The Nation has a timeline of yesterday's events. 

Free Thai e-mails along some links to a large number of photos they have taken and are uploaded on a German language blog about Thailand - see here, here, and here.

BP: Don't have much time so will be quick. UDD will disperse today, but have stated they will come back after the holidays. In what form and where they will protest is not yet unknown. They did have a motivation to prevent the policy statement as one of the constitutional drafters said on ThaiPBS that if the government was unable to deliver the policy statement they would be forced to dissolve parliament.  So far the protests have had been people pushing against the police lines but haven't seen any reports of violence (have been busy, but there are no blazing headlines at The Manager or The Nation so one must assume if there was any we would hear about it from them). Nevertheless for a variety of reasons, UDD won't have the same leeway that PAD did. If they are to continue protesting, people will quickly tire. While the rheotric does not appear as bad, they are becoming very similiar to the PAD of 2006. They would be better served going home and letting the government have a go at things. Set up a TV channel and express your grustrations and criticism there. 

A recession is two quarters of negative growth and while it was on the cards for next year, the Ministry of Finance predicts slightly sooner than expected as WSJ notes:

Last week, Thailand's Ministry of Finance lowered its 2009 economic growth forecast to 0% - 2% from its earlier target of a 4% expansion in gross domestic product. The ministry said the economy would likely contract in the last quarter of this year and first quarter of 2009.

BP: Thai government agenices are often slightly optimistic at times so if they are predicting a recession then it is almost certain there will be one.

Another WSJ article has details on the Democrat-led government stimulus plan:

Mr. Abhisit, in a recent interview with The Wall Street Journal, said his top priority will be to help bridge Thailand's political divides, partly by strengthening the economy, which appears set to slide into recession in the early part of 2009.

On Friday, Mr. Abhisit told reporters the government will begin disbursing funds from its 300 billion baht, or $8.6 billion, stimulus package in March or April. He said the funds will come from a supplementary budget for the current fiscal year, ending Sept. 30, 2009, as well as from loans from state-owned financial institutions and from the reallocation of funds already held by local governments.

Much of the lending will go to support farmers and small businesses in north and northeast Thailand, where Mr. Thaksin won resounding electoral victories and is still widely popular.

Mr. Abhisit also plans a series of tax incentives to spur home construction, business investment and private consumption.

BP: He first needs to present the policy statement...

btw, the second article has an interesting chart showing all GDP growth by each quarter over the last 8 years.

The Nation:

Again, Anupong would not have anything to do with the state of emergency. He would exert no action.

Anupong rebuffed Somchai by sending back a signal that the military would stage a coup if Somchai were to remove him from the Army post.

With two prime ministers from the Thaksin camp losing power in a hurry, Somchai ousted through a party dissolution court order, it was impossible to have the third nominee prime minister from this camp. 

Anupong backed a switch in the core of the coalition government. The Democrats got a political windfall. With the defection by Newin Chidchob and his allies, who sought shelter under the military wing, Abhisit succeeded in mustering enough majority in Parliament to become prime minister.

Anupong has promised to back the Democrats for at least two years. But between now and then anything could happen.

BP: And some people believe the military is neutral. Perhaps, Somchai should have called Anupong's bluff...

Veera in the Post:

Sadly though, the phone-in session which is always touted as the highlight of UDD rallies seems to have lost the magic touch. The last phone-in session which took place in Khon Kaen was not even mentioned in any mainstream newspaper.

There is an old Thai saying which goes: "Three days away, a girl changes heart."

BP: The fact that the mainstream print press didn't even report/mention it tells us more about them that it does about Thaksin.

A great find by Andrew at New Mandala. Have a read.

BP: It riles BP this "good" and "bad" intentions argument (in this context, "he meant no harm"). This they are good people and so if they do something which has negative consequences it is excused as they did it with the best of intentions. Whereas anything good done by Thaksin is ignored as he had "bad" intentions. How people can really know what intentions people have when they did something BP does not know - many people have multiple reasons for doing things anyway - and hence BP discounts it. It is the results which are measurable and hence BP deems more relevant.

How far will a NCCC investigation of Kasit or the new government go?

The first past is from yesterday.

The Bangkok Post:

Protesters led by the United Front for Democracy against Dictatorship (UDD) on Sunday used iron barricades to close down U-Thong Nai road near the Equestrian Statue of King Rama V. They said they have to blockade the road for the safety of incoming demonstrators in front of the parliament.

Police forces were putting up signs and distributing about 40,000 leaflets to the protesters, warning them to gather peacefully and obey the law.

At the protesting stage across from the parliament, the UDD core members took turns to criticise the coalition government led by Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva. They said his government was formed illegitimately and it should dissolve the parliament and return power to the people. 

The deputy commander of the Metropolitan Police Bureau, Pol Maj Gen Amnuay Nimmano, said the police will stick to the same measures as the ones being used against the People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD). 

The protesters could be charged with insurrection, should they attempt to stop the government from delivering its policy statement to the parliament on Monday and Tuesday, according to the deputy commander.

He said the police will use close circuit cameras to record activities during the anti-government protest and they will not take violent actions against the demonstrators definitely.

He also asked commuters to avoid using roads from Sanam Luang to the parliament during this period.

BP: It is still unsure what UDD will do? BP briefly heard a press conference today where one of the UDD leaders said they won't do what PAD did and prevent parliament from meeting if they were to protest outside of parliament and would allow them to enter. He said they will control things and the problems after the vote of the PM was because none of the UDD leaders were at the scene to control things.

Thai TV tonight reports that Crime Suppression and the Border Police are waiting along with around 3,000 police in total. 

It is difficult to predict what will happen with both sides.

Today, The Nation reports:

Red shirt supporters marched from Sanam Luang and blocked access to the Parliament where Abhisit government is due to deliver policy statements. 

Deputy Prime Minister Suthep Theugsubhan said negotiation is launched between the government and leaders of the protesters, including Jatuporn Promphun and Veera Musikapong.

Police said the protesters allow reporters and parliament officials to enter the Parliament compound through Tewarin gate near Pichai Intersection.

However the protesters surrounded the gate and allowed people to enter and leave one by one.

Hundreds of police were deployed to the area and were told not to use forces or tear gas to disperse the protesters.

Suthep said if the negotiation failed, his government may postpone the delivery of the policy statements. By laws, a government has to deliver policy statement within 15 days. For Abhisit government, it has to do within January 7, 2009.

Earlier Jatuporn, a rally organiser, said their objective is to pressure Abhisit into dissolving Parliament for a snap general election.

Rally organisers have threatened to prevent ingress to Parliament House during the policy debate set for today and tomorrow.

Matichon reports Suthep as saying that in regards to the UDD statement that MPs and the Cabinet can enter parliament that this can't happen as no one can provide a guarantee of safety as eventhose in the cars have been injured [refering to the events of the previous week]. He asked the police and they are concerned that some protesters may have weapons. Matichon also reports Jakrapob of UDD as saying that they want Abhisit to come and listen to what they have to say. He adds the government has no legitimacy and wants a dissolution. Chalerm is separately quoted as saying that everyone should stop protesting after new elections.

BP: UDD need to ensure that MPs are allowed to enter parliament so parliament can meet - this TNA article quotes Veera of UDD (after meeting with the Police Chief) as saying they will facilitate the entrance of MPs into parliament, but there seems to be a stand off with the coalition party MPs not being confident enough to enter.It is unlikely that PAD will agree to Chalerm's demand because if there was a dissolution and Puea Thai won then the PAD will start protesting again.

Both sides are playing a bit off politics with UDD still making the PAD-Democrat link as the Post reports:

"Mr Abhisit could walk among the People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD) protesters and enter the parliament comfortably. Now, the red-clad demonstrators are gathering without arms and they will not incite any unrest. If the premier can walk with the yellow-shirted crowd, he can also walk with the protesters in red," said Mr Nattawut.

The UDD core member assured the prime minister and MPs that they will be safe when they walk to the parliament, and the offenders would be hold responsible for their actions, should problems erupt.

BP: UDD need to be careful as the media won't be as "tolerant" with them as they were with PAD. At what point, do they become just like PAD who they were previously protesting against?

TNA:

Thailand's newly-appointed Cabinet is empowered to work without first presenting the government's policy statement to Parliament, Parliament President Chai Chidchob said on Saturday. 

Under Article 176 of the Constitution, the government must address its policy statement to the legislative body within 15 days after the Cabinet has assumed office, Mr. Chai said. 

But the second clause of the same article stipulates that if the delivery of the statement is not held within the required period due to negative circumstances such as blocking Parliament by protesters, the Cabinet may begin its duties as it deems necessary, he said. 

The newly-appointed coalition government of Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva began work on December 23 and plans to deliver its policy statement on Monday and Tuesday. 

Article 176, paragraph 2 of the Constitution:

Before stating policies to the National Assembly under paragraph one, if there occurs a case of importance and necessary urgency which, if left delayed, will affect material benefits of State, the Council of Ministers which has taken office may, for the time being, carry out such acts in so far as it is necessary

BP: Simple translation is that important and urgent matters can be undertaken by the Cabinet before the policy address, but not normal business or that the Cabinet "may begin its duties as it deems necessary" (could just be a translation issue so this is not necessarily a critique of what Chai says). No doubt given we no longer have a PPP-led government we might get a more broad interpretation of Article 176.

Former US Ambassador to Thailand  Darryl N. Johnson has an op-ed in the LA Times. Then also Anthony Bailey has an op-ed The Guardian.

BP: Both articles would likely be viewed in a favourable light by the Palace. It is difficult in a lese majeste environment to critique or even say which parts of such pieces one agrees or disagrees with so just read them and make your own comments.

btw, people in the comments of The Guardian op-ed have pointed out that Anthony Bailey also founded a PR agency which does PR work for foreign governments. Now imagine if he had sent anything positive about Thaksin. BP doesn't think there is much to this unless there is actual evidence of a link. It should be noted he has royalist connections (noticed that Labour declined his donation)... He just shoulds like a royalist, not a paid PR person.

The Bangkok Post:

The Puea Thai party yesterday lodged a criminal complaint against Interior Minister Chavarat Charnvirakul and his deputy Boonjong Wongtrairat for giving unauthorised orders ahead of the government's policy statement to parliament.

As the Democrat-led administration has yet to deliver its policy statement, orders by the pair were illegal, said Puea Thai MP for Nakhon Ratchasima Somchai Petprasert.

Mr Chavarat's Dec 24 order to allocate responsibilities to his deputies breached Article 145 of the Criminal Code, which involves posing as state officials without proper authorisation, he said.

Mr Somchai said the interior minister could not give orders until the Abhisit government makes its policy address.

"The government has yet to deliver a policy statement, so he cannot execute an order. And I am not so sure if the government can make its policy address as planned," he said.

Mr Somchai said Mr Boonjong also violated the law when instructing provincial governors in a video conference to monitor the movement of anti-government United Front of Democracy against Dictatorship (UDD) supporters.

The UDD, which is loyal to former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra, plans to hold a rally at Sanam Luang today and move to parliament to disrupt the policy statement address, which will be delivered tomorrow and Tuesday.

Mr Somchai said the deputy interior minister's order undermined democratic rights and civil liberties.

"Do not rave on about exercising power when no policy presentation has been made," he said.

Mr Boonjong said yesterday the Interior Ministry had no plan to block UDD supporters from joining the rally at Sanam Luang. He said he was confident no violence would take place.

BP: Chavarat was a Deputy PM in the PPP-led government and Boonjong was a PPP MP. Changing alliances...

On Friday, December 19 then Foreign Minister in waiting Kasit spoke to a number of foreign journalists, diplomats, and other observers at Chulalongkorn at a forum entitled "A Democrat Party-led Government: Undercurrents and Prospects"

A BP reader has passed on the audio of three questions and answers by Kasit.

NOTE: Audio quality is not perfect, particularly on the questions, but you can clearly make out what he is saying.

No.1

No.2



No. 3

In 3rd answer, he is riling against the questioner although why BP is unsure as it is hardly a loaded question. Kasit says Thaksin brought political parties. So how did the Democrats get the Newin faction to join the government? 

He says that "they"asked Somchai to dissolve parliaments many times. Who is they here? Democrats or the PAD?]  He then said that Somchai's response was to go to Peru [BP: Umm. The APEC leaders meeting was held in Peru.] He talks about the new government being democratic and it is done within parliament, but was this his position previously? When they voted for Samak or Somchai it was not legitimate, but now suddenly it is. He likes the outcome and so hence he views it now as democratic. He also says we have been able to keep the peaceful changes within the parliament? Peaceful? And solely within the parliament?

btw, why when Kasit talks about the PAD does he only refer to them being "housewives and children", what about the PAD guards?

Revolution and Greece?

Nirmal Ghosh in the Strait Times has a a short article on how the elite in Thailand still call the shots including some brief excerpts from a number of scholars. Key excerpt:

Chulalongkorn University political scientist Thitinan Pongsudhirak, in a recent paper in the Journal of Democracy, wrote: 'Thaksin...sought to usher Thailand into a new era, up-ending its anachronistic, neofeudal hierarchy, even as his opponents tagged him for corrupt cronyism, graft and abuses of power.

'Chief among these opponents were the bureaucrats, the military and the monarchy - a troika that has called the shots in Thailand for decades.''

On their side is much of Bangkok's upper middle class, who share a distaste for corruption in politics and see the rise of the rural masses through the vote as a threat to their dominance of Thailand.

BP: Unsurprisingly, BP agrees.

Posting will be on and off until January 5, 2009. Might not always be available to post on breaking news as will be spending periods of time away from the computer, but will still try to schedule some posts. 

Belated Christmas greetings to all.

The Nation:

Deputy Prime Minister Sanan Kachornprasart Thursday expressed confidence that the government would last longer than three months.

"Anyone can bet against me. I believe the government will stay longer than three months or at least three months and one day," Sanan said.

But he admitted that he was not certain whether the government would last for a year.

BP: A vote of confidence! Hopefully, they get at least until December next year.

...so declares new Foreign Minister Kasit after The Telegraph reported this statements. Matichon reports Kasit as saying that previously he has given many interviews to the foreign press and that their intentions are not cute/lovely (ซึ่งผู้สื่อข่าวต่างประเทศที่มีเจตนาไม่น่ารัก). They take parts of what is said and interpret it.

BP: Big bad foreign journos ganging up on him?

In regards to statements that Jakrapob made at the FCCT 4 months before the election, The Nation:

Democrat Party leader Abhisit Vejjajiva Saturday called on Prime Minister Samak Sundaravej to remove PM's Office Minister Jakrapob Penkair from the Cabinet, saying his stay would severely affect the government's stability.

Abhisit said the call had no political motive but it was made because Jakrapob had acted improperly as a minister.

BP: For timeline see here.

Today:

The prime minister defended his foreign minister over his remarks about the airport closure, saying Mr Kasit wanted to convey a message that there was no violence in the protest.

"But when it was reported, it made people feel he approved of the airport shutdown," he said.

Mr Abhisit said there was no need to change the foreign minister as Mr Kasit's comments had been made before his appointment to the cabinet.

The foreign minister was from now on obligated to observe nine requirements laid down for the cabinet ministers to follow to ensure good governance, the prime minister said.

BP: So suddenly whatever Kasit said before his appointment is irrelevant?  Didn't Abhisit have a different standard with Jakrapob? Yeah, yeah oppositions and governments quickly change their stripes, but the media absolutely piled on Jakrapob whereas now, we have Supalak, however, will anyone point to Abhisit's double standard? It should also be noted when Kasit made his comments on Friday while it had not been officially confirmed he was FM, he knew he was the FM in waiting.

Nevertheless, Puea Thai aren't going to rest and will be taking up the issue when parliament meets. There is plenty on Kasit. Still trying to find video of him speaking at the PAD stage at the airport - yes, he spoke on stage during the airport siege. He is the easy UDD target now.

BP has previously covered the lese majeste charges filed against Jonathan Head - see here, here, and here. The crusaders are at it again.

CPJ:

The Committee to Protect Journalists condemns the ongoing legal harassment of BBC correspondent Jonathan Head. Police Lt. Col. Wattanasak Mungkandee filed a third criminal complaint this year against Head on December 23, alleging he had insulted the Thai monarchy in his reporting. 

The latest charges are related to a December 3 article [BP: Article here] in which Head speculated that the royal palace and figures close to the palace may have provided tacit backing to anti-government protest group the People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD), which laid siege to Bangkok's main international and domestic airports from November 26 to December 3.

Thai law allows any citizen to bring complaints against anyone they believe has insulted the country's monarchy. Wattanasak has brought all three complaints against Head in his personal capacity rather than as a senior ranking police official, according to Head. Violations of lese majeste laws are a criminal offense in Thailand, punishable by three to 15 years imprisonment.

"It is time for prosecutors and investigators in Thailand to immediately drop these outrageous and punitive charges against our colleague Jonathan Head," said Bob Dietz, CPJ's Asia program coordinator. "Head's reporting has raised important questions about Thailand's deteriorating political situation and he should be allowed to report without fear of official reprisals."

Head told CPJ that investigating police officials had requested a DVD recording of a Foreign Correspondents Club of Thailand (FCCT) event on December 9 titled "The State of Politics and the Way Forward for Thailand" at which members of a pro-government group made reference to Head's reporting. The FCCT announced today that it was suspending sales of that particular event's recording. In an e-mail statement, the FCCT's executive board said that "DVD recordings of Club events had been misused by certain individuals with their own agendas, in a way that compromises the free speech values the media community and the FCCT stand for."

Local and foreign journalists have been under attack this year as a political crisis led to three changes of government in as many months. Head, a well-respected figure in Thai journalism has specifically been targeted. The first complaint against Head was filed on April 9, and was related to comments the reporter made in December 2007 while moderating another event at the FCCT titled "Coup, Capital, and Crown." The discussion touched on the monarchy's role in Thai society in light of the 2006 military coup. The second complaint against Head, filed on May 30, included charges that his reporting over a two-year period had "intended to criticize the monarchy several times" and that "his writings have damaged and insulted the reputation of the monarchy," according to an English-language translation of the charges obtained by CPJ.

The May 30 complaint against Head cited 11 different articles from the BBC's Web site, several of which he did not author. Thai authorities have in recent months cracked down on hundreds of Web sites for posting materials considered offensive to the monarchy. Both the complaints are still pending.

BP: It should be noted that there is no suggestion yet that this is orchestrated by some "invisible hand". All reliable sources indicate there is a single, self-appointed British "crusader" behind it. One must ask the question if you disagree so much about what foreign journalists are writing about Thailand, why not set up your own blog and critique them? Instead of trawling around the internet and translating articles that merely mention "monarchy" and turning up at FCCT events for the sole purpose of laying complaints against journalists.

Perhaps, Thanong can write another op-ed saying that it is all "perception rather than reality". The thing with lese majeste complaints is that someone makes a complaint against you, no matter how flimsly the charges, any prudent person has to hire a lawyer (when the offence carries a jail sentence of 3-15 years do you really want to dismiss it?). You'll have to go to the police station, be interviewed etc.  If you are unlucky enough you might not even get bail pending trial. These are all risks. What about the complaint? It costs them nothing. They are free to go on their merry way to think up more ways to lay charges.

h/t to Thai Politico

UPDATE: Slightly edited the transcript - updated again on December 25 in the afternoon.

Abhisit in The Nation:

Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva defended his foreign minister on Wedensday over his comments that the occupation of Bangkok's airports by anti-government protesters was "a lot of fun."

"His comments were made before the royal command appointed him as minister. He later explained to me what he had said and that what appeared in media was inaccurate," Abhisit told reporters.

"He merely wanted to convey the message that there was no violence during occupation but the way the media reported it amounted to him endorsing the shutting down of the airports," he said.

Meanwhile Kasit apologised over the remarks reported by Britain's Daily Telegraph about the siege by the protesters. The paper quoted him as saying that the food was good and the music was excellent.

Audio of part of what he said at the event is below:

BP is in a rush so the transcript below is NOT complete and will be edited later.  However, as I don't have access to audio later it is published as is. This refers to what Kasit said at Chula last Friday and which was the subject of the article in The Telegraph. Just prior to this part, he was criticising the foreign media.

"You never mention anything about human rights infringment on a daily basis against housewife and young children and so on... peaceful... and then of course, you tend to believe we were armed. That is so much of the ammunitions cache in the, at the airport and at the Government House. My wife was there every evening. I don't know what she was armed with. Food for the poor and medicines and things like this. So many. 70% of women were there. We always invite all of you to join us in the evening. It was a lot of fun also... The food was excellent, the music was excellent."

BP: An informed reader who wishes to remain anonymous and was present informs BP that their understanding was that Kasit was referring to all the PAD protests in general. BP was not there and Kasit's English is good, but it is halting at times and he jumps around so it is unclear what he is talking about.  Given this, there is some abmiguity about what which protest he was referring to so there is grounds to his out-of-context statement although one can't say The Telegraph report was wrong either. Kasit is unclear.

This some reader and another reliable reader - who is personally known to BP - both seperately write that Kasit was so undiplomatic that people there were shocked that this was the new Foreign Minister. It should be noted that a number of senior diplomats from various missions were there so he was hardly the "best face" of the Abhisit government.

Tend to believe we were armed? Peaceful? Look if you are going to spin, why not say there were some bad eggs and what they did was unauthorised? Instead, we were in complete denial mode.

btw, hope to get full audio of what he said soon.

The Nation:

"I apologise to all Thai people if what I had said has resulted in misunderstanding or misinterpretation. It was impossible that I have intention to harm the country and the Thai public," he said.

He was speaking after paying homage to the statue of HRH Prince Devavongse Varoprakarn for his first day in the office.

Kasit is quoted by The Telegraph that he enjoyed the airport closures by protesters led by People's Alliance for Democracy because the food was good and the music was excellent.

According to the Telegraph, Kasit told an audience of astonished diplomats and foreign journalists last week that the protests were "a lot of fun." The food was excellent, the music was excellent," Kasit was quoted as saying.

He did not deny outright that he did not make the statements with the media. He just gave a "yes" nod when asked by reporters to confirm his statement.

He said he is ready to answer all questions in the Parliament when Abhisit government delivered the policy statements next week.

He said he understood that his remarks would affect the government's performance.

"I would like to divide my life into two phases -- before and after December 22, the day I am appointed as foreign minister. I don't want to erase or defend what I said before December 22.  However there was attempts to misinterpret them," he said.

BP: It was "taken out of context", no doubt. One suspects that some senior Democrat bigwig or perhaps Abhisit himself had a "word to him". It should be noted that his comments were given widespread coverage in the Thai language press - not direct reports by the press, but basically quoting The Telegraph story.*

Kasit is a loose canon. He has said plenty of inflammatory statements in his time - at the FCCT he repeated the Finland Declaration details although was short in details.

Although, BP "enjoys" reading good political spin so is pleasantly suprised on how quick the Abhisit government is on the apology and it was taken out of context line (actually, was looking for a statement that "fun" has many meanings spin). Lance the boil before it becomes a problem. Interesting to see if this becomes a trend in the Abhisit government. 

*Over time BP has noted how careful some sections of the Thai language media are when commenting negatively about the PAD. One frequent way around this is to summarize a foreign wire/newspaper story and say that AP says xxx etc. No doubt they can pacify the PAD supporters by saying we are reporting what the foreign media are saying, but it seems to be their indirect way of criticizing the PAD.

