.

The putsch in Thailand must be stopped.

In 1981, only a few years after the demise of the Spanish dictator Francisco Franco, and the then brief return to the democracy in Spain, the military staged a coup d’etat. The national TV showed lieutenant colonel Antonio Tejero holding the elected parliament at gun point and claiming he was acting on behalf of the King. In those times putsches were more “acceptable” than nowadays. However, the King of Spain announced he did not back any coup and Tejero got arrested.

Can the King of Thailand stop the putsch now? The PAD has put the King in a bind. The PAD people claim to be royalists, they even don a yellow shirt, in respect of the King, then how can a King, who keeps himself out of politics, move against his most loyal subjects?

Moreover, the PAD accuses Thai Prime Minister Samak Sundaravej of plotting to turn Thailand from a monarchy to a republic. Samak denies it, the PAD does not believe it. What is true?

Actually, Thailand is a democracy, and thus all opinions can be expressed, if the Prime Minister wanted to turn Thailand into a republic he could voice his opinion and campaign for it. If he doesn’t then evidently he wants the monarchy.

However, if PAD members claim to be royalists in this forceful way they accuse all their enemies of being “republicans”. But shouldn’t be the king the one who judges who is royalist and who is not? What grounds has the PAD for branding its enemies with convenient labels? In fact, the behavior is old and experimented. The Italian fascists in the 1920s claimed to protect the national interests and accused all their political enemies of being traitors of the motherland. They brought Italy to ruin and caused the end of monarchy.

Today the situation in Thailand is even more serious. The government has been democratically elected just seven months ago; opinion polls show that over 70% of the people are against the ongoing protest and in favor of the government; the PAD makes no mystery of upholding a strongly authoritarian agenda asking only 30% of the parliament to be elected – the rest should be appointees.

Although, the tradition in Bangkok is different, now it should be time for the King of Thailand to take a cue from his Spanish colleague: step in and stop the coup once and for all. If he does it with clarity and determination he will have assured Thailand’s future stability as no-one will be tempted to abuse his name in the future. It could be a strong historical legacy for the region and the world in these very confusing times.

If nothing moves, and the elected government is forced to step back, if the situation is allowed to fester on, it would be the second putsch in less than two years. The stock exchange already lost over 25% in a few days, the baht is tumbling down against the already weak dollar, business confidence is collapsing and even ever buoyant tourism could start to suffer. Thailand could soon become the new sick man of Asia – with all its consequences.

BP: Be careful about commenting on the royal family! I am not so sure one can interpret the poll the other day as saying 70% of people are against the ongoing protest - they were against the raids the other day.

On whether it is a putsch, I am almost there. There is a thin line between people's power and something verging on a putsch. Taking over and occupying Government House is not just a political protest.

13:30pm The Manager has a collection of photos on "police brutality" although there is only one which might qualify and that is off what appears to be gun pointing down in the direction of a protester although from the angle it is hard to tell. This seems to be the main photo on the front page too.

Matichon quotes the head of the Legal Execution Department as saying that the Court has accepted the appeal petition, but has yet to make any amendments or revoked the earlier order requiring them to take action. [PAD's lawyer disagrees]. Therefore, they must enforce the earlier order.

Parliament is holding a debate.

The Nation reports that ASTV (the protester's TV channel):

ASTV kept rerunning scenes of police beating up protesters Friday morning in attempt to urge more people to join the protest at the Government House.

Its footage showed police hitting some protesters with batons while a protest leader was broadcast live from the state inside the Government House compound to join the protest.

BP: Anyone have any screenshots as the images I have seen are rather tame for protests?

Absolutely Bangkok is live-blogging and has more updates than me so have a look.

13:00pm Bangkok Post reports:

Police broke into the Government House because it has to follow the injunction of the Civil Court, which ordered that supporters of People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD) move out of the Government House and its compound, deputy police spokesman Surapon Thuanthong said Friday.

The move came after legal execution officials placed the court's order at five entrances of the Government House to officially inform the protesters that they leave the compound immediately.

Pol Maj Gen Surapon said police are not trying to break up the rally.

"We are not dispersing the crowd. But we follow the court's order," he said. "And police did not use force on protesters because this is a sensitive matter."

He also dismissed initial reports that police threw teargas on protesters.

"Blood will not be shed," he insisted.

BP: I am sure the pictures and video will be viewed to see whether the police used "force" because I am not sure that statement holds up. The Nation reports that police were beating some protesters and forcing them to lie down. Samak has defended the police saying they were complying with the court order.

11:50am Manager reports (at 11:32) that the Appeal Court has allowed an appeal. Earlier the police where with the staff from the legal execution department (who enforce the law) to enforce the court order.

After the PAD's armed guards forced the police out in the early hours of this morning I wondered how long the government could tolerate this. It seems not long.

Bangkok Post:

Hundreds of riot police, armed with bats and shields, broke into the Government House compound again at around 10.30am Friday, several hours after they were pushed out by People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD) protesters.

They managed to break the human walls formed by PAD supporters and managed to enter the Government House.

The Nation reports:

A reporter of the station said police were negotiating with an aide of Chamlong Srimuang, asking him to lead the protesters out of the compound or else police would force them out.

Then:

At 10:50 am, police fired teargas at protesters blocking the Gate 7 of the Government House on the side of Padung Krung Kasem Canal.

Matichon reports that the the police are beginning to disperse the protesters at Government House and the Makkawan Bridge [outside the UN]. It notes that police do not have firearms. They are detaining protesters and getting them to lie down. Many injuries have been suffered.

Developing...

The Bangkok Post:

The Channel 9 news crews who were reporting live from near the Santi Maitree building decided to move from Government House for their own safety after protesters turned against them. Protesters were upset with what they believed was biased news coverage. They also feared police posing as reporters could enter the rally grounds to detain their leaders, who are wanted on charges of insurrection.

''On the first day of the rally [Tuesday], while I reported from on top of our outside broadcast van, protesters pelted me with bottles and others threw water on me,'' said Channel 9 reporter Ananya Tangjaitrong.

''Our technician was hit on the hand with a metal pipe. Protesters shook our van and struck it with objects.

''They abused us to disrupt our reporting, but we remained calm for our own safety and the station's property. The van alone costs more than 10 million baht.''

She said protesters claimed the station under-reported the number of people at the rally.

She argued TV news programmes did not report the figure, to avoid provoking the protesters.

Media intimidation would not help the People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD), she said.

Live reporting was essential so they could be on the spot if the the government resorted to violent means to break up the rally.

Naew Na newspaper reporter Jeerapong Prasertpolgrang said reporters were subject to strict searches by PAD supporters.

They were barred from entering certain areas because PAD feared they were spies or bombers in disguise.

''We do not take sides. We want to cover the situation straightforwardly with freedom and understanding,'' he said.

Nation reporter Samudcha Hoonsara said PAD leaders incited hostility towards outsiders, particularly reporters. They told protesters that police were donning disguises as reporters. As a result, reporters were being closely watched.

The situation is worse for NBT staff. The station's headquarters were raided on Tuesday because the PAD believed it acted as a government mouthpiece.

A NBT cameraman, who asked not to be named, covered up his media ID card. He said NBT logos were removed from cameras and vans. When asked, he said he came from another station.

Channel 7 reporter Chada Somboonpol said the situation improved after reporters told the PAD leaders about their problems.

New PAD leader Samran Rodpetch told the protesters to let the media do their job.

BP: Ironically, the PAD call the government a "police state". Now, who is exhibiting signs of acting like a police state with their barricades and guards etc? It is not the government.

Gen Panlop moves to the forefront:

The People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD) could become more aggressive if Gen Panlop Pinmanee gets directly involved in the anti-government demonstrations.

The former deputy director of the Internal Security Operations Command (Isoc) promised quick action to topple Prime Minister Samak Sundaravej.

''Go tell Mr Samak that if he is brave, he must order the arrest of Maj-Gen Chamlong [Srimuang] and the other core leaders and disperse the protest.

''Once the arrests are made, I will volunteer as the next leader in lieu of Chamlong as we have made some commitments. As a friend, I will pursue his goal. I need only two days and everything will end,'' Gen Panlop said.
...
Gen Panlop said there were two conditions to the agreement between them. If his friend was arrested, he would be ready to take over as the next PAD leader. He also said he would switch the method of confrontation from ''ahimsa'', or the principle of non-violence that Maj-Gen Chamlong embraced.

''My decision to join PAD will take effect immediately once Maj-Gen Chamlong is arrested,'' he said.
...
''In this situation, Maj-Gen Chamlong or Samak cannot take a step back. There must be a breaking point, otherwise the country will become disheartened. If we want to remove an abscess, we must be ready to face pain to get rid of the infectious part.

''It's better than letting it become a chronic wound which will cause great damage to the country,'' said Gen Panlop.

The Bangkok Post seemingly has evidence of this trend

Protesters armed with clubs pushed and forced police off the grounds of Government House early on Friday morning as a senior PAD member threatened to make demonstrations "more aggressive".

The 1am confrontation ended with 400 police retreating to the street after being threatened by demonstrators armed with sticks and golf clubs.

After their muscle-flexing "victory", the People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD) protesters celebrated by dancing to rock music.

BP: How much longer can the government tolerate this?

btw, The Nation reported the event as a "peace march":

...protesters formed a line by holding hands and walked towards police, prompting police to raise their shield to protect themselves.

Yesterday, Occasional Poster commented:

However, deals cant be done with rowdy street demonstrations overseeing everything. The UDD/DAAD seem oddly quiet these days. Nothing to do with Newin moving center stage in deal making of course;)

BP: UDD/DAAD are of course the pro-Thaksin, anti-coup protesters. The Bangkok Post has the answer:

Jatuporn Promphan, a People Power party MP and a leading member of the United Front of Democracy Against Dictatorship (UDD), showed no fear of Gen Panlop's aggressive stance. He warned the former Isoc deputy chief not to take any action that would break the law.

Despite the confrontation between the PAD and the government, Mr Jatuporn said UDD members will not stage major rallies to counter the anti-government group. The UDD, which is loyal to ousted prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra, played a role in opposing the military coup in September 2006.

BP: Clearly, the better response than organizing previous protests.

PAD tightly control their message. They of course freely talk to the Manager Group publications, but less so to other publications. They have a bit of a love-hate relationship as The Nation reports:

People's Alliance for Democracy guards had a run-in yesterday with three reporters whom they feared were opponents of the protesters.

Poowadon Songprasert, a social science lecturer at Kasetsart University and a prominent PAD member, shouted rudely and grasped Sasinapa Wattana-wannarat, a female reporter from Matichon, round the body as he tried to shoo the reporters away.

PAD guards and protesters were preparing a barrier to try to prevent a police raid. On seeing the reporters, the guards shouted: "They [opponents] come in disguise."

More guards surrounded the three and told them to leave the second floor of the Banchakarn Building. When the reporters showed media identification cards, the guards said they did not care, as they could be fake IDs and the people could be opponents in disguise.

The guards became threatening, saying they should leave or they would attack with slingshots. Protesters then surrounded the reporters to force them to move.

Sasinapa and her two colleagues then went to the press room, where about 50 reporters were based.

Later, PAD leaders sought to make amends. Sondhi Limthongkul escorted Sasinapa to her car. Co-leader Pibhop Dhongchai told journalists the PAD would tell its guards to understand and protect reporters.

Meanwhile, PAD protesters gathered near the press room to see what happened and news reporters were unable to get out of the room for a while.

Earlier in the day, National Broadcasting Television (NBT) told viewers its reporters would not identify the site in Government House from which they were reporting because of fears the protesters would harm them.

BP: As I speak ThaiPBS are interviewing 3 celebrities who are part of the PAD protests for their views

The full report is here (PDF). From the summary:

Against this backdrop, the military has been left to lead operations in the Deep South and has made some progress in reducing violent attacks in the first half of the year. But the insurgents, well-established and hardened, are far from being defeated, and the advances come at a price. The “sweeping operations” since June 2007 have involved the indiscriminate detention of thousands of suspected insurgents and sympathisers, and there are credible reports of torture of detainees. The case of an imam beaten to death in military custody in March 2008 attracted severe condemnation from human rights advocates. There has been little progress on holding security personnel accountable for notorious past abuses.

Ending the violence in the Deep South requires more than a military response. Now, with the insurgents on the defensive, is a good time to take decisive steps to address the root causes of the conflict. The political deadlock in Bangkok, however, makes it unlikely that the government will be able to turn its attention to the Deep South any time soon. The longer this is put off, the harder it will become to contain, let alone resolve the conflict.

The insurgency’s lack of a declared political leadership or platform is a major obstacle in the search for a negotiated settlement. Nonetheless, there is much that the government could do unilaterally to address Malay grievances in the realms of education, justice, language, history and economy. But this requires a rethinking on the part of the predominantly Buddhist state, which needs to recognise the distinct ethnic identity of Malay Muslims and find ways of allowing them to be Thai citizens without having to compromise their cultural differences.

In particular, the government should:

1. appoint a deputy prime minister to take charge of the effort to cope with southern violence, instead of allowing the military to lead on the issue;
2. empower the Southern Border Provinces Administrative Centre (SBPAC) by expediting the enactment of a law to govern its operations and to make it independent from the military-controlled Internal Security Operations Command;
3. revoke martial law, amend the emergency decree and the internal security act to increase accountability of the security forces, and allow detainees prompt access to lawyers and family;
4. ensure accountability for past human rights abuses, such as the deaths of nearly 200 Muslims in the 2004 Tak Bai and Krue Se incidents – the single most effective way to rebuild trust with Malay Muslims;
5. make clear it is ready to negotiate seriously with genuine leaders of the insurgency, but make it a condition of the negotiations that their inter­locutors demonstrate they genuinely control insurgents on the ground; and
6. give serious consideration to ways of granting some degree of self-rule, or decentralisation of power, to help end the conflict

BP:

On (1) I don't see any need for a Deputy PM - yes, it would be nice - but I prefer the current approach of the military handling it. I'm about to review one of Askew's books on the South and there are serious problems with politicising it - Askew refers to the Democrat's demonisation of the Thaksin government. I think things have got better as it is has been out of the politician's hand. It is oversight which I am more interested in.

On (2), I will get into this more once I have finished my post on Askew book. Basically, I am sceptical whether the agency will help.

On (3), I don't have time to get into a long critique now (Damn PAD!), but I will first say what I agree with. I agree with revoking of martial law and using only the State of Emergency, but I disagree on the State of Emergency Decree - see this post. I agree on the access to lawyers or the alternative being that those detained that the evidence they provide is inadmissible.

On (4), nice in theory, but it won't happen so I don't want to waste much time on thinking about it.

On (5), I don't agree with negotiations now. Talks and dialogue yes, but there is not enough knowledge about who they even or are or what they want.

On (6), I agree on the election of governors - if it is good enough for Bangkok then why not elsewhere.

If there were only a few more hours in each day, I would offer more commentary, but that is it for now.

Asia Times:

Samak and his security forces have shown extraordinary restraint in the face of the group's unprecedented attacks on government installations in Bangkok. The beleaguered premier told reporters on Tuesday that the PAD was bent on stoking violence and forcing him to declare a state of emergency, a case scenario that would allow the armed forces to restore order and potentially take over executive power.

Samak's temperance, analysts note, marks a break from his past pugnacious ways, including his alleged - but contested - role in the violent crackdown on left-leaning students in 1976, and his better documented heavy-handed handling of farmer-led protests in Bangkok as a former interior minister in the 1990s.
...
Some speculate that the PAD's extreme measures this week were aimed at creating a situation of anomie similar to 1992 where the revered, now 80-year-old monarch would have felt compelled to intervene and through his unmatched moral authority establish a middle way out of the political conflict. That conflict, once defined primarily by pro- and anti-Thaksin camps, has been complicated more recently by splits in the military between hardliners and a more moderate faction that at present holds top command positions.

Some military analysts view this week's violence as receiving at least tacit, if not logistical, support from some of the hardline elements, who favor a more assertive role for the military in politics. An official attached to the Prime Minister's Office told Asia Times Online his office was closely monitoring the movements and actions of a group of military officials situated at the Nang Lerng horseracing track, a well-known army haunt near Government House. He named in particular General Panlop Pinmanee, who has previously denied any association with the PAD, and Manoonkrit Roopkachorn, who was involved in attempted coups in 1981 and 1985.

BP: Gen. Panlop has stated today and repeated around 30 minutes on Kitti's Sahm Mitti (Three Dimensions) news program that he will replace Chamlong if Chamlong is arrested. He said this goes to a pact/agreement from 16 years ago.

The article continues:

The opposition Democrats, too, are seen by some as at least tangentially complicit in the PAD's attacks through member of parliament Somkiat Pongpaiboon, who doubles as one of the protest group's leaders but who cannot be immediately arrested and charged due to his parliamentary immunity.
...
He said his party had offered to open a special session of parliament to mediate the conflict, but that so far Samak had refused. Korn said he believed army commander Anupong Paochinda's "grip on control was firm", but also acknowledged "there was always the danger of a third hand with a hidden agenda trying to bring the conflict to a head". He said the best democratic scenario forward would be for Samak to resign and for the Democrats to form a new government with realigned political parties.

BP: Who would be PM? If Samak is part of the Gang of Four, why would he give up being PM for Abhisit to take over? How much power would Newin have in the new party given his faction would have around 80-100 MPs? Surapong is part of the Gang of Four and is Finance Minsiter now. I don't see Korn giving up the opportunity.

I am not saying it is impossible, but as I have blogged before I am sceptical. Well, that aside the fact for the last 4 months, we have been hearing stories of a Democrat-led government with Samak as PM. Now, this no longer seems possible. Are the Democrats that desperate that they don't want a dissolution, a new election, and a mandate?

The article continues:

Without that or a royal intervention, Thailand's increasingly assertive courts will likely be tasked with resolving the political morass. The PAD's leaders now face an array of serious criminal charges, including treason, conspiracy to incite treason and refusal to disperse when ordered by law enforcement authorities. If convicted of the treason charges, the PAD's leaders face possible life in prison or even death sentences.

With arrest warrants and treason charges pending against the PAD leadership, and the movement's arch nemesis, Thaksin, a fugitive from justice and in self-imposed exile in Britain, political analysts anticipate a political course shift in the months ahead with a new center coalescing among some previously opposed political camps.

Conciliatory calls for some sort of - at least symbolically - royally endorsed national unity government are expected to grow in the weeks ahead, with the opposition Democrats somehow brought into the ruling fold. Such a case scenario would also alleviate mounting national anxiety about the royal succession as Bhumibol turns 81 in December.

Whether a national unity government would ease the passions of the PAD's supporters or stoke new tensions among the northeastern region politicians, who won last December's general elections under a pro-Thaksin, People's Power Party banner, is altogether unclear. The reconstituted PAD rallies have been populated in the main by middle-aged and elderly protesters hailing from southern provinces, where the Democrats hold electoral sway.
...
He was also able in some ways to leverage the PAD to his political advantage. By targeting and - though their megaphone criticisms - helping to topple Thaksin's top lieutenants inside his administration, including former house speaker Yongyuth Tiyapairat, Prime Minister's Office minister Jakrapob Penkair and foreign minister Noppadon Pattama, Samak has been able to consolidate a more independent grip on his government.

The protest movement's vigorous complaint against PPP MPs' proposed moves to amend the constitution, including a possible rescinding of the amnesty clause for the coup-makers the military wrote into the charter, allowed Samak to back away from a move that would have irked the senior military figures, including army commander Anupong Paochinda, he has angled with a large degree of success to cultivate.

The PAD's apparent last act will also give Samak the opportunity to pursue a more deep-reaching political reordering, including a move away from the PPP northeastern region faction closely aligned to Thaksin, further cultivation of powerbroker politician Newin Chidchob's political faction of 100 or so MPs, and if he chooses, a potential alliance with the Democrats. The PAD's apparent demise, it seems, will most likely be Samak's political victory.

BP: If Newin still has enough power, what is to stop the PAD from protesting again? The same financial supporters of the PAD were against the Democrats in the past and champions of Thaksin. I don't imagine Korn will be some protectionist and state enterprise unions will unlikely be quiet.

If Newin is abandoning Thaksin, why go to visit him in London? If there was going to be a major parting of the way, wouldn't after the election be a better time to do it? With the dissolution case coming - well, unless they know the result in advance - wouldn't a realignment after the this or after the election be a better time?

Honestly, I still see the PPP factions being in the next government. They have worked together since 2001.

The Nation:

Certain senators might have committed contempt to the judiciary by showing moral support to the People's Alliance for Democracy inspite of its defiance for arrest warrants and eviction order, People Power Party MP Wisut Chainarun on Thursday.

Wisut was reacting to the news that 10 senators paid a visit to the PAD's rally inside Government House and that some 30 senators cast doubts on treason charges filed agianst the nine PAD leaders.

"These senators have been the advocates for the judicial review but are acting curiously when the PAD is being targetted for the judicial proceedings," he said.

BP: So will this PPP MP apply the same standards to PPP as well?

The Nation:

A group of 30 senators on Thursday questioned whether police were too harsh in charging the nine leaders of the People's Alliance for Democracy for treason.

"Protesters do not have sufficient arms and strength to change the administrative regime and overthrow democracy," senator Tuang Anthachai said.

Tuang said his fellow senators were worrying about the confrontation between the government and the PAD which might degenerate into violence.

