Have already blogged on Banharn publicly distancing the Chat Thai Pattana candidate in the Sri Saket by-election from Newin, Matichon quotes Democrat List MP Suthat Ngernmuen (he is a Northeast party list zone MP - yeah one of those rare Democat Isan MPs) as stating that the reason the Chat Thai Pattana candidate lost was the failed strategy of senior CTP executives like Banharn and Somsak P (deputy leader ?). He also states:
"The victory in the two Isan by-elections shows that Thaksin is still popular, but the important strategy used by Puea Thai in campaigning was the "betrayor" charge. The reason is that Isan people like straightforward [candidates] and honesty. Therefore, just Puea Thai spreading news that that the Chat Thai Pattana candidate was Newin's protege was enough to cause villagers not to vote for that candidate" said Suthat
"การชนะการเลือกตั้งซ่อมในภาคอีสาน 2 ครั้งซ้อน แสดงให้เห็นว่า กระแสความนิยมตัวพ.ต.ท.ทักษิณ ชินวัตร อดีตนายกรัฐมนตรียังดีอยู่ แต่กลยุทธสำคัญที่เพื่อไทยใช้หาเสียงคือ ข้อหาทรยศ เนื่องจากคนอีสานเป็นคนตรงไปตรงมา และชอบความซื่อสัตย์ ดังนั้นพรรคเพื่อไทยแค่ปล่อยข่าวว่าผู้สมัครของชาติไทยพัฒนาเป็นเด็กฝากเลี้ยงของนายเนวิน ชิดชอบ ก็ทำให้ชาวบ้านไม่เลือกแล้ว" นายสุทัศน์ กล่าว
BP: Yes that Democrat MP is the same one who ate dinner with Somchai W the other day, but we already have reported statements of Banharn too. Newin seems fairly toxic in some parts of the Northeast now. He will need to find some way to change this as if remains the same at the time of the next general election, Bhum Jai may not do as well as expected.
Yep Big few weeks for Thaksins party in the great swings and roundabouts roller coaster. Bjt now look like being a small to medium sized party at the next election with PTP and Dems (barring disolutions, coups or constituitonal crisis) being the big two after the next election with probably no party able to garner an overall majority again.
Newin is seemingly stuck in his Buri Ram (and Surin?) stronghold. A rethink of his strategy mauy now be needed. No doubt he can deny PTP a few dozen seats but that seems about it right now. It could be time for him to get on board with the Dems land for the farmers plan although that would mean abandoning a few canvassers and allied middle men with particular interests in the Isaan. O)n the other hand it would also hit the canvassers and middle men of PTP in the Isaan if the logging etc land suddenly got distributed to farmers rather than business concerns. Will Newin move the radical way or stick to the old methods? It will be interesting to see.
It looks like the current government will be around a while longer than expected right now. Unless of course the EC wipe out their majority, someone decides to replace the system with a new politcal one or a whole swathe of defections occur. Likely though none of the ablove will happen and it will be weak government as usual until the next election and probably after it.
It seems there are no knock out blows for anyone, nobody is really interested in national reconcilliation and that nobody is even talking of the most obvious divide - the regional one.
BP:
An important story I think being missed are 3 factors that I think played heavily against this government and BJT in particular.
1. BJT's perceived corruptedness. Poor people in the provinces are seeing incredible sums of money going toward BJT members that are in this government. This only goes back to the notion that they turned their back on Thaksin for greed and enriching themselves.
2. The perceived failure of Abhisit to dish out fair 'justice'. From what I have understood from the people I know who voted in the Si Sa Ket election, they went against the government candidate because they wanted to send a message to the government that justice needs to be dished out to the 'yellow' shirts as well as the 'red' shirts. No one likes what happened in Songkran, its true, and almost everybody believes that those responsible should go to jail.... but that doesn't mean that they liked what happen with Suvarnbhumi either, and failure to catch them means that there is no difference between this government and Thaksin.
3. Thailand has for the last 3+ years been teaching 'sufficiency'. There is a disconnect when the government tells people to practice 'sufficiency' and then passes that 800 for 'emergency' spending via a decree....
Oddly, I believe these elections have strengthened Abhisit's hand in the short-run (I believe Suranand said the same), and that now there is a window in which Abhisit should use to show he is 'in control' of BJT's corruptedness, and that he is willing to tackle corruption and justice.
However, I am still waiting for Abhisit to actually start to push his 'signature' issue during the election, which is free education and improve the standard of education in this country (which far lags China and India).... of course, I won't be holding my breath...
Some more very good analysis and commentary at Siam Report:
http://siamreport.blogspot.com/2009/06/si-saket-red-momentum.html