This blog has mentioned the "Finland Declaration" a number of times (most recently here), but a Finnish journalist is on the case and well finds nothing. Key excerpt:

 The accusations, which spread in the Thai media in May 2006 fuelled the downward spiral of Thaksin’s popularity, and four months after the “Finland conspiracy” was made public, in September 2006, the army staged a coup. 

Later, billionaire Thaksin was convicted in absentia for corruption and misuse of power. 

      

According to the claims, Thaksin and his fellow party members drew up a five-part “declaration” during a visit to Finland, aimed at deposing the Chankri dynasty of the Thai Kingdom. 

In the declaration, a republic was to have been formed in Thailand, and the Rak Thai party at the time was to have been made the country’s only party, and Thaksin himself was to have been made the first president in Thailand’s history. 

Supporters of the plan were said to have included influential businessmen, and veterans of the 1973 uprising. 

The allegations were published as a five-part series of articles in the Manager Daily, owned by Thai media mogul and milionaire Sondhi Limthongul in May 2006. The series was headlined “Finland strategy: Thailand’s revolution plan?” 

Sopndhi was Thaksin’s former friend, who later turned against him. He is also a founding member of the monarchist popular movement, PAD, which opposes Thaksin. 

      

Allegations about the “Finland conspiracy” have never been proven, but it is known that Thaksin has visited Finland and Finnish Lapland several times. This is confirmed by the Finnish Ambassador to Thailand Lars Backström. 

“The rumour started when Thaksin visited Finnish Lapland along with some fellow politicians. During that trip, the gentlemen had discussed Thailand’s future”, Backström says by telephone from Bangkok. 

“He [Thaksin] has a reindeer driving licence”, Backström reveals. 

Backström says that he has followed the controversy concerning the “Finland declaration” in the Thai media since 2006, and reported on it to the Finnish Ministry for Foreign Affairs. 

“But it did not amount to anything more”, he says. 

The Ambassador even asked Thaksin himself about the matter personally in 2006, when Thaksin visited Finland. 

“He said that he had visited Lapland, but that no such discussions [on a Finland plan] had taken place”, Backström says. 

      

According to information learned by Helsingin Sanomat, Thaksin had visited Finland enthusiastically already during his career as a businessman in the 1980s and 1990s. During his business trips he met leaders of Nokia, and possibly with Finnish telecommunications operators. 

According to Nokia, Thaksin made two “normal business visits” to Finland in 1992, and another one “in about the mid-1990s”, Nokia’s head of communications, Eija-Riitta Huovinen does not know if the visits included any excursions to Lapland. 

“We have facilities for guests in Kuusamo, but I don’t know.” 

Backström also cannot say where in Lapland Thaksin might have visited with his politician friends in the late 1990s. Reindeer driving licences can be acquired at numerous tourist destinations, in Saariselkkä, Rovaniemi, and Kuusamo, for instance.

Backström says that rumours of a “Finland plan” disappeared gradually from the pages of Thai newspapers, and the matter is no longer topical. 

      

However, Chadaporn Lin, the head of the news department and news anchor at a Thai television channel, says that the basic allegations of the “Finland plan” are still believed among circles opposed to Thaksin. 

 

“This involves accusations in which Sondhi claims that Thaksin and several of his allies would have visited Finland and plotted to turn Thailand from a constitutional monarchy into a republic. PAD raised the issue, and called it the “Finland plan”, Chadaporn says by telephone from Bangkok. 

Chadaporn works for ASTV, a station owned by media mogul Sondhi, an outspoken opponent of Thaksin. 

“The Finland conspiracy is still popular within PAD. Considering the many things that have popped up to the surface, I think that there is a grain of truth in the matter, and that the plan may have existed.” 

According to Chadaporn, one factor that speaks in favour of the existence of a conspiracy is that people have emerged in Thaksin’s inner circle who want to erode the power of the monarchy in Thailand. Some of them are currently under indictment for lèse majesté. 

“There is clear evidence and reports, accordign to which there have been statements during Thaksin’s meetings, which have been anti-King”, Chadporn says. 

However, there is no conclusive evidence that the “Finland plan” would have been drawn up specifically in Finland. 

“Someone who was taking part in the meeting [in Finland] is claimed to have told about the matter to PAD. However, this person did not want to come out with his own name, so the issue is largely hearsay.” 

BP: We don't know who or even what was said in the apparent "planning sessions".  If one is elected leader in a country one generally wants to be re-elected as well. How to do that? Become popular and implement policies people want. However, to do so it means you encroach on areas of rural development which have normally been the domain of other institutions in society. It is not strictly a zero-sum game, but if your power goes, the power of others will go down. So was this done to (a) help win re-elections, or (b) to cause the power of others to go down. BP believes it was (a). PAD believe it was (b). The question then remains that in any strategy on achieving (a) was (b) which would happen default mentioned?

btw, if there was a plot to overthrow the monarchy and someone actually attended a meeting to plan has now left that side, surely the elite would be able to protect such a person?

h/t Absolutely Bangkok

Journalist Andrew Drummond has a letter to the editor printed at The Nation. He mentions Abhisit and Thaksin, but it is this about the PAD that is worth excerpting:

The BBC described some sections of the PAD as 'thugs', working in a 'military' operation. That is their view, but even I as a foreign correspondent would have to concede during months of protests, despite having lost lives and limbs to police tear gas canisters, and M79 grenades, they exhibited remarkable restraint.

As for the airport sieges, history will perhaps reveal just what type of sieges they ever were. But from what I saw on a daily basis the demo was pretty much restricted to the departure level of Suvarnabhumi.

Despite the photos, there really was no serious blockade. There was just no will to remove them.

BP: The same group who in armed convey drove at the police to push them further back from the checkpoint? They set up a perimeter at points around the airport. That they only limited themselves to certain areas of the airport seems irrelevant. They take it over and were the cause of the airport closure. It was siege. To paraphrase a reader of this blog the people who have lost their job due to the drop in tourist numbers because of what the PAD did are unlikely to think the PAD were remarkly restrained. Your average protest group doesn't take over TV stations, the seat of government, and airports. That is not remarkable restraint.

h/t to a reader.

Pravit in The Nation last week:

The problem began on December 6, when Army Chief Gen Anuphong Paochinda invited key politicians to offer them "advice" on what the new coali-tion should look like. Newin Chidchob, a former Thaksin aide who over the past few months was disenfranchised by his multi-billionaire boss, decided to exploit the situation. The Democrats and the military jumped in as well.

No wonder it is believed that on Monday, a "silent coup" was staged by the military, with back-ing from Abhisit, Newin, the self-styled People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD) and their sup-porters.

The "election" of Abhisit was a coup so quiet that it even caught anti-coup activists like Chotisak Onsoong off-guard. From day one academics and activists, including Chotisak, questioned Abhisit's legitimacy. And it does-n't seem likely that the PM can convince them

otherwise - espe-cially since some people are already calling this government a puppet of the military.

This would not have been pos-sible if the PAD had not seized the two airports and if the Constitu-tion Court had not dissolved three parties, including the People Power Party.

The PAD, which has a Democrat MP as one of its core leaders, was quick to declare victory. The renamed ASTV Manager Daily ran photos of PAD members celebrating Abhisit's victory.

Khamnoon Sitthisamarn, a columnist and editor at the paper, wrote on Monday that the new "political phenomena" with Abhisit as PM "was genuinely a PAD victory!" The editor, who is also an appointed senator, how-ever did admit in his column that this was an "Anuphong-style coup d'etat."

This comes from some-one who has first-hand experience in military intervention - Khamnoon was made member of the National Legislative Assembly soon after the 2006 coup.

Yesterday, the paper shame-lessly ran an "instructive" article on its front page, which said that former diplomat Kasit Piromya, de facto PAD "foreign" specialist, was "ready" to be Foreign Minister. By the way, Kasit is a Democrat Party member and until Monday, was a shadow deputy PM of the party.

Without the months-long protest which paralysed the Samak Sundaravej regime and the puppet government of Somchai Wongsawat, and dealt a deathblow through the blockade of Suvarnabhumi and Don Mueang airports, Anuphong would never have had such lever-age and Abhisit would not have been able to exploit the situation.

Still, business people remain ter-rified that a new Thaksin proxy government would bring the PAD back to the streets and cause even more damage.

Now one wonders how PM-elect Abhisit would reward Democrat MP-cum-PAD-co-leader Somkiat Pongpaiboon for a job "well done". How can the PAD "scrutinise" the new admin-istration when one of its five co-leaders is a Democrat MP?

The Constitution Court's ruling was also questioned as being politically motivated and the dis-solution of parties was viewed by some as too harsh.

As both sides continue using dirty tactics, regardless of the rule of law and decency, the last thing anyone should expect is an end to the social and political division.

BP: Agree on the final paragraph.

Given the Democrats are planning to increase the stimulus package to 180 Billion Baht and that the grassroots voters will be the target of the stimulus (interview with Korn in that article so read for more on Korn's views)*, how long will be until The Nation editorialises to criticise the Democrats for "unprincipled wants and needs of the attention-deficient, politically apathetic masses"? 

Similiarly, now the Democrats are continuing with the village fund, will The Nation continue to criticise it as "handouts" for "consumer items" - despite research showing that 1.4% of the village fund money was spent on consumer items compared to 39.5% on "agricultural equipment/inputs"?

*Interesting tidbit:

Over a year ago, even as the Democrats sat in opposition, Mr Korn led an effort to research economic conditions in the north-east in order to tailor the party's economic policy towards the populous but relatively poor region - a political imperative if it is to make any inroads in the region in the next election.

AP reports:

The researchers claimed that Philip Morris planted a scientist in Chulabhorn Research Institute in Bangkok in a bid to get researchers to play down the impact of secondhand smoking.

...

Thailand has seen the number of cigarettes smoked more than double since 1972 to 42 billion sticks in 2004.

...

In the Thai study, University of Sydney's Ross MacKenzie and University of Edinburgh's Jeff Collin allege that Philip Morris scientist Roger Walk was able to lecture and organize conferences at the Thai government-funded Chulabhorn from the early 1990s to at least 2006.

The researchers say this allowed Philip Morris to develop relationships with key officials and scientists in efforts to discount the threat of secondhand smoke.

Spokeswoman Marija Sepic of Switzerland-based Philip Morris International — which separated this year from the U.S. branch of the company — dismissed the documents as outdated and said the company never hid its affiliation with Walk.

However, Chulabhorn Associate Vice President Jutamaad Satayavivad said the institute was not aware Walk worked for Philip Morris until about a decade into his tenure. After seeing the study, institute officials plan to bar him because he was "not straightforward in sharing with us," she 

Bloomberg has more and a response:

Company documents show Walk formed a working relationship in the 1990s with Mathuros Ruchirawat, the institute’s vice president for research, the study said. Walk was offered a teaching position on a postgraduate course about inhalation toxicology in November 1994, and invited to help develop the curriculum for a United Nations-funded toxicology training program in 1996.

“The active and ongoing involvement of industry consultants in curriculum development and the training of future researchers and regulators is particularly disturbing and, in our view, wholly inappropriate,” MacKenzie and colleagues wrote.

Mathuros knew of Walk’s association with Philip Morris, though other CRI scientists probably didn’t, the study said, citing a 1993 fax from Walk to the company’s lawyers.

The study is “full of innuendos and unsupported facts,” Mathuros said in an e-mailed response to questions from Bloomberg News. “Walk has never been involved in CRI research and has no influence on CRI research and educational programs. His part- involvement is teaching six hours per year and a very small part of a course. This involvement ceased in 2006.”

BP: Chulabhorn Research Institute? For some reason that sounds familiar and important.... As the name suggests it is not some mere government-funded research institute.

One of the authors, Ross "soon to be known as interefering foreigner who doesn't understand Thailand" MacKenzie has undertaken research about the tobacco industry in Thailand for at least the last 7 years. 

The report itself is available for free here and is extensively documented and foot-noted. Key excerpts:

A further source of Walk's claimed success in insinuating himself within the Thai scientific community was his consultancy work for the CRI: “[i]n this context, I am interacting not only with the key-staff of the Chulabhorn Research Institute including the Princess but also with high-ranked ministry officials being involved in the building project. I think that this support will open many doors for us” [104].

....

The royal connection makes any critical discussion of the institute within Thailand an extremely delicate matter. The King commands enormous public respect and affection, and is regarded as a semi-divine figure [163,164]. Public criticism of the monarchy remains off-limits, not least because the Thai state has aggressively used lèse-majesté - the proscription of any perceived insults to the monarchy - to protect the crown [165–167]. This prohibition has resulted in a near total absence of any critical analysis of the royal family.

...

  Thailand's political system places a particular premium on securing close relationships with key individuals, and indeed the successes of the country's remarkable tobacco control movement owe much to the personal connections of key health advocates [176]. It is clearly difficult to assess the validity or consequences of Walk's claim to have developed links with “high-ranked ministry officials” [104] but the achievement of a clear, albeit indirect, link with Thailand's powerful and revered royal family is of real national significance.

...

The association of a research institute that enjoys royal patronage with the world's largest cigarette corporation contrasts starkly with Prince Mahidol's status as the “father of modern medicine and public health of Thailand” [177].

BP: Interesting.... Strongly advise you read the whole report and form your own opinions. 

That is also Dr. Khunying Mathuros Ruchirawat. Walk was a Teaching Faculty for a course offered by CRI in 2005 - see here. Walk is currently a Visting Academic as part of a joint program between AIT, Mahidol and CRI.

Der Spiegel on the PAD:

The airport occupiers and their supporters are revolting against a democratically elected government whose political base consists of the poor rice farmers of northeastern Thailand. They are leading the fight for a middle-class minority with allegiance to the king and pro-military views, which calls itself the "revolution of the middle class." If it comes into power, it will do away with democracy and allow only one-third of the representatives of the people to be elected by the people. This comes as no surprise, given the fact the representatives of this segment of society lost the last four elections.

These "retro radicals," as the Zurich foreign policy think tank ISN has dubbed them, also believe it possible the royal family could support them in their crusade.

BP: That is a new one.

btw, on Thaksin and his support in the Northeast, the article notes:

In Isaan, Thailand's northeast, where Thaksin's party has scored reliable victories, different reasons for the public's support of the government come to light.

"Before Thaksin was elected, a dusty path led to our village," says rice and vegetable farmer Wat Chaiteh, 57, "but less than a year after he became prime minister, the first bulldozers arrived and built an asphalt road." There are 240 houses in his village, Ban Nong Bua, 13 kilometers (eight miles) west of the provincial capital Udon Thani and about 40 kilometers (25 miles) from the border to Laos.

During the harvest, he is in the fields by 5 a.m. every day to cultivate the four-and-a-half hectares (11 acres) his family owns. He also works as a day laborer on other farms or on construction sites in Bangkok. Nevertheless, he barely earns more than the equivalent of €120 ($155) a month. He counts himself fortunate that his children no longer live at home, and that they occasionally send money from the city.

The farmers' lives improved somewhat under Thaksin. The former prime minister introduced low-cost health insurance, had roads and schools built and scholarships set up, paving the way for the underprivileged to attend universities, sometimes even abroad.

Thanks to a microloan program, farmer Wat was able to borrow money. He would occasionally borrow €100 ($130), and sometimes slightly more. He invested the money in cattle and has since paid off the loans [BP: What no mobile phone purchase?]. He now fears that these achievements could be wiped out if the supposed Bangkok democrats come into power. "I am afraid," says Wat, "that we will lose everything."

"The opposition is lying when it claims that Thaksin bought all the votes of the people here," says Hong Thong, the host of a radio show on 97.5, a pro-government station in Udon Thani. "When we have elections here, all major parties show up and hand out a little money to the people. The people accept it, but then they vote as they please." Hong notes that there is no law that prohibits the government from building roads and promising the people improvements.

She fears that Thailand's devastatingly wide gap between the rich and the poor will only add fuel to the power struggle. "I don't know how long the people here in the northeast will continue to stand by as these yellow political gangsters in Bangkok simply take the law into their own hands."

BP: Communicating with journalists and others who have travelled to the Northeast this year there are very strong feelings of support for Thaksin. It is not TRT/PPP/Puea Thai or the local candidate, it is for Thaksin. This is why many MPs won't jump ship to the Democrat coalition and why even Newin and some of the Newin faction are at pains to point out that they still respect Thaksin (they have nothing negative to say about him either), but there was an impasse and it was necessary to join with the Democrats. How much "traitor" rhetoric will Puea Thai whip up? They don't want the "traitors" to go unpunished, but also don't want to alienate all of them too much as well as some of them are likely to "return to the fold" at some point.

While the new government has reinstated the Police Chief, Abhisit says his stay may be short-lived:

Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva said Tuesday Pol General Phatcharawat Wongsuwan, who was reinstated as police commissioner-general would be faced legal action if he was found to be involved in the October 7 crackdown. 

Abhisit said he would discuss Phatcharawat's re-instatement with the Cabinet and wait for the result of the investigation by the National Human Righst Commission about the October 7 crackdown.

Phatcharawat is one of 23 officials being investigated for involvement in the event.

Abhisit said his government would decide on the matter in a straightforward manner without taking into account who is a brother of whom.

Phatcharawat had denied that his reinstatement had anything to do with his elder brother, Pravit, becoming Defence minister.

Phatcharawat was in charge on October 7, when Bangkok saw a series of clashes between police and the People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD) near Parliament.

BP: If he was in charge, was he then not involved? You note the fact that he (this applies to tothers too) didn't do anything to stop the protesters taking over the airports does not appear to be something that would cause him to be removed.

.... in Iceland:

Thousands of Icelanders took to the street in violent protests in Rekjavik, demanding the resignation of Prime Minister Geir Haarde and central bank governor David Oddsson in the wake of the country's complete financial collapse.

Thousands of Icelanders demonstrated in Reykjavik on Saturday demanding the resignation of Prime Minister Geir Haarde and Central Bank Governor David Oddsson for failing to stop a financial meltdown in the country. 

It was the latest in a series of protests in the capital since the financial meltdown that crippled the island's economy. 

Hordur Torfason, a well-known troubadour [BP: a singer] in Iceland and the main organiser of the protests, said the protests would continue until the government stepped down.

 

"They don't have our trust and they are no longer legitimate," Torfason said as the crowds gathered in the drizzle before the Althing, the Icelandic parliament.

 

A separate group of 200-300 people gathered in front of the city's main police station demanding the release of a young protester being held there, Icelandic media reported.

 

Police in riot gear used pepper spray to drive back an attempt to free the protester during which several windows at the police station were shattered. The protester was later released after a fine he had been sentenced to pay was paid.

 BP: Damn police state! They should have let the protesters take over the parliament!

The Nation:

PM's Office Minister Virachai Virameteekul Monday denied that he had donated Bt80 million to the Democrat Party in exchange for his Cabinet seat.

With shaky voice and tears in his eyes, Virachai told reporters at the Government House that he was hurt by attacks that he was selected for the Cabinet portfolio just because he donated the money to the paryt.

"I've never given Bt80 million to the Democrat either openly or covertly," Virachai said.

"You won't understand how it feel to face what has been happening to me during the past few days if you don't experience it yourself," he told reporters, pausing a few times during his words.

BP: Classic political theatre.

There has been a major focus on Finance Minister Korn (AFP; Reuters) and Foreign Minister Kasit (AFP). Some brief mention of the Commerce Minister's former role. 

This tidbit is interesting:

Meanwhile, Chavarat Charnvirakul, 72, a former Thaksin supporter who jumped fence to the Democrats, was rewarded with the Interior Minister's portfolio. Chavarat was a deputy prime minister in the previous administration led by Thaksin's brother-in-law Somchai Wongsawat.

Chavarat is a former businessman who founded one of Thailand's biggest construction companies, Sino-Thai Engineering and Construction Plc, which was commissioned to build several government projects, including Bangkok's Suvarnabhumi international airport.

BP: Kasit has mentioned the airport corruption, well given Chavarat and many of the others connected to the Newin faction and other ex-TRT people have jumped ship, will the PAD outrage at them continue?

Vasit Dejkunchorn, a retired police general who has served as a royal aide to His Majesty the King for many years (and head of Palace Security in 1973) had an op-ed Matichon last week entitled "Lese Majeste". Below is a summarised (almost full translation in most parts - any suggested corrections comment away):

ผมพยายามอดทนและไม่แสดงความเห็นเกี่ยวกับการที่หนังสือพิมพ์ต่างประเทศภาษาอังกฤษบางฉบับ ตีพิมพ์บทความหมิ่นประมาทพระบาทสมเด็จพระเจ้าอยู่หัว ผมพยายามคิดว่าผู้เขียน แม้บางคนจะเป็นถึงศาสตราจารย์ของมหาวิทยาลัยมีชื่อ และอาจจะได้ศึกษาเรื่องประวัติศาสตร์ สังคมและการเมืองของประเทศไทยบ้าง แต่ก็ยังไม่มีความรู้มากจริง ไม่ลึกซึ้งพอที่จะเข้าใจความรู้สึกของคนไทย คนไทยซึ่งมีบรรพบุรุษที่เกิดและตายมาในเมืองไทยเป็นเวลาหลายชั่วคน และบรรพบุรุษเหล่านั้นอยู่ใต้ร่มโพธิสมภารของพระมหากษัตริย์ไทยมาเป็นเวลานานหลายร้อยปี

[I have tried to be patient and not express my opinions over what foreign magazine(s) has published and which is lese majeste [defamation of HM the King].  I try to think that the writer who is a professor at a well-known university and may have studied about Thai history, society and politics to some extent, but doesn't have that much knowledge. Not that deep so that he can understand the feelings of Thais. Thais whose ancestors who were born and died in Thailand for many generations. Those ancestors have been living under HM the King's protection in Thailand for many generations]

แต่ในที่สุดผมก็อดคิดไม่ได้ว่า คนไทยทุกวันนี้อ่านหนังสือภาษาอังกฤษออกและเขียนหนังสือภาษาอังกฤษได้กันมากขึ้น หลายคนไปเรียนในประเทศที่ใช้ภาษาอังกฤษจนได้ปริญญากลับมา (แม้จะยังใช้ภาษาอังกฤษผิดๆ ถูกๆ อยู่ก็ตาม) แต่การไปเรียนในต่างประเทศ และการได้อ่านหนังสือภาษาต่างประเทศ อาจจะทำให้คนไทยบางคนหลงเชื่อตำราที่เขียนโดยนักวิชาการฝรั่งที่ไม่รู้จักเมืองไทยจริง หรืออาจจะเคลิบเคลิ้มตามข้อเขียนหรือบทความ เช่นอย่างที่กำลังได้รับการพิมพ์เผยแพร่อยู่ในขณะนี้ ยิ่งเมื่อได้ทราบข่าวว่า คนไทยบางคนที่เคยไปเรียนต่างประเทศออกมาพูดพาดพิง "เบื้องบน" และอ้างว่าสื่อต่างชาติรู้หรือเข้าใจเบื้องหลังของเหตุการณ์ที่เกิดขึ้นในเมืองไทยด้วยแล้ว ผมก็เห็นว่าโรคปัญญาอ่อนของฝรั่งระบาดถึงคนไทยเสียแล้ว และควรที่ผมจะแสดงความเห็นเกี่ยวกับเรื่องนี้บ้าง

[but now I can't stop thinking that Thais today can read and understand English in increasing numbers. Many have studied overseas and used English until they graduated, but studying overseas and reading foreign publications may cause some Thais to believe books written by foreign academics who don't really know Thailand or cause them to be in a dreamy state/absent-minded about what is written such as the criticism we see now. Especially since knowing that some Thais who studied overseas have been making reference to the "higher authorities" and state that foreign newspapers know or understand what is happening in the background of Thailand now. I have seen the feeble-mindedness/retardation of farangs spread to Thais and so it is necessary I give my thoughts on this issue].