Bangkok Senator Rosana is quoted in Matichon as saying that political problems need to be solved through politics and not just relying on law* (ไม่ใช่ยึดแต่กฎหมายอย่างเดียว). Therefore, the government and police should withdraw the charge as it would reduce the political tensions. Those who should be punished should only be punished by what is the truth (i.e by that they did).

BP: If there is no evidence of a rebellion - I think rebellion is a better translation of กบฏ than treason - why did the Court issue the arrest warrants? If there is no evidence of a rebellion, why don't they fight the charges in court? Do they not trust the Thai judicial system to adjudicate fairly? Interesting that Rosana wants the government and police to withdraw charges for political reasons. I wonder if that applies to a certain person in the UK....

Matichon has comments from academics on the treason charge as well. One commented that is to prevent bail and says that the protests are in accordance with democracy and no violence has been used to bring down the government. Another academic (Surichai Wangaew) says that the protests up until now have been in accordance with the law. Another Surichai (Pol. Sci Thammsat) says th same, but adds that the seizing of government offices was not that serious to bring down the government system. He called for Samak to resign as 65% of people in the Bangkok University poll want a change in government.

BP: First, I blogged on the poll and the change was not limited to Samak resigning:

...65.1% want a change (33.3% want a new election, 17% want the PM to resign, 14.8% want the Cabinet to resign).

BP: Also, this is a Bangkok-centric poll, what about the rest of the country?

I think there is a reasonable argument to make that the PAD leaders have not committed rebellion, but then again aren't we in an age now that we should let the judiciary decide and not criticise?

*Yes, I wrote politics first time round.

Pol. Gen. (retired) Kowit, Interior Minister, and others had stated that the PAD protesters needed to leave Government House as the Crown Prince would be presiding over a royal ceremony at Government House on August 30. Today, Sondhi L said this was a lie:

Sondhi Limthongkul, a leader of the People's Alliance for Democracy, claimed Thursday that Interior Minister Kowit Watana lied about the royal ceremony to be chaired by His Royal Highness Crown Prince Maha Vajiralongkorn at Government House.

But Sondhi told the crowd at the rally site inside Government House that he had checked with the Royal Household Bureau and learnt that the Crown Prince had no plan to chair any ceremony at Government House on Saturday.

BP: Samak has announced that the venue has changed to Suan Amporn, but some have speculated that there was no such event and the government made it up. A bit of problem with that is this news article from last week (check the comments as they are dated August 18):

Prime Minister and Defence Minister Samak Sundaravej said provincial governors nationwide will receive flags to celebrate the government’s Mother Day to Father Day campaign on August 30. The 116-day campaign is being held to promote national unity, and it runs between Her Majesty the Queen’s birthday on August 12 and His Majesty the King’s birthday on December 5.

During the premier’s talk show at the state-run NBT television channel on Sunday morning, he said His Royal Highness Crown Prince Maha Vajiralongkorn will attend the ceremony of presenting flags carrying the royal emblems of Their Majesties the King and Queen together with the national flag to all provincial governors. He said the ceremony will be held at the Government House on August 30.

The governors will bring the flags to their respective provinces for celebration, and parades will be organized from district to district and province to province, Mr Samak said.

He added that the flags will be presented to His Majesty the King on December 3, and they will represent a milestone of unity among Thai people

BP: So either the police spokesman, the Interior Minister (part of the so-called blue blooded faction), and the Prime Minister are all lying and the Bangkok Post and Google (we have a cache version of the article from August 20) are in cahoots together OR Sondhi L is lying/"misunderstood"? Hmmm... Make up your own mind.

Bangkok Post:

The biggest challenge is perhaps the PAD's rise to power through media tycoon Sondhi Limthongkul's use of his Manager newspaper and ASTV, the news website and satellite TV station.

If you want neutrality from the PAD, forget it. If you want rational discussion, forget it.

But if you want ideological legitimacy and a sense of pride and empowerment, that ordinary people like you can "save" the country - and most importantly the revered monarchy - from the evils of Thaksin Shinawatra's rule, then the Manager Group, which has broken all neutrality rules, fits the bill.

Is it because media neutrality has become an outdated notion now that society has become too fragmented?

BP: The motivations of the PAD supporters? I think we can take it Sanitsuda is not a fan.

Earlier today Samak stated:

Samak on Thursday made a surprising statement that he last night talked to senior police, asking them not to use force on the protesters.

"I told police that they should not use force in dealing with the protest at the Government House," Samak told reporters.

So the police adopted the tactic of providing vans and buses to offer free transport to reduce the PAD numbers. PAD respond by telling their supporters not to leave or we will "lose". Then, as they did last night, under the guise of protecting themselves from a police raid, the PAD order the shutting of the gates.

BP: Tear down those gates!

UPDATE: Panlop has confirmed he will join PAD if Chamlong is arrested.

On Tuesday, a government spokesman said that Gen. Panlop was involved in the PAD protests, but he came out to deny this:

Meanwhile, Panlop Pinmanee, the former deputy director of the Internal Security Operations Command (Isoc), denied he was behind the PAD rally or its siege of Government House.

He admitted he had close ties with Chamlong Srimuang, a PAD leader, but said they had different methods of pursuing their causes.

Maj-Gen Chamlong embraced ''ahimsa'', or the principle of non-violence, in fighting the government while he had less patience than the PAD core leader, Gen Panlop said.

If he had engineered the PAD moves, the demonstrations would not have lasted three months, he said.

He never attended the PAD rallies and the protest leaders had never asked him for advice.

Gen Panlop dismissed any link with the raids on NBT. The PAD protesters also occupied other government agencies before retreating later.

Earlier, deputy government spokesman Natthawut Saikua suggested the raids were connected to former military officers critical of the government.

It was alleged Sqn Ldr Prasong Soonsiri, a former charter writer, and Gen Panlop might be behind the PAD movement. Gen Panlop warned Prime Minister Samak Sundaravej not to impose the emergency decree in order to try to break up the PAD protests. That could easily lead to the situation getting completely out of hand.

Today, Matichon quotes Chamlong as saying that he has received a telephone call from one general who is a true fighter/warrior (เป็นนักรบตัวจริง) who told him that if he was arrested he would immediately replace him. That general is Gen. Panlop. Therefore, PAD supporters you don't need to be afraid.

BP: So surprise Panlop is really involved.

Obviously, being lawyers they are extremely concerned about the PAD not adhering to the temporary injunction issued by the court and want the police to arrest the 9 PAD leaders as the Criminal Court has issued warrants for their arrest.

Well, not so obviously as Matichon reports a Mr. Kanisorn, a representative of the Lawyer's Council of Thailand as saying that in response to the temporary injunction and arrest warrants, he said that PAD's refusal to leave Government House and not allowing the police to arrest the 9 PAD leaders, he does not see this as being illegal as it is resisting and part of politics. Kanison also said than in relation to the 82 who were arrested for the raid of NBT, he is seeking bail for them.

BP: Respect for the Rule of Law and judicial decisions! If his legal analysis is correct and the government is unable to arrest people who occupy government property, refuse to leave, and can resisit arrest for political reasons, isn't parliament then justified in changing the law? Perhaps, Thaksin should return to Thailand and get a group of people to surround him to prevent his arrest as resisting arrest is now legal!

btw, his comments are getting play at The Manager.

Both Nick and Andrew of New Mandala have a new post on PAD Strategy. They look at 4 possible endgames and what is on the PAD's mind. I have briefly summarised/paraphrased the 4 below:

(1) For the king to step into the fray and asks, to guarantee national “reconciliation” among other things, that Samak resign and is replaced with a compromise Prime Minister.

(2) Elements within the PAD may hope that an escalating confrontation could motivate an army faction to mount another “extra-constitutional” intervention: a coup.

(3) The PAD may, more modestly, be hoping to de-stabilise the Samak government sufficiently that its management of the economy and society is brought into further disrepute.

4) Elements within the PAD may also be hoping that a heavy-handed government response to the current protest may provide them with some politically useful symbols of repression (and perhaps even some martyrs) that could be used to invigorate future phases of their campaign.

BP: For (1), the PAD's problem is not with Samak, it is with "Thaksinocracy" (i.e that Thaksin can win elections and that rural people are allowed to vote). Any replacement from PPP will be called a puppet of Thaksin. I am sure the PAD would also turn on Banharn as well if he was to become PM as he also favours amending the Constitution. I really don't understand how this option helps restore "unity" (which is a mere fantasy anyway, but that is a post for another day) as PAD won't be satisifed with the answer of an elected MP as PM. An unelected MP as PM is unlikely to help either if they are subject to control by the current members of the legislature. The coalition has the numbers even if some figurehead is PM. PAD will only be happy if there is no elected parliament. They want to revert to the 70% unelected/30% elected option as it is the only way they will ever hold power.

I think (2) is the the most unlikely and I think it was more hope on PAD's part. Samak and Anupong seem to have a good enough understanding and by all accounts Anupong will continue in his role as Army C-in-C. The Manager today has an expose on the close relationship between Samak-Anupong - no real details or substance, but the intention is clear and that is to criticise Anupong. This is not the first attack on Anupong by The Manager and is unlikely the last.

I think (3) and (4) were the PAD goals that they thought they could realisitically achieved. The problem is they lost the media war in the beginning because of their raid on NBT and how they raided NBT. I think it is likely that some members of the government/security forces had some information, but they couldn't arrest anyone in advance - can you imagine the uproar if they had arrested the 82 before the raid? PAD gambled that the police wouldn't arrest the 82 but they managed to do to arrest them before the PAD reinforcements arrived and the whole plan went astray. I think this was helped as some in government had an inkling on what was going on and decided that catching them in the act was the better option.

I think that PAD underestimated Samak and assumed he would immediately crackdown on the PAD, but Asia Sentinel offers an explanation as to why Samak didn't:

Samak told foreign journalists Tuesday that he would starve the protestors out rather than use force against them. This was a result, he said, of an audience he had with King Bhumibol Adulyadej, who told him to “enforce the law with extreme caution” and to be “soft and gentle.”

The utterances of the king carry strong weight in Thailand and these words can be interpreted as a continued royal endorsement of the Samak government.

BP: Needless to say this also helps a certain mythology....

So says Thanong:

Samak has already become a lame duck prime minister. He has allowed the PAD to capture Government House. He has to hold meetings at the Army headquarters on the Chaeng Wattana Road, 20 kilometres away from downtown Bangkok.

He is looking at ways to strike back at the PAD. But how can he do it?
...
Third, Samak must arrest the core leaders of the PAD, then find a way to quash their supporters inside Government House. This is what he's trying to do. The arrest warrants have been issued for the PAD's leaders. It's now the job of police to try to take these men away in handcuffs.

Fourth, Samak might in the end find it impossible to continue as premier. In this case, he can either resign from office to pave the way for Parliament to form a new government. Or he can dissolve Parliament to call a snap election.
...
Sources say the PAD wants Samak to step down to pave the way for Parliament to form a national government - with an outsider as prime minister. They want a new government to reform the country so it can make a break from "old politics" and the yoke of ousted prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra.

Doing so would require a suspension of some articles in the Constitution.

The question is whether the military would go along with such a game plan. The latest military reshuffle, signed by Samak on Tuesday, has further strengthened Gen Anupong Paochinda, the Army chief, as the most powerful figure in Thailand. Whichever side he picks, that party will win in this power play. But at the moment, it's too hard to read his mind yet.

BP: Hasn't Anupong already decided by not doing anything? The only way for Anupong to act is to stage a coup. Does he really want to do that? His position is secure, why would he do that?

Matichon:

โดยนายสนธิได้ถอดเสื้อผ้าจนเหลือแต่กางเกงในเพียงตัวเดียว จากนั้นนำเสื้อสีเหลืองที่มีข้อความว่า "เราจะสู้เพื่อในหลวง" มาสวมใส่พร้อมกับกางเกงขาสั้น

Sondhi L strips to only his underwear and then got his yellow shirt with the words "we will fight for the King" and puts on his shorts.

BP: The mere thought of it is enough to make me go blind. Enjoy breakfast!

btw, this was in public.

Pornpimol Kanchanalak* in an op-ed in The Nation:

As public sentiment turned increasingly against the PAD, the prime minister did a fine job in reversing the tide. He could not help dwelling on long and winding petty grumbles. He set deadlines that proved unattainable and simply could not back up his tough talk and open threats with needed measures. Without the cooperation of the military, which has shown laudable self-restraint, an incredible sense of latitude and timing, there is little chance, if any, that the police could go it alone successfully, risking blood on the their hands and in the streets. Taking out the key PAD leaders could prove as catastrophic for the authorities as hitting a wasps' nest, as was the case in May 1992. Once again, the prime minister humiliated himself in front of our eyes. Once again, we were reminded of all the things that are wrong with the people at the helm, and why the PAD came to be.

BP: So now he is too weak? Yet she thinks the military has shown laudable self-restraint? She hasn't said what Samak should have done.

* I am just waiting for her to write about campaign finance, lobbying, or business and politics - see here and much more in this PDF - Court of Appeal decision here. She only mentions pork-barrel projects and well she should know!

... well this was what Abhisit was trying to do the other day, but Thai Rath reports Deputy Leader Korn (yes, shadow Finance Minister and JP Morgan Korn) went last night to Government House to provide moral support to the PAD protesters. Korn said he went in a personal capacity and it was a peaceful protest so why can't they protest?

BP: I imagine the PPP will raise this.

AP:

"We will not allow police to arrest our leaders," protest organizer Samran told the cheering crowd. "If the police want to arrest them, come here and do so, or if they want our leaders to give themselves up that is fine, but the government has to resign first."
...
"If we leave before this government resigns, that means we are defeated," Chamlong said.

BP: Will they change their mind?

The Post has saved me. They have an article looking at a wide range of Thai language papers:

Krungthep Thurakij’s editorial said the incident in which PAD protestors broke into the NBT TV station’s building should not have happened under no circumstances.

No matter how biased the TV channel has been and how much the protesters disliked it, it was not justifiable to use such violent approach. Violence was the wrong choice and would make the situation even worse.

Apart from the NBT incident, the other moves of the PAD to lay siege to several other governmental offices yesterday appeared rather violent. Instead of gaining more support from the public, such violent acts of the PAD could lead to a rise in negative feeling against it.

All the same, Prime Minister Samak Sundaravej’s announcement to use tough measures to disperse the PAD protestors was tantamount to adding fuel to fire. The government might be able to control of the situation but that would not be the end of conflicts.

The use of force to contain the PAD would result in widening the rift between two political camps in this society. Both the PAD and the government should be reminded about the past lesson learned from the Sept 19, 2006 military coup and stop considering using violence against each other.

BP: Oh come on. Samak said there were measures that could be used. As it is the level of restraint shown by the government has been remarkable. Then again, it is Krungthep Turakit. The protesters can say there forever so providing all opportunities for the protesters to leave is what the government should and is doing - midnight negotiations and then again at 3am.

Article continues:

Kae Roi Karn Muang, another column in Krungthep Thurakij pointed out that the best solution should be that the PAD agrees to stop the movements while Mr Samak should resign. After that, a new prime minister should be selected from the coalition parties.

BP: And the PAD will stop protesting then? The new PM will be called a puppet of Thaksin.

Article continues:

Why did the PAD decide to give the government final ultimatum? The main analysis run on the front page of Post Today said the PAD must realise that Mr Samak would call House dissolution and then push to amend the constitution while being the interim government.

The PAD must have evaluated that if it let that happen, former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra would have a high chance to rise to power again after the new election that his party would win again.

To arrest the five leaders of the PAD might not be difficult but to do so would cause the government to fall in to a trap that could result in the fall of the government. To pressure Mr Samak to resign seemed impossible as well.

BP: This is why the government must be careful. Samak is known to delegate and this time has put the former police chief and current Interior Minister Kowit in control. Giving the judicial route and seeking arrest warrants - they could arrest on the spot given the nature of the offence - and seeking a court order

Article continues:

Another piece of opinions in Post Today criticised PAD leader Suriyasai Kataksila for lying that the about 80 men who covered their faces and broke into the NBT channel building were not from the PAD. His tale has drawn negative feeling against the PAD.

BP: As the Bangkok Post notes The Manager website and Chamlong both mentioned they were PAD persons. I thought they would deny it, but it seems not everyone was on the same page on what was happening or what to deny.

Article continues:

Matichon’s also agreed that the NBT incident caused the PAD to loose credit to some extent. The PAD’s promise to maintain peace in the fight against the government was already broken.

On the other hand, a veteran politician like Mr Samak would never fall into the PAD’s trap. He would continue to be patient to win in the end, whereas the PAD would end up being considered a villain.

BP: So when will these people stop underestimating Samak?

Article continues:

Thai Rath described the current situation as a game of who makes the first move would lose. It was referring to that any side ever lose its patience first would become the looser in this confrontation.

BP: I disagree. If the police after continued negotiations try to arrest to the PAD leaders is this the first move?

Article continues:

Kom Chad Luek’s analysis said the PAD has a higher risk of loosing the game with Mr Samak was likely to pretend to stay calm and continue ignoring the PAD. And if the PAD decides to use violence first, it could end up being regarded as rebellion.

BP: Why being cool was the better option and why I think PAD underestimated Samak?

Article continues:

Thai Post said the PAD had good reason to give the government an ultimatum, despite saying that it could not agree with the act of breaking into the NBT channel building. The newspapers cited several reasons why the government should go including causing the country to lose territorial sovereignty over the Preah Vihear temple land and attempting to exonerate Mr Thaksin.

The newspapers also raised doubts if the 80 men breaking into the NBT channel office were really from the PAD or not.

BP: And now you know Thai Post is called anti-government?

Article continues:

Naew Na said the time for the Samak government was being counted down and if it was tempted to use violence to deal with the PAD, it time would run out even faster. However, if the government did not anything with the PAD, it would not be able to govern the country.

BP: Catch-22.

No-one could accuse the Thai print media of being pro-government.

Newley has an audio slide show of the PAD protests. He also comments:

People at the event who I talked to said they want Samak to resign, and they want Thaksin — who has fled to England — to return to Thailand to face corruption charges.

BP: The photos catch the typical mood at a PAD rally. They attract people as it is a bit of fun although the rhetoric is certainly often extreme. This is why I think the protests were devastating for the PAD as a movement. I see it hard for them to be seen as anything other than a fringe group now.

Thai Rath reports that this evening the court has issued an order must remove their stage and leave Government House. The order comes into effect immediately.

Developing...

The rationale for ending the protest:

Government Spokesman Wichianchote Sukchotrat said Wednesday that protesters would be removed from Government House compound before sunset.

He was speaking to reporters at the Supreme Command at 5 pm.

He said thousands of 191 commando police and border patrol police would be deployed to force the protesters out of Government House.

He said police would first try to talk to the protesters to convince them to voluntarily leave the compound or else they would be forced out.

The spokesman said the protest inside Government House needs to be ended Wednesday as the government would have to use the place for ceremony of From Mother Day to Father Day.

He said His Royal Highness Crown Prince Maha Vajiralongkorn will chair the ceremony inside Government House on Saturday to grant royal flags for government agencies to use as part of the celebrations.

The spokesman said the authorities need to prepare the place two days before the ceremony on Saturday.

BP: Matichon had an article earlier in the day about the Crown Prince attending a ceremony. It was arranged before the protests started - dated correspondence was mentioned.

Bloomberg:

The heads of the People's Alliance for Democracy won't turn themselves in to police, said Amorn Amornrattananon, a group leader, on Channel 3 television station. They've been charged with four counts, including treason, which carries either a death sentence or life in prison, according to a court statement.

``It is not necessary to arrest them today because they are still sitting in the middle of the crowd,'' Police General Vichien Potphosri, deputy national police chief, said by phone after the warrants were issued. ``We are looking for a more peaceful way, but at least we have the warrants in hand.''

Spending a second day at army headquarters, Samak called their demands for his resignation ``unreasonable'' and said police will be ``soft and gentle'' to the demonstrators.
...
``It is quite an honor to be charged with treason,'' said Amorn. ``I want to force out this bad government.''
...
Samak, who accused protest leaders of trying to provoke violence, instructed police to prevent supporters from bringing food and water to the demonstrators, while allowing people to leave the compound freely. This afternoon protesters could still access food and people were joining the protests, said Parnthep Pongpourpan, a group spokesman.

The protesters ``want anyone to stop them to make a spark,'' Samak told international journalists yesterday evening in a rare English-language news briefing. ``They want bloodshed in the country. They want the military to come out and stage the coup again.''
...
Thailand's army chief ruled out a coup and allowed state-run NBT television to broadcast from its headquarters yesterday after protesters seized control of NBT's office.

``I'm just really struck by Samak's restraint as it shows he's got a lot of confidence,'' said Jacob Ramsay, Southeast Asia analyst at Control Risks Group in Singapore. ``The game seems to be up for the People's Alliance. They'll lose a lot of momentum if their leaders are arrested.''

BP: Police General Vichien Potphosri, deputy national police chief, is quoted in Matichon as saying that Samak has ordered the dispersal of the mob by tonight to enable time to prepare for the Crown Prince's attendance at Government House on Saturday.

Absolutely Bangkok is live-blogging.

According to Thai Rath and Matichon, the Court has approved nine arrest warrants* for PAD leaders/personnel. The charges include "rebellion" for trying to overthrow the government (carries a death sentence), conspiracy, and host of other charges. The police have prepared paddy wagons. Pol. Gen. (retired) Kowit, Interior Minister, issues a final call for PAD to leave Government House.

