The Nation with an article where the sub-heading is "Boost for Democrat hopes of breakthrough in Northeast"
The unstinting welcome for Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva in Buri Ram yesterday has raised the Democrat Party's hopes of planting its flag in the stronghold of Newin Chidchob, a core leader of its coalition partner Bhum Jai Thai Party.
Though Abhisit's choice of Buri Ram as the first province on his tour of the northeastern region has aroused much controversy and conflict within his party, colleagues were confident the visit would boost his popularity, which is already high there.
Wongnongtaey, a senior figure in the ruling Democrat Party, described the trip as "very satisfactory" given the warm welcome the prime minister got from the locals.
Abhisit, however, said only: "The inspection of the area was fine" when questioned by reporters after returning to Bangkok in the evening.
Newin did not show up while Abhisit was in the province. Abhisit said Newin had not needed to as they had kept in phone contact.
A source close to Abhisit said Newin had stayed away because he did not want to be seen as trying to steal the show or invite criticism that the PM was visiting Newin's stronghold to boost his clout.
Democrat Party Ubon Ratchathani MP Supachai Srila said the party estimated that Abhisit's job-approval rating in the northeastern region was more than 70 per cent and the party was expected to win at least 15 parliamentary seats in the region in the next general election.
BP: Seriously? 70% his nationwide ratings are not even 70%. Talking up your chances can be expected, but this is just hyperbole. On the Democrat's chances in the Northeast, Korn said it best at the FCCT last year:
Question by Jonathan Head of BBC to Korn: Why are the Democrats always unable to win more votes in the Northeast?Answer by Korn: I can tell you what is not the issue. People like to divide the camps into rural and urban. The majority of the southern voters are rural. The popularity of Thaksin in the North and Northeast is undeniable. It is also undeniable that traditionally they have been less politically active then southerners. It is also undeniable that money politics is less prevalent. We we have less money than PPP. However I agree with Chris [Baker], money "is the price you pay to play the game but it doesn't dictate whether if you win or lose". "If a candidate today in Loei runs under the Democrat banner for him to try to win he would need to spend two or three times more than his PPP opponent in order to win and even then he still might lose.This is exactly what happened in the last election. "A number of former TRT MPs defected to Puea Paendin and they outpsent PPP three to one and they still lost". This goes along way to confirming what Chris said, but money is no longer determinative of your success. What Thaksin did was to make that connection and make it directly relevant to his target group. We are less afraid to compete against vote-buying than the buying of MPs. I still believe at the end of the day that if you sold your vote it is still your decision in the ballot box. However, it would be very ineffective for the Democrats to buy a Northeastern MP. Simply at the end of the day we cannot go against the will of the people and no amount of money will help
BP: To be honest, BP is unsure on what the long-term gain will be for the Dems by Abhisit's visit to Buriram. There is some limited short-term gain, but just look at the photo which accompanies The Nation's article with all the people lined up in a straight line along the road. They are just standing where they have been told to stand. Also see this video from Matichon, particularly the last couple of minutes, and see the lack of emotion on people's faces as Abhisit speaks.
Yes, Newin stayed away, but the visit was already associated with Newin and Bhum Jai Thai (Interior Minister and BJT Thai leader was right next to Abhisit).
The idea of Abhisit visiting the Northeast is a good idea on many levels, but it is the choosing of Buriram which makes the least sense politically. Yes, for security it makes sense, but even Surin or some other BJT province would be better and they could have ensured security given the thousands of security staff. Why not Ubon Ratchathani where the Democrats have a couple of MPs (it is the province on the right-hand side of the map next to Laos and Cambodia)? There would have been no link to Newin or Bhum Jai Thai. Wouldn't this have helped the Democrat's brand more? There best chance is not up the upper Northeast, it is the urban areas in the lower Northeast.* Not all the papers reported the visit as The Nation did, see Thailand Politics' post.
*Yes, yes, Buriram is part of the lower Northeast, but this is Newin country. At the 2007 General Election, the top 3 vote-getters in Buriram Constituency 1 where PPP candidates and all 3 got in the 76,000-79,000 range. As later in The Nation's article notes, this is the Constituency where the Democrats see they have a "very good chance" of winning, but the highest-placing Democrat in 2007 received only 18,500 votes. The only chance they have is if Newin hands the seat to them.
"Newin did not show up while Abhisit was in the province. Abhisit said Newin had not needed to as they had kept in phone contact".
You can just imagine the set-up: "OK, Khun PM - just let me know when you want my people to cheer and clap." Judging by reports of the crowd's non-reaction, maybe the cosy couple had network problems........
Noticed it as well, they look hot and bored to tears. They probably had to listen to it in order to get the free lunch afterwords.
Last week I had lunch with some women 2 from Buri Ram and one from close by. 2 were university graduates and one was not educated that well. You would think that the government and PM's approval rating would swing toward the government. NOPE. A big zero. Not one of them had a good thing to say about the Democrats or the PM. I may be having lunch with them tomorrow it will be interesting to see how excited they are about the alleged surge in support for the Democrats in Buri Ram.
This whole thing was just an orchestrated PM ploy and the Nation, no surprise, was sucked into the vortex.
At the end of the Matichon report Abhisit said in an interview before he got on the plane that Ubon is a future possibility depending on readiness of locations, including North and South.
นายอภิสิทธิ์ให้สัมภาษณ์ก่อนขึ้นเครื่อง ถึงกระแสข่าวในวันที่ 23 กรกฎาคมนี้ จะไปลงพื้นที่ จ.อุบลราชธานีว่า ขณะนี้อยู่ระหว่างการตรวจสอบกำหนดการ ขึ้นอยู่กับความพร้อมแต่ละพื้นที่ที่จัดมา รวมถึงภาคเหนือและภาคใต้ด้วย
a very good program right now on Thai PBS - about the REAL corruption BS side of the so called "self-sufficiency" so much pushed by Abhisit's gov. (in response to TV add where Abhisit talks about self-sufficiency).
the brief outline of what is being shown in the program:
gov. gave to each village those machines for ... drinking water - how the hell is that related to "self-sufficiency" ?! people are giving interviews on #Thai PBS about the so called "self-sufficiency": "we are not buffaloes, we understand what's going on !" BUT ... when they are going to protest - they are being told that they'll be sued over "offending governor" - what a BS ! HUGE corruption in #Thailand. under the name of "self-sufficiency" present gov. MAKES MONEY for themselves ! they say to villagers : "here is the machine for drinking water, it's price is ... B350K" - while REAL price is only B38K ! so, WHO is getting those money ? not even to mention that these machines are totally USELESS for some Isaan villagers. because they say: we don't use this kind of machine, we have water in every house already. what we need - we've written in our request list. that is : buffaloes to plough the fields (because petrol is too costly to use tractors) and pigs to grow for meat... so, that's what we need - NOT these water machines ! this is simply ridiculously unbelievable - how this gov. is BS-ing people ! yet this PROPAGANDA add is continues being played on many TV channels in #Thailand - with #Abhisit talking about "self-sufficiency"
Another group of 7 women - 5 from Buri Ram one was from Surin one from the North. Straw poll - Democrats zero - PTP/Thaksin 7.
Although this isn't all that scientific normally you can find someone that takes the other side in every debate but not this one so far.