ทั้งนี้ไม่เกี่ยวกับคนไทยที่มีเงินไปจ้างให้ฝรั่งเขียน เพื่อให้คนอ่านโง่ๆ เข้าใจว่าเป็นฝีมือของฝรั่ง ซึ่งก็อาจจะมีเหมือนกัน

It is not related to Thais  hiring foreigners to write so that stupid people can read it. [I] understand that it is the handiwork of foreigners who might have this as well [this = hiring of people to write???]

เกี่ยวกับพระบาทสมเด็จพระเจ้าอยู่หัวนั้น ความจริงไม่จำเป็นที่จะต้องอุตส่าห์ไปเรียนจนจบมาจากต่างประเทศ คนไทยที่เรียนไม่ถึงชั้นมัธยมแต่เติบโตมาในเมืองไทยก็รู้ว่า พระบาทสมเด็จพระเจ้าอยู่หัวไม่แต่จะทรงอุทิศพระวรกายให้แก่คนไทยและเมืองไทยมาตลอดรัชกาล เป็นเวลานานกว่า 60 ปีเท่านั้น แต่การอุทิศพระวรกายนั้นยังทรงทำด้วยความอดทนและตรากตรำ อย่างที่ไม่มีประมุขของประเทศใดในโลกเสมอเหมือน ผมได้เคยรับราชการใกล้พระยุคลบาทอยู่เพียงไม่ถึง 12 ปีเท่านั้น แต่หลังจากนั้นมาจนถึงวันนี้ ผมยังติดตามศึกษาพระราชกรณียกิจอยู่ จนผมแน่ใจว่า การอุทิศพระวรกายยังคงทรงทำอยู่อย่างไม่หยุดยั้ง แม้จะถูกจำกัดลงเพราะทรงพระประชวรก็ตาม ไม่จำเป็นที่จะต้องทำการสำรวจวิเคราะห์วิจัยอย่างใดเลย ดูแต่สีหน้าและแววตาของคนไทยทั่วประเทศที่ออกมาชุมนุมกันในวันที่มีพิธีเฉลิมฉลองครบรอบ 60 ปีของการครองสิริราชสมบัติเมื่อวันที่ 9 มิถุนายน พ.ศ.2549 ก็จะเห็นและรู้ว่า คนไทยทั้งชาติตระหนักในพระมหากรุณาธิคุณและจงรักภักดีในพระยุคลบาทเพียงใด

[It is not necessary to graduate from overseas, many Thai have studied only have yet to finish primary school, but have grown up in Thailand know that HM the King has sacrificed/dedicated himself for Thais and Thailand for more than 60 years. What he has sacrificed/how he has dedicated himself is such that no Head of State in the world can compare. I still keep up with what HM the King is doing. There is no need to do a survey, just look at the faces and into the eyes of Thai throughout the country who gathered in June 2006 to commenorate His 60th anniversary on the throne. You know then how Thais feel.]

เกี่ยวกับการหมิ่นประมาทฝ่าละอองธุลีพระบาท ทั้งโดยสื่อต่างประเทศและโดยคนไทยนั้น เห็นจะไม่มีอะไรที่แสดงความรู้สึกของพระบาทสมเด็จพระเจ้าอยู่หัวได้ดีไปกว่าพระราชดำรัสที่พระราชทานแก่ผู้ที่ไปเฝ้าทูลละอองธุลีพระบาทเพื่อถวายชัยมงคลในโอกาสวันเฉลิมพระชนมพรรษา เมื่อวันที่ 4 ธันวาคม 2548 ที่ศาลาดุสิดาลัย สวนจิตรลดา

วันนั้น พ.ต.ท.ทักษิณ ชินวัตร นายกรัฐมนตรีในขณะนั้น เป็นผู้กราบบังคมทูลถวายชัยมงคล ในนามของผู้ที่ไปเฝ้าฯ ซึ่งมีผมรวมอยู่ด้วย

พระราชดำรัสตอนหนึ่งมีว่า "...ความจริงก็ต้องวิจารณ์ (พระองค์) บ้างเหมือนกัน และก็ไม่กลัวว่าถ้าใครจะมาวิจารณ์ว่าทำไม่ดีตรงนั้น ตรงนั้น จะได้รู้..."

On lese majeste you have the King's words from his address on December 4, 2005 where he said "But in fact, there must be criticisms sometimes. And [I] am not afraid. If someone criticizes me where I do wrong, I will know." [BP: see here for the full speech and translation of the speech adapted from that translation]

เกี่ยวกับการวิจารณ์พระมหากษัตริย์ ซึ่งโดยทั่วไปถือเป็นการ "ละเมิด" พระมหากษัตริย์นั้น ตรัสว่า "...ให้ละเมิดได้ แต่ถ้าเขาละเมิดผิด เขาก็ถูกประชาชนบ้อม เป็นเรื่องขอให้เขารู้ว่าวิจารณ์อย่างไร ถ้าเขาวิจารณ์ถูกก็ไม่ว่า แต่ถ้าวิจารณ์ผิด ไม่ดี แต่เมื่อบอกว่าไม่ให้วิจารณ์ ละเมิดไม่ได้ เพราะรัฐธรรมนูญว่าอย่างนั้น ลงท้ายพระมหากษัตริย์ก็เลยลำบาก แย่ อยู่ในฐานะลำบาก"

On criticism of HM the King or known as violating, HM the King stated " when they say to criticize is considered violating the king, let them violate. But if they violate wrongly, they get… bombed by the people. The thing is, I ask to know how they criticize. If they criticize rightly, no problem. But if [they] criticized wrongly, no good, but when they say that there can be no criticism, no violation because the Constitution states so then HM the King is in a difficult position"

ในส่วนที่เกี่ยวกับการฟ้องร้องและจับกุมผู้ต้องหาว่าหมิ่นประมาทพระมหากษัตริย์นั้น รับสั่งว่า "...นักกฎหมายก็ชอบให้ฟ้อง ให้จับเข้าคุก อันนี้นักกฎหมายเขาสอน สอนนายกฯบอกว่าต้องฟ้อง ต้องลงโทษ ก็ขอสอนนายกฯ ใครบอกว่าให้ลงโทษ อย่าลงโทษเขา ลงโทษไม่ดี ไม่ใช่นายกฯเดือดร้อน แต่พระมหากษัตริย์เดือดร้อน.....แต่ถ้านายกฯเกิดให้ลงโทษ แย่เลย แล้วนักกฎหมายต้องการให้ลงโทษคนที่ด่าพระมหากษัตริย์ ทำไป ทำมา...เขาด่านายกฯ ถ้าด่านายกฯ นายกฯเดือดร้อนไหม ไม่ควรเดือดร้อน แต่ถ้าด่านายกฯ พระมหากษัตริย์ก็ไม่เดือดร้อน เพราะว่าเป็นเรื่องนายกฯ แต่ถ้าเขาด่าพระมหากษัตริย์ นายกฯเดือดร้อน เพราะต้องเป็นคน

จัดการ ยุ่งอย่างนี้..."

On prosecutions and people being detained "Now lawyers like to prosecute, to put in jail. Lawyers advise… advise the prime minister, telling him to… to… to sue, to punish. [I] advise the prime minister that whoever… whoever advises [you] to punish… do not to punish them [the offenders]. To punish is not good. In the end, it’s not the prime minister that is troubled, but the king...But if the prime minister  punishes them, then it’s terrible. And lawyers want to punish those who insult the king. Eventually… okay… They insult the PM, if they insult the PM, is the PM troubled? Shouldn’t be. If they insult the PM, the king isn’t… isn’t… isn’t troubled, because that’s the PM’s business. But if they insult the king, the prime minister is troubled, because he has to deal with it".

ตอนหนึ่งของพระราชดำรัสองค์นั้น เกี่ยวกับชาวต่างประเทศโดยตรง รับสั่งว่า "...แต่มีฝ่ายชาวต่างประเทศ มีบ่อยๆ ละเมิดพระเจ้าอยู่หัว ละเมิดเดอะคิง แล้วก็หัวเราะเยาะว่าเดอะคิงของไทยแลนด์ พวกคนไทยทั้งหลายนี่ เป็นคนแย่ ละเมิดไม่ได้ ในที่สุดถ้าละเมิดไม่ได้ก็เป็นคนเสีย" และอีกตอนหนึ่งว่า "...ต่างประเทศเขาบอกว่าเมืองไทยนี่ พูดวิจารณ์พระมหากษัตริย์ไม่ได้...ก็เข้าคุก มีที่เข้าคุก เดือดร้อนพระมหากษัตริย์ ต้องบอกว่าเข้าคุกแล้วต้องให้อภัย ที่เขาด่าเราอย่างหนัก ฝรั่งเขาบอกว่าในเมืองไทยนี่ พระมหากษัตริย์ถูกด่า ต้องเข้าคุก ที่จริงควรเข้าคุก แต่เพราะฝรั่งบอกอย่างนั้น ก็ไม่ให้เข้า ไม่มีใครกล้าเอาคนที่ด่าพระมหากษัตริย์เข้าคุก เพราะพระมหากษัตริย์เดือดร้อน เขาหาว่าพระมหากษัตริย์เป็นคนที่ไม่ดี อย่างน้อยที่สุดก็เป็นคนขี้จั๊กจี้ ใครว่าอะไรสักนิด ก็บอกให้เข้าคุก ที่จริงพระมหากษัตริย์ไม่เคยบอกให้เข้าคุก ตั้งแต่สมัยรัชกาลก่อนๆ เป็นกบฏ ก็ยังไม่จับใส่คุก ไม่ลงโทษ รัชกาลที่ 6 ท่านไม่ลงโทษ ไม่ได้ลงโทษผู้ที่เป็นกบฏ มาจนถึงต่อมา รัชกาลที่ 9 ใครเป็นกบฏ ก็ไม่เคยมี แท้ๆ ที่จริงก็ทำแบบเดียวกัน ไม่ให้เข้าคุก ให้ปล่อย หรือถ้าเข้าคุกแล้วก็ให้ปล่อย ถ้าไม่เข้าก็ไม่ฟ้อง เพราะเดือดร้อน ผู้ที่ถูกด่าเป็นคนเดือดร้อน" (ส่วนที่เน้นด้วยตัวพิมพ์หนาและขีดเส้นใต้เป็นของ

ผมเอง)

At one point, HM the King mentions about foreigners "There are foreigners who often criticise the king and laugh about the King of Thailand. All the Thais cannot criticize". In another part "Foreigners say in Thailand one can’t criticize the king, that if they criticize and go to jail. This troubles the king, who must say, after the jailing, to forgive them for insulting me severely. Farangs say in Thailand, when the king gets insulted, [the offender] must go to jail. Indeed, they should go jail. But because the farangs say so, [we] won’t let them go to jail. Nobody dares put the guy who insults the king in jail, because the king is troubled. They say the king is no good, or at least excitable. Excitable. Somebody criticizes [him] a little, [he] says to put them in jail. In fact, the king’s never said to put them in jail.

From previous reigns, even rebels were not put in jail, not punished. King Rama VI didn’t punish, didn’t punish those who rebelled. Until later, [under] King Rama IX, whoever rebelled, which had never really occurred anyway, were not put in jail, [but] were set free. Or if… if they were already in jail, they were set free. If they were not in jail, [they] were not… not… not prosecuted. Because [it’s] troublesome. The one who is insulted is the one who is troubled.

พระราชดำรัสเพียงเท่าที่คัดมาบางตอนนี้ ฝรั่งบางคนอาจจะอ่านออก แต่ไม่เข้าใจ เพราะฝรั่งมันมีแต่ปริญญาอ่านออกเขียนได้ แต่ไม่สามารถที่จะรู้ซึ้งในความเป็นไทยได้ แต่พระราชดำรัส และโดยเฉพาะพระราชกรณียกิจตลอดรัชกาล ที่แสดงให้เห็นพระราชอุตสาหะและการอุทิศพระวรกายให้แก่คนไทยและเมืองไทยอย่างปราศจากเงื่อนไขนั้น น่าจะเพียงพอที่จะทำให้คนไทยที่มีเลือดไทย เข้าใจความเป็นไทย มีจิตสำนึก และมีความรับผิดชอบ (ไม่ใช่เพียงแต่อาศัยเมืองไทยเป็นที่เกิดและมีแต่การศึกษาเท่านั้น) ตระหนักในน้ำพระราชหฤทัยของพระบาทสมเด็จพระเจ้าอยู่หัว ตระหนักว่าทรงรู้สึกอย่างไรกับผู้ที่วิจารณ์หรือ "ละเมิด" ฝ่าละอองธุลีพระบาท

From the excerpted parts, some foreigners may be able to read it, but not understand as foreigners only have degrees to read and write, but they cannot know Thainess. However, the royal address and from HM the King's activities and unconditional sacrificie/dedication should be sufficient for Thais with Thai blood to know Thainess. To have good sense and responsibility (not just residing in Thailand as your birthplace and to study). Be aware of all what HM the King has done. Be aware of [his] feelings about those who criticise or violate.

ถ้าไม่ตระหนัก แต่ยังหลงคิดอยู่ว่า นักเขียนนักวิชาการฝรั่งรู้จักเมืองไทยและพระมหากษัตริย์ไทยดี และหลงเชื่อมัน ก็แปลว่า การศึกษาที่ได้มาทั้งจากในเมืองไทยและต่างประเทศนั้นไร้ประโยชน์ ช่วยอะไรไม่ได้ เพราะจิตภาวะเสื่อม ตกต่ำ หรือวิปริตเสียแล้ว ใครที่เป็นเพื่อนฝูงญาติพี่น้องควรหาทางเอาตัวไปบำบัดโดยเร็ว

If [you] are not aware and believe that foreign academics know Thailand the King better and believe them then this means that the education you received from within Thailand and abroad is worthless. It doesn't help as your mind is becoming degenerate, it is in decline, or you are abnormal/unhinged. Those who are relatives or friends of such a person should take them to seek treatement.

"อย่าถือคนบ้า อย่าว่าคนเมา" เป็นสุภาษิตไทยบทหนึ่ง แต่ควรรู้ว่า คนไทยที่ "ถือ" คนบ้านั้นมีให้เห็นอยู่เสมอ

"Don't mind the mad, don't blame the drunk" is a Thai proverb, but you should know that Thais that "respect" the mad are always there. 

BP: Hmm, what can one say? Apologies for it being long, but it was a unique insight into elite thinking which deserved attention.

h/t to a reader.

Thanong in The Nation:

He might also run into trouble with the UK authorities due to his dubious financial transactions, probably one of the reasons that his visa was denied. Thaksin bought Manchester City Football Club for more than ฃ80 million (Bt4.3 billion) and sold the club to Sheikh Mansour of Abu Dhabi for ฃ210 million. That deal raised the eyebrows of the British authorities. What was "Sinatra" trying to do? That prompted them to take a careful look at his financial dealings.

Arabianbusiness.com has recently revealed that the UK froze Thaksin's assets amounting to $4 billion. "The UK froze his reputed $4 billion of assets, forcing him to sell Manchester City to Abu Dhabi's Sheikh Mansour. To add to his troubles, his UK visa was revoked - oh, and his wife divorced him last week," the Arabianbusiness report said.

Strangely enough, nobody followed up on this story to either confirm or deny whether Thaksin's $4 billion has been frozen by the British authorities. That is no small amount. It is almost Bt140 billion, more than the stimulus package that new prime minister Abhisit Vejjajiva plans to pump into rural areas during this time of economic hardship.

Writing his opinion piece, "Bhumibol, Thailand's Remarkable King", in the Los Angeles Times of December 11, W Scott Thompson also confirmed that Thaksin's assets had been frozen by the UK authorities. He wrote: "Meantime, the British have frozen Thaksin's assets in Britain and revoked his visa. So Thaksin's other asset - his rural popularity - can only decline."

BP: Ok, if the British authorities seized Thaksin's assets (if you were really believe he kept 140 billion baht in a British bank) then why did they also not seize Manchester City? You know that was one type of asset, why not seize that too?  Also, why has not a single UK paper mentioned the seizing of Thaksin's assets? The only real source for this the Arabian News. Mr. Thompson was writing an op-ed piece. It was not an original report.  God knows how many times Thanong or his fellow writers at The Nation will repeat this without even evaluating how little sense it makes. A more likely scenario is that someone confused the seizing of the assets by the Thai authorities with the UK seizing assets.

BP was pondering what vast assets of the Bangkok Pundit media empire could be used to find out. An investigative report? Sending someone to the Middle East? What could BP do that The Nation couldn't? It was settled on the task of writing a brief e-mail to the author of the article for Arabaian News to ask "Are you sure it was the UK which froze his assets? Thailand froze his assets (over US$2billion), but you were the first to state that the UK did". Mr Bhoyrul kindly responded very promptly (and authorized disclosure of his response in a subsequent e-mail). Below is a screenshot of his respone:

BP: Thanong can always e-mail to check.

The Age has an op-ed on Harry:

Assuming that his health and mental state are not compromised, it is likely that, as a foreigner, Nicolaides may be pardoned and expelled from the country. But he has already spent nearly four months in prison. And if he is released and allowed to leave Thailand, the lese majeste laws will remain.

Every country has its own laws, and we expect tourists and expatriates to respect the laws of the country that they are in. But does this fact excuse silence in the face of abuses and a failure to protect fundamental human rights?

If we are willing to criticise the domestic laws of other countries, or to make principled comments about capital punishment, freedom of speech, freedom of the press, and democracy, should this Thai law be above criticism?

Shouldn't the Australian Government and media do more to defend the rights of Nicolaides and any Thai who has artistic intentions or a commitment to basic freedoms?

To put the imprisonment of Nicolaides and the weak response of the international media in context, ask yourself these questions: Would you be outraged if a Thai student in Australia was imprisoned for writing a novel, or for posting a blog that made fun of an Australian prime minister or Australia's own "royal family" — Nicole Kidman and Keith Urban? Would you accept laws in Australia, China, or the US that protected a political elite from any scrutiny, even in fiction?

George Orwell once said: "If liberty means anything at all, it means the right to tell people what they do not want to hear." Has Nicolaides done anything beyond expressing this basic freedom?

As a student Kevin Rudd wrote a thesis on human rights in China and called for the release of Chinese dissidents. As Australian Prime Minister, Kevin Rudd has been silent on the plight of an Australian citizen imprisoned on preposterous grounds. And the Australian media have been complicit in this silence.

BP: Watch out The Age, no doubt some poorly argued letter to the editor will follow from the Thai Foreign Ministry. Harry should fire his Australian lawyer and get the writer of this op-ed, a media student, to argue his case. 

h/t New Mandala

btw, BP is just waiting for someone to file a police complaint against Thanong and anyone else for insulting Bush, a breach of the Criminal Code in Thailand - actually Kasit at the FCCT also made a number of remarks about Bush so he can be included too. BP will dismiss critics of such complaints as those "who don't understand Thailand" and "have no appreciation for Thailand's customs".*

*ok, it will only make a point on how absurd the laws are. It would be interesting though as if Bush then made a statement saying he allows criticism, what would the Thai authorities do then ? HM the King made such a statement in 2005 and well the the authorities have paid no heed to it. 

Have a few different things to say about Kasit, but here is the first post on the issue.

The Bangkok Post:

The Democrat-led government is under criticism from its members over its plan to appoint former career diplomat Kasit Piromya as foreign minister because of his support for the actions of the PAD.

Democrat MPs have raised concern about Mr Kasit's suitability to serve in the Abhisit cabinet, a senior party source said. 

Given his close affiliation with the People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD), the former diplomat could be more of a liability than an asset, the source said. 

The source said the Democrats would be compelled to answer questions about Mr Kasit's role in the PAD street protests. 

Despite opposition within the party, Democrat leader and Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva favours Mr Kasit. He told party members he needed a foreign minister who could start work immediately he takes office. 

Mr Kasit appeared as a regular guest speaker at PAD rallies which demanded the removal of former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra. 

More worrying for some Democrats was his recent speech about the PAD's takeover of Suvarnabhumi airport. 

Mr Kasit hailed the shutdown of the capital's city's international airport, which left over 200,000 passengers stranded, as a "new innovation for public protests". 

Foreign Ministry officials also disagreed with Mr Kasit holding the portfolio. They warned his hardline political stance could damage the prime minister's efforts to heal the nation. 

They were also upset by Mr Kasit's criticism of the ministry's handling of the Preah Vihear issue. 

He joined other PAD speakers in accusing the ministry of helping Cambodia get the ancient Hindu temple listed as a World Heritage site. 

The ministry said it tried to protect Thai interests by making sure the listing would not affect Thai territory.

AFP has more:

"I want to tell him (Thaksin) he will not win this fight. We will not step back," Mr Kasit said at a protest rally this year near Government House, which the group besieged in late August.

Mr Kasit has defended his role in the protests, saying he joined the demonstrators "to help society have good governance".

"Joining the PAD was not a sin because millions of people also joined it to help uproot corruption," he was quoted as saying in The Bangkok Post over the weekend.

Mr Kasit, a graduate of Georgetown University, began his career at the ministry in 1968 and has held ambassadorial roles in Germany, Japan and the US.

The Telegraph:

Thailand's new foreign minister has described last month's hijacking of Bangkok's main international airport as "a lot of fun.

Kasit Piromya, 64, will be sworn in on Monday as Thailand's new foreign minister. His job of rebuilding Thailand's battered international image will not be helped by the fact that he was a prominent supporter of the protests, and still is.

More than 350, 000 travellers were stranded three weeks ago when a few thousand demonstrators from the ultraroyalist People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD) stormed the airport. Investor confidence has been badly shaken and analysts say that lost tourism business could cost 1 million jobs.

But Mr Kasit told an audience of astonished diplomats and foreign journalists on Friday that the protests were "a lot of fun".

"The food was excellent, the music was excellent," he explained.

...

Mr Kasit was a regular speaker at the protests, which helped bring the pro-Thaksin government down. His Democrat Party has now formed a new coalition, although they were defeated in each of three general elections held so far this decade.

"Look at it [the PAD protests] as pushing the process of democratisation forward," suggested Mr Kasit.

...

It is widely reported that senior army figures were instrumental in persuading MPs to switch sides to the new coalition. Asked what role the army played in bringing his party to power Mr Kasit said, "I don't know".

...

Foreign Minister Kasit berated Western diplomats and the foreign media for not being more sympathetic to the PAD's cause.

"You should be happy that for the first time ordinary people came out in full force to oppose corruption," he said. "If society has to be changed it has a price." The PAD employed "security guards" armed with clubs, guns and explosives but Mr Kasit criticised foreigners for dwelling on the movement's violent tendencies.

"People said we were armed," he complained. "My wife used to go every evening. What was she armed with? Only food and medicine!"

BP: And the others were not armed? There is a reason he was acting as a kind of de facto spokesman for the PAD to the foreign media is that he is quoteable. But like Jakrapob his mouth will be his downfall.

btw, that The Telegraph article is cited by Matichon whose has Kasit saying the ai"สนุกมาก"

h/t to a reader for The Telegraph article.

AP:

The palm-fringed island of Samui normally fills up for the holidays, but what stands out these days is its emptiness.

The sprawling Tongsai Bay resort, where guests are shuttled around in golf carts, has reduced hours for staff and even installed lower-wattage light bulbs to reduce electricity bills to cut costs amid the slowdown, said assistant manager Chonlatee Nakamadee.