*Suriyasi, Sondhi L, Pipop, Chamlong, Somkriat, Somsak and three others (7. นายชัยวัฒน์ สินสุวงศ์ 8. นายอมร อมรรัตนานนท์ และ 9. นายเทิดภูมิ ใจดี)

BP: One would think that the police would arrest them sometime tonight.

The Manager refers to the government as the "police state".

The Manager also has a story with a quote from the current Air Force Chief ACM Chalit who states in Thai:

กล่าวว่า สถานการณ์ชุมนุมของกลุ่มพันธมิตรฯ ที่ค่อนข้างจะเกินขอบเขตของกฎหมายในขณะนี้ เชื่อว่าในการแก้ไขปัญหาของรัฐบาลและผู้ที่เกี่ยวข้อง จะไม่ใช้ความรุนแรงเข้าไปทำร้ายประชาชน ขณะเดียวกัน ผู้ที่อาสาเข้ามาบริหารประเทศ ก็ต้องนำหลักทศพิธราชธรรมเข้ามาบริหารบ้านเมือง ขณะที่กลุ่มพันธมิตรฯ ก็ต้องหยุดคิดและทบทวน เพื่อไม่ให้บ้านเมืองเกิดความเสียหายไปมากกว่านี้ ทั้งนี้ ยืนยันว่าทหาร จะยืนเคียงข้างประชาชน และจะไม่ทำการปฏิวัติแน่

Summarised translation: The acts of PAD are somewhat beyond the law. He believes that authorities will not use force and that the government needs to be virtuous. The military will stand on the side of the people and will not stage a coup.

BP: Given ACM Chalit is meant to be on the outer of the Samak-Anupong alliance so this is interesting. What does standing on the side of the people mean? Standing on side of the government who were elected? Or arbitrarily deciding what the people want?

that PAD's activities are is most likely

Bangkok University surveyed 1,023 people in Bangkok yesterday about the PAD protests. Below is a summary of the poll results (I missed out only one question):

1. Do you agree with closing of the roads to force out the government? 13.8% agree, 72.6% disagree and 13.8% have no opinion.

2. Do you agree with the seizing of NBT? 14.8% agree, 70.8% disagree, and 14.4% have no opinion.

3. Do you agree with the seizing of Government House? 16.9% agree, 68.3% disagree, and 14.8% have no opinion.

4. Do you agree with the police to take action against the 5 PAD leaders? 42.8% agree, 31.7% disagree, and 25.5% have no opinion.

5. Do you think it is time to declare a state of emergency? 46.9% say not yet, 27.6% say and 25.5% have no opinion.

6. What action do you want the military to take? 51.8% say join with the police to control the situation, 38.4% say stay neutral and stay put, 4.5% say stage a coup, and 5.3% gave other responses.

7. What do you want the government to do? 34.9% say continue administering the country, and 65.1% want a change (33.3% want a new election, 17% want the PM to resign, 14.8% want the Cabinet to resign).

BP: Would be interesting to see a poll of the whole country. Nothing too surprising really based on people I have spoken to and the result of 7 might indicate that the PAD have achieved their goal, but then again I imagine the result in the North and the Northeast would be somewhat different - although the change of wanting the Cabinet to resign doesn't mean much as the government could appoint the same people to different positions.

A later poll would be interesting as not many people might have seen all the coverage by the time they were surveyed yesterday.

The Economist has a mainly background article: Key excerpt:

With not much sign of compromise so far, there is not only the risk of bloody clashes between the PAD and the police, there is also the danger that Mr Thaksin’s supporters will hit the streets to attack his opponents. There was a foretaste of this in late July when Thaksin fans armed with clubs and axes attacked a demonstration by his opponents in the north-eastern city of Udon Thani, injuring around a dozen. Unsurprisingly, Thailand’s stockmarket and currency have wilted in the heat of a conflict that shows no sign of ending.

BP: Thai media reported yesterday that some PPP MPs had received angry calls particularly from the Northeast that the government was not doing more. Maew has more on the outrage by some anti-PAD groups. I think the government can pacify these groups with the prize of the arrested PAD leaders in a jailcell - that is assuming the court approves the arrest warrants. Given that the UDD leaders were not immediately granted bail, I can't see how the court can grant bail to the PAD leaders. Actually, one of the charges the 5 PAD leaders is facing is "rebellion"(ข้อหากบฏ) which is a serious criminal offence. I don't imagine the 5 PAD leaders will surrender, but the government can't back down either.

The police have filed an urgent request with the court to issue arrest warrants for the 5 PAD leaders, but in addition, they have sought an injunction against the PAD occupation of Government House:

Police have petitioned the Civil Court to issue an injunction for the People's Alliance for Democracy to move out of the Government House, police deputy spokesman Suraphol Thuanthong said on Wednesday.

The injunction is being sought in the same manner that the Ratchawinit School successfully sought the judicial intervention to force the PAD to relocate its rally site, Suraphol said.

More court action:

PM's Secretariat office will file complaint with Civil Court against protesters' occupations of the Government's compound.

Loiluen Bunnag, deputy secretary general of the premier said his official will field the complain with the court at 1pm.

He said the protesters have caused damages to the Government House which is an official venue.

It is not unclear whether he will seek compensation from the protesters.

BP: On one hand this just sounds plain weird as there is a law about interfering in the work of government employees and trespass, but I would imagine the rationale is that once the court issues an order and/or injunction, the police can enforce this and say all we are doing is following the judiciary.

Not The Nation on the PAD protests:

“The mob is the most sacred body in the country,” Sonthi told a crowd of 30,000. “This body, this mob, with the King as head, must always be respected. We all must protect and uphold the mob, we must never stop believing in the principles of the mob! ”

He continued: “Without the mob, Thailand is nothing! If we do not follow the rule of mob, there will be order. And when there is order, laws will break out. Which in turn could lead to progress! As long as we maintain the rule of mob, we will never have to worry about progress.”

Then, this gem:

Citing the need to preserve the constitutional monarchy under His Majesty the King, some 600 members of the People’s Alliance for Democracy stormed the embassy of the Republic of France this morning. Climbing over the fences and overpowering the guards, the PAD entered the actual embassy building at around 8:45 AM, overturning desks and breaking windows.

“The French influence must be removed from Thailand at once,” declared PAD leader Sonthi Limthongkul. “Since 1789, they have advocated dangerous and anti-Thai ideas about Republicanism, as well as violently overthrown the sovereignty of their king, Louis XVI.”

The French Ambassador, speaking by telephone from his office where he was barricaded behind several locked doors, expressed surprise at the attack, and insisted that the French presence in Thailand was not related to a secret conspiracy to declare Thailand a republic. However, the PAD rejected this as “propaganda from another Thaksin crony” and said that their siege would continue until the French renounced their “corrupt populist” ideas of liberté, egalité, and fraternité.

BP: Then again storming NBT seemed unthinkable. I hope the frogs have some guards today as the PAD might need to rely on the saving-the-monarchy card to save themselves.

Even The Nation struggles to blame Samak.

Page 1 Comment:

Thailand returned to the brink yesterday, and this time we cannot say it was because of a belligerent prime minister blinded by power or irrational mobs armed with clubs and stones. The socalled "D-Day" of the People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD) began badly at dawn, and when darkness fell, threats of violence were more real than ever.

The question is who should take the blame if blood is spilled, if Thais again resort to killing Thais. With most, if not all, key contentious political issues now in the hands of the courts, the PAD's highly provocative action yesterday was completely uncalled for. The group's actions - including briefly seizing control of a television station, invading government offices and occupying Government House - belied the PAD's own claims of nonviolence.
...
We can only pray it was a mere slip, and in the end good sense will once again prevail. The Samak government's response to the high-tension chaos was commendable, and the prime minister for once refrained from being his own belligerent self. But despite yesterday evening's superficial calm at Government House and Samak's unusual composure, threats of violence remained very real last night.

Politically, the PAD went too far. Democratically, the movement got too far ahead of itself. The danger of all of this is simply violence that could spiral out of hand, which could then destroy the very things the PAD has pledged to serve and protect.

Tulsie:

Yesterday changed things. While we can live with traffic nightmares or disruption of school routines, we cannot call seizing a TV station, intimidating news anchors and paralysing public works a non-violent campaign for democracy. Nor was it a show of civil disobedience, because the much-acclaimed political practice isn't supposed to harm or terrorise innocent people doing their jobs.

Morally, it was not right. Politically, it was foolish. For once, Prime Minister Samak Sundaravej looked a calm and reasonable leader on TV as he pleaded for the public not to lend support to the rampaging PAD. That is not surprising, because the more belligerence the PAD exhibited, the more sympathy would shift to him. All he needed to do was hold back his usual urge to spew venom. If he can do that he will win this very crucial round.
...
They have to be careful not to blur the sense of political decency. If the public is to condone the seizure of the National Broadcasting Television, some of whose terrified staff fled through windows, society will be locked in a moral dilemma. What if, say, a newspaper office was besieged like The Nation was a couple of years ago? Or there is an eruption of violence like when PAD members were assaulted in Udon Thani recently?

BP: You know things are going well for Samak when The Nation can't find something to criticise. The police must appear to exhaust all efforts before using force. PAD's fatal flaw was raiding NBT. The media don't like it when you attack their own.

Bangkok Post:

Academics have suggested mediators be appointed to try to solve the deadlock between the government and the People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD). Senior military officers should act as go-betweens, as they have the respect of both sides, said Wanchai Wattanasap, director of the King Prajadhipok Institute's Centre for Peace and Governance.

He said the government's refusal to listen to the PAD, whose supporters are mostly educated people, had inflamed the situation to the current point of it being hard to reach a compromise.

He was, however, optimistic that violence can be avoided so long as the government does not counter the PAD's demonstrations by involving the pro-government United Front for Democracy against Dictatorship (UDD).

Mr Wanchai warned the government against resorting to violent means to quell the protest, saying that it could worsen the situation and provoke more people to join the rally.

BP: I agree on the UDD issue, but on the government listening. The government has listened or at least heard what PAD want and that was the election where representatives throughout the country were elected and formed the government. I really don't get why the government must do anything that PAD wants.

Should Thaksin get his followers to seize the courthouse and if the judges refuse to listen - ie unilaterally acquit him of all charges - should we then blame the court for inflaming the situation?

The article continues:

Political scientist Prayad Hongthongkham said the situation was worrisome. He blamed the government for allowing the PAD's street rally to go on for too long, instead of negotiating with the demonstrators from the start.

The former dean of Chulalongkorn University's political science faculty is of the view that the government allowed the PAD to seize the National Broadcasting Services of Thailand Television (NBT) station and key state agencies yesterday so that they could later launch legal action against the alliance's five core leaders.

Arrest warrants for the five leaders of the PAD are reportedly due to be issued today.

Mr Prayad said peaceful compromise was almost impossible now that Prime Minister Samak Sundaravej has threatened such legal action, and the PAD cannot risk lose its supporters' trust by giving in to the government.

BP: Negotiation? They want something (Samak and Cabinet to resign) and the government is not going to give it to them. It is a political decision and voters at the next election can decide. I don't really see what there is to negotiate about.

Video of Samak's "press conference" around 3pm, flanked by the Cabinet, is available here.

BP: He is defiant as always although won't answer any questions. He later gives a press conference and answers questions from the foreign media and after the press conference slips out the down to avoid the Thai media.

NOTE: Thai journalists did hear the foreign press conference, but there was no separate press conference in Thai.

BP: Some video of the initial seize by the hooded PAD security forces is here - fairly tame as it was 5:30am and so few staff. A NBT cameraman followed them around, but you can't see who they are as they have covered up their face, but NBT staff have stated they were threatened when the camera was off and some received some injuries - see NBT video here. NBT staff said they initially thought they were undercover police by the way they were dressed and giving orders. One had some form of a badge and they had walkie-talkies.

Absolutely Bangkok comments:

9.30 pm: Criminals PAD? “Recaptured” NBT shows footage of confiscated weapons and masked PAD thugs destroying government property. So much about the waning goodwill for the PAD? These images work. According to Thai media reports some 80 arrested persons are charged with various offenses and denied bail.

BP: I can only guess the initial group were there to prepare the way for the PAD protesters who came later that morning - hoping that the police would leave them be, but a couple of police were already downstairs and after reinforcements arrived, arrested them before the second wave of a couple of yellow shirts showed up that morning.

PAD seem to admit that they were PAD guys, but deny that there were any weapons as Maew reports:

According to my mom who watched ASTV at home, the biggest failure today is when Chamlong demanaded that the 82 guys who has been arrested at NBT to be released by the police. According to many reports, they have been arrested and detained at with charges. Despite not knowing who they guys really were, Chamlong’s televised announcement and the siege of the Police HQ today is a sign that the government wants. This is a total acceptance that the group did not respect scale of non-violence protest and miserably failed to control the crowd. Chamlong earlier maintained that those people ’s weapons such as golf clubs and firearms had been staged by the police and that any violence actions may came from anti-PADs or government supporter impersonating as PADs. Yet, his demand for them to be released cause such unconfident among people in general (who already felt their rights to live as usual had been violated.)

BP: Chamlong threatened to seige Police HQ unless they were released - surely a tacit admission they were PAD.

I'll use this post for the rest of the day. Latest updates (Thailand time) at the top.

22:45pm Samak as the Bangkok Post reports:

Prime Minister Samak Sundaravej said he has ordered the arrest of five leaders of the People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD) that led protesters to lay siege on Government House and government ministries Tuesday morning.
...
Meanwhile, deputy police spokesman Surapon Thuanthong said police will ask for approval of arrest warrants for the PAD core leaders on Wednesday.

AFP:

"Police will use all means to restore normalcy as soon as possible," Samak said in a televised address to the nation. "Police will take decisive action against the protesters ... government restraint is almost over.

"I ask all the protesters who have been blockading or occupying government offices that you still have a chance to withdraw and go back to your homes."
...
Samak, who has appointed Interior Minister Kowit Wattana to oversee the police operation, said he would not step aside and played down rumours of another coup.

"I will not resign, I will stay to protect this country," Samak said.

"The military will not allow the protesters to take control of the country. However, it is not the time yet for military force," he added.

BP: A bit of rhetoric to reassure the masses.

PAD are being defiant:

At Government House, which houses the prime minister's office, the leader of the People's Alliance, Sonthi Limthongkul, a publisher and businessman who has feuded with Thaksin, responded with defiant words of his own.

"I won't leave until there is a political change," he said. "If you want me to leave, you will have to kill me and take my body out of here."

BP: The Manager quotes Sondhi as telling supporters there was a high chance that they would be arrested tomorrow and not granted bail.

Some videos to come.


22:15pm Via Absolutely Bangkok is Crispin's latest article on the protests:

It also ominously points to splits inside the military, with camps divided between those who support and oppose Prime Minister Samak Sundaravej, who serves concurrently as defense minister. Samak has reached an accommodation with top-ranking military leaders, including army commander General Anupong Paochinda and First Army commander Prayuth Chan-ocha, but a hardline camp has reportedly refused to fall in step.

A group of these officers reportedly called for Samak's resignation when the violence reached a crescendo early in the afternoon, according to a well-placed government source who spoke on condition of anonymity with Asia Times Online. Samak told reporters he had no intention of stepping down or declaring an emergency decree, adding that street protesters who broke the law would face arrest.

BP: Interesting that little tidbit. I imagine it is the Air Force Chief and Navy Chief, but Samak knows that the important people really are Prayuth and Anupong. Given the annual military reshuffle list was discussed today, one could imagine that some people are losing out and the Air Force Chief and Navy Chief are the likely losers.

There is no benefit for Samak to declare a state of emergency or martial law. While he might face some criticism within his own party and supporters for not taking stronger action, he can't but win praise for keeping a cool head. There might be some short time mutters, but the only way to bring down his government is an over reaction by the security forces and you can be sure Samak will be blamed particularly by the print media who would then say he has lost legitimacy. While criticism is still being directed at the PAD, the government can continue the go-slow approach although that can't last forever if they fail to leave.

Are they media really going to criticise Samak for being cool-headed?

btw, Samak is still being criticised. In a press conference earlier today, he said the "media need to choose which side they are on and they can't stay in the middle". It was a poor choice of words, but his other wording on whether they would continue to support the PAD or not (which seems to be the point he was making) is a valid point, but I think the answer has been clear today and that is the universal condemnation and the criticism directed at PAD by the media, particularly the storming of NBT and preventing them from airing of NBT. Another well-known journalist, Kitti, was also attacked. The friends of PAD are keeping very quiet today.

The article continues:

According to a source in the Prime Minister's Office, one of the protesters who stormed the National Broadcasting Television was in possession of a gun. "If this is true, this could represent a case of treason," the official said. He said officials had established a "war room" to counter the attacks and "preserve democracy". The official also said they were trying to get in touch with US ambassador Eric John, who they hoped to put on national television condemning the PAD's attacks.

BP: At least one gun has been shown on Thai TV.

The article continues:

With his departure and potentially diminished wealth, many believed the country was on the verge of a political reordering where a camp of 100 or so members of parliament inside the ruling People's Power Party, led by provincial powerbroker and until now strong Thaksin ally Newin Chidchob, might be tempted to break away and form a new coalition government led by the opposition Democrat Party. A source near the leadership of the Democrat Party recently told Asia Times Online that party officials were exploring that possibility, which appealed because Newin's political following is in Thaksin's stronghold northeastern region.

BP: I have no doubt the Democrats are exploring it as it is the only way they can ever get back into government, but would Thaksin give the seal of approval? I don't think so as he has family members in the other faction. No seal of approval and Newin's factions numbers would drop and weaken the position they would hold in any possible government.

The PAD has a love-hate relationship with the Democrats dating to run-ins and libel law suits the party filed in the past against the street movement's media baron leader, Sondhi Limthongkul. Despite the PAD's role in keeping pressure on Samak's government, the Democrats' recent overtures towards PAD-nemesis Newin would presumably leave the protest movement's leaders and associates outside of any future non-Thaksin-aligned government.

BP: The Democrats have to walk a thin line of trying to get the anti-Thaksin PAD vote, but not appearing to be as extreme as the PAD. You could imagine elements of the Democrats defecting if they joined up with Newin and just mere talk of it opens up the opportunity for a more pure anti-Thaksin party which hurts the Democrats.

The article continues:

It's unclear if the PAD leadership, including Sondhi, intended for the protests to spin so wildly out of control. Many analysts have speculated that the PAD had stepped up its protests in recent weeks to potentially lure security forces into a crackdown and amid the chaos a military seizure of political power take place - a scenario apparently favored by some military hardliners, but opposed by Anupong and Prayuth, who have top authority over Bangkok's security.

What is known is that the PAD has powerful backing from a hardline faction inside the military that lost out at last year's reshuffle, which most significantly saw the promotion of Anupong over the ambitious General Saprang Kalayanamitr. A key player in the 2006 coup that ousted Thaksin, Saprang has been quoted in the local press as saying that he personally has given orders to the PAD.

BP: Nice fellow, that hero. You can see how far PAD have fallen. The key military personnel are with Samak.

The article continues:

There is no evidence that he or other military figures played any role in stoking Tuesday's violence, but there are worrying indications that a hardline military camp may bid to capitalize on the chaos and its aftermath at more moderate military rivals' expense.

The breakdown in public order notably comes on the eve of a highly anticipated military reshuffle, which was reportedly already completed and expected to be announced in the coming weeks.

Anupong is widely expected to preserve his army commander post, but there have been grumbles inside the rank-and-file that he hasn't played a more assertive political role in the de facto joint premiership he has established with Samak.

The PAD's attacks on government buildings have clearly weakened his hand and will provide ammunition for hardliners to take up other pivotal command posts, including perhaps a break-up of Prayuth's unbroken chain of command over Bangkok through his Pre-Cadet Academy Class 12 allies over the 1st and 2nd Infantry Divisions and the 2nd and 4th Cavalry.
...
The all-important wild card is the royal household, which by law is above Thai politics. The highly revered King Bhumibol Adulyadej has on at least two nationally televised occasions endorsed Samak and his administration, notably on the eve of a previous PAD-declared "doomsday". Anupong and Prayuth are also both known to have close personal ties with Queen Sirikit.

While the PAD has consistently claimed its movement aims above all at protecting the monarchy from usurping politicians, its attacks on Tuesday on government buildings which bear royal insignia make those claims as doubtful as its eponymous commitment to democracy.

BP: I agree with Crispin and it has been a theme of his recently of the loss of PAD's support from the military and royal circles. Just look at their numbers today compared with 2006.

21:15pm Kom Chad Luek reports that the 82 persons arrested in the storming of NBT have been charged with 6 offences and the court has denied bail. 25 weapons were found including 3 guns - MCOT says they were .45 mm. I have seen knives and golf clubs and various other smaller weapons.

I should note that according to NBT presenters a number of things were stolen from the building, particularly LCD TVs. Most of the damage was not severe - from initial reports are police are checking the building.

Some of the pushback from PAD has been that they were government agents or the government planted the weapons. I heard a police officer on TV say there were many cameras (unsure whether referring to CCTV or police brought there own - actually it is reasonably common on raids) and witnesses so we will see what evidence is released and/or what the courts decide.

21:00pm Back... More updates soon

18:00pm I have listened to Samak's press conference earlier today. The chances of him resigning seem so remote. He shows no sign of backing down.

This seems a provocative move:

The People's Alliance for Democracy moved its protesters from NBT Channel to Government House at 5 pm.

The NBT stopped occupying the NBT head office apparently after it failed to block NBT from airing its programmes from somewhere else and the PAD failed to hack through security system of the station to relay signal from ASTV as initially planned.

