UPDATE: See below

There are apparently 100,000 stranded tourists in Thailand. U-tapao seems to be the airport of choice now, but it is not a proper full-size airport as the NZ Herald reports:

Frustrated tourists meanwhile struggled to escape Thailand through a Vietnam War-era naval base, U-tapao, as airport authorities announced Suvarnabhumi would remain closed for at least another day.

Thai Airways has begun to arrange flights there, and some airlines have sent planes to pick up their passengers there.

But the tiny airport has been overwhelmed by the influx.

U-tapao airport's carpark has room for just 100 vehicles and its terminal can take only 400 people at once.

Others have taken buses kilometres to airports on the southern island of Phuket or the northern city of Chiang Mai or overland all the way to neighbouring Cambodia and Malaysia.

BP: A complete logistical nightmare.

Newley has filed an article for AFP on the situation at U-tapao: 

Built in the 1960s by the US air force and equipped with just one X-ray scanner for bags, the airbase can only handle around 40 flights a day, compared to the 700-flight capacity of Bangkok's gleaming Suvarnabhumi international airport.

But thanks to the demonstrations, it's all that Thailand has to offer.

"I think it's stupid," said Danny Mosaffi, 57, from New York City. "They have killed tourism in this country, the authorities should go do something. Nobody is going to come here."

Thai authorities say around 30,000 travellers a day -- both Thai and foreign -- have had flights cancelled since the occupation of Suvarnabhumi on Tuesday in what the protesters are calling their "final battle" against the government.

Some travel agents bussed passengers down to U-Tapao, which is near the tourist resort of Pattaya, but with information proving difficult to come by in Bangkok, others came on their own more in hope than expectation.

Huge traffic jams built up outside the sprawling compound. Thai soldiers with M16 rifles guarded the entrance to the airport to prevent anti-government protesters from gaining access, as travellers lugged their bags under the sun.

Once inside the terminal, it was standing room only [BP: see some photos here]. Travelers were unsure where they should check in. Long queues wound around the lone luggage scanner, where soldiers tried to hold back the surging crowd.

"It's complete chaos and pandemonium," said Bonnie Chan, 29, from San Diego, California.

"We've been given incorrect information from the airlines. The US embassy says they can't help us. We're high and dry. The airlines keep giving us the run-around."

With no departures board available, airline employees held up signs that said "Final boarding call, Moscow," while other staff stood inside the security area and pressed signs against a glass window calling for passengers to board a flight to Hong Kong.

At one point, a group of unruly passengers pushed their way through a door to the security screening area after an airport employee announced the final boarding call for a flight to Taipei.

One woman, caught in the surge, began to scream, and the soldiers forced the doors shut.

BP: You also have the situation of Thais stranded abroad. I know of someone now stuck somewhere just waiting for the airport to re-open although I know of another who arrived back in Thailand from an overseas from U-tapao - their description was of complete and utter chaos.

h/t to Newley, of course.

The Australian:

If you travel beyond the trendy enclaves of inner Bangkok, you'll find many Thais are embarrassed and angry about what the People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD) is doing to the country - hijacking airports and now threatening to do the same with sea ports if Prime Minister Somchai Wongsawat doesn't resign.

There is so much anger that it feels like the country is about to erupt. It will take a miracle for there not to be widespread bloodshed in Bangkok this week.

Until now, pro-government supporters have been lobbing a few grenades, but there are rumours that they are arming themselves with more strategic weapons for an assault on Suvarnabhumi airport.

"We want to free the airport," one pro-government supporter told The Australian.

And they don't believe the police or army will stop them.

The situation has deteriorated so much that some commentators are now talking about civil war, as they believe the situation is beyond peaceful resolution.

BP: I don't believe the civil war talk. Anyway, there are other parts of the article which are interesting...

UPDATE: See below

KD in a comment in this post:

It is wrong to say PAD is 'using' women as human shields. The women who are present there have made a rational decision and exercised their choice to be there after thinking through the consequences - atleast I hope so.

BUT the children??? Why on earth are they there? How can parents put the security of children at risk? What kind of parents are they? What kind of leaders? And what kind of 'democracy movement' is this - that uses children as human shields.

BP: The thing is that PAD openly state they use human shields. Reuters:

"We will not leave. We will use human shields against the police if they try to disperse us," PAD leader Suriyasai Katasila said.

I have previously blogged on the PAD using women as human shields - see the Post article where the PAD openly admit to it:

The dozens of women _ young, middle-aged and old _ who serve as human shields protecting the nine key leaders of the People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD) show no fear in carrying out their risky mission. One of the PAD's female guards, Tong, 34, who runs her own business, said she was not afraid of confronting anti-riot police, as she believed the officers would not dare to attack women.

...

She said she never gave a thought to the danger when she volunteered to be a human shield for the PAD leaders, who she said deserved protection.

''[The PAD leaders] expose facts about the wrongs carried out by corrupt politicians,'' she said.

Rak, 26, a bachelor's degree holder, said she volunteered as a guard for the PAD as many of the demonstrators were elderly or middle-aged people.

She has learned how to protect herself and others if anti-riot police moved to disperse the protest by using tear gas or pepper spray.

''I honestly believe that the police will not act violently against women,'' Rak said.

Maew, 21, a native of Trat, said she accompanied her father, who wanted to join the PAD.

She decided to be a PAD guard to protect her father and other demonstrators. She said she feared nothing.

Human shields are the PAD's main strategy for dealing with police. Those who serve as human shields are mostly women who volunteer for the front-line positions to protect their leaders. Each human shield comprises 300 to 400 women.

Those serving as human shields said they would firmly join hands to form a chain if police attempted to break up the protest.

BP: There is no doubt they are human shields. 

On children, we have this:

Protesters in Thailand are luring children into their airport rally by paying mums and dads to give up their kids, according to an Australian trapped in the country.

Thousands of supporters of the People's Alliance for Democracy have blocked Thailand's two main airports, preventing up to 10,000 tourists from leaving and sending businesses that operate within the terminals broke.

Inga Vennell, who was due to leave the country on Wednesday after a backpacking trip, told ninemsn shopkeepers, out-of-pocket tourists and children were being paid to join the rally.

"People who work at clothing stores, cafes and bars — and who don’t have any affiliation with the protesters — are getting paid about 100 Baht ($AU4.30) to go in there.

"We're not sure who is paying them but they're saying its great; there's so much food and water.

"The protesters have made walls of barricades that are made with boxes of water wrapped in barbed wire."

Families who joined the "peaceful" demonstration with babies or children were getting paid more, Ms Vennell said.

"Many families are pushing their children to enter into the situation to provide more money for their families," she said.

The idea is that the military or police won't use as much force because children were still there, she said.

Ms Vennell said the more violent protesters — the "rebels" — were taking stimulants and pills to keep themselves awake, which was making them more agitated and angry.

"They've tied together airport trolleys and wrapped barbed wire around them — that's what the police are having trouble getting through," she said.

BP: The rates sound a little low, is that just the extra? I have heard from different journalists that who have asked when at the rallies and the PAD guard are said to be paid  - here is one news report. Figures range from anywhere between 500 to 2,000 baht a day depending on the seniority level. The only way I could see the 100 baht as being true is if is extra for whoever is bringing the children along. I should note that  there are a large number of children at the rallies. What responsible parent would bring their children to a rally knowing there is a possibility of violence? Money is certainly one reason.

UPDATE: As with others I am slightly sceptical of her account and how she would know, but the PAD does advocate the use of human shields and money is a common way to entice people along. I have not seen a single piece of criticism of this practice of bringing children along to where violence is possible.

Also, you even have UNICEF's statement the other day on concern for the safety of children (to the person who sent message thinking I made up the statement, here is a news article with most of the statement and I can't help it if UNICEF update their website - two different people also have forwarded me the press release).

IHT:

Protesters saw her attendance as a "green light" for their activities, said Thitinan Pongsudhirak, director of the Institute of Security and International Studies.

The conflict, Thitinan says, is rooted in a struggle for influence in the king's waning years.

"It takes place in the twilight of the king's reign," Thitinan said. "This is what this is all about. Who gets to rule Thailand?"

BP: So it is not just about Thaksin? Well, of course, not, Thaksin is the symbol, but it is much greater than Thaksin.

DPA:

There are fears that the DAAD, which has been law-abiding thus far, will turn to violence in the coming days to rein in the PAD.

'Thailand is tipping out of control,' warned Thitinan Pongsudhirak, a political scientist at Bangkok's prestigious Chulalongkorn University. 'The DAAD could go on it's own rampage, and then who will stop them? Only Thaksin.

...

The PAD's main goal has been to keep Thaksin from returning to power but some fear the movement is actually paving the way for his comeback, by creating political chaos and devastating the economy.

'The PAD, ironically, is playing into Thaksin's hands,' Thitinan said.

BP: UDD/DAAD have promised no violence tonight. They will likely continue their protests, but have so far mostly limited themselves to stadiums - this seems to be their new strategy.

AFP:

“I think things are heading for much worse before the dust settles,” analyst Thitinan Pongsudhirak said.

In the yellow corner is the People’s Alliance for Democracy (PAD), a coalition of royalists, businessmen and middle-class Thais centred on Bangkok who want to topple the elected government, saying it is a corrupt proxy for Thaksin.

Their distinctive yellow T-shirts and headbands are meant to symbolize loyalty to the revered king, and the group says it is trying to protect the monarchy — but analysts say they are more worried about their own interests.

Raised in the northern city of Chiang Mai, Thaksin angered “conservative, establishment” forces with drives to bring greater economic benefits to his native region during his 2001-2006 spell in power, Thitinan said.

The PAD led protests resulted in the coup two years ago, but Thaksin’s allies were voted back in in the first post-putsch elections last December.

Conservatives in Bangkok “called the shots for decades,” Thitinan said.

“They are unwilling to change with the times ... This is why they got rid of Thaksin but they can’t quite hold back the forces that were unleashed by Thaksin,” he said.

“But Thaksin was also corrupt and abusive of power,” Thitinan said.

BP: It is not about Thaksin or his so-called wanting to overthrow the monarchy. It is about the old elite/families who own the companies/old concessions in Thailand and them not wanting to lose their control. Thaksin overreached at times so the elite response was the PAD and the coup.

David Fulbrook, of the new Thai Politico blog, blogs:

Can the police seize control of Bangkok's international airport in the face of up to 4,000 PAD members including a hardcore of armed militants?

The failure of police and troops to storm the airport on Thursday handed the advantage to PAD. 

As each day passes, PAD's position grows stronger, turning the world's third largest terminal into a citadel.

Behind PAD's flag-waving grannies is a well-organized movement. Seizures of provincial airports early this year suggests PAD has been plotting to take Bangkok's international airport, as well as its domestic airport, for months. 

PAD, particularly its militant wing, is probably well prepared for police batons and tear gas.

Matters have been made worse by the failure of the police to cordon off the airport until 29 November when they lost a confrontation with PAD members. 

Clubs, batons and pistols have often been seen in the hands of PAD. There could be more than that in their armouries at the airports.

BP: Have a read and the site is worth checking out. The complexity of taking back the airport cannot be underestimated. PAD have shown they are willing to use violence and with them using women and children as human shields, the storming of the airport will result in a large loss of life, hence this is something that the government has to factor into its decision.

The Bangkok Post:

A caretaker government should be established to break the political deadlock, says Democrat MP Trairong Suwannakhiri.

This could be brought about by collaboration between the coalition parties and the opposition to amend the constitution, he suggested.

But both sides need to amend Article 171 of the 2007 charter to allow a non-MP to become caretaker prime minister.

The caretaker government could have a limited tenure of one year, with its key mission being to focus on the amendment of the army-backed charter, Mr Trairong said.

The approach could be the most suitable answer to the standoff between the People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD) and the government.

The PAD is calling for the resignation of Prime Minister Somchai Wongsawat over allegations he abused his power in handling issues associated with convicted former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra.

The idea of a caretaker government could become more plausible after Tuesday, when the Constitution Court rules on the dissolution of the ruling People Power party and its coalition partners, the Chart Thai and Matchimathipataya parties, Mr Trairong said. He said it would also help avert a coup.

According to him, each side needs to step back to avert violence. Both sides should forgo their pride and collaborate on a new government with a non-partisan person taking the job of prime minister, he said.

BP: It is going to take one year to amend the Constitution? Will we have a referendum? Who will decide on whiich sections to amend? Are the Democrats going to follow the New Politics agenda of a partly/mostly appointed lower house as given some limited support from some Democrats or will they take the Abhisit "we need a fully elected Senate" as advocated last year? Some form of caretaker government is likely. I wonder how satisifed PAD will be though.

New Straits Times:

This time it would be trivial to say that democracy is the issue. It's whether or not those others, "unworthy to bear the dust under his shoes", as the royal inflection goes, can finally be worn out. Just wait -- the king will wave his magic wand and the crisis will be over. The army -- or some other appropriate delegate -- will take power, and the country will find the patience to wear out the endurance of an expiring Thaksin, who in exile loses wealth and legitimacy by the day. Mai pen rai, things will quiet down and everyone will be wondering what all the fuss was about. It will end not with bang but a whimper. 

BP: An interesting op-ed....More news on TV with the Metropolitan Commissioner stating that the police have been in contact with Chamlong. He expects they will talk today so the police will delay issuing the second announcement (this is the one where they make it a criminal to enter or exit the prescribed areas of the two airports). He expects there will be "good news" so this suggests no forceful dispersal of protesters. I wonder how united the PAD leadership are as Chamlong seems interested in talking but the same can't be said for Sondhi L.

I think I initially underestimated how difficult it will be to disperse the protesters. Waco took 51 days. There are a large number of children with PAD also using children and women as human shields approach. The stand-off continues.

h/t to a reader

The Nation:

The PAD may also try to seize seaports on the Eastern Seaboard if the takeover of the airports fails to force the premier out of office, Suthi Atchasai, a PAD leader from the East, told protesters at Suvarnabhumi yesterday.

BP: Is there anything they won't do?

The Telegraph now lists Thailand as one of the most 20 dangerous places in the world.

BP: I have seen this on Channel 3 and they put Thailand in 7th position, but the actual article doesn't state the list is from most dangerous (at the top) to lest dangerous (at the bottom). If it is then Thailand is now considered (well at least by the writer) more dangerous than Pakistan, India, Haiti, Colombia, Nigeria etc. Given the pictures recently shown all over the world and the seizue of the airport (ie where the vast majority of tourists enter Thailand), many just won't come to Thailand or back to Thailand for a long time.

I have a bleg for help, please post all relevant news articles (please post the link or at least ten consecutive words of text so I can find it in google) you can find whether in English or Thai. There are two main issues here and they primarily reside on what happens after the dissolution - still unsure whether the decision will be handed down on December 2, it might be the next day or the following week.

First, I am particularly interested in the total number of PPP, Chat Thai, and Matichima executives which will be affected by the decision. I am also interested to find the name of well-known/senior PPP executives who are MPs but not executives (I have heard Chalerm and Mingkwan mentioned). Second, I am trying to figure out what will happen to the government after this. Is it an interim PPP administration? PPP MPs who are not executives (assuming the executives are all stripped of their political rights) have 60 days to move to a new party, but what is this based on? Is this a maximum time period or a compulsory wait? (which provision of which Act). There is a lack of information on what might happen next week. 

Some articles I have found in Thai, from Matichon (Veera speaking about the dissolution), Matichon (on preparations to move to Puea Thai),  I'll add more as I can find them.

Another one.

The Nation:

4 in serious condition, 3 more explosions heard at ASTV station and Don Mueang Airport

A grenade was launched into the Government House compound minutes late Saturday night, injuring 50 people.

The explosion occurred at 11:50 pm Saturday when the protesters were preparing to rest and leaders of the People's Alliance for the Democracy were about to stop the activities on the stage.

The bomb fell on the roof of a tent on the left side of the stage and fell onto the ground and exploded.

Kittichai Saisa-ard, chief of PAD guards, said 47 protesters were sent to the Ramathibodi Hospital, and four of them were severely injured. He said two other protesters were sent to Phra Mongkut Hospital and another to Vajira Hospital.

The bomb, believed by the PAD to be an M79 grenade, exploded just 200 metres away from the PAD's main stage inside the Government House. It was fired outside the rally ground from a similar direction of the recent attack at the site.

Suriyasai Katasila said guards saw a flash from the direction of the Benjamabophit Hospital so it was believed the grenade was launched from the direction.

BP: A bomb was thrown also at Chat Thai HQ. Like with the Bangkok bombings, will we ever find the culprits of these criminal acts?

The color that Thais have associated with the monarchy, yellow, but it is now the color associated with the PAD. A number of people have commented to me that there has been a noticeable drop in the number of people (principally office workers) who wear yellow.

From the Criminal Code (my own translation):

Section 135/1 A person commits an act which is a criminal offence [if they commit one] of the following:

(1) [The person] commits an act of violence, or commits any act which causes harm to [a person's] life, or serious harm to [a person's] body, or the liberty of any person,

(2) [The person] commits an act causing serious damage to a public transportation system, a telecommunications system, or to any infrastructure which has a public benefit, [or]

(3) [The person] commits an act causing damage to the property of any state, or of any person, or to the environment which has caused or is likely to cause significant economic damage.

If such acts are committed with the intention to threaten, or to compel the Thai Government, a foreign government, or an international organisation to do or abstain from doing any act which will cause serious damage or to cause disorder by creating widespread fear among the public [then] that person has committed a terrorist act.

[That person] shall be punished by death, life imprisonment or a term of imprisonment between three years to twenty years, and a fine between 60,000 Baht to 1,000,000 Baht.

Any act of demonstrating, rallying, protesting, opposing or [being part of a] movement to demand the state to assist or to obtain justice, which is an exercise of [a person's] liberty as prescribed in the Constitution, is not a terrorist act

BP: Only peaceful protests are protected by the Constitution.  The seizing of Suvarnbumi is a terrorist act, either (1), (2), or (3).

The Nation:

A bomb exploded inside Thailand's Government House compound at 11.50pm on Saturday, wounding more than 20 of anti-government protesters.

People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD) reported about 20 people injured, of which three are in serious condition.

The bomb, reportedly M79 type, exploded just 200 metres away from the PAD's main stage inside the Government House.

The injured people are sent to Vajira and Ramathibodi hospitals.

There were another explosion at ASTV station on Phra Arthit Road at  00.15 on Sunday morning, just around 25 minutes away from the attack at Government House.

Two bombs are reportedly exploded at the ASTV office. Witnesses also heard the gunfire lasting about 10 minutes. No injury was reported.

BP: Continuation of disorder throughout the city. There is no semblance of law and order anymore.

Asian Human Rights Commission:

The takeover of the main international airport in Bangkok by protestors going under the banner of the People's Alliance for Democracy is a watershed moment for democracy and the rule of law in Thailand. It follows some months of increasingly aggressive strategies to get the current government to resign and to block it from making amendments to the 2008 Constitution, which was prepared under the watch of the 2006 military coup leaders and their supporters and pushed through via a deeply flawed referendum. 

Alliance members have since August gone from merely occupying spaces like roads and parks to occupying public buildings, in particular, the Government House. Organised armed "guards" have defended their positions both from opponents and from state security personnel. They have also illegally obtained and openly carried an array of manufactured and homemade weapons, including guns from caches that had reportedly been kept in the government premises. They have illegally detained other citizens. They have vandalised, destroyed and stolen public and private property. In the last day or two it has been reported that in addition to occupying the Suvarnabumi airport they have seized busses, and have refused to allow police into the airport to investigate explosions there during the night. They are now reportedly preparing for the latest phase in the "final battle", which is supposedly being instigated under codenames like Hiroshima and Nagasaki, the cities on which the United States military dropped nuclear bombs at the close of World War Two. 

The alliance has exhibited a number of features that from past lessons of Thailand and other countries around the world pose grave dangers to the future of the country's imperilled democracy. Of these, the following can be said. 

1. They spring from a far-right ideology that has for decades driven successive military-bureaucratic administrations in Thailand, which dramatic changes to political and social life of the last two decades have increasingly threatened. 

2. Their coordinated attacks and actions on the pretext of self-defence and national interest are designed to cause a widespread feeling of insecurity and uncertainty and allow reactionary elite forces to push Thailand back to a 1980s model of "half-sail" semi-elected government. 

3. The alliance leaders have occupied the public space and forced people throughout Thailand to either take sides for or against them, or to opt out completely, thus alienating millions of people and denying them the opportunity to have a say on the key political and social questions of their time.

Some commentators and opponents of the alliance have described its agenda as fascist. This is not an exaggeration. Experience shows that the types of systemic changes and regimes that follow such movements, although they may not describe themselves as fascist, have fascist qualities. Indeed, successive dictatorships in Thailand's modern history appreciated, expressed and used many fascist symbols and policies, and the residue of these can be found in the language and behaviour of the alliance leaders today. 

If these events are allowed to continue, and it is self-evident that they are being allowed, they will effectively undo everything that was done to build a culture of democratic rights and participation in public life in Thailand during the 1990s. The damage that they are now in a position to effect will surpass anything of that caused by the ousted government of Thaksin Shinawatra, and could even provoke a greater disaster than the 2006 coup and scrapping of the 1997 Constitution. Whatever institutional and legal gains were made in the last decade or two will be undone. 

Already, the criminal justice system of Thailand has been reduced to an utter joke, its agencies and personnel either unable or unwilling to intervene effectively to protect public property and people's lives, or even prosecute wrongdoers. That the security forces can carry out coups on the whimsy of generals and engage in battles over trifles with those of neighbouring countries but not responsibly protect the Government House or international airport is sheer farce. That government agencies have been forced to negotiate and cut their losses rather than insist that the law be enforced is dangerous folly. And that the senior judiciary, which through a succession of highly politicised judgments has played a major part in contributing to the current mess has nothing useful to contribute when lives are at stake and the country is in greatest need of intelligent guidance is altogether shameful. 

Peaceful protest is not only a part of democratic process; it is integral to it. But the rallies and blockades in Bangkok of recent days, weeks and months have not been peaceful. Nor can they properly be called protests at all, as they are not merely demonstrations of a wish, but acts aimed at achieving goals at all costs. And the costs to Thailand have already been very high. They will get higher, and be felt in terms of the lives and liberties of all people in the country if they are not brought to an end. All people in Thailand have a right to oppose this ultra-conservative project for state dominance at their expense. 

BP: Can't see anything I disagree with.