"We can't believe how quiet it is here," said Karen Jack, a 37-year-old secretary from London. "There's been a couple of nights when we've been the only people in the restaurant."

The hangover from political unrest including an eight-day blockade of Bangkok's airport is not going away: Cancellations are pouring in from around the world — just as the high season is starting and the economy is slowing amid the global financial meltdown.

Tourism authorities predict business will be worse next year than after the tsunami in December 2004. Airlines and luxury hotels have slashed rates, some offering two nights for the price of one. High-level staff at one Bangkok hotel have taken 25 percent to 30 percent salary cuts.

Capital especially hard hit

The slowdown could push Thailand's economy into recession. The government forecast a contraction of up to 1 percent in the first quarter of 2009 and zero growth in the second quarter. Tourism brought in about $16 billion in revenue last year, about 6.5 percent of the country's gross domestic product.

Bangkok, the capital city, is especially hard hit.

The loudest sound in the elegant lobby of The Peninsula is a toy train chugging through a gingerbread village near a 28-foot Christmas tree. The hotel has temporarily closed its bar and two of its six restaurants.

"The decorations are beautiful. It's just a pity there aren't more people to see it," said Charles Morris, general manager of the 370-room hotel, where the occupancy rate sank below 10 percent earlier this month.

The lebua hotel, where occupancy is 16 percent compared with 80 percent this time last year, has stopped all advertising until June. "All expatriate staff working here have taken 25 to 30 percent salary cuts — all of us," said Deepak Ohri, chief executive of the luxury hotel.

Thai hotels typically average 85 percent occupancy during the holidays, but many in Bangkok are less than 20 percent full, said Juthaporn Rerngronasa, a deputy governor at the Tourism Authority of Thailand.

...

The biggest falloff is among Asians, who accounted for more than half of the 14.8 million visitors to Thailand last year. Some 90 percent of Japanese and Chinese travelers have canceled upcoming trips, said Apichart Sankary, president of the 1,300-member Association of Thai Travel Agents.

The Times (UK):

Prices of holidays in Thailand are to be cut in a bid to restore confidence following recent political unrest. The number of visitors has fallen by an estimated 50% since the week-long protests that closed Bangkok’s airports, and Thailand’s tourism authority says the episode will cost the country 3m visitors this season. To entice travellers to return, hotels are offering rooms for as little as half the published price.

It remains to be seen, though, how many will be brave enough to take advantage of the offers. Hoteliers have expressed fears that supporters of the ousted prime minister, Somchai Wongsawat, will cause yet more disruption, and the Thai ambassador, Kitti Wasinondh, was unable to rule out a repeat of the airport occupation. “Nobody can guarantee there will be no political tension,” he said. “But... it is my conviction the Thailand government will not let the Bangkok airports close again.”

Those who are willing to travel to Thailand should have no problem finding a bargain, said Chris Lee, of the long-haul specialist Travelmood. “The offers are flying in, no doubt about it,” he said. “Within the next week, both Thai Airways and EVA Air will be offering significant fare reductions to complement the great hotel deals coming up.”

BP: Nice of the ambassador although certainly, and despite the political troubles, it is a good time to buy a ticket. The military won't let the "reds" take the airport and the "yellows" won't be doing so again anytime soon with the Democrats in power - then again the problem for the average tourist is no one knows how long this government will last, what happens if things fall apart in 2 months and we have an election campaign and an election, then what?

The Nation:

Thammasat University's Faculty of Commerce and Accountancy said Abhisit had earlier announced strong opposition to Thaksin's political style but his Cabinet list showed he had used the same political methods as Thaksin, with Cabinet seats allocated to coalition parties in proportion to the number of MPs they muster. The Democrats have also allowed party financiers to have a say or control over government policies, it said.

"The way the new government is being formed is not one but many steps back for Thai politics. Cabinet seats are being given to people who are not qualified and knowledgeable but to capitalists and people who side with the People's Alliance for Democracy that toppled the Somchai government. Many ministers were MPs that the Democrats voted to expel. Only politicians who stick by their integrity and political ideology can stand on the political stage with grace,'' he said.

Dr Lertchai Sirichai, a lecturer at Walailak University, praised Democrat Party Phattalung MP Nipit Intarasombat for his public disclosure of the financial support given to the party by business tycoon Virachai Virameteekul, who is tipped to join the Abhisit Cabinet.

"What he did shows that no party can stop playing dirty politics. Capitalism is married to politics, and as a result mutual interest or reciprocity is inevitable,'' he said.

He predicted that the Democrat Party would face a heavy backlash from the revelation. "The party made a bid for power without taking into account public feeling. It is not going to be able to brave the political storm easily, and the opposition will definitely rock the government over the issue,'' he said.

Assistant Prof Dr Wichai Kanchanasuwan, a lecturer at Prince of Songkhla University, said that although many people accepted capitalism in politics, it was not right because it enabled businessmen to pursue vested interests.

"South Korea cut the vicious circle of business politics by banning the private sector from donating funds to political parties,'' he noted.

BP: BP is going to try to be polite, but what does the ajarn think will happen if we ban all corporate donations? We will then get senior executives donating the money. Thailand could then impose a lower cap on individual donations, but there are simply not enough people to make small donations. What will happen is the money will get through under the table. This is how most of the money is donated now anyway. At least now, we can even know some of the sources of where the money comes from.

The Nation:

A source from the Democrat Party said following reports of party infighting, Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva had tried to reach an understanding with MPs who were disappointed at not getting Cabinet posts to get them to stop their protest. They include Democrat Party Phitsanulok MP Juti Krairerk, Bangkok MP Ong-art Klampaiboon and Phattalung MP Nipit Intarasombat.

Nipit was so upset that he wanted to quit on Friday. Democrat Party chief adviser Chuan Leekpai persuaded Nipit over the phone not to quit as he had worked for the party for over 30 years.

The broken-hearted MPs decided to stay on after they were approached by Chuan and Abhisit, who gave them hope that they could make the Cabinet after a reshuffle if any ministers were found wanting.

Rumours circulated in the Democrat Party that non-politicians in the Cabinet list had paid up to Bt100 million for ministerial posts.

Abhisit reacted to the criticism that his Cabinet was marred by saying he had few choices and the party was forced to form a Cabinet that would bring political stability. "Once the government has that stability, it can deal with the political crises. We do not want to waste time on bargaining because the government has a lot of work ahead,'' he said.

He urged the public to give his government two or three months to prove that it could restore business confidence in the country. He said he understood disappointed MPs who had not got Cabinet posts, especially Nipit, because Phattalung people were proud of him and in high hopes that he would be a Cabinet member.

"It is normal for there to be people who are disappointed and people who are happy. I am confident that we can get over this problem,'' he said.

He denied allegations that the Democrats were dominated by party financiers. He said the party mobilised funds openly and reported donations to the Election Commission. "If that was true, I would not have come this far on the political path,'' he said.

BP: What is the chance the Democrats will be able to replace the coaliton ministers with their own? Not much, at best, there will your normal rotation of Ministers within the Democrat party.

The Nation in an editorial entitled "PM must rethink his Cabinet line-up":

Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva may have to spend time thinking seriously about what his mentor Chuan Leekpai would have said. It was reported that Chuan, a former prime minister and former Democrat Party leader, was not very happy about the Cabinet line-up of Abhisit. Abhisit said Chuan had declined to tell him about his dissatisfaction over the Cabinet line-up of the Democrat quota. Chuan's unhappy feeling was revealed at the meeting of Democrat MPs at a seminar in Koh Samui, Surat Thani. Abhisit urged Democrat MPs to tell him about their dissatisfaction instead of talking to reporters. He then said he had asked Chuan about his dissatisfaction after he learned from reports that Chuan was unhappy about the Cabinet line-up.

...

Chuan, like Abhisit, had to preside over a government of several coalition parties. Yet, Chuan managed to balance the power play and attracted good people to oversee the economic areas such as Dr Supachai Panitchpakdi and Tarrin Nimmanahaeminda, who did a thankless job in reviving the Thai economy after the financial crisis in 1997.

Abhisit is already facing criticism from both inside and outside the parties over the Cabinet line-up. Expectations from the new premier were huge due to his youthful image and his enthusiastic speech to restore confidence in the economy.

BP: Is this the main difference in terms of economic ministers between Chuan II and Abhisit I is that the Democrats had Commerce back then? The Chuan II economic team did a poor job though in explaining what they were doing. What is it with this romanticism that in a pre-Thaksin era that Cabinets were made up of competent ministers. Both the Chuan governments collapsed in corruption scandals as Chuan was ineffective in controlling his cabinet. Not sure whether Abhisit should really listen to his advice.

The only way the Democrats could govern was to get 20-30 MPs from PPP. They could only get them by offering "profitable" ministerships.  Abhisit can rethink his Cabinet, but then Suthep will tap him on his shoulder and remind him of all the deals done - if the deals aren't stuck too and Abhisit replaces some, all, or half of the coalition ministers with Democrats are outsiders, what is going to happen at the time of the no-confidence debate? Reality dictates idealism as always.

The intro:

THE OVERTHROW of the PPP government was justified on grounds its electoral success was based on vote-buying and hence illegitimate. Now the Democrats have been wafted into power by the divine intervention of Newin Chidchob. Should we laugh or cry? Newin is allegedly Thailand's most famous vote-buyer.

BP: Have a read of the whole thing.

Just as BP was to translate the Matichon article on this issue, The Nation does a fairly good job onf presenting the information:

The Democrat Party raked in almost Bt120 million in contributions last month, according to its report to the Election Commission. 

Among the largest benefactors was secretary-general Suthep Thaugsuban, now also deputy prime minister. He gave Bt5.51 million  while his son Tan pitched in with Bt8 million.

Donors were mostly party MPs, chipping in Bt5,000-Bt10,000 each [BP: You don't get most of your donations in 5,000-10,000 baht donations from your MPs]. However, some were more lavish, gifting over Bt1 million. They included Thaworn Senneam from Songkhla, now deputy interior minister, Apimongkol Sonagul [BP: 10 million] and Ong-art Klampaiboon from Bangkok, Prakob Chirakiti, on the party-list, Chumpol Julsai from Chumphon, Thepthai Senpong from Nakhon Si Thammarat and Nataphol Teepsuwan, the party's director.

Among corporate patrons, Saint Louise Holding presented Bt3 million. Other companies included Preuksa Real Estate, Pairojsompongpanitch Partnership, True Vision, Major Cineplex Group, ATN Property and Pyramid Concrete.

The party held a fund-raising event in November when it was the sole opposition party. From January to November, the Democrats collected a total of Bt150,346,000.

The People Power Party, the former leading government party but now defunct, received Bt10 million in the same month, bringing its year-to-date total to Bt49.5 million.

The PPP's coalition partner, the Ruam Jai Thai Chart Pattana Party, took in Bt3.7 million in November and Bt28.5 million since January. The Social Action Party logged Bt20,000 in November and Bt220,000 since January.

The law prohibits a person or juristic entity from donating more than Bt10 million annually to a political party, while a party's leader or executive, or an executive of a party's branch, is banned from accepting over Bt10 million annually.

BP: So in 10 months they raise 30 million, but in 30 days they raise 120 million? Ok, they had a fund-raiser, but why now? Surely, they knew what they had a chance in forming a government. This, of course, is only the official donations. 

btw, the PDF from the EC is here.

Matichon has some quotes from a former CNS Secretariat director Gen Somjet Boonthanom [BP: He of the defender of the CNS propaganda plot fame - see here and here] gave an interview on the Lub Luang Prang radio program. He states the that way to prevent the politicians interfering in the military is for the military to get in first and interefere in politics in order to prevent future problems.

Then on Thaksin he said, Thaksin is the one who creates chaos in the country and states that Thaksin should look at himself and "where he comes from" and "where his family comes from" and whether he is Thai or he is from a Chinese family residing in Thailand who has come here to seize assets from Thailand. Does the good he has done outweigh the bad? Causing divisiveness is the worst thing you can do. 

He states he doesn't believe that Thaksin doesn't want to change the political system in Thailand, but that he has been used as a tool by underground communists who want to destroy the institution. The ones who are his advisors are dangerous people.

BP: Damn tool of the pinko-liberal communists!

btw, perhaps someone should ask Gen Somjet Boonthanom about Sondhi L and the CP group and his views on their Chinese background.

Recent coverage of the violence in the Deep South has been limited although this is partly because of the reduction in violence (see here and here) and events in politics have taken over, but there is still ongoing violence as The Nation reports:

Security officials are poised for more bombing attack in the deep South, saying they were concerned with the size and timing of the last two that went off simultaneously over the weekend, killing one and injuring a dozen others.

They said the bombs would have caused much more damages if it was better assembled.

One was a 15 kilogramme in weight and placed in front of the Park View Hotel in downtown Yala Saturday.

Yala went nearly two months without a bombing attack and the resumption has caused a great deal of frustration for the officials and the public in the city, he said.

The Yala bomb was hidden in a pickup truck that was parked in front of the Park View Hotel. It was not certain if the vehicle was stolen or the bomb was placed without the owner's knowledge.

Authorities believed the bomb was the work of Malay Muslim separatists looking to carve out a separate homeland in Thailand's three southernmost provinces.

The bomb attack came on the same day when insurgents shot dead a railway security guard and set off another bomb, killing one woman and injured 11 people, including two children and two police officers, in the province of Pattani.

The bomb was placed in front of a convenient store downtown Pattani Saturday afternoon. The female victim was identified as Seu-nee Wan-sulong, 35, a resident of Pattani's Tambon Sabarang. The bomb was tied to a motorbike and was estimated to be about five kilomgrammes in weight. 

BP: The violence continues.

The tabloids will have a field day with this given whenever there is a "sex" element to a story it will be given prominence. As mentioned in a comment the other day, the new Commerce Minister's main claim to fame is that she used to run the very large Poseidon "massage parlour" - some safe-for-work pictures and briefy description of the costs see here.

BP: Wait until The Sun finds out..

btw, Absolutely Bangkok has some comments on this too.

Jonathan Head of the BBC has a video interview with new PM Abhisit as well as an article on what was said. Key excerpts:

New Thai leader Abhisit Vejjajiva has told the BBC he will not sell his soul in bargaining over cabinet posts with defectors from the previous government.

Many ministers in the outgoing government are expected to keep their posts, despite strong criticism of their performance.

...

And he promised the quality of his cabinet would not be compromised by bargaining with coalition partners over ministerial posts.

"I haven't sold my soul. And I have made very clear in my talks with all the groups that are joining me why we are putting this coalition together," he said.

BP: No deals? None? He could have been Clintonian and said there was not a single deal (and instead there were many deals...)

Freedom Against Censorship Thailand has the details - for a list and for a summary.

BP: For those who are not within the Thai censors reach it acts as a virtual list to check out what is banned.

The Star's (Malaysia) Philip Golingai, who is based in Bangkok, sums up what has been happening over the last few years.

BP: It sounds more absurd once you read it all.

The Cabinet has been released (important positions bolded):

Prime Minister:    Abhisit Vejjajiva

Deputy Prime Ministers:   Suthep Thaugsuban, Korbsak Sabhavasu, Sanan Kachornprasart PM's 

Office Ministers :     Satit Wongnongtaey, Virachai Virameteekul

Defence Minister :            General Prawit Wongsuwan

Finance Minister :             Korn Chatikavanij

Deputy Finance Ministers: Pradit Pataraprasit, Dr Pruektichai Damrongrat (PPD)

Foreign Affairs Minister:  Kasit Piromya

Tourism and Sports Minister:   Chumpol Silapa-archa

Social Development and Human Security Minister:   Witoon Nambutr

Agriculture Minister:    Theera Wongsamut

Deputy Agriculture Minister :   Chartchai Pukkayaporn

Transport Minister:  Sophon Saram

Deputy Transport Ministers: Kuakul Danchaiwijit, Prajak Kaewklahan

Natural Resources and Environment Minister: Suwit Khunkitti

Information and Communications Technology Minister: Ranongruk Suwanchawee

Energy Minister:    Wannarat Charnnukul

Commerce Minister:    Pornthiva Nakasai

Deputy Commerce Minister:  Alongkorn Pollabutr

Interior Minister:    Chaovarat Chanweerakul

Deputy Interior Ministers :  Boonjong Wongtrairat, Thaworn Senneam

Justice Minister:    Pirapan Salirathavibhaga

Labour Minister:  Phaithoon Kaeothong

Culture Minister:   Teera Slukpetch

Science Minister:  Kalaya Sophonpanich

Education Minister:    Jurin Laksanawisit

Deputy Education Ministers:  Chaiwuti Bannawat, Narisarat Chawaltanpithak

Public Health Minister: Witthaya Kaewparadai

Deputy Public Health Minister: Manite Nopamornbodi

Industry Minister:    Charnchai Chairungrueng

BP: So nothing for Kriengsak, but the PAD have their quota in Kasit. More to come later.

The Bangkok Post:

New prime minister, Abhisit Vejjajiva, vowed Thursday to visit the poor northeast, a stronghold of ousted premier Thaksin Shinawatra, where he has struggled to win support.

His statement came after party MP for Phatthalung Nipit Intarasombat, who cried foul over the nomination of Veerachai Veerametheekul, the former son-in-law of CP Group chairman Dhanin Chearavanont, as cabinet member.

Mr Nipit said he is concerned about growing influence of business groups, which were trying to exert power over the party and its executive board.

Mr Abhist said donation given for the party from business sectors are done according to law, and the party does not have to give anything back to them.

He then expressed sympathy for MPs who have worked with the party all along but do not get ministerial posts, like the case of Mr Nipit.

The prime minister, however, expressed confidence that he can clear the air with Mr Nipit.

Meanwhile, Democrat secretary-general Suthep Thaugsuban said he does not know about Mr Nipit's revelation to the media that a 80-million baht fund was donated to the party.

He insisted that the party will not offer anything back to the donor. 

BP: This is getting more coverage in the Thai press. Big front page headline on Khao Sod about the 80 million baht fund donated to the Democrats. From the Khao Sod article, Nipit also says that he told Chuan that is unhappy and if he is unhappy he needs to consider what to do. Chuan told him the situation was extremely unfair (ไม่ยุติธรรมเป็นอย่างยิ่ง), but Chuan also said to be patient.

This reminds BP of the Newin faction vs Isan Pattana faction feud (both of PPP at the time) in the media a few months ago. Still unsure on how far Nipit will take this and whether he will be given some position and some promises made to shut him up. 

The reality is that in order to govern the Democrats had to make deals. Their MPs can either put their heads in their sand and pretend that they didn't need to do this if they ever wanted to form the government or they can accept reality. No doubt if Nipit is rewarded he will suddenly be quiet as would have seen the light (or more accurately the power and the money for keeping quiet). It will be amusing to read the op-eds this week and whether they mention it or will we get a continuation of the editorials from both the Post and The Nation they we need to get behind the new government - they weren't so generous for PPP. You can already see the explaining away of the needs for the deals in The Nation as necessary. Of course they were necessary, but they have been necessary for every government. Quotas are not going away. Even in some utopian New Politics scheme there will be different groups in society and each group will need to be rewarded (quota system!).

btw, Suthep doesn't know about the 80 million baht just like PPP don't know that Thaksin funds them...

Even the red shirts have something to say:

Mr Jatuporn Prompan, a leader of the Red Shirt group, said they would mobilise thousands of supporters to protest the legitimacy of the Democrat-led coalition.

'This government has no right to rule - you can see minister positions have been awarded to capitalists, the PAD and the military, who helped the Democrats into power,' he told AFP.

BP: Agree on the later two, but Thaksin never rewarded the "capitalists"? Come on. They were the ones who backed him against the Democrats in 2001 and 2005 elections. 

btw, bonus points if you can find any mention of the 80 million baht figure in The Nation - they metion the MP and his anger.

Chris and Pasuk have a short 4 page article (PDF) on the political crisis in Thailand. The opening:

The turmoil in Thailand has drawn into its fold the rural masses, a minority urban middle class and the military, not to mention the monarchy. At the centre is the billionaire businessman and former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra, but the conflict which has divided families, towns and villages has gone beyond Thaksin. It has brought to the surface fundamental questions about the prospects for democracy in societies, which are struggling to manage the impact of globalisation.

BP: Well-balanced article and worth a read.

btw, see New Mandala also have post and another excerpt.

UPDATE: See below

Gwynne Dyer has a new op-ed on the situation in Thailand. The opening:

The political crisis in Thailand is over, and so is the ten-year experiment with democracy. The rich and the comfortably off have risen in outraged revolt against equal treatment for the poor, and it’s back to the bad old days of shaky coalitions and bought-and-paid-for politicians. The misleadingly named People’ Alliance for Democracy (PAD) has won. 

BP: Won the battle, but have the PAD won the war?

btw, blogged one of his earlier op-eds on Thailand in January.

UPDATE: Hint, if this blog links to a syndicated column (there was a reason to linking to his Wiki article which states "Dyer writes a column on international affairs which is published in over 175 papers in at least 45 countries") what is the point in criticising one of the publications it is published in. If you don't like that source, how about reading it at this one and this one.

Unforuntately the recent comments sidebar widget is not working. It is apparently a Google/blogger problem for a number of blogs so there is nothing BP can do - although if anyone knows a fix, comment now or forever hold your peace...

The Asahai Shimbun has an editorial on Thailand's new PM. Key excerpt:

But Abhisit himself must know better than anyone how daunting a challenge this will be.

The military pulled the strings behind the scenes to anoint Abhisit. But since the new administration has not been popularly elected, one can hardly vouch for its legitimacy. Under the basic rules of democracy, Abhisit should dissolve the national assembly and call a general election if he is to seek a mandate from voters.

But few people in Thailand expect Abhisit to dissolve the national assembly immediately, since all general elections over the last few years have been won by the Thaksin camp. The anti-Thaksin parties failed to win a majority even in the general election of last December.

Thailand's credibility has been shattered in the international community. The weeklong siege of Bangkok's two airports from late November by the anti-Thaksin People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD) stranded many foreign tourists, including Japanese, and affected foreign companies operating in Thailand.

Unless the Thai government is able to regain its trust at home and abroad and reassure everyone, Japanese businesses in Thailand will have to re-examine their long-term strategies. The Japanese government ought to convey this concern to Abhisit.

We ask the new prime minister to take bold initiatives. We want him to fight poverty in the northeast to narrow the gap between the rich and the poor, and to shun favoritism in the appointment of anti-Thaksin people to government posts while advancing dialogue with the Thaksin forces.

The government and the people of Thailand also need to engage in open debate on the role of the monarchy in politics to ensure the establishment of their democracy over the long term. The Thais cannot secure political stability if they keep relying on the 

BP: Taking action against all breaches of the law by all protesters would restore confidence otherwise PAD could seize the airport again. Abhisit has stated this will happen which is a positive sign, but we need to wait for actual action.

Not even sure how to point out the link and well the headline is probably what will annoy some people the most, but it is on Newsweek's blog Why It Matters. Slightly different perspective, this time from the palace. Key excerpt:

Members of the royal family are said to be dismayed about the magazine’s stories, which get into controversial areas last visited in “The King Never Smiles,” a 2006 unauthorized biography by freelance writer Paul M. Handley. The book, banned in Thailand before it was even published, makes similar allegations about the monarchy. “The concern is the myth of a conspiracy between the king and the military,” says an individual with links to the Palace who spoke only on condition of anonymity and because he believes the articles are unfair. People in the king's inner circle “are genuinely distressed, because this fosters the ideas of conspiracy theorists.”