BP: This was after the police gave a 6pm deadline. One might call it the sending of reinforcements.

Senior police have stated they have made contact with the PAD leaders, but have received no response.


17:45pm Matichon reports that Samak will hold a press conference for foreign journalists at 6pm. It also quotes a police spokesman as saying there is a 6pm deadline for the evacuation of Government House.

BP: Is it only foreign journalists?

17:00pm Matichon reports that Midnight University (not an actual university, but a group of academics) have issued a statement saying that the PAD must respect the rights of others. It also has the fuller statement of what Samak said if anyone wants to translate it although The Nation has most of it here. Interior Minister Kowit has been tasked to handle the PAD protests.

Matichon also reports that police are preparing to arrest the 5 PAD leaders

The Nation reports that Sondhi L (PAD leader) declares victory.

The Nation reports that Interior Minister Kowit Watana has ordered police to evict protesters from Government House compound by 6 pm, a well-informed source.

TOC have slightly different information:

The National Police Office has announced that the PAD protesters has until 6 p.m. today to evacuate Government House. The police have threatened to arrest the protesters if they fail to follow the request peacefully.

BP: I think the TOC version sounds more likely so a 6pm deadline it is. I can't see PAD complying given their rhetoric so what will the police do then?

16:15pm Thai Rath reports the 3 main media organsiations of Thailand has issued a joint statement expressing their anger in regards to what happened at NBT earlier today and stating that the media's right to present news should not be impeded.

BP: Also, Samak is meant to hold another press conference this evening.

Matichon reports that the police chief and Interior Minister Kowit (former police chief) met and the police chief is going to suggest to the government that they should negotiate with the PAD.

BP: Predictable because PAD will say "no" so the governent can say they tried.

15:30 pm Samak speaks:

Prime Minister Samak Sundaravej threatened to take legal actions against protests but stopped short of declaring the state of emergency.

Matichon also quotes him as saying that the PAD didn't do as they said and they have stopped government agencies working. He also calls them of acting without reason and asks all people to go home. PPP MP Pracha (leader of anti-PAD protests earlier this year) says the anti-PAD groups will gather at 6pm at Sanam Luang.

Surayasai (PAD leaders) say the protests will go on for 3 days.

The Nation:

By 2.00 pm on Tuesday, protesters led by the People's Alliance for Democracy have managed to occupy many key installations and shut down works.

Protesters are now inside Government House, the Education Ministry, the Transport Ministry, the Agriculture Ministry, the Finance Ministry. They are rallying in front of the Energy Ministry.

They have taken complete control of two broadcasting stations of NBT Channel located on Vibhavadi Road and Phetchaburi Road respectively.

As time permits, I will update throughout the day For other coverge, Absolutely Bangkok is live-blogging, Maew has some updates and pictures.

For some blog comment, see Jotman, Bangkok Bugle, and Thailand Jumped the Shark.

Matichon reports that Gen. Anupong (Arm C-in-C), Gen. Boonsrang (Supreme Commander), Pol. Gen. Pol. Gen. Patcharavat Wongsuwan (Police Chief), Prayuth (Army First Region Commander - First Region includes Bangkok), and Theerapol (Samak's key aide) are meeting at the Air Force HQ to discuss the PAD protests. It notes that the Air Force Chief and Navy Chief did not attend or have any representatives present:

BP: A hint of the reshuffle?

The same Matichon article also has the first Samak comment who only states that the government is still safe (รัฐบาลยังปลอดภัย).

BP: I wonder for how long Samak can bite his tongue.

UPDATE: For updates see below

... but stunts like this won't help:

Electricity at NBT cut off, all broadcast programmes suspended

Protesters led by People's Alliance for Democracy managed to break police corridor to enter compound of the National Broadcasting Television on Vipavadi Rangsit Road on Tuesday.

Some 2,000 protesters pushed the entrance gate where police line tried to push back. Finally the protesters managed to push down the gate and entered the compound.

The electricity was cut off, resulting in all programmes to be suspended at 8.30am.

NBT station's acting director Suriyong Huntasarn said the protesters are now in the station's compound but has not yet entered the buildings.

Suriyong said most of the station's staffs already left the station.

The protesters started gathering in front of the station at about 6am, making police to seal off some roads leading to the station.

Suriyong said it was not the station that cut off the electricity. He is talking with police in order to control the situation.

Earlier protesters block entrance of National Broadcasting Telelvision station on Vipavadi Rangsit Road on Tuesday.

Police detained on Tuesday a group of protesters who tried to seize an NBT television station on on Vipavadi Rangsit Road.

The attempt took place at about 5.30am when there are a few staffs of the NBT at that moment.

The group, comprising about 60 men, covered their faces with black pieces of cloths and dressed in black t-shirt and jeans.

Two NBT television hosts said in a news television programme at about 6.10am that police found a handgun and long knives from the group.

The group also broke a glass door in their way to go to the station's building. They separated into several groups and went into the station. NBT staffs were told to leave the office.

Police are interrogating the group. Police brought the protesters who had weapons into 3 trucks to a police station while searching for protesters who might hide in the office.

Main protest will go to the Government House where Samak Cabinet will meet in its weekly meeting.

BP: Are they worried that PPP won't win and so there is no longer the Thaksin scapegoat? NBT stations in the provinces have apparently been seized. Next, they want to raid police HQ (or is it The Nation going overboard with their headline?). Then, you also have this:

About 1,000 protesters led by the People's Alliance for Democracy have shut down traffic on Phetkasem Road at Ta Sae district, Chumphon disrupting the transportation between Bangkok and the South.

Protesters were reportedly mobilised from many southern provinces, including Chumphon, Krabi, Nakhon Si Thammarat. They have vowed to block the traffic until the government resigned.

Police have directed vehicles to use alternative routes.

Another group of PAD-led protesters are seen congregating at Bang Saphan district, causing concern that they might be planning to put up additional road block which, if happens, will completely cut off traffic to and from the capital.

BP: Let me guess, the PAD didn't attend the "winning-the-hearts-and-minds" lesson. Even for the PAD who are usually very discplined for a Thai mob, I am failing to see how they can benefit from this. Tolerance in many sectors was wearing thin with their continued disruption of traffic yet not seemingly being able to achieve anything. Seizing a TV station and trying to seal off the capital is taking things too far. If ever, and no doubt he wants to, Samak can use the police to break up the protests, he can now do so. Look for some negotiations first to strengthen police claims they did everything possible, but the government tipping point has almost certainly been breached.

I'll try to update as time permits. Any interesting news stories/photos post in the comments.

UPDATE: AA has a good comment with some more details:

I've been watching Thai television and even TPBS sounds a bit ticked off at PAD.

NBT are trying to rebroadcast from mobile units at Bor Kor 02. Chamlong and the PAD at Makkawan Bridge are saying wait 4 hours for more good news. Sondhi is also at Makkawan Bridge.

Provincial PAD units have shut down some roads at Km.492 in Chumporn, Route 111 in Phichit, and Route 2 near Lam Thakong in Korat. Reporters have asked when they will allow traffic to pass, and the reply is: "when Bangkok tells us to".

PAD have also began moving to the National Police HQ, they have surrounded Gov't House, but the government have been silent and have almost allowed them to lay siege to Gov't House, various ministries including Agriculture, Education, Finance, and Transport.

Samak and the Cabinet are meeting at a new location (the combined Military HQ, not Army HQ) where the top generals are also discussing the events. Apparently Samak is not stressed.

Earlier, the deputy Gov't spokesman claimed involvement from a general "who likes to discuss assassinations" and another bigwig. So far, he has been the only one to come out and speak for the Gov't. He says the gov't is prepared to use the "ultimate strategy" of arrest... The Police have also come out to say they will prosecute anyone who breaks the law and refrain from violence.

We shall see how this unfolds, but it doesn't look good for PAD or commuters, unless the government manages to do something even uglier than what the PAD has managed.

BP: That general who likes to discuss assassinations is Gen. Panlop. No dbout that former Foreign Minister and Thaksin nemesis (from the beginning) Prasong Sonnsiri and other Chamlong classmates are involved.

11:00 am Thai Rath reports that PAD said that if they will go to Police HQ, they will not just stay outside, they will go inside too. Police say that PAD are in 6 locations, 1,000 at the Finance Minsitry, 1,000 at Agriculture Ministry, 2,000 at Finance Ministry, 1,800 at NBT, 2,000 at the Jor Por Ror intersection (near Ratchadomnern), and 5,000 at Chamai Maruchet Bridge .

BP: Military reshuffle is coming up... Hmm. PAD are out of control now. Where will they stop?

11:30 am. The Nation has a good set of updates. PAD detaining female NBT staff, Chamlong demanding 80 PAD protesters who the police detained after the NBT raid be released - this part of the threat to raid Police HQ if they don't, footage of PAD breaking things at PAD, and Anupong stating there will be coup.

From Matichon, the Supreme Commander also says no coup. Samak is being very quiet and waiting until after the Cabinet meeting (I am sure he is itching to say something). Abhisit disagrees with PAD protests of closing roads and government ministries.

BP: Is this a surprise party for Prem's birthday? I should note that Gen. Anupong is back in the country after going to a trip to Malaysia.

Lost Boy has a blog post.

13:00: PAD enter the Metropolitan Police HQ and the chief of Metropolitan Police is negotiating so they don't enter the building - Thai Rath has a photo of them starting to push down the fence. PAD storm the Finance Minstry building.

Also, well-known TV presenter Kitti who went to see the protests has stated he was punched by the PAD protesters. Matichon appparently has video on the frontpage although it is not loading for me.

BP: Journos usually don't like when protesters turn on them so expect that to get some play on Thai TV.

From the wire services. AP:

Dozens of anti-government protesters armed with knives, guns and golf clubs stormed a TV station and briefly forced it off the air Tuesday, while thousands more peacefully laid siege to government ministries, witnesses and local media said.

Members of the People's Alliance for Democracy stormed the government-controlled National Broadcasting Services of Thailand studios in the Thai capital, forcing it to shut down for a few hours before police arrested the 50 to 80 protesters without incident, the broadcaster said.

Hundreds more activists protested unarmed outside the gates of the media compound.

As many as 8,000 more PAD supporters were peacefully protesting outside the gates of several government ministries including the main Government House, preventing employees from entering the offices, witnesses and local media reported.

"We are now controlling most of the key government offices to prevent them from coming to work," said Sondhi Limthongkul, a co-leader of the PAD. "Today, we declare a long, long holiday for the government."

AFP:

Protesters marched before dawn on Government House and the National Broadcasting Service of Thailand (NBT) office, forcing the station off the air after storming the premises for a second time.

"Now we have completely taken over NBT and I want more people to join them," PAD leader Sondhi Limthongkul told demonstrators at another location in the Thai capital.

"Today is judgement day. I am ready if they want to arrest me. If we have to go to police headquarters this time we will not simply stay outside. We will get inside there," he told the cheering crowds.

Deputy government spokesman Nuttawut Saikua told AFP: "PAD have seized NBT to cut off the government communication. Now up to 3,000 people have occupied NBT and they plan to do their own broadcast."

A first attempt to take over the station ended with the arrests of 80 protesters. Police charged them with trespassing and seized a handgun, slingshots and golf clubs.

Elsewhere, thousands of protesters surrounded Government House, with PAD demonstrators using trucks to block all entrances.

"As of now the government has stopped functioning," an official who asked not to be named told AFP, saying only 10 percent of staff had made it to work.
...
"We are here today to show the government that the Thai people don't need them. We want the government to step down," said Prahert Surachetphanich, a doctor, as he joined the rally at Government House.
...
Thai television news reported that PAD protesters were burning tyres and blocking traffic on major highways into Bangkok.

Highway police chief Colonel Somyos Promnim told AFP that about 2,500 people had protested on roads in the north, northeast and south of Thailand, but said traffic was still getting through.
...
Asked if the government planned to declare emergency rule, Nuttawut [the deputy government spokesman] replied: "Wait for the prime minister. So far there is no special instruction."

Bloomberg:

``We are going to protest all over town to oust Samak,'' said Parnthep Pongpourpan, an organizer. ``Samak has tried to stop our rallies so many times but he cannot. We expect that he will resign under the pressure.''

The baht fell to the weakest in almost a year and stocks dropped as the government said it was preparing to arrest those seeking to overthrow the government. Two years ago, protests led by the same group resulted in a coup that ousted former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra.

The People's Alliance for Democracy, which claims Samak is a nominee of Thaksin, said they'll block highways connecting Bangkok with northern provinces, seize ministries and close Phuket and Hat Yai airports today.
...
The protests may backfire as they disrupt traffic and businesses, said Thitinan Pongsudhirak, director of the Institute for Strategic and International Studies at Chulalongkorn University in Bangkok.

``This is all provocation today from the People's Alliance to generate an overreaction from the government,'' he said. ``If Samak doesn't react hastily and holds his ground, the protesters may become frustrated. Then we might see the worst case scenario where the protesters become uncontrollable.''
...
``Thailand is in a nightmare,'' Kongkiat Opaswongkarn, chief executive officer at brokerage Asia Plus Securities, told Channel 9 television. ``How can the country exist when people don't obey the rules?''

Clubs, Knives Seized

Earlier this morning, police detained 80 people and collected dozens of golf clubs and foot-long knives from protesters who tried to take over the station, said Surapol Thuanthong, a police spokesman. Police had managed to secure the office before the second wave of protesters.

``We are compiling evidence for charges of an attempt to overthrow the government,'' Surapol told Thai PBS. Senior police officials are meeting now to develop a response to the break in.
...
A People's Alliance spokesman condemned the use of weapons and encouraged police to arrest those who break the law.

``Some people can claim they are from the People's Alliance and we don't have DNA tests to prove whether they are or not,'' said Parnthep. ``We request that policeman follow the law and arrest those people.

BP: If the PAD is conemdning those who use weapons, why have they been threatening to storm Police HQ until the police release those arrested?

I agree with Thitinan, the quotemeister, Samak's response is key. He can just let police arrest the 5 leaders without a serious crackdown at move venues. I also agree with him that if the government doesn't react soon PAD will try to provoke them more, but further provocation provides an opportunity for police to send in negotiators and prolong it.

Expect to see a new law restricting political gatherings on roads soon.

Other news, Matichon reports one of the PAD leaders Suriyasai as saying they will do an overnighter at the Finance Ministry.

Thanong:

We have been underestimating Prime Minister Samak Sundaravej's survival instinct all along. He has locked in his premiership and been enjoying every minute of his time in office. He will keep his job at least until the end of the year, defying the pundits' earlier assessment that his government would not last beyond October or November.
...
The question is whether Samak will chose to serve as prime minister for as long as possible in this term before retiring from politics, or whether he would want to continue to lead the party for another term. Now his bargaining power has increased quite significantly due to the infighting in the People Power Party.

BP: I think he will retire at the end of this term, but barring the dissolution and banning of executives, this term might last longer than expected.

When Thaksin made the announcement from London last week to declare his intention to seek exile abroad, he faxed his hand-written statement to Newin. Newin was waiting for the news from Thaksin at the Pullman Bangkok Hotel before passing the statement on to the TV newsroom of NBT to broadcast. Newin now controls more than 100 MPs from the Northeast, although the MPs from the upper Northeast don't like him, nor do the MPs from the North. But they all realise that Newin is calling most of the shots.

Newin is now backing Finance Minister Surapong Suebwonglee as the next prime minister. Surapong's chances of becoming prime minister depend on a power play that will be intensifying in coming months. Already, he has consolidated power in the capital markets, with Vijit Supinit and Nibhat Bhukkanasut the key players behind the scenes.
...
The Thaksin era is effectively coming to a close. This time he won't be allowed to play politics from London again for too long.

BP: I don't see that Thaksin won't be playing politics from London. He has extradition and 76 billion reasons not to stay quiet. See Veera below.

What I find interesting about the Gang of Four debate is if the Isan Patana guy had never mentioned the Gang of Four then talk of Surapong being PM would be talk of replacing Samak with a Thaksin loyalist - Surapong was Thaksin's spokesman at the time of the coup in New York and was one of the key people who didn't abandon TRT and was still qualified to be a Minister.

Yoon:

The tougher he talks, he more insecure he feels. He says he won't quit or dissolve the House to call a new election. But don't bank on it. Premier Samak Sundaravej isn't calling the shots. He doesn't even know whether he will still be in this position next week.
...
And that in itself is quite a revelation because when push comes to shove, Samak won't be able to withstand the mounting political pressure to ease him out of his current position.
...
Thaksin's political exile may offer Samak a temporary reprieve. But Samak, despite his subtle but desperate effort to form an alliance with the military establishment, is anything but secure in his political tightrope walk.

He has not come out to officially deny the allegations by his own party's Northeastern faction that he is a member of the "Gang of Four" that is plotting a treacherous, breakaway move against Thaksin. He is in no way in control of any significant faction within his own party, let alone enjoying the loyalty of the coalition partners.

His lack of political vision and his open hostility against the urban middle-class and the intelligentsia has contributed to the general consensus that Samak, second only to Thaksin, has become the leading threat to national reconciliation.

BP: Given the commentariat don't like him, what greater endorsement does he need to win the North and Northeast vote?

The most obvious proof came on Tuesday, when he told a closed-door meeting of disgruntled party members who had filed a petition claiming that Samak had failed to prevent the police from issuing arrest warrants for Thaksin and his wife: "If you continue with this campaign, you obviously don't want me as premier. In that case, I will consider myself…"

BP: PPP members create a fuss. Samak explains things to them then says if you don't want me, I'll go. He is calling their bluff. They can't let him resign as who will replace him. Instead, they all leave happy and promise to vote for Samak again if he temporarily disqualified by the Constitutional Court. I don't think that suggests weakness - although see below for Thaksin's role.

Veera:

Mr Thaksin was said to have played no role in the shakeup. Thus the speculation he might gradually distance himself from active politics to concentrate on defending himself and his family from all the corruption cases against them.
...
He has demonstrated that he is still very much in control of his fractious People Power party (PPP) and his words, although voiced from far away, are still heeded by his followers in the party.

Last week as the PPP was heading for a factional showdown, Mr Thaksin made phone calls from London to the faction leaders urging them to set aside their differences and to stick together for the sake of the party.

He also urged one faction, the Isan Pattana, to drop a plan to grill Mr Samak over his failure to protect the reputation of Mr Thaksin and Khunying Potjaman for allowing the police to distribute across the nation the arrest warrant for the couple.

Thanks to Mr Thaksin's intervention, the planned query was dropped. The showdown was averted, but the rift is not likely to heal easily with mere words from the party boss. Bitterness and resentment run deep among factions which missed out on cabinet seats.

Although distance may not be a problem, thanks to the marvel of communications technology, the fact that Mr Thaksin is not physically here to look after the party will make it difficult for him to keep the party in one piece since the faction leaders are listening to no one except Mr Thaksin.

The longer Mr Thaksin stays away, the greater the chance that he will one day lose the firm grip that he has held on the party.

For the time being, Mr Thaksin remains fiercely defiant and feels that his day of reckoning will come one day when he stages a triumphant comeback because he believes that he has the loyalty of his party members and the support of substantial grassroots people in the North and Northeast on top of his huge war chest.

What he seems to have forgotten or to have ignored is the Lord Buddha's words of wisdom that nothing lasts forever. The loyalty and support of his admirers will not last, especially from the politicians.

BP: Veera is right that Thakin's loyalty and support will wane, but this is over time, a long time. While he does, Thaksin is the glue that holds PPP together albeit it is fragile.

On the different factions, see the Bangkok Post:

When it comes to forging strategic alliances, the Gang of Four led by Prime Minister Samak Sundaravej and former Thai Rak Thai executive Newin Chidchob is clearly a cut above other factions in the People Power party (PPP). The Gang counts prominent names in the party hierarchy as its members, including Commerce Minister Chaiya Sasomsab and Transport Minister Santi Promphat. Mr Chaiya boasts of sizeable support from MPs in the Central Plain region while Mr Santi claims a large following of northern MPs.

Most important of all, the Gang of Four is on amicable terms with the military thanks to Mr Samak's political affiliations with the top brass.

Its growing dominance is pitted against another titan in the PPP. Termed the ''Gang of Five'' by Mr Newin, the camp comprises former House speaker Yongyuth Tiyapairat, ousted prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra's sister Yaowapa Wongsawat, former Thai Rak Thai deputy leader Khunying Sudarat Keyuraphan, former transport minister Pongsak Rakpongpaisal and former interior minister Chalerm Yubamrung.

Mr Newin is convinced the faction is embittered by its diminishing power in the PPP. He also believes the Gang of Five backed the Isan Pattana faction of Paichit Sriworakhan in twice declaring war on his faction.

In both cases, the Gang of Four's loyalty to Mr Thaksin was questioned. The first incident involved the cabinet reshuffle; the new line-up sparked an allegation the Gang of Four was plotting to sideline Mr Thaksin. The accusation brought Mr Newin to his knees, prompting Yingluck Shinawatra, Mr Thaksin's sister, to mediate between the two ''gangs''.

Mr Newin did all he could to refute the allegation his group was going behind Mr Thaksin's back to discredit him.

Mr Newin was accused of distributing Mr Thaksin's Aug 11 statement on his escape to London to news outlets. The address shows the statement was faxed from a Bangkok hotel in Soi Rang Nam, the headquarters of Mr Newin's faction.

Mr Newin's message is clear: he remains the big boss' most trusted aide.