Reuters:

The assault by the People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD) was swift and savage, a head-on charge by a convoy of vehicles speeding down the wrong side of an expressway into scores of unarmed police.

As the terrified officers fled, some of them jumping through the open door of accelerating police vans, wild-eyed young men burst from the PAD vehicles, attacking with sling shots, fireworks, iron bars and wooden stakes.

The onslaught lasted no more than 15 seconds but left the five-lane highway, the main access route to Bangkok's besieged Suvarnabhumi airport, littered with broken glass and discarded police helmets and truncheons.

The police, who have orders not to retaliate against a movement backed by Bangkok's establishment grandees, had virtually no warning.

'The yellow people are coming,' one officer shouted, turning to run as the PAD vanguard, a large sound-truck blaring out anti-government vitriol, careered round the bend of the expressway exit.

BP: This is insane. 

Posts will be infrequent. I will try for a news update every 60-90 minutes. Any analysis will be very brief (depends on what else I am doing - I have to catch up with a lot of things).

22:30pm Will go back to individual posts now

Ed Cropley of Reuters has an article which contradicts the earlier AP report I linked to on the police blocking off all road:

Police armed with automatic rifles blocked one road to the $4 billion complex, one of the world's largest airports, but were totally absent from other routes, including the main five-lane expressway leading directly to the blockaded terminal.

AFP:

PAD start attacking the police. Riot police fled a checkpoint near Bangkok's international airport Saturday after coming under attack by several hundred anti-government protesters who have been occupying the main terminal.

About 150 police at the checkpoint jumped into their vehicles and sped off when they saw a convoy of protesters — many armed with metal rods and some carrying guns — speeding toward them. Video footage of the attack appeared to show a protester firing a handgun toward a police van filled with officers. It was not immediately clear if there were any injuries.

The attack effectively broke a massive police cordon that officials had formed earlier in the day around the protesters occupying Thailand's main airport, raising fears of an imminent confrontation in a standoff that has disrupted the country's economy and the travel industry worldwide.

About 2,000 police were deployed around Suvarnabhumi international airport, where protesters calling themselves the People's Alliance for Democracy have camped out since late Tuesday, forcing the halt of all flights.

The checkpoint was about a mile (2 kilometers) from the airport.

About 400 protesters in a long convoy sped toward the police, hitting their vehicles and smashing windshields as they drove off and throwing what appeared to be firecrackers at the police.

After the police fled, the protesters picked up some of the riot shields they left behind and occupied the checkpoint, where police had been stopping vehicles headed into the airport to search for weapons.

BP: And this meant to be a peaceful protest? It is an armed gang? If the PAD won't negotiate, shouldn't the police be responding? There is some PAD supporter on ThaiPBS talking about how they are a peace movement and want peace.

Ed again in Reuters:

"If they come, we'll not open the door. If they shoot us, we'll shoot them back. We'll die if that makes the country better," PAD leader Sondhi Limthongul told supporters, the most explicit admission yet by the movement that they are armed. 

BP: PAD are peaceful?

20:00pm I say likely over 500,000, the Deputy PM thinks 1 million as the Post reports:

He said the initial forecast estimated 13.5 million tourists would travel to Thailand in 2009, but the figure would definitely drop significantly due to the current political uncertainty.

As a result, about one million people working in hotels, restaurants and other tourism-related businesses could be laid off next year, the deputy premier predicted.

BP: It is impossible to predict exactly how many and how long tourists will stay away. But a 500,000-1,000,000 figure based on current predictions - which are based on what happened to tourist numbers after the violence in May 1992 and the tsunami - seems the likely range to me.

19:30pm Matichon now reports, quoting a PAD spokesman, that Chamlong has cancelled the visit to Kowit's House.

BP: If PAD refuse to negotiate then they have to accept the consequences. They can't hold the country to ransom.

19:00pm Here is the full EU statement (this is via e-mail - thanks to the reader who passed it on):

Declaration of the European Union

on the situation in Thailand

(Bangkok, 29 November 2008)

The European Union Ambassadors in Bangkok reiterate their serious concerns about the siege of the Bangkok airports, resulting in the disruption of international air traffic and already over 100 000 passengers being stranded. 

 

While respecting the right of protesting and without interfering in any way with the internal political debate in Thailand, the EU considers that these actions are totally inappropriate. They are seriously damaging the international image of Thailand. 

We urge the protesters to evacuate the airports peacefully without delay in order to avoid a major consular crisis and its economic consequences for Thailand.

We call all parties in Thailand to takes steps to resolve the crisis and restore public order, respecting the rule of law and country’s democratic institutions. 

BP: Reading up on how things and discussions with some people who are much wiser than myself, the economic impact if this continues will cause a recession next year. The loss to people's livelihoods and number of jobs is likely over 500,000 and this directly as a result of the airport siege - this is based on how many people are employed in the tourism industry and associated sectors including flow-on effects. The economic impact of a recession would easily push 500,000 people into poverty - this is a very rough figure, but you can see figures for what happened in the economic crisis in 1998 and the increase in poverty. There will have to be a government bail-out of the tourism industry and other companies as it is -would their insurance cover it?

The current situation is untenable.  I think that the offer of Somchai resigning is something that should be on the table during negotiations. The PAD though must stop all protests regardless of who is the new PM and all the PAD leaders agree to submit themselves to the criminal justice system (an amnesty for them all would have to include everyone in the Thaksin government as well and I don't agree with that - if the PAD leaders want to go and live in exile let them). Anyone assaulting anyone (regardless of which side) should be prosecuted? The only way to do this is to set up an independent committee.

The PAD can't just expect to get everything for nothing. Honestly, this is something that must go to HM the King (the PAD leaders promised the last time that all they wanted was for Samak gone as PM - it happened and they continued). Unless there is a guarantee of no more PAD protests and that the authorities will enforce the law for anyone who tries to seize government buildings in the future, I see little hope other than deep economic recession.

On constitutional and political reform, this is best left to parliament and then a referendum. All these academics drafted the previous versions and no one was happy. The government will need to seek advice, but it can be settled in a referendum. We were told by the military government that just vote for the 2007 referendum and then we amend it later. Yet, even simply setting up a committee to discuss the reforms for amendment is somehow not allowed. If there is a need to choose between elected or unelected thugs, I will choose the elected ones anyday. 

18:30pm Matichon reports that Chamlong and 500 PAD supporters have gone to visit Interior Minister Kowit

BP: An official PAD representative? Chamlong has always been more willing to talk.

18:00pm The most concerning thing about the whole PAD saga is just how uninformative elements of the Thai media are in reporting on what is going on. Compare that with the wires, here is AP (I normally don't reprint in full, but will make an exception this time):

Police built a massive cordon around anti-government protesters occupying Thailand's main airport Saturday, raising fears of an imminent confrontation in a standoff that has disrupted the country's economy and the travel industry worldwide.

About 2,000 policemen were deployed around Suvarnabhumi international airport, where protesters calling themselves the People's Alliance for Democracy have camped out since late Tuesday, forcing the halt of all flights.

The protesters also have occupied Bangkok's domestic airport and the prime minister's office compound, virtually paralyzing the government in their campaign to force its resignation.

The confrontation, severing the capital from civilian air traffic, has taken a heavy toll on Thailand's economy and reputation. According to Thai media reports some 100,000 tourists are stranded, and schedules of airlines around the world have been disrupted.

So far security forces have only issued a warning to the protesters to leave and refrained from using force. The protesters say they will not leave until the government of Prime Minister Somchai Wongsawat resigns.

But it appears the government's patience is wearing thin.

"The police will issue another warning to protesters to leave the two airports. The language in the warning will be stronger than the first one," said a police spokesman, Maj. Gen. Amnuay Nimmano.

He said if the protesters do not leave, a deadline will be issued "in the third warning — the last one before we take action."

The 2,000 policeman at Suvarnabhumi were deployed at all exit and entry points around the airport, said police Maj. Gen. Rachandra Ruenkamon, the deputy chief of operations in the area.

One checkpoint on the main highway leading to the airport on Bangkok's outskirts was manned by about 400 policemen accompanied by about 20 navy sailors armed with M-16 rifles.

The roadblocks were meant to prevent more protesters from joining thousands of others inside the terminal building.

About 50 soldiers guarded the maintenance facility of the airport, a few kilometers (miles) away from the main complex.

Several airlines are flying rescue flights to the U-Tapao naval airport, 140 kilometers (90 miles) south of Bangkok, to evacuate stranded passengers. But the small airport is overwhelmed by the load, unable to process thousands of travelers quickly.

Among those stranded are about 3,000 Chinese tourists who will be flown out on special flights by four Chinese airlines beginning Saturday, China's Xinhua News Agency reported. It said the Hong Kong government has also arranged two Cathay Pacific flights to help stranded passengers.

Several groups around the world have canceled planned tours, and 88 aircraft, many of them belonging to foreign airlines, are parked at Suvarnabhumi unable to take off.

The Federation of Thai Industries estimates the cost of lost trade due to the airport shutdowns at $57 million to $85 million a day.

Thailand's central bank said the number of tourist arrivals is likely to fall by 40 percent next year if the airport shutdown drags on until the end of December. It said the tourism industry, a key component of the Thai economy, is expected to lose $4.28 billion, equal to 1.5 percent of the gross domestic product.

With international repercussions obvious, the European Union and the United States urged the protesters to end their siege.

The People's Alliance for Democracy accuses the government of being a puppet of former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, who was ousted by a 2006 military coup and fled overseas to escape corruption charges.

Prime Minister Somchai, who is Thaksin's brother-in-law, is now operating the government out of the northern city of Chiang Mai, blocked out of his office in Bangkok.

Tension rose further Saturday after a pro-government group expressed frustration at the continuing standoff and called for an indefinite sit-in starting Sunday in central Bangkok.

"We are calling for our supporters nationwide to come out (for the rally). They have been told to bring their clothes and food because we will be here long," said Viphutalaeng Pattanaphumethai, a leader of the group, which in the past has clashed with the alliance.

Its members wear red shirts to distinguish themselves from the alliance, whose supporters wear yellow.

At the Suvarnabhumi airport, Associated Press reporters saw one policeman being grabbed Saturday at a checkpoint by three protesters, forcibly put in a vehicle, and driven away toward areas controlled by the demonstrators. His whereabouts remained unclear.

BP: See how informative that was.

17:45pm AFP:

The European Union urged protesters Saturday to vacate Bangkok's airports, saying the rallies which have left more than 100,000 passengers stranded were "seriously damaging" Thailand's image.

A statement from the EU ambassadors in the Thai capital called on all parties to resolve the kingdom's political crisis peacefully and in line with democratic institutions but it focused on the acts of the demonstrators.

"While respecting the right of protesting and without interfering in any way with the internal political debate in Thailand, the EU considers that these actions are totally inappropriate," the statement said.

"They are seriously damaging the international image of Thailand."

The statement said more than 100,000 passengers had been left stranded by the anti-government protests.

The ambassadors "urge the protesters to evacuate the airports peacefully without delay in order to avoid a major consular crisis and its economic consequences for Thailand", the statement added.

A group called the People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD) launched a campaign in May to topple the democratically elected government, saying it was a puppet of ousted former premier Thaksin Shinawatra.

The PAD occupied the cabinet offices in Bangkok in August but took their protests to the world stage earlier this week by seizing Suvarnabhumi international airport and the smaller Mueang domestic hub.

Thai premier Somchai Wongsawat has declared a state of emergency at both airports and rejected calls from the army chief to hold snap elections. Police have yet to take any action to drive out the protesters.

"We call all parties in Thailand to take steps to resolve the crisis and restore public order, respecting the rule of law and country's democratic institutions," the EU statement said.

BP: It is in the Thai media too, Thai Rath has it here. Actually, they call on the protesters to leave. Anyone have the actual statement?

17:15pm Avudh in a blog post at The Nation (thanks to OP)

Since Sukhothai era, Thai citizens always have the right to air their grievances directly to the King.

The bond between the monarchy and the people is a unique feature of Thainess. Since the advent of democracy in 1927, royal advice has been sought and given to every government. The people can access to His Majesty to rectify their hardship and injustice.

It is presently evident that the Kingdom is being engulfed in unprecedented political turmoil which threatens to degenerate into a civil war.

The government and the People’s Alliance for Democracy have fiercely fought to destroy one another though both failed to achieve a decisive outcome. In their latest battle, the government is trying to regain control of two major airports at Don Mueang and Suvarnabhumi.

Even if authorities succeed to disperse the crowds with high casualties as an acceptable risk, property damage is expected to be high. Airport repairs might take months which would defeat the purpose of chasing out the crowds.

At this juncture when the government is seen as a lame duck, negotiations with the PAD might not progress at all.

It is futile for the rival camps to keep on fighting. Society is the true victim to their power struggle. Untold damage has already been inflicted and more destructions will be incurred if red-shirt and yellow-shirt crowds are to take to the streets and fight.

The rival crowds are equally well organised and the civil war, if erupted, might not end in a clear victory for either side. Then what? Are Thais willing to engage in a war of annihilation and allow their own race to perish?

The government and the PAD profess to uphold the monarchy but both appear to leave His Majesty on the sidelines. The two claim to be royalists and at the same time invoke the monarchy to boost popularity and smear one another.

The PAD leaders have portrayed themselves as defenders of the Throne. The government is organising a grand ceremony to celebrate the King’s birthday.

Neither the PAD nor the government seem to care for His Majesty’s advice relating to the political turbulence and how to end it. It is time to stop paying lip service for being a royalist and start acting like one.

While the government and the PAD are being blinded by greed for power, a foreign ally of Thailand is working behind the scene to seek the royal advice and petition for the intervention of the King. It is unfortunate that in troubled times Thais seem to have forgotten to petition for a solution from their own King.

BP: Why does Avudh equate the government and the PAD as the same - I don't equate The Nation with The Manager (oops it is bankrupt now, ASTV Manager). One group seizes the airport, Government House etc. Even UDD, who I don't support, protests at stadiums and other places which don't disturb others. One protests legally and is protected by the Constitution does, the other doesn't. When has the government sought to destory PAD? They let them have their TV channel, radio channels, newspapers etc. A bunch of criminal thugs have overtaken an airport and the writer 

Haven't there been numerous petitions to HM the King to intervene? Funny, he fails to mention Prem and his role.

I imagine this foreign ally is the US.

15:30pm Ignore The Nation's translation, Matichon reports (and Thai Rath confirms) that PM Somchai has stated in an interview that he is willing to negotiate with the PAD, but it must be without the pre-conditions of dissolution or Somchai resigning.

BP: So how will PAD respond? Well, here is Sonthi L about the same time:

"การชุมนุมของพวกเราถูกต้องตามรัฐธรรมนูญ...ฉะนั้นแล้วการจะมาบุกยึดเอเอสทีวีนั้น เราไม่เปิดประตูให้แน่นอน แล้วถ้าบุกเข้ามายิงเรา เราก็ยิงสวนกลับไป ถ้าต้องตายก็ต้องตาย พี่น้อง ขอให้พี่น้องทุกคนอยู่รอดปลอดภัย ขอบพระคุณมากครับพี่น้อง”

[Our protests are in accordance with the Constitution...Therefore, if they enter ASTV, we won't open the door for sure. If they enter and fire, we will fire back for sure. If we must die, then we will die. Fellow Thais, I hope you are all safe. Thank you very much"]

BP: In case you think I just choose the most inflammatory, I am choosing the part that ASTV highlights - this is their lead article now. The other part they highlight is about if we must die then we die, but it makes the country better. If not then there is no point living because it has no meaning. I will now live with the satanic/hellish animal (he then goes to talk to Thaksin). This kind of rhetoric is common. Is there any other way to describe the PAD as anything other than a cult? 

For some photos of inside the airport see here (note the large number of supplies) and some photos from The Manager of the police near the airport.

14:45pm Bloomberg reports that no success yet with negotiations:

“We are still waiting to negotiate with protest leaders today,” government spokeswoman Suparat Narkbunnum said by telephone. “Any move will be carried out tactfully to avoid violence.” The government hasn’t given a specific reason for Police Chief Phatcharavat Wongsuwan’s removal.

Here is the full State Department statement:

The United States is deeply concerned about the actions of the People’s Alliance for Democracy (PAD) in seizing Bangkok's international and domestic airports, preventing the free movement of people and goods. While we respect the right to freedom of expression, seizing an airport is not an appropriate means of protest. We urge the PAD to walk away from the airports peacefully. We hope that this situation can be resolved without violence and in accordance with the law.

BP: No doubt the PAD will either (1) spin it as criticism of the government, or (2) say that Thaksin has brought off the US government. 

14:30pm Matichon reports that PAD leader Chamlong will talk with Somchai, but it must be in person and not in Chiang Mai as it is too far. Expect that things will get better before December 5.

BP: Delaying tactic? Sondhi L's rhetoric is anything but peaceful as you can see in the rest of the article. Says the authorities are planning to cease broadcasting at ASTV and the police will shoot at the protesters.

Matichon also reports that the metropolitan police are to make the airport a prescribed area under the state of emergency legislation. This makes it a criminal offence to enter the area without permission.

BP: This provides the power to arrest immediately, without the need to seek an arrest warrant.

พล.ต.จำลอง ศรีเมือง แกนนำพันธมิตรประชาชนเพื่อประชาธิปไตย แถลงข่าวพร้อมเจรจากับรัฐบาล แต่ตัวแทนของรัฐบาลต้องเป็นนายสมชาย วงศ์สวัสดิ์ นายกรัฐมนตรีเท่านั้น และเป็นการคุยต่อหน้าเพื่อเห็นหน้าตากัน ไม่ใช่ทางโทรศัพท์ ส่วนสถานที่นั้น เป็นที่ใดก็ได้ แต่ไม่ใช่จังหวัดเชียงใหม่ เพราะอยู่ไกลเกินไป อย่างไรก็ตาม คาดว่าสถานการณ์ทางการเมืองที่เกิดขึ้นจะจบลงก่อนวันที่ 5 ธันวาคมที่จะถึงนี้

13:40 pm Bangkok Post:

Police yesterday found 15 home-made guns, an axe and other weapons in a Dharma Army six-wheel truck taking 20 protesters to Suvarnabhumi airport.

BP: Last week, Abhisit was complaining abothe PPP involving religion and politics...

13:30pm Tectona in a comment makes a good point:

The airport is very big. For the police to actually evict the PAD, who have had some time to set up defensive perimeter and fortify their defense, it will be very challenging.

Conventional combat wisdom call for 3-to-1 offensive to defensive ratio. Let's say that PAD has about 1,000 people who's willing to put up the fight. Then the police will need 3,000. 

Police can use tear-gas and are equipped with shield, baton, and such. But their long-range weapon are ineffective since PAD can retreat to the building as the last resort. It will be easy for well-trained paramilitary PAD gaurds to defend the chokepoints. This will offset any numerical advantage of the police.

Just moving force close to the airport itself will be difficult. There are few entry roads, and these are easily defended. The defenders can see police coming from miles away.

Considering the difficulty of actually storming the terminal, it's understandable why the police hasn't acted. If they screw up, the police may take heavy casualties. They probably will need Bruce Willis indeed. 

BP: It reminds me of the Waco siege in more ways than one (look at how that ended). I imagine they will have to go in with tear gas and start on the outer with the PAD guards. PAD appear to be detaining police as hostages. Will they move on before December 2?

13:15pm On NBT, we have the head of the tourism industry (didn't catch the official organsiation name, but his name is Kongkrit) and the quotemeister himself, Thitinan. Tourism guy says there are about 100,000 foreigners stuck in Thailand and have given a special tourism budget of 2,000 baht per day. They are trying to find another airport from U-Tapao

Thitinan: Problems in the short-term on what the government should do, but in the long-term there will be affect on tourism.

Tourism guy: Worst crisis for tourism forever, much worse than tsunami. Don't believe they will come back as soon as the airport is open. At least 6 months to one year before some of them come back. Says in the high season, normally 200 billion baht, but it will be halved. Says the BOT estimate of 140 billion baht is a very conservative estimate and it will be much higher. Another problem is Thailand has been hub/transit for international flights, but there is a worry that airports will change.

Thitinan: Tsunami was a natural disaster which is infrequent. From people (tourists and investors) he has spoken to, they affect will be long-term. The location of the current siege is different. At Government House, tourists don't go there, they didn't see it and little affect on them personally. They all go to the airport so it affects everyone.

Economic impact of the siege from The Nation:

Electronics and computer companies are losing Bt1 billion a day since the shutdown of Suvarnabhumi Airport, which has suspended the supply of parts to assembly lines and exports, according to the Board of Investment (BoI). At least 200,000 workers are at risk if production stops temporarily.

In addition, the Bank of Thailand has estimated a Bt140 billion drop in tourism revenue and an expected current account deficit this year. Japan's rating agency R&I has changed Thailand's rating outlook from "Positive" to "Stable", due to a mixture of international and domestic factors.

"Given the prospects for political and social instability to be prolonged, and the fact the economic slowdown trend worldwide has become more pronounced, the possibility that Thailand will be unable to avoid a further economic slowdown in the future has emerged," it said in a statement.

BoI deputy secretary-general Sudjit Inthaiwong said after a discussion with the Electronic and Computer Employers' Association that some of these companies have to shoulder penalties of US$100,000 (Bt3.53 million) per hour for delayed shipments and they risk losing business for the next few years if clients shift orders to other countries.

"We'll ask the Royal Thai Air Force to ship the products with C130 aircraft if the shutdown continues," he said.

The sector generates Bt700 billion a year.

BP: Class action suit against PAD?

13:00 AP:

The United States says it is "deeply concerned" about thousands of protesters who have occupied Thailand's airports in an anti-government campaign that marks the country's worst political crisis in decades.

State Department spokesman Gordon Duguid said Friday that the action by the People's Alliance for Democracy is "not an appropriate means of protest."

Duguid said the United States is urging the protesters "to walk away from the airports peacefully."

Thailand's capital remains completely cut off from air traffic.

BP: Would the PAD dare to take on the marines at the US Embassy?

00:30am Ed in Reuters:

Dozens of riot police with truncheons and shields gathered at Suvarnabhumi, but took no action against the People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD) protesters camped outside the main terminal.

Police at Don Muang airport ordered protesters there to leave immediately, but softened the edict by saying they hoped the situation would return to normal within three days.

In a televised address, Somchai said he would avoid violence.

"Don't worry. Officials will use gentle measures to deal with them," he said, inviting rights groups and journalists to watch.

...