The Economist, the source pointed out, was not banned by the government. There was no need to do so because distributor acted voluntarily to withhold the offending edition. In the age of the Internet, banning publications anywhere is a tricky–and often futile–proposition, apart from in countries like China, Burma and North Korea, which tightly control acces to the Web. “Banning a magazine doesn’t make much sense any more, because it gets through – and they know that,” the source said, referring to the Palace. The Economist argues that the lese-majeste law should be revisited. For now, no such plans are on the drawing board.

BP: A different perspective.

The Thai authorities have seizied assets Thaksin and Co's assets as he is unusually wealthy. Thanong:

The public prosecutors are seeking to seize Bt76 billion belonging to the Shinawatra family into state coffers based on allegations that former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra became unusually rich by abusing his power during his premiership between 2001 and 2006.

...

Shin Corp was one of the hottest stocks during the reign of Thaksin (did you miss the boat?) as it belonged to the high growth telecom sector and allegedly benefited from "policy corruption" engineered by his government, something the public prosecutors would have to prove in the court.

This other article mentions a different figure (there is a dividend as well which has been seized):

Based on graft allegations, public prosecutors have mounted a sturdy case for the seizure of Thaksin's wealth. The prosecution writ is 124-pages long. The associated evidence required 180 boxes and needed to be transported to the court in a large lorry.

The AEC was mandated by the coup to freeze assets suspected of being ill-gotten. The Supreme Court must decide on confiscation.

The assets frozen total about Bt69 billion. And judging from the writ lodged yesterday, the prosecution will try to seize unaccounted-for funds, too.

Should the court proceed to trial, it may be heard in the absence of Thaksin. It is considered a civil proceeding.

Under money-laundering law, the defence bears the burden of proving the assets legitimate.

Although Thaksin's frozen funds are reportedly revenue from the 2006 sale of his family's shares in Shin Corp, his defence may find it difficult to justify the giant leap in his wealth from when he was not prime minister.

BP: So the story is Thaksin's wealth increased during his time as PM. This is not really in dispute as "his" (used loosely to mean his family) net worth went up dramatically (there is some PAD statement somewhere stating the figures of about 28 to 74 billion, but am unable to find). He made his money from Shin and the thing is that his net worth went up around the same value as the stock market. Below are some figures (note the % rise figure is just how the computer program calculates it):

SET Index on January 6, 2001 (date of election): 286.76 

SET Index on January 23, 2006 (Thaksin sells Shin): 747.70 (close on January 20, 2006, Friday before the announcement)

 

rise of 161%

 

Shin on January 6, 2001: 17.6 baht

Shin on January 23, 2006: 47.25 baht (close on January 20, 2006)

 

rise of 168%

 

Advanc on January 6, 2001: 38 baht

Advanc on January 23, 2006: 104 baht (close on January 20, 2006)

rise of 173%

 

Shin Satellite (THCOM) on January 6, 2001: 15.88 baht

Shin Satellite on January 23, 2006: 15.5 baht (Jan 20 close)

 

drop of 2%

 

Bangkok Bank (BBL) on January 6, 2001: 29.25 baht

Bangkok Bank on January 23, 2006: 111 (Jan 20 close)

 

rise of 279%

 

Kasikornbank (KBANK) on January 6, 2001: 21.5 baht

Kasikornbank on January 23, 2006: 68.5 baht (Jan 20 close)

 

rise of 219%

 

Siam Commercial Bank on January 6, 2001: 22 baht

Siam Commercial Bank on January 23, 2006: 57 baht (Jan 20 close)

 

rise of 159%

 

Siam Cement on January 6, 2001: 30 baht

Siam Cement on January 23, 2006: 250 baht (Jan 20 close)

 

rise of 633%

 

Banpu on January 6, 2001: 17.75

Banpu on January 23, 2006: 133 (Jan 20 close)

 

rise of 649%

 

IRPC (formerly TPI) on January 6, 2001: 1.75

IRPC on January 23, 2006: 8.1 (Jan 20 close)

 

rise of 363%

BP: So Shin rises 168%, the SET rises 161%. So is this a giant leap of wealth? Hardly. You can see Shin was hardly a "hot" stock despite suggestions by The Nation otherwise compared to some of the other companies. He should have had all his money in bank stocks, Siam Cement, Banpu, or IPRC. Then, he would have been a rich man! Now, there is a separate question on whether it is a good idea to have a rich person as PM and BP has doubts on whether this is a good idea for the future - although of course if you have a person of an even larger conglomerate as Minister we won't hear anything about it.

On the telecoms industry, there is this from Asia Sentinel:

As it happens, charges of collusion came fast and furious once Thaksin started liberalizing the industry. Shin reaped tremendous profits, and Thaksin’s critics accused him of tweaking policies to benefit his company. In 2003, AIS saw profits rise 62% to 18.5 billion baht. The next year, AIS’s net profit grew another 9% to 20.3 billion.

But that’s where the gravy train came to a halt. In 2005, a fierce price war prompted AIS’s revenue to drop 4% to 92.5 billion baht, and net profits fell 8% to 18.7 billion baht. Last year, earnings fell another 13% to 16.2 billion baht.

So how have AIS’s rivals fared? The two other major mobile phone operators, third-ranked True Move and second-ranked DTAC, have both seen steady growth and chipped away at AIS’s market share in the past few years. Although DTAC still lags behind AIS, its net profit has grown for four straight years. Net profit rose 24% in 2003 and 73.3% in 2004 to 4.5 billion baht. And although AIS’s net profit fell the past two years, DTAC’s rose 3% in 2005 and another 7% last year. Analysts expect its net profit to see double-digit growth over the next two years to more than nine billion baht if the sector is liberalized further.

Moreover, AIS’s share of service revenue during the last five years of Thaksin’s rule actually fell to 53% in 2006 from 68% in 2002. In that time period, DTAC’s share of service revenue jumped to 32% from 28% and True Move’s rose to 15% from only 4%. AIS peaked in 2004 and has fallen since as its rivals have slashed prices.

BP: The thing that has always bothered BP about the policy corruption charges is that almost all policies have an effect on something. Start a village fund and you theoretically enable people to borrow money to buy mobile phones. If he had reduced corporate tax, this would also help Shin, but again other companies too. The question should not be whether Thaksin benefitted, but was it a good policy. This is something which seems missing in the policy corruption argument. 

One of the government's policies specifically advantaged DTAC and if it had not been implemented there is almost no way DTAC would have been able to compete with AIS in the pre-paid area (which is the majority of the market). AIS would have killed DTAC in the pre-paid area if this changed had not happened yet this change made the more pre-paid market more competitive and this lead to the expansion of mobile phone uptake (anyone had a mobile phone prior to 2001 surely remembers paying 15,000+ baht for the mobile phone and a contract with a minimum of 500 baht a month). When considering the expansion of mobile phone uptake, which certainly benefitted Thaksin's company, is this a good thing for society? Well, some studies have suggested an increase in the number of people with mobile phones leads to higher GDP.

h/t to a reader

There are a couple of lists going around, but this one (yes, BP knows who runs the website) is at least in HTML format and not a grainy PDF/image file. They are (or were now?) apparently being investigated by Special Branch over financial support for the PAD.

The list of alleged supporters includes the maker/owner of Mama noodles, Mitrapol sugar, Lotte, Nissin instant noodles, Mistine products, Panstar shoes, Thai Airways, Chang Beer, Sara paracetamol, Bangkok Bank, Kasikorn Bank, Thai Life Insurance (Muang Thai Pragun Chewit), Rangsit University, Bangkok Hospital, J-Press, IEC etc.

BP: In many instances, it is unclear whether it is actual company support or the acts of one director, employee or large shareholder. Even the donation of money to PAD is not financing of terrorism. First, there are arguments over what PAD did was a terrorist act or not, but even if the airport seizure if deemed to be a  terrorist act if you donated money before this and weren't aware the airports were going to be seized, there does not seem to be any crime. 

btw, what is Prinya of Thammasat doing on the list in the individuals/entities part? He was a PAD supporter back in 2006, but has independent enough views on many matter legal matters  (ie the party dissolution against the TRT in 2006)  that he could hardly qualify as a supporter.

The Nation:

Consumer advocate Saree Ongsomwang on Thursday reminded about the possible offence on the privacy after Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva chose to stay in touch with his constituents via text messaging.

Saree said under the telcommunication law, mobile phone operators are banned from releasing the list of subscribers without their consent.

She said Abhisit should opt to keep contacts with the people via television and other public communication outlets in order to avoid infringing on the consumer's right.

The Democrat Party should not place financial burden on mobile phone users, she said.

Democrat MP Korn Chatikavanij, tipped to become the finance minister, asked every mobile phone operator to transmit a text message to subscribers on Thursday.

The message read, " I am your new PM committed to lead Thailand out of the crisis. If you are interested to receive my messages, please send your five-digit postal code to telephone No 9191 (Bt3 standard rate applies)". It was signed "Your PM".

BP: On the privacy aspect, if Korn asked them to send the message and the moible numbers were not passed to the Democrats, is it a breach of privacy? No. It is annoying, but then that is just like other mobile phone spam. Why did the mobile phone operators send the SMS? Asked or requested? Was it for free? If not, who paid? If for free, for what purpose? It wasn't like an emergency tsunami warning message. It is political spam from the government. 

It should be noted that if the Democrats paid for this then this seems perfectly legitimate (no doubt broke some silly EC rule somewhere). In fact, it might be seen as a smart ploy to basically go harvesting for for mobile phone numbers as SMS is an effective technique in Thailand (next they'll hit 'em up for donations!) although some "reds" are no doubt not happy about being spammed.

The Nation mentions some grumbling in the Democrat ranks here, but Matichon also reports a Democrat MP from Phattalung who stated, before he was to meet Abhisit over the allocation of the Cainbet seats, that he is unhappy over the giving of positions to outsiders or financiers as they are not appropriate and it is not "just". He adds that more than half the MPs in the party agree with him.

BP: 8 years out of power and all we get is the leftovers from Newin and Co is likely to be the argument. And Cabinet positions were of course not divvied by quotas back in 1992-1995 and 1997-2001? Abhisit can easily deal with the grumblings now, but the grumblings will likely get much worse later when there are greater economic pressures and then questions over performance. An uneviable task.

To be clear, this blog wishes Abhisit good luck, but the magnitude of the task needs to be understood - the economic prospects for the beginning of 2009 are dire with the possiblity of a rcession and BP feels this being glossed over to avoid any mention of what damage PAD has done (it is not a criticism of Abhisit to mention that the economic situation is dire either). All governments deserve a honeymoon period and with the tough tasks this government deserves longer one than most regardless of questions of how it came to powers.*  Regardless of this, BP considers Abhisit to be the PM and whoever is chosen has the Cabinet to be legitmite. Others can question the "legitimacy" of Abhisit and his government and that is their prerogative, but to BP it is the voters who will decide the legitimacy of the government and judge the MPs. Baring evidence that Abhisit directly financed the PAD himself and orchestrated the whole thing with Sondhi L (BP does not think this happened) it is his turn. 

Nevertheless, this doesn't mean we cannot question, probe and criticise. In fact, given the PAD cheerleading of some elements of the media this is needed. 

*There is a separate question over how the Army C-in-C and others acted. 

The following is a statement/plea from Thongchai Winichakul (confirmed as he used his .edu address) and has granted permission for this to be published on the blog:

I just read Prachatai re: arrest of a red shirt guy for threatening a Democrat MP at the Parliament House a few days ago, and re: the National HR Comm's report charging the police, Somchai (ex-PM) and many more for killings people at the Oct 7 incident [BP: See more at end]. Meanwhile the PAD get impunity for their crimes and wrongdoings.

 

THIS IS AN URGENT PLEA, A VERY SERIOUS CONCERN.

 

The lack of trust in a society due to the lack of a fair and just channel for conflict resolution could lead to an unimaginable social disaster. 

 

The current political crisis and the crisis in the south have one thing in common: the failure of the rule of law mainly due to unfairness and outrageous partiality in enforcing the law and in the justice system (from police all the ways up to the court). This failure leads to the collapse of trust in the political and justice system. Without the trust in the system, there will be no acceptable conflict resolution. Violence becomes the only option.

 

ALL mechanism of law and justice system are digging a grave for Thai society. They do everything to win at the expense of the entire legal and justice systems. The "rule of law" from them is the abuse of law for their own benefits. Their victory over Thaksin is so costly -- destroying trust in the rule of law and in the justice system. 

 

The media, and the activists on human rights and liberty, and the NHRC are part of this failure too. Had they done their job with strong principles and professionally, ESPECIALLY UPHOLDING THE PRINCIPLE OF IMPARTIALITY, the legal and justice systems may not have become so corrupt, so biased, so unfair, as they currently are. Trust in the society may not have depleted as seriously as it currently is.

 

The failure of media and HR community to uphold IMPARTIALITY is so costly in this conflict. They must be responsible for the crisis too. Sadly, up to now, they seem not understand how much they could have made things better, and how serious their mistakes actually are. Obviously, they do not understand and they learn nothing from the crisis in the south. They help creating a similar condition of distrust and potential violence, but on a larger scale.

 

The call for the rule of law is necessary. But it needs the fair and just rule of law. As the justice system is abused, becoming outrageously unfair, biased, and untrustworthy, the only door for peaceful conflict resolution is being shut down. 

 

We cannot avoid conflicts. But it is a dangerous situation if serious conflicts find no trustworthy and fair system to resolve. A call for non-violence becomes a farce and ridiculous if there is no fair and just channel to solve the conflicts. Without the fair and just "means", regardless of an ideological end one may want, there can be no peace.

BP: This is the statement in full.

On the charging of the PM and others, The Nation:

The National Human Rights Commission (NHRC) has held many high-profile figures, including Somchai Wongsawat, Chavalit Yongchaiyudh and Pol Gen Patcharawat Wongsuwan, responsible for the violence on October 7. 

Two people were killed and hundreds injured in running clashes on the streets of central Bangkok.

On that day, People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD) demonstrators surrounded Parliament House in a bid to prevent Somchai's government declaring its policies. Somchai, a brother in-law of ousted prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra, was widely seen as Thaksin's puppet.

Police used teargas to disperse the PAD mob, but exploding canisters saw several protesters lose limbs.

The bloody crackdown prompted PAD demonstrators to clash with police throughout the day.

However, Somchai successfully declared his policies and did not order police to stop using force.

The NHRC has looked into the October 7 violence, questioning witnesses and reviewing evidence.

Doctors, forensic-science experts, policemen, reporters and demonstrators all gave witness accounts.

The NHRC probe has concluded that Somchai and his then deputy Chavalit should be held responsible for the violence because they were the ones who gave instructions to police.

Patcharawat, who was then national police commissioner, and 11 other high-ranking policemen were also charged with violating human rights.

Matichon has more details and the NHRC wants them charged with half a dozen criminal offences including what seems to be manslaughter.

BP: If this blog had more time, it would critique the NHRC findings in greater details. There is an absurd point about Chavalit and Somchai stating they did not oppose the use of force and tear gas to disperse the protesters so they need to be held responsible for the losses and damages during the dispersal which was a breach of human rights and the law (แต่มิได้คัดค้านการใช้กำลังและระเบิดแก๊สน้ำตาเข้าสลายการชุมนุม ต้องรับผิดชอบต่อความเสียหายที่เกิดขึ้นในการสลายการชุมนุม ซึ่งถือเป็นการกระทำที่ละเมิดสิทธิต่อมนุษยชนและละเมิดต่อกฎหมาย). If Somchai and Chavalit ordered the protesters to be killed that is one thing, but to make them legally responsible just as they asked for the dispersal of protesters - hasn't the Admin Court already ruled on such protests that they were not peaceful protests? - is extraordinary.

The CP group, a huge Thai conglomerate - see here and here. In the past they were known to be close to Thaksin. A few months ago, there was a story about 4 people plotting against Thaksin and one of them being a civilian whose first name began with T. 

At the time, BP blogged:

T and Ch are much more difficult. One could say it might be business tycoons who were close to Thaksin but moved away (Thanin of CP) or supported his opponents in the aftermath of the coup (Charoen of Chang Beer).

BP: Thaksin's furore and deals with Middle Eastern businessman put him in direct conflict with CP who were previously a major supporter of TRT and Thaksin. By the 2007 election, CP donated 23 million baht to the Democrats for the last election - the largest single  donation (well legal donation). This year CP was speculated to be one of the funders of the PAD - nothing definitive though and less heard about this.

The other day Sarasin Viraphol, an executive vice president of the CP Group, had an op-ed in The Nation with the intro talking about Samak maybe needing a liver transplant. Key excerpt:

Scholar: Your description of the treatment for hepatoma may have a relevant bearing on how Thailand could deal with its ongoing political maelstrom. The Thai body politic is currently being threatened by the convergence of destructive centrifugal and centripetal forces. I am reminded of a similar historical situation in China in 1644 AD. Within a span of three months in that fateful year, a combination of factors involving the interplay of settings and personalities brought on a shattering historical upheaval. First, the Ming dynasty - installed since 1368 AD - was brought to its knees by a self-proclaimed populist leader named Li Zhicheng. In turn, the Da Shun rule proclaimed in its place was annihilated by the invading Manchu (foreign) forces (which had been "invited" inside China proper by a renegade Ming general named Wu Sanguei ). The Manchu minority tribesmen from Northeastern China established their own rule over China for the next 267 years under the dynastic name of Qing.

Thailand is facing a national political situation with parallel complexitiezs. For instance, it is disturbing to hear that some amongst us should have unscrupulously engaged foreign agents provocateur (country, organisation and individual alike) to compromise Thai national sovereignty and credibility.

For most of 2008, we have gone from one political crisis after another as the Thai body politic has suffered tremendous emasculating effects. However, the current political situation, with the various political factions in the throes of selecting a new government, may, in many respects, resemble the condition of administering the above-mentioned treatment course for hepatoma?

Doctor: As a professional dealing with healing and saving lives, I am concerned not only about vital physical signs and conditions, but also about spiritual forces. To my understanding, a well-functioning democratic nation requires good governance replete with legal and moral authority.

Unfortunately, Thailand suffers from a dysfunctional political system caused by unscrupulous and corrupt politicians amassing personal wealth and power under the pretext of serving the masses. This development has transformed into a malignant tumour lodged in the Thai body politic, and is eating away at the moral, institutional and legal foundation of the nation. In the coming days, we shall be witnessing a course of events that will determine the future survival of the Thai body politic as we know it. Thais, particularly those politicians and public servants directly engaged in the political process, may be reminded to ponder the treatment strategy for hepatoma that could be applied to treating the malignant political condition of the nation.

The first course of chemotherapy was administered when the Supreme Court decided on the disbanding of the immediate past government. The challenge before us is embolising or blocking off the blood supply to the malignant tumour in the dominant part of the body politic, and providing the diminutive part with a chance to grow and save its life.

The extent of the malignancy of the Thai body politic rules out the option of transplant. While public opinion polls consistently endorse the choice of a government of national unity, the current political schism renders the choice unrealistic. Taking the lesson of the hepatoma treatment, we must explore the alternative treatment of nurturing the existing parliamentary process, in nurturing the part which remains free from cirrhosis and hepatitis.

The parliament vote on December 15 to choose the new head of government will hopefully lead to a political healing process for Thailand 's embattled body politic.

Scholar: One must also pray that such a crucial effort will succeed with the collective will and effort of all the Thai people at this critical juncture in our history

BP: Simple translation, Thaksin and Co is a cancer and has hired foreigners - what is with The Nation and these hypothetical converations?

Today:

There will be two non-MPs in the upcoming Cabinet: former Army commander-in-chief General Prawit Wongsuwan is expected to become the defence minister, and Virachai Viramethakul, an executive from the Charoen Pokphand Group, is likely to become a PM's Office minister dealing with economic matters.

Virachai's name was inserted into the Cabinet line-up "at the last minute", which also caused much displeasure to many Democrat seniors, according to the party source.

Suthep explained to them that Virachai was also instrumental in gathering support from defecting MPs for the Democrat's bid to form the new government.

BP: If it was not already clear where CP's support lies, it is now. No doubt there will be no policies which help CP as the Democrats are "different" and don't allow "policy corruption"...

What magic powers of persuasion did Virachai have? A big wad of benjamins?*

*To Thai-ize this slang is not a good idea...

Not The Nation is just too good.

BP: One quibble, would it really be Matichon and Thai Rath? Surely, it would be The Nation and the Bangkok Post (yes, yes Not The Nation couldn't refer to itself/The Nation, but The Nation would write the editorial)? One can easily imagine the op-eds from Thanong (it was necessary) and Sopon now...

h/t Absolutely Bangkok whose news feed is brilliant.

Now, who says the Thai police are slow, they can be quick when they want to:

Police arrested on Thursday a 25-year-old whitesmith who was accused of being one of the red-shirted protesters throwing rocks at MPs' vehicles leaving Parliament on Monday. 

Admitting that he was the culprit captured in a photo, Nakhon Panom native Chokchai Khamleu said he did that out of impulsive anger because he wanted to take a revenge for the bullies done to "his beloved (previous) government" and he could not accept the Democrat-led government.

He said he was not hired by anyone to join the Monday rally and he had joined most red-shirted demonstrations.

This Samut Prakan factory worker was among the six people for whom the Bangkok court issued arrest warrants after they were identified as the wrongdoers by photo and video footage evidences. The six would face the charge of gathering in a group of more than 10 persons to assault or create chaos; the charge of assault that was punishable for up to two years in jail and/or Bt4,000 in fine; the charge of property damage that was punishable for up to three years in prison and/or Bt6,000 in fine; and the charge of illegal detention that was punishable for up to five years in jail and/or Bt10,000 in fine.

Assistant to national police chief Pol Lt Gen Panupong Singhara Na Ayutthaya presided over a meeting yesterday for preparation of crowd-controlling tactics.  Some 30,000 red-shirted protesters were expected to rally at Parliament on Tuesday (Dec 23) to pressure Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva not to announce policies as scheduled on Friday (Dec 26).

Acting metropolitan police chief Pol Maj Gen Ekkarat Meepreecha said before the meeting that the police's crowd controlling rehearsal on Wednesday was not satisfactory thus more practices were needed and each police unit function would be detailed. As for the MPs' security guarding plan on the policy-announcing day, Ekkarat said he would propose to the metropolitan police chief the employment of police officers guarding each MP.

BP: So why are the police not taking action against the PAD guards? They arrested this guy in three days so surely they can devote as many resources to arresting those involved in the seizing of Government House, surrounding of parliament, and the airports...

Azwar Thi has a much longer critique of the hypocrisy (h/t Thai Politico) which is worth reading in its entirety.

A.F. made an amusing analogy in a comment in this thread:

I generally detest argument by analogy, but sometimes it's the only way to defuse issues of personality. 

If PepsiCo and its shareholder used their connections to force the brand Coke off the market, and to force Coca Cola Corp to change its name several times and remove other of its brands from the market, engaged its friends to besiege Coca Cola headquarters, and otherwise manipulate the mechanisms of the marketplace... Could you really then say that Pepsi was the people's beverage of choice?

BP: Feel free to add your own. Bonus points if you can work out how New Coke fits in ...

The Bangkok Post:

The army plans to visit red-shirted groups in the Northeast as part of a mission to ease social disunity.

Army chief Gen Anupong Paojinda has ordered military officers to launch the mission to the Isan region, a stronghold of the defunct Thai Rak Thai party founded by Thaksin Shinawatra.