Before the Gang of Four could clear themselves, the police put Mr Thaksin and his wife, Khunying Potjaman, on the wanted list and distributed copies of the arrest warrants nationwide.

Some 200 PPP members led by Mrs Yaowapa signed an open letter demanding to know why the police were so keen to publicise the warrants. She said it was humiliating for her brother.

The spotlight shifted to Mr Samak this time, but the PPP leader cleared the air with party members who subsequently pledged to vote him back in as prime minister if he is disqualified over his TV cooking shows.

In the meantime, every faction is competing for Mr Thaksin's attention, claiming it has been in contact with the former prime minister.

Mr Paichit insisted Mr Thaksin had talked every faction into burying the hatchet.

A source close to Mrs Yaowapa's faction said Mr Thaksin was aware of the latest move against Mr Samak. He just wants to show that when he speaks everyone listens and obeys. When his little schemes work, he calls every group to put the matter to rest and puts the stamp on his supreme authority.

Underneath the purported unity is likely the start of a new battle to be the big boss' pet. The factions are aware they will need a helping hand from Mr Thaksin at the next elections.
...
And the haggling is expected to intensify now that Puea Thai _ a replacement party in the event the PPP is dissolved for election fraud _ has been registered by Mrs Yaowapa and Phayap Shinawatra, Mr Thaksin's brother, without Mr Newin's involvement.

BP: The details of the "Gang of Five" is interesting, but also the mediator. Thaksin helps electorally so he still has power.

Bloomberg:

Thai prosecutors charged former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra with abusing his power, seeking to confiscate $2.2 billion of assets that were frozen after a 2006 coup.

``The court should seize Thaksin's assets as he earned unusual wealth from a conflict of interest,'' Sakesun Bangsomboon, director-general of the Department of Special Litigation, said today. The attorney general's office used a truck to transfer 240,000 pages of legal documents to the court.

The charges add to three cases already accepted by the Supreme Court in Bangkok against Thaksin, who fled into exile earlier this month claiming the judiciary is corrupt. Thai officials have said they may revoke the billionaire's passport and seek his extradition from England, where he owns Manchester City football club.

Before entering politics, Thaksin, 59, won one of two mobile-phone concessions, and was awarded an exclusive satellite franchise. In 1994, when he was appointed foreign minister in a coalition government, Thaksin and his wife disclosed assets worth $2.4 billion. He formed his own party in 1998 and became prime minister in 2001.

``There is no justifiable reason to claim that he and his family are unusually wealthy,'' Pongthep Thepkanjana, a spokesman for Thaksin, said by phone today. ``These are all assets he had before he became prime minister.''

Shin Corp. Sale

In June 2007, an army-appointed investigative body froze most of the proceeds from his family's sale of its stake in telecommunications firm Shin Corp. to Singapore's state-run Temasek Holdings Pte Ltd. for 73 billion baht ($2.1 billion).

During Thaksin's tenure as prime minister between February 2001 and September 2006, Shin Corp. shares rose 48 percent to 31 baht. Thailand's benchmark SET Index more than doubled to 703 points during that time. Thaksin's family sold its stake in Shin on Jan. 23, 2006.

Shin controls Advanced Info Service Pcl, the country's biggest mobile phone company. Its shares doubled to 93 baht while Thaksin was prime minister, in line with the benchmark index. During the same period, Total Access Communication Pcl, Thailand's second-largest mobile phone company and listed on the Singapore Exchange, increased 27 percent.

BP: Interesting that Shin Corp shares only went up 48% while the SET index doubled. Surely, this is a relevant figure to take into account on whether he enriched himself.

Then post-coup:

Since the coup that deposed Thaksin, Shin shares declined 23 percent to 24 baht, and Advanced Info shares dropped 5 percent to 88 baht. Total Access shares increased 44 percent to $1.24 in that time, while the SET Index fell 3.5 percent.

btw, I swear the same AG said a few months ago that it was necessary to separate the assets Thaksin had when he entered office with those now.

I have previously blogged on the government going after perpetrators of the violence (and here) as the Bangkok Post reports:

Two more suspects were arrested on Sunday for alleged involvement in the deadly bombing in Narathiwat province last week.

The total number of suspects being questioned in the incident is eight, local officials in the southern province said.

(See earlier story on arrest of six suspects - Click here)

More than 200 personnel in a combined military and police force searched an unnamed village in Sungai Kolok, one of the most restive districts in Narathiwat, apprehending a man with two pistols, 181 rounds of ammunition, a large amount of U.S. currency, five cell phones, five bank account books, four motorcycles and a pickup truck, according to a report by Thai News Agency.

The arrested man told authorities that both the weapons and the dollars belonged to someone else. Another man, a 30-year-old homeowner, was also arrested for interrogation. The authorities seized a pistol, 26 cartridges, 76,000-baht (about $2,235) cash and a counterfeit motorcycle registration plate in his possession.
...
Maj-Gen Theerachai Nakvanich, commanding the Narathiwat Task Force, said all suspects are being interrogated, and that the authorities now knew the origin of the bomb-laden motorcycle and car.

Intelligence officers have stepped up their activities in three Narathiwat districts to monitor movements of insurgents, Maj-Gen Theerachai indicated.

BP: Obviously, this was no random raid. In fact, whenever there is a large attack, the authorities quickly are able to conduct a raid. From reading similar reports of raids for a long time, it is clear that the intelligence black hole (where the authorities seemed to know nothing) which existed in 2004 and 2005. This is not to say the authorities know everything as they don't, but they are no longer completely in the dark.

The Nation has a good editorial in the recent bombing in the Deep South which killed 2 and injured 30, but I was surprised by this:

The magnitude of this latest attack sent a chilling message to the world that the insurgency in Thailand's deep South is alive despite claims by authorities that the situation is improving.

BP: I have two problems with this statement.

First, two people were killed and thirty injured. Yes, it is tragic, but it is hardly the magnitude of 12 soldiers being killed in a single attack. The Nation has lost perspective - does the fact that members of the media were killed or injured play a part in The Nation's thinking?

Second, last year The Nation was championing success and happy to quote Dr. Srisompob (who is behind the figures of the Intellectual Deep South Watch who I link to the 50% drop figure below) after a one month drop in violence, but now that we have a downward trend for more than 6 months yet it is called a mere "claim" that the situation is improving. A 50% drop in violence is evidence that the situation is improving.

The Nation in an editorial:

Prime Minister Samak Sundaravej must revoke Thaksin Shinawatra's passport immediately without delay. As a fugitive, he is not entitled to hold a national passport, even if he has been prime minister of this country. After all, why should he be entitled to one? He has impugned the Thai justice system in the most incredible way. He said he would never be able to receive a fair trial due to interference in the judicial system. The Foreign Ministry has rebutted Thaksin's allegations, stating that the judicial system is creditable and time-tested. Indeed, the revocation of Thaksin's passport could be done immediately. Remember, a few weeks after coming into office, former prime minister Surayud Chulanont ordered his foreign minister Nitya Pibulsonggram to immediately revoke Thaksin's passport.

When former foreign minister Noppadon Pattama came to power he immediately restored Thaksin's passport without any consultation with the prime minister. Samak's recalcitrance probably demonstrates his true feeling towards Thaksin - that the deposed prime minister is the real boss. He has repeatedly claimed that he has rescued Thaksin politically. Foreign Minister Tej Bunnag said Samak should make the decision, as it has become a matter of national concern.

The international community is watching Thailand and hanging on its decision. Without a Thai passport, Thaksin could still easily get a passport from obscure countries in the Caribbean and Pacific islands.

BP: Is this a standard that The Nation is applying to all fugitives (like Vatana)? I hear from TV reports and from reading a Matichon article that the law is clear that the passports should be revoked. Although I can't find the article, there was certainly some leeway, which I have heard on TV reports on the weekend, with words like "if in the opinion of" so does The Nation think that the government (i.e a Minister or someone responsible) is required to revoke all passports or that the government has the discretion to revoke the passports. There is a big difference between the two and if the later, the government can make a politically expedient decision.

If one criticises the Thai judicial system, does that make one no longer entitled to have a passport? Is this some new standard? What about government critics (like journalists) should they also be entitled to a passport?

Interestingly, The Nation raises the previous revocation of Thaksin's passport. The government announced at the time the passports were being revoked as Thaksin engaged in inappropriate political activities. Is The Nation really happy with this standard? I am sure Thaksin's lawyers have noted the reasons behind the previous revocation.

btw, Matichon reports the PM of Bermuda as saying he will allow (grant asylum to ?) Thaksin and his family to live there although Thaksin's spokesperson says he hasn't heard about this.

Bangkok Post:

Privy Council president Prem Tinsulanonda has declined the government's offer of a position car worth 6.5 million baht. The cabinet approved on Tuesday a 87.5-million-baht budget to buy position cars for the Privy Council president and 18 other privy councillors to replace their old vehicles which have been in use for six years. Position cars for privy councillors were worth 4.5 million baht each and the president's 6.5 million baht.

The cabinet also endorsed a 10% salary increase for the privy councillors' secretaries and chauffeurs.

A source close to Gen Prem said he decided to decline the offer because he had never used the Privy Council chief position car since assuming the presidency. Currently, he uses a light brown BMW sedan, a position car assigned to him in his role as statesman.

BP: Sufficiency economy BMW cars?

Bangkok Post:

Insurgents in the South may be using tactics learned from old ''warfare bibles'' from the communist era, which have been discovered in the houses of suspected insurgents in Narathiwat, according to an intelligence source.

Books on military strategy from Chinese Communist Party leader Mao Zedong and from two famous Vietnamese generals were recently found in houses belonging to suspected insurgents in Tanyong Limor, a village in Narathiwat's Rangae district.

The discovery has caused concern among authorities, who fear the insurgent network could be more complex and sophisticated than many previously thought.

The source said the books on warfare detailed the political ideas and military strategies of Mao and of Van Tien Dung and Vo Nguyen Giap, the two Vietnamese generals who were revolutionary figures of the People's Army of Vietnam.

The source said militant groups still used guerilla tactics and had no known permanent command centre. Also, most of the insurgents were educated.

''Now the insurgent groups are trying to seek sympathy from Islamic schools,'' the source said.

''They trick security personnel into mounting a raid on such schools to arrest religious teachers and students. The end result is a widened distrust and misunderstanding towards state authorities,'' the source said.

The most serious concern for authorities was the spread of radical ideas developed by Bersatu leader Wan Kadir Jehman and the circulation of the violence-provoking books in Pattani, the source added.

Meanwhile, Salae Himmud, the deputy chairman of the Phatthalung Provincial Islamic Committee, yesterday called on misguided religious leaders to redeem themselves by observing and adhering to the sanctity of the holy Muslim fasting month of Ramadan, which starts early next month.

He said the holy period presents a timely opportunity for rogue spiritual leaders to reform themselves before it was too late.

BP: First, the fact that no one claims responsibility for any violence and allows the insurgents/terrorists to blame the government/security personnel/vigilantes for any death - what Zachary Abuza calls the conspiracy of silence, should be a sign in itself that these are not people without a plan.* The importance of this is it feeds into the rumourmill

Second, on most of the insurgents being educated, this is hardly surprising as international research points to this being the case - my post said there was anedoctal evidence of this in Thailand.

Third, on Wan Kadir Che Man, see my posts here and here.

*I don't have any doubts that for the unclaimed deaths the government/security personnel/vigilantes are responsible for a small proportion (less than 5%), but that insurgents/terrorists are responsible for the vast majority of deaths. See this post for more on statistics pointing to the government being responsible for less than 2% of deaths in the past, but I should note from the latest Janes article Southern comfort - Thai insurgency falters (subscription only) the following:

These operations have been reinforced by what diplomats and international human rights monitors describe as a carefully calibrated campaign of extrajudicial killings ordered by authorities at district and provincial level. Typically, these assassinations, which may number two or three each month, have targeted key separatist political leaders at the village and sub-district level, men who are often also religious teachers and leaders.

BP: It is hard to know then wheter these deaths are recorded in official statistics as there is not always a body. The person just disappears.

The Nation:

Democrat Party leader Abhisit Vejjajiva said Saturday that the People's Alliance for Democracy should ensure that its demonstrations will not cause trouble to the public.

He said the rallies would not lead to changes in politics because any change should be made in line with the Constitution.

The Nation:*

Opposition Party leader Abhisit Vejjajiva said Sunday he believed Prime Minister Samak Sundaravej would not resign even though the People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD) threatened to use its ultimate measure on Tuesday to pressure the government.

Abhisit said he had no idea what the PAD would do to oust the government but he was confident that Samak would not bow to its pressure because he had never responded to the PAD's smaller demands.

BP: As I have blogged before (google isn't helping me find the link!), it is the Democrats who PAD hurts the most. For those who really dislike Thaksin and given the anti-Thaksin frenzy whipped up, the PAD/Manager is what they like, but the Democrats can't go as far as the PAD otherwise they will alienate too many of the "silent majority". This meant that the Democrats then are shut of the media and almost are forced to say something extreme to get any coverage. I still think their nationalist stance on Preah Vihear hurt their "brand" as the Democrats have always tried to position themselves as the "sensible" alternative - although I think this has always been a bit of a myth.

Nevertheless, I have noticed that some of PAD-cheering elements of the media are getting a bit tired of the PAD.

* Also from the article:

Meanwhile, Pipop Thongchai, a PAD leader denied that it stepped up its pressure on Tuesday because it was the birthday of Gen Prem Tinsulanonda.

It is because the government ignored His Majesty the King's instruction not to spend the money and it also instructed the Finance Ministry to order the Revenue Department to unfreeze the Bt76 billion of former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra.

The State Enterprises Workers' Relations Confederation secretarygeneral Sawit Kaewwan said the group would join the PAD protest and would cut off power and water of state agencies.

He said the group strongly opposed the government policy in managing state enterprises by trying to suppress growth so they were not profitable and the government could cite as the reason that they must be privatised.

Samak said in his "Talk Samak Style" that the country would not be in peace if the PAD insists to oust the government.

BP: I should cover HM the speech later, but I see that whenever the PPP spends any money the PAD will use the speech. I wonder if this applies to military spending too?

Bangkok Post letter to the editor:

As a European lawyer living in Asia and coming often to Bangkok, I would like to state the need for any European nation to show respect for the rule of law abroad. As substantive evidence shows, nothing leading to the prosecution of Thaksin Shinawatra or the conviction of his wife is demonstrative of any sort of judicial corruption in Thailand.
...
Thailand has been suffering from lack of confidence from investors, local and foreign, who fear that the political situation is unstable and that investing in Thailand at this time is risky. Granting political asylum to a convicted criminal and to someone who is clearly and objectively suspect of criminal wrongdoing will send a message to the investment community that anyone with sufficient means in that country will be able to escape justice from illegal activities by fleeing to another country and seeking protection under false and self-serving claims.

BP: Perhaps, this European lawyer could enlighten us on what Thaksin has been convicted of? Meanwhile, I am sure that foreign investors only care about Thaksin. Perhaps, if this is true, the foreign investment community should call on Thaksin to be prosecuted for his use of nominees in business and his tax planning. Oh wait, others do that.

Actually, from what I hear from multiple sources who talk to those concerned about the political risk in Thailand is that the principal concerns of the foreign business/investment community are succession, uncertain political environment particularly military coups (and appointed nationalist assemblies who change foreign investment laws) and selective prosecution. I wonder what they make of the case against Goldman Sachs - I remember details of another criminal case against an investment bank. There are many in the foreign business community who have been hauled into court for little known laws that have been never been enforced and which can be open to interpretation. I am not sure they really think that Thailand has suddenly turned a corner with the prosecution of Thaksin.

Bangkok Post:

The People's Alliance For Democracy (PAD) last night called on its supporters to converge on Tuesday for its last protest march.

PAD core leader Sondhi Limthongkul told supporters to gather at Makkhawan Rangsan bridge, the main protest venue, before 8 am on Tuesday before marching to an undisclosed destination to stop the nominee government of Samak Sundaravej from working.

''I'm making one last call for people in the North to come down and the South to come up. We'd like to ask people in every sector to come out.

''We ask you to trust us, the PAD core members,'' Mr Sondhi told the crowds and supporters who watched the rally via satellite-based ASTV.

The place in question was widely speculated to be Government House.

A source close to PAD said yesterday that after sealing off Government House, PAD leaders planned to lay siege to the headquarters of NBT television station.

The PAD's main target was believed to be Khwam Jing Wan Nee (Truth of Today) programme co-hosted by former Thai Rak Thai executive Veera Musikapong on NBT.

BP: Is it really the last protest march? PAD need a new issue to revive themselves (government spending ?) given they are slowing being ignored. I wonder how far they will go with this march.

In their press statement about the Forbes richest royal list, the Foreign Ministry stated:

The Ministry of Foreign Affairs wishes to further add that the report’s reference about His Majesty the King and the 2006 military intervention is incorrect. His Majesty had no role in the military intervention that took place in September 2006. As the Head of State according to the Thai Constitution, Royal assent is required for important matters of state. His Majesty’s royal assent by signature to the order appointing the Chairman of the Council for Democratic Reform was the pro forma exercise of functions assigned to a constitutional monarch.

BP: Hmm, this is actually interesting. First, what Thai Constitution? Announcement No. 3 of the Council for Democratic Reform states:

...(1) the Constitution of the Kingdom of Thailand, B.E. 2540 (1997) shall be repealed;
...
Given on the 19th Day of September B.E. 2549

BP: The 2006 Constitution was not enacted until October 1, 2006. There was no Thai Constitution at this point UNLESS the coup leaders visited HM the King before Announcement No. 3. Then you could theoretically rely on Section 7 of the 2007 Constitution if you want to fit within an according to the Constitution" argument:

Whenever no provision under this Constitution is applicable to any case, it shall be decided in accordance with the constitutional practice in the democratic regime of government with the King as Head of the State.

BP: Problem with this is HM the King strongly rejected arguments on using this provision earlier. If Section 7 is now being relied upon, wouldn't this then confirm that HM the King had a role in the coup? Perhaps, the Foreign Ministry can try again with some new spin.

The other day I blogged about Forbes ranking Thailand's King Bhumibol Adulyadej as the richest royal with $35 billion worth of assets. Yesterday, the Foreign Ministry released a statement:

With regards to the Forbes Special Report on the World’s Richest Royals published on 20th August 2008, which ranked His Majesty King Bhumibol Adulyadej of Thailand first, the Crown Property Bureau has clarified that the report is inaccurate and inconsistent. While the Report states that items elsewhere are considered not to belong to the Monarch and “as such are not counted in the Monarch’s net worth,” Forbes has included land and other assets belonging to the Crown Property Bureau which is not in His Majesty’s personal net worth.

BP: So much for the "increased transparency" or "unprecedented access", but then again that was just Forbes spin to have us believe they were somehow privy to new information in the public domain when in reality they were just relying on the academic paper by Dr. Porphant.

Nevertheless, I do wonder if the Foreign Ministry read the Forbes article? I will help them:

Keep in mind that the wealth of the royals comes from inheritances or positions of power; it is often shared with extended families and often represents money controlled by them in trust for their nation or territory. For these reasons, none of the 15 royals on this list would qualify for our annual ranking of the world's billionaires, regardless of their net worth.

BP: This is precisely what the Crown Property Bureau is! Perhaps, the Crown Property Bureau or the Foreign Ministry should refute Dr Porphant's paper instead of scripted press releases which don't tell us anything.

UPDATE: Thanks to Passer-by for posting the link to the article on Forbes website specifically about HM the King. It explains that the information was from Dr. Porphant directly. The impression I got from the lead article was that Forbes were privy to the information and not someone else. The direct article explains that is not the case. Key excerpt:

The bulk of the bureau's assets lies in its vast real estate holdings, which make it the country's largest landowner and include roughly one-third of Bangkok's central business district. The bureau also holds a 30% stake in the Siam Cement Group and a 25% share of Siam Commercial Bank (other-otc: CBDP.PK - news - people ). The bureau granted an economic historian who is writing a history of the bureau, Porphant Ouyyanont, unprecedented access to its files in 2005. His paper, which was published in the U.K.'s Journal of Contemporary Asia in February, pegged the value of the bureau's assets at $27.4 billion as of the end of 2005. Since then the assets and the baht have appreciated (though the baht has fallen recently). "Sure, [the estimate] is enormous, but it's reasonable," he says. "We know the price of land. We know [the market] capitalization [of the companies]." An adviser to the bureau, Aviruth Wongbuddhapitak, said by e-mail that "generally, there is no major inaccuracy" in Porphant's paper

BP: Dr Porphant's paper is here. At footnote 20:

(20) This document was prepared by Dr Chirayu Isarangkun na Ayuthaya and given to the author. He also kindly provided a written comment on an earlier Thai-language version of this research (cited as Crown Property Bureau, 2006b). His comment included data on the rental and dividend income of the CPB (used for Table 4), as well as explanation of business strategy. Information on the accounts and strategies of SCB and SCG comes from their Annual Reports, and from data published by the Stock Exchange of Thailand.

BP: The data on rental and divided income though is not relevant to the land value because as the Thai Foreign Ministry states:

The Crown Property Bureau also stated that it leases most of its land at low prices to state agencies, non-governmental organizations, community housing and shophouses. Only about 7% are leased at commercial prices.