"Last time it was like shooting yourself in the kneecap, but this time it's in the head," Tourism and Sports Minister Weerasak Kowsurat told Reuters, referring to the PAD's brief closure of the airport on the tourist island of Phuket in August.

Dug in behind a series of barricades of fire trucks, razor wire, car tyres and luggage trolleys at Suvarnabhumi, the PAD say they are ready for a prolonged siege.

PAD youths, some wearing body armour and armed with everything from wooden stakes and rusting scythes to golf clubs, manned checkpoints, stopping cars to look for plainclothes police or pro-government gangs.

"They're for hitting the government people, but at the moment he's just practising his swing," said 60-year-old retired lawyer Ronald Vilyu, as a colleague teed up to an imaginary golf ball with a seven iron.

BP: Isn't he just looking for violence?

22:45pm Time:

Meanwhile, the government removed National Police Chief General Gen Phatcharawat Wongsuwan on Friday without giving a reason. "Nobody wants to have blood on their hands," said Sunai Phasuk, the HRW representative in Thailand. He said that the police chief, like the army chief, was reluctant to move quickly against the protesters for fear of a bloodbath. Police officials had said on Thursday they would begin by trying to talk the protesters out of the airports.

Government spokesman Natthawut took a harder line. "I am informed by a non-governmental organization that the international human rights organizations and foreign diplomats want government to evacuate over 3,000 tourists to safety first then the government can do anything with the protesters. They will not oppose or question government about it actions against the protesters," Natthawut told reporters.

Sunai said that was a distortion of a conversation he had with Natthawut in which he told the spokesman that the government had a responsibility to maintain law and order, but it couldn't just go into the airport with guns and use violence.

The risk of violence appears to be high, as police seized two PAD pickup trucks Friday heading to the airport carrying homemade guns and arrested the occupants. PAD guards have shot at pro-government supporters who pelted PAD members traveling to the airport in recent days. Several PAD guards have also been killed or wounded in recent days by grenade attacks by government supporters.

"The PAD has become an armed group," Sunai said. While the group's guards are armed, most PAD members occupying the airports are not. They are a mix of middle-aged women and men, and some parents with children.

Sunai strongly criticized PAD leaders for not demanding that parents with children leave the airports, as a police move against the protesters was being prepared. "They are getting like Jim Jones," Sunai said, referring to the American religious cult leader who led more than 900 of his followers in a mass suicide in Guyana in 1978.

BP: Nattawut needs to learn "spin" doesn't always work. It always sounded weird what he said earlier.

22:30pm According to Kao Kon Kon Kao TV program on MCOT, the new acting police chief is close connections with politicians Thonburi (Chalerm ?). He is a classmate of Pathchawarat, the guy he replaced. He is one year senior to Thaksin.

BP: Then again, he was appointed to the NLA to the junta so can't have been seen as a pro-Thaksin person.

21:40 Thaksin Interview

Thomas Crampton has some quotes (it was his interview!):

“The airports must be reopened and the protesters must respect not only the law, but the citizens of Thailand,” Thaksin said. “If no one respects the law, then law enforcement must be done.”

“This is dangerous for the country and there will be a long term effect if the Thai people are not united,” Thaksin said. “The protesters need to leave the airports.” “Those who violate the law must be prosecuted.

“If a coup were to happen, there would be bloodshed, this would not be an easy coup like in the past. The people in Thailand now face hardship since dictatorship came.”

Thaksin urged his supporters to “protect democracy”: “If you protect Democracy you may be painful for a while, but if you allow dictatorship to take over Thailand you are going to have a nightmare for your whole life.”

Thaksin’s message to the military: “They are officials whose salary is paid by taxpayer money, so they have to do what is wanted by the whole of the Thai people, not just for minority groups. They must respect Democracy. They must play by the rules. Being neutral means you have to observe the law.”

BP: Thanks to the commentator who pointed this out to me. 

20:05pm Manager reports PAD leader Sonthi L as saying they won't negotiate with the government. However, whether the protests will cease or not will depend on December 2. It is believed the government will dissolve parliament.

BP: So no automatic dissolution.

20:00 p.m The Manager reports that the court has dismissed the PAD appeal to revoke the injunction and require that all 13 leaders leave the airport. The PAD lawyer says they will appeal next week.

BP: It surely will be over by next week.

19:50pm AFP:

PROTESTERS occupying Bangkok's main international airport have agreed to hold formal talks with Thai authorities tomorrow.

Hundreds of police had also moved into position outside Suvarnabhumi international airport but it was "not for a crackdown", regional police deputy commander Major General Piya Sorntrakoon said.

Prime Minister Somchai Wongsawat declared a state of emergency around Suvarnabhumi and the domestic Don Mueang airport late yesterday, saying that the anti-government protesters were holding the country hostage. 

"The PAD (People's Alliance for Democracy protest movement) agreed to talks on Saturday," said Piya, after officials said earlier that initial overtures had been conducted over the telephone.

The talks would involve the governor of Samut Prakarn province where Suvarnabhumi is located, a representative of Airports of Thailand, the chairman of the national Human Rights Commission and the media. 

The Manager reports Democrat MP and PAD leader Somkiart as denying they have agreed to talks saying it is untrue and that it is just the police trying to create news.

BP: It could be that or the PAD trying to delay the dispersal. Are the 5 PAD leaders there? I doubt Sondhi L wants to get injured. What will he do with all his females at his liar?

19:30pm: The Nation:

The Metropolitan Police Bureau issued its first emergency statement Friday, asking protesters to leave the Don Mueang Airport immediately.

The Nation:

Sondhi Limthongkul, No-1 leader of People's Alliance for Democracy, told protesters not to believe that the People's Alliance for Democracy would give in and negotiate with police to move protesters out of the Suvarnabhumi International Airport and Don Mueang Airport .

"PAD leaders will never negotiate with police," Sondhi told the crowd at the government House.

Sondhi also warned police not to listen to orders from Interior Minister Kowit Wattana, saying the People Power Party would be dissolved by the Constitution Court after December 2 and the House would be dissolved and Kowit would lose power.

BP: So what will happen first, the dispersal or the judicial coup? So the House will automatically be dissolved?

The only thing I can think of is Section 126:

At a sitting of the House of Representatives or the Senate, the presence of not less than one-half of the total number of the existing members of each House is required to constitute a quorum, except that in the case of considering the agenda on interpellation under section 156 and section 157, the House of Representatives and the Senate may otherwise prescribe a quorum in the rules of procedure.

BP: The Democrats then resign en mass so we lose 160 odd seats out of 480. Then, we have around 313 left. I am not sure how many Chat Thai, Matichima, and PPP executives there are who are MPs. If more than 70 then we cannot have a quorum until a by-election is held.  Anyone?

The Nation:

At 6:55 pm Friday, police equipped with M 16 assault rifles were deployed to block a main road to the Suvarnahbhumi International Airport.

Police set up a road block on the Lard Krabang- Suvarnabhumi Road and did not allow any vehicle to pass through.

BP: The PM was just on TV - I missed it - but caught the end the announcers stating that an announcement that the protesters must leave the airport otherwise legal measure would be taken against them under the state of emergency legislation.

btw, from what I understand almost all of the foreign tourists have gone. Some Thai, particularly Muslims going to Mecca did remain, and were going to Hat Yai (actually, for Army C-in-C was involved in all these negotiations - he is a Muslim).

Matichon reports that 5 PPP MPs who are party executives have resigned, including Surapong, Foreign Minister Sompong, and a PM Office Minister. I think this is all to do with the party dissolution next week as If PPP is dissolved and all its executives are punished then they will lose their MP status.  The reason for resigning now, and at least two others have already resigned, as if they are list MPs they will automatically be replaced by the next person on the party list. 

The Nation:

Police Commissioner-General Pol Gen Phatcharawat Wongsuwan was Friday removed as the national police chief and seconded to an inactive post at the PM's Office.

The government appointed police inspector-general Pol Gen Prateep Tanprasert as caretaker police commissioner-general.

BP: Prateep's bio is here - he was appointed by the junta to the NLA. PPP MPs are also seeking to impeach the NCCC.

UPDATE: Interesting change as Pol. Gen. Phatcharawat seemed a compromise candidate at the time of his appointment earlier this year - well as opposed to Thaksin's brother-in-law. His brother had been appointed Army Chief under Thaksin, but the same brother was also close to Anupong so how will Anupong respond now?

Reuters Bureau Chief outlines four outcomes to the PAD siege of the airports:

[1] POLICE STORM AIRPORTS
- Police have gone out of their way to avoid a fight with the PAD this week, mindful of the hundreds injured in last month's clashes outside parliament.

Evicting the protesters by force is the "last step", a police negotiator said on Friday. It would probably be bloody.

PAD "security guards", armed with clubs, scythes and golf clubs, are dug in behind barricades of fire trucks, luggage trolleys and razor wire.

PAD leaders deny their members are armed, but television footage of two PAD militants firing pistols at government supporters this week suggests otherwise.

BP: A 55% chance although the deadline seems to be December 2.

[2] PAD BACKS DOWN
The PAD has never backed down in its six-month campaign, which has seen the movement occupy Government House since August, disrupt parliamentary sessions at will, and defy court orders.

But the movement's backers may be getting nervous.

"The longer this crisis goes on, the more exposed and compromised the PAD's backers have become. And the PAD is continually dragging them down to the cut-and-thrust of Thai politics to their own detriment," Thitinan Pongsudhirak of Chulalongkorn University wrote this week.

BP: It seems unlikely, less than 5%.

[3] MILITARY COUP
It's never wise to rule out a coup in a country that has had, on average, one successful or attempted putsch every four years since the end of absolute monarchy 76 years ago.

Army chief Anupong Paochinda again suggested Somchai should quit this week, but insisted he was not putting pressure on the prime minister.

Anupong has repeatedly said he will not seize control, and the army could face a violent backlash from supporters of the elected administration. But some top-ranking officers do not agree with Anupong, as shown by the coup rumours swirling in Bangkok on Thursday.

BP: 10% chance - this is of the coup coming first.

[4] KING INTERVENES
- Regarded as semi-divine by many, King Bhumibol Adulyadej carries huge informal political clout and in six decades on the throne has intervened in several disputes, favouring both elected and military administrations.

However, the 80-year-old has stepped in previously only after major bloodshed, and his advancing years and deteriorating health raise doubts about his ability to calm any new outburst.

BP: If not before, why now? If there is widespread violence with more than 100 people dying then this seems the only chance, but before then less than 5% chance.

You also have a fifth option and that is PPP is dissolved next week, before HM the King's birthday, then so entity takes over, the so-called judicial coup option. Personally, I think this is a possiblity and will assign a 30% chance.

People who have been at the airport have not seen any passengers, it is taking a while to implement a plan...

Not The Nation:

Police say they are ready to reclaim the Bangkok International Airport with the help of Hollywood actor Bruce Willis, who is currently crawling inside Terminal 2’s air conditioning system.

 

Police say the ‘Die Hard’ star immediately ducked into a maintenance room and then climbed through a vent when he saw that the airport was being taken over on Wednesday.

 

He is now in communication with Bangkok police via a walkie talkie he lifted from a PAD guard whom he strangled to death. 

BP: Maybe they can send in Seh Daeng to help...

Via e-mail:

UNICEF expresses concern for safety of children at Bangkok airports

Bangkok, 28 November 2008 – The United Nation’s Children’s Fund (UNICEF) Office for Thailand is deeply concerned about the well being of children who are with parents and other family members participating in the demonstrations at Don Muang Airport and Suvarnabhumi Interational Airport.

UNICEF calls upon authorities and the leaders of the demonstrations to take all steps necessary to ensure the safety and well being of all children at those locations.

BP: Perhaps, the PAD should just move back to where ESCAP is and keep traffic

Matichon reports that the Constitution Court has announced that there is sufficient evidence to issue a decision for all three political parties. It is not necessary for additional evidence. Party leaders or their representatives can file a petition if they disagree by December 2 where they can make their closing argument. If not then it will be considered they accept the court's view

BP: In theory, one could see the dissolution of the parties next week. I don't think we will see a parliamentary dissolution before then.

 

The Thai is "ศาลพิจารณาแล้วเห็นว่าข้อเท็จจริงและพยานหลักฐานมีเพียงพอที่จะวินิจฉัยได้ ไม่จำเป็นต้องเรียกพยานหลักฐานและไต่สวนเพิ่มเติม ให้หัวหน้าหรือผู้แทนแถลงปิดคดีในวันที่ 2 ธ.ค.2551 เวลา 9.30 น. หากไม่แถลงให้ถือว่าไม่ติดใจ"ตุลาการศาลรัฐธรรมนูญ กล่าวและว่า ส่วนกรณีที่ผู้ถูกฟ้องมีข้อมูลเพิ่มเติมเพื่อต่อสู้คดีในประเด็นใดนั้น ศาลให้ส่งคำร้องคัดค้านมาพร้อมกันในวันที่ 2 ธ.ค.

Matichon reports the head of the Metropolitan Police as stating that after his meeting with Interior Minister Kowit and representatives from the armed forced that the police will start with soft measures, negotiation as they don't want to use force and cause bloodshed. They will first start negotiation over the phone.

They will then inform the protesters that they will be in breach of the state of emergency legislation if they remain so they are aware of the law. They have 10 methods [basically psychological warfare]

The PM advised that we should try to avoid any clashes and the loss of life. I have been in contact with the Police Chief in regards to how to carry it out. They will produce a document on what they are going to do and then ask NHRC, law society, NCCC, and the media for opinions. They will then televise the entire operation.

BP: I think it is taking too long, but I would prefer they get it right (ie follow a proper procedure of stages - negotiation, announcement of a deadline, water canons (can they use in an airport)instead of quickly rushing into it). I question the necessity of seeking advice on their procedure unless it can be done within a matter of hours, but then again all these entities will find fault with what they do so getting the sign off is the only way around this.

The Bangkok Post:

Prime Minister Somchai Wongsawat will remain in the northern city of Chiang Mai "indefinitely" because of tensions with the military, a government spokesman said.

Somchai was forced to land in Chiang Mai from a trip abroad on Wednesday after anti-government protesters seized control of Bangkok's two airports.

He declared a state of emergency at the airports on Thursday night as rumours of a possible military coup swept the capital, although the army said it was not intervening.

"As there are still uncertainties in the tensions between the government and army, for his safety the prime minister will stay in Chiang Mai," government spokesman Suparat Nakbunnam said.

"He has no schedule to return to Bangkok, he will stay in Chiang Mai indefinitely for his security," Suparat said

BP: The government has, in effect, moved to Chiang Mai.

Still no word on what is happening at the airport, Somchai is arranging a video conference with the military leaders and the NCCC are considering investigating the police and military for not taking action against the protesters.

UPDATE: I really don't see this as part of the NCCC's jurisdiction. If the Army C-in-C and the Police Chief won't act, he should either fire them or move them to a different position.

Rule of Lords:

Although both the alliance and its nemesis, the ousted Thai Rak Thai government, share contempt for democratic life, the contrasts between them in many respects could not be sharper. Whereas the former prime minister and his party twisted the electoral process for personal and political advantage, the people behind the current events are inimical to electoral politics.

Whereas the former government played with institutions to obtain its objectives, this group is hell bent upon laying waste to them. Whereas the Thaksin regime had some image of the future, the alliance leaders conceive of their country only with reference to an imagined past.

The irony is that while the alliance has emerged as the greatest threat to Thailand’s institutional order in modern times, it is a threat that is coming not from without but from within that order. While other countries are concerned with the danger of terrorist attack or political violence orchestrated against the state from outside, it is the super-conservative elements at the heart of the state that are responsible for the havoc being wreaked in Bangkok today.

Irrespective of what happens next, all Thailand’s core institutions have without exception suffered losses. Globally, their credibility has plummeted. It will not easily be recovered.

BP: With talk of puu yai calling the PAD to stop, I suspect that concern is over what they have unleashed and whether they can put it back into the box. PAD have not only mortally wounded themselves, but have hurt their backers. One future battle might be between PAD and some of their backers although given Sondhi L is known to turn against those he once supported, this might prove difficult for the backers to lay the blame only on the PAD's tactics.

If the government wanted to help itself, it should (if it has not done so) open dialogue with some of the backers. They should ignore the nationalist business crazies, but those in the financial sector well might be looking to jump ship and a carrot-and-stick approach (stick being we will name and shame you).

I know of someone who was meant to fly out a few days and is now stuck in Thailand because of the airport closure, but it is not all bad. Their destintation was Mumbai and the Taj.

The Nation:

Chamlong Srimuang, a co-leader of the People's Alliance for Democracy, said Friday morning that a senior person called him to end the rallies against the government.

Matichon reports Chamlong as saying มีผู้ใหญ่ท่านหนึ่ง. It sounds deferential. So which senior person called Chamlong?  Was it also the first call?

UPDATE: Yes, I should note that Chamlong rejected the call saying that PAD have gone too far now to go back.

It was amusing the first time I heard it, but another PAD leader has repeated it:

Sirichai Mai-ngam, one of the PAD leaders, said the group did not close Suvarnabhumi airport.

PAD supporters were only rallying, as was their right under the charter.

The AoT had shut the airport and cancelled flights.

BP: On a semantic and clintonian level, he is right PAD didn't close the airport, but I am not aware that anyone is saying they closed the airport or that there is a criminal offence of "closing the airport". However, the airport didn't close until PAD had breached police lines and were entering the airport. You can't have armed thugs roaming the airport. What is important is that PAD caused the closure and not who ordered the airport to be closed (there were certainly grounds to close it).

Bloomberg:

“The military won’t be successful if it tries to return power to the aristocracy and bureaucrats,” said Kanin Boonsuwan, a constitutional law professor at Bangkok’s Chulalongkorn University. “It will be chaos.”

BP: In the current environment, it is much more difficult to stage a coup and this is what it seems the PPP/ex-TRT rhetoric was, at a minimum, partly about yesterday.*

Still no word on what will happen at the airport.

*If they didn't get the message before yesterday, the army has now:

Col Sansern said a coup would mean the loss of lives as it would be resisted by the pro-government United Front of Democracy Against Dictatorship.

BP: The army prefers to sit on it hands for now.

I pushed the wrong button and deleted about 8 comments. I'll try to repost them, but it is not easy to work out which comments they were (there were a large number of comments in the last 24 hours). If it is any consolation, I read them all!

The Nation:

A news announcer was slightly injured when ASTV's head office was attacked with bombs.

An ASTV security guard, Pornchai Sanguanpoj, 41, told police that the assailants arrived on a white boat and threw two bombs against the head office on Phra Arthit Road at 2 am.

Pornchai said the assailants also fired an M79 at the building.

The explosions shattered the glass windows of ASTV, and Natthawut Mitmak, a TV announcer, suffered cuts over his hand while he was ducking for cover.

But ASTV officials would not allow police to enter the compound to investigate.

Pornchai himself was arrested when police found 6 rounds of 11-mm caliber pistol on him. He said he was shooting back at the assailants when police arrived at the scene so he threw his gun into the river.

BP: Matichon has some video. Perhaps, it might be a good idea to send police near to ASTV HQ - if it has not already been done - to provide protection. Then again preventing an attack from a boat is much more difficult and well if ASTV won't allow the police in to investigate, they probably won't be happy with the police nearby. 

Michael Connors blogs:

PAD ideologues continue to fashion a hybrid civic, liberal-conservative, royalist and corporatist rhetoric to justify its claims and actions. Its essential argument being that in the face of an illegitimate government, civil disobedience is a right and a duty. Yet, as was manifestly clear from Sondhi's speeches in June 2008 and the espousal of "new politics", sections of the PAD leadership effectively wish to replace the imperfect but majoritarian electoral democracy currently in place with one that returns Thailand to the "semi-democracy" of the 1980s, although one reconfigured as more virtuous and wise. This is the only solution some elitist liberals and conservatives can envisage in the face of the electoral strength of the pro-Thaksin forces. The willingness of those forces to develop Thailand in a manner that departs from the liberal-conservative compromise that characterised the 1990s is an added incentive to turn back the clock. 

As flagged previously, a Bonapartist solution to the prolonged crisis is not out of the question. Such a solution would deal a death blow to both currents in the drama now playing itself on the streets of Bangkok, and would lead to a regime hostile to the politics of both camps. 

Speculation on which side the military will fall is just that, and perhaps if a coup occurs in the next few hours or days it will be one of those rare events when the military turns on itself. 

BP: He then provides an excerpt from a forthcoming paper. The question then is, who is the white knight in shining armour?

btw, I like the French revolution terminology (ok-post revolution).

Ok, cleared a few things, back to blogging.

1:00am: Jonathan has a good article in BBC and notes:

There are no leaders who enjoy sufficient respect to drive a grand bargain between its polarised parties.

The age and frailty of King Bhumibol Adulyadej make intervention by him a forlorn hope

BP: I agree. Reuters has a good Q-and-A backgrounder.

I should point out the last 2 days of op-eds and editorials from The Nation it is clear that PAD has lost The Nation. You can almost sense their despair as the main movement has turned into the monster it has become. From today's editorial there is talk of lawlessness and pins the blame on both sides - no longer Thaksin alone being the source of all evil. Yesterday's editorial was very critical of the PAD.

Pravit:

The PAD leaders and followers, after spending months brainwashing each other with propaganda and a simplistic view of Thai politics, have become so intoxicated that they must think everything they do is right - whether others like it or not. Sad to say, what began as a protest attended by many well-intentioned citizens has turned into something bordering on a political cult centred around a few non-accountable leaders.

But please think for a second, PAD members and supporters, whether what you're doing will really bring about democracy and law and order.

My hunch is that it will not. Shutting the country's main airport will not bring democratic reform. It will terrorise the Kingdom, scare away tourists and visitors, and disappoint the public, who may once have been sympathetic to your concerns about rampant corruption and the recent deaths of and injuries to PAD supporters.

As for the Somchai administration, if it cannot ensure law and order and re-open the airport in a civilised way, or disperse the protesters at the airport with regard to the safety of all, then it should resign or call for a fresh general election.

 A lame-duck government doesn't deserve to run the country. It simply cannot run it any longer.

BP: He is stuck in Seoul too! The goverenment has to act.

To get an idea on the change in the intellectual shift from an anti-Thaksin position to an anti-PAD position, see this article in The Nation:

The academics included Thanet Aphornsuvan, Yukti Mukdavijit, and Chaiwat Satha-Anand from Thammasat University, as well as Puangthong Pawakapan from Chulalongkorn University.

Together, they yesterday issued a statement under "The Rule of Law Thailand".