The North and Northeast are dominated by pro-Thaksin supporters, known for wearing their symbolic red shirts.

Many of them have announced they will stage protests against the new Democrat party-led government.

"Basically I love Isan people," said Gen Anupong.

"We can't force them to love certain people. If they get angry, we have to talk with them calmly.

And I want to talk with them," he added.

"Soldiers can go into the local areas and talk to the people there. We're most willing to do that if it's not interfering with politics," Gen Anupong said.

BP: And why didn't the military go and talk with PAD then? It sounds like the military's campaign last year after the coup.

On Abhisit:

The general yesterday also commented on accusations that Mr Abhisit had evaded conscription.

He said the case is 21 years old and the statute of limitations on it has already lapsed.

BP: So it is not he did no wrong, but a jurisdictional issue that the statute of limitations has expired? If that is the case, fine, just be clear that what he did was illegal, but no action can be taken.

Bloomberg:

Thailand’s benchmark SET Index, down 48 percent for the year, has risen 7.9 percent in the past five days, the most in Asia during that span. The baht rose for a ninth day, the longest winning streak since February, to the highest level in almost two months.

BP: Good news for the Democrats although, when will foreign investors return?

The video is here in case the below embed doesn't work - partial transcript at Yoon's blog.



BP: Unsurprisingly, much to the angst of some Abhisit supporters, Dan Rivers does ask some tough questions and Abhisit has an answer and does reasonably well although he often seems uncomfortable when he is being asked such questions and his responses can sound prickly. He chooses his words carefully at times (ok he never consulted with, but what about Suthep?), but he can often be quite loose with what he says (were there really no deals done? Or just that Suthep hasn't told him)? Then again Thai politicians aren't used to answering many tough questions.

Abhisit has two battles; substance and style. He often does well in the style department (PPP have almost abandoned style since Thaksin left) and presenting a positive image of Thailand, himself and the party. However, it is substance, particularly in convincing foreign investors and tourists to return, where he will have to perform. In opposition, it is easy to talk about what you want to do, but now he has the power to implement policy. Yoon actually has some good advice on some points, but this excerpt is releveant to the substance element:

An even more crucial reason why Abhisit can't tell the Thai people he is leading a perfect Cabinet is that we all know he is sleeping with strange bedfellows in the coalition government. Even his staunchest supporters wouldn't want to show their public approval of this somewhat embarrassing shotgun wedding between the Democrats and the Friends of Newin.

BP: The Democrats have set expectations that this Cabinet will be filled with competent people yet with half the Cabinet filled by the coalition parties and some of them losing MPs and executives, the cupboard for the coalition parties is even barer. Hence, lowering expectations is needed - he is already doing so smartly for the economy.

Puea Thai are likely to be in disarray in adjusting to opposition so this provides some breathing room - although a PAD-linked Cabinet Minister would provide them with a way of attack and then well the by-elections.

Dan also has blogged on Abhisit here:

He needs to do this quickly because many think the clock is already ticking for his coalition to fall apart. I sat down with Abhisit for an exclusive interview just after he won the vote to become prime minister and he refused to give a time frame for fresh elections.

The problem is he has no mandate from the people at the moment and has only risen to the top, after horse trading and deal making in parliament. Sooner or later he must face that test and go to the nation… and without some quick footwork to prove his mettle I fear he will fail.

BP: Apparently, the interview will be on TV next week so is there more to come. 

Thanong at The Nation:

Thaksin now has to plan his movements carefully because he would not want to stay in a country that maintains extradition treaty with Thailand. So he will be hopping around countries with unfamiliar names such as Panama or Papua New Guinea. 
...
With the UK government's banning of his visa, Thaksin can no longer enter any Common Wealth countries. Singapore is caught in the same dilemma of not wanting to welcome Thaksin again. What would be the US response if Thaksin were to apply for a visa to enter the US?

BP: Knowing a few people who issue visas for Commonweath countries, Thanong might be surprised to learn that there is no empire anymore and there is no automatic ban. Singapore and Papua New Guinea are both Commonwealth countries yet he treats them as being separate so which so which Commonwealth is he referring too?

Matichon reports that Abhisit will have a one hour weekly show on NBT (ala like Samak), but will give the leader of the opposition equal time.

BP: Unsurprisingly, since this blog called on Samak to give the leader of the opposition an opportunity to respond, BP agrees. Good move by Abhisit.

Prachatai:

On the "lese majeste" issue, this is a law passed by parliament. Amendments can be made only by parliament. Of course, there are cases for and against amendment. But being above politics and under the constitution, His Majesty never intervenes with the passage of any law. He grants consent to all pieces of legislation that have been duly passed.

Nonetheless, he has spoken in 2005 in public and in a nationwide live telecast that he did not agree with the notion of "the King can do no wrong".

His view was that the King could be wrong, that the "lese majeste" law could cause him trouble, and that criticism of him should be allowed. He referred to some of his views which were criticised and disagreed by others so that he had to abandon them such as the idea whether a certain dam should be constructed. When listening to NGO criticism, he thought of other ways to help with the irrigation.

It is indeed easy to look at the Thai monarchy from a western point of view, especially a British point of view and draw a certain conclusion. But I am afraid such may be far too simplistic. A constitutional monarch in each country has roles prescribed to him or her in accordance with that particular country's conventions and customs developed through history. Hence the Thai and, say, the British monarchy have separate and completely different traditions.

While respecting your every right to express your view, I believe any analysis of the Thai monarchy should not be approached only from a western perspective, but it must take into account the Thai political, constitutional and cultural contexts. Likewise, a Thai should not criticise a monarch of another country based on his or her experiences with, and perspectives on, the Thai monarchy. We all have customs, traditions and conventions particular to our nations to consider.

If they are ignored, the resulting views will be grossly condescending.

Dr Surakiart Sathirathai is a former deputy prime minister.

BP: Actually, this is at least a much better response than MFA's poor response the other day. Lese majeste law has been made harsher whenever there is a military government. The current constitution was drafted by the military's people and it enshrines lese majeste. Section 8:

The King shall be enthroned in a position of revered worship and shall not be violated.

No person shall expose the King to any sort of accusation or action.

BP: Acutally, the PAD have stated that they wouldn't allow such amendements so it is difficult to see how amendments could be achieved when the mob wouldn't allow it.

This is Abhisit on the left and Newin on the right:

BP: The angle makes it odd and well Newin's face is a classic.

Source: Thaienews

The Bangkok Post:

Chaiyan Chaiyaporn, a political scientist at Chulalongkorn University, said the new government was at risk of losing enough votes to support it in the future, but at least Mr Abhisit was democratically elected.

''From now on I think the people will have the opportunity to learn what democracy is. Because our country is no longer ruled by a nominee of Mr Thaksin,'' said Mr Chaiyan.

BP: Democratically elected? And how is Abhisit different from Samak and Somchai?

From 2006:

Chaiyan arrested and may be charged for 'defending his right' to prevent illegality 

A leading Chulalong-korn University

academic ripped up his ballot paper yesterday morning in protest against the election but was immediately arrested and faced five hours of police questioning.

Chaiyan Chaiyaporn, head of the Government Administration Department, ticked the "no" slot on his ballot slip for his constituency and party-list candidates but then tore them up in front of an army of reporters.

Before signing his name, Chaiyan said he needed to destroy the ballots to make sure they would not be abused to help any party.

Chaiyan and his son, Thayan Chaiyaporn, who is in sixth grade, arrived at the 62nd polling station at the Triam Udom Suksa School in Suan Luang district with his son carrying a placard that quoted Article 65 of the Constitution.

The article empowers citizens to peacefully resist any attempt to seek power unconstitutionally.

BP: So when the coup came along, where was he then? Nowhere of course.

TNA:

Thailand's Democrat Party which is now forming the politically-stressed country's new coalition government will have 14 or 15 ministerial posts, and the party will invite a maximum of two experienced outsiders to join the administration, party secretary-general Suthep Thaugsuban said Wednesday.

Stressing that he would not allow parties joining the coalition government to play "political games", Mr. Suthep said persons appointed as ministers in the new government must be qualified and be able to work efficiently for the country.

 

The administrative committee and members of parliament will have a final screening of those persons proposed for cabinet posts, he said.

Mr. Suthep said the Phum Jai Thai Party (the reformed Matchimathipataya party from the previous government) will be given a commerce ministerial post while the Democrat party will obtain 14-15 posts

BP: Matichon earlier it was 3 outsiders, but the Democrats with 160 odd seats get 14-15 and the coalition parties withh so far about 70 also get 14-15 seats. Such are deals one has to do - PPP had to do the same.

The Nation has details on the coalition seats:

Newin Chidchob's group will get five seats - Transport, another ministry, and three deputy ministers posts: Transport, Agriculture, and Interior. Newin's father and House Speaker Chai Chidchob and former secretary-general of Samak Sundaravej Thirapol Noprampha are candidates for the Transport portfolio.

BP: Newin group has done well haven't they with all the prime seats, but there is also no need for them to go anywhere now.

(UPDATE: The Post reports the Newin faction will get Interior too instead of what is unsure, but it seems this is the other ministry)

Chart Thai Pattana will get four seats, with one being a deputy PM, one Agriculture Minister, Tourism and Sports Minister, and deputy Transport Minister.

BP: Matichon reports than Sanan is back as Deputy PM. Banharn's young brother Chumpol as Agriculture Minister, but also notes that they will get an extra position of Deputy of Agriculture.

The Nation:

Puea Pandin will get three seats consisting of Information and Communications Technology, deputy Finance, and deputy Interior Minister, though the party is trying to get one more seat in exchange for the Industry portfolio.

Matichon reports they will get 4 seats. Industry Minister will be Ranongrak Suwanchawee. Deputy Finance will be Pichet Tuncharoen. ICT and deputy Interior are still uncertain.

The Nation:

Ruam Jai Thai Chart Pattana will get the Energy Minister and deputy Finance Minister for Pradit Pattaraprasit. Bhum Jai Thai (formerly Matchima Thipataya) may get the Natural Resources and Environment portfolio, and Commerce Minister

BP: Ruam Jai pick up Commerce? Matichon reports Energy will go to a relative of  Suwat Liptapunlaop. For Bhum Jai Thai, the wife of a friend of Somsak Thepsuthin will get Natural Resources and Environment and Manit Nopamornbadee will get Commerce - all that can be found on him is he in the construction and is big on amulets. He will be rewarded for keeping the Ratchaburi-Buriram group in line.

There is a new party of 5 MPs lead by Suwit - formerly of Puea Paendin. He wants to be a Minister, but instead will get a Deputy PM position.

Matichon also  reports  there is great competition in the Democrats for seats. The Democrat quota is 18 of 12 Ministers and 6 Deputies, but 3 positions for outside persons. They will get Interior, Defence, Foreign Affairs, and Education. The South region has 49 MPs and will get 3 seats. 35 MPs in the Central region will get 2. Bangkok has 28 MPs and will get 2. North and Northeast have 21 and get 1 each. Tension has positions will go based on seniority and many experienced MPs who have been without positions for 8 years.

BP: Will comment more once it is official, but you can see the power of the coalition parties. 

btw, remember when there were rumours that Puea Thai were offering 5 MPs per one Cabinet seat and this was some horrible bribe, haven't the Democrats offered virtually the same?

Korn in his final column for the Bangkok Post:

There was never a point, however, when we were able to fully discount Thaksin and his version of democracy - the use of significant sums of money to lure away votes from our camp. MPs across all parties report upwards of 30 million baht being offered for votes for Thaksin's camp. A mere decision to feign illness and abstention from voting for our camp was worth five million baht. This must be how he derives his majority and subsequent justification of his claim to power.

BP: So how were Newin and Co persuaded to join the Democrats? They left out of the goodness of their hearts? Or they were offered money and prime Cabinet posts? If you are believe Korn, the MPs turned down the 30 million+ baht and voted for Abhisit for no reward. Yeah right and the tooth fairy exists too. It is the "we are pure good people and all others are evil" argument from the Democrats which annoys BP the most about them.

The Nation in an editorial:

The Ministry of Foreign Affairs, after finally revoking the diplomatic red passport belonging to former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra, must now also revoke his standard passport. His legal status as a convicted criminal and fugitive should be understood by all countries. As a convicted felon, he is automatically disqualified from the right to possess a Thai passport. Thaksin is no different to any other Thai citizen who has a passport. This travel document belongs to the Thai government, and it can be withdrawn at any time.

BP: On the diplomatic passport, BP agrees, but on the standard passport, is this a new policy that will be applied to all? What about all the other Thai nationals who have been convicted of crimes, will their passports also be revoked? Sondhi L? Prasong Soonsiri? Vatana? The godfather of Chonburi? They have all been convicted of criminal offences including some of more serious offences than Thaksin. Is this a standard that will only be applied to Thaksin or is it a policy that will be applied to everyone? The Nation's definition of the rule of law seems to be that  exists when laws are enforced against Thaksin.

The Bangkok Post reports:

Police will take criminal action against members of the United Front of Democracy against Dictatorship (UDD) who were involved in Monday's protest outside parliament when Democrat party leader Abhisit Vejjajiva was elected as prime minister.

Deputy police chief Pol Gen Jongrak Chuthanont said the protesters will face charges over the piling up of metal barricades to block entrances to the parliament and attacking politicians and their vehicles.

The protesters were angry with MPs who voted for Mr Abhisit.

Key members of the coalition parties discuss the new government's policies at Democrat headquarters yesterday.

Those protesters captured on video footage would be charged with illegally detaining other people, destroying personal property and assaulting politicians, he said.

On Monday, about 100 red-shirt clad demonstrators broke through police lines and damaged cars belonging to MPs from the Democrat and Puea Pandin parties after they finished voting to elect the new prime minister.

Pol Gen Jongrak denied police were quick to seek the prosecution of the UDD supporters because a Democrat was leading the new government.

He said the protesters broke the law and must face the consequences.

He said police were obtaining footage from the media of the incidents.

BP: PAD had metal barricades outside their base in Rachadamnoern for months. They also set up barricades outside parliament too and then the airports? Are PAD members being charged for this? All who broke the law should be punished, but at the moment those in yellow shirts are not being punished. What happened to the charges against the PAD leaders for seizing the airports?

Thai Rath's political analysis on page three today first names the 32 PPP MPs* who were part of the "revolution against the big boss" and who voted for Abhisit as PM. The red shirts will remember the names. It is interesting the Northeast MPs who voted for Abhisit during the role call did so softly and silently ( สั้นๆเบาๆ) and gave the reason that it was necessary for the country and at the same time Newin was saying he still respects the "big boss". Compare this with those who voted for Puea Thai and who did so loudly and distinctly (อย่างชัดถ้อยชัดคำ). This was a declaration that they were not traitors to the "big boss".

There is news hot of the presses from from those in the losing camp that there was was a real "phone-in" but it was by a woman with powerful connections (มีเสียงของหญิง “เส้นใหญ่”) which changed the game. This was a phonecall to a powerful politician and the voice was put on speakerphone so others could hear. It was a request to allow the Democrats to form a government. Before the release of the numbers, a sponsor from the Soi Rang Nam area arranged a nice Benz. However, this is just a statement and there is no supporting evidence

A chicken sees the snake's foot and a snake sees the chicken's breast [this is a Thai proverb which means "two parties who know each other secrets"]

BP: "Big boss" is Thaksin. In the Soi Rang Nam area is the Pullman Hotel** which is Newin's base.

So is it true or not? Or was it Suthep's brilliant powers of persuasion? It is not as if the Democrats secretary-generals have needed any help in the past with forming coalitions and have been able to do so on their own, right?  Oh wait... Ultimately, it depends on which spin you believe as we only have statements and getting concrete evidence is not easy. 

*There have been a few different numbers thrown around, but 32 seems to be the number now - problem was there were different reports on how many MPs voted for Abhisit.

**Will the PAD drop their requirement for the cancellation of the duty-free area of the airport? Hint, have a look at the full name of the hotel in the Soi Rang Nam area.

NOTE: Be careful of speculating who that woman might be.

UPDATE: It should be noted that Abhisit's dad is also the former Chairman of the Royal Institute - see his journal from 2004. He has since been replaced by Manager columnist Chai-anan - he of political assassinations are the next option fame.

Abhisit has got a helping hand from the military to become PM. He is not the first person in the family to be helped by the military. His dad was actually once a Minister, albeit a Deputy Minister, in the Anand miltary-installed government of 1991-1992.

h/t to the long-time reader for the pointer.

The quotemeister in the Washington Post:

"He was hoisted into office by the back door," Thitinan Pongsudhirak, a political scientist, said of Abhisit. "The military have arm-twisted former government MPs to change sides; he's benefited from a kind of judicial veto exercised when the courts don't like the government, and the People's Alliance for Democracy has effectively blackmailed the legislature" to prevent another government formed by supporters of Somchai.

BP: This is best summed up by the last Zeer cartoon in Thai Rath (actually Zeer's cartoons over the last week have been on this theme)

Source: Thai Rath

Text reads: Difficult to Get, Even More Difficult to Keep

Description: Obviously, the person with strings attached being hoisted into the seat is Abhisit - a snake appears to be wrapped around his neck. The label on the chair reads "Abhisit 1". The seat is being propped up by military boots at the front, a hand that reads terrorism [refers to the PAD based on other Zeer cartoons] and the other back leg has the words "law" on it [referring to the judiciary]. Those on the left cheering - the masked person would seem to be a PAD guard - and the other two are probably just two generic Bangkok people in suits - are they anyone in particular? Those on the right am not sure as they appear to have the PAD hand-clappers, but usually they are mean to be symbolize the public/average folk [BP: Argh, they have the UDD foot clappers and not the PAD hand clappers so yes they are meant to be the UDD supporters].*

BP: That chair could get awfully wobbly...

*Thanks to James in the comments

Seth Mydans in IHT on Thaksin's demise:

When the vote for prime minister was taken, the defections held, and the most powerful politician in Thailand, Thaksin Shinawatra, had lost control of electoral politics for the first time this decade.

Deposed in a coup in 2006, the former prime minister, with his wealth and charisma, had continued - except for a year of military rule - to be the kingmaker in Thailand.

Now, a fugitive from justice, without a home and with $2 billion in assets frozen, his diplomatic passport gone and his regular passport at risk, he has at last been deserted by allies who sense the shifting of political winds.

"If you ask me, am I upset, am I sad?" he told supporters in a videotaped address on Saturday, "Yes, I am. I am human."

But many people here are wary.

"Yes, the mandate of heaven is drifting away, but I'm not sure it has completely died yet," said Chris Baker, a British historian and co-author of books about Thaksin. "We know that Thaksin is not a quitter in any way. So I think he will continue to play whatever reduced hand he still has, and that must be to try and disrupt this government as soon as possible."

The government that takes over now is a tenuous coalition headed by the opposition Democrat Party and its leader, Abhisit Vejjajiva, but dependent on some of the people who had been closest to Thaksin.

The balance of power is in the hands of Newin Chidchob, formerly one of Thaksin's closest lieutenants, who broke with him last week during a telephone call in which Newin is reported to have said, "Boss, it is over."

The new government takes office at a time of economic crisis and intense social and political divisions that have shaken two previous governments this year, and some analysts say it may be as short-lived as its predecessors.

"As long as things don't look rosy, I think he still has a role," Baker said.

"I think of people like Perón, who remained in the memory of the country's people for over a decade when he was absent," he said, referring to Juan Perón, the Argentine president who was ousted by the military in 1955 but continued to exert influence from abroad [BP: The analogy does fit well - see this blog post].

...

"In my view, he is politically dead," Ammar said. "But the Thaksin brand is something else."

Thaksin liked to brand himself the CEO prime minister, who would run Thailand like a top-down business.

His main political innovation was to win the support of the rural poor who form Thailand's electoral majority, providing them with low-interest loans, cash handouts and cheap medical care.

It is a policy Abhisit and the Democrats have begun to advocate as well, challenging Thaksin's franchise in the countryside.

"And that means there's been a takeover," Ammar said. "The chairman of the board has been sacked, the CEO has been sacked, but the company remains, and its main asset, the Thaksin brand name, is up for grabs."

At the same time, without a sympathetic government in power, Thaksin has become more vulnerable to the workings of government institutions.

"It used to be the courts that he had to worry about, but now the police, prosecutors, the stock market regulators and revenue officials will all work under the Democrats," The Nation newspaper said. "For a man whose billions of baht remain frozen, he will be very nervous."

For those inclined to be sympathetic to Thaksin, the parliamentary vote Monday was a poignant moment in the career of the man who had disdained and silenced his opponents and had said he wanted to remain prime minister for many years to come.

The night before the vote, according to The Nation, he was said to be busy making some heartbreaking phone calls to his home country.

"He was begging many people," The Nation said, quoting an unnamed source. "Please save me. Please save my life."

BP: Thaksin was also politically dead after the 2006 coup. Thaksin's personal return to politics and to actually take a political role (as in PM) seems very difficult, but that he will have an influence is very likely. It will not be easy for the Democrats to win over the Northeast voters and to think that if they throw 100 billion baht their way and in one year's time they will all be Democrat supporters is wisful thinking - it took many years and a number of personal visits by Thaksin to the Northeast to build up this support. 

The Democrats themselves have made numerous forays into the Northeast in the past and each time it has been a failure. As Korn candidly said at a recent FCCT event, the Democrats name is like mud in the Northeast and it has been this way for a while. Korn, in another candid moment, mentioned that the cost of the Democrats competing in the Northeast was basically prohibitive as the money they would have to expend so much money to overcome the anti-Democrat feeling and then they were not even guaranteed a win (the opposite applies to non-Democrats in the 

South except the Deep South). Yes, in some urban areas and in some parts of the lower Northeast, they and other parties have managed to pick up seasts, but still in much of the Northeast, they haven't.

The best the Democrats can hope for is a willing ally who has enough support in the Northeast. How long will Newin remain this willing ally is unknown as that depends on how much political strength Newin has (it seems he has 22 MPs now)

btw, BP didn't choose the headline, IHT did and it is an interesting choice...

h/t to an e-mailer for the article.

AP:

Many Thais, especially in the countryside, favor earthy, charismatic politicians. Abhisit, who counts "Myth of Sisyphus" by French existential novelist Albert Camus among his favorite books, lacks such grit.

Thaksin, by contrast, used to travel through the countryside, speaking the farmers' language and listening to their hardships.

"It's very difficult to imagine Abhisit in that same kind of performance with the same kind of results. He's a rather cool character. Thaksin is hot and open," said Chris Baker, a political scientist at Bangkok's Chulalongkorn University. "Of course he (Abhisit) can change. Power changes people enormously."

The rural-urban divide, which in large measure led to the current crisis, was clearly evident in reactions to Abhisit's victory.

"This is very bad for poor people. Abhisit was born with silver spoons and forks in his mouth. He knows nothing but wealth and privilege. How could he solve our problems?" said Chaiya Paitoonsiri, a taxi driver from the impoverished northeastern province of Maha Sarakam.

But a 26-year-old office worker in Bangkok, Nutta Tangtrakulchai, said, "It's nice to have someone smart for a change. He is also an economist so he should be savvy about solving the country's most important problem."

BP: Abhisit needs to convince Chaiya without alienating Nutta. Sounds simple, but it isn't.

Abhisit and Newin meet photoshop.

ANN:

Emerging from Parliament minutes after Mr Abhisit won the vote in the House, party MP Charoen Kanthawongs, a lawyer with the prominent firm Tilleke and Gibbins, told The Straits Times of the two priorities on which the Democrat-led coalition must focus.