BP: Dr. Porphant does not appear to have received the same help on the asset value - the key to calculating the CPB's wealth which is what the Forbes article is about. He states in his paper published:

“The segment which is difficult to assess is the landed property,” Porphant writes. “While the total area owned by the CPB in central Bangkok is known to be 8,835 rai (552.18 hectares), there is no information available on exactly where this land is located.”

BP: If you read what he writes it is clear that he combs through Thai government records and newspapers records to make an educated guess on the total wealth. I can't find anywhere where Dr. Porphant says he was given "unprecedented access" - this conjures up the image of historians who have full access to the books - but yes, the Crown Property Bureau has been more transparent. Things were written about the Bureau in the 80s and 90s, but with their ever increasing revenue they have come under spotlight. I should also note the Forbes article on HM the King provides some interesting insights on this. Key excerpt:

Today the vast size and reach of the bureau is greater than ever, but some see its growing power as a contradiction of the king's own philosophy. "It is not a little ironic that the monarchy, at the head of Thailand's biggest business conglomerate, now promotes an inward-looking development strategy," says Kevin Hewison, coeditor of the quarterly journal that published Porphant's paper. "The king has promoted his idea of the "sufficiency economy," emphasizing small-scale, traditional farming and Buddhist notions of moderation at the very time that the bureau's companies are expanding industrial production, encouraging consumption through investment in glitzy shopping malls and making large profits."

So why is the bureau opening up its books, at least a crack? In recent years Chirayu, the bureau's manager, has been disclosing bits and pieces to a few Thai journalists. "By offering up a little now it hopes to protect itself from something worse--perhaps in the same way that the U.K. royal family offered to pay income tax [in 1992]," says Michael Backman, an authority on Asian business networks who put the value of the bureau's holdings at $8 billion in his 1999 book, Asian Eclipse: Exposing the Dark Side of Business in Asia.

Perhaps, with King Bhumibol now 80 years old, Chirayu and the bureau are preparing for the time when Thailand is ruled by the less predictable Prince Vajiralongkorn, suggests Handley, who twice interviewed the director-general. "I think Chirayu is pretty shrewd," he says. "The finance ministry and business community have always trusted Chirayu's judgment, but now they must signal to the prince," Handley adds, that he must handle the fortune responsibly. If he doesn't, Handley says, "Thailand's economy could be irreversibly damaged."

But bureau adviser Aviruth says simply: "The utmost aim [of the bureau is] to uphold the royal prestige and kindness of the monarchy. We feel that … we should … disclose certain information for the benefit of the public."

BP: Interesting.

The Nation:*

Prime Minister Samak Sundaravej said Friday that he has no plans to revoke passports of fugitive prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra or to ask Britain to extradite him.
...
Foreign Minister Tej Bunnag said on Thursday that Samak will have a final say whether to revoke Thaksin's passports or not.

Responding on questions whether he will revoke Thaksin's passport or seek his extradition, Samak said on Friday, "I have no policy to revoke his passport or doing anything on that.

BP: The implication is that he won't do it which is not what he said. The "yet" or "as of now" part of what Samak said is missing. Bangkok Post:

Prime Minister Samak Sundaravej said he has no policy to revoke diplomatic passport of ex-premier Thaksin Shinawatra, who is currently seeking political asylum in London, as of now.

Mr Samak, speaking to reporters on Friday, said he has not yet discussed the matter with Foreign Minister Tej Bunnag because he has not met him yet.

On Thursday, Mr Tej said he submitted a letter to Mr Samak, asking him to decide whether to revoke diplomatic and ordinary passports of Mr Thaksin after he skipped bail on Ratchadaphisek land deal case and fled to London with his wife Khunying Potjaman.

BP: The Bangkok Post's account is more accurate from what I have read in Thai Rath. Also, see Matichon, where Samak says he has yet to met Tej about this and does not yet have any policy about this (ยังไม่ได้พบกับนายเตช และยังไม่มีนโยบายเรื่องนี้). The "no policy" part means he hasn't decided.

Classic move by Tej to throw the hospital pass to Samak. Samak can either (a) revoke the passports and cause an outroar in the party with those in PPP labelling him a traitor, or (b) not revoke the passports and for the entire media, Democrats and PAD to label him a puppet. If I was him, I would appoint a committee for advice and give them lots of things to do and so it will take longer than 6 months or put it to Cabinet, but I imagine he will revoke the diplomatic passport and let Thaksin keep the ordinary passport for now.

*Is it AFP again? Then again, it isn't as bad as Radio Australia.

Suranand in the Bangkok Post:

The question for discussion is whether the dissolution of a political party is an appropriate measure to correct the wrongdoings in an election?

In a democratic society, sovereign power belongs to the people. The candidates and their ideas would be presented to the masses for consideration under a party banner. Voters would pick and choose what or who they think is best for them. It may sound naive to some, but this simple principle must be upheld for democracy to thrive and prosper, and for citizens' rights to be protected.

Political parties are vehicles of democracy. A political ideology and party platform reflect the thoughts of personalities that come together to form the organisation. Parties are forums where ideas merge and interests compromise for the benefit of the general public. Freedom of expression is assured.

Though Thai political parties are not as institutionalised as their counterparts in Western democracies, as the ideologies are similar and many platforms indistinguishable, it is not an excuse to make political parties "weak" as some academics have proposed, or not to have them at all. For democracy to mature, one must trust the judgement of the voters. The public will learn through this "pick and choose" method which is also a "trial and error" process, determining who holds the public interest at heart, and who hides their private agenda. To interrupt this learning curve by letting an individual or group say that they know better, is undemocratic and induces dictatorial tendencies.

The vicious cycle of coups and elections throughout the 76 years of Thai democracy has proved that this line of thinking is wrong.

As for those political parties which fail to gain public trust, or divert to protect personal interests against the will of the people, they will be punished by voters and wither away eventually.

Those that have gone through the test of time remain. The veteran Democrat party is now a 62-year-old institution. Chart Thai is 34 years old. The PPP, an outgrowth of the dissolved Thai Rak Thai Party (TRT), carried on TRT's immense popularity by winning the last election with 233 seats in parliament.

Furthermore, every political party is composed of members and supporters. A party executive involved in electoral fraud does not mean that the entire party is committing a crime against democracy. To interpret that everybody else has to be held accountable is basically an overreaction and an impingement on individual rights and liberty.

This does not mean that election fraud should be tolerated. Of course, vote buying, racketeering and various murky techniques normally practised here in Thailand must be got rid of. And individual wrongdoers have to be punished with a jail sentence as the ultimate prize!

BP: So far I agree with him - see my previous posts which have touched on party dissolution here and here amongst many other posts.

Should the executives be punished? Yes, if they are co-conspirators. But for those who can prove that they are not involved, an appeal should be allowed to regain their basic political rights. No one is guilty until proven so, and one should not be punished for being guilty by association.

BP: No one is guilty until proven so? So if this the case why do executives need to prove they are not involved. Shouldn't the onus be on the prosecutor to prove they were involved? So far election law does not require that they must personally be aware of the electoral fraud. If they know of the fraud taking place and did nothing, this is sufficient. How does one prove that one wasn't aware of something?

A democratic solution to prevent political abuse by political parties is to institute comprehensive campaign finance reforms and instill democratic values in the public so that they become informed voters making rational choices.

A dissolution of political parties is not a democratic solution. Let the people who own the undeniable rights and liberty decide who they want as their representatives, not the courts.

BP: On the second paragraph I agree, but the first paragraph is just airy fairy, ivory tower rhetoric. There are hugely different campaign finance models everywhere.

It is this criminalisation of all aspects which I disagree with. Giving out free tickets to listen to Obama's speech at the Democratic Convention would be a no-no in Thailand and if a party executive was to do, not only would they be in trouble, the party would be dissolved, and executives banned from politics for 5 years. Accusing a candidate of breaching electoral laws can result in you getting three years in jail. Thailand's problem is not more rules and regulations - usually so wide in their breadth that everyone can be guilty and they change so often with new regulations issued and new laws promulgated - but fewer laws which are clear and easy to understand.

I have previously blogged on the ceasefire video here and here. At the time:

The ceasefire was negotiated between the unknown insurgent group with retired Army Gen. Chetta Thanajaro, leader of the Ruam Jai Thai Chart Pattana political party.

Gen. Chetta, a former defense minister, said later Thursday he personally believed the three men represented insurgent groups and that they wanted to cease operations.

"The outcome should be known within the next 30 days," Gen. Chetta said, adding that he would solely take the responsibility if anything happens.

BP: 30 days have since passed (July 17-August 15) so what has happened?

First, though by way of comparison TJA/Isara news has statistics for the first 6 months of this year:*



Source

According to TJA/Isara News, for the thirty days after the ceasefire (July 17-August 15), there were 104 incidents, 30 deaths, and 130 injuries.

BP: I am not sure whether you would say there has been an increase in the violence. Obviously, the most important figure deaths is down from the average of 50 deaths a month to only 30, but there has been a large increase in the number of injuries and incidents so I would call it mixed. Probably up slightly and as I said at the time, there would likely be a surge in violence in the immediate aftermath, but I am not so certain it has worsened the situation in the long-term.

On this reasons for the video and long-term prospects, Isara News recently spoke to an army officer, on the condition of anonymity, who was involved in talking those in the ceasefire video who states that in the four years since the violence started, we don't know for sure who is behind the violence. When is it said that is the BRN-Coordinate, we don't know for sure as there is no definitive evidence. Further, he lsaid that the police, military, and the National Intelligence Agency are all searching for confirmation, but have been unable to find it. There are also many groups who privately claim they are behind the violence.

These groups have been living off intelligence money for a long time. This is the first time we have been able to prove that they are lying and this was part of Gen. Chetta's dare to them. If they were really behind the violence, they should announce a ceasefire and call on their followers to stop the violence.

Intelligence officials have also picked up more information on other groups communicating with each other since the ceasefire saying they weren't stopping or participating in the ceasefire.

BP: I am a bit of sceptical if this is not justification after the fact. There was no need for Gen. Chetta to personally present the video. It could have been leaked. That would still have had the desired affect, but then again the clumsiness of the releasing of the video by Gen. Chetta and those close to him and the group think nature of military officers might have meant they weren't really thinking what mass public/media opinion would be and they were caught off-guard.

This is why I think there is an element of truth to what the army officer said. We only have his word for now on what they meant and what intelligence was received in the aftermath, but it should be noted in private the Thaksin, Surayud, and Samak governments having been talking to some of the people in the video and likely others. On the most recent talks see Janes "Southern comfort - Thai insurgency falters" (subscription only) which stated:

The process appeared to take a significant step forward in March 2007, when the Thai government set up a formal Dialogue Committee led by the head of the National Security Council and including senior military and Ministry of Foreign Affairs officials. The most recent rounds of discussions held in Southeast Asian venues in March and May 2008 examined concrete steps, that if implemented, may serve to move the process to a new level and open up the possibility of formal negotiations. These steps, which include mechanisms for reducing violence, will attempt to allay separatist doubts over Bangkok's readiness to negotiate and government concerns as to whether separatists-in-exile can control militants on the ground.

BP: I think the government has got their answer as was a put-up-or-shut-up moment. I think there was an element of desperation on the Thai military side (those behind the video) and it certainly was a high-risk gamble. Nevertheless, given three governments have wasted time in dealing with these groups perhaps they can now devote their time trying to find those actually behind the violence.

*In case you are wondering, yes Isara/TJA News and Deep South Watch's figures are different. Isara/TJA News include Songkhla in the figures and they calculate them in different ways. Nevertheless, if you saw my post on the Thai surge where I stated there is has been a 50% reduction in the violence, compared with 2007, the Isara/TJA News statistics shows there is a large reduction in incidents although the number of death hasn't droped as much.

In the first 6 months of 2007, there were 1,135 incidents and 417 deaths

In the first 6 months of 2008, there were 563 incidents and 302 deaths.

Source

Observer in the Richest Royal post:

Have you ever met a sufficiency economy advocate who was poor?

BP: Oh so true.

AFP:

At this moment, Thaksin's legal team is proceeding to ask for political asylum for Thaksin and his family in Britain," said Watchara Seangprathum, one of Thaksin's Thai lawyers.

"His asylum request will note their malicious treatment in Thailand, where they lack security and freedom," Watchara told reporters.

Thaksin has accused the Thai courts of bias and said he feared his family could not receive a fair trail.

FT (writer is in Hong Kong)

A lawyer for Mr Thaksin said yesterday that his client was seeking political asylum without specifying on what grounds. He said Mr Thaksin could claim a breach of his rights or liberty or even a threat to personal safety.

Bangkok Post:

Former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra and his wife are seeking political asylum in Britain, just 10 days after fleeing to London from Beijing.

Mr Thaksin also has called for unity within the People Power party, urging PPP members to stand behind their leader, Prime Minister Samak Sundaravej.

His lawyer Watchara Sangpratum yesterday confirmed Mr Thaksin and his wife Khunying Potjaman were applying for asylum and that the couple will not show up at the Supreme Court tomorrow to defend themselves in the Ratchadaphisek land case.

The Nation:

"At this moment, Thaksin's legal team is proceeding to ask for political asylum for Thaksin and his family in Britain," said Watchara Seangprathum.

The request will refer to "malicious treatment in Thailand, where they lack security and freedom", Watchara said.

BP: The Nation has the same words as AFP - I doubt Thaksin's lawyer spoke in English so did they both translate it the same way or as is there a single source? I ask because Thai Rath writes the same, but its source is the AFP report. The AFP report also refers to the lawyer "told reporters" so it does not appear to be an exclusive. Matichon also refers to the AFP report, but then paraphrases Watchara, the lawyer mentioned in the AFP report as saying that Thaksin "can/is able to seek asylum" (สามารถใช้สิทธิลี้ภัยได้). It is weirdly phrased paragraph and one might imply that Thaksin would seek asylum, but there were Thai reporters covering the press coonference by Watchara yesterday and none of them have their own quote. None of the other wire services have their own quote. (Oh crap, just as I was about to post, I have found a Reuters story now which says that Thaksin is in the process on seeking political asylum although again it uses slightly different wording from AFP saying that Thaksin can refer to the mistreatment and not that he will).

Does anyone have an actual quote on what the lawyer said in Thai?

Perhaps, this all moot now as a PPP list MP has said today that Thaksin has already filed a political asylum application. The list MP concerned will also go to the British Embassy today to file a statement explaining about the unjust events which happened during the coup period.

BP: Then again I hope this list MP is going on more than the news reports, but was an application filed between yesterday and today.

Forbes:

At the top of our list is Thailand's King Bhumibol Adulyadej, whose $35 billion estimated net worth is up sevenfold as a result of increased transparency of his Crown Property Holdings. He takes the top spot from the only other Asian monarch on the list, the Sultan of Brunei, worth $20 billion, one of only two rulers worth less than they were last year. The sultan, who inherited the riches of an unbroken 600-year-old Muslim dynasty, has had to cut back on his country's oil production because of depleting reserves.

In the individual article, it says:

The world's longest-reigning monarch is revered as a deity. His Crown Property Bureau, through which he holds wealth, granted unprecedented access this year, revealing vast landholdings, including 3,493 acres in Bangkok. He also owns stakes in the publicly listed Siam Cement and Siam Commercial Bank. He recently increased investment in Deves Insurance in order to take it private. While the crown remains technically separate from state, the king exerts enormous influence and is thought to have given his implicit blessing to the 2006 coup that overthrew former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra

BP: Increased transparency? Unprecedented access? I very much doubt the Crown Property Bureau, who keep their figures closely to the chest, would grant access to Forbes to write about how rich the Royal Family was. Isn't the Forbes figure really because of that academic article whose educated guess was about the USD35 billion mark? If they don't grant access to a Thai academic who writes a lengthy paper on the topic, why Forbes?

btw, thanks to a long-term reader for the pointer.

I previously did a whole series of the posts of the violence in the Philippines and comparisons with the Deep South (part 1, part 2, and part 3). Last year, I did a blog post about lessons from the Philippines as the government was entering news negotiations with the insurgents/terrorists in Mindanao. There has been political chaos (just read the headlines of the stories for an idea) over a proposed deal in the Philippines (constitutional amendments, court action, opposition against, split in the insurgent/terrorist movements, attacks on the military etc) which the Thai government should look at carefully. For more on this see this article below:

A controversial peace deal with Islamic separatists in the southern Philippines is in jeopardy after hundreds of radicals killed more than 30 people in attacks on several Christian-majority towns, shooting and hacking their victims to death.

The Philippine military said Wednesday it was taking “aggressive action” against members of the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) responsible for the bloodshed.

Armed Forces chief Gen. Alexander Yano was dismissive of claims by the MILF leadership that the atrocities had been carried out by rebel commanders who were not acting under the group's orders.

“If they cannot control [their men] then the government will certainly control them and we will undertake our mandate to protect the people and the communities,” he said in a television interview.

Officials said the MILF fighters on Monday went on a shooting, hostage-taking and house-torching spree through several towns in two provinces of Mindanao, the large island in the south of the predominantly Catholic Philippines. Among the dead was a senior army officer.

Muslims (“Moros”) in the south have been fighting for four decades for independence, and more than 100,000 lives have been lost.

In the early 1990s, a partially self-governing entity known as the Autonomous Region of Muslim Mindanao (ARMM) was established, comprising a handful of provinces in Mindanao.

The government subsequently reached a peace agreement with a longstanding separatist group, the Moro National Liberation Front (MNLF) but the MILF, an 11,000-strong offshoot, continued its armed campaign.

Years of negotiations with the MILF looked set late last month to lead to an agreement to enlarge the ARMM by incorporating neighboring provinces, and also to further expand its political and economic powers.

But the plan ran into protests by local government officials whose areas were slated to join the ARMM, Christians concerned about fresh interreligious violence, and lawmakers worried about the impact on national sovereignty.

Last-minute court action temporarily stopped the deal on August 4, shortly before the government and MILF were due to hold a formal signing ceremony. Security rapidly deteriorated.

Despite a ceasefire, hundreds of MILF fighters seized control of a number of mainly Christian villages in a neighboring province the group wants incorporated into the ARMM, razing dozens of homes and displacing tens of thousands of residents.

The military then issued a deadline for the rebels to withdraw from the villages and when it passed, mounted an offensive to expel them. That fighting reportedly left more than two dozen MILF members and soldiers dead.

After an uneasy calm and as displaced villagers made their way home, more violence erupted when MILF fighters ambushed soldiers and on Monday launched attacks in two other Mindanao provinces.

Top MILF officials have painted the violence as the work of uncontrollable commanders frustrated by the delays in the territorial deal.

“Some of our commanders are frustrated over the deliberate, orchestrated delay of the peace talks by the government,” a senior leader, Khaled Musa, said in a statement cited on a MILF Web site on Wednesday. “They did these things without clearance from us.”

Government officials, however, appear skeptical.

President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo’s press secretary, J.G. Dureza, in a radio interview surmised that the MILF may be trying to use by attacks by ostensible renegades as a “pressure tactic” to force the government to sign the pending agreement.

He said the government was now reviewing whether it could go ahead with the agreement at all, given the likelihood that some MILF members would refuse to abide by it even if it was signed.

Islamic bloc silent

Regional security experts view the future stability of Mindanao as a matter of importance, in part, because of militants’ hopes to establish a regional Islamic super state encompassing the southern Philippines as well as Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore and parts of Thailand.

Jemaah Islamiah (JI), a terrorist network experts call the regional “proxy” or “affiliate” of al-Qaeda, has such a super state as its long-term goal.

An editorial in the Manila Times last week voiced concern about what it called a process of “Islamization,” not just in the ARMM but also spreading to other parts of the country.

While a banner atop the MILF Web site cites a “struggle for the right of self-determination and freedom,” jihadist rhetoric and terminology are also present.

A MILF fighter who goes by the name of Commander Bravo told a Mindanao radio station Wednesday that his “mujahideen” had carried out Monday’s attacks because they were angry over the aborted land agreement.

Declaring an “all-out war” against the government, he said “we are prepared to kill, we are prepared to be killed.”

“What the Muslims want is Islamic justice in Mindanao,” Bravo said. “In the eyes of Allah we are not terrorists.”

The country’s Commission on Human Rights (CHR), an independent statutory body, on Tuesday slammed the MILF.

“It is a terrorist act when you sow fear in communities and the MILF’s attacks are actually sowing fear in many villages and nearby cities,” CHR head Leila de Lima told a press conference.

She said the MILF leadership should go beyond distancing itself from the violence, and hand over the commanders it says are responsible for the atrocities.

BP: I am not saying the government should never negotiate, but int he Phillipines a peace deal was first signed in 1976 and then a more formal agreement was signed in 1996. Yet the violence continues. When you are dealing with people who have no real constituency and have no accountability to voters, they have the upper hand in negotiations. If the government is willing to give more forms of autonomy (being a directly elected governor or some form short of independence) then just do so in consultation with elected representatives in the area who can represent the will of the voters. I don't have such a problem with an amnesty and it can be used to separate the insurgents/terrorists who are seemingly* trapped and acts as a divide and conquer type policy.

*There was a TV news segment on TPBS last night where they spoke to a member of the RKK (name for one the groups operating in the Deep South) who is now assisting authorities. He said he had wanted to leave the movement, but was threatened that they would kill his whole family if he did. He said there were others like him. An amnesty can help people who really want to give up - I think a condition of the amnesty is that they must assist authorities in providing information and intelligence and confess to what they have done. I accept you have a problem of moral hazard, but I see a much greater problem in serious negotiations leading to a formal agreement.