The statement said Thai society could no longer allow the PAD to stay above the law.

"The state officials must end PAD rallies. The country is now heading towards chaos because the government has repeatedly failed to ensure that political activities must be in line with laws," the statement said.

The siege of the Suvarnabhumi Airport by the PAD is like taking people and the country hostage, the Rule of Law Thailand said.

"The PAD has caused immeasurable damage to the country just because it wants to pressure the government, chiefs of armed forces and business groups to heed to its demands," the statement said.

It said PAD's rallies were no longer legitimate.

The Rule of Law Thailand also condemned the use of violence by PAD and its rivals.

"The means adopted by PAD will finally lead to the accumulation of weapons and encourage violence," Chaiwat said.

BP: Chaiwat and Thanet are very prominent academics. Even the pro-PAD and anti-Thaksin academics are silent these days. You have Thitinan etc. When was the last time you heard from Thirayuth?

AP:

"We will not leave. We will use human shields against the police if they try to disperse us," PAD leader Suriyasai Katasila told Reuters.

BP: Unsurprising.

Midnight Thai Rath reports that Democrat MP and PAD Leader Somkiart has threatened to block 50 intersections in Bangkok and surround the city halls in the 16 southern provinces as well as close the highway in Chumpon (I assume them blocking off the route to Bangkok. Also, the court has ordered PAD out of Don Muang airport immediately.

23:00pm Yoon logic:

But then, Somchai's departure from office won't be a big blow to the country. In fact, his passive and dismally ineffectual style of governing has helped substantiate the PAD's vocal and persistent accusation that he was behind the so-called state-sponsored terrorism in the form of bombs from M79 grenade launchers, one after another, over the past week.

BP: Samak was fesity and he antagonised the protesters so he was to blame. Now, Somchai is too passive and because he doesn't go on air to dismiss every PAD fantasy he has helped substantiate the PAD accusations that he is behind the so-called "state-sponsored terrorism" (so-called indeed).

Yoon continues:

The PAD has, from day one, dubbed Somchai "Thaksin's stooge". After October 7, when police were ordered to use force to disperse protesters in front of Parliament House, he was known as a "blood-stained prime minister". And soon after former premier Thaksin Shinawatra was sentenced to two years' imprisonment, the premier inevitably became the nominee of a political convict.

But Somchai has never publicly said anything critical of the PAD. In fact, he has even sounded conciliatory, expressing his readiness for negotiations with his worst enemy. The olive branch, however, quickly withered away when Somchai's lieutenants started firing verbal salvos and unidentified gunmen used M79 grenade launchers almost nightly to attack the PAD's guards.

 While the PAD's ASTV was spewing round-the-clock vitriol against the "remnants of the Thaksin regime", Somchai turned a blind eye to his officials using government-run NBT (Channel 11) to launch vehement counter-attacks against the PAD. Clashes between followers of the yellow and red factions became more frequent and deadly

BP: Counter-attacks? And the rhetoric? What olive branch did the PAD ever offer? 

10 pm Sunai of Human Rights Watch is on ThaiPBS and states that the seizure of the airport is a very severe measure and a breach of many laws. Doesn't see the declaration as being out of the ordinary or too severe and probably the best tool although it will depend on how the authorities use it. A Thammasat University political science professor agrees.

Sunai states that it needs to be dispersal and not suppression. They can't just use force. They need to make an annoncement on how they will proceed and there are processes to follow He states the activites of PAD almost fit within the definition of a terrorist act. They have broken many laws and are in breach of international law. The law allows the state to use force, but it must only do what is necessary. Basically, the Thammasat University political science professor agrees, but then talks the military are an important factor and wonders whether the army will step in. He then talks about how the urban people insult the rural people that they are stupid, sell their votes etc.

Sunai then goes on to makes some points about the problems of the use of the state of emergency law in the Deep South. There are possibilities of abuse so the government must ensure this doesn't happen. Both sides must see each other haumans. 

Sunai talks about the changes in PAD from an entity concerned about corruption and within a sphere of normality before the coup to a completely different entity now.

BP: I almost forgot. Marwaan of IPS has a good article "Heading For Mobocracy?" which quotes Sunai:

The airport siege began on Tuesday night, when hundreds of PAD supporters, sporting yellow shirts in a sign of loyalty to the country’s monarch, arrived in a convoy of vehicles and blocked two ends of a road in front of the terminal. 

While PAD leaders mounted a mobile stage to rant against the government, thuggish-looking PAD men, armed with wooden clubs, iron bars and knives walked into the terminal to assert their authority. Some of the men wore black balaclavas, with faces covered, to conceal their identity. 

On Tuesday night, hundreds of policemen, armed with riot gear, gave in to a PAD mob in the same way they had given in to thousands of PAD protesters who had laid siege to parliament on Monday to block the legislature from sitting. On that day, the PAD also stormed the old airport, north of Bangkok, to stop a cabinet meeting. 

Such tactics have grown out of the PAD’s success in late August, when it forcefully took over Government House, the prime minister’s office, and converted it into a staging area for protests. 

The PAD draws its support from urban elites, royalists and the conservative bureaucrats. Its ability to break the law with impunity stems from the backing it has got from very influential figures in this kingdom. 

The PAD’s storming of the airport ‘’has taken protests here to a new level. It is anarchist,’’ says Laurent Malespine, head of Don’t Blink, a political and media research company. ‘’The disruption of normal life is worse than before. This is something Thais cannot accept.’’ 

Others are harsher following this week’s turn of events. ‘’This is the biggest form of political blackmail ever experienced in Thailand,’’ says Sunai Phasuk, Thai researcher for Human Rights Watch, the global rights lobby. ‘’They are holding the entire country hostage.’’ 

‘’The PAD has committed grave violations of domestic law and violated domestic and international human rights principles,’’ Sunai told IPS. ‘’They have been using weapons to attack people with the aim to kill. This movement is turning into a criminal gang.’’ 

This week saw such a confrontation, when armed PAD guards were captured on camera shooting at pro-government supporters with live rounds of bullets. Behind the men firing with revolvers was another PAD supporter holding up a picture of the country’s monarch. 

The PAD, too, has seen two of its supporters die and hundreds injured during a confrontation with the police in early October when it surrounded the parliament to stop the legislature from sitting. There have also been other clashes between PAD guards, armed with clubs and revolvers, and pro-government supporters, some armed with knives. 

BP: It is really becoming a state of nature. Any Hobbes fans out there?

9:45pm Matichon reports PAD leader Suriyasai as stating tonight that PAD will "fight to the death". If the government disperses the protests, but PAD will continue protesting. We won't stay still. Up until now, PAD have protested peacefully. Our lawyers have submitted a petition to the court to cancel the state of emergency as there is no need to use a state of emergency.  We son't allow them to hurt us easily. The reason PAD have come out and protested is because the army has never done anything for the people. On what the Army C-in-C came out to announce yesterday is like a joke. It will cause people to no longer trust him. We probably won't call for the army to stage a coup anymore.

PAD will ask for Somchai to resign before stopping protests or negotiating. PAD have become aware that after tonight the "red shirts" will disguise themselves in "yellow shirts" and cause damage. The police should arrest them.

BP: It should be noted that the words "fight to the death" (สู้ตาย)  are often as an exaggeration

PM Somchai Live on NBT:

I would like to explain about what the government is doing. I invited the Ministers in the Cabinet to Chiang Mai for a Cabinet meeting. He then goes onto explain about what they were doing during the Cabinet meeting (i.e megaprojects). He said that the losses are in the billions each day. This includes agricultural products and they cannot send their products overseas. In the tourism industry, they are also affected from hotels, taxis etc. 

They are holding the people and the country hostage. Courts have issued injunctions and we hope they comply. A state of emergency has been declared in the two areas. It is necessary, but it is only temporary. The responsible Minister is the Interior Minister. Police are responsible but have asked the military to provide assistance.

We are democracy and have security. To protect democracy and security and all the people.

There were many rumours today including movement of the military. I have worked closely with the military.

BP: So how long will they negotiate with PAD for? It would be smart to make it a long negotiation (well I mean in hours, not days) to show they are doing everything to avoid injuries. 

The Nation:

Public Health Minister Chalerm Yoobamrung confirmed that the Cabinet resolved to declare state of emergency over the Suvarnabhumi and Don Mueang airports.

Speaking to reporters via a teleconference at 5:50 pm that the government would declare state of emergency for Suvarnahbumi and Don Mueang airports and would assign police to handle the situation.

He said the Metropolitan Police chief would be in charge of situation at the Don Mueang and the commissioner of the Provincial Police Bureau 1 at the Suvarnabhumi.

and also:

Public Health Minister Chalerm Yoombamrung said he instructed the permanent secretary for Public Health to prepare 30 emergency medical teams in the aftermath of expected police's crackdown on protesters.

He said police would try to negotiate with protesters first.

"But if the negotiations fail, let's keep our fingers crossed," Chalerm said.

"I want the negotiations to be successful because I don't want to see bloodshed.

BP: Chamlong is quoted in Matichon as stating that if there is any dispersal of protesters they will come back tomorrow in greater numbers.

The Nation:

Prime Minister Somchai Wongsawat will declare state of emergency specifically for the Don Mueang and Suvarnabhumi International airports to empower police to break the demonstrations, a source said.

The prime minister would not use military forces to deal with the protesters but would use police.

The source said forces from the Metropolitan Police Bureau would be deployed to crack down on protesters at the Don Mueang airport and police from the Provincial Bureau 1 would be used to deal with protesters at the Suvarnabhumi.

BP: I doubt there can be criticism that it is making the situation worse for tourists. I am glad to see a state of emergency (and this restriction of rights) limited to only the areas affected.

6:15pm Thai Rath reports that Kasikorn Bank and DTAC have denied being financial backers of PAD.

BP: Yesterday, both the front legs and the hind legs of the little elephant mentioned those in the financial community were PAD backers (Bangkok Bank and Kasikorn)

6pm The Nation:

Natthawut said the government would like to call on the military not to mobilise the troops because the military leaders would not be purged.

Minutes after Natthawut talked to reporters, Army-run TV Channel 5 ran a running text at the bottom of TV screen saying troop movements that were seen by the public were soldiers returning from a demonstration held for Army cadets.

The PAD, meanwhile, was cautious, mooting a theory that the coup rumours were a decoy designed to distract the protesters at the Suvarnabhumi airport before an operation to disperse the crowd.

There were also grave concerns that a coup attempt could spark a nationwide violence involving pro- and anti-Thaksin mobs as well as the military. Suriyasai Katasila, a PAD leader, told The Nation: "Coup is the least of my concern now. I'm worried about violence because nobody seems to be in full control at the moment."

BP: So he is happy for the police to take control and restore law and order?

Thai Rath reports Col. Sansern, Defence Spokesman, has come out to state that the tanks seen on the street which has led to an understanding of a coup are actually not "tanks", but Scorpions [see here]. They were out on a performance excercise and are just returning to base.

BP: Somchai to speak at 6pm   

Perception: There will be a coup tonight, I hear before 8pm. PAD people believe this. PPP people believe this. Stories of tanks on the street. People going home on time as concerned of coup. Government has escaped to Chiang Mai to prepare for a coup.

Reality: I can't find any actual pictures of actual tanks of stress. There are plenty of pro-PPP websites so if there were tanks on streets and not just military vehicles, surely we would see it. PPP talking up rumours of a coup can be explained by (1) they fear a coup, and (2) they want to send a message to the army that now you are not directly responsible for the protesters, but if you stage a coup we will protest and you will be responsible for how it is dealt with. The press conference after the cabinet meeting has the spokesman as saying that they will not be getting rid of any military leaders. The time to stage the coup was really when most of the Cabinet Ministers were on a military plane going to Chiang Mai. Abhisit has even stated that a "coup would solve nothing...What would happen is that an even bigger conflict would be waiting down the line.''

Does this mean that there will be no coup? No, but the perception is there will definitely be a coup. Right now, I am of the view there is a much greater chance of a coup than anytime since September 20, 2006. I put the chance of a coup tonight at 30-40%. If a coup is to happen, it might be silent by order and edict as opposed to tanks on the street - PPP have said they are setting up base outside of Bangkok for parliament to issue orders against the coup orders - but well if Anupong gets approval for a coup it might make fighting back difficult. Then again, we may need on the record confirmation of approval for there to be limited protests. Such an intervention then and not now well... (some things are better left not said)

btw, a good background piece by Bloomberg (who are doing very well to compete with wires on political coverage.)

h/t to a reader who shall remain anonymous.

The Nation:

The closure of Suvarnabhumi Airport could cost the tourism industry about Bt100 billion over the next six months, coming as it does right at the beginning of the high season.

Tourism Council of Thailand president Kongkrit Hirunkit said the November-February holiday period contributes 40 per cent of Thailand's annual tourism revenue of about Bt200 billion. The political discord could cut this figure by half. And tourism growth targets for next year of 10 per cent in revenue and 5 per cent in visitors now also look shaky [BP: 5% is what I call an Angelina Jolie number*], he said.

Tourism Minister Weerasak Kowsurat said the country normally welcomes 100,000 visitors per day, of whom 70 per cent drop an average of Bt3,500 per day while here - a total of Bt245 million per day.

BP: Once those tourism companies go bankrupt and can't repay their Bangkok Bank/Kasikorn loans then what?

*This is a number which you can lust after or want, but is so far out of reach that well it defies reality. Actually, anything above -10% seems a good number.

... Matichon reports that court staff have posted the notice at the houses of the 13 leaders that they must leave Suvarnbumi immediately.

Thai Rath reports that PPP MPs believe there will be a coup tonight and are going to mobolise "red shirts". Also, that all 6 coalition parties agreed to use legal measures against the PAD who have broken the law to try to provoke a coup. PPP MPs have promised to mobolise not less than 20,000 persons per MP.

In Bangkok, MPs from the coalition parties will ask people to bring their cars on the streets or taxis to close roads to prevent a coup. The coalition parties believe a coup will happen tonight..

They are also going to release details of the financial backers of the PAD especially Bangkok Bank and Kasikorn bank. They will need to ask society's questions and explain to the people why they shouldn't withdraw their money. They will also opppose the purchase of goods from PAD supporting companies. They believe there will be no bloodshed.

Surapong has disclosed that 33 MPs have written a letter to the PM to fire Anupong. He says there is a "smell" of a coup in the air.

BP: A threat to the military on what will happen if you stage a coup? I am hearing of movements by the First Army.

Someone has alerted me to the fact that there is a photo with looks like red shirts on the vehicle with those guys who had the yellow armbands who were firing on people the other day (you know that one that was on TV where they hold HM the King above their heads). Photo is available here.

The Manager has rejected this and pointed out that they are actually red towels given out by PAD amd not red shirts! (เป็นเพียงกองผ้าเช็ดตัว ที่พ่อยกแม่ยกพันธมิตรฯ นำมาบริจาคให้ผู้ชุมนุมที่สนามบินดอนเมืองใช้เท่านั้น! ไม่ใช่เสื้อแดงอย่างที่ได้มีการพยายามสร้างข่าวให้เข้าใจคลาดเคลื่อนแต่อย่างใด)

BP: Does constitute a tacit admission that they were PAD guards? Maybe the PAD guards were outraged with the suggestion that they had red shirts in their possession (heinous crime of the century) and their firing of guns at unarmed people wouldn't be recognized as heroic acts to save the nation. Interesting article.

The Telegraph:

The upper classes are revolting and the common man is contemptuous.

At stake is two very different outlooks on how the country should spread its resources.

Thailand has traditionally been home to an affluent but small merchant class that dominated trade in south-east Asia.

But when Thaksin Shinawatra, a former police colonel who had made a fortune from mobile phone licences, turned to politics, he turned the country's social contract on its head.

Mr Thaksin spent government money on schools and rural health care. He gave farmers cash vouchers to buy better seeds to sow crops.

The elite saw a future of higher taxes, though not usurious levels of Europe, and grew increasing upset. The moneyed demonstrators want the traditional settlement restored.

...

As a mark of how Mr Thaksin's appeal is undiminished, women have called radio shows to proclaim they will wear only red underwear until their hero returns.

BP: I should point out that Thaksin never raised taxes on the rich (I am sure this is right as I looked previously into tax policy and don't remember seeing a single increase). Under his government, the level of debt to GDP also fell.

His policies helped the poor, but the tax policies of increasing the income tax threshold helped the middle class (and by default the rich although only marginally given their income) whereas the increase on the amount of the tax deduction for mutual funds is clearly aimed at the wealth - this is more noteable under PPP. Instead of the 200-500 baht each election cycle, the poor, like Oliver Twist, wanted just a little more (see a recent Chang Noi article for more). The temerity of asking for more seemed too much for the elite to take. There are some legitimate concerns over aspects of cronyism and there are instances of businesses associated with the opposition were affected, but most business interests weren't. I see the elite's fear losing their power over anything as their greater concern as the cozy relationship amongst the old elite was being broken up.

h/t New Mandala and to a journalist for the headline.

btw, Thaksin/TRT/PPP (and other Thai political parties) are difficult to characterise ideologically on the political map. The former communists and Samak being together seemed to surprise some people, but it is just Thai politics. You can say Thaksin helped the poor, but there was no nationalisation of assets or anti-foreign business community (think Chavez) or massive tax increases for the rich either. Lots of entrpeneurs and small enterprises also benefitted whereas some farmers didn't because of the free trade agreements - some of them benefitted in other ways too with access to money so to switch crops. PAD are also made of conservative religious folks, old elite money interests, trade unions, the middle class etc. So again a varied bunch.

With that teaser of a headline, you should give the article a read.

See this image from Matichon. Caption states that the military are moving tanks to the front of bases - this one is an air force base near Don Muang in case there is an incident with PAD.

[Caption in Thai: ทหารนำรถถังมาจอดไว้บริเวณด้านหน้าทางเข้าฐานทัพอากาศ เตรียมพร้อมหากเกิดเหตุกลุ่มผู้ชุมนุมพันธมิตรประชาชนเพื่อประชาธิปไตย เคลื่อนขบวนมาที่กองบิน 6 ดอนเมือง (บน.6)  ]

BP: What does this mean?...

Bangkok Post (Anucha Charoenpo)

The proposal by Army Commander-in-Chief Gen Anupong Paojinda and a panel of leading figures to end the crisis gripping Thailand has received a lukewarm reception from the general public who regard it as a seemingly ineffectual measure.

Gen Anupong yesterday called an urgent meeting of representatives from state agencies, academics and the business sector to seek solutions to the political chaos, which took a dramatic turn for the worse after thousands of People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD) supporters stormed into Suvarnabhumi airport, trapping thousands of passengers inside and in the process dealing a swift and savage blow to the country's image.

The panel came up with the idea of requesting a House dissolution and a new election, while demanding the dispersal of all PAD demonstrators.

It hit an immediate stumbling block when the PAD responded with a total lack of enthusiasm.

The reaction from the public was also not what the panel would have wanted. They feel Gen Anupong needs to exercise his authority and enforce the law to regain control over the mob so as to ensure lives and property are properly protected in the face of the escalation of the PAD's demonstration.

Many people fear that such an uncontrollable situation as is occurring right now can only lead to national insecurity, perhaps a civil war and widening social division.

Gen Anupong has remained adamant he will let police control the situation, but this is not happening and the situation is getting worse and doing considerable harm to the country. As things stand at the moment, the police are virtually incapacitated.

Gen Anupong, who was reportedly ordered by Prime Minister Somchai Wongsawat, who has been attending the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (Apec) summit in Peru, early this week to maintain peace and order in the country, seems to be doing nothing, not even trying to stop the protesters from getting into the interim government headquarters at Don Mueang airport and then Suvarnabhumi airport.

Gen Anupong is chairman of a situation monitoring panel set up by the government.

It begs the question of whether Gen Anupong has a political agenda. How does he feel about the PAD's latest protest move to overthrow the government? Is it possible for him to show genuine leadership to tackle the crisis?

BP: And who are these people? The writer don't quote a single person or make any reference to any poll (polls on this issue have been noticeably absent all week...). He may think that people are not happy with Gen. Anupong's response in regards to not doing anything about the mob first, and I think he is right, but it is not a fact, it is an opinion.

On his criticism on Gen. Anupong, I agree.

NOTE: Don't confuse the above with me wanting Gen. Anupong not to do anything regarding the mob and even that I disagree with the dissolution option.

The following is also interesting:

PAD leader and Democrat party-list MP Somkiat Pongpaiboon announced from a stage at Suvarnabhumi after the terminal was overrun that the prime minister had lost legitimacy to administer the country because he was a proxy of convicted former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra, as well as his brother-in-law. As soon as he arrives in the country, he must announce his resignation.

Mr Somkiat called the Suvarnabhumi operation a "Hiroshima" war. If it fails to overthrow the government, he said the PAD has a back-up plan called "Nagasaki", but he declined to disclose any details.

Given the significance of those two Japanese cities in the history of warfare, it's surely quite ominous.

BP:  I am glad the is is finding its ways into the English-language press. Apirak must resign because of the investigation into him, but the Democrats are all silent about Somkiat. Afraid that PAD will set up their own party? Come to think of it, maybe PPP should make a dissolution conditional on PAD joining the political process and either setting up a political party (siphoning off Democrat Party support) or joining an exisiting political party (requires the Democrats then to either accept or reject them instead meekly making carefully worded non-statements) and contesting the election. Now, that would be interesting...

AFP has the Canadian government response:

"Canada is deeply concerned about the ongoing political instability in Thailand, particularly the events of the past few days such as the closure of Suvarnabhumi International Airport," Foreign Affairs Minister Lawrence Cannon said in a statement. "Canada encourages the parties involved to seek a peaceful resolution to the situation. We strongly urge all sides to refrain from violence and to respect democratic values and the rule of law," he added.

BP: Perhaps, we should just blame Canada?*

*key words from the song and which the PAD and elite might want to sing:

We must blame them and cause a fuss

Before somebody thinks of blaming us!

Channel News Asia:

 Singapore's Foreign Affairs Minister George Yeo said there's "a cloud of uncertainty" over the upcoming ASEAN Summit in Thailand in December. 

He adds that a number of countries have already raised their concerns. But as member countries had assumed it will be held, Mr Yeo says there has been no contingency plan for this. 

He said "We are very troubled by it. We hope that all groups in Thailand will have the political will to compromise and find a way out for the country. The tourism industry is badly affected. I worry that the ASEAN summit will be affected." 

He was speaking to reporters on the sidelines of Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong's visit to Chile. 