First, stimulate the limping economy; second, heal a nation bitterly divided.

But Mr Charoen said he was not too worried about a geographical divide coalescing with a clear political divide. Bangkok and the south, where the Democrats are strong, are aligned against the more populous north and north-east, strongholds of the Puea Thai party.

'You see, people in the north-east are employees of people in Bangkok,' he said. 'My servants are from the north-east. Gas station attendants in Bangkok are from the north-east.'

Yet, his words summed up a shortcoming of the Democrats that many analysts are pointing out makes it unelectable on its own: it is a party of Bangkok elites.

BP: Seriously, this is not Not The Nation. This a quote from an actual Democrat MP. Puea Thai have some much fodder to tell people in the Northeast about how condescending the Democrats are that it becomes difficult to choose which one to use...

btw, the concerning thing for the Democrats is that they might not even realise they are being condescending ("You mean calling them stupid, uneducated, dark-skinned hicks is an insult?")

Bloomberg:

“Abhisit’s from a new generation of Thai leaders, but he’s not without limitations,” said Panitan Wattanayagorn, a political science lecturer at Bangkok’s Chulalongkorn University. “He needs to connect more with the grassroots.”

...

Born in northeast England because his father was studying there, Abhisit then spent his early years in Thailand. He returned to the U.K. to attend Eton, which has produced 18 British prime ministers. At Oxford, he graduated with a bachelor’s degree in philosophy, politics and economics and a master’s in economics. Johnson attended both with him.

In 1983, his gap year between Eton and Oxford, Abhisit, known as “Mark” to friends in Britain, invited Johnson to visit. The two traveled around Thailand, to Chiang Mai in the north and to the resort island of Phuket.

The new premier is “a man of intense integrity and of high intellectual gifts,” Johnson said in an e-mailed response to questions.

...

“Abhisit is mild, lacking in vision,” said Giles Ji Ungpakorn, a political science lecturer at Chulalongkorn University. “He’s just the right kind of guy for the establishment.”

BP: For a while this year Giles has been quiet, but no longer. 

Interesting to read he is a friend of BoJo (London Mayor Boris Johnson) as BP has long followed Bojo's career and is a Bojo supporter (can we not argue about British politics please?).

Andrew Drummond in the Daily Mail also has a quote from Bojo:

Mr Johnson, 44, said: 'He was an exact contemporary of mine at school and is a seriously clever fellow. I'm sure he's going to do great things in Thailand.' 

Abhisit, who has a reputation for clean politics, returned to Thailand after university.

...

Mr Vejjajiva entered Thai politics in the Nineties but is better known for his good looks rather than his policies, becoming something of a pin-up in Thai women's magazines.

He has campaigned on a ticket of ethics rather than authoritarianism, better education, an increased minimum wage, and will now almost certainly have to adopt and progress some of Thaksin Shinawatra's policies to support the poor people in north eastern Thailand, who brought Thaksin Shinawatra to power.

...

Mr Abhisit and his party enjoy strong support from the middle class and many in the business sector. 

But Sukhum Nuansakul, a political scientist at Bangkok's Ramkhamhaeng University, said the hopes of many for a respite from political instability was likely to be short-lived.

'The fundamental problem has not been resolved,' he said. 

'A Democrat win sets the stage for another round of street protests, this time by pro-Thaksin groups.'

Panithan Wattanayagorn, a political analyst from Bangkok's Chulalongkorn University, predicted that Abhisit was going to face 'among Thailand's roughest premierships'.

'His leadership qualities are untested. He has not suggested a bold solution (to the crisis). A lot of people have no patience for that, especially when public opinion is so extreme on both sides. That is his weakness and that lack of decisiveness and clear political stance could turn against him very quickly,' he said.

BP: On Abhisit's clean reputation, you will note that the worse that Puea Thai are able to throw at him is draft dodging (he was a lecturer instead of a grunt and a year late and it seems likely not all the t's were cross and i's dotted) which in the realms of what goes on in Thai politics is not a severe political charge - separate question of whether there are any legal problems. Then again, few would accuse former Democrat leader Chuan of being corrupt, but corruption was all around him when he was in government and he basically turned a blind eye to it for the covenience of keeping his government intact.

It is only a matter of time before there is some corruption scandal - well unless his government doesn't last long enough - and it is likely to come from either one of the old-style Democrats or a coalition partner (cough Newin cough transport cough). How Abhisit will deal with this will mark his leadership? This is probably more important for Abhisit than most given the Democrats and the press have been creating this aura of the Democrats being the "pure" party. A few pin pricks here and there and all the air will come out of the bubble. Fortunately, for Abhisit, the standard for a good response is not high and if he can have enough control over his party and get Ministers in trouble to resign (as he basically forced Apirak as Governor to do) he can truthfully then claim that he is candidate of change and things are different. Interestingly, this would then deflate the PAD bubble of the need for "New Politics" to achieve what they want.

WSJ opinion piece entitled The 'Silent Coup'. Key excerpt:

To get here, Mr. Abhisit's party has done what some describe as a "deal with the devil," luring away pro-Thaksin MPs by offering them important cabinet portfolios and undermining the Democrats' ability to steer policy. This fragile coalition appears to be united only by its desire to be in power. On top of that, the coalition has a slender parliamentary majority -- Mr. Abhisit was elected by a margin of 237-198 -- and by-elections next month will make that majority even slimmer.

The immediate task of the new government will be to help Thailand weather effects of the global financial crisis. Thai officials forecast GDP growth of 2% or less next year, and Thailand's tourism sector, which comprises around 6% of GDP, has been hurt by the recent airport occupations that stranded thousands of travelers. Mr. Abhisit, an Oxford-educated economist, says he will lead his economic team himself, and previously suggested that Thailand needs a large-scale stimulus package.

In the long term, however, the government must consider how to restore the power of elected officials and make Thailand a real democracy again. Elected politicians' roles have been undermined both by the 2006 coup, and by the military-imposed constitution, which mandates that only half the Senate is elected. Mr. Abhisit and his party have in the past said they would support constitutional amendments that would give more power to elected politicians. But given the fragile state of their coalition and the threat that anti-Thaksin protesters, who oppose such amendments, would return, they're unlikely to pursue this agenda.

Mr. Abhisit is Thailand's third prime minister in as many months. While he has the support of the military and the Bangkok elite, it will be difficult for him to win over pro-Thaksin rural voters, who remain angry at ouster of the duly elected government. Thailand's recent turmoil has been a battle between those who benefit from democracy, and those who don't. For now, the latter group is winning. Mr. Abhisit, despite his best intentions, may not be able to do much about that.

BP: It is the majority that the Democrats will have which is an interesting issue now with 29 by-elections scheduled for January 11, 2009. Last night, at a "Puea Thai event" you had Pracha of Puea Paendin (who Puea Thai supported for PM) and some other Puea Paendin MPs there and the Thienthongs as well as all the Puea Thai bigwigs including members of the Thaksin clan (his son made an appear). How many will stick with Puea Thai? If they have 195+ and do well in the by-elections it will be a close thing when it comes to the no-confidence vote. 

btw, that Matichon reports that Thaksin called Puea Thai MPs to tell them that it is a loss today, but they can win tomorrow.

There was talk in August that they would be put before Cabinet, but Sopon in his op-ed today raises them again:

The toughest challenge will be for Abhisit to ruffle big feathers by introducing property taxes, limit landholding and the long-awaited inheritance tax. Next on the agenda is restructuring of the national police and the due process of law. Has anybody noticed if he has started sweating yet? 

BP: There are already property taxes so it is assumed he actually means land taxes given they and inheritance taxes were only discussed a few months ago and are being pushed by the Ministry of Finance. Limiting landholding does not seem necessary - can't remember any mention of this before? - if you tax land - land would be taxed at different values. Will Abhisit introduce them? If so, how will the elite respond?

btw, if due process of law is next on the agenda, does that mean that Sopon thinks that there has been no due process of law recently?

Socially engaged Buddhist Sulak has been an open PAD supporter since 2006 - when he went up on stage to compare Thaksin with a dog - now Krungthep Turakit reports that the actions of the PAD in the seizing of Government House and the airports is their right to do so/exercise (การกระทำของพันธมิตรประชาชนเพื่อประชาธิปไตย เข้ายึดสถานที่ต่างๆ นั้นถือเป็นสิทธิที่สามารถทำได้) as the government didn't do anything.  If the government was smart enough it could disperse the protesters peacefully, but the government could not do so because the police and the military have "many issues"

BP: Their right to do so? Is this some constitutionally enshrined right?

Matichon reports that that police have filed criminal charges against the red shirt protesters. They are awfully quick...

The Nation:

Police threatened yesterday to take legal action against "red-shirt" protesters who threw rocks at vehicles leaving Parliament, causing damage and injuries.

Police had photos and videos of rowdy protesters and would take action against them, Lt Gen Suchart Muenkaew of the Metropolitan Police said.

The protesters, who support former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra and the Pheu Thai Party, turned violent after learning that Democrat Party leader Abhisit Vejjajiva was elected prime minister.

They used police's barriers to briefly block the gates of Parliament. After the blockade was broken, the protesters waited beside a gate and threw rocks at vehicles leaving the Parliament compound.

Windscreens and windows of several vehicles were smashed and several people, including a reporter, were injured.

They also threw stones and objects into the Parliament compound, forcing officials and reporters to take cover.

Suchart said police managed to control the situation after the protesters dispersed outside Parliament and regrouped at Sanam Luang.

More police were deployed to the area but they failed to calm the protesters. Police had to use shields to push the mob back. Vehicles were allowed to leave the compound.

BP: The Manager is calling them an savage devilish/hellish red gang (แก๊งนรก! “เสื้อแดงเถื่อน”) - oh the irony of complaining about other groups attacking people. The photos at The Manger website show some thugs with concrete (TV last night said there was some works going on with a nearby footpath) and one knife damaging one car. Perhaps, the police can go and arrest them together with those from the PAD too. Well, perhaps...

h/t to a reader for one of the links.

The Bangkok Post:

With more than 100,000 motorcycle taxis operating in the Bangkok alone (according to a Bangkok Metropolitan Administration [BMA] officer), it is a huge workforce generating large revenues. No one really knows the exact amount, but some sources estimate it at tens of millions of baht a month.

An indication of how much the business is worth can be found in a September 2002 news story that estimates that in Bangkok gangs were extorting at least 100 million baht a month - or around 1.2 billion baht a year - from motorcycle taxis.

Bangkok-born Prasert Chalernsisuk, 41, who has been a motorcycle taxi driver for 10 years, says as Bangkok grew, the bikes were the logical solution to the traffic problems.

"The first motorcycle taxis appeared in mid-1981 in soi Ngam Duplee, in the Sathon district of Bangkok, followed by others in the Don Muang and Bang Kapi districts.

``Until 2003, before the BMA finally stepped in and ended the monopoly on this lucrative and money-making industry, every motorcycle taxi had to pay from 700 to 3,000 baht a month [depending on the area] to their group's leader, who passed it to the gang that controlled their area. Now, we don't have to pay anything at all. We are free of dark influences and we can keep what we earn.''

He also mentioned that motorcycle taxis don't have to pay any income tax at the moment, although plans are under way to levy such a tax.

BP: It was a joint effort between the BMA (Samak was governor then) and the central government. Odd that The Nation rarely mentions this given its concern about corruption...

btw, on the personal income tax issue, given their low wages and Thailand's high income tax threshold before payment of income taxes, would they pay any income taxes? There is the social security issue, but don't know enough about tax law on what happens with independent contractors.

No, this is not about the separatists frogs, but about international law. There is a Protocol called the Montreal Protocol and it is a "Protocol for the Suppression of Unlawful Acts of Violence at Airports Serving International Civil Aviation, Montreal 1988" and Protocol 2 dealing with the "Suppression of unlawful acts of violence at airports serving international civil aviation" - Thailand is (PDF) a signatory.

The intro states:

Considering that unlawful acts of violence which endanger or are likely to endanger the safety of persons at airports serving international civil aviation or which jeopardize the safe operation of such airports undermine the confidence of the peoples of the world in safety at such airports and disturb the safe and orderly conduct of civil aviation for all States;

Considering that the occurrence of such acts is a matter of grave concern to the international community and that, for the purpose of deterring such acts, there is an urgent need to provide appropriate measures for punishment of offenders;

Then:

Article II

In Article 1 of the Convention, the following shall be added as new paragraph 1 bis:

"1 bis. Any person commits an offence if he unlawfully and intentionally, using any device, substance or weapon:

performs an act of violence against a person at an airport serving international civil aviation which causes or is likely to cause serious injury or death; or

destroys or seriously damages the facilities of an airport serving international civil aviation or aircraft not in service located thereon or disrupts the services of the airport, if such an act endangers or is likely to endanger safety at that airport.

BP: Food for thought given the armed weapons and attacks on police near the airport (was this on airport grounds?) and numerous other bombs that went off.

h/t to the long-time reader.

Nirmal Ghosh in the Strait Times: 

Mr Abhisit told reporters he was 'ready to work immediately' to tackle the kingdom's economic woes.

'If the Democrat Party has the chance to become the government, we will restore confidence within next two or three months,' he said yesterday.

The government may not last more than a few months as resentment builds in Puea Thai, manifested in the pro-democracy 'red shirt' movement.

The Democrats will also have to appease the anti-Thaksin, right-wing People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD), distinguishable by their yellow shirts. Yellow is the colour of the king.

'The Democrats won't last long; they will be attacked from two sides - red and yellow,' red shirt supporter Jaran Ditta- apichai, a former human rights commissioner, told The Straits Times.

The red shirts demand amendments to harsh provisions in the Constitution that make political parties vulnerable and have been responsible for the court decision to dissolve the ruling party.

They also demand action against the PAD for its seizures of Government House and Bangkok's two airports.

Meanwhile, the PAD last week issued 13 demands for the new government, foremost of which was political reform that would 'install new politics that will not see a recurrence of past political crisis'.

...

Pro-democracy activist Weng Tochirakarn told The Straits Times on the sidelines of Saturday's rally: 'This country is in a state of anarchy.

'The rule of law has been destroyed by the PAD, who believe they are above the Constitution. The red shirts would respect demands provided they are not above the law.'

Having shown its hand, and despite its denials, the army is now fair game for the red shirts, and came in for bold criticism at Saturday's rally - a measure of the frustration of Thaksin's supporters.

Many of those who turned up at the rally said they were not necessarily pro- Thaksin but definitely pro-democracy and against army interference.

BP: As of today, it will be an achievement to last until the end of next year, but one has to qualify by noting (and stating the obvious) it really depends on what the government does. If it this time next year, Abhisit is still PM and there has been no election, it will be achievement. Much will depend on the reds and the yellows and how they respond to the government and how the state interacts with them.

Unsurprisingly, Giles doesn't hold back in his latest piece for the Asia Sentinel. An introduction:

The appointment Monday of "Democrat" Party leader Abhisit Vejjajiva as the new Thai prime minister is the final stage of the second coup against an elected government.

After the deliberate chaos created by the PAD's seizure of the airports, the courts stepped in to dissolve the hugely popular governing party for the second time. The Army chief then called a meeting of Democrat Party parliamentarians along with some of the most corrupt elements of the governing coalition parties. It is widely believed that the Army chief and others, threatened and bribed MPs to change sides. Chief among them is "Newin Chitchorp", who was named by his father after the infamous Burmese dictator.

The Democrat Party is known among the cyber community as the "Cockroach Party". This is because cockroaches live in filthy places and can survive even nuclear holocausts. The party has survived for many years, forming governments after various crises. These so-called Democrats have systematically backed anti-democratic measures. They supported the 2006 coup, the military constitution and the PAD. One Democrat Party MP was the leader of the mob that took over the international airport.

Over the last 30 years, the Democrat party has never won an overall majority in parliament. It does not represent the people. During the Thaksin years it spent the whole time criticising the universal health care scheme and other pro-poor policies. After the 1997 economic crisis it used state money to prop up the banks and guarantee the savings of the rich, while telling the poor to fend for themselves and depend on their families. Even Abhisit's name in Thai means "privilege". He is an Oxford graduate from a wealthy family.

BP: The term "cockroach party" is a little too harsh, but his critique of the Democrats is devastating in parts. Will Newin change the perception of the Democrats?

Hamish McDonald, Asia-Pacific Editor, of the Sydney Morning Herald has an op-ed entitled "Monarchy Damaged by Elites" (google is one's friend). Some excerpts:

THE election of the opposition candidate Abhisit Vejjajiva as Thailand's new prime minister yesterday signals the apparent victory of the country's elitists who flew the royal colours in their long destabilisation campaign to win power.

The campaign was ostensibly to save the country's revered monarchy, personified in King Bhumibol Adulyadej, against the machinations of an alleged usurper, the exiled telecom tycoon and former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra. But in looking back on the activities of the self-proclaimed royalists over the past three years in Thailand, future historians may well comment: they destroyed the monarchy, or came very close to that, in order to save it.

Vejjajiva, a product of Eton and Oxford, is one of those suave "old school Thais" who will persuade many outside observers that all is now set right. But Thailand's political system is now on very shaky foundations. Thaksin was no paragon of virtue. He got his telecom billions by playing the government licensing game. He devoted some of that money to bribing the rural poor. Once in power, he proceeded to undercut the institutions supposed to control abuse of office.

He licensed former police colleagues to execute suspected drug traffickers and encouraged such a draconian response to Muslim unrest in the southern provinces that their Malay population might never really accept Bangkok's rule again.

Yet he was elected in an open vote, and after he was ejected in the Thai Army's 2006 coup and fled abroad from corruption charges, he got his proxies elected again in December 2007. Though now disqualified by dubious court rulings, those proxies might yet win again whenever a vote is held.

The processes of getting Thaksin out of power and keeping him out has damaged all the "reserve" powers in the Thai system: the judicial system, the military and the monarchy.

The military is damaged because after taking power in 2006 it showed itself not up to the task of running the semi-industrial, relatively open economy that Thailand has now become. The judiciary because of absurd strictness towards the Thaksin camp - disqualifying his first elected proxy PM, Samak Sundaravej, for running a TV cooking show - while allowing the opposition to occupy government offices.

The monarchy, by the royal tolerance of the street-power politics of the former opposition, the misnamed People's Alliance for Democracy, who actually want elected MPs to form only 30 per cent of the parliament and the army to be formally empowered to intervene against perceived corruption or misgovernment.

King Bhumibol made no public objection to the use of the royal yellow colour as the PAD's campaign emblem throughout its sieges of central Bangkok and latterly of the city's two airports, marked by increasing thuggery and use of lethal weapons. When one opposition protester was killed by an exploding police tear gas cylinder, Queen Sirikit came to the funeral and paid the expenses. Leaked phone calls between judges make it clear they were acting on royal prompting in the judgments against Thaksin's party.

BP: As blogged already, the damage done to the various institutions in Thailand by recent events is not minor and the extent of that damage will become more obvious over time.

h/t to the readers

The Nation:

Thailand's projected economic growth for 2009 has been revised downward by research houses to between 0.5 per cent and 1.5 per cent, on the back of rapidly falling global demand and domestic political concerns. A UOB KayHian report yesterday said the gloomier macroeconomic outlook had prompted its economic team to aggressively downgrade Thailand's economic growth projection for next year.

It has scaled down projected growth from the previous 3.2 per cent to only 0.5 per cent.

"The recent political blow-out, which resulted in a temporary shutdown of both international airports, will have serious implications for the Kingdom's economic outlook," UOB KayHian said.

DBS Global Research issued a report yesterday cutting its growth forecast for Thailand in 2009 to 1.5 per cent, from the previous prediction of 3.2 per cent. The 2008 growth forecast has also been revised downward, from 4.9 per cent to 4.4 per cent.

"The reduction in growth comes mainly from a weaker fourth quarter of 2008 and first quarter of 2009, led by a disappointing export performance," it said. "In Thailand's case, domestic political developments are also a concern. If the Democrats come back to power, it is possible that we will see a resolution to the political crisis, but it is too early to be sure about this."

Bloomberg:

 For decades, Thailand’s rotating-door politics was a sideshow for companies and investors. The recent eight-day seizure of Bangkok’s airports by anti-government protesters changed that.

“They could camp out in Government House for five years and nobody would really notice,” said Christopher Bruton, a director at Bangkok-based Dataconsult Ltd., which does market research for companies looking to invest in Southeast Asia. “But camp out in the airport and you get noticed pretty quickly.”

...

“In the past when there was a problem, most of the protesters would directly go to the government,” said Pramon Sutivong, president of the Thai Chamber of Commerce, in an interview. “But this time we feel the protesters went too far by taking the country’s economy as a hostage to force what they are trying to do.”

...

As long as the constitution favors unelected bureaucrats and judges over elected politicians, instability will continue, Kristina Kazmi, an Asia analyst, wrote in a report for IHS Global Insight, a U.S.-based research firm.

“If the parliament does indeed elect a prime minister, the PAD does not approve of, the same cycle of protests and deadlock will start again,” she wrote in the Dec. 2 report.

Similar protests may push some new investment to other Southeast Asian countries, including Vietnam, Indonesia and Malaysia, because such lawlessness encourages street gangs in Bangkok, some business leaders said.

“Even investors who have known Thailand for a long time are afraid things might get out of hand,” said Nandor von der Luehe, chairman of the Joint Foreign Chambers of Commerce in Thailand. “That underlines how bad the situation looks.”

Canceled Bookings

Worst affected by the airport closure is the travel industry, which accounts for 12 percent of Thailand’s economy. Many tourists canceled bookings, leaving hotels empty during the peak season. Some hotels reported occupancy rates in single digits, said Andrew J. Wood, president of Skal International Bangkok, a travel-industry group.

“Across the board, 100 percent of all businesses that rely on foreign tourists are affected because it completely dried up,” he said. “It is an absolute disaster for the hotel and hospitality industry, and it will take some time to recover.”

Thai Airways International Pcl, the nation’s largest carrier, said it would likely lose 20 billion baht in sales because of the airport closures, putting in on course for its first loss in 45 years.

“Foreign investors have been very tolerant of Thai politics over the years,” said Mark Hutchinson, a Singapore-based executive who works in the region. “It never really injected itself into the true functioning of their business -- until now.”

Bob McKee in the WSJ:

Thailand has suffered through many political crises since World War II, but most were shrugged off by a dynamic class of entrepreneurs that got on with business despite the politicians. But today's conjunction of a global economic slump and serious political paralysis could be very painful.

Thailand's economic growth is now slowing fast, down to 4% in the third quarter versus the same period last year. The Finance Ministry, in a rare moment of candor in early November, said it expects growth will slow to below 1% next year. Earlier this year, the government announced a more expansionary fiscal policy for next year. That plan is now in question, given the Constitutional Court's decision earlier this month to dissolve the ruling People's Power Party and two of its coalition allies for electoral fraud, in what was seen as a virtual coup.

A new government could be in place next week, but it will take awhile for them to formulate a response to the economic crisis. In the meantime, the policy stasis has forced the Bank of Thailand to reverse policies aimed at controlling inflation and to cut interest rates to avoid a sharp economic slowdown. Its key lending rate now stands at 2.75%, the lowest since mid-2005. The cut in early December of one percentage point was the biggest ever. I expect interest rates to fall to at least 1% by mid-2009, and they could go lower.