Today's "reference of the day" is which I have been pondering about whether to post for a while. It is a link (no photos are in this post) which contains graphic pictures of those who have been killed in the Deep South. First, though an explanation on why I am even linking to this. Thinking about whether to post the link to the pictures or not there are two reasons why.

First, graphic photos are common-place in Thailand, but these photos go a level beyond this. They are still similar to what many Thais see through the various magazines in Thailand with graphic photos of crimes (these magazines are very graphic). Second. I also think give the scale of the violence in the Deep South, the number of locals there who have witnessed a violent attack is much greater than readers of this blog. This goes to the fear of terrorism which is on display in the South through the extremely violent attacks staged by the insurgents/terrorists in the Deep South. Beheadings (see also my posts here and here) and attempted beheadings, where the perpetrators hack the body in a frenzy, have been increasing.

Actually, I am posting a link to another site which has the photos, but has slightly censored them. You can find the link to the original uncensored photos on that site. Needless to say the uncensored photos are extremely graphic.

Sri Lanka Ministry of Defence:

One of Norway's biggest non-government organizations which is alleged used by the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) for its terrorist activities is also learnt was accused of secretly smuggling in weapons for at least another insurgency in Sudan in the past, according to Ministry of Defence sources.

Several political parties in Sri Lanka, in the past, have accused the Norwegian government of using its aid outlets like Red Barna, to aid the LTTE. The Norway government has been accused of training covertly the LTTE frogmen in underwater warfare at secret locations in Thailand in the past.

BP: I wonder whether they think the Thai government was complicit

btw, on LTTE and Thailand, see this commentary at CSIS and from this Indian magazine.

Bangkok Post:

Mr Newin, one of the Thai Rak Thai (TRT) executives banned from politics for five years from May 2007 as a result of TRT's dissolution for electoral fraud, provides Mr Samak with much-needed political security. He is the commanding figure behind one of the largest factions, predominantly controlled by northeastern MPs in the PPP, while Mr Samak came into the party without a solid support base.

He is also said to have put himself forward as the only true link the PPP has with Mr Thaksin, now a fugitive in London. Mr Samak has not been listening to the other prominent TRT stalwarts who were closely tied to Mr Thaksin.

Mr Newin has joined hands and forged an alliance with Chaiya Sasomsab, leader of the PPP faction dominating constituencies in the Central Plains and also with Santi Promphat, now chief of a large pool of northern MPs.

The alliances have given Mr Newin the confidence to believe that he has PPP wrapped around his little finger.

Mr Samak, in the meantime, has sent Mr Theerapol to coordinate with Mr Newin. The Newin-Theerapol combination has wielded such an enormous amount of influence that it was able to decide who was in or out in the recent cabinet reshuffle.

Outside parliament, Mr Newin has many friends in pressure groups operating behind the front of anti-dictatorship activists who are aligned to him.

"Mr Newin loves the power game," a source close to Mr Thaksin said, confirming that the influence of Buri Ram's favourite son is growing rapidly within the government.

BP: Santi has been in the news recently.

Now, that the "evil one" has fled, we can have a new era of politics as The Nation outlines:

Chonsawat Asavahame, son of the fugitive former politician Vatana, was appointed by the Cabinet on Tuesday as deputy secretary general to ICT Minister and Deputy Premier Mun Patanotai.

Fugitive Vatana's son appointed

Mun is a deputy leader of the Puea Pandin Party, which Vatana was chairman of.

The Supreme Court's Criminal Division for Political Office Holders sentenced Vatana to 10 years' jail on Monday for a corruption related to the Klong Dan wastewater treatment plant.

Mun yesterday defended Chonsawat's tainted record, saying he had learnt from "past mistakes", as well as his stint as mayor of Samut Prakan province.

"I have known him since he was young; he was a good boy and obedient. I am just like his uncle for the past 30 years," Mun said. "I ask him to be patient, not hotheaded, and to face problems with coolness. I think the mission is not too hard for him".

Last year, Chonsawat was accused of assaulting a traffic policeman when the officer tried to stop his vehicle at a checkpoint set up to screen drunk drivers.

Mun said yesterday he had talked to Vatana before the court made its ruling on Monday.

"I think he knew that it's difficult for him to return. He is aware of the fact and accepts it," he said.

Mun said Vatana had told him he expected a jail sentence.

"He is old now. It's better for him to find somewhere to rest than to fight a court battle. This case's statute of limitation is 15 years. I think Vatana will fade away from society. He no longer has any role now," Mun said.

BP: Nice to see the party that the coup leaders backed showing us that the coup was worth and we are now in a new era of politics in Thailand.

More seriously, how did the public react to Chalerm's children? I think we will see a similar, albeit less high profile reaction. The Bangkok Post previewed it last Thursday:

Since he took office at the ICT Ministry, he has been known as a representative of Mr Vatana. Whatever happened at the ministry, or to people involved in any projects or agencies under the ministry, all came under the eye of Mr Vatana, who seemed to have the final say.

Some claim that people close to Mr Vatana were given important jobs or projects during Mr Mun's tenure.

Mr Mun has not denied such rumours. He always said capable, well-educated younger people wanted to assist at the ministry once they learned that a senior relative was appointed there.

"But I have never forced officials or any agencies to follow the advice of those young people, several of them from the Asavahame and Patanotai families," he said, adding that everything followed proper procedures.

Not all the work he handled at the ministry went smoothly.

I have a post at StrategyPage on the increase on the Thai "surge" and change in counterinsurgency. Introduction:

A Thai-style surge campaign, and change in counter-insurgency strategy, has lead to more than 50 percent reduction in violence in the first 6 months of 2008. Terrorism over the previous 4 years was threatening to get out of control, with some areas becoming no-go zone areas.

In 2004, there was a dramatic upsurge in the violence perpetrated by Islamic terrorists in the three southern provinces ("Deep South") of Thailand which border Malaysia. The population of these three provinces is 1.8 million and Muslims make up around 75% of the population whereas the rest of Thailand is 95% Buddhist.

From January 2004 until December 2007 there had been average of 160 terrorist incidents (assassinations, bombings etc) per month in the Deep South, but this reduced significantly to less than 60 incidents per month in the first 6 months of 2008. The number of killed or injured had gradually increased from 120 per month in 2004 to 200 a month in 2007, but this has halved to 100 per month in the first 6 months of 2008.

BP: The site's style guide does not allow to footnote references, but amongst the references used were Southern comfort - Thai insurgency falters (subscription only), statistics from this post, this NYT article, this AFP article, and information from a few posts of mine.

A reader has alerted to me a new article in The Strait Times by their Thailand correspondent Nirmal Ghosh. Key excerpts:

Conscious of vocal nationalists on both sides, the ministers will be looking for both legal and face-saving solutions to border disputes, starting with the one over the ancient temple of Preah Vihear.

Even though tension at Preah Vihear is now lower with most troops withdrawn by both sides last Friday, it is a challenge to sort out boundary issues, not least because nationalists in both countries have eclipsed the voices of liberals and objective scholars.

Thai historian Charnvit Kasetsri, a former rector of Thammasat University, and Chulalongkorn University's political science professor Puangthong Pawakapan have been on a lonely campaign across university campuses to inform young Thais about the realities of history.

Often, the Thai media has twisted and distorted what the two have said.

It is a complex reality, of the rise and fall of kingdoms and armies, and the expansion and contraction of territories, with each country - including Laos - seeing history through its own prism.

Asean was designed to transcend this fraught past. Currently, Thailand has chosen the bilateral path - no less a test for the architecture of regional treaties, meetings and joint commissions which are supposed to prevent conflict.

Major parts of modern Thailand were once under the sway of ancient kingdoms in Laos and Cambodia. When the kingdom of Siam rose, tables were turned and, at one time, parts of Cambodia such as Battambang and Siem Reap were under the kings of Siam.

But most Thais grow up learning only about the high points of their country's history. School textbooks often contain outright fictions, fuelling a sense of wounded history and what Professor Puangthong calls the 'love-hate relationship' between Thailand and Cambodia.

For instance, generations of Thai students have been told that the Khmer King Satha attacked Ayutthaya while Siam was busy fighting the Burmese. But Siam's King Naresuan defeated and personally executed him, washing his own feet in King Satha's blood, the students are told.

King Naresuan today figures prominently on the banners and T-shirts of the nationalist-royalist People's Alliance for Democracy, which raised the Preah Vihear issue in its months of ongoing anti-government street protests in Bangkok.

But the story is fictitious; King Satha was able to escape to Laos.

BP: For more on the on the Naresuan revivial movement and Thai textbooks see Chang Noi.

The article continues:

Thai children also do not learn that a king of Siam once burned down Phnom Penh. They do not learn that Thailand supported the genocidal Khmer Rouge.

These gaps and fictions leave relationships dogged by false stereotypes.

Thais, for example, look down on Lao culture - a fact resented by Lao people. And Thais view Cambodians as 'untrustworthy and ungrateful', says Prof Puangthong.

But Thailand's court rituals are in Khmer, and though school books say Thai script was invented by King Ramkhamhaeng of Sukhothai in northern Thailand, the truth is Thai is a simplified form of Khmer.

The tension over Khmer culture goes back a long time. During the reign of King Mongkut - Rama IV of the Chakri dynasty - he sent Thai troops to take apart a Khmer temple in Angkor and cart it back to reassemble in Bangkok.

Local Khmers attacked the troops to protect the temple. A court official dissuaded King Mongkut from sending reinforcements, saying the temple was a complicated structure in any case and not worth the trouble.

'It appears to be quite difficult for the Thai elite to admit that a country such as Cambodia, so poor (and) war torn...could own such a great civilisation like Angkor,' Prof Puangthong told an audience last week at the Foreign Correspondents Club of Thailand (FCCT).

Occasional paroxysms of nationalism complicate the fundamental rivalry.

During World War II, for instance, Thailand's Field Marshal Plaek Pibulsongkram depicted the French as wolves and Thailand as a lamb, and started a campaign for the return to Thailand of Cambodia's Battambang and Siem Reap.

When the International Court of Justice ruled in 1962 that Preah Vihear - which Thais call Phra Vihar in a different pronunciation of the same name - belonged to Cambodia on the basis of a map drawn up by the French, Thais blamed the defeat not on their legal team but on Cambodia's King Sihanouk.

'What is of deep concern...is that the hostile attitude towards Cambodia is not limited to Thai elites but widespread among Thai people in general - and it seems to be the case for the Cambodian attitude towards Thailand as well,' Prof Puangthong said.

Cambodian media and the blogosphere have matched Thai nationalists abuse for abuse, and ahead of the Hua Hin talks, Cambodian nationalists yesterday held a demonstration in Phnom Penh denouncing Thai 'thuggery'.

Late last month, as troops massed at Preah Vihear, telethons in Cambodia raised funds to help fight off the Thais. In Phnom Penh markets, vendors refused to stock Thai fruit, saying it was poisonous.

'This quarrel is nonsensical,' Dr Sumet Jumsai, one of Thailand's foremost scholar-architects, said at the FCCT forum.

In a letter to the Thai media on July 26, he wrote: 'Neither (domestic politics nor nationalism) has anything to do with history and, in this case, architecture, which none of the vociferous parties involved has shown any appreciation for.'

He said at the forum: 'Phra Vihar is one of the most stunning monuments ever devised by man. It belongs to mankind.

'All these (Thai) ultra-nationalists may one day be reborn as Khmers,' he quipped.

BP: That final quip was amusing. Does Cambodia have any such scholars who are concerned about Khmer nationalism?

btw, Fonzi has a copy of Sumet's letter to the Bangkok Post. It is worth reading.

The Nation:

A group of 200 MPs from the People Power Party circulated Monday an open letter demanding to know why the police were distributing warrants for the arrest of former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra and his wife Khunying Pojaman.

"The letter wants Prime Minister Samak Sundaravej to explain why the police has been encouraged to openly treat Thaksin and Pojaman like ordinary criminals," MP Songkhram Kitlertpairoj said.

He and his fellow MPs would be asking the premier to justify his actions at the party meeting today.

"If Samak doesn't show up, we will record our thoughts and criticism on video and give it to later," he said.

At this juncture, he said, the MPs needed to hear Samak's rebuttals before deciding their next move. However, he dismissed speculation about there being any attempts to remove Samak from his post as party leader.

Deputy Transport Minister Songsak Thongsri said the party's faction led by Newin Chidchob still saw Samak as the most qualified person as prime minister. However, he added, that Samak could have been approached for an explanation directly instead of the MPs releasing an open letter endorsed by 200 signatures.

He said his faction was in no way involved in the letter nor in the formation of the Puea Thai Party, seen as a backup in case the main coalition party is dissolved.

MP Paijit Sriworakan from the Isaan Pattana faction said he had cosigned the letter because his faction wanted to question the mistreatment inflicted upon Thaksin.

BP: It is becoming clearer this is a factional thing. Either that or a ploy to make Samak look good as he could not seen as a Thaksin puppet, but I don't think that is their intention. When Thaksin returned to the country in February and was actually arrested, there was not this type of reaction. Now that he is safely in the UK, they have a problem that Samak somehow encouraged the police. I think in reality it is express anger at Samak by the faction's poor showing in the latest Cabinet reshuffle and a show of strength to tell the Gang of Four that they cannot be ignored.

The Gang of Four seems cautious, when lead me wondering if PPP has around 230 MPs, did only 30 not sign? Actually, the "about 200 MPs" is not a reference to only current MPs, but according to Matichon article it includes former MPs. I wonder whether candidates are included too.

Also from Matichon, Deputy Transport Minister Songsak Thongsri attended the meeting as representative of Newin's faction to find out the reasons for them signing the letter. The head of the Isan Pattana faction said they signed their names to express to the PM how much they are concerned about Thaksin. It was not to pressure Samak, but merely the exchange of ideas as is common the party. When asked when they would submit a complaint to the NCCC about someone close to Samak being involved in corruption, the answer was, "when it is appropriate" (
ขอดูความเหมาะสม). One Chiang Mai MP said the letter was sent to Samak in his capacity as party leader, not as PM. One MP wants an investigation into the police actions as well.

The article continues:

Chiang Mai MP Surapong Towijakchaikul said he and other MPs from the North and Northeast were ready to go under the banner of the Puea Thai Party if their main coalition party were to be disbanded.

"If Samak decides to call a snap election before PPP is dissolved, then the MPs will immediately adopt the Puea Thai banner," he said.

Meanwhile, Khunying Pojanee na Pomphet, Thaksin's motherinlaw, had lunch with several PPP MPs yesterday, but refused to talk to reporters.

Party sources said Pojanee often had lunch with some party officials and MPs because the party's headquarters are located in a building owned by her daughter Pojaman.

Meanwhile, Deputy Prime Minister and Education Minister Somchai Wongsawat encouraged the move to ask Samak about the arrest warrants, though he denied that it was in any way a showdown between factions in the party and neither was it a move to pressure or challenge Samak's leadership.

Somchai said the MPs just wanted to know why the Royal Thai Police was allowed to humiliate Thaksin and his wife by distributing arrest warrants for them nationwide when they clearly knew that the couple were living in Britain

BP: Somchai doesn't seem to be in the Gang of Four faction. I doubt it was a mere coincidence that Thaksin's mother-in-law turned up today.

It is interesting that the Northern MPs - who I would assume would not be in the Newin faction - are going to join Puea Thai. There was a Thai Rath article yesterday mentioning that one of Sudarat's faction said they would do the same. What about Isan Patana though? Thai Rath's political analysis notes that in Pichit province that PPP has already moved to Puea Thai banner. This was done by a PPP candidate who is part of Pongsak Raktapongpisak's faction.* Pongsak is known to be close to the "Big Boss" [Thaksin] so who will the real successor be?

BP: Pongsak is in Thaksin's inner circle then again Newin was meant to as well. All we know for sure is the situation is very "fluid" so it is unlikely there will be a quick conclusion.

The Nation has some good analysis here.

*It uses the phrase เด็กในสังกัด which one could interpret in other ways!

I have previously blogged on Daranee Chanchoengsilapakul ("Da Torpedo") who was arrested last month on committing lese majeste charges, but had been denied bail and is still detained. Prachatai has an update:

Outspoken anti-coup activist has been detained in prison since July 22. Two attempts have been made to post bail for her, but have failed.

Daranee Charncherngsilpakul, aka Da Torpedo, said that her close associates were seeking lawyers for her, and she had yet to see one. She wanted to be granted bail like Sondhi Limthongkul, leader of the People’s Alliance for Democracy (PAD), who was charged for the same offence for repeating her remarks, but got bail immediately. Unlike Sondhi, she said that she was arrested without a summons being issued first.

Daranee said that if she were to get bailed, she would not front the struggle for democracy anymore, because she felt hurt by the inaction of her fellow activists and the elected government only cared for its survival.

“It’s such a great pain that I am put into jail during the time of a democratically elected government,” said Daranee.

She insisted that Thai society needed to have the King as Head of state, like Japan and the UK whose monarchies are above politics. And Thai society should not allow the junta, the PAD, or anybody else to use the institution for political agitation among the public. Under a democracy, one needs to respect the rules, and it needs time for changes, she said.

BP: Will she ever be granted bail?

The article continues:

Sondhi Limthongkul, Thaksin’s friend-turned-foe, was also charged with the same offence for repeating on the PAD stage on the night of July 20 what Daranee had said. On July 24, accompanied by about 500 PAD supporters, he reported to the police and was immediately released on bail, guaranteed by Senator Kamnoon Sitthisaman, his employee at the Manager Media Group, despite the Metropolitan Police Commander’s previous claim of ‘one standard’. Gen Pathompong Kesornsuk, Supreme Command’s Advisory Committee Chairperson, was reportedly also present at the police interrogation of Sondhi, claiming to be Sondhi’s witness. Gen Pathompong, a close aide of Privy Councillor Chairperson Gen Prem Tinasulanonda, had previously appeared on the PAD stage, claiming Gen Prem’s consent and urging his fellow soldiers to follow suit.

BP: I have previously blogged on Gen. Pathompong, but I have never read about the Prem connection before. Google doesn't bring up anything either. It would be turn of events if it was true, but I can find no other source. Anyone?

UPDATE: Matichon says an 8-1 decision.

I have blogged previously on the Vatana Klong Dan case, but today the Supreme Court has sentenced him to 10 years* for breach of Section 148 of the Criminal Code in the Klong Dan corruption case. The Deputy Chief of Police says they are certain that Vatana is in Cambodia and that they are considering whether the case falls within the Thai-Cambodia extradition treaty.

BP: I will be waiting for newspaper op-eds demanding the Foreign Ministry cancel his passport and the PAD to start protesting outside the Cambodia Embassy....

*I was reading the other day the minimum sentence is 5 years.

Suranand had an interesting op-ed in the Bangkok Post on Friday on the end of Thaksin. Key excerpts:

The public saw TRT as an alternative as they were bored with the slow "business as usual" politics of the ruling Democrats. TRT proposed a progressive economic stimulus agenda to solve the lingering woes. That, coupled with a list of credible new faces joining the party, was how TRT gained the trust of the nation.

The TRT won the 2001 election handily, with 248 seats out of 500 in parliament, and Mr Thaksin became the first elected prime minister to last a full four-year term. The TRT won again in the 2005 election, gaining 377 seats, the first time in Thai history that a political party had an absolute majority and formed a single-party government.

Throughout, the public was willing to overlook the small "honest mistake" Mr Thaksin made in his assets declaration and the unusual share transfers, which was taken up by the National Counter Corruption Commission (NCCC) and the Constitution Court.

He survived the ordeal in 2001 by a hair margin, but the storm continued to gather.

Meanwhile, Mr Thaksin's rule was characterised as fast, sharp and decisive. He provided a "hands on" leadership style and managed the government using modern management techniques. The "populist" programmes were popular especially with the poor and the people in the Northeast because they felt that previous governments had ignored them completely.

As his power grew, he became over-confident. Already collecting a fair share of enemies as he introduced radical changes in the bureaucracy, he further upset the status quo by antagonising many other interest groups, including the old establishment and the intellectuals, which were actually his early supporters.

It is an undeniable human reality that to be rich is one thing, to be powerful is another. But to be both extremely rich and powerful embedded in one popular politician was deemed too dangerous and distrustful.
...
In hindsight, it also was Mr Thaksin's own ethical dilemma that became his undoing. Although he started his political path with creative ideas and supposedly good intentions, he could never entirely separate his public life from that of his business.

His shareholdings and financial dealings tangled with him throughout his political career.

To be fair, one cannot fully deny that, though not adhering to good governance, what Mr Thaksin did with his shares and how his companies utilised "innovative" tax planning, were normal practices for many businesses here in Thailand.

However, he was not a normal businessman. He chose to be a public figure, and was elected to hold the highest office in government. Thais trusted him because they were led to believe that a billionaire who possessed all his worldly needs would not be corrupt, as he promised so in his campaigns.

But as the financing of his businesses was perceived as being indistinct from the financing of political ambitions, and as the power of government seemed to benefit selected businesses, that trust was lost.

I sincerely hope that history will be kinder to Mr Thaksin and give due credit to his accomplishments while, of course, apprehending his failure to recognise the complex moral issues that led him to the end of the political road.

BP: I agree. His victory in 2005 seemed to go to his head. By this time, he had began to accumulate detractors and resorted to lawsuits which were a political mistake, particularly as he had to back down.