BP: This is probably the least of the government's worries compared with what is happening with the tourism sector.

The Economist:

It invaded Bangkok’s main airport, prompting the army chief to call on the government to dissolve parliament and for the PAD itself to cease its protests. The PAD’s thuggish tactics have lost it much of the support it once had among Bangkok’s middle classes. Only a fraction of the promised crowd of 100,000-plus materialised this week for its “final” push to overturn the government. Pro-PAD union bosses’ calls for a general strike were generally ignored. But compensating for its dwindling public support is the high-level backing the PAD apparently continues to enjoy from elements in the military and the royal palace, including Queen Sirikit, which has so far rendered it untouchable.

The PAD began in late 2005 as a series of peaceful weekly rallies in a Bangkok park against the then prime minister, Thaksin Shinawatra. It gained traction because Mr Thaksin seemed to regard an electoral mandate as a licence to do as he pleased. Critics were menaced; conflicts of interest between Mr Thaksin’s powers as prime minister and his business empire went unchecked; and he sought to pack the country’s institutions with cronies. Only when his attempts to do this with the army's senior command finally exhausted rival factions' patience did he come a cropper, being removed in the coup of 2006.

But the PAD has shown itself to be at least as bad. As it goes all-out to bring down the government of Mr Thaksin’s allies, elected last December in a restoration of democracy, its tactics have become ever more threatening. This week its “security guards” shot at government supporters, brandished iron bars at police and hijacked buses. Arguing that ordinary Thais are too “uneducated” to vote for sensible leaders, the PAD is openly pushing for a return to the semi-democracy of the 1980s, with governments dominated by the traditional elite, the royal palace and the army.

In 1997, as Thailand passed what was widely seen as its most democratic constitution, the country looked set to be a beacon of pluralism in a region that badly needed such a shining light. Now it looks like a poor advertisement for democracy. It has disappointed those hoping it would follow the upwards path of other formerly authoritarian countries, like Spain and Brazil. Instead of evolving into a stable parliamentary democracy, it is back to being a country of coups, street fights and torn-up constitutions.

BP: There is then a discussion of Asian Values and democracy.

Srithanonchai in a comment at New Mandala:

In Phuchatkan (now renamed ASTVPhuchatkan) of November 26, 2008, Chermsak Pinthong, a former Thammasat lecturer and anti-Thaksin senator, and now a major PAD ideologue, published a programmatic article headlined “Thailand must not lose – the PAD must not lose!”

Chermsak listed ten reasons.

... [BP: Usual PAD fodder]

6) People’s sector politics will be weak. It will be destroyed so that it will not be able to act in order to put demands on and control the state power of the politicians. If the Thaksin regime returns to take total control of Thailand, it will try everything to destroy its enemies, so that they will not be able to raise and act against it again. This will include the destruction of the PAD’s “intellectual weapons of the people,” namely ASTV, some sectors of the community radio network, and the Internet. [BP: Remind me again who passed the Computer Crimes Act and exactly who is trying to suppress PAD views now?] The Thaksin regime had learned how important these modern means of communications were for the power of the PAD.

7) Peaceful protests will be devalued. The PAD had always protested peacefully and never used violence. If such peaceful means cannot succeed in making evil politicians come to their senses and show responsibility, then future protests might chose violent means, including assassinations, to be successful. [One remembers that, a few weeks ago, and in the same paper, Chai-anan Samudavanija had suggested that some elements of the PAD, if success was not forthcoming, might go underground, identify corrupt politicians, and assassinate them. Later, Chai-anand suggested at a seminar that 4-5 politicians should be executed as examples for the others. Since Chermsak repeats this line of thinking, one might assume that such ideas are common among PAD leaders.]

 People in the North and the Northeast will continue to be mere tools for politicians to get into power. They will not act like sovereign owners of power with human dignity, but easily be swayed by populist policies.

9) The Thai political system will be a democracy of only a few families [BP: Isn't this actually what they want?].

10) The monarchy will become a mere symbol without any significance in society, while leading families of the Thaksin regime will lift their status to the same level.

The defeat of the PAD will mean the defeat of Thailand! Therefore, the PAD must not lose, because Thailand must not lose!

The time has come for the Thai people, both within and outside the PAD network, to come out and join hands to fight against the Thaksin regime!

BP: I notice a hardening of views from some PAD supporters I know. Is this Nagasaki?

The quotemeister in full in an op-ed in the Bangkok Post:

By physically shutting down Suvarnabhumi airport, the People's Alliance for Democracy has upped the stakes in Thailand's ongoing political polarisation. It has demonstrated the extent to which it will resort to mob violence to achieve its aims. 

The PAD is bent on creating the conditions of ungovernability and then to demand the ouster of Prime Minister Somchai Wongsawat on grounds that Thailand is ungovernable.

Its tactics have warped into a blatant street campaign of intimidation and fear, of coercion and force.

That the PAD has come this far in its thuggish ways is attributable to its powerful backing, without which its relative impunity in the face of flagrant violations of the law can hardly be explained.

The PAD's latest antic at Suvarnabhumi airport will likely narrow its support base, especially in Bangkok as the capital reels from the longer-term impact of the airport closure to business confidence, but its remaining columns will still be deep in their resolve to get their way.

What the PAD wants has not changed. After an unsuccessful bid under the guise of the so-called "new politics," it first demanded the ouster of former prime minister Samak Sundaravej earlier this year, and it is now after Prime Minister Somchai Wongsawat.

To reach its endgame, the PAD has to clear the slate of government, led by the People Power party. As a result, the PAD has bayed for blood, openly inviting a military coup in order to bring up an interim arrangement.

This would allow the PAD to either rewrite the current constitution or come up with an entirely new charter. Its ultimate objective is to fashion the rules of the democratic game to guarantee elite representation in the elected parliament through partial appointments.

Its logic is simple. A one-man, one-vote democratic system will indefinitely return the same parliamentary faces with a similar populist policy agenda that has appealed to the vast majority of the electorate in the Northeast and North, who voted for deposed prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra and his disbanded Thai Rak Thai party for six years and for Mr Samak and Mr Somchai and PPP more recently.

Unsurprisingly, the PAD has openly shown disdain for these rural constituencies as faceless and gullible vote-sellers who should not be counted on equal terms with the PAD's urban minority in Thailand's electorate.

But the PAD faces a daunting uphill task in resetting the political environment and realising its anti-democratic agenda.

Somehow it would have to dislodge the PPP and perhaps its successor Puea Thai party from elected power, and to keep them out.

The PAD would then have to force an interim period during which its cadres would assert themselves in charter alterations. In an age when democratic rule is an emerging norm of the international community, when information is more widely accessible due to new technologies, any anti-democratic movement will be hard-pressed to get away with elite dominance.

Yet the PAD has shown that it is willing to go all the way.

It is willing to hold Thailand captive by disrupting airport operations, and to even cause an international embarrassment as Thailand gears up for its chairmanship of the Asean and East Asia summits in Chiang Mai next month.

Only its backers can pull the plug on the PAD but they may now be too insecure and paranoid to go back.

The longer this crisis goes on, the more exposed and compromised the PAD's backers have become.

And the PAD is continually dragging them down to the cut-and-thrust of Thai politics to their own detriment.

While the stakes are high, with wide and deep longer-term damages, it is not too late for the PAD's backers to rein in this rabid and reckless movement or to pull its plug altogether.

The ultimate danger for the PAD on the one hand and for Thailand on the other is not from the government, army or police - but from the red shirts banded under the United Front for Democracy Against Dictatorship.

Capable of a corresponding sort of mob violence, these UDD red shirts have decidedly displayed patience, order and restraint in their recent mass rallies, in deliberate contrast to the PAD's open incitement of violence and gross distortions of information. Widespread civil strife would be the outcome in the event the UDD turns on the PAD in full force.

A House dissolution, as proposed by army chief General Anupong Paojinda, is a release valve from such a UDD-PAD clash.

Although it would not resolve Thailand's urban-rural structural crisis in the long term, a new slate through new elections would buy time for the various protagonists to come to their senses and for Thai voters to have a say after a year of turmoil and volatility.

It is an option which Prime Minister Somchai should not dismiss out of hand for self-righteous reasons, especially if he is confident of his party's - and successor party's - winning policy platform.

The same goes for the People's Alliance for Democracy - if it still claims to stand for the Thai people.

BP: It is not a question of who will the next battle, but who will win the war (hey the metaphor fits!). PAD have increased the chances that they will win the next battle, but they and their backers have been left exposed for the rest of the "war". A dissolution seems the only option now, but it is a matter of working out the details for PPP to ensure they can participate in the election in some form and that there will not be an interim administration who will rule by decree and change the constitution. Then again if the elite try that PAD's backers will be fully exposed and UDD will no doubt mobilise.

Last night at the book launch at the FCCT, I understand that Chang Noi mentioned that there was quiet murmuring amongst some PAD backers that things had gone too far, but then noted that the important people from the business associations had yet to speak out. This seems to have changed now as The Nation reports:

Business leaders yesterday denounced the People's Alliance for Democracy's siege of Suvarna-bhumi Airport, saying Thailand would suffer grave tangible and intangible damage from the mass cancellation of flights that left large throngs of angry passengers stranded.  

"The suspension of operations has hurt not only the overall economy but also the Kingdom's image," said Thanit Sorat, vice chairman of the Federation of Thai Industries and chairman of its logistics club.

The sealing off of the country's aviation gateway would cost the air cargo business Bt1 billion per day, as freight handling has had to be temporarily halted, he said.

Without air cargo operations, perishable goods such as fruits and vegetables as well as electronic and auto parts cannot be transported.

...

Customs officials said goods worth Bt12 billion a day pass through customs procedures at the airport, but customs operations have now been paralysed.

Poj Aramwattananont, president of the Thai Frozen Foods Association and major seafood exporter Wales Group Factories, said the political conflict should not have spilled over to the international airport, which would send shock waves through tourism and trading industries, and even the economy as a whole.

"The political conflict is hitting the overall economy, which is unfair to all Thais," he said.

...

It is especially damaging to a tourism country. "I believe that it will take at least three years for the economy to recover."

Dusit Nontanakorn, vice chairman of the Thai Chamber of Commerce, said the repercussions of the civil action were beyond estimate and it was likely to scare away tourists.

He wants to see it end as soon as possible.

Dej Pathanasethpong, president of the Thai Garment Manufacturers Association, said the situation was more serious than previously, as businessmen cannot run their plants as normal.

"What Thailand is losing is not only foreign income from exports and logistics, but also the most important thing - its credibility," he said. 

BP: Now, if they could just get their fellow business leaders to stop donating money to the PAD. If the PAD are allowed to lay siege to the airport with impunity, what will happen to the next political group that dislikes a government?

The Nation reports:

The Civil Court Wednesday night issued an injunction, ordering the People's Alliance for Democracy and its supporters to leave the Suvarnabhumi International Airport immediately.

The court agreed with request of the AOT Plc, which filed a suit earlier in the day to seek an urgent injunction against the protesters.

Matichon quotes a PAD lawyer as stating they will appeal the court ruling and expect to appear before the court this afternoon.

BP: If the court issues a stay on the injunction, what kind of precedent will that set? How do the PAD leaders get bail? 

btw, PAD have closed down Don Muang, the domestic airport.

Ian Williams of NBC (US):

None of this is openly discussed by the Thai media, which is shackled by strict lèse-majesté laws which make it a crime to offend the monarchy, but the future of the Chakri Dynasty goes to the heart of the current power struggle.

One seasoned journalist summed it up nicely: "Covering this crisis is like trying to explain the unexplainable, without mentioning the unmentionable."

BP: They do mention it though...

h/t to a long-term reader

The Bangkok Post:

Prime Minister Somchai Wongsawat went on national television at about 10pm Wednesday and insisted he will not step down, citing that his administration was democratically elected by the majority of Thai people.

After arriving from the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (Apec) summit in Peru, Mr Somchai said he had no plans to dissolve the parliament, as the committee for monitoring political developments, chaired by national army chief Anupong Paojinda, proposed on Wednesday afternoon.

The premier also demanded the People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD) demonstrators to leave Suvarnabhumi airport and Government House because foreigners, tourists and other parties suffered the consequences, not only the government.

He vowed that his government will continue giving its utmost performance and called on the protesters to help restore normalcy in the country.

The cabinet meeting on Thursday will discuss urgent measures to deal with the political crisis, the prime minister said.

He also reminded state officials to strictly follow and abide by the laws and regulations.

Bloomberg has some quotes on what he said:

"We need to protect and restore democracy,'' Somchai said in an address broadcast late yesterday on national television. "The protesters are breaking laws as they are armed and have seized the airport, which is damaging the country.''

PAD had earlier dismissed Anupong's proposal stating:

"Dissolving the Parliament will still leave the country with social divisions,'' he told reporters at the airport late yesterday. "Mr. Somchai should step down and pave ways for a new government with people from various interest groups.''

BP: So we have an impasse.

Some quotes from Bloomberg:

"If not handled carefully, properly and soon, the country would tip toward anarchy,'' said Panitan Wattanayagorn, a political scientist at Chulalongkorn University in Bangkok. "When security evaporates, you are faced with a chain of events that can't be controlled.''

...

Surapol Nitikraipot, rector of Thammasat University, who sat alongside Anupong at the briefing, said the government must heed the army's call to step down.

"If the government rejects our proposal, we will not listen to them,'' he said. ``We will use civil disobedience.''

...

"What the PAD and its backers are unleashing is an even deeper crisis in Thai society, and who knows where it will land,'' said Giles Ungpakorn, a political science lecturer at Chulalongkorn University. ``The conservatives might force through a government they want at the moment that is going to cause deep resentment.''

AP:

Somchai Wongsawat, who gave a televised address just hours after returning from an overseas trip, said he would not allow the protesters to topple his elected government.

"My position is not important. But democratic values are," he said.

...

Suriyasai Katasila, a spokesman for the alliance, said later after a meeting of the alliance's leaders that the group would also continue to hold the other two locations they have overrun: the prime minister's office compound and another airport.

He added: "Dissolving the Parliament does not solve the problem.... We do not want Somchai's government, even as acting government before a fresh election is called."

...

The airport blockade — carried out while the prime minister was abroad — is a fresh blow to Thailand's $16 billion-a-year tourism industry.

Airport director Serirat Prasutanont, who had tried to negotiate with the protesters to allow passengers to fly out, said the takeover "damaged Thailand's reputation and its economy beyond repair."

The airport, the 18th-busiest in the world, handled over 40 million passengers in 2007.

"We don't have an estimate of financial loss, but it is greatly damaging," said Vijit Naranong, honorary chairman of Tourism Council of Thailand.

Demonstrators swarmed the international airport overnight, breaking through police lines and spilling into the passenger terminal.

Group Capt. Chokchai Saranon, a control tower official, said 50 masked protesters armed with metal rods demanded to enter the control tower Wednesday, seeking the prime minister's flight schedule. Three were allowed in, but with flights canceled, there were no controllers to provide the information and the protesters eventually left.

Reuters:

The crisis deepened as a pro-government gang shot dead an opposition protester in the northern province of Chiang Mai.

The man, whose son ran a small anti-government radio station, was dragged by the gang from his car and executed, senior policeman Atipol Thongdaeng told Reuters.

Times (UK) after getting some reaction from some tourists:

Speaking at the airport, a PAD leader, Pibhop Dhongchai, said that there was no point dissolving parliament unless Mr Somchai resigned unconditionally at the same time. "The solution is not the dissolution of parliament. If premier Somchai resigns then we will talk again about whether we will negotiate," he said.

AFP:

Thai premier Somchai Wongsawat on Wednesday rejected a call by the army chief to hold new elections, in a major escalation of tensions with protesters who have seized the country's main airport.

In a televised address, Somchai insisted the government elected in December was "legitimate" and said he had ordered an urgent cabinet meeting to restore order after thousands of tourists were stranded by the airport blockade.

His defiance of the powerful army chief in a country that has seen 18 coups added to the sense of crisis spreading through Thailand, with one political activist dying in a clash.

"I reassure the people that this government, which is legitimate and came from elections, will keep functioning until the end," Somchai said from the northern city of Chiang Mai, where he arrived earlier from abroad.

He added: "The protesters have broken the law with arms, have seized government house (his Bangkok office, occupied in August) and the airport. They have destroyed democracy with mob rule."

...

Governments around the world including China, France, New Zealand, Singapore, Britain, the United States, Australia and Japan warned their citizens to avoid Thailand and steer clear of protesters at the airport.

Britain voiced deep concern and urged all sides to seek a peaceful solution to the crisis while "respecting Thailand's democratic institutions," while Italy set up a crisis cell to repatriate stricken tourists.

Crispin:

Thailand's political conflict reached a point of no return on late Tuesday when anti-government protesters, led by the People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD), besieged and closed down Bangkok’s international airport. 

...

Anupong is thought to have consolidated his command through a recent military reshuffle, including through the promotion of pre-Cadet Academy Class 12 colleagues of his key ally, army chief-of-staff General Prayuth Chan-ocha. They now command positions responsible for Bangkok's security. 

That includes First Army Region Commander Lieutenant General Kanit Sapitak, who has echoed Anupong's non-interventionist line, but who raised new questions about the chain of command when he indicated without elaborating at a Supreme Command headquarters meeting on Tuesday that there were powers higher than Anupong in deciding whether the military should launch a coup. Anupong, Prayuth and Kanit all served previously in Queen Sirikit's Royal Guard Infantry Regiment.  [BP: So it is up to Anupong, Prayuth, and Kanit for there to be a coup]

The widely respected Queen lent the PAD's movement a symbolic boost in October when she presided over the funeral of one of its supporters who had been killed in a melee with Thai police. The PAD has also symbolically erected a massive portrait of Queen Sirikit at its main protest site at Government House, to which they have laid siege since August 26. The royal family is by Thai law above politics, but is known to have strong sway over the armed forces. 

...

Meanwhile, the PAD, whose popularity has waned since October, according to recent opinion polls, said in a prepared statement for the international press: "The final rally is well into its 50th hour and the supporters of the PAD have been pressuring the traitorous government to step down with peaceful means ... The [PAD] is left with no choice but to step up its peaceful rally by blocking off access to the Suvarnabhumi airport." The statement said the airport blockage was "crucial" to bringing down the government. 

Until the PAD's brinksmanship, many thought Somchai and his PPP-led government would be brought down less dramatically through the courts in a sort of judicial coup. A highly anticipated Constitution Court decision on whether to dissolve the PPP and two of its junior coalition partners on electoral fraud charges should be handed down in the coming days or weeks. 

A guilty verdict, one palace insider says, would pave the way for the creation of a court-ordered "Supreme Council" to rule in the political vacuum. He says several known royalists have been approached to serve on the appointed body, which hypothetically would have powers to pass laws by decree and appoint an interim prime minister and cabinet. 

If the airport siege ends in unrestrained police or pro-government group violence against PAD violence, as many now anxiously anticipate, the military could take the initiative to restore order. Anupong hinted last month that Somchai should resign to take responsibility for the October 7 violence, in which two protesters were killed and hundreds injured in a police crackdown. 

A more vigorous police-led bloodletting, with images of the carnage broadcast far and wide, could yet provide pretense for Anupong to seize power and establish a royally endorsed government of reconciliation and unity. Such a move could be popular with a cross-section of Bangkok's protest-weary middle classes. But in the wake of recent violent events, and in light of growing divisions in Thai society, it's unlikely the military has the authority or legitimacy to accomplish either. 

BP: So quick analysis. Neither the PAD or the government are willing to give in for now. Things could change tomorrow and the coming days once details are worked out. There has been talk about things move forward. The government was never going to dissolve parliament and then hope that the PAD leave. PAD are unlikely to switch positions unless some of their backers withdraw support. While PAD don't have to worry what the rest of the population thinks of them if there is public anger over the damage they have caused, PPP could gain (PPP need to make the PAD-Democrat Party links for it to work, but there is so material that it is not that difficult).

What the elite never realised was that Thaksin would have eventually lost if no coup had been staged. The way to defeat someone is for them to lose. Unless people got sick of his policies/him - after 7 years or so in office people often get sick of the status quo and want change - they would never be happy if the opportunity to reject him was not provided to them. They couldn't force the issue, they needed for Thaksin to screw things up for themselves.  Likewise, PPP can't force the issue with the PAD. They need for people to be so annoyed and unhappy with PAD. PPP have given PAD a lot of rope to hang themselves with and that is just what they are doing. PAD almost were confident the police would stop them and there would be bloodshed. It didn't happen and PAD, to quote The Nation, became a headless chicken and got out of control. 

The question is, why would they go to such extreme measures and why now? As Crispin noted the other day, the party dissolution and interim government. The concern, and from what I hear from well-respected analysts in Thailand and abroad, is both parties believe this is a possibility. So the PAD is wishing it will happen, while PDD are afraid.  On whether PPP MPs can run, we need to look at Section 101(3) of the Constitution: 

Section 101. A person having the following qualifications has the right to be a candidate in an election of members of the House of Representatives:

...

(3) being a member of any and only one political party for a consecutive period of not less than ninety days up to the date of applying for candidacy in an election, or being a member of any and only one political party for a consecutive period of not less than thirty days up to the date of applying for candidacy in an election in the case where the general election is conducted on account of the dissolution of the House of Representatives;

BP: If there is a parliamentary dissolution, they will want to jump ship immediately and set a date so to comply - there is some interpretation needed. It seems they can't risk waiting for a party dissolution during this period as then if it is within the final 30 days, they won't qualify as MPs. But if they jump ship, what happens to the current interim government? There are a number of scenarios and PPP will want to explore them all first before going down the dissolution route.

From the FCO:

Foreign Office Minister, Bill Rammell, has commented on the current situation in Thailand urging 'all sides to this political dispute to resolve their differences peacefully and legally, respecting Thailand's democratic institutions'.

He said:

"I am deeply concerned about the worsening unrest in Bangkok over the last 48 hours. We urge all sides to this political dispute to resolve their differences peacefully and legally, respecting Thailand’s democratic institutions.

Thailand is an important destination for British tourists and investors. I sympathise with those whose travel plans have been disrupted by the closure of Bangkok’s international airport. The consular team at our embassy is offering assistance to British nationals affected, and liaising with the airlines. Travellers to Thailand should monitor the travel advice on our website and keep in touch with their airlines and tour operators"

BP: Some might say what democratic institutions they are. You do hope it is resolved peacefully and legally.

h/t to a reader

Delegation of the European Commission to Thailand has issued a press release:

The Presidency of the Council of the European Union expresses serious concerns about the further deterioration of the political situation in Thailand, in particular with the siege of the international airport of Suvarnabhumi resulting in the disruption of international air traffic and thousands of passengers being stranded or de-routed. 