That's because Thailand is more dependent on external demand to maintain economic growth than many countries in Asia -- only Hong Kong, Singapore and Malaysia are more vulnerable. Thailand's external trade balance is deteriorating, moving from surplus to deficit in the last reported quarter. In October, exports fell nearly 5% over the same period last year in dollar terms -- and more, when calculated in baht. The current account deficit is now at $1 billion. As a result, the Thai baht has fallen to a two-year low versus the U.S. dollar.

Thailand's economic downturn could exceed the SARS crisis of 2002-3 or the tsunami of 2004-5. The country's important tourism industry will surely suffer. The closure of the Bangkok airport for a week earlier this month has probably done Thailand some permanent damage; during that blockage, occupancy rates at five-star hotels in Bangkok ran at about 4% of available rooms. Tourism directly contributes 6.5% of Thailand's GDP and four to five percentage points of that figure is collected between November and March. A full 70% of the tourist industry's profits are made over that period.

Making matters worse, the other bulwark for Thailand's export revenues is looking down the barrel of collapsing demand. The price of rice -- one of the country's staple exports -- is well down from its previous peaks and it is unlikely to rise soon, given the slowdown in global demand.

The economic pain is now showing up in business earnings, which were down about 14% in the third quarter over the same period last year. Foreign investors responded by dumping Thai stocks at an increasing rate, selling over $300 million worth in the last few weeks. The country's sovereign debt rating has been downgraded to negative from stable. And the credit default swap premium on its debt has already moved out to a record high, suggesting that investors don't have much confidence in the country's solvency.

Today, in the Bangkok Post:

Thailand's economy could still achieve growth of 2% or better next year if the government can succeed in resuming megaproject investments, reviving tourism, and ending political conflict, according to the state planning agency.

"The Thai economy is likely to reach its bottom by the third quarter of next year before it picks up gradually in the fourth quarter," said Ampon Kittiampon, the secretary-general of the National Economic and Social Development Board (NESDB).

However, Mr Ampon is not certain whether the Thai economy would contract in the first half, as the impact from the world economic crisis is expected to grow during that period.

The planning agency said recently that the week-long airport closures and the global financial crisis were expected to cut Thailand's economic growth next year by more than 1%.

Previously, the agency forecast gross domestic product (GDP) expansion next year at 3-4%, but the forced closure of Suvarnabhumi and Don Mueang airports by the anti-government People's Alliance for Democracy prompted the NESDB to revise its projection.

It estimated the closure of the airports would cut GDP by 0.3-0.5% in the fourth quarter and result in lost revenue of 104 billion baht in November and December.

BP: Almost all doom and gloom except the banking industry is still in reasonable shape.  It is a tough task which awaits Abhisit and the economic team.

Those at The Nation have long criticised the quota system - see here and here (i.e Cabinet positions are divvied up to a faction according to how many MPs they control)

Avudh in The Nation expects that things might be different in our new era of hope and change:

Expectations are high that Abhisit, who can "saw through" his three predecessors, should be able to avoid repeating their mistakes. It remains to be seen whether he will heed the very advice he has so painstakingly given to others in a bid to overcome the turmoil.

In spite of the excitement about the last-ditch fight by Pheu Thai Party, the installation of Abhisit as Thailand's 27th prime minister is expected to be completed before the New Year celebrations.

Formation of the Cabinet will definitely be a litmus test for Abhisit's leadership. The country will have a better chance of achieving stability if Abhisit and his coalition partners think things through instead of making hasty choices for their Cabinet line-up.

If Abhisit allows partisan interests to dominate the horse-trading for Cabinet seats, his government is bound for doom even before taking off.

Disturbing allegations have already been circulating that the Chart Thai Pattana Party will hold on to ministerial portfolios previously allocated by the Somchai government to the disbanded Chart Thai Party and that the Friends of Newin faction will get plum assignments relating to the mega-projects for mass transport in Bangkok.

The credibility of the Cabinet and prospect of ministers being able to work as a team are key factors in restoring public confidence. A Democrat-led coalition could become a problem rather than a solution if it blindly subscribes to the partisan quotas condoned by the outgoing administration.

"If the Democrat Party forms the government, I will try to boost confidence and revive the tourism industry and the image of the country," Abhisit said in his first interview on Sunday, after emerging as the top contender for the premiership.

In his subsequent remarks, he emphasised that he would do away with the quota system when allocating Cabinet seats to Democrats, although he was still obligated to heed nominations submitted by coalition partners.

BP: Then again the tooth fairy and Santa Claus may exist too so we shouldn't be so sceptical of Abhisit's claims. 

Democrat Sec-Gen and power broker Suthep today is quoted in Matichon as stating that the quota system for coalition partners will be the same/as agreed - that each will be responsible for the same portfolios they were when we had the PPP-led government - regardless of today's vote for PM (สำหรับการจัดสรรโควต้าตำแหน่งรัฐมนตรีให้กับพรรคร่วมรัฐบาลนั้น จะยึดหลักการตามที่ได้ตกลงไว้ว่าจะให้รับผิดชอบงานเดิมที่เคยได้รับมอบหมายในสมัยที่พรรคพลังประชาชนเป็นแกนนำรัฐบาล)

 

BP: Does this mean that Abhisit has no control and he won't bring change to Bangkok? BP is shocked! How will those at The Nation recover? Or will they call this a move away from dictatorial politics to a way of governing by consensus? 

Now, comes Cabinet speculation. The interesting one will be Foreign Minister. Kasit? Kraisak? or someone from the outside? Surely, Korn has to be Finance Minister, former BOT Governor M.R. Chatu as Deputy PM, Prawit or Winai for Defence. Will check the papers over the next few days.

Thai Rath quotes Suthep as thanking the 71 MPs of the former coalition partners who voted for Abhisit. Someone at Practhai webboard has compiled a list of the 71 with their name, party, and their constituency (can't find anyway to check the accuracy yet as the newspaper sites don't seem to list who voted for who, but the list of 71 MPs was posted before Suthep mentioned the 71 number). 

BP: From a quick count, there are 8 for Matichima, 14 for Chat Thai Pattana, 34 from PPP, 11 from Puea Paendin, 4 from Ruam Jai Thai Chat Pattana,

This differs slightly with the earlier numbers of the dress rehearsal; Newin Faction (22), the defunct Chart Thai (13), defunct Matchima Thipataya (9), Ruamjai Thai/Chat Pattana (8), Sora-at Klinprathum faction (2).

BP: Anyone want to do a breakdown of who might be vulnerable at the next election? There is even one PPP MP from Chiang Mai who crossed over to vote for Abhisit. There are also quite a few from Surin and unsurprisingly Buriram.

UPDATE: Occasional poster has an interesting comment:

There were always rumours of more PPP crossing but keeping quiet about it. It seems this happened along with some assumed Dem supporters going back the other way.

The by-elections 16 CT and 13 PPP will be interesting. I had assumed the majority would go down but if CT hold them all it goes up and maybe with it CTs cabinet allocation!

Anyone in the upper north and upper Isaan or one fo the central provinces with a strong PPP godfather figure in it will be vulnerable. I would assume that Newin can contorl hid direct turf especially consdiering at the last election his turf was the most targetted of all PPP turf by the military, so in theory Newin will do even better.

BP: But Newin lost out to the allies off his in current government so if he does better he will only be taking away votes from Puea Paendin or the other new coalition parties. The by-elections will be crucial though for a test on any shift of momentum. 

The comment continues:

It will also depend on how long the coalition last and what polices they enact. Do the people of Isaan and upper north want Thaksin or do they want his polices. that question may well be answered if the Dem government lasts over a year. I would think that Newin coming on board means a deal whereby the Isaan gets populist policies flying out left right and center.

What happens at the next election may also depend on what Abhisit does with the 111 and Thaksin. If a deal is done with Thaksin there may be no need for a PTP anymore and its funding and alliances split up. If an amnesty of the non-criminal elements of the 111 is done there may also be Dem/Newin friendly subtext to the deal. There are a lot of imponderables.

BP: Not so sure about Puea Thai breaking up. A larger party does much better in this electoral system in terms of the number of MPs. If they break-up they will just get fewer MPs.  An amnesty for the 111 would help Newin and the other former PPP factions, but also Puea Thai.

Not sure how the PAD will respond to populist policies. It took a number of years and Thaksin's personality (of visiting the provinces) for Thaksin to build up support. It will be very difficult for Abhisit to take this away in a short period of time. It will take a number of years. 

As for the Chiang Mai MP, we shoudlnt forget that at the last CM mayoral election a Dem running as an independent defeated the TRT candidate, so it may depend on which actual constituency.

BP: Candidate was from Constituency No. 3 (Constituency No. 1 is normally the muang/urban part). 

The Nation:

Abhisit, 44, was [born] into an elite family. He is well educated, has great composure and manners, and is an eloquent speaker with strong debating skills.

...

Political achievements: Abhisit became Opposition leader after the 2005 election. On his website he says his outstanding achievement was the no-confidence debate on the purchase of the CTX bomb scanners for Suvarnabhumi Airport. He was a Prime Minister's Office Minister handling education reform, bureaucratic reform, and created mechanisms for anti-corruption policies

Bloomberg has a more interesting profile with some quotes:

Opposition leader Abhisit Vejjajiva was elected Thailand’s third prime minister in four months in a victory for the middle-class elite, who engaged in violent protests against governments chosen by the rural majority.

Lawmakers voted 235 to 198 for U.K.-born Abhisit, whose Democrat party wooed some members of the former ruling coalition to back him after protesters vowed to return to the streets if anyone else became prime minister. Three people abstained. Abhisit, 44, replaces Somchai Wongsawat, who was disqualified on Dec. 2 when a court dissolved his People Power Party for vote buying.

“Abhisit hasn’t put his foot in much rubbish so he’s one of the more credible parliamentarians out there,” said Prudhisan Jumbala, a political science lecturer at Bangkok’s Chulalongkorn University. “A number of people hope he can last a bit longer to put the house a little more in order before dissolving Parliament and calling for new elections.”

...

“The Democrats have more Western-educated lawmakers, so there may be more synergy in the way they talk to foreign investors,” Peter van Haren, former chairman of the Joint Foreign Chambers of Commerce, said today before the vote. “We want to see forward movement, some stability in policy making.”

Abhisit, born in northeast England, attended Eton College, which has produced 18 British prime ministers in the past four centuries. At Oxford University, he received a philosophy, politics and economics degree and a master’s degree in economics. Abhisit won his first election in 1992 at age 27 and became party leader in 2005.

...

“Abhisit united different factions who wanted to see unity and peace in the country, but they are not aligned because of common policy,” said Somjai Phagaphasvivat, a political science lecturer at Thammasat University. “It could hold together for about six months before conflicts emerge again.”

BP: There will be great disputes about how to address the economy particularly if the non-Democrat factions have control over the key ministries. Abhisit's job is to manage the public expectations while Suthep (Dem power-broker) manages the coalition dealings.

UPDATE: Matichon reports there were 4 injuries. One MP suffered some small injuries at the hand of the protesters and 3 protesters were injured when someone from a green mercedes Benz three some liquid believed to be acid at the protesters.

BP: It would have to be a merc.

The Red Army (pun intended) is outside of parliament now. Nirmal of the Strait Times blogs:

11 am: Minutes after Abhisit Vejjajiva won the vote & became 27th PM of Thailand the few hundred red shirts outside the gates flew into a frustrated rage, crashing yellow street barriers against the gates of parliament and hurling debris @ police inside the fence.

MPs began exiting in cars thru a side gate @ 1130 and cars were pelted with chunks of concrete as police struggled 2 clear a path.

11.50 am: It's lucky there are not more red shirts here. They are looking into cars to see who is in it and non-Puea Thai MPs are being mobbed, cars kicked and thumped, a big chunk of concrete crashed thru the rear window of 1 vehicle as it sped away.

1.00 pm: Puea Thai MPs are being given free passage. They have windows down and waving. Nasty attacks on non-puea thai - road littered with broken glass in the melee.

BP: The times appear from the Singapore time zone (1 hour ahead of Bangkok). Matichon has some photos. The Manager also has photos - it seems they broke through the temporary metal barricades in front of the gates and were using them to block the Parliament gate. Matichon reports they then opened the same gate and allowed the MPs to leave although notes that as of now there is no violence (ไม่มีความรุนแรงใดเกิดขึ้น) and 100 cars have been allowed to leave.

By all reports there are not that many of them, but again the police are unable to hold up law and order. MPs should be free to enter and leave parliament so why not just enforce the law from now on? Why can't they set up the barricades 100 metres away and arrest people who break through? The actions today, even if of only a few, shows they are on the start to become the PAD, the group they were protesting against. Let's hope they stick to protesting at designated venues to ensure there is no violence.

This post was started the middle of last week and so reflected the polls then.

Not a big fan of the Suan Dusit polls for way they frame the questions (ie. do you want peace and unity in Thailand?), but this one seems ok. The Bangkok Post:

A survey from Suan Dusit Rajabhat University’s Suan Dusit Poll revealed that many people wanted to see a change in political power.

The survey was conducted from last Thursday to Monday with 3,003 respondents across Thailand.

57.82 per cent wanted to the next government to be set up by a new ruling party [BP: This also means that 42% want the same].

39.73 per cent perceived that the new prime minister should be a moral and honest person who is respected by the general public.

The top five candidates who the respondents wanted to see taking the premier's post included Democrat party leader Abhisit Vejjajiva with 41.80 per cent, Democrat chief adviser Chuan Leekpai with 25.56 per cent, former industry minister Mingkwan Sangsuwan 17.29 per cent, Gen Chetta Thanajaro with 4.96, and Pol Gen Pracha Promnok 3.88.

43.08 per cent wanted the new administration to urgently address economic, unemployment and people's well-being issues, while 28.93 per cent wanted to preserve the democratic regime and eradicate corruption.

11.51 per cent wanted to see the revival of tourism industry by restoring tourist confidence and increasing security measures. 9.03 per cent said education standard in the country must be raised, and 7.45 per cent said the government must mend the social rift and people's psychological conditions.

BP: The poll surveyed 3,003 people and 38% of those poll are from Bangkok with the rest from outside. The poll was conducted between December 4-8. It asks two questions on who people want to be PM. The one included in the Post article is the answer to those who are legally qualified to be PM. Another question just asks generally who they want to be PM. The answers are 41% for Anand, 26% for Abhisit, 12% for Thaksin, and 9% for Chuan.

The top 5 problems that people want the new government solve are:

1. economic problems/unemployment 43.08% (49% for Bangkok compared with 37% for outside of Bangkok), 

2. reform the system to make it democratic/corruption 29% (24% in Bangkok compared with 34% outside of Bangkok).

3. Tourism/security of travellers entering Thailand/more tourists 12%

4. Increasing educational standards 9% (7% in Bangkok compared with 12% outside of Bangkok).

5. Society/disunity 7% (10% in Bangkok compared with 5% outside of Bangkok).   

BP: Interesting divisions between those in Bangkok and those outside of Bangkok on (1), (2), (4), and (5) - no real difference for (3).  For (2), does this mean they want new politics or does it mean they want an elected Senate?

Another Suan Dusit poll conducted between December 7-9 notes that 38% want the Democrats to form the next government compared with only 11% for Puea Thai.

BP: These polls are good news for Abhisit and the Democrats - although there is a new poll over the weekend from ABAC which seemingly contradicts the idea that people want the Democrats to form the government - a little teaser for the 14:00 post. There are some other ABAC polls from last week which look at who people want to be PM - more on those around lunchtime.

UPDATE: Abhisit it is (235 votes for Abhisit vs 198 for Pracha; 3 abstained)

Abhisit of the Democrats vs Pracha (of Puea Paendin who Puea Thai is supporting). The Nation has it live Abhisit leads 180 to 150 at 10:43 am - Abhisit looks a little more nervous than expected.

The Bangkok Post:

The Democrat party-led alliance kept MPs in safe places yesterday to make sure they were not lured away to the rival camp led by the Puea Thai party ahead of today's vote in parliament for prime minister.

Reports of huge sums of money being spent to stop Democrat leader Abhisit Vejjajiva becoming the next government leader prompted the party's allies to gather their members in well-guarded places yesterday.

Nonetheless, Puea Thai executives expressed confidence their choice for prime minister, Puea Pandin leader Pracha Promnok, would beat Mr Abhisit by about 10 votes.

A breakaway faction from the dissolved People Power party led by Buri Ram politician Newin Chidchob and four former government coalition parties - Chart Thai Pattana (the re-formed Chart Thai), Ruam Jai Thai Chart Pattana, Puea Pandin and Phum Jai Thai (the re-formed Matchimathipataya party) - have reaffirmed their support for Mr Abhisit.

A source from the Friends of Newin camp said rooms in the Pullman Hotel at Soi Rang Nam were arranged for its members to stay the night ahead of the extraordinary House session to choose a new prime minister today.

Its members were not permitted to carry mobile phones or use telephones, and were to travel together in the same vehicle to attend the House meeting to further limit their chances of coming into contact with "money politics", the source said.

A Puea Pandin source, at the same time, said 17 Puea Pandin party members were put in a safe place at a hotel under the care of party spokesman Chaiyos Jiramethakarn yesterday.

The source added influential Puea Pandin chief adviser Vatana Asavahame, a fugitive convicted of corruption in the Klong Dan scandal, had also given assurances to Democrat secretary-general Suthep Thaugsuban that he supported Mr Abhisit as prime minister.

A Chart Thai Pattana source said its members were also lodged at a hotel in the Lan Luang area for the night before the vote today.

Suwat Liptapanlop, a key figure in Ruam Jai Thai Chart Pattana, and party secretary-general Pradit Phataraprasit were each looking after four MPs.

Pol Gen Pracha had met former police chief Pol Gen Pao Sarasin to seek advice on the political situation, a close associate said

BP: Afraid of money politics (i.e when the other side is using money and Cabinet positions)? Or afraid of the MPs getting angry calls from constitutents? Were they permitted to listen to Thaksin's speech on Saturday? 

btw, what is Suthep talking to fugitives for? Aren't these off limits?

Last week, Crispin had an article entitled "A right royal silence" in Asia Times - he kindly mentions this blog. Was going to link to the article and extract parts of it, but someone told me it was blocked in Thailand so did not want to do link or extract it. Have this weekend also tried to access the article through a Thai ISP (True) and am unable to access it.*

BP: BP is somewhere between Crispin and The Economist's view - would explain more but...

*You get the white screen of death. Simply nothing loads or appears on the screen. Nevertheless, the text is there and you can confirm this by looking at the page's "source" ( in IE, go to the "View" option in the menu bar and then "Source") and compare it with the google cache version of the article. Is this a preventative measure by Asia Times, a new form of "protecting Thais from national security threats" by the MICT, or something by True? Or maybe it is Thanong-lenses playing tricks on BP's perception (ie given the reality that there is no lese majeste law in Thailand)?

AP:

Enough gloom and doom: There's a prediction from a leading color source that cheerful and sunny yellow will be the influential color of 2009.

Pantone, which provides color standards to design industries, specifically cites "mimosa," a vibrant shade of yellow illustrated by the flowers of some mimosa trees as well as the brunch-favorite cocktail, as its top shade of the new year. In general, Pantone expects the public to embrace many tones of optimistic yellow.

"I think it's just the most wonderful symbolic color of the future," says Leatrice Eiseman, executive director of the Pantone Color Institute. "It's invariably connected to warmth, sunshine and cheer — all the good things we're in dire need of right now."

In the spring fashion collections previewed earlier in the fall for retailers and editors, pops of yellow brightened the runways of Carolina Herrera — who called her favorite shade marigold — Badgley Mischka, Zac Posen and Michael Kors, among others. Kors even included a retro yellow polka-dot bikini that clearly harkened back to a more upbeat time.

The fashion world first embraced orange a few years ago and that has evolved into yellow, which had already been gaining popularity in the home market, too.

"People know yellow lightens up the atmosphere," Eiseman says.

Home-goods companies based in Paris and Milan, Italy, have already been heavily influenced by yellow, says Tom Mirabile, vice president of global trends and design at Lifetime Brands, Inc., whose portfolio includes Cuisinart, Farberware and Pfaltzgraff

BP: So will yellow make a comeback in 2009 in Thailand?

h/t to the reader who pointed this article out.

Matichon quotes Chalerm as stating publicly today that he wants Newin to return 30 million baht tat Newin borrowed from Chalerm. He  was given to Newin at the house of PAD leader Sondhi L 12 years ago. He also said that Banharn had given 100  million baht to Newin, but he was unaware of the details.

BP: The way that money flows in politics in Thailand could easily make this true. How will PAD supporters take the news? Then again Sondhi L's recent conversion away from Thaksinocracy may mean he is absolved of all sins and knowledge of such sins.

The Thai Rath article states that Big Jiw (AKA former Army C-in-C and PM Chavalit) is worried about the military's interference in politics and it has made him unhappy (mai sabai jai). His close aide พล.ท.พิรัช สวามิวัศดุ์ (นายทหารคนสนิท/Tor Sor) did a radio interview yesterday stating the military has gone too far in openly/clearly interfering with politics (กองทัพเข้าไปยุ่งการเมืองชัดเจนมากไป). He says the military is probably unaware of the extent of the criticism. Chavalit has warned them, but it is unsure whether they know or it. What was done is unrelated to the affairs of the military so it should be left to politicians. The military needs to take a step back as it has caused the military damage.

BP: It would be surprising if the aide did the interview on his own accord (and a day has passed with no different comment from Chavalit). These are strong words although the going too far and openly interfering doesn't suggest that they are opposed to interference, but are more concerned about the damage to the army. Chavalit has certainly changed his tune from the interview when he called on the military to stage a coup to solve the political problems, maybe it was a dig at Anupong after Anupong criticised him.

Matichon also reports that an army cadet classmate of Anupong (and thus also a classmate of Thaksin) and a former Secretary-General of the Defence Ministry has also publicly come out to criticise Anupong stating that the going on TV calling on Somchai to resign/dissolve parliament was ok, but this is too much. He says that he is unhappy (mai sabai jai) and as a friend he didn't believe that Anupong would do something like that as it directly involved the military in politics and causes damage.

BP thinks that Anupong has done an exemplary job (not perfect, but in the circumstances much more than hoped or expected) in regards to the Deep South and at the beginning of his term in office of trying to stay out of politics as opposed to his predecessor,*  but that Anupong has put himself squarely in the middle of things by inviting all the political leaders of the likely Democrat-led government to his house (ie except from Puea Thai and Pracharaj) and then getting caught in doing so. The denials have been Anupong only provided advice don't make sense because he could have then invited all the political leaders and not just the ones who will join the coalition. Puea Thai are now directly attacking the army and getting a little help from senior military people. Yes, both have Thaksin connections (although Chavalit also has stronger Prem connections), but such strongly-worded critcisims of Anupong and given their seniority it is a blow to Anupong. You will note the lack of strident defence of Anupong from others.

h/t to a reader for some pointers.

*how much time is Anupong now devoting to matters in the Deep South? One has to think very little.

Reuters:

"We want Thaksin back to help solve the sagging economy," Bangkok hotel employee Huan Petchtom said, complaining her hotel had had few guests after the anti-government protesters laid seige to two Bangkok airports earlier this month.

BP: There was another quote from a hotel management student in another article who attended the UDD rally and was worried about his job prospects.The occupancy rate in one five star hotel in Bangkok was recently in the single digits. Someone who BP knows has also shown BP an e-mail of another large hotel which had an occupancy rate in the single digits as well. The question is, who will they blame? PAD? Thaksin/PPP? Others?