On his business, I think the share size of his family's shareholdings in such a large company, unnecessarily hampered telecommunications regulation and further liberalization in the country. Even when his government changed the regulations, which previously put his rivals at a disadvantage, to provide a more even playing field, the AEC/ASC were still going after him and The Nation would label it "policy corruption". The result of those horrible changes in 2001 was to open up the pre-paid market which opened the market up to the masses and brought phone prices and average monthly charges down dramatically. Of course, this was just as "populist" as mobile phones were no longer a "snob toy" of the elite.*

DISCLOSURE: Yes, I owned a mobile phone in Thailand prior to 2001!

Thanong:

In 2006, he was sent a strong signal to step down to relieve the political tension in the aftermath of his family's sale of Shin Corp to Temasek Holdings of Singapore. A civil war seemed inevitable. But Thaksin would not budge. The whole country was grounded. Eventually, the military staged a coup to remove Thaksin from power.

In 1973, Field Marshal Thanom Kittikachorn, then prime minister, was also given a similar signal to resign after students were killed on Rajdamnoen Avenue. The student uprising during that period pushed Thailand into a new era of hard-fought democracy. After the bloodshed, Thanom lost his legitimacy to rule. Thanom concurred. He left his office in disgrace and slipped out of the country, but with the understanding that he would be allowed to return home once the political situation improved. Thanom did return home, retired from politics and died in Thailand.

In the May 1992 tragedy, street demonstrations were held against the Suchinda regime. The government made a blatant error by using force to subdue the crowd. Again, with the bloodshed, Suchinda lost his legitimacy to serve as prime minister. The country could not move forward. Suchinda got a signal to step down. In return, Suchinda got a deal that he and his people would not receive any punishment. Suchinda resigned from his brief premiership, washed his hands off politics and saved the country from further turmoil. He recently celebrated his 75 birthday.

Thaksin was in the same situation as Thanom and Suchinda. A big difference was that Thanom and Suchinda faced a civil war and bloodshed, while the street demonstrations against Thaksin had not yet reached the point of civil war, although they almost had. With his strong political mandate, Thaksin thought that he could overwhelm any forces against him, even though he had lost his legitimacy to rule following the sale of Shin Corp.

The military under General Sonthi Boonyaratglin staged a coup before the bloodshed took place. It was a "polite coup", costly and with the sole objective of removing Thaksin from power. If Thaksin had decided to stay away from politics, he would have been able to return home afterward. The court cases against him would have been watered down or dropped along the way.

BP: Almost civil war? Thanong is still pushing there would be bloodshed on September 20 meme.

btw, on the article's main point on Thaksin making a mistake in coming back to Thailand, I agree. The pressure to extradite would still be there from the PAD, but his wife wouldn't have been convicted as the trial wouldn't have gone ahead. As public prosecutors under Surayud concluded, the evidence was too weak to extradite him. He took a gamble in coming back, but it didn't pay off.

Thai Rath's political analysis says that according to Kasikorn Research the political situation in Thailand should get better and there should be increased investment because of Thailand going to the UK. However, Thai Rath's editorial is skeptical on whether Thaksin will really give up politics given he has made such statements before in the past and that he can used nominees, but that it still might cause a reduction in political problems as PAD are protesting against Thaksinocracy and if there is Thaksinocracy, what are they fighting against?

The Bangkok Post:

"If Thaksin is ousted from the country, his colleagues may split into many parts and many groups,' said Porranee Tongyen, head of research at Asia Plus Securities Pcl., the third-largest Thai broker by market capitalisation. "That should make Thai politics more stable.'

BP: Actually, shouldn't the splitting of PPP into many groups make politics less stable?

Bangkok Post:

Chulalongkorn's Chaiyant Chaiyaporn and Sombat Thamrongthanyawong, the rector of the National Institute of Development Administration, doubted Mr Thaksin would end his role in politics despite living outside Thailand.

''Keep a watch on the coming military reshuffle. If his trusted associates are in power, he may come back,'' Mr Chaiyant said.

Mr Thaksin could still pull strings through former members of the dissolved Thai Rak Thai, he added.

VOA:

Sunai Pasuk, a representative for Human Rights Watch, says many supporters, who appreciated Mr. Thaksin's programs for the poor, will believe he has been badly treated.

"Well, indeed escape to England this time has turned Thaksin into a political martyr which will serve to maintain the strength of his party," he said.
...
Chris Baker, an author and analyst on Thailand, thinks the protests may ease with Mr. Thaksin gone.

"Yes, I think it's significantly calmed down now," he said. "My guess is that the Samak government will survive for quite a long time, much longer than many people suspect."

BP: That final point will depend on the party dissolution case, but I agree. Samak has managed the coalition relations well, it is really relations in his own party that is the problem. If he can manage those and PPP is not dissolved then he can be around much longer than you think.

Asia Times:

Thaksin seems to have made the right decision for himself. It is better for him to live abroad with all his riches than live in a Thai prison," says Michael Nelson, a German academic specializing in Thai political culture. "It may not be easy for him to return to politics in the future because there may be more verdicts against him and there will be the arrest warrants."

BP: PAD don't look like they are stopping their protests. They aim to get rid of Thaksinocracy, which they seem Samak is the successor of. They might get some traction of the constitution amendment, but their lack of coverage recently shows how irrelevant they have become compared with a couple of months ago.

The Nation:

People Power Party members yesterday vented their anger at Prime Minister Samak Sunda-ravej for failing to protect the reputation of ousted premier Thaksin Shinawatra.

Almost 200 party MPs and election candidates signed a letter urging Samak to clarify why police needed to circulate arrest warrants throughout the country with pictures of Thaksin and wife Pojaman.

They said the move was "disturbing" to many Thaksin supporters throughout the country.
About 40 MPs and party members from all regions met yesterday at the party headquarters.

Among those present were Yasothon MP Peeraphan Phalusuk, Chiang Mai MP Suraphong Tovichakchaikul, Bangkok MP Anusorn Panthong and Samut Prakan MP Natee Sutinphuak, an actor better known as Krung Sriwilai.

Peeraphan told a press conference after the meeting that their reaction reflected the general sentiment of people in their constituencies.

Suraphong said that almost 200 MPs and party members have signed the written request.

It will be presented to Samak tomorrow and they expect Samak to clarify the matter in person during a party meeting on Tuesday.

The group claimed many Thaksin supporters were disturbed and unhappy about the development. They agreed that Thaksin was treated unfairly as he has not |been convicted of any wrong-|doing, according to Peeraphan.

They also argued that Thaksin, as a former national leader who had contributed to the country, did not deserve to be treated as a criminal.

Bangkok Post:

About 40 current and former MPs joined hands by signing a complaint demanding Mr Samak explain at a party meeting on Tuesday his silence when an arrest warrant was issued for Mr Thaksin and his wife Khunying Potjaman.

Their main disappointment was that Prime Minister Samak, who oversees the National Police Commission, did not stop police from adding the couple to the wanted list and circulating warrants around the country.

What the police did was intended to discredit and damage the former prime minister, despite his contributions to the country, said Yasothorn MP Peerapan Palusuk.

Mr Samak should have taken a position to stop the police action, PPP MP Wattana Sengpairoh added.

A PPP faction led by Newin Chidchob remained cautious about supporting the decision of their party fellows who were unhappy about the treatment of the prime minister, said Supachai Phosu, an MP for Nakhon Phanom and party deputy spokesman.

But Mr Supachai admitted that he was not satisfied with the decision by police to vilify the former prime minister.

BP: First, if both articles are correct, it would seem only 40 were current and former MPs whereas the remaining 160 were election candidates? Strength of number is obviously key. How many current PPP MPs actually signed the statement? Which faction did the signatories belong to? I think it is more likely factional infighting between Isan Patana vs Gang of Four with Isan Patana with what seems* Isan Patana trying to show they are the grouping who will "protect" Thaksin.

Second, on Samak preventing the police publicizing the arrest warrants as it vilifies or discredits Thaksin seems a nonsensical argument. There is no question that arrest warrants have been issued for Thaksin and Co and this fact has also ready been widely publicised so further dissemination is hardly vilifying the former PM. Although, I do wonder on the practical purpose of further dissemination. Is anyone unsure of what Thaksin and his wife look like? Why issue it only after confirmation through photos that they are already in the UK? No doubt the police wanted to be seen to be acting without fear or favour, but why not publicize the issuing of an arrest warrant against Vatana? He is on the Thai/Cambodian border and could easily sneak back into the country unrecognized.**

*It is hard to know as we don't know exactly who the signatories were or even who the members of the various factions are.

**The decision in that case will be handed down tomorrow.

Bkk Mindscape blogs:

Thai television stations have rushed to clinch deals for first rights to interview Olympic gold medal winner Prapawadee Jaroenrattanatarakoon, who returned to Thailand on Friday from the Beijing Games.

News outlets will have to open their chequebooks if they want her to appear, at least as long as the novelty lasts.
...
One report in the Thai media says up to 600 people turned out, including 200 journalists.
...
She and her entourage then took a flight to Chiang Mai, where a victory parade and homecoming function at a local hotel were abruptly cancelled, supposedly because Nong Kae was tired.

She also wanted to wait until the rest of Thailand's Olympics team had returned.

Thai Amateur Weightlifting Association president Bussaba Yodbangtoey and her husband Maj-Gen Intharat, the association's 'chief adviser', whisked her off to her training camp. Yesterday, Bussaba stopped responding to journalists' questions and switched off her cellphone.

Why the silence? It is tempting to assume that Nong Kae's handlers want to keep her out of the public spotlight before she appears on television tomorrow, in two highly publicised television interviews for which the broadcasters get 'exclusive' rights. Both sides want to maximise the income they can earn from Nong Kae's gold-medal win.

Presenter Sorrayuth Suthassanachinda will interview Nong Kae on Channel 3, as will his old co-host Kanok Rattanawongsakul, on Channel 7.

Sorrayuth has confirmed that he will interview Nong Kae, for his show Ruang Lao Chao Ni (เรื่องเล่าเช้านี้), and speculation on webboards is that Kanok has secured rights to another interview she will carry out on the same day, for his show Jamuk Mot (จมูกมด).

Handler Bussaba Yodbangtoey says Nong Kae will appear on both programmes, because they are stable news shows popular with viewers.

Both programmes will have sold heavy advertising and secured sponsors for the interview, so will not lose out even if they had to resort to 'chequebook journalism' to get her into the studio.

According to a television item on Modernine News, one channel has agreed to pay B200,000 for the rights to interview her first, and the other channel, B100,000. They are likely to be followed by appearances on talk shows, game shows, and in magazines, depending on who offers the most.

BP: There are some other interesting themes in the post, but it is chequebook journalism which interests me. Such payments are common overseas so it will be interesting to see if it becomes commonplace in Thailand. How much would they pay for a Thaksin interview?

Today's reference of the day is an interesting Master of Arts thesis by Sara Jones entitled, "FRAMING THE VIOLENCE IN SOUTHERN THAILAND: THREE WAVES OF MALAY-MUSLIM SEPARATISM". (PDF) (UPDATE: Try this link)

A brief summary:

This thesis examines how the Thai newspaper, The Nation (an English-language daily), portrays the violence in the Malay-Muslim South through the use of agenda setting concepts and framing analyses in articles published about four events in 2004. Two of the events are examples of state aggression against southern insurgents whereas the other two are instances in which southern insurgents were the primary aggressors against the state and/or citizens.

BP: Actually, what I found interesting was her comparison in Appendix A between the Thai language (Matichon Weekly) and the English language media (The Nation). On page 112-113:

A comparative analysis of Thai English-language and Thai-language print media’s reporting on the same events produced interesting results. Not only are the Thai language reports more contextualized for a Thai audience but also in many cases they contain much greater detail than the English-language reports. This small analysis only serves to illustrate the beginning of a hypothesis, that English-language reporting is skewed due to the target audience—non-Thais. There is information contained in Thai-language reports that may never appear in English-language reports, this may be a face saving technique on the part of the Thai media. However, due to the present availability of technology throughout the world information can be spread much more quickly and accurately (or inaccurately) than ever before. Then we must ask, is the face-saving technique a viable answer? We must also ask, does the world outside of Thailand care about these minute details or are they more concerned with overarching human rights abuses?

BP: The author outlines in Appendix A some of the key details that The Nation missed in their 28 articles on Tak Bai. I must say it is difficult to really get a good understanding of some issues if you depend on only the English language media. I must say I am amazed on the number of journal articles, papers, and books written about Thailand, particularly the violence in the Deep South, where the authors have no or very little reference to Thai language material. Usually, the end product shows as it is short on context and details which leads to the analysis being all over the place. I should note for newspaper articles, I don't think it is such an issue as I know of foreign journalists who live in Thailand and report on Thailand and their coverage is excellent - often they have a Thai assistant or report together with a Thai.

In relation to the violence in the Deep South, Michael Connors talked about this in War on Error and the Southern Fire: How Terrorism Experts Get it Wrong', Critical Asian Studies, 38, 151-175. He has a snippet of the article on his blog:

Smith asked: “So who are the experts on terrorism? Answer, there are no experts, just people who know a little about a lot of small conflicts.”11 This insight is significant, for it implies that so-called experts on terrorism have little to offer relative to conflicts they are unfamiliar with.12 As will be shown, [Rohan Gunaratna’s] Conflict and Terrorism is a good example of Smith’s thesis: forall its pretense about being an up-to-date manual on the violence in South Thailand, the book was produced by authors who seemingly know little about Thailand, but who are equipped with the language of terrorism studies.

BP: I agree with part of this point on some of the authors seemingly knowing little about Thailand although I am not so dismissive of the terrorism experts as there is plenty of theory on conflict/insurgencies/terrorism/counter-insurgency. Probably the best material would come from something written by a terrorism expert and a Thai expert so you can get the best of both worlds.

btw, the image comparisons between the arrested people in Tak Bai , October 2006; Black May, May 1992; and 1973 and 1976 is interesting. They are located in Appendix C.

The Nation:

Deputy secretary-general of the Democrat Party Theptai Senpong yesterday lashed out at Samak for not making a public statement denouncing Thaksin's allegations about the judiciary. He said Thaksin's comments tainted the monarchy and Samak's silence cast doubt on his loyalty to the crown.

BP: I assume the disloyal comments are because HM the King's April 2006 speech to judges. Isn't that a bit of a stretch, even for the Democrats?

Pol. Gen. (retired) Kowit, the new Interior Minister is quoted in Matichon in giving the following comment in regards to the annual reshuffle of personnel of the Interior Ministry:

"The reshuffle/change of positions of governors is like the Miss Thailand beauty competition. There are those who are beautiful and not beautiful. I am an impartial judge. Therefore, I will choose those governors who are smart, have knowledge, and are capable to serve their country".

BP: So will there be a walk on the catwalk for the governors?

The Post:

PUBLISHING / Post Publishing Plc, the publisher of the Bangkok Post and Post Today daily newspapers, posted a second-quarter net profit of 4.58 million baht, down from 8.73 million last year.
-
Rare BAT-3K loss

AUTO PARTS / Thai Storage Battery Plc (BAT-3K), the country's biggest maker of automobile batteries, reported its first quarterly loss in more than a decade.

The Samut Prakan-based company had a net loss of 220 million baht in the period, compared with a net profit of 78 million in the same period a year earlier. It was the company's first quarterly loss since the fourth quarter of 1997.

Others are doing better:

Centel profit up

HOTELS / Central Plaza Hotel reported second-quarter profits of 30 million baht, up 58% from the year before, lifting first half profits to 301 million baht, up 33% year-on-year.
-
Small ThaiBev gain

BEVERAGES / Thai Beverage Plc, Thailand's largest brewer and distiller, said second-quarter profit climbed marginally after it raised prices to cope with higher taxes and costs.

Net income rose to 2.39 billion baht from 2.38 billion a year earlier, the company said in a filing to the Singapore Exchange, where it is listed, Revenue rose 5% to 24.3 billion baht.

ThaiBev has raised prices and tried to diversify revenue by introducing light beer with lower alcohol content, and energy drinks.

Sales of beer fell 12.3% to 9.4 billion baht from a year earlier, as demand dropped, the maker of the market-leading Chang beer said. Sales of spirits and whiskey rose 13.5% to 14.3 billion baht after it increased prices to cover taxes.
-
G Steel profit soars

INDUSTRY / The hot-rolled coil producer G Steel Plc reported a 313% year-on-year gain in net profit for the first half of 2008 to 5.4 billion baht from 1.3 billion baht, thanks to the rapid rise in steel prices since early this year.

Second-quarter net profit was up 127% to 518 million baht, while sales rose 113% from 4.7 billion baht last year, mainly on higher volume. Global steel price gains helped lift the company's average selling prices by 46% from the same period last year.

Sometimes I find an journal article, book, video, news article, blog post etc which is not directly topical, but is still interesting, amusing etc. For example, this quote from former Interior Minister Sanan Kachornprasart dismissing Thakin’s chances with his new party, Thai Rak Thai in 1998 from Asiaweek:

Thaksin is not like Viagra. He has been in a number of parties and is nothing new.

BP: Argh, the perils of prediction. The article is interesting on the political situation of Thailand in 1998.

Or this:

"The contented Siamese, traditionally uninterested in politics and with an ingrained talent for obedience, have never shown the slightest desire for democracy - a phenomenon disconcerting to well-intentioned Western visitors. If they are now to enjoy the benefits of democracy, it is clear that these will have to be imposed from above."

The Economist, September 3, 1935.

(Source: Quigley, Kevin F. F. 1995 . “Towards consolidating democracy : The role of civil society organizations in Thailand.” Ph. D. dissertation, Georgetown University)

If you look at the post of my Economist quote, a commentator assumed that I was referring/making an analogy with some current event. So hence I have created a category “Reference of the Day”. This is just an explanatory post. I will try to keep it related to Thailand or on insurgency/terrorism.

Bangkok Post:

Wichit Chuenban, a legal adviser for Mr Thaksin, said he suspected certain members of the Council for National Security (CNS), which was made up of key leaders of the coup that toppled Mr Thaksin, had vested interests in the decision of the Assets Scrutiny Committee's decision to seize 76 billion baht in assets from Mr Thaksin.

He said the ASC's decision to seize the assets could have been ''prescribed'' by the CNS, noting that the ASC's regulations states that anyone who gives tips about ill-gotten assets will receive a reward worth 25% of the seized assets.

BP: 19 billion would make the coup worth staging, wouldn't it? Surely, they wouldn't take the money? I am sure if they tried the PPP government could get the legislature to pass a law prohibiting the payment.

UPDATE: Kaeswan of the ASC confirms in Thai Rath that there is a rewards system in place, but says it doesn't apply in these circumstances and only applies to outsiders and in the circumstances in which there is no prior investigation.

BP: Actually, he denies that the ASC will receive the benefits, but the prior investigation restriction might create a problem for anyone to claim the money. Given though 19 billion baht is at stake some people might try.

I recently linked to guest post at New Mandala by photographer Nick Nostitz who in conclusion wrote:

Obviously in the aftermath both sides politicised this event tremendously. The very one-sided and partial reporting in the Thai medias stems most definitely from the fact that at the time every Thai news outlet still had military officers as censors in their offices. International media was mostly not present, the few who were there were on the ground only very briefly.

I commented, somewhat flippantly:

So when will the Bangkok Post and The Nation 'fess up that it was the military's censors who were controlling coverage? Ok, for The Nation, the military probably didn't need to send censors as they would follow the elite line without prompting.

BP: Someone who works for the Bangkok Post (their e-mail address confirms who they are and who they work there) has checked with editorial staff and e-mailed to advise that there were no soldiers in the newsroom. There are a number of reports of soldiers being in Thai TV stations in the period after the coup - see here and here - but it would be fair to say that it wouldn't make sense to place soldiers in English language newspapers given they are not read by the masses. Has anyone seen any reports on how long these miltiary staff where in newsrooms and which newsrooms?

Not content with only investigating the Udon incident the NCCC are going after NBT as the Bangkok Post reports:

The National Counter Corruption Commission (NCCC) has established a sub-committee to look into allegations that the Public Relations Department (PRD) turned a blind eye to defamation in the Khwam Jing Wan Nee (Truth of Today) programme on the NBT channel. The programme has been accused of defamation by not allowing third parties the opportunity to counter allegations against them, which was against journalist's ethics and violated human rights.

PRD director-general Pachoen Khampo and Suriyong Hunthasan, the acting director of NBT, are also subject to the probe.

Two guests _ Jatuporn Prompan, the deputy spokesman for the People Power party, and Nattawut Saikua, the deputy government spokesman _ were regularly on the show and discussed political issues with the host, former Thai Rak Thai executive Veera Musikapong.

NBT is seen as a government tool to counter the satellite-based ASTV which broadcasts the People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD) rallies, which attack the government daily.

BP: Journalist ethics? Surely, they are kidding? Is it really standard practice in Thailand to provide an opportunity for a response to a single program/column? Yoon has programs on MCOT, do Yoon critics get their own show in response? Are government critics banned from NBT? I have seen Abhisit and other Democrats being interviewed. The host of a different show, the 8:30pm current affairs show, has previously invited PAD people in the past, but they refused to appear. Is the PRD not responsible for all media outlets in Thailand? So why no investigation of ASTV, do they allow their critics to counter allegations? Finally, what on earth are the NCCC doing investigatign this? Is this corruption?

btw, how is defamation and "fairness doctrine" related? Can one now defame ones critics and get away with it by allowing them to respond?

btw, the Truth of Today is a truly pathetic show. I can't stand either of the three guys presenting and maybe they have improved since the first show, but the first show it was so mind numbingly boring that I don't want to subject myself to it again.