The Presidency of the Council of the European Union recalls that the Government of Thailand has the responsibility to protect both Thai citizens and foreigners. It urges the Thai Authorities to restore security and guarantee public order in accordance with the Rule of Law.

The Presidency considers these developments are damaging the international image of Thailand.

While underlining that it does not intend to interfere in any way with the internal political debate, the Presidency of the Council of the European Union reaffirms its strong attachment to democracy in Thailand. It urges all parties involved to resolve the political crisis by using peaceful means in the framework of the Rule of Law. It reiterates that any anti-constitutional attempt to interfere in the democratic process would have a negative impact on EU/Thailand relations.

BP: Perhaps, this an expression on how the world understands the situation in Thailand. I received at 6:56pm (directly from the delegation's press attache), but I doubt it was issued in response to Anupong's statement.

If it can be worked out that PPP or Puea Thai can contest the election, I see a 70%  chance that there will be a dissolution. The question is the timing. What about the ASEAN meeting in Thailand in a couple of weeks? There are still questions about the process. What if the government dissolves parliament, but PAD start protesting again? What happens then? Apparently, "social sanctions" will be imposed against the PAD, what are these sanctions? There has been widespread disapproval of the siege of the airport, but that hasn't stopped the PAD.

Reuters:

 Thailand's army chief told the government on Wednesday to step down and call a snap election, and ordered the People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD) to cease their anti-government street campaign as a way out of a worsening political crisis.

The elected government and the PAD are yet to respond to the compromise plan laid out by army chief Anupong Paochinda at a news conference.

* Prime Minister Somchai Wongsawat is due to have an audience with King Bhumibol Adulyadej later on Wednesday. His administration is unlikely to take any decision before that meeting.

...

Even though Anupong appeared to be trying to be even-handed, sources within a pro-government protest group said that if Somchai quit, they would regard it as a coup and immediately launch anti-military demonstrations.

"There will be war for sure," one senior member of the Democratic Alliance Against Dictatorship told Reuters. (Reporting by Ed Cropley; Editing by Alan Raybould and Valerie Lee) 

BP:  So will it end?

BBC reports:

The head of Thailand's army has asked the government to dissolve parliament and call new elections.

Gen Anupong Paochinda also called on anti-government protesters to withdraw from Bangkok's international airport.

Members of the People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD) took over the airport on Tuesday, leaving thousands of passengers stranded.

It comes after months of PAD protests, in which they have called for the government to resign.

The BBC's Jonathan Head, in Bangkok, says the occupation of Bangkok's airport was the most dramatic move so far in the protesters' campaign to oust the government.

The protesters, who have also been occupying a government compound in the capital, claim that the government is corrupt and hostile to the monarchy.

BP: With a possible dissolution of 3 government parties within days - court appointment on Friday. This may shut out most of the MPs from PPP in contesting the election as they won't be able to move parties within the timeframe for the new election. 

Matichon has an article with quotes.

UPDATE: The Nation:

The panel expects the government to take the first move on the House dissolution, followed by the PAD to completely stop the opposition movement.

Should the government fail to heed the proposal, the bureaucracy might resort to civil disobedience to stop implementing government orders.

In case, the PAD fails to end the protests, social sanction will be imposed.

BP: I wonder how PPP will respond. A bureaucratic coup?

A reader provides a quick translation of a Danish language newspaper report (Google translate version in English available here):

B.T.s sources in Thailand tell that a group of elite troops can be on

the way to clean up the airport for protesters. Authorities have

evacuated the 3000 stranded tourists from the airport and the

remaining are leaving wednesday afternoon local time.

Danish journalist Gregers Møller from Scanmedia, Bangkok. He is

currently at the airport. Protesters have moved into the the airport

building where they blend in with the remaining passengers. The reason

could be the aircondition and clean invironment.

There has been many rumours the past days of what exactly will happen.

According to Gregers Møller it is as good as settled that elite troops

are on their way. "My source, who have talked to a high-ranking

military officer, inform me that a delegation of elite troops are on

their way from north of Bangkok to clear up the airport". It can very

well be a bloody ending, says the journalist who has lived in Bangkok

for many years

Matichon reports that Appointed Senator Lertrat Ratanawanit [Army nominee for Senate and close to Thaksin - see here] has called on the military to declare martial law. 

BP: Anupong is on TV now. More soon.

SMH reports:

"The PAD has completely taken control of Suvarnabhumi Airport so any airline that wants to take off or land must seek permission from us directly,'' said Chaiwat Sinswuwong, one of the leaders of the People's Alliance for Democracy.

"We have allowed one flight for the Hajj (Muslim pilgrimage) to take off, but not others'' he added.

Staff had been asked to leave the control tower at  the airport because of the closure, said Puttawan Noirod, a spokeswoman for Aeronautical Radio of Thailand, which controls air traffic across the country.

"First Airports of Thailand told us that the airport would be closed until midday but then they informed us that the airport will not operate the rest of the day," Puttawan told AFP.

...

At least 3000 passengers were stranded at the airport as anti-Government protesters maintain control of the building.

"I decided to shut down services after the protesters broke the door on the fourth floor of the terminal and stormed into the departure lounge. I had no alternative," airport director Saereerat Prasutanont said.

BP: ABC (Australia) also reports they have taken over the control tower.

UPDATE: Manager reports Abhisit as calling on all MPs not to make statements which cause diviseness and as everybody needs to protect democracy under the constitution.

BP: If he was criticising the government MPs he would have named them so I think you can fairly see this is an implict rebuke against Democrat MPs.

Matichon reports that a Democrat MP from Sukhothai (นายสัมพันธ์ ตั้งเบญจผล) has stated that the surrounding of Suvarnbumi is a right of and part of the strategy of the PAD to chase out PM Somchai. If they don't do that there is no way to pressure the government or the PM to resign. The government has not solved the problems of division or shown sincerity in negotiating with the PAD.

[นายสัมพันธ์ ตั้งเบญจผล ส.ส.สุโขทัย พรรคประชาธิปัตย์เปิดเผยถึงกรณีกลุ่มพันธมิตรประชาชนเพื่อประชาธิปไตย(พธม.) เข้าปิดล้อมสนามบินสุวรรณภูมิ ว่าเป็นสิทธิ์ที่ทำได้และเป็นไม้ตายของพันธมิตรฯในการขับไล่นายสมชาย วงศ์สวัสดิ์ นายกรัฐมนตรี และรัฐบาล ถ้าไม่ทำเช่นนี้ก็ไม่มีทางกดดันให้รัฐบาลหรือนายกฯลาออกได้ ที่ผ่านมารัฐบาลไม่เคยแก้ไขปัญหาความขัดแย้งหรือแสดงความจริงใจในการเจรจากับกลุ่มพันธมิตรฯ]

Another Democrat MP from Bangkok (นายถวิล ไพรสณฑ์) stated that the surrounding of the airport can be done and he doesn't see that it is excessive at all. He believes the world will understand that it is normal thing in a fight within a country which is democratic. The government has shown no sincerity on solving the country's problems. They need to take responsbility by resigning or dissolving parliament. They can't just do nothing.

[ด้านนายถวิล ไพรสณฑ์ ส.ส.กทม.พรรคประชาธิปัตย์ กล่าวว่า การปิดล้อมสนามบินสามารถทำได้ ไม่เห็นว่าจะทำเกินกว่าเหตุตรงไหน และเชื่อว่าทั่วโลกจะเข้าใจว่าเป็นเรื่องปกติในการต่อสู้ของประเทศที่เป็นประชาธิปไตย รัฐบาลไม่เคยแสดงความจริงใจแก้ไขปัญหาที่เกิดขึ้น ต้องรับผิดชอบด้วยการลาออกหรือยุบสภาเพื่อเลือกตั้งใหม่ ไม่ใช่ยังดึงดันไม่ยอมดำเนินการอะไร]

BP: Is it just surrounding? Hasn't the partly seized the airport? Abhisit was very cautious in politely disagreeing with the PAD and you can see why. There is support within the Democrats for what the PAD are doing. Anyone think the "world" will understand?

Matichon reports that Anupong has called a meeting of all government departments, ministries, and leaders of business associations, bank presidents etc for 2pm at Army HQ.

Avudh in The Nation (no editorial on the airport takeover today):

The People's Alliance for Democracy has stooped down to a nastiest move to lay siege on Suvarnabhumi Airport in order to unseat the Somchai Wongsawat government. 

Its move is definitely unpopular and inflicts untold damage to the country although the PAD finally gets the undivided attention and gains a chokehold to topple Somchai.

After PAD-led protesters took control of the airport at 9.00 pm on Wednesday's night, frantic negotiations has been inconclusive.

The government is applying strong pressure on Army chief General Anupong Paochinda to intervene and clear protesters out of the airport. It wants to invoke the security law to empower Anupong to take charge of the crowd dispersal.

The PAD also wants Anupong to intervene but for an entirely different reason. It is trying to convince him to either stage a coup or throw his support to the opposition movement.

The government and the PAD both sees Anupong as having the trump card to decide the outcome of their fight.

Immediately after returning from Peru today at about 7.00 pm, Prime Minister Somchai will hold a face-to-face meeting with Anupong.

Anupong is expected to give his final answer on whether to assist the government to restore normalcy at the airport.

At this juncture, it uncertain what Anupong's stand really is. He still has half a day to review his options.

Based on his steadfast refusal to intervene in favour of the government, it is likely that he will not step in to ensure Somchai's survival.

The People Power Party is working hard in trying to replace Anupong. But it is making no headway. There is no shortage of ambitious generals willing the serve as a government's lackey. But the crucial question is whether it is possible to succeed Anupong's leadership and redirect the Army within short notice.

This leads to a dire scenario for Somchai. He may have no choice but to step down either by resigning or calling a snap election.

If the prime minister decides to cling to office regardless of dire consequences, then it is possible that by tomorrow the Democrats will resign their House seats en masse in order to force the House dissolution.

Somchai and his People Power Party are playing a high stake game to ensure survival as Anupong is about to show his trump card which can change the face of Thai politics.

BP: If the Democrats resigned en masse, would there be automatically be an actual dissolution? As far I have read, no. They are hoping to call the government's bluff, but what is to stop the government from staying put and the result being mass by-elections. Would Somchai actually fire Anupong?

Another UPDATE: Matichon reports that Abhisit has confirmed that Somchai has agreed for Abhisit to be the mediator, but the government wants to discuss first on what format the talks/negotiations will be.

UPDATE: Please see update below - 

Matichon reports that Abhisit has called on Somchai to negotiate with the PAD.

BP: The government has said it is willing to negotiate with Abhisit as the mediator, but PAD have said they won't negotiate so why doesn't Abhisit call on PAD to negotiate? It is not as if people are not trying to talk with the PAD as The Nation reports:

"We tried to negotiate with the PAD but they won't talk to us. We know what they want," AoT chief Serirat Prasutanont said Wednesday morning.

BP: We know they now want Somchai to resign, but then what? They call it a puppet government and said they will fight until they get New Politics. What is the point of Somchai resigning? The protests stop for a week before the new PM is labelled a puppet and that he must resign to? 

UPDATE: Ok, now Matichon has just put the entirety of Abhisit's statement in a separate article and it is much more reasonable. He first states that the country is being held hostage by the two sides and that the Democrats are not involved (no mention of Somkiart and Democrat party involvement though...). He said the Democrat Party position is they condemn all violence, no matter from what side. The party also disagrees with the closing of the airport, but the problem is bigger than just the airport. He said that he is willing to be a mediator and understands from what he has read from news reports that the Acting PM is ok with this, but has had no contact from him. Then it quotes as saying "I contacted the Acting PM this morning and confirmed I am willing to act [as mediator] and I think that now we have to wait for Somchai to return to the country. He needs to negotiate with the PAD and I am ready to be involved without conditions. I asked the Acting PM to contact Somchai while he is travelling back to Thailand... and I am waiting for a response from the Acting PM... and now I have asked [my] people to speak with the PAD to see whether they will negotiate, but it is unclear"

BP: At least, he is trying to do something constructive - possible kudos if it is successful too. The government needs to be clear that it is willing to talk with the PAD - negotiations won't help.

Matichon reports that Sutin Wannabovorn, a veteran AP reporter, has announced on the PAD stage that he has quit AP and joined the PAD movement. His stated reason is that he is not happy with the news coverage

BP: Come on Sopon, join him! Most of the foreign media took a line ranging from sceptical of Thaksin to anti-Thaksin in 2006. This has changed with the coup and the upping of the ante by the PAD/New Politics policy proposal. Sutin though has been an out and out PAD supporter and is reportedly well-liked by the PAD.

btw, Sutin was the reporter who got into a war of word with Samak earlier in the year (Thai language transcript here; video here - I blogged on it at the time).

Reuters:

Australia issued new travel warnings for Thailand on Wednesday as anti-government protests continue, advising its citizens of demonstrations in the capital Bangkok and to cancel travel to other areas in the south.

"We advise you to exercise a high degree of caution because of the uncertain political situation and high threat of terrorist attack," Australia's Department of Foreign Affairs said.

Protesters stormed Bangkok's main international airport and gunfire broke out on the streets of the Thai capital on Tuesday as a campaign to oust Prime Minister Somchai Wongsawat turned violent.

Two successive Australian warnings ramped up security advice for the southern provinces of Yala, Pattani, Narathiwat and Songkhla, with the foreign ministry pointing to "terrorist attacks and bombings" in the area on an almost daily basis.

Protests in Bangkok had resulted in fatalities, the department said, while demonstrations at Suvarnabhumi International Airport and Don Muang Airport had disrupted flights.

"Several attacks, including with hand grenades and explosive devices resulting in some fatalities and a number of injuries have occurred. Further violence cannot be ruled out," the warnings said.

Matichon also quotes the Deputy Mayor of Hua Hin, who is also an advisor to the regional hotel association, who states that the seizing of Suvarnbumi airport will take the Thai tourism industry 2 years to recover. He also states it is impossible to predict the exten of the damage. There is also concern that there will be no insurance cover. Cancellations are at 50% in Hua Hin and 80% in Pattaya.

BP: Foreign newspapers reports of thousands stranded at airport and bombs and gunfire at the airport is devastating. 

It is below:

       The People’s Alliance for Democracy has been rallying continuously since May 25, 2008 for 2 main objectives;

       

       1. To prevent the rewriting of the 2007 Constitution by the proxy government of ousted premier Thaksin Shinawatra who are trying to amend the charter to whitewash the crimes committed by Thaksin and his cronies and to destroy the country’s judiciary system. The PAD also strives to prevent the proxy government from abolishing the Privy Council, a move which the PAD considers to be a direct violation of His Majesty the King’s authority [BP: Umm, is there any evidence of this?].

       

       The current Thai Parliament is also considered to be under Thaksin’s complete control. It has committed various wrongdoings and violated election laws, yet continues to claim it represents the people of Thailand. But in truth, the proxy Parliament is a sale to any highest bidding politician. The Constitution court’s imminent deliberation of a various party dissolution cases against several of the government coalition partners is proof enough of the fact that Thakin’s proxy government is not a truly ‘constitutional’ government of Thailand.

       

       2. To drive out the killer government that has shamelessly acted as a nominee for fugitive Thaksin Shinawatra. The government is clearly behind the ruthless killings of Thai citizens, manipulated state media, supports the destruction of the Thai judiciary system, exploits the country’s national budget, condones lese majeste actions, lacks any ethical standing and therefore is deemed to be an illegitimate government which is not fit to administer the Kingdom.

       

       For the above reasons the People’s Alliance for Democracy has been rallying peacefully and without arms, a right which is sanctioned by the 2007 Constitution Article 63 [BP: Note the Administrative Court has already issued a preliminary ruling stating the absolute oppposite]. Article 70 stipulates that a Thai citizen has the responsibilities to protect the 3 pillars of the country; the nation, religion and the King and the nation’s constitutional monarchy.

       

       However, during the course of the rally the lives and safety of supporters of the People’s Alliance for Democracy have been in constant jeopardy. The government is also clearly involved in masterminding various violent attacks against the PAD. It has also turned a blind eye when the PAD was attacked with weapons of war on more than 10 occasions. The ruthless attacks have resulted in countless injuries and 4 deaths. Several attacks were also targeted at the ASTV headquarters in an attempt to prevent that station from broadcasting live the PAD rally. The government has yet to take any responsibility for the underhanded sabotage attempts.

       

       Three Senate committees, tasked with investigating the violence and bloodshed of the October 7th incident, have found that the PM Somchai Wongsawat and his Cabinet ministers are to be held responsible for the injuries and deaths of the protesters. Their findings coincide with that of the National Human Rights Commission. Premier Somchai must take responsibility for the tragedy by resigning immediately and without any condition.

       

       The People’s Alliance for Democracy has called for a final mass rally to stop the traitorous government and proxy Parliament on November 23, 2008 at 2 p.m. The final rally is well into its 50th hour and the supporters of the PAD have been pressuring the traitorous government to step down with peaceful means. Armed with only the plastic hand clappers, the PAD protesters have marched to various key locations including Parliament, Finance ministry, the Metropolitan Police Bureau and the government’s temporary seat at Don Muang Airport. However, to no avail, the proxy government has failed to show any sign of remorse or any intention to step down as demanded by the PAD. In addition, it continues to cling on to power and is determined to amend the charter for the interests of its puppet master and his associates.

       

       The People’s Alliance for Democracy is left with no choice but to step up its peaceful rally by blocking off access to the Suvarnabhumi Airport. This is considered to be an ultimatum for Somchai Wongsawat and the Cabinet to resign immediately and without any condition.

       

       The people’s alliance apologizes for any inconvenience the closure of the Suvarnabhumi Airport may cause to the public and international visitors to the Kingdom of Thailand. But the PAD believes the measure is crucial to bring an end to the traitorous-killer government.

       

       The PAD is calling for the public from all walks of life to join the PAD movement and call for the current administration to resign immediately to protect Thailand from more harm and to restore morals to the Thai society without any further delay.

       

       With deepest respect, People’s Alliance for Democracy Tuesday, November 25, 2008

BP: Comment away.

The first incident was near Government House around 2 a.m. although there are no reports of any injuries.

The second incident was at Vibhavadi Rangsit Soi 3, the location of a community radio station for taxi drivers which is pro-Thaksin. The Nation reports that 2 men were injured from bomb shrapnel and also reports eyewitnesses saying shots were fired at them. Matichon reports that the sound of two shots. It has a statement from a taxi driver who states that they were fired upon and three people were injured. All 5 injured have been taken to hospital. 

The third incident was at the same time, 4:30am there was the sound of thre explosions on the fourth floor of Suvarnbumi on the outside of the passenger terminal although there are no reports on any injuries - there are later reports of other incidents at Suvarnbumi and the injuries seem to be from these.

The fourth incident was of a grenade attack, believed to be an M-79, at Suvarnbumi at 6 a.m. Three people were injured.

The fifth incident was at Don Muang, at the site of the temporary government HQ, at 6:30 am were there was the sound of an explosion. Two people have been taken to hospital. Matichon reports that the police have been unable to investigate as the PAD won't let them.

Matichon also reports a PAD spokesman as saying that so far the PAD have only used guns in self-defence. The PAD have been patient for a long time while suffering attacks from the government. If there are any more attacks, those who will be injured will be on the other side.

Matichon also reports one of the PAD leaders (Somkiart, the Democrat MP) has got on the stage at Suvarnbumi and stated that the seizing of Suvarnbmui is the third stage/level in the operations and code named Hiroshima. Tomorrow, it will be the final one, Nagasaki. 

BP:  PAD call their operations by the locations of atomic bomb attacks during WWII - what kind of message are they trying to send out. The seizing of the airport and the various other government offices at various times is not some rogue black ops within the PAD, it is led by the PAD leaders. It appears we are in a state of nature now with no law and order. The police appear unwilling to do anything so do the military. The question is, what is the breaking point? For me, it has passed now. The question is, if the government uses force whether it be water canons and then tear gas, how will PAD respond? Will people be able to tolerate the inevitable deathtoll? 

btw, how will PAD respond to the sinking of a Thai shop by the Indian military? 

Via e-mail:

Book Launch

Chang Noi’s Jungle Book

Thailand’s Politics, Moral Panic, and Plunder, 1996–2008

Wednesday, November 26, at 8:00 pm

with buffet dinner at 7:00 pm

Chang Noi first padded onto The Nation’s editorial pages in April 1996 and has since produced close to four hundred articles. This selection of sixty-four is a reflection on a dozen extraordinary years. The coup leader who believed he was the reincarnation of an eighteenth-century king. The godfather slashed to death by a machete on the orders of his son. The party boss who taught his followers how to negotiate corruption with hand signals. The general whose political career charts the destruction of Burmese forests. Plus the crisis over naked nipples, fascination with rape in TV dramas, moral panic over teenage clothing, police involvement in casinos, wrangles over damned dams, varieties of corruption, fantasies of culture bureaucrats, and fifty years of scandal behind Bangkok’s new airport.Some columns have provoked Thailand’s richest and most powerful figures to threaten lawsuits.

Chang Noi will be on hand to talk on the current crisis in long-term perspective. The book will be available at a generously discounted price.

----------

Members: No cover charge, buffet dinner is 350 baht

Non-members: 300 baht cover charge without buffet dinner or 650 baht for buffet dinner including cover charge

BP: Be there or be square.

... not about PAD shutting down the airport, but as Thai Rath reports he spoke out about the UDD rally being held at a temple and this is bringing politics into the temple.

BP: Last December during the election campaign, Abhisit went to a temple to publicly discuss morality and politics and to be grilled by the abbot on his views. It was the same temple and the same monk.

btw, the abbot has said he will allow anyone to speak there, but will watch that rhetoric so it doesn't get out of hand.

Just before PAD leader Suriyasai was interviewed on Thai ThaiPBS where he said that PAD will keep the airport closed until Somchai resigns. If he does then PAD will stop. When asked what stopping means, he said it might be a complete stop of protests or only partial.

He says that PAD will try not to cause damage to the airport or at least the least amount of damage.

When told that Somchai has refused to resign and if the airport is closed how it affects foreigners and tourism, what is his view? He answers that the government is the problem. It has lost legitimacy. Suriyasai denies they have weapons.

BP: Samak must go, PAD chanted. He goes. Now, Somchai must go. And the next PM? To believe that the PAD will just stop seems naive.

A senior Thai Airways official (some senior air force guy) was then interviewed and stated that all Thai Airways flights tonight have been cancelled for now. They are considering the use of other airports (Utapao - military airport near Pattaya - was mentioned).

BP: You can see pictures at the airport of the PAD guards wearing black and some yellow armbands with their faces covered and tourists looking on with bewilderment. 

Thai Airways call center is 02-356-1111 (this is their central number from memory and not a specialized emergency number).

I heard the Acting PM (Chavarat Charnvirakul) on TV say the same thing, (see UPDATE below) but Bloomberg has the government spokesman:

Thailand’s government called on the military to help restore order at Bangkok’s international airport after demonstrators stormed into the main terminal.

“We are using non-violent measures but we may further step up our actions later,” government spokesman Nattawut Saikuar said today in a telephone interview from Bangkok.

Bangkok’s Suvarnabhumi airport was closed due to protests. The international airport canceled all departing flights after demonstrators surged into the terminal, the Associated Press reported.

BP: Has the breaking point been reached?

UPDATE: AFP has the what Chavarat said on TV:

Thailand's deputy premier said the government was ready to ask the military for help after protesters stormed the nation's main airport Tuesday, but vowed that authorities would not use force.

Chavarat Charnvirakul, who is in charge of the country during Prime Minister Somchai Wongsawat's absence for an APEC summit that took place in Peru, called for calm as six-month-long anti-government protests escalated.

"I have asked the army chief and police chief to help take care of the situation," he said on the government-run NBT television station.

"We will not clash. We will try to talk," he added. "The government will try to maintain security and get things back to normal as soon as possible. We would like people to be patient, so that the situation does not get worse."

BP: It is part of a strategic move to isolate the PAD as well.

AFP:

 "Five supporters of the government have been wounded from gun shots by PAD (People's Alliance for Democracy) who were on a pickup truck," a senior Metropolitan police officer told AFP on condition of anonymity.

Television footage showed at least one man in a pickup truck opening fire on an unarmed group, before men in yellow shirts got out and beat them with white poles, as fires burned in the background.

...

About 1,000 demonstrators later moved to the new Suvarnabhumi international airport in a bid to block Somchai's return from a trip abroad, airport authorities told AFP.

...

Government-run corporations said there was no response to a strike call by Thailand's main public sector union.

BP: As a poetic commentator in a post of mine earlier today noted that everytime the state enterprise unions announce a nationwide strike, the union members ignore them.

IHT:

Antigovernment protesters all but blocked the highway to Bangkok's main new international airport on Tuesday and fired handguns and beat government supporters with metal rods in fierce clashes elsewhere in the city, injuring at least six people, according to video footage shown on Thai television.

...

"How is it going to end?" said Bharavee Boonsongsap, a 34-year-old producer for MTV Thailand. "I keep asking people but they have no answer."

"Thais are fighting Thais," she said. "People have become aggressive and even children have been taught to hate the opposite side."

Ploykwan Suttharom, a 27-year-old graphic designer, says she worries about wearing red or yellow clothing - the colors of the two opposing camps - for fear of telegraphing loyalty to one group or the other. She and others say they have grown tired of the coarse language that the alliance uses in their anti-government chants.

Protesters call the government the "beast from hell" and refer to leading politicians as "monitor lizards," one of the gravest Thai insults.

BP: I am glad to see mention of the demonising vitroil. At New Mandala, Srithanonchai in a comment noted some of the PAD rhetoric

Let’s see how the renewed “Thai democracy” will look like after the PAD’s attempt this Sunday to bring down not only the “puppet government of tyrants” but also the “Thaksin-system slave assembly” (aka the “democratically elected House of Representatives”).

BBC:

Earlier, Thai TPBS television broadcast pictures of the violence on the main road to the capital's old airport. The footage showed shots being fired from a truck into crowds after rocks were thrown.

At least two handguns could be seen and people standing with the gunmen raised up a picture of the revered Thai king [BP: So you hold the picture of the King and then shoot?] whom the PAD claim to be supporting.

Protesters could be seen running across the empty multi-lane road and setting fire to a motorbike.

A man was also seized by pro-government supporters and what appeared to be a large knife was held to his throat. [BP: That photo is here it appears that they are anti-government/PAD supporters as the guy looks like a motorcycle taxi driver which AP also reports]

TPBS said its cameraman had been threatened at the scene and that PAD personnel attempted to seize his tape.

On Monday, PAD protesters converged on Bangkok's old Don Muang international airport, from where the cabinet has been operating since its offices were occupied three months ago.

Organisers say the protest is a "final battle" to bring down the government.

Our correspondent says the government appears to have followed a strategy of allowing PAD to attack government buildings while avoiding clashes, in the hope that it will wear the protesters down.

The government has so far resisted calling in the army. Analysts says it is a thinly disguised aim of the PAD to provoke such a move.

The PAD are determined to create drama but many ordinary Thais are sick of the unrest and the protesters appear to be losing steam, says our correspondent. 

Reuters:

Channel 3 television said PAD protesters also obstructed all but one lane of the multi-lane expressway to the new Suvarnabhumi airport, the main gateway for 13 million tourists who visit each year.

Some analysts say the PAD's powerful backers in the Bangkok establishment are getting cold feet about the damage the political strife is inflicting on the economy.

"The people who've been backing PAD in the background have got frightened that it's getting out of control. It's a threat to public order and even the structure of the state itself," historian and political analyst Chris Baker said. [BP: Matichon reports on what the foreign media are saying and they have Baker's quote]

BP: It is like a political candidate in the US primaries. While there is still a hope the money if lowing in, but if you don't finish in the top three in Iowa and New Hampshire your problems are compounded as your fund-raising will quickly dry up.

Time notes the "final showdown" rhetoric is becoming old. Hmm, didn't I blog on that months ago?

Finally, the airport shutdown is more complete as Petty writes in Reuters:

Hundreds of protesters stormed Bangkok's Suvarnabhumi international airport terminal on Tuesday night after scuffling with riot police, a Reuters reporter on the scene said.

Members of the People's Alliance for Democracy members through police lines and began roaming through the sprawling $4 billion terminal as startled tourists looked on.

BP: Not a good look.

Also Al Jazeera:

Norm Hermant, a journalist in Bangkok, told Al Jazeera: "The PAD protestors ... have not been able to create enough pressure to force the government to resign or force the army to step in. Meanwhile their numbers have been continually declining.

"So they have been trying to push for what they call this final showdown.

"But numbers yesterday showed that it wasn't a final showdown. They didn't get anyway near the one hundred thousand people they were promoting that they would get."

BP: There is little good news for the PAD (ok, The Manager is still reporting good news for the PAD).

The Guardian has video from ThaiPBS. Key excerpt:

Thai protesters opened fire on government supporters today as the six-month campaign to unseat the elected administration intensified.

The fighting began when government supporters began throwing rocks at a truck carrying members of the People's Alliance for Democracy (Pad) on its return from Bangkok's old airport where the group had been holding a rally.

Television footage from the public broadcaster TPBS showed Pad protesters responding with handguns and slingshots.

The anti-government protesters had already formed a blockade on the road leading to Don Muang airport, north of the city, where ministers have been running the country since Pad members invaded Government House in August.

The protesters on the truck appeared to be among the so-called alliance guards, who have earned a reputation for aggressive behaviour.

They hoisted a portrait of King Bhumibol Adulyadej, Thailand's revered monarch, whose interests they claim to be working for.

The Narenthorn medical centre said four people were admitted after the clash.

Other television footage showed anti-government supporters surrounding a motorcycle taxi driver and putting a knife to his throat. After the driver fled, the protesters hit several motorbikes with steel rods and set fire to another one.

Government supporters, distinguished by their red shirts from the anti-government demonstrators' yellow, were seen fleeing from Pad members.

During the brief skirmish, neither police nor other security forces intervened.

The second day of protests saw demonstrators blocking all but one lane on the expressway to Thailand's main international airport, Suvarnabhumi, used by 13 million tourists every year.

The prime minister, Somchai Wongsawat, has rejected Pad demands to stand down.

Activists accuse him of being a puppet of his brother-in-law and former Thai prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra, who was accused of corruption and abuse of power and deposed in a military coup in September 2006. Thaksin is due to return from an Asia-Pacific summit in Peru tomorrow. [BP: As lsj notes a freudian slip]

"It is time to make a clear-cut choice between good and evil, between those who are loyal and traitors," Pad leader Somsak Kosaisuk told 10,000 yellow-shirted supporters waving hand clappers and shouting anti-government slogans.

Members of Pad, which consists of royalist businessmen and academics, see this week's action as the final battle in their attempt to overthrow the elected government.

But analysts believe the latest protests are unlikely to deliver a knock-out blow to the People Power Party (PPP) government. Opinion polls show waning public support for Pad.

Experts think many of the group's powerful backers in Bangkok are getting cold feet about the damage the long-running political crisis is having on the economy. The export-driven country is already struggling to cope with the global financial crisis.

Despite his ties to Thaksin, Somchai's bland, inoffensive personality has proved a hard target for Pad.

BP: You can see it in this video, but the PAD guards/supporters surround the TPBS cameraman and have long knives. This video is everywhere on all the Thai TV channels and the newspaper sites.

The Permanent Secretary of Defence is quoted in Matichon as stating:

"I want the PAD to stop pressuring Army C-in-C [Gen. Anupong] as it is not right because it will cause the country to fall even further. I want to ask them not to pressure the Army C-in-C because it is of no use and it will not cause anything good to happen. What the PAD say that we don't do anything, but what the military are doing is even bigger/more important than what they ask for because it is staying patient. Therefore, don't ask us to do something that we think it is not the goal of the country"

BP: Sondhi L's personal bodyguard has been arrested and his vehicle had a number of guns in it including an uzi. He denies knowledge.  He has been charged with a number of offences.

The Nation:

The Suvarnabhumi Airport has been ordered closed after PAD protesters seized key entrance and other areas.

The Airports of Thailand has decided to close the Suvarnabhumi airport after PAD protesters entered passenger terminals.

Now, there will not be out-bound flights. In-bound planes are being allowed to land for now, but can be diverted to key provincial airports if situations deteriorated.

The order was issued by AOT chief Serirat Prasutanont. He made the decision after PAD protesters penetrated some passenger areas.

The People's Alliance for Democracy threatened earlier Tuesday night to close down the Suvanabhumi Airport completely after several thousand PAD protesteers blocked an entrance earlier in the day and caused turmoil for numerous passengers.

As PAD protesters moved to surround Suvarnabhumi Airport where the plane carrying Prime Minister Somchai Wongsawat was scheduled to land, the arrival of his plane from Peru was reportedly delayed due to technical problems.

The estimated time of arrival has not been confirmed. Some sources said he could be arriving Wednesday evening.

"We have tried to pressure the govฌernment for more than 50 hours but nothing has happened, so we need to step up our campaign by closing the airport to tell the world problems Thailand is facing," said PAD leader Sondhi Limthongkul at Government House Tuesday night.

Before the closure order, the Airports of Thailand was Tuesday night mobilizing its officials to Suvarnabhumi to make sure no key operations will be disrupted. Travellers still can access the terminals through Bang Na -Trad highway, but the motory-way entrance has been crowded with protesters.

Many travellers have already suffered inconvenience. AOT has also issued a statement pleading with the PAD.

BP: I heard the head of the airport on Thai TV saying they tried to speak to the PAD, but have received no response.

PAD head to the airport to block the arrival of Somchai's plane, but there is news that his plane has been "delayed" because of technical problems - I wonder if this confuse protesters on when he will arrive back into the country.

A reader sends a message by e-mail that the UN is advising its staff to postpone travel as the PAD have cut off the road to the airport. 

This will do wonders for terrorism tourism,* but I imagine the government's position is that the little pain will just cause people to dislike the PAD more so leaving them be is the best option.

*actually, I was thinking of pointing out what PAD were doing and then looking at what the definition of a terrorist act is. It fits now.

Kraisak quoted in DPA:

But the government’s tactic of avoiding the movement, and the military’s reluctance to stage a coup, may have undermined the PAD’s strategy, political observers said.

‘The only solution they have is some sort of a coup, but the only time there is a coup in Thailand is when the army commander in chief feels threatened with dismissal,’ said Kraisak Choonhavan, a member of the opposition Democrat Party, whose father, former primer Chatchai, was toppled by a coup in 1991.

‘This government has been smart at keeping the military happy,’ he added.

BP: I agree. There is plenty of academic research on civil-military relations which points to factional and military corporate interests being reasons to stage a coup - short of him flying to Dubai and personally killing Thaksin, I can't think of any possiblity in which PPP would get rid of Gen. Anupong. PPP are also keeping the money flowing to the military - personally, I am concerned about this and the large increase in the military budget will be wasted, but it is a direct consequence of the 2006 coup and military purchases arranged during the Surayud government that there is not much than can be done now.

Anupong today:

National army chief Anupong Paojinda, who chairs the committee for monitoring political developments, said on Tuesday that the army has prepared plans and security forces to handle groups of anti-government protesters occupying different areas.

According to Gen Anupong, security forces from the army, air force, navy and police will be divided into two groups. The first group will watch over the protesting groups in different locations while the second group will prevent groups with different political views from clashing each other.

The army chief said the police will facilitate the motorists, should the demonstrators block the traffic lanes. The police will exercise utmost restraint and try to compromise with the protesters who try to provoke violence, instead of using forceful measures, he affirmed.

After meeting with the Permanent Secretary for Defence, the Supreme Commander, and army commanders on Tuesday morning, Gen Anupong said the meeting resolved to stick to three principles, which are protecting the main institution of the country and maintaining social order, preventing clashes that could lead to losses, and adhering to the legal system to work out the national crisis.

He said other alternatives such as staging a coup would not solve problems in the country.

BP: The only possibilities of a coup is if the police start shooting at protesters and a large number die or the PAD do the same - even though we are more likely to get a state of emergency and/or martial law than a coup. Without one of those events happening, I put the chance of a coup at 5%.

Nick has another guest post at New Mandala with photos from yesterday's PAD rally and compares that with the recent DAAD/UDD rally. Some key excerpts:

Another very serious incident was the arrest of 5 PAD guards that had hijacked a public bus, and were armed with one illegal shotgun, a ping-pong bomb, several machetes, bullet proof vests, and other assorted weaponry. These guards were clearly still active guards - they had guard IDs, and several mid-ranking PAD leaders, not very happy about the incident, appeared at Nang Loeng police station where the guards were detained.

BP: Thaienews has some screenshots of the 5 (or is it 6?) guards. Other buses were taken the same day and previously so were they just unhappy that they were caught?

Then:

So far the PAD as a group has failed to distance itself clearly from their more violent elements. Many ordinary PAD supporters are not aware of the arming of some of the guards, and follow the claims of their leadership that any shooting incident that happens is to blamed on the “third hand”. Others are appalled by the martial behavior of some of these guards. Most, I am sure, are not aware of how many arms there actually are around.

A movement that defines itself as “non-violent” cannot afford to have violent incidents. Two shootings in recent weeks can be attributed to PAD guards - one person was killed about one hour after a grenade was launched at PAD guards 30 October. The second victim, injured in the shoulder, on 2 November, was the driver of a car with 5 young people who had a night out in Banglampoo and took the wrong turn on their way home. They ended up at PAD barricades and were shot at by a PAD guard. Several bullets were fired at their car. Police were not allowed to investigate the crime scene during the night of the incident, but I have interviewed the victims, and there was more than sufficient evidence to support their story.

BP: Where are the rest of the Thai media? I can't even find one story from The Nation today on  the seized bus - looked through national and political as well as in google news (did the paper edition mention the incident). Does not the armed takeover of a bus by a political group warrant attention?

The Bangkok Post:

Italian ambassador Ignazio Di Pace said the stand-off has to be stopped as it was bad for everyone.

"If you want to confront the government, you must have a political strategy. You should come up with a concrete proposal and start dialogue on your proposal, not just lay siege to parliament and Government House and government agencies like this," said Mr Di Pace.

The PAD's objectives might have been good from the very beginning - they want to fight against graft in government - but the methods they have used are not right, the Italian envoy said.

"It's a bit soothing that the red and the yellow shirts are not yet fighting and the government has shown restraint and avoided a confrontation. This is a correct move, but not conducive as a state must have bodies to function," he said.

BP: So is a siege of the Italian Embassy on the agenda? He points out the problem of the PAD and that is the lack of a "concrete proposal". Their new politics agenda works well - kind of like the change meme - while it is undefined on what exactly will constitute new politics. It is hard to demand the government implement new politics when you yourselves can't even define what it means. 

The Bangkok Post:

Bangkok Mass Transit Authority director Pinet Puapatanakul said the city bus agency was negotiating with the PAD for the return of four passenger buses seized by PAD supporters yesterday. They had planned to use them as part of the blockade of parliament.

He wanted the PAD to return the buses they had taken because passengers relied on the service.

BP: Police managed to get one bus back yesterday by shooting out the tyres. 

The Nation reports on how PAD supporters think they deserve more than others:

Several vehicles of the People's Alliance for Democracy caused traffic snarls in front of the Yommaraj gate of the expressway after the protesters refused to pay toll for using the expressway.

By 5 am, the protesters failed to negotiate the expressway officials to allow them to pass the tollgate without paying

BP: How dare they charge us! You can just see the sense of entitlement.

UPDATE

The Bangkok Post:

The regular cabinet meeting, normally held on a Tuesday, has been deferred until tomorrow so the prime minister can attend.

A government source said the venue for the cabinet meeting would likely be shifted to the Supreme Command headquarters to avoid the gathering PAD blockade.

Another cabinet source said Mr Chavarat, Newin Chidchob and national police chief Pol Gen Patcharawat Wongsuwan were among those who met at a hotel yesterday after the huge PAD rally and agreed not to use force against the demonstrators.

BP: He has been absent recently so his return is interesting, but it does come at a time where there is little talk of dissension in the PPP ranks. They are more focused on PAD now so seem to have put the internal bickering behind. 

btw, interesting they use a military base, would the PAD dare to seize that?  

UPDATE: OP comments:

Newin has to be one of the current great political players. Yeah I know of his reputation and his links to certain things but he plays a politcal hand better than most. He could out Banharn Banharn. 

BP: Some of the government's strategic failures can probably be partly attributed to Newin's lack of involvement. Now that is seems that Newin has "come in from the cold", PPP might develop better responses to the PAD protests.

UPDATE: See below

The Nation:

 The yellow-shirt protesters began to lay siege at different locations early yesterday morning by marching from the Government House to Parliament, the Metropolitan Police Command Centre, the Finance Ministry and the Chat Thai Party's office.

The number of the protesters was estimated at between 20,000 to 30,000, fewer than the previous major gatherings.

BP: Absolutely Bangkok made a very astutue point yesterday that to achieve these numbers PAD had to bring in supporters from the South on buses as the PAD are unable to find enough Bangkokians anymore. PAD need a boost from somewhere to carry on their current "fight".

UPDATE: The always poetic W Hsu in a comment:

The PAD is looking more isolated every day -- the scary part is that the more they fade, the more intense and deluded the remaining faithful become. It's like a big radical church that throws public picnics in its heyday, but as its membership dwindles because people leave it for more moderate parishes, the few left become a cult, walling themselves off from all outside voices and abandoning their lives to the specific battlegrounds the church has chosen as its Armageddon. 

The remaining PAD members are more than just willing to die; I think many of them are actively hoping for martyrdom. Like lifelong gamblers they've been warped by the gravity of their own investment. To walk away now is to not just admit defeat, but admit that they wasted a year of their lives. 

BP: That term cult is looking apt. I don't think UDD have been going long enough and so far are much further behind.

Thanong says the protesters have blundered:

The anti-government protesters, at this hour, appear to be facing a setback in their attempt to seize the capital. They might be able to lay siege to Parliament and block the session. But it is a futile exercise as the police forces are keeping their cool.

What is going to happen next?

The anti-government protesters could be making the same mistake as Napoleon, who decided to invade Russia and suffered a devastating defeat. Napoleon's armies could seize the territories, but they could not occupy them for long.

If the situation continues, the protesters could run out of steam.

BP: The government didn't blink as another article in The Nation.  PAD's plan all along has been to incite a reaction by the police. They got "lucky" on October 7 with the faulty Chinese teargas, but are not in a bind so will they retreat or go even further? It is the later of course. Matichon reports the PAD are threatening to close down Suvarnbumi to prevent PM Somchai returning to the country from the APEC meeting in Peru.

Andrew predicts that the PAD movement will fizzle out. I agree generally, but PAD have the option of a retreat and basically double down on their position. They appear to be choosing the double down approach, but this is not done from a position of strength but weakness. Hence, because they don't have too many chips left, they are going "all in". This could be a long hand as they longer they continue along this route then the worse it gets.

The Nation:

The caretaker primer minister, opposition leader, House speaker and Senate speaker agreed Monday to convene a special Cabinet meeting on December 8 and 9 to endorse the legal framework concerning Asean.

The meeting was held Monday afternoon after the People's Alliance for Democracy blocked the joint sitting of the House and Senate for fear that the government would slam a charter amendment bill through Parliament.

Opposition leader Abhisit Vejjajiva, House Speaker Chai Chidchob and Senate Speaker Prasopsook Boondej held a meeting with Deputy Prime Minister Chaovarat Chanweerakul, caretaker prime minister, and agreed upon the special session.

BP: Kudos to all four working together.

btw, at the same time the Democrat spokesman criticized the government for the delay in bringing the treaties to parliament although not criticism of the PAD for preventing parliament from meeting.

Avudh in The Nation:

A rethink has become an imperative to put an end to the political turmoil. The struggle between the government and the People's Alliance for Democracy has proved to be a never-ending saga that is futile and a drain on society.If the PAD wants to topple the government, then it is evident that the rousing of the crowds has led to nowhere. A much-anticipated uprising remains the elusive goal after six months plagued by a number of bloodshed incidents.

If the government is sincere about forging reconciliation, then it should start acting in a tangible manner to co-exist with the PAD instead of trying to quash its civil disobedience.

BP: Lots of quashing today while PAD have partly taken over parts of Don Muang (this is of course the temporary replacement for Government House which the PAD had earlier takenn over), cut power lines, assault the police, and block the people's representatives from entering parliament.

Article continues:

The PAD cannot bring the government to its knees and its continuing protests are like howling winds falling short of developing into storms. The government, in turn, is at its wits' end on how to pacify the PAD-led crowds.

The government and the PAD both should look to the elections as the contest grounds to fight one another instead of perpetuating the turmoil.

Even though the PAD claims to have no aspirations for political office, it is entitled to endorse electoral candidates to bring about the political changes as deemed necessary. The government can seek a fresh mandate instead of being a lame duck.

A snap election will allow rival camps to redirect their fight in a more constructive manner to vie for votes rather than being mired by animosity.

Should the two opposing sides decide to designate the elections as their new battlefield, a clean break from fractious politics is deemed necessary to pave the way for a free and fair outcome.
...

Yesterday's turnout for the PAD-led "final battle" was lower than expected. The siege on Parliament achieved nothing and the marches to various agencies, including the temporary seat of government at Don Mueang, appeared lacklustre.

For participatory democracy to flourish, it is imperative for the PAD to advocate issues with immediacy and relevancy. If the PAD refuses to adjust its tactics and advocacy topics, it is risking a sharp turn of sentiment. The people are beginning to see the PAD as troublemaker instead of a champion to clean up politics.

BP: Last December there were elections, PPP won. PAD didn't like it and started protesting in May, 3 months after the government was in office. PAD don't accept the current the electoral system. Is there any evidence that PAD would accept the new result when they inevitably lose? No, there isn't. Hence, what is the point? If there is a new election, PAD could lay siege to the Election Commission and prevent the certification of the vote.  They would want to delay any result so to force us to have a judicial government.

The Nation:

Female protesters assaulted a deputy commander of the Metropolitan Police Division 4 at the Don Muang Airport Monday evening.

The protesters booed Pol Col Phatchara Boonyaprasit while he walking from the canteen at the airport at 5:15 pm. Several spat at him and many threw water bottles at him.

At one moment, he was pushed until he fell over and the back of his head hit a barricade.

After he fell down, several protesters kicked him and threw water bottles at him again until other policemen came to rescue him and took him away.

BP: So which protesters? Can't we even mention that it was PAD protesters? I wonder if The Nation will be making a big deal out of this as they did when Kraisak was assaulted? (see my blog post of the incident here). Matichon has the PAD explanation from one of the leaders is that they were aware of some politicians in a lift and when it was open there was a police officer and he said some inappropriate things so the situation was not under control - I should note Matichon reports it differently with him being called a murderer so he hastily tried to escape and raised his hands to plead with the PAD protesters before someone came running at him to kick him and once he was on the floor, a group of protesters came to kick him (it should be noted that some PAD guards tried to protect him at one point).

Meanwhile, we have armed people who "look like PAD guards" seizing government buses - Reuters tells you the story more directly. It seem they were to transport people to various venues as the Post reports:

A number of public buses belonging to the Bangkok Mass Transit Authority (BMTA) had been seized by the People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD) to aid the group in moving protesters between rally points in the capital.

BMTA Director Pinate Puapatanakul said buses running in route numbers 3, 53, 56 and 515 were seized. Policemen were able to facilitate the return of a route 53 bus so far.

Police from Nanglerng station apprehended six PAD guards close to the Royal Thai Survey Department road intersection after the latter seized the bus. The bus's fare collector said the guards had stepped on board and told the driver to stop the bus, before chasing out all the passengers and taking the vehicle's control. Police intercepted the bus, firing into and bursting the front tires to immobilise it. The six men were found with improvised firearms, ammunition and metal rods.

The BMTA had ordered changes in bus routing on several routes to avoid the PAD's rally points. BMTA executives told its traffic planning division to monitor the rally around the clock so changes to bus routing and response to any other problems could be made swiftly.

BP: Although, once they are caught, they will of course no longer be PAD guards (no doubt if they were somewhat injured they would suddenly regain their PAD guard status and be martyrs for the cause).

btw, see this picture from The Nation although the caption only reads "Anti-government protesters board a bus on their way to temporary government seat at Don Muang Airport". Given the other buses seized by PAD guard, it is astonishing the leeway given to the PAD. If it was UDD supporters it would be "Poor, uneducated, violent, and armed thugs from the UDD seize a bus and terrorise the passengers". 

Arabian Business has a teaser of an interview they have with Thaksin which will be available from Thursday:

"England must understand better, but unfortunately they are now busy with their own problems - so they forgot about democratic values," Shinawatra said during an interview in Dubai. 

Shinawatra vowed to return to Thailand at some stage, stating that he could bring confidence back to the country.

"The country is going down deeply. The confidence is not there. The trust amongst foreign community is not there. The poor people in rural areas are in difficulty," he said.

"With me at the helm I can bring confidence quickly back to Thailand. We have to find a mechanism under which I can go back, that is why I must tell you that I will go back into politics."

However, Shinawatra said he would only return if the people and the king of Thailand wanted him to go back.

"I think a lot depends on the power of the people. If they feel they are in hardship and they need me to help them, I will go back," he said.

"If the king feels I can be beneficial I will go back and he may grant me a royal pardon. If they don’t need me and the king feels I can make no difference then I will stay here and do business."

BP: He also talks on how the UK will "feel sorrow" for the visa revocation - does he mean sad? I have news for him, he is too divisive to become PM again, but then again I think he already knows that and it is just part of his rhetorical war to achieve a compromise. The same goes with the last paragraph where I am sure there will be PAD "anger" over what he said.

h/t and for a Thai language translation see Matichon.

The Bangkok Post has an editorial calling on both sides to cease their rallies. Key excerpt:

The nation's business is not being done. The PAD - perhaps rightly - has forced the courts to rule that the government must submit all foreign pacts and policy to parliament for approval. Then, the PAD has besieged parliament, preventing such public debate.

Thailand, the chairman of Asean, will go to its own summit in Chiang Mai next week as the only member not to have approved vital Asean agreements on peace, trade and cross-border security. Protest is patriotic, but lowering the prestige of the country is to humiliate Thailand in the world's eyes. On one hand, the PAD denies the legitimacy of the government as a Thaksin puppet. On the other it denies the people's business.

BP: If UDD stop, will the PAD stop?

UPDATE: Maew and Absolutely Bangkok also have commentary.

The Nation:

The protesters led by the People's Alliance for Democracy set up a stage in front of the entrance to Metropolitan Police and cut off power supply to the compound.

Veera Somkwamkid, a protest leader, said the PAD would seize the metropolitan police head office because it was used as a base for launching bomb attacks against the protesters at the Government House.

In other news, no parliamentary meeting today. Anupong and House Speaker Chai will hold a press conference at the temporary Government House of Don Muang. Matichon reports that a Democrat MP who was inside parliament was allowed to leave by PAD, but government officials (and of course government MPs) are still stuck inside - PAD have blocked off all 4 entrances and cut off power. Matichon also reports government spokesman Nattawut as saying that the Deputy Police Chief has been assigned to negotiate with the PAD so they will stop blocking parliament.

BP: Going through the motions of negotiations...

UPDATE: From the pro-PAD TOC:

The hundreds of thousands of PAD protesters have been successful in laying seige to Parliament, closing off all entrances and exits to the compound and taking control of all roads around the site.

BP: The Bangkok Post reports 5,000. Why not just hundreds of millions. If one is inflate one's numbers, why not go all the way?

NOTE: PAD protesters are gathered at a number of different points around the city, from parliament, Government House area, Don Muang, Ministry of Finance so this doesn't mean there were only 5,000 people in total, but with protesters dispersed throughout the city the numbers in any one place are are not tens of thousands let alone hundreds of thousands.

h/t AB (who is updating hourly)

AP:

The protest alliance also says it is committed to nonviolence, though forays outside its stronghold are usually led by tough young men, who carry homemade weapons such as iron rods — and in some cases handguns — and who have won a reputation for aggressive behavior.

...

Protest leaders were calling for Sunday's rally to be their biggest ever, but the number that turned out appeared to be at most just one-quarter to one-third the 100,000 supporters protest spokesman Parnthep Wongpuapan said had been expected.

BP: Not really strength in numbers for the PAD so far.

Updates will not be frequent, but will have a roundup at the end of the day. For some background stories see AP and Reuters.

First, PAD have completely surrounded Parliament blocking off all entrances and they have cut off electricity as well. PAD have promised that they will not allow any parliamentary meeting to be held at the venue. Matichon reports talk of moving the parliamentary meeting elsewhere - an announcement is pending. There are rumours the PAD might go to other venues:

The protesters were told to bring the masks in case the police use tear gas to disperse them."People who stay at Government House, don't worry, we have mechanisms, we will not be dispersed," he said. 

The speakers on stage did not reveal their supporters' destinations, but rumours circulated that protesters were heading to the nearby Bangkok police headquarters or to the finance ministry. 

Thai television, meanwhile, speculated that other targets could be the stock exchange or Don Mueang airport, where Prime Minister Somchai Wongsawat's cabinet has been meeting since Government House was occupied. 

BP: Don Mueang is quite some distance away. 

Somchai has appointed Anupong to monitor the situation - so if there is any violence he can be blamed on him. 

It seems likely that a change of venue or postponement will be in order (and so we then might have a cat-and-mouse game around town) and that the police will be highly restrained as well. Any violence only harms the government. (Matichon has a police source who states that negotiation will be the first recourse, but if the PAD enter Government House they will use high-pressure water).

Finally, and as always appropriate, we shall end with a Thitinan quote:

The protest leaders are planning another attack on parliament, according to sources close to the top PAD activists. They are concerned that parliament, due to reconvene today, will approve constitutional amendments that will effectively allow Thaksin and more than 100 of his key supporters – who have been barred from politics for five years by the Constitutional Court – to return to active politics, including an amnesty that will ensure the former premier does not serve any jail term.

This will thoroughly defeat the PAD’s campaign and it cannot allow this to happen. “The PAD protesters are angrier than ever, particularly after the recent physical attacks on them,” said Prof Thitinan Pongsudhirak, a political scientist at Bangkok’s Chulalongkorn University.

“They are intent on causing havoc and violence in an effort to push the army into action and topple the government. 

“They are desperate, as they know their broad-base support has fallen away. Their only chance is to create as much trouble as possible and force the army’s hands.”

The last time the protesters marched on parliament – seven weeks ago – street battles with police left two dead and hundreds wounded.

...

But many military specialists said they believed Gen Anupong would resist efforts to force a military coup as long as there is an option. “Anupong will do everything to avoid taking power – he has clearly said military coups are a thing of the past,” Prof Thitinan said. “He’ll only move as an absolute last resort – uncontrollable violence.”

BP: I am not going to predict what PAD will do today as really noone knows.

Asia Times:

When Thailand's Constitution Court finally rules on whether or not to dissolve the ruling People's Power Party (PPP) and two of its junior coalition partners on electoral fraud charges, there is a chance that the long-awaited decision sets in motion a concatenation of court-endorsed events that overhauls the country's politics and bids to bring its dangerously escalating political conflict to a conclusive end. The Constitution Court reviewed evidence from the three parties' defense teams on Thursday and has called for a meeting of party representatives on November 26. A final verdict is expected soon thereafter. Prime Minister Somchai Wongsawat has advised his 

PPP members to prepare to jump ship to the Puea Thai party in the eventuality the PPP is disbanded and the party's top executives are banned from politics. 

The move would be aimed to circumvent a dissolution decision and allow former PPP members to form a new government as Puea Thai members rather than having to dissolve parliament and hold new elections. Most Bangkok-based analysts have that as their baseline case scenario, with a Puea Thai party-led government lasting long enough to disperse the 2009 budget and other spending measures to help coalition parties build up their financial war chests for a new round of elections in either late 2009 or early 2010.

BP: It is becoming more obvious that the current government, in some form, will last longer than expected (i.e beyond this year). They need to amend the constitution first and that goal is still a minimum of 6 months away.

Now, the crucial part:

However, a top leader within the anti-government People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD) protest movement, which for the past three months has laid siege to Government House in a bid to topple the PPP-led government, predicts a wholly different scenario after the widely expected guilty verdict, one that exploits a perceived loophole in the Thai constitution and would amount to a sort of judicial coup. 

The Thai charter allows politicians from disbanded political parties 60 days to regroup under a new party banner. However, the charter fails to indicate explicitly who or what agency would have the legitimacy to govern in that interim period. The PAD source claims that Constitution Court, Supreme Court and Administrative Court judges have discussed establishing a "Supreme Council", consisting symbolically of nine members, to fill the political vacuum. 

The proposed authority - which the PAD source likened to China's State Council or cabinet - would be empowered to appoint an interim prime minister and cabinet, and also pass legislation by decree. The same source indicated that the planning had come far enough along that behind-the-scenes 2006 coup-maker and former spy chief Squadron Leader Prasong Soonsiri is the top candidate to chair the proposed council, and that Privy Councilor and palace favorite Palakorn Suwanarat would likely be appointed interim premier. 

Once and if the said council is formed, it would presumably move quickly to push through the controversial political changes the PAD has advocated through its protests, including a move towards a part-appointed, part-elected Lower House of parliament, where conservative institutions, including the military and courts, would hold sway over the appointment process. 

Such a move would intentionally diminish the popular voice and by association former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra's and the PPP-cum-Puea Thai's democratically delivered political power. It would also mirror the military-drafted 2007 charter's rollback of a fully elected Senate, which was enshrined in the progressive and now annulled 1997 charter. Prasong led the military-appointed National Legislative Assembly in 2006 and 2007 and oversaw the passage of reams of reactionary legislation. 

The PAD-favored scenario would allow the conservative forces that have aligned behind its movement - including segments of the military, bureaucracy, opposition Democrat Party and, at least symbolically, the monarchy - to overhaul the country's politics in the name of the rule of law and without resorting to what would likely be an unpopular military putsch. 

It would also be consistent with the recent trend towards the "judicialization" of Thai politics, an apparently royally endorsed concept where high courts and esteemed judges fill the role the monarchy has traditionally played in mediating complex political disputes. 

Conservative agenda

It's unclear for now whether a judicial coup is mere wishful PAD thinking or the actual hidden agenda of conservative forces to forge a final, non-violent solution to the country's debilitating political crisis while in the process guaranteeing the future centrality of the monarchy in Thai society after the highly revered King Bhumibol Adulyadej eventually passes from the scene. 

BP: Whether this actually happens is still unknown and whether it is wishful thinking by someone from the PAD. Then again that judges would gather together to discuss what they see as desireable political outcomes would not be out of character and how they can use their judicial power to achieve this is not unknown. I doubt PPP supporters would stand by quietly and they are able to mobolize in large numbers, as evidenced by the November 1 rally. 

Would they really do this before the ASEAN meeting? 

btw, Handley on members of the judiciary and the Privy Council (PDF):

Former navy chief Admiral Chumpol Pachusanon was then added (2005); and justice ministry veteran and ex-Supreme Court president, Santi Thakral (2005). Demonstrating the apparent focus on maintaining networks of influence and information through the justice ministry, yet another former Supreme Court president was named to the council in August 2007, Atthaniti Disathaamnari

While the vitroil isn't there like at the PAD rallies some of the "theories" are equally as bizarre. The Nation:

Jakrapob revealed that the visa cancellation of former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra and his wife by the United Kingdom was sought by a former Thai foreign minister [BP: Prasong ?] who promised to protect the interest of the UK in Phuket in exchange for the visa revocation in order to humiliate Thaksin.

Matichon reports that Jakrapob framed it as the backstory behind Thaksin's visa revocation. Jakrapob is paraphrased as saying that three days before the revocation that the former foreign Minister went to the UK and that senior UK officials came to Thailand. In these negotiations there was talk about protecting land/property of certain people in Phuket in exchange for the visa revocation.

BP: Now, it is certainly possible that the UK government is concerned about the interests of UK nationals and businesses and made this clear to the Thai government, but that there was some quid-pro-quo negotiated with a former foreign minister just makes no sense  - is there any guarantee this former foreign minister will be able to help at all? Aren't some of these land/foreign business act problems the direct result of the nationalists who passed legislation when the coup leaders were in power? 

Matichon has an article quoting one privy councillor, Ampol Senanarong, in a speech on November 20 complained that the PAD was impeding the work of the Royal Projects Development Board. He said they are normally based at Government House and can't enter to work. Many important items are located at Government House. To enter they need to send a written request to the PAD. They have only been allowed to take out 2 items and are constantly supervised when at Government House. This has caused many problems for their work. "Officials need to base themselves at the Chai Pattana Foundation for now. This has resulted in hundreds of people in a small amount of space. This has made work very difficult. They are so close together it is like a wet market. They are looking for a new work space and they will need to rent as theirs was seized"

BP: Now imagine if Thaksin was impeding the work of the the same body and a privy councillor was complaining, I expect it would create more news than page 15 in Matichon and nothing in the English-language press.

h/t Jess

I have already blogged that Thai-American, Tammy Duckworth, is under consideration to be Veteran Affairs Secretary in the Obama Administration, but the person almost certain to be Treasury Secretary, Timothy Geithner, has a Bangkok connection of his own. He graduated from the International School of Bangkok - his dad worked for the Ford Foundation. He was Treasury Under Secretary of the Treasury for International Affairs and worked on the bailouts during the Asian economic crisis hit in the late 90s. He is known to favour free trade.

h/t to a long-time reader.

btw, he also went to Johns Hopkins so I hope he doesn't meet up with any of the Thai alumni lest people start talking...

FYI, here is on the possibility of a systematic crisis in the financial system in 2004.

A reader forwards on a report that on certain Thai ISPs that if you search for certain words you get no search results. For example, searching the word "majeste" in google from using a certain Thai ISP brings up the odd result of:

 404 error  : File not found

The URL you requested was not found

BP: An odd software or computer error? Or part of an ISP plan to "protect" their customers by content filtering (such an error is consistent with ISP filtering)? What about the other ISPs (True doesn't have the problem)? Does anyone have the same problems? 

The below is from the frontpage page of the Bangkok Post:

 

BP: Doesn't this look like the Palestinian mourners carrying the body of those who die?

In a letter to the editor, Wesley Hsu writes:

The current use and discussion of the nation's lese majeste laws have created a feedback loop of opposing political camps competing for blood, while those few progressive or insane enough to speak freely on the monarchy continue to supply it.

To what end? So long as republicanism is the kingdom's dirtiest word, commoners will not be permitted to approach the laws except to radicalise them.

That doesn't mean reform isn't possible; only that it has to come about by pushing in another direction. If the Royal Family is revered and above criticism, then the Royal Family alone deserves prerogative to decide when it has been slandered.

The public, protesters and politicians should only act as watchdogs, submitting alleged cases of lese majeste to a designated palace office, which would have the authority to request further investigation through a specified police unit.

This idea is not new, but it has never enjoyed broad support because it has been sold to the wrong faction _ those who cynically weaponise the chaos of ill-defined lese majeste laws. It is time for the genuinely royalist majority to disempower the extremists and re-define lese majeste as a matter of royal privilege. His Majesty's name can only be extracted from cheap politics by raising the price of its invocation.

It will be argued that such a process would improperly drag the palace into participating in criminal justice. But with the usually restrained Democrats now proposing to make ''contemptuous tones'' on the internet and email punishable by three to 20 years' imprisonment, one wonders what propriety remains to be saved.

BP: This type of reform has been talked about for a while (see Streckfuss' op-ed - via TJTS),* but Wes provides more details on the process in a short, well-written piece.

btw, actually I thought his August letter to the editor where he described the PAD as a "reactionary cultural movement" was even better.

*To see how lese majeste law has changed, have a look at this paper (PDF) co-authored by Streckfuss and particularly the comparision of a case in 1939 with a more recent case in 1988 and you can see how the law has changed over time.

DPA:

Predictably, Thaksin has not taken his new status lying down.

'He is desperate,' said Thitinan Pongsudhirak, a political scientist at Bangkok's prestigious Chulalongkorn University. 'He has little to lose. His money is frozen, his family scattered. He's homeless and a homeless person is a dangerous person. 

...

'The visa was the last straw,' said a close Thaksin associate, who blamed the UK visa decision on Thaksin's political enemies, even through the pro-Thaksin People Power Party is running the current government and theoretically controls the foreign ministry.

Although Thaksin has been denied a visa to Great Britain, the convicted premier still holds a diplomatic passport which his brother-in-law, Prime Minister Somchai, has refused to revoke.

Shortly after losing his British visa, Thaksin started to step up his offensive.

He vowed to make a phone-in speech to a rally on December 14th at which he will name all his political enemies.

There is some scepticism that he will indeed name all of his political enemies, as they are known to be many and some rather illustrious.

...

Jatuporn confirmed that Thaksin had divorced his wife on November 14 as part of his decision to reenter politics, presumably to protect her and her assets from any fallout should his comeback fail.

Thaksin's main motivation for launching his offensive remains a mystery.

'It's very difficult to psychoanalyze him,' said Chris Baker, who has co-authored several books about Thaksin and recent Thai history. 'We don't know how much he is motivated by his money and how much he really believes that his coming back as the politcal saviour of Thailand.'

...

One thing is certain: Thaksin has divided Thailand like no other politician before him and his return to real power would inevitably lead to a deeper division in Thai society.

'I can't conceive of Thailand going back under Thaksin,' said Thitinan. 'No matter what he does the southerners will hate him, and the Bangkok elite will hate him. I can see a lot of civil strife.'

BP:  When he returned to Thailand earlier this year, he was noticeably quiet. There were no Oprah or Larry King-like interviews - in fact, I don't recall him giving a single interview. As circumstances changed, Thaksin has gone more on the offensive. He seems to have decided that just being in the background is no longer an option. This has been evolving over a number of months, but it is becomingle increasingly clear to me now. His return is more likely to strike a deal than an actual attempt to become PM again.

Baker is also quoted in a Bloomberg article:

"There's a very high risk of the violence increasing,'' said Chris Baker, a Bangkok-based political analyst. `"Protesters have been talking about civil war for the last month and pro-government people have been threatening to bomb the PAD encampment, so this is what has been promised.''

The Nation continues this theme "...few people would have thought about another coup or civil war taking place in this country". The article then states:

From a conflict of ideas to a conflict of society without violence … to a conflict with weapons until blood is shed. It seems that the country is heading now to the point of no return … civil war or another coup.

After the bomb at Government House yesterday, PAD have announced a final countdown:

The People's Alliance for Democracy issued a statement yesterday calling for a mass anti-government rally this Sunday, just hours after the latest bomb attack against its members.

"The PAD leaders agreed unanimously to mobilise a large crowd of supporters at Government House on Sunday for the 